Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.

Messages - sidd

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 37
The rest / Re: Economic Inequality
« on: December 14, 2017, 09:18:12 PM »
World inequality report 2018 published, read all about it.

There is a reference there to a paper proposing a mechanism identification of individual ownership of financial assets:

Delphine Nougayrède, “Towards a Global Financial Register?


Antarctica / Re: EAIS Contributions to SLR by 2100
« on: December 14, 2017, 12:35:00 AM »
The last sentence of the Gulick paper reminds me of Mercer's warning about the 0C isotherm.

"Our findings suggest that ice in the ASB catchment may respond dramatically to anthropogenic climate forcing if regional atmospheric warming results in surface meltwater production."


The rest / Re: The problem of Corporate Democrats and how to kick them out
« on: December 13, 2017, 08:20:58 AM »
Two people control all the money ? explains why state parties were starved in 2016. Hopefully thats changing.


Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: December 13, 2017, 12:48:44 AM »
Gas replacing coal and mebbe nukes in Ohio, 955 and 900 MW gas plants goin in.

"Ohio’s energy landscape has changed dramatically since a decade ago, when the state got about 85 percent of its electricity from burning coal and much of the rest from nuclear plants. Ohio historically has been one of America’s most coal-reliant states.

Ohio now gets 59.8 percent of its electricity from coal, still well above the national average but much less than just a few years ago. Its percentage of electricity from natural gas now exceeds 24 percent, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration."


Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: December 13, 2017, 12:46:10 AM »
This is quite shocking. The bankruptcy of Westinghouse and Toshiba reveals a sordid nuclear plant construction process:

They were warned in 2011:

" ... a confidential report that warned six years ago that Westinghouse Electric wasn't prepared to build four new nuclear reactors in Georgia and South Carolina. "

Then they didnt use professional engineers:

" ...  construction drawings for the unfinished reactors were used at V.C. Summer without having them vetted and approved by professional engineers."

They slithered through a loophole:

"The state Board of Registration for Professional Engineers doesn't have the legal authority to inspect engineering worksites, and the NRC does not get into that level of detail in its review."

Understatement of the year:

"But you can’t build something as complicated as a nuclear reactor without drawings in hand."

"Westinghouse’s deputy general counsel drafted a 13-page legal opinion on May 7, 2012, arguing the engineering laws in South Carolina, Georgia and any other state where an AP1000 reactor was built didn't apply. They reasoned their federal licenses superseded state requirements."

"The need for professional engineers to approve all of the reactor designs was a waste of time and money, Westinghouse's attorneys said. "

" ... nearly every drawing was revised on site."

"The drawings, the audit found, were "often not constructible."  "

"Delays, incorrect parts, thousands of engineering changes, and billions of dollars in wasted money can be traced back to faulty drawings produced by unlicensed people ... "

" “It was a race to the bottom," said one engineer. "


I found this article by Mildenberger et al. quite informative on attitudes on climate change and renewable energy across political divides in the USA. Republicans are not as intransigent as is painted.

doi: 10.1007/s10584-017-2103-0

"There remain some states and congressional districts where a majority of registered Republicans think that human-caused global warming is happening or support climate reforms; for instance, a plurality of Republicans in every US state think that global warming is happening (although beliefs that it is human-caused are considerably lower). Republicans also hold heterogeneous climate policy preferences, including widespread support for renewable energy funding and carbon pollution regulation. We find similar levels of heterogeneity among Democrats for many climate attitudes, though substantially lower levels of heterogeneity for some policy support questions. However, since the partisan averageis substantially higher among Democrats, this variation may have less substantial implications for climate policymaking. Democrats in every district and every state think that global warming is happening and support climate and energy policies."

I attach Fig 1d which is the one that surprised me most, that of a majority of Republicans supporting regulation of CO2 as a pollutant.

Open access. Read all about it. Many interesting pictures.


The rest / Re: The problem of Corporate Democrats and how to kick them out
« on: December 12, 2017, 08:57:34 AM »
Re: Alcee Hastings D-FL

Any idea who replacement might be if Hastings quits ?


The rest / Re: The problem of Corporate Democrats and how to kick them out
« on: December 12, 2017, 08:50:42 AM »
"If Franken has to resign, why doesn't Trump ?"

Because Franken don't want to hang on thru an ethics investigation and sees that the Democratic Party wants him out, and, gasp, mebbe has a conscience ? While Trump don't care and the Republicans have his back ?

"If Democrats have to be "kicked out" for being too 'corporate' why not Republicans ? "

Absolutely. Have at it on a different thread.

"Why do we hold Democrats to a different standard than Republicans ?"

Perhaps because some of think there might still be some hope for the democratic party ?

"Why does this thread, which implies a double standard right in the title, even exist ?"

Because some of us are interested in kicking out democrats who work for corporations.


Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: December 12, 2017, 02:07:36 AM »
Coal leaves a lasting psychological imprint:

doi: 10.1037/pspp0000175

Obschonka et al. document the long lasting stamp of coal fulled industrial revolution on psychological characteristics of populations today. From the abstract:

"Analyzing data from England and Wales, we examine relationships between the historical employment share in large-scale coal-based industries (coal mining and steam-powered manufacturing industries that used this coal as fuel for their steam engines) and today’s regional variation in personality and well-being. Even after controlling for possible historical confounds (historical energy supply, education, wealth, geology, climate, population density), we find that the historical local dominance of large-scale coal-based industries predicts today’s markers of psychological adversity (lower Conscientiousness [and order facet scores], higher Neuroticism [and anxiety and depression facet scores], lower activity [an Extraversion facet], and lower life satisfaction and life expectancy)."

They see similar effects in the USA:

"Finally, a robustness check in the U.S. replicates the effect of the historical concentration of large-scale industries on today’s levels of psychological adversity."

From the body of the paper:

"In the U.K., the negative effect of large-scale industries was particularly robust (when controlling for historical confounds and using distance to coalfields as an instrument) in the prediction of lower Conscientiousness and well-being (life expectancy) and higher Neuroticism. In the U.S. robustness check, we found a similar pattern for lower Conscientiousness and higher Neuroticism in terms of region-level correlations (in addition to a negative correlation between large-scale industries and Agreeableness, which we did not find in the main U.K. analysis). The instrumental variable regression in the U.S. analysis confirmed the negative effect of large-scale industries on Neuroticism, and also revealed a negative effect of large-scale industries on well-being."

"However, one should stress that although the massive historical industrialization of these regions was often based on (spatial proximity to) coal resources, it was not necessarily the coal itself that created the local psychological climate; rather, it is likely that the stressful work and living conditions, together with selective migration patterns and lasting economic hardship, led to the collective psychological consequences observed in our study."


Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: December 12, 2017, 01:35:06 AM »
Windpower to shift southward: Karnauskas et al. find that windpower in the northern hemisphere will decrease, and may increase in the South, that central US windpowere will decrease in winter and all kinds of interesting things.

doi: 10.1038/s41561-017-0029-9

"Some of the projected regional changes in wind power noted above have a strong seasonal dependence, while others are manifest throughout the year (Supplementary Fig. 7). For example, the projected decreases in the central US, Japan and the horn of Africa occur primarily during boreal winter, the projected increases in eastern Brazil, Madagascar and the southern Arabian Peninsula are much stronger during austral winter, and the projected increases in southern mainland Africa and Southeast Asia are relatively constant throughout the year.

When integrated zonally (along lines of latitude; Fig. 3), a clear and asymmetric dependence on emissions scenario emerges. The total decrease in power across the northern mid-latitudes (30–65° N) is largely insensitive to emissions scenario. In contrast, the total increase across the southern tropical/subtropical band (10–30° S) only emerges under the RCP8.5 scenario. Thus, in a globally integrated sense, the decrease in the Northern Hemisphere is partially balanced by an increase in the Southern Hemisphere, but only under the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario."

They attribute the decrease in the North as caused by decreasing pole to equator temperature difference and increase in the south dues to land-sea warming gradients. I attach fig 3.


Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: December 12, 2017, 01:05:06 AM »
Reese et al on vulnerable spots for ice shelf thinning:

doi: 10.1038/s41558-017-0020-x

This is a theoretical study using finite element analysis, so awaits validation by observation. They find that there are certain spots on ice shelves, that when thinned, induce flow acceleration of grounded ice hundreds of kilometers away. They characterize the vulnerability by a "response ratio " . This is " the ratio between the total changes in annual mass flux across all grounding lines to the magnitude of locally applied thinning"

I attach fig 1d showing the Amundsen Sea region. Black is a ratio of 100%


Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: December 11, 2017, 01:24:48 AM »
Note that the Bernstein paper remarks that the SLR discount is more pronounced in real estate held as an investment compared to owner occupied properties. Presumably if you live by the coast you don't want to imagine being flooded out or your home losing value, while if the property is a second home or a rental or held as investment you tend to be more clear eyed about valuations.


The rest / Re: Economic Inequality
« on: December 10, 2017, 11:12:04 PM »
Kohler et al have a paper out linking rise in inequality to domestication of large mammals enabling more extensive agriculture and mounted warrior elites who could extend their sway over larger areas. They analyzed settlements using house size as proxy for wealth over a period beginning 11,000 years ago. I attach fig 1a) showing disparity in Gini coefficient between eurasia and americas. This disparity is attributed to lack of domesticable large mammals in the americas until european colonization. The last sentence of the article is:

"Even given the possibility that the Gini coefficients constructed here may underestimate true household wealth disparities, it is safe to say that the degree of wealth inequality experienced by many households today is considerably higher than has been the norm over the last ten millennia."

doi: 10.1038/nature24646


The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: December 10, 2017, 09:57:13 PM »
"if there is anybody here who actually has any idea what Mueller has discovered, it would be illegal for them to post it here, or anywhere else. "

Wasn't that settled in the Ellsberg case a long time ago? NYtimes and WaPo published leaked secret material and got away with it. As far as I know, the law has not substantially changed since.


The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: December 10, 2017, 12:59:49 AM »
Re: " The whole world loved the US, but now with Donnie all this has changed? "

I think reputation of the USA depends on who you ask. Chile, for example, would have a different opinion on when US reputation tanked than Canada.

But in my reading, it really crashed worldwide with the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The reelection of Bush the lesser in 2004 cemented it, and the 2008 economic debacle sealed it. In some rich western nations, Obama provided a temporary reprieve, until it became clear that no torturers or warmongers or bankers would be brought to justice under the new boss either, and the wars and the bombings would continue until everybody loved the USA again.

To quote a poet from long ago:

"Indeed, indeed, the Idols I have loved so long,
Have done my credit in men's eyes much wrong.
Drowned my Honour in a shallow Cup,
And sold my Reputation for a Song ! "

He was speaking of different idols and different cups, perhaps, but the sentiment carries.


Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: December 10, 2017, 12:06:10 AM »
Sea level rise coming home, the market is paying attention (Halleluia! who woulda thunk it. The real estate market, epecially on the coasts is a wretched hive of villainy))

The first sentence of the abstract is "Homes exposed to sea level rise (SLR) sell at a 7% discount relative to observably equivalent unexposed properties equidistant from the beach."


"This effect is primarily driven by properties unlikely to be inundated for over half a century, suggesting that it is driven by investors pricing long horizon concerns about SLR costs."

" ... the SLR exposure discount has increased substantially over the past decade, coinciding with both increased awareness and more pessimistic prognoses about the extent and speed of rising oceans. In particular, we document increased transaction volume and lower prices for sophisticated buyers following the significant revisions of the IPCC’s 2013 release, which increased SLR projects and awareness."

" ... properties that will experience ocean encroachment after 1 foot of global average sea level rise trading at a 22%, 2-3 feet at a 17% discount, 4-5 feet at a 9% discount and 6 feet at a 6% discount. [4] Using the long run discount rate provided by Giglio et al. (2014) and assuming complete loss at the onset of inundation, we estimate that markets expect 1 foot of sea level rise within 35 years, 2-3 feet within 45 years, 4-5 feet after 65 years, and 6 feet in 80 years. These results are consistent with the medium to high projections provided in Parris et al. (2012) and utilized by the NOAA in their 2012 report.

" ... exposed non-owner occupied properties trade at a 10% to 11% discount, relative to comparable non-exposed properties. "

" ... expectations regarding future SLR have steadily increased over the course of our sample period ... At the beginning of our sample in 2007 we find no significant difference between the prices of exposed and unexposed properties. By the end of our sample in 2016, exposed non-owner occupied properties are priced approximately 13.5% below comparable unexposed properties."

" ... we find evidence that the discount applied to non-owner occupied properties increased from 8.1% to 14.0% following the IPCC release.

" ... consistent with the idea that as information about SLR risks comes to light, exposed properties should be more likely to transact, we find that the annual probability of turnover is approximately 0.2 percentage points higher for exposed properties between 2011 and 2016 (relative to a base transaction rate of approximately 11% for all properties). This is entirely driven by the period following the IPCC report where we see a 0.8 percentage point increase in the annual probability of an exposed property transacting."

I see a remake of the "The Big Short" coming up. A good title might be "Underwater."

Open access (no doi ?!) . Read the whole thing:

"Disaster on the Horizon: The Price Effect of Sea Level Rise," Asaf Bernstein, Matthew Gustafson, and Ryan Lewis


Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: December 09, 2017, 11:47:09 PM »
Adani got no money and a lot of debt, at least 1.5 billion US$ needs refi next year. Even China won't lend.


The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: December 09, 2017, 11:41:30 PM »
Re: Pence has no career left.


"You won't have XXX to kick around anymore ..."

Who was XXX ? Hint: 1962


The rest / Re: Economic Inequality
« on: December 08, 2017, 08:49:07 AM »
Can't have rich people's houses burn.

"  “One Fire Truck Guarded Every Three Houses” in Wealthy Los Angeles Neighborhood Last Night "


The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: December 08, 2017, 05:37:53 AM »
While I am not a huge fan of Jimmy Dore, I find that he does provide a useful antidote to mainstream media, whether of red or blue persuasion. So I think that Neven or others should post as much Jimmy Dore as they like. And those who don't like it are, of course, not obliged to watch ...
(Although i do have to jump thru hoops to find the URL, since i disallow most iframes, so the link to the embedded video in the iframe has to be found thru inspection of the source. Perhaps people might also post a direct link to the URL for the video as well.)


The rest / Re: Economic Inequality
« on: December 08, 2017, 02:07:46 AM »
Lending by big banks to lo income down. No more money there, the banks sucked it all out already. They go to where the money is.


The rest / Re: The problem of Corporate Democrats and how to kick them out
« on: December 07, 2017, 05:31:38 AM »
Franken gonna resign, too much groping. Even if the governor don't appoint Ellison, I think he should run in 2018. In fact if the DNC don't come out for Ellison, we know they are still sucking on the big money.


The rest / Re: Empire - America and the future
« on: December 07, 2017, 05:27:17 AM »

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: December 07, 2017, 05:25:27 AM »
Why not a party line vote ? what did democratic congressmen have to lose by voting for this ?


The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: December 07, 2017, 05:24:17 AM »
"I have shaken Baudrillard's hand."

Did you get to talk to him at all ? He saw things differently than many.


Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: December 06, 2017, 06:11:24 AM »
Wheeler doe not usually comment on Saud, but she looks at the numbers in another context and they are dismal:

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: December 06, 2017, 06:05:53 AM »
" It does however freeze under these conditions and today I was fixing freeze damage on hoses that popped late night. "

Blow them out with compressed air if freeze is expected. The fitting is ez to make or you can just buy one. O, and make sure dripcock on compressor is not frozen either ...

Nuttn worse than fighting a fire in freeze and realizing the 200 feet of hose you unspooled in a hurry is frozen and ripped.


The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: December 06, 2017, 02:54:25 AM »
"Shut up," Popehat explained kindly.

" If the FBI — or any law enforcement agency — asks to talk to you, say "No, I want to talk to my lawyer, I don't want to talk to you," and repeat as necessary. Do not talk to them "just to see what they want." Do not try to "set the facts straight." Do not try to outwit them. Do not explain that you have "nothing to hide."

Shut up, shut up, shut up, shut up, shut up, shut up. "

That line in the article contains six links, each with popehat kindly explaining why.

Specifically, this time Ken White  was set off by George Papadopouluos and Michael Flynn pleading guilty to the federal crime of lying to the FBI.

"The answer is to shut up and lawyer up."

He would go completely crazy if he had Trump for a client. I'd give him about a new york minute until he quit.


The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: December 05, 2017, 10:14:40 PM »
An older article by Andrew O'Hehir on framing the Trump Presidency in Baudrillard's 2001 vison of suicidal world order at war with itself:

"Like the 9/11 attacks, Trump has provoked “prodigious jubilation” in some quarters, along with an unwholesome, libidinal fascination among both the media and the worldwide public."

" ... a new phase of what Baudrillard identified in 2002 as a global conflict within the Western world, reflecting a deep crisis in its dominant political and economic order. To put this in the most provocative terms possible, has Donald Trump succeeded Osama bin Laden as the central figure of World War IV?"

"There are premonitions of a certain reality-show celebrity turned politician who subverted an entire campaign cycle here as well, in the observation that the terrorists exploited the media economy and its “instantaneous worldwide transmission” of spectacle, but that none of us could resist its power: “There is no ‘good’ use of the media; the media are part of the event, they are part of the terror, and they work in both directions.” "

" Were the shocking attacks of September 2001 and the shocking election result of November 2016 — 9/11 and 11/9, the palindrome that defines our age — fluke occurrences amid the general upward trajectory of Western civilization? Or do they represent, as Baudrillard argued in the first instance, Western civilization’s innate yearning toward its own destruction? "
That is the world we live in now: the world of World War IV. The scale of the self-inflicted defeat in that first battle — which was more like an abject surrender — was greater than Baudrillard or anyone else could have imagined in 2002. It paved the way for many other defeats, large and small, including the spectacular and improbable rise of a clownish would-be dictator who barely pretends to care about the supposedly sacred traditions of democracy and who embodies the grossest possible caricature of the “ideology of freedom.” "

Baudrillard's essay can befound, among other places, at:

It is very much worth reading, perhaps more so than O'Hehir.


The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: December 05, 2017, 10:04:26 PM »
800 million to buy Trump out of the election ? Cheap at the price.


The rest / Re: The problem of Corporate Democrats and how to kick them out
« on: December 05, 2017, 08:21:28 PM »
Here three democratic Congress reps that want to keep it legal for payday lenders to charge 300% interest. Probably need money for 2018, too.

 Alcee Hastings (D-FL)
 Henry Cueller (D-TX)
 Collin Peterson (D-MN)

All up in 2018. Primary challengers ?


The rest / Re: The problem of Corporate Democrats and how to kick them out
« on: December 05, 2017, 08:17:08 PM »
Nine democratic senators want to deregulate Wall Street some more:

 Donnelly, Joe [D-IN] --- up for reelection 2018
 Heitkamp, Heidi [D-ND] ---  2018
 Tester, Jon [D-MT] -- - 2018
 Warner, Mark R. [D-VA] --- 2020
 McCaskill, Claire [D-MO] --- 2018
 Manchin, Joe, III [D-WV] --- 2018
 Kaine, Tim [D-VA] --- 2018
 Peters, Gary C. [D-MI] --- 2020
 Bennet, Michael F. [D-CO] --- 2022

Six are up for reelection in 2018, need to get that sweet, sweet campaign financing from the plutocrats.  Primary challengers, anyone ? I know Manchin has primary opposition.


The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: December 05, 2017, 07:26:04 AM »
Extragovernmental secret intelligence action.  Brilliant. What could go wrong ?

Erik Prince is one monocle and one white persian cat away from starring in a bond movie.


Consequences / Re: Qué se ficieron ?
« on: December 05, 2017, 07:23:12 AM »
I have posted about Conn, the social security scammer, He's just been caught in hondura.


Consequences / Re: Hansen et al paper: 3+ meters SLR by 2100
« on: December 05, 2017, 04:51:34 AM »
In another thread there was a reference to the Scambos review doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.04.008
Open access, good review. I noted Fig 4 which I attach. As is my wont, i often whine about the Mercer warning of the 0C midsummer isotherm. Fig 4 in Scambos is a depiction of surface melt on WAIS fringe. I imagine 0C midsummer isotherm is not far behind.

Doom is nigh.


Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: December 04, 2017, 11:18:00 PM »
Yemen former dictator Saleh killed after turning on the houthis and doing a deal with Saudi. That was quick. Meanwhile Swiss banks cooperating with Saud money grab.


Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: December 04, 2017, 11:12:00 PM »

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: December 04, 2017, 11:09:58 PM »
This ought to be interesting. Dana Rohrbacher and Wasserman-Schultz to apppear before house intelligence committee.


Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: December 04, 2017, 05:43:03 AM »
I know a farmer who used to run 28 kilowatt in summer off methane from manure outta 800 pigs. But he quit, didn't have enuf insulation and wound up with a mess every winter when temperature dropped. Didn't want to spend the money to redig and insulate. Electric from the utility was cheaper. Gone back to spraying pigshit on fields.


The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: December 04, 2017, 01:55:08 AM »
Re: state races 2018

Cordray, who just stepped down from CFPB, intends to run for ohio governor in 2018.

Sued bank of america and AIG while he was ohio attorney general. CFPB tenure was also militant. Go, Cordray.

Dunno if he can beat Kasich, though but he has the best chance of all D candidates i think.


Consequences / Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences
« on: December 02, 2017, 09:29:51 PM »
Thanks for the casement reference, Mr. Mitchell.


The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: December 02, 2017, 07:52:55 AM »
Thehill reporting that Trump officials who knew,authorized and guided Flynn/Russia contacts were Kushner and McFarland:


The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: December 02, 2017, 07:28:09 AM »
For the record, i join neven and others in stating that the evidence posted thus far does not convince me that the Russian government intervened to influence the presidential election in the USA in 2016.

On another note here's something that  sheds some light on the Kaspersky-NSA malware leak allegations:

"Government officials, who would speak of the classified details of the case only on condition of anonymity, said that Mr. Pho took the classified documents home to help him rewrite his resume. But he had installed on his home computer antivirus software made by Kaspersky Lab, a top Russian software company, and Russian hackers are believed to have exploited the software to steal the documents, the officials said."

I think Kaspersky software found suspicious binary signature on this moron's machine, uploaded the zip archive to Kaspersky, and a human bean there found the source code (?!!!) in the archive with secret markings, just as Kaspersky admitted. Then Kaspersky states that he ordered deletion of the archive and on balance, i believe that too. What I suspect strongly is that a copy found it's way to the Russian FSB.

But at this time, Kaspersky was penetrated by a Duqu variant, (again admitted by Kaspersky) which is probably Israeli. So I also suspect strongly that the Israeli's were watching this whole fiasco and snitched to NSA.

That said, I also think Kaspersky is the best in the business and if I were an organization in the unfortunate position of needing antivirus packages, worried about general virus threats and particularly NSA/DOD/Israeli malware on a computer/network i would run the Kaspersky package. At the same time I would be careful about letting Russia related information on that computer/network.

But then I'm the kind of person that thinks that if you need an antivirus package, you are already screwed.


Consequences / Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences
« on: December 02, 2017, 06:51:17 AM »
"The well casing failure rate of every natural gas well ever drilled is 100% on a 200 year timeline."

Since we don't have stats for 200 yr, are you basin this on failure rates for casings or ... ?


The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: December 02, 2017, 12:29:28 AM »
The indictment is at:

Lying to the FBI about calls to and from the Russian Ambassador during the last third of december 2016 regarding UN resolution on Israeli settlements and Russian response to US sanctions. It turned out that in the first case his efforts were unsuccessful and in the second, fruitful.

The statement of offense is more interesting:

He states that the calls to the Russian Ambassador were made with knowledge and direction of one or more members of Trump's transition team. He also admits that his FARA registration contained false statements in regard to his work for the Turkish government.

Logan act prosecution ? will be a first i think.


The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: December 01, 2017, 10:46:52 PM »
I do not see any mention of Turkey in the Flynn indictment. So that's probably a charge Mueller is holding over Flynn to ensure continued cooperation.


Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: December 01, 2017, 12:45:55 AM »

In a larger sense, and more to the topic of this thread (threat?), the great glaciers will not, i think, be the dominant factor in greenland ice mass waste. As Enderlin saw and the models in Applegate indicate, dynamic ice loss in greenland becomes less and less important wth larger forcing.

"Consistent with the conclusions of these earlier studies, the agreement between the ice volume curves from the mass balance-only runs and the dynamic runs becomes progressively better as ΔTgrl increases (Fig. 3b; see also Huybrechts and de Wolde 1999). This result suggests that ice dynamics are an important determinant of the time scale of GIS response for small temperature anomalies, but the ice sheet’s response is dominated by surface mass balance changes at high ΔTgrl values." -- Applegate(2014)

 ΔTgrl is the temperature anomaly imposed over greenland.

Surface mass imbalance is already majority of mass loss in greenland. It's all surface mass balance in greenland  from here on out. Watch out for moisture rich air on greenland, even more than rain, moisture packs 540 cal+80cal/g rather than just 80.

There is another indicator would like to know, which is the elevation of the saddle at 67N between north and south domes in greenland. Some years ago, i posted to realclimate that the equilibrium line had climbed above the saddle. Gregoire(2012 doi:10.1038/nature11257 ; 2016 doi:10.1002/2016GL070356 ) describe saddle collapse and i have posted on this before. That saddle should be dropping now as the collapse begins. I would like some time series of that saddle elevation (and a pony ... )

I think  Greenland will sit and melt in place, all the heat has to get there thru the air.

But WAIS is a different matter. The ocean is already delivering heat there 300meter depth and below. When the atmosphere gets involved as in Mercer's comments about midsummer 0C isotherm on ice shelves, it will be too late.

Jacobshawn is the only collapsing icecliff instability we see, 5Km wide, sinuous channel, sidewall and frozen melange buttressing and the rest. Thwaites is at least ten times as wide and exposed. How fast could that go ? As Alley and Rignot say, it could be just decades, then the seaways to the ross and the ronne open and all WAIS is gone, Totten and the Aurora Basin on deck.


Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 37