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Messages - Neven

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 23, 2019, 11:51:23 AM »
Thanks, pauldry600!

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 22, 2019, 03:11:51 PM »
I also use https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/sea-ice-concentration/ and its working OK (Windows 10 and Google)

But the daily SIC maps are all stuck at April 18. The archives are off-line as well. This will probably soon get fixed. If not, I'll shoot off a mail.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 22, 2019, 12:30:00 PM »
The Uni Bremen SIC maps page seems to have disappeared. Does anyone know if it has been moved?

4
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: April 22, 2019, 12:22:28 PM »
This is definitely bad propaganda for Tesla, but what a coincidence, eh?

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 21, 2019, 11:05:07 PM »
Yikes!

8 days from now. Please, try to emphasize when you post forecasts beyond 6 days, because they're unreliable, and the writing on that map is small.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 21, 2019, 09:33:50 PM »
It seems that in the last week or two the movement of thick old ice towards the Atlantic has stalled. Good news, especially if it continues like this.

Maybe not so much towards Fram directly, but the forecast is for some ice to get shoved towards Franz Josef Land a couple of days from now. Pressure remains (very) high over the Pacific side, with a very narrow band of isobars in the coming three days, which will inevitably continue to pull the ice in the Beaufort Sea westwards, furthering disintegration in Amundsen Bay, and causing more open water that I'm not sure will re-freeze that well anymore (see animation of the region for the past 5 days, below the forecast).

I expect this weather to abate come May, as it usually does, but if it doesn't, the Pacific side is going to take a serious beating.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 21, 2019, 12:33:12 AM »
Ice and snow, 2016 vs 2019:

8
Policy and solutions / Re: Space colonization
« on: April 20, 2019, 09:44:08 PM »
neven:
no.
I specifically said this is very unlikely as an Astronomy BS from what I learned in my courses. I did not mention Creationism.

OK, thanks. I misinterpreted.

9
Policy and solutions / Re: Space colonization
« on: April 20, 2019, 03:08:40 PM »
Tom, is this an invitation for a discussion about creation?

10
The rest / Re: Climate change activists should not fly
« on: April 19, 2019, 09:26:01 PM »
That's not true either, but if you don't like it here, you can go find another forum. There are millions out there.

11
The rest / Re: Climate change activists should not fly
« on: April 19, 2019, 10:23:06 AM »
No, that wasn't it.

12
The rest / Re: Climate change activists should not fly
« on: April 19, 2019, 09:41:57 AM »
Years ago I read something about trains needing a lot more infrastructure than planes, but I've forgotten what the conclusion of the piece was.

13
The rest / Re: Club of Rome World model
« on: April 18, 2019, 11:18:11 PM »
Please, don't open a thread, just to ask a question. In fact, don't open threads for a while.

14
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: April 18, 2019, 09:03:57 PM »
Good for you, Josh!

15
Walking the walk / Re: When was the last flight you took?
« on: April 18, 2019, 11:35:53 AM »
I too find I am driving more than I wish, since my urban farm is a couple miles from my home, and various heavy materials need to be transported...and, I'm getting old, fat and lazy :/

Same here. Bought an EV, driving more now (I knew we would be driving more, hence the EV).

Another area where we're failing, is the middle-sized dog, eating more meat than the whole family combined.

Clothes will always be a problem, even though we buy almost everything second-hand.

Last time I've flown, was in 2002, to India. Didn't know about AGW then.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: Are 3 dimensions better than 2?
« on: April 18, 2019, 09:51:23 AM »
I had hoped this thread would slowly disappear. I'm going to give the process a nudge by locking it. If anyone wants to see it re-opened for a continuation of this fascinating discussion  ::) , write me a PM.

17
The rest / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: April 18, 2019, 09:45:16 AM »
I think it's more like it doesn't matter what Bernie says because their entire viewing audience will vote Trump regardless.

It all depends on whether people associate Trump with the swamp, or whether they believe the lie that he is some outsider upsetting the establishment. That's what makes Russiagate so monumentally stupid, but it was probably planned that way. The goal is to keep real progressives out.

I think that if Sanders can't be intimidated or co-opted to play along, they will cheat him again.

18
The rest / Re: Climate on Reddit
« on: April 18, 2019, 09:37:27 AM »
I'm with oren:

Tim - thanks for the elaborate explanation of what has been bothering me almost from the get-go.
5to10 - while I appreciate your position on the matter, could you please tone down the inappropriate language?

I must admit I've also been a bit suspicious of Tom_Mazanec quite soon after he registered, but it's always possible that a person is genuine.

I don't know why any paid trolls would come to this forum to disrupt it. Maybe some fanatical climate risk deniers with sadistic tendencies, but paid ones?

19
The rest / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: April 17, 2019, 10:38:53 PM »
Sanders might manage it if enough people are truly concerned about healthcare costs and higher education access, but a lot of them will have to look through the media "socialism" haze to get there.

Fox let Sanders explain what socialism is. I'm not sure if this is what Fox envisaged:



At the same time, I'm sure that the people at Fox knew what to expect. So, I have no idea why they did this.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: Are 3 dimensions better than 2?
« on: April 17, 2019, 10:11:12 PM »
The discussion here is related to Arctic sea ice, not to Antarctic land ice. GRACE has been and still is mentioned in many threads, such as the Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE thread.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: Are 3 dimensions better than 2?
« on: April 17, 2019, 09:42:13 PM »
Wrong thread. GRACE doesn't measure Arctic sea ice volume.

22
The rest / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: April 17, 2019, 07:57:02 PM »
If only Biden was running.

Why isn't he (so far) though? Any theories?

I agree with Kat that Biden wants it to be given to him, because he's so special.

But as Kyle Kulinski says: Just as with Clinton, as soon as he starts talking at rallies, etc., his numbers will go down inevitably. That's because he's a neoliberal, a Republican in Democrat's clothing, and people see through it.

23
The forum / Re: Suggestions
« on: April 17, 2019, 07:46:24 PM »
Okay, I'll try and find where this can be adjusted in the admin panel.

edit: Found it and disabled it.

24
The forum / Re: Suggestions
« on: April 17, 2019, 06:14:30 PM »
If there is a 120 day limit for old threads, the search results should not jump all over the forums history.

There's no limit, it's just a warning that you don't have to abide.

Try to do what results in the least amount of work for Neven.  ;)

25
Sono Motors have announced the partner who is going to build the Sion (the goal is at least 260 thousand in the coming 8 years)! The company is called NEVS (I kind of like that name  ;) ) and they're in Sweden. They've also announced that it will take longer to bring the Sion to market, second half of 2020.

Here's a video:



I hope they can make it for the promised price of 25.5K. I will definitely buy one then, and hopefully still get some form of subsidy in Austria.

26
Walking the walk / Re: When was the last flight you took?
« on: April 17, 2019, 12:53:50 PM »
If you do whatever you can in other areas, and you absolutely have to fly for work/science, I don't think you should be too hard on yourself. But of course, it's a process and so this is just another area where improvements must be made, especially if the work/science is more destructive than contributing to society.

27
The rest / Re: Climate change activists should not fly
« on: April 17, 2019, 12:51:47 PM »
would those interested please debate abortion on some other thread ?

Or maybe not anywhere? I've seen enough of it already to get mighty tired.

Tom_Mazanec, keep the religious stuff reserved for Sunday Mass. This forum is AGW-focused.

28
AOC killed Amazon's HQ2 in NYC. She does not understand basic economics. Subsidies were to be given but the revenue generated from 40K new jobs at $100K avg salary a yr would have more than outpaced and given massive new revenue stream to LIC. It was a total disaster and it was largely her fault.

What I've seen about that story, was that Amazon was playing games, trying to get something for free, and as an added bonus all the development plans of major cities around the US for free. As for AOC's involvement, I don't believe for one second she has as much power as you imply. So, this is basically a smear, which convinces me even more that the US needs 1000 AOCs to really start making a difference.

But AOC is not running for the White House, so please, leave the Fox-smears where you found them, thanks.

29
The rest / Re: How could I have done this better?
« on: April 17, 2019, 12:44:55 AM »
It was too difficult to follow the discussions you copypasted in those PMs, because of formatting. So, I don't know what you could have done better, sorry.

I've stopped discussing with climate risk deniers a while ago. I now discuss with people who think they are serious about AGW, but aren't really.  ;)

30
Consequences / Re: World of 2030
« on: April 17, 2019, 12:36:43 AM »
Well, I am a short-term pessimist and long-term optimist. I think technology will catch up with the problem eventually.
I created two "Furry" backgrounds for my stories and role-playing. In the Mammaloids (currently being retconned) global warming is a second order issue...maybe a meter or two of sea level rise over the Third Millennium (the first order issue is Humanity fighting, and losing, a series of wars with genetically engineered anthropomorphic animals). In GURPS Aesop the year is 1994 but technology is at World War One levels, so global warming is hardly on the horizon (the anthropomorphic animals are magical in origin).

I think you meant to post this in the RHJunior Forum, but accidentally posted it here.

31
Science / Re: New models increase warming for doubled CO2
« on: April 17, 2019, 12:31:39 AM »
Don't open threads, just like that. This is just a comment, not a new subject for a thread. There are several sensitivity/ECS threads out there.

32
The rest / Re: Climate change activists should not fly
« on: April 17, 2019, 12:13:42 AM »
Quote
Well, I am not a climate change "activist" (though I am a bit of a prolife activist).

Prolife activists should not masturbate.  ;D

Correct.

Why? What does that have to do with pro-life?

33
Agreed, we need 1000 AOCs. The more diverse the people with principles we have, the better. Everything is better than Corporate Democrats.

BTW, is there snow in your head, bbr, and has spring started early where you live?

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April 2019)
« on: April 16, 2019, 11:33:00 PM »
Yes, let's all just shut up until Wip posts the mid-month numbers (I'm also very curious to see those).

35
There's a funny Twitter feed that spoofs Peter Daou, often mentioned by Jimmy Dore: Peter Douche's Liaison

36
The rest / Re: Climate change activists should not fly
« on: April 16, 2019, 08:30:52 PM »
Quote
Well, I am not a climate change "activist" (though I am a bit of a prolife activist).

Prolife activists should not masturbate.  ;D

37
The rest / Re: How could I have done this better?
« on: April 16, 2019, 04:27:08 PM »
Maybe not all of it.  :)

38
The rest / Re: How could I have done this better?
« on: April 16, 2019, 01:22:13 PM »
Well, it is a denier forum

In that case I'm definitely signing on there. How about copypasting some of the stuff you wrote here, and we'll tell you what you did wrong.  ;)

39
The rest / Re: Climate change activists should not fly
« on: April 16, 2019, 01:20:12 PM »
Anyone who is serious about AGW, should fly as little as possible, and never for a holiday. That's just common sense. I hear more and more people talking about 'flying shame', so that's great, because taboos are a good way to change cultures.

But it's also about ROI. If going somewhere to talk about AGW, convinces people to stop flying or save energy by other means, it's worth it. There are always exceptions to the rule.

41
Plastic Pelosi, enemy of the people, friend of the donors, corrupt to the core, only interested in obstructing the new generation and manipulating out-of-touch CNN seniors, rather having Trump as president than Sanders or Warren:








42
Arctic sea ice / Re: Glossary ... for newbies and others
« on: April 16, 2019, 10:17:42 AM »
I think there are more than one glacier threads to discuss this. This thread is for proposing new acronyms for the glossary (mostly focused on Arctic sea ice).

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April 2019)
« on: April 16, 2019, 10:16:19 AM »
Hi all. This is a new study that I am sure many on this forum will be interested in:

"Arctic sea ice volume variability over 1901–2010: A model-based reconstruction" (PIOMAS-20C): https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0008.1

Thanks!

From the abstract:

Quote
We compare the magnitude and patterns of sea ice variability between the first half of the 20th century (1901-1940) and the more recent period (1980-2010), both marked by sea ice decline in the Arctic. The first period contains the so-called Early Twentieth Century Warming (ETCW; ∼1920-1940) during which the Atlantic sector saw a significant decline in sea ice volume, but not in the Pacific sector. The sea ice decline over the 1979-2010 period is pan-arctic and six times larger than the net decline during the 1901-1940 period. Sea ice volume trends reconstructed solely from surface temperature anomalies are smaller than PIOMAS-20C suggesting that mechanisms other than warming, such as changes in ice motion and deformation, played a significant role in determining sea ice volume trends during both periods.

44
The rest / Re: How could I have done this better?
« on: April 16, 2019, 10:09:42 AM »
I can only access that forum by registering which I'm not going to do.

In general, I think you need to have a comprehensive world view that makes sense in all circumstances, because you can only explain something well if you understand it well. It can't all be doom and gloom, there has to be some light at the end of the tunnel. And you need to realise that you probably won't convince or change the minds of those you argue with, but you may point those that are lurking in the right direction (if your direction is the right one, that is).

45
The rest / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: April 16, 2019, 12:04:35 AM »
My goodness, is this real or fake news?

46
The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: April 15, 2019, 11:37:49 PM »
If the majority of the media were to speak the truth like this, how much difference would it make would it make, would that be enough and if so how much culpability do the media have?

We must not talk about this, because Trump.

I watched a film this evening, maybe I shouldn't have. It's called Kill the Messenger and is based on the story of Gary Webb, an investigative journalist who broke the story that the CIA facilitated cocaine imports into the USA, while the dealers in exchange supported the Contras in Nicaragua, the idea being that this was the only way to make sure The Russians (there they are again) couldn't spread communism around Central America, after US Congress had restricted direct support.

This is Gary Webb, who allegedly shot himself in the head twice, seven years after writing the story that more or less ended his career:



How much damage Cold War thinking/conditioning has done around the world... And much progress hasn't been made since, as we have just seen with the Russiagate-scandal.

47
Sanders fights back a bit against those who demand unity and then smear progressives:


48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The Rammb Slider Thread
« on: April 15, 2019, 10:02:15 PM »
Larger files cost more energy. I'm neurotic when it comes to that kind of stuff. In the greater scheme of things, it doesn't matter all that much. But it does matter to some of those people who don't have limitless bandwidth at their disposal, so I try to keep files as small as possible.

49
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: April 15, 2019, 06:07:38 PM »
What I don't understand, is how the 35K Model 3 isn't profitable. I mean, didn't that Munro guy and some Germans take the car apart and estimate the cost of production, which was substantially lower than 35K?

Here I found something from earlier this year:

Quote
Speaking of costs, one of the more interesting parts comes when the group starts discussing profit margins. Munro estimates the base $35,000 Model 3 can hit an 18 percent gross margin from the Fremont factory. He had previously stated the big-battery variants could achieve over 30 percent margins. As impressive as that sounds, Munro becomes especially ebullient when discussing the potential for profit when the mid-size sedan begins to be produced in China.

He thinks there is a lot of room for reducing margins once production begins at Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai. He posits that if the automaker doesn’t repeat mistakes made State-side, there is an opportunity to remove 20 percent of the cost of its U.S. counterpart. And that’s apart from an additional $300 he believes could be removed from the car’s “body-in-white” if it’s re-engineered.

This, along with the removal of government penalties for foreign production and the huge popularity of the Tesla brand in China, makes it easy to understand why he exclaimed at one point, “When he takes it to China, he’s gonna make a gazillion bucks.”

Or this one, from October last year:

Quote
In their coverage of their first teardown of the Model 3 back in July, they confirmed a bottom-up cost to build the Model 3 is probably under $30,000, supporting Tesla’s estimate that it could achieve nearly a 30% margin on the car.

50
Stop blaming victims for doing this kind of stuff:


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