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Messages - Buddy

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1
The rest / Re: Political theatre/wrestling
« on: November 20, 2018, 01:14:29 AM »
Ditto re: ASLR’s sentiments.  Really a shame.  Good luck to all, and always follow the truth.

2
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: November 19, 2018, 05:32:27 PM »
As Trumps economic policies continue to “bite”, the economy continues to slow:

1). Homebuilder confidence down to a 2 year low
2). Lumber and copper prices continue to slide to multi year lows
3). Houseing prices in the US continue to drop
4). House “affordability” continues to drop (which means lumber, copper, and housing prices are likely to fall further).  Note:  Australia housing prices are really getting hammered .... and Canadian housing prices are likely to drop as oil price drops bite into their economy.
5). Growing number of companies are lowering future guidance
6). FAANG stocks (Facebook. Amazon, et) have all “failed” as of late and likely have much further to go
7). Oil prices remain weak after a 25% drop in 6 weeks.  This will help soften the blow to the economy, but it is also a signal that the world economies are vulnerable right now.



3
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: November 15, 2018, 04:47:07 PM »
Oil inventories continue to grow.  API reported yesterday an increase of over 8 million barrels I believe.

As copper, oil, and lumber continue to show intermediate/long term weakness .... that does NOT spell good things for economies ..... and the equity markets.

I'll post some long term charts of oil later on ..... the picture is not too hot.  As well, things in the equity markets look like they are in for a "rough slog" in coming months.  I expect to see some numbers in the coming year that will NOT please stock holders.  Apple looks especially vulnerable .... but there are a LOT of things to NOT like in the short/intermediate term ..... and those things are affecting the oil market right now.

Underneath the hood .... in the LONGER RUN (ie more than a year out from where we are now) .... there are several good things happening .... like more and more and more EV products that will be taking the place of oil and gas products AND saving people money to boot (something that a FISCAL CONSERVATIVE AND SOCIAL MODERATE LOVES ON ALL LEVELS).

Just be aware that when this equity markets gets ready to bounce in the coming weeks ..... it is NOT done going down.  I'm afraid that is going to be a lot more painful..... with some nasty "countertrend rallies" that are then taken out and shot.


4
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: November 15, 2018, 02:33:26 PM »
Martin:

Per Neven
Quote
The American people are suffering, Martin. Taking out Trump through Whitewater-type legal means, like the Russiagate placebo, will not solve that. It will only make it worse. Trump was right when he said the swamp needs to be drained. The problem, of course, is that he is also part of that swamp.
[/size]

You are absolutely right regarding Trump and RussiaGate.  Some people NEVER learn from history.  Those that don't, are doomed to repeat it.  If you break the law .... especially if you break SEVERAL LAWS ..... then lie them ..... and then try to obstruct justice into the investigation .... then you are held accountable.  Very simple.

I wonder what happened to the person that said that "fighting Trump will only make him stronger and make things worse" (paraphrased).  I think the recent mid-term election put that thought to rest rather handily (except for those like Pence and Trump who publicly think they won).  And in the coming months ..... it will be even clearer to those that, for whatever reason, can't see it yet.

Comparing the PROCESS of the Clinton impeachment to "RussiaGate" is like comparing a cat to an elephant.  The Clinton impeachment proceeding which started with the Whitewater investigation and then included the Monica Lewinsky affair and obstructing justice into that affair investigation, was appropriate.  Should they have stopped after not finding anything in Whitewater? Probably.....but they didn't.  Instead they were led by people like Newt Gingrich who ..... by the way .... WAS INVOLVED IN AN AFFAIR WHILE CLINTON IMPEACHMENT WAS IN PROCESS.  Perhaps it was retribution for Watergate .... I don't know.

Clinton's big failure in my eyes was lying to the American people ABOUT THE LEWINSKI AFFIAR.  The affair itself was obviously wrong ..... but unless we want to remove 1/3 of the Senate and House for currently being involved in affairs ..... then you need to draw the line somewhere.  For me ..... I thought Clinton should have been ousted in the Senate FOR LYING TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE.  But that is a "high bar" (I blame my high level of morals on my parents).   And if I were to use that same bar as "lying to the American people" ..... well, most presidents would have been in trouble.

As I said almost two years ago ..... RussiaGate is 10 times what Watergate was ..... and it is 50 times greater than what the Clinton impeachment was.  So holding up Clinton impeachment is a joke (maybe for use by a second rate Youtube comedian like Jimmy Dore). ;)  More on Jimmy Dore later ....

 





5
The rest / Re: Elections 2018 USA
« on: November 15, 2018, 01:51:03 AM »
In Donald Trump’s “very close to complete victory” last Tuesday .... the new House members went to Washington DC today for “Freshman Orientation” and a photo shoot.  Note that there are still close to 10 seats that are still too close to call, but the photos of the new Freshman House members is GOBSMACKING ....

Republicans:  30 men + 1 woman (NO .... that is NOT a misprint ... ONE)

Democrats:    22 men + 34 women

So 61% of the new House Democrat’s are women .... and 3% of the new House Republicans are women.

And how man of the Republican men are WHITE?  Only ALL OF THEM.  The Dem’s had about 15 of the 56 new members from an ethnic minority (visually ... so it could be more ... that is about 27%).

I think the GOP needs to change their name from the Grand Ole’ Party (GOP), to the GWM .... (Grand White Men). 😱

And you wonder why Donnie was campaigning to “angry white males”?

6
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: November 14, 2018, 06:28:38 PM »
California's "Camp Fire" death toll jumps to 48 as lawsuit blames utility

The  number of homes burned in the Camp fire in northern California, is 7,600 .... and 200 people are still missing.

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-news/california-fires-camp-woolsey-containment-evacuations-death-toll-2018-11-14-live-updates/

Anyone who doesn't understand that forest fires are made WORSE by a "speeding up of the hydrological cycle" in a warming planet ...... needs to re-visit their high school science books.  As temperatures warm, water evaporates more quickly .... thus taking away water from the ground and from plants more quickly than before.  The dryer the ground and the plants .... the greater the damage that will happen during forest fires.  NOT ROCKET SCIENCE ........ even a finance guy could understand this basic science.  ;)

However ..... since I AM a finance guy ..... I understand that SIGNIFICANT $$$$$ are going to be spent NOW and in future years dealing with the OUTCOME of global warming, rather than spending FEWER DOLLARS UPFRONT PREVENTING THE BAD OUTCOME IN THE FIRSTPLACE.

That is why I register and THINK as an Independent .... rather than a Republican .... because the Republican party is NOT FISCALLY CONSERVATIVE.  They are owned by the lobbyists.  Sorry to interject "politics" here ... but I think it is important for people to realize what REAL FISCAL responsibility is all about.  And that some policies that are considered "PROGRESSIVE" ARE ALSO FISCALLY CONSERVATIVE (dealing with global warming and single payor healthcare being just two of them).







7
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: November 14, 2018, 05:49:20 PM »
Now on to Trump's economic policy .....

Gundlach: The U.S. economy seems to be on a 'suicide mission'

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gundlach-u-s-economy-seems-suicide-mission-130715116.html

I have always mentioned Trump's misguided economic policies as being "Larry's and Trump's" .... when in reality I should have said "Larry's, Trump's, and Wilbur's." 

Trump's WORST economic mistake is what is discussed in this article and video clip.  The tax break for the wealthy and corporations at a time when corporations are reporting record gross profit levels AND when unemployment is very low AND the wealth discrepancy is very high ..... WAS THE WORST POLICY MISTAKE I HAVE EVER WITNESSED.  And I believe the "capital markets" (bond and stock markets) are going to punish the US SEVERELY over the coming year.

Quote
Bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach, the founder of DoubleLine Capital, reiterated his assertion that the U.S. is “on a suicide mission” by increasing its deficit while the Fed is raising interest rates.

Gundlach made the comments during a webcast on Tuesday afternoon shortly after the U.S. Treasury reported that the federal government ran a budget deficit of nearly $100.5 billion during October, an approximately 59% increase from the same month a year ago. October marks the beginning of fiscal 2019. The deficit is expected to move above $1 trillion this year.

8
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: November 14, 2018, 05:11:35 PM »
If you don’t mind, I would like to set up a thread that deals with “the impeachment process”.  We are now likely going to enter the phase of (1) more indictments of “higher ups” in the Trump admin/family (2) issues going to federal courts/appeals courts/Supreme Court, etc. (3) the process of more transparency by the House Of Representatives in calling people BACK for public scrutiny (4) the process of Trump’s popularity/unpopularity by the public (because that is what is going to drive the Congress), etc.

RussiaGate (as I refer to it) encompasses not JUST conspiracy with Russian sources in the election phase of Donald Trump ....  but also many illegal activities with other governments BOTH pre and post election.  The impeachment of Donald Trump will also be taking a close look at the finances of the Trump organization many years prior to the election, as well as activity during the transition months AND since his inauguration.

I think a thread focused on the impeachment process is warranted.  I believe we in the US are dealing with the largest, broadest, and deepest political scandal in US history, bar none.  And while I truly HATE politics (whether it is politics in a family, politics at work, or politics in government) I certainly hope everyone in the US should monitor, discuss, and get involved in something of such great importance.




9
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: November 14, 2018, 12:35:44 AM »
Neven:

Quick question regarding what type of things you want/accept that are posted to this category.  I assumed (mistakenly) that things regarding the “Trump presidency” ..... things like (1) Tariff policy of Trump admin (2) economic policy of Trump admin (3) viability of Trump admin going forward (4) popularity/unpopularity of Trump admin, (5) social effects of the Trump admin (like the just announced 17% increase in hate crimes this year over last year as just reported by the FBI), etc ..... would go in this thread.

So I’m asking for some brief guidance as to what you want in this thread. 

Thanks ....  Buddy

10
The rest / Re: Elections 2018 USA
« on: November 13, 2018, 08:55:28 PM »
I EXPECT that Trump will win Florida after the recount is done, and is likely to win Mississippi as well when they vote.  But to tell you just how important those two state Senate seats are to Trump .... if the Dem’s somehow won those two seats ...   it would mean that there would only have to be 16 Republican Senators that vote for removing Trump from office, as opposed to 20 Republicans needed if the Republicans win both seats.

This is Trump’s “fallback wall” ...   and he wants/needs it as high as he can get it.  Because once the information about how corrupt he is, he will continue to lose support by the US public and Congress.

11
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: November 13, 2018, 08:43:46 PM »
<snip, moved to a more fitting place, I don't know how long I will be copypasting; N.>

12
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: November 13, 2018, 07:19:54 PM »
<snip, moved to a more fitting place, I don't know how long I will be copypasting; N.>

13
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: November 13, 2018, 05:01:51 PM »
Another day ..... another down day for oil price.  Anyone trying to catch the “falling knife” of oil price is likely to end up in the ER (emergency room). 😱

I think copper and lumber have quite a ways to fall.  That will lead to falls in equities as well as time passes.   Oil .... it has “initial chart support” in the 54 - 55 ish range.  Just remember that fundamentals are the cause for the drop, so that short term  “support” for oil may end up being about as good as a weak bridge in an earthquake. 😱

14
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: November 13, 2018, 03:20:23 PM »
<snip, moved to a more fitting place, I don't know how long I will be copypasting; N.>

15
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: November 13, 2018, 02:53:35 PM »
By the way .... if you have 6,500 houses destroyed, at an average of 2,000 sq feet (conservatively), at a rebuild cost of $130 sq ft (again .... conservatively) .... you get just under $1.7 BILLION.

This doesn’t include other costs like lost work/wages, the cost of fighting the fire, loss of life, etc.

You would think that any FISCAL conservative would see the FINANCIAL wisdom of trying to mitigate global warming before the costs of treating the results of global warming get too out of hand.  We’re just now scratching the surface of accelerating costs of treating the results of global warming.

16
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: November 12, 2018, 10:48:18 PM »
Oil just did something it has NEVER done before.  EVER.  It dropped in price for the 11th STRAIGHT DAY.

And today’s drop was AFTER Saudi Arabia said they would cut back their production.

That isn’t that surprising to me.  I think that Saudi Arabia may be chasing their tail over the next DECADE from time-to-time.  In several months, new pipeline capacity in the Permian will come online and production will increase in the US (depending on oil price at that time).

Meanwhile..... renewables keep nibbling away at the fringes.  Russia could be in for tough times in a couple years.  I sure hope that doesn’t hurt corrupt little Vladi and put him out of office. 😱

17
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: November 12, 2018, 08:10:57 PM »
What I should have said is “music to Tesla shareholders ear” instead of Elon.  It will put GM further behind the curve and give them less chance of being a survivor in the coming/ongoing cutback in global vehicle manufacturers ..... and of course, gives Tesla a better chance (not that they needed any more help).


18
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: November 12, 2018, 07:27:46 PM »
Donnie’s weekly Gallup poll numbers are “heading south” again.  His approval number is 38% (3% above his worst number of 35%) .... and his disapproval number is 56% (4% below his historical worst of 60%).

Donnie's numbers will grow worse over time.  The process continues ...

19
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: November 12, 2018, 05:50:33 PM »
As the market continues to sell off in coming months .... my guess is Donnie will no longer be “taking credit” for the stock market.  And since the Republicans had “almost a perfect day” ... it can’t be the Democrat’s fault.

You KNOW that somehow he will get around to blaming Obama.  You KNOW it is coming ... 😉

20
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: November 12, 2018, 04:22:35 PM »
I see that GM says they won’t be in the “EV truck business for decades” (plural).  Those words are music to Elon’s ears.  I could also reference you to the year 2000 annual report of the Kodak Company, where the CEO was proclaiming that there was no better investment than Kodak, and he rattled off all the good metrics of the past year.  When you are IN the bubble .... it is BLINDING.

21
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: November 12, 2018, 10:25:27 AM »
Rob .... you are SOOOO right.  The unsettling thing is .... Donnie doesn’t have those type of feelings. He has NO empathy.  He has NO remorse for others.  His life is all about Donnie 24 x 7 x 365.  And that is why he finds it so easy to discard people when they no longer serve HIS purpose.  Whether it is a wife or a worker or a friend .... it doesn’t matter.

He is one SICK sociopath .... who will continue to unwind.

And not only is HE sick .... think about someone who supports someone like that. 


22
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: November 12, 2018, 10:07:27 AM »
Unethical people ..... HATE ethics. 

23
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: November 11, 2018, 04:39:15 PM »
Trump will continue to weigh on the Republicans in 2019, in addition to issues like global warming, gun control, healthcare, and income disparity.

Ted Cruz was able keep his seat in what was once ruby red Texas by 3% as that state’s red color continues fade.  John Cornyn, Senator from Texas is up for election in 2020 ... and he is much like Ted Cruz:  Bigoted, science denier, kind of a jerk (not as bad as Ted ... but CLOSE).

Could Beto make another run in 2020 in Texas?  That would be my best guess, but time will tell.

Global warming will only worsen in the next two years, as will the clamor for healthcare reform and gun control.  The “so called Conservatives” may be in for another rocky road in 2 years .... and in 2019 they may eventually give Donnie the “heave ho” he so richly deserves.

Russia is going to have to look for other Republican candidates to buy other than Dana Rohrabacher of California after his loss.  Maybe Dana will move to Canada and run for office?  The “Russian/Canadians” up there would LOVE him.

24
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: November 10, 2018, 08:29:46 PM »
The price of oil has gone down for 10 trading days in row ... the longest streak since 1984.

Funny how Goldman Sachs was promoting $100 oil just 6 weeks ago.  It’s almost like they were trying to sucker some retail investors. 😉

25
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: November 10, 2018, 12:55:04 PM »
I hope all of you are following Seth Abramson on Twitter.  Especially now as we enter this very important period where Trump is “making his move” regarding the Mueller investigation.

Matthew Whitaker is Trump’s attack dog.  Of course, Whitaker has been Trump’s eyes and ears in the justice department since July of 2017 after Trump asked Don McGhan to interview him for the position of Jeff Sessions Chief Of Staff.  Apparently Whitaker has been meeting with Trump over the past 15 months, reporting to him what he finds out about what is going on.

This powder keg is getting ready to explode.  What instructions will Donnie get from HIS BOSS when he meets with Vladi for lunch this weekend?

Keep your eyes wide open this weekend and next week.


26
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: November 09, 2018, 06:18:26 PM »
This weekend when Donnie has lunch with Vladi in Paris, I sure hope Donnie sets up a future trip to Moscow.  He will likely need an escape hatch to get out of this.

27
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: November 09, 2018, 03:29:53 PM »
Not only has Trump quit tweeting about the “invasion at the border.... FOX News has forgotten all about it.  Must have been Donnie’s “tough guy stance” that scared them back to Central America. 😉

I am going to “clear my schedule” of all honey do’s this weekend.  I have a distinct feeling that something substantial could break this weekend.  I know that Donnie was pleased with “an almost perfect election”.  And if he was pleased with the outcome a couple days ago ... he will certainly be giddy about losing more House seats and a few Senate seats taken from “the jaws of Republican victory.” 😉

Donnie understands the clock is ticking on him, his administration, and his family and business.  He looked like HELL in the clips I saw of him during his Wednesday press conference.  He looked like a cornered man who hasn’t gotten any sleep because he thinks he could go to prison. 😱

Something is likely to happen this weekend.  For those of you with Comcast Xfinity service in the US ... you really should watch the History Channel WaterGate special.  It is not “scheduled” ... BUT, you can access it through using the “On Demand” feature.  The special is very in depth, and you will learn a LOT about what types of things could happen in the near future.

28
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: November 09, 2018, 02:17:16 PM »
Oil continues its short term death spiral over the last 5 weeks .... now under $60 for West Texas Crude.  The US continues to increase production, and when pipelines in the Permian Basin are completed in 2019 ... there will be more capacity.

Right now the weakness in oil prices continues to come on the SUPPLY SIDE.  Over the next few years, renewable energy sources and EV’s will continue to “nibble” at the demand side.  Everyone KNOWS it’s coming.  It is a slow process, but one that is working towards “peaking oil production” in the coming few/several years.  When car buyers get into “ICE strike mode” (refuse to buy ICE vehicles because it makes no sense), the pace of transition will pick up steam.

29
The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: November 09, 2018, 01:09:16 PM »
There is NOTHING that is below lying fake Christian Sarah Huckabee.  Nothing.  I hope she enjoys her last year/months lying from the podium.  The good thing for her is that FOX News is always looking for a few fake Christians to lie for them.  She should have no problem working for them.  She will fit in perfectly.

30
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: November 09, 2018, 02:30:19 AM »
More and more seats keep slipping away from Donnie.  Arizona Senate race is still close ... but now the Democrat is ahead by about 9,000 votes.  And in Florida ... Republican Rick “Medicare Fraud” Scott is now only ahead by 15,000 votes.  I would give my right testicle for Rick Scott to lose in Florida.

I’m not holding my breath on Florida ..... BUT .... it would be fantastic if Nelson would be able to beat Rick Scott.

In the House .... there are about 11 seats still not decided, but Democrat’s are likely to win a majority of those.

31
The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: November 08, 2018, 09:37:45 PM »
More blood on the hands of FOX News hosts like Laura Ingraha, Sean Hannity, Tucker Carlson, and others at FOX.  When will FOX stop lying about reasonable gun control?

Donald Trump wants churches to have guns.  Now I suppose Trump and his enablers at FOX want waitresses to carry guns.

When will FOX News stop campaigning for Donald Trump?  When will FOX stop enabling Donald Trump?  When will FOX stop lying about global warming?

FOX News:  “Where truth and journalism are dead.”

32
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: November 08, 2018, 03:48:25 PM »
Continue to watch COMMODITIES like oil, copper, and lumber.  Remember .... somebody has to “take delivery” and store/inventory commodities (unlike stocks/bonds which have ZERO “storage cost”).

Oil has continued to break down BELOW the almost 3 year uptrend .  First “chart support” is in the $55 - $57 level.  Please remember that fundamentals cause the chart (not the other way around).  And this is especially true with commodities.



33
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: November 08, 2018, 01:12:09 PM »
After Trump held his delusional press conference yesterday afternoon where he claimed almost a “total victory” after losing the House to the Democrats and losing badly at the State level .... the Los Angeles Dodgers announced they would also have a press conference where they would discuss their “winning” of the World Series .... which they LOST 4 games to 1 ...... calling it “an almost perfect World Series”.

In other news ..... Orlando, Florida is announcing they have some of the best snow and best downhill skiing that can be found anywhere in the world ..... and Ireland is promoting that they have 300 days of sunshine a year. 😱


34
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: November 08, 2018, 12:52:27 PM »
The pool of people that Trump (1) will hire, and (2) will actually work for him .... is shrinking quickly.  Trump is supposedly looking at ex FOX news host Heather Neuart to replace Nikki Haley at the United Nations.  He’s also looking at loyalist Pam Bondi who is finishing up her term as Florida AG to replace Jeff Sessions.  She has been a staunch loyalist to Trump.

I’m sure that failed candidate Kris Kobach will land somewhere in the Trump administration now that he lost his run for Governor.

Maybe representative Jim Jordan can land a gig in the Trump administration as well.  He wants to be the new minority leader in the House ..... but I don’t know if he has more support than Kevin McCarthy.  If Jordan does NOT land the Minority Leader gig in the House .... I will not be surprised to see Trump try to bring him in somewhere in the administration.  Trump needs protection as the RussiaGate matters begins to spiral further out of control .... along with Donnie.

It’s getting close to “Mueller Time.”

35
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: November 08, 2018, 02:51:06 AM »
I just saw some clips of Trump’s press conference where he was bragging about a SUPPOSED “victory” by the Republicans.  WHAT?????

It reminded me of Sein Spicer when marched out and gave his first press conference and proudly claimed that Trump’s crowd on Inauguration Day was the largest inauguration crowd EVER.

Trump claiming victory was every bit as laughable.  Once again Trump is revealing himself as a narcissistic liar.  He truly has no sight of anything resembling the truth.

36
The rest / Re: Mueller Investigation & Cohen Investigation
« on: November 07, 2018, 10:52:19 PM »
There will be a lot of people to keep an eye on in coming days and weeks ... but two I am watching closely are:

1). Lindsay Graham
2). General Mattis

Lindsay Graham is being politically blackmailed by Trump.  There is something that Trump is holding over Graham to cause such a shift in Graham’s stance.  A “good crook” gets people involved that he can control.  Some people can be controlled via greed, some people because they have no spine, and some people have to be blackmailed.  Graham is in that latter category.

Mattis:  The only person in the administration with ethics.  What is Mattis going to do.  Trump has to know he can’t trust Mattis to be corrupt like he can with others around Trump.  How/when does Mattis leave office?  Under what conditions?  Mattis knows what Trump is doing .... now, what is he going to do about it?  Mattis has loyalty to COUNTRY ... not to Trump ... and Trump knows that.

Pressure is now on Donnie BIG TIME ....

37
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: November 07, 2018, 08:59:27 PM »
Somebody forgot to mention the flipping of Governorships as well as hundreds of STATE senate and house seats.

This is a MUCH bigger victory for the Dems, and is why Trump just fired Sessions.  Because Trump KNOWS he is guilty, and he knows that any public airing of Trump’s corruption would spell the end of Trump, just as it caused the end of Nixon.

38
The rest / Re: Mueller Investigation & Cohen Investigation
« on: November 07, 2018, 08:53:01 PM »
Trump throws the first “high inside fastball” and cans Sessions.  More fireworks to come shortly I am sure.

Next two months will be UGLY.....

39
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: November 07, 2018, 06:25:17 PM »
Oklahoma ..... RED Oklahoma ...... yesterday voted in a Democrat in the 5th district for the first time since 1976 (2 years after Nixon quit).

South Carolina .... RED South Carolina .... is now sending a Democrat to Washington DC from the 1st district for the first time since 1981.

Good work Donnie.  Pretty soon the Republicans will be down to the narrow group of old bigoted white men that don’t believe in science, video tapes, and truth.

40
The rest / Re: Mueller Investigation & Cohen Investigation
« on: November 07, 2018, 06:06:02 PM »
It’s coming.  He has no choice.  The last thing he wants is for his guilt to be televised day-after-day-after day.

He will have to slow or derail Mueller before the new Congress is seated.  The next stage of RussiaGate will start soon.

41
The rest / Re: Mueller Investigation & Cohen Investigation
« on: November 07, 2018, 05:38:40 PM »
So who is going to throw the FIRST, high-inside fastball brush off pitch .... Mueller or Donnie?  You know it’s coming soon ....


42
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: November 07, 2018, 05:27:42 PM »
The price Of WTIC (West Texas Intermediate Crude) has dropped almost 19% in the last 5 weeks as inventory of oil has increased over the last 7 weeks.  The price has dropped from about $75 to $61 and change currently.

The price of oil is a supply issue as well as a demand issue.  Supply of oil continues to outstrip the demand in the short run, and inventory has been building.

43
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: November 07, 2018, 04:33:17 PM »
Before the election, the Republicans controlled BOTH houses of Congress.  AFTER the election, Congress is now split.

It’s pretty clear who won last night.  This was NOT a “split decision”.  It was a victory for the Democrat’s .... both on the national AND local levels. 

And the victory will be expanded in the coming months/year as Trump and his administration’s corruption are exposed in the light of day.  Accountability is a bitch.

44
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: November 07, 2018, 03:48:04 PM »
Democrats won Governorships in two large gerrymandered states last night:  Michigan and Wisconsin.  The effect of re-drawing districts will be felt in future elections.  As well, Democrats did well on the state House & Senate levels gaining significant ground.

45
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: November 07, 2018, 03:43:51 PM »
There are MANY positive takeaways from yesterday’s election for the Democrats.  Here are but three of them:

1). Democratic candidates won 44% of the “white vote” last night.  Obama only won 38% of the white vote.

2). Hillary Clinton did NOT win the majority of “white college voters” in 2016.  Last night, Democratic candidates won the majority of white college voters.

3). Democratic candidates garnered 7.5% more votes than their Republican opponents, and that margin will grow as the votes in California are still coming in over the next week or two.

So .... the “Donald Trump Republican Party” is SHRINKING.  It is becoming the White, old man, bigoted, sexist party.  Who would have ‘thunk it’?

46
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: November 07, 2018, 04:48:29 AM »
Tonight is a good night for the Democrat’s.  It certainly isn’t  terrific night, but it is definitely good.

1). Dems take back control of the House and will have about 229 seats (11 more than needed .... and up from 193)

2). Pete Sessions defeated in his Texas House seat.

3). Scott Walker, Republican Governor of Wisconsin, looks like he will go down to defeat.  Scott Walker is scum, so this one, like Pete Sessions makes me happy.

4). Dems did very well tonight in the Midwest House races.  That is good news for the coming year as Donnie’s onion gets peeled back by the House and Mueller.

5) Beto lost as expected in Texas ... but he has energized Texas Dems.  I think the Democratic candidate in the Governors race only lost by about 10%.  So Texas is turning blue SLOWLY ..

6). Florida was a disappointment for the Dems (and me).  Crook Rick Scott moves from Governor to the Senate.  Truly a discrace to have such a slime in the Senate.



47
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: November 06, 2018, 10:53:55 PM »
Cook Political Report has 75 House races as “competitive.  Of those 75, 70 are Republican House seats now and 5 are currently Democrat.

Races I’m watching closely: Cruz/O’ROURKE, DeSantis/Gillum, Florida AG race ..... Florida and Texas are huge ...... not only for this race, but for years to come .....

48
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: November 05, 2018, 11:51:57 PM »
I hope some of you had the chance to see the History Channel special on WaterGate.  The third and final sequence was last night ..... Part III last night and part II on Saturday night are good “primers” for where we are now ... and where we are going.

The elections tomorrow will certainly play a part in where we are going AND at what speed.

If Donnie loses the House tomorrow, it will be a significant blow.  If he loses the Senate as well, he ... as well as the Republican Party will be swimming with the sharks.

49
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: November 05, 2018, 02:47:09 PM »
Crunch time.  The Dem’s still have a very real, although slim, chance at taking back the Senate.

If we are to believe the 538 prognostication it requires the Dems to do the following:

1). Take the two “tossup states” of Arizona and Nevada

2). Take ONE of the “Likely Republican” states of Tennessee, Texas, and North Dakota.  I DONT include Mississippi in this group (although 538.com DOES).  Note that a poll out this am has Tennessee TIED (can you say Taylor Swift?).

3). Win the 4 states that are “Lean Democrat” of Indiana, Florida, Missouri, and Montana.

Clearly that is quite the “gauntlet” for the Dems to run ... and there are several states where they could likely be tripped up.  BUT .... there IS a possibility, as thin as it might be (15% according to 538.com).

Of the 3 states that the Dems have to steal ONE from ... as of this morning it looks like it would be Tennessee ..... followed by Texas ..... with North Dakota being the least likely.

“But you say there is a chance ......”

50
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: November 04, 2018, 06:22:49 PM »
Just a few things to note re oil prices as well as some economic issues:

1). Gasoline prices in our neighborhood have dropped more than 30 cents per gallon in just the last week.

2). West Texas Internediate Crude has broken down through its trend line formed over the last 30 months or so (using WEEKLY activity .. not daily)

3) Lumber prices dropped more tan 50% off their May highs.  That is quite a dive in only 5 months.

4). Sydney, Australia has had their steepest one year drop in 30 years of housing prices from last October to this October of 7.4%. 

5). US housing prices have dropped for the last 6 months or so ... although housing on the high end in markets like New York City has been dropping for longer than that.

As I noted a few months ago, I expect oil prices to be weak due to fracking oil supply from the US, and a slowing world economy.

The longer that tariffs are kept on .... the worse it will get.  One positive is that my Publix honey oats cereal is down to $1.47 per box ..... down from $1.95 6 months ago. 😱. Farmers can’t be too happy.

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