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Messages - pleun

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1
On worldview, to the right of the screen there's a measuring tool where you can create a freeform by selecting random points on the screen and it directly gives you the area.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 07, 2020, 09:18:24 AM »

Light (or lack thereof) is constant. Both are above 0C and will melt. Will they melt at the same rate ? No. The tray in your closet will melt faster.

Yet the temperature just above the icecubes will be the same in both cases. You just took down your own argument...

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 01, 2020, 09:34:14 AM »
it's actually bad for the ice I think, if extent stays high in this weather.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 29, 2020, 01:27:57 PM »
look at the past 24 hours video. it was blown away by wind.

5
Permafrost / Re: Arctic wildfires and their effect on sea ice
« on: June 27, 2020, 02:29:45 AM »
Sure looks worse than previous years. Mark Parrington from Cams is tweeting about this :

https://twitter.com/m_parrington/status/1276159861898838016?s=19



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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 17, 2020, 12:16:50 PM »
I can't quantify this, but I don't remember seeing as much rain fall on the ice as we've seen this past 6 weeks.  I'd love to see how 2m dew points over the ice compare to past years, but can't find that data.

Yes, I've searched for some graphs as well, but can't find any. Of course, dewpoint is easily calculated from RH and 2m temp.

7
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: June 09, 2020, 10:14:17 PM »
Phoenix, just let it go.

Last year, there was a guy who you remind me a lot of who argued until he was blue in the face that a tidal wave was going to come crashing through the Bering Strait and submerge all of the ice in the ESS.

The discussion was nonsense and drove people like me away. 

I don’t know if you are the same guy or not, but your arrogance and confrontational attitude is the same. 

Yes, I know who you mean. His name was Rich. Wouldn't it be something if he were to rise here again from the ashes so to speak, just like that mythical creature, can't remember it's name now...

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: PIOMAS 2020 September Prediction
« on: June 07, 2020, 01:50:39 PM »
Phoenix, I have a hypothetical question for you :
What would happen if we were to start the melting season in March with no peripheral sea ice, just the Cab volume.
In your opinion, what would the outcome be in September?

I think we should begin by noting that "melting season" as defined by the agencies or ASIF conforms to the 2D paradigm of ice. The 2D and 3D max do not arrive simultaneously and the core of the Arctic is still gaining volume in Mid-March.

The next question involves whether this hypothetical ice configuration takes place with all other variables being similar to 2020 or are we describing the future where AGW has advanced to arrive at this scenario organically and ocean / surface temperatures are at a much higher baseline than today ?

Your hypothetical scenario is not so hypothetical. It's where we are heading. This thread aims to present the case that the trajectory to your scenario is slower than the linear assumption.

Since your question is off-topic on this thread and I don't want to dilute the message here with a tangential conversation, I would invite you to find a more suitable thread or open a new one.

I sense a lot of evading tactics here.  The question was : what would be the September outcome if there were no peripheral ice in March, all else being equal to last year. I don't ask for a specific area or volume, just a general idea of what the status of the ice would be.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: DHACSOO - A Durable Arctic Hypothesis
« on: June 07, 2020, 11:51:13 AM »
Phoenix, I have a hypothetical question for you :
What would happen if we were to start the melting season in March with no peripheral sea ice, just the Cab volume.
In your opinion, what would the outcome be in September?

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 07, 2020, 11:50:03 AM »
Phoenix, I have a hypothetical question for you :
What would happen if we were to start the melting season in March with no peripheral sea ice, just the Cab volume.
In your opinion, what would the outcome be in September?

Interesting and useful hypothetical, but off topic for this thread.

I apologize and will move it to the DHACSOO thread

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 04, 2020, 12:33:40 PM »

I think the place where we are easily misled is the constant messenging about Arctic amplification which does not highlight an important exception. AGW is not materially increasing average surface temperatures N of 80N during peak melting season. What's happening outside the core is interesting, but largely irrelevant to projecting the season minimum.

the fact that temperature doesn't go up does not mean that there's no energy exchange

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic energy balance
« on: June 02, 2020, 10:56:57 PM »
@bintho : in the above calculations, I believe I miss the energy of condensation of the water vapour in the air mass. The air is likely to reach dew point on the ice I think?

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic energy balance
« on: May 29, 2020, 02:29:11 PM »
More detailed about WAA.

This energy may be received by ice or dissipate into space.

Or simply stay in the airmass. Think you should calculate the energy difference between two points in time.

14
Consequences / Re: 2020 ENSO
« on: May 06, 2020, 03:10:56 PM »
talk about runaway conditions...

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: April 30, 2020, 03:42:47 PM »
the compaction graph from cryospherecomputing.tk

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Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: April 18, 2020, 11:48:59 PM »



In a place like Siberia, you may have a 100k km2 land area immediately adjacent to the Arctic where the 2m air temp is all heated to 20C+.

One does not see 2m air temperatures over the open ocean approaching 20C in areas adjacent to the Arctic ice. The 2m air temps over the open ocean are moderated by the sea surface temperature and by definition the SST's adjacent to the ice are close to zero C. 


But heat is not only temperature. I think humid air over the ocean packs a bigger punch than warmer dry air.

17
The forum / Re: Who would like to take over the ASIF?
« on: April 09, 2020, 08:39:07 PM »
If we are to have rules, I'd like to see clearer definitions.


if we need rules to tell us how to behave, then we're in deep trouble anyway...

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: March 21, 2020, 03:38:22 PM »
Better keep away from the weed in the morning...

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: March 08, 2020, 11:35:13 AM »
schauer are showers  (buien)

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Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: January 25, 2020, 11:31:31 AM »
don't remember, but it was a very respectable source.

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Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: January 25, 2020, 11:11:36 AM »
no worries. I just read that we are actually below rcp 2.6 so nothing can happen...

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 22, 2020, 01:23:12 PM »
usually around the date of the maximum ?  see post above yours.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 05, 2020, 01:27:13 PM »
All politicians lie to the public. it's in their nature and inherent of their function. But I think there are two subgroups : one that has the publics best interest at heart and one that has a different agenda, usually their own benefit. It is the latter group that people like Archimid and myself have a problem with...

24
Science / Re: AMOC slowdown
« on: December 31, 2019, 01:20:24 PM »
different article about the same research :

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-56435-6

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Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 27, 2019, 10:52:23 AM »

These high gains in extent and area are becoming an event.
But too lazy to look for the why of it all. Armageddon can wait until 2020.

Just wondering if low snowcover in lower latitudes and Europe suggests WACC is currently in reverse, i.e. extra cold in high latitudes, warmth in lower latitudes.
________________________________________________________________________

wouldn't it have something to do with the shape of the stratospheric polar vortex which is divided into 3 parts for some time now ? just wondering ...

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 16, 2019, 08:46:17 PM »
Big spike up on the dmi north of 80 graph!

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 27, 2019, 10:03:33 AM »
found this :

HEADLINE: Atmospheric Angular Momentum (AAM), a measure of how fast the atmosphere is spinning relative to the Earth's rotation, is a complex variable that can offer insight to particular flow configurations within the atmosphere.

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The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: September 25, 2019, 06:14:31 PM »
It's your thread Tom. I think I speak for everyone if I say that you're allowed to drop anything you like in there...

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Arctic sea ice / Re: Off Topic
« on: September 25, 2019, 08:09:12 AM »
Think that has nothing to do with the topic Sidd.

30
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: September 24, 2019, 10:36:28 PM »
37 38 as of 4:25 PM local time (I may have missed a couple). The day is still young.

Maybe we could set up a poll and bet on it?

31
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: September 24, 2019, 09:55:12 PM »
I was about to say something about it...
Not funny anymore

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 15, 2019, 11:01:51 AM »
lol, I think he meant this one :

Don Vito Corleone: What have I ever done to make you treat me so disrespectfully? If you’d come to me in friendship, then this scum that ruined your daughter would be suffering this very day. And if by chance an honest man like yourself should make enemies, then they would become my enemies. And then they would fear you.

The Godfather

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« on: August 23, 2019, 11:51:26 AM »
how can someone malform his own poll ? TS was looking for specific information and gave specific directions on how to get this. Think we should respect that.

now look what happened...

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 12, 2019, 06:15:59 PM »
+1

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Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: August 05, 2019, 08:52:17 AM »
just seach for it on youtube

36
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: July 25, 2019, 02:59:29 PM »
ah, thanks for the heads up

37
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: July 25, 2019, 02:39:05 PM »
almost 43C  now in the middle of holland ! allthough i get the feeling that the sensor might have melted...


38
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: July 24, 2019, 08:31:26 PM »
Wow,  and people have to go through that each time they  want to know how warm it is outside?

That's amazing!

39
no no, you hold the knob fixed and turn the amplifier to the left. so it's the same as the tap again.
see ?

40
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: July 24, 2019, 07:14:27 PM »
Looks like Paris hit at least 102F today.

how much is that in proper degrees ?

41

Note Spitzbergen is the name of the largest island in the Svalbard archipelago.

It is spitsbergen in dutch or jagged mountains.
(spitzen are ballet shoes). which  brings me to my own stupid question:

why does the dutch word ijsberg translate to iceberg while a regular "berg" (made out of rock) is a mountain or hill ?


42
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: July 24, 2019, 04:54:08 PM »
lol. you set the pressure at 1013 inches. exactly the same way I fucked up a few posts up.
you have to select the rightmost circle for mbar

43
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: July 24, 2019, 04:31:46 PM »
vox
I've never trusted heat index to equate with wet bulb. I think they include things such as wind velocity, but I'm not sure.
I'll compare the French site's "wet bulb" with Wunderground's "feels like" temperatures.

there's also a WBGT (wet bulb globe temp). this also takes more factors into account. see:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_globe_temperature



44
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: July 24, 2019, 02:02:41 PM »
here's a french site that has a 3 day forecast :

https://meteologix.com/fr/model-charts/sui-hd/france/wet-bulb-temperature/20190724-1300z.html

I have not checked it out tho.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 23, 2019, 08:07:26 PM »
After reading some of the IPCC reports I think it is the correct approach, it just so happens that Trump has no common sense...

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 23, 2019, 06:32:20 PM »

In the last interglacial, temperatures in the Arctic were much higher than today, and the world didn't end.


The world won't end. Just the humans and most species on it...

So you clearly didn't read the IPCC report that I linked to.

I must confess I did not, because I have more faith in my own gut instinct and common sense.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 23, 2019, 06:00:31 PM »

In the last interglacial, temperatures in the Arctic were much higher than today, and the world didn't end.


The world won't end. Just the humans and most species on it...

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 23, 2019, 04:34:47 PM »
First, you need to agree on the definition of a BOE. especially with regard to the timeframe.

49
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: July 23, 2019, 12:02:38 PM »
Indeed, I didn't realize we were so close to a wet bulb temp of 37C ...

edit : sorry, miscalculated. it's more like 27C

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 23, 2019, 10:56:02 AM »
I think maybe Archimid has the mental image in his head of a kettle of water on the stove with a lump of ice in the middle. Not much will happen to the water untill the ice is gone.

I don't know how far you can extend this metafore to the arctic. Is the heat that's entering via the Chuckchi dissipating towards the cab ? Would the Chuckchi be 20 degrees allready if there were no ice in the cab ?

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