Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - Kate

Pages: [1]
1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 16, 2017, 04:12:22 AM »
It has certainly rained a lot in Barrow this year. The grass has flourished and spread... and rain keeps falling


2
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 15, 2017, 02:39:32 PM »
A beautiful early morning in Barrow

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 13, 2017, 07:07:05 AM »
Surface winds atm...looks like an assault from all sides

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 06, 2017, 06:21:01 AM »
Lots of activity and Barrow looks down right green!

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: June 23, 2017, 07:30:45 AM »
Kate, was it ASI graphs?

It's actually linked at the top of this page, immediately below the graphic, but the link isn't underlined so it isn't obvious.

 :-[ yep....thank you

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: June 23, 2017, 02:21:46 AM »
So I updated my browser and now I can't find the page with all the data about the Arctic...had the graphs, anomalies, greenland melt etc...can't for the life of me find it again...would appreciate help :)

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: May 27, 2017, 02:25:30 PM »
Nice early morning sunrise over Barrow. Also meltwater can be seen, it's about -3 °C right now, should rise to +2 °C later.
Image: http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_webcam

Nearly posted this same scene about 10 mins ago!!! What I noticed was the man cleaning fish near the far left hand side...well I think he's cleaning fish...where all the footprints are in the snow. I watch Barrow grass grow in summer :) It's my favourite webcam!

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: October 24, 2016, 09:41:16 AM »
It's a bit chilly to keep the door open, even if it's only the mud room  :o

they perhaps want a warmer climate up there and try to support warming with a bit of heating energy blowing out for nothing LOL with a prise of seriousness. what a horrible example to permanently leave doors open during the heating season ( probably 12 months up there )

It's a hobby of mine to watch Barrow. This guy has his mud door open for about 3/4 of the year ( swear it's true !!! ). I also like to watch the grass grow in Barrow because I think it's a very quick and easy way to see if they're having a sunny, warm year. This year the grass didn't get very green, not because it wasn't warm enough but because of the lack of sunlight. Clouds make a huge difference and you see it not just the ice, but in the grass and wildlife

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: October 23, 2016, 09:35:58 AM »
It's a bit chilly to keep the door open, even if it's only the mud room  :o


10
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: September 20, 2016, 11:20:00 AM »
Lots and lots of thick smoke

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: September 18, 2016, 02:02:58 PM »
Lots of wind and waves will make the start of this year interesting to watch

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: September 11, 2016, 11:47:21 AM »
Is the green tint on the RHS algae? Is it that warm and fresh?


13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: September 01, 2016, 02:05:37 AM »

Edit: there is a whole Great Britain extent equivalent fading out in the Wrangel arm, that is 250k alone.

Wrexit.


14
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: September 01, 2016, 01:55:41 AM »
I like to watch the grass grow in Barrow. Not very green this year ( so far )

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: August 28, 2016, 02:42:47 AM »
The typhoon is undergoing extratropical transition, which makes it larger, but weaker (more spread out - however larger storms can generate larger storm surges).

I'm not sure why you reason thusly.  The JTWC disagrees, and they tend to know their stuff.

https://metoc.ndbc.noaa.gov/ProductFeeds-portlet/img/jtwc/products/wp1216prog.txt

C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THE NORTHERN RIDGE WILL STEER TY 12W
ALONG A NORTHWESTERN TRACK INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER
JAPAN. LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN HONSHU IS EXPECTED AROUND TAU 72.
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96 TY 12W WILL START TRANSITIONING INTO
AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BECOMING FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 120.

Lionrock is being pulled apart
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/western-pacific/2016/Typhoon-Lionrock?map=sat

On topic, nullschool image shows lots of warm air being pulled into the arctic atm

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: August 18, 2016, 12:11:24 PM »
GFS model suggests temps at 850hp have dropped below -8 for much of the remaining ice pack.  Andrew Slater's 925hp temps have dropped a good way below 0, although not quite as far as I thought they might go.  Is the surface melt season all but over now?  And perhaps an early end to the bottom melt season later on?
Until we get to -10C and below, I expect bottom melt will continue as long as we have weather stirring up the pack.  That will continue the process of retrieving heat from depth to replenish that lost to re-radiation.  With as much heat as has entered the basin and peripheral seas, I expect we may continue losing extent and area through the end of September.
I think so too. Even with the current drop if something should keep up bottom melt is current weather. The question is what happens with atmospheric temps when all these gales end, anything I guess.

For anyone who watches Hurricanes quite closely (not at a meteorological level but more where they go and what it does to SST)...

That is what I'm seeing here. The deeper the pressure gradient, the more heat is being sucked out of the sea to be transported elsewhere.  That, I believe, whilst having a short term effect of pumping heat from the depths right now, will end the bottom melt earlier than would otherwise have been the case.  Without the storms we should see bottom melt into October.

Storms or no storms we can see that areas of ice (ESS for instance), are simply not melting the way they did in 2012.

If I'm correct and top melt ends less than 3 weeks from today, we'll have a 3rd/4th place finish in extent with, as I've said all along, something quite interesting in the area stakes.  I believe effective open water pretty much to the pole classifies as "interesting" and that's what it's looking like now.

That falls into the same category as the open lead of September 2006 where the excessive SST's continued to do their damage under the ice even after the top melt had ended.

I'm already looking forward to the winter growth season and next years melt season.  2016 may have some surprises yet, but my anticipation is all for the next 14 months.

Yes. Exactly what I was thinking ( but I am an amateur only ). ATM, lots of cyclonic activity around the pole. Lots of heat being drawn in with the jet stream

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 29, 2016, 10:40:57 AM »
Someone will have to move the camera on the Helheim Glacier soon :(

It's been a conveyor belt all season

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 17, 2016, 04:54:37 AM »
Lots of smoke and broken ice

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: May 14, 2016, 03:35:30 PM »
The nullschool wind/temp/surface image looks devastating.
It's only May! 


20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: April 07, 2016, 12:22:30 PM »
Really off topic but I'm curious...has anyone else noticed on the Barrow cam that the house on the far left always has the back door open ( the one leading to the ramp ). I really want to ask why??
i see it closed LOL perhaps i'm just blind or you mean another one

Haha, yes, the far left one circled. It's closed now but I swear it's open more times than not! I see this page at least once a day. Just thought someone else might have noticed :)

On topic, I am getting lost in all the graphs and analysis atm since I'm only a hobbyist but I agree so much heat over winter has to go somewhere and do something. I appreciate all the links posted, they help heaps. Sydney city had its hottest April day on record yesterday. Lots of drought in Australia and the wet season in the NT didn't add up to much. Already getting too warm down here...

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: April 07, 2016, 05:08:58 AM »
Over the last couple of days much of the landfast ice west of Barrow has broken up and drifted off. The large area of open water there despite refreezing now could make a difference when weather starts to warm up

Didn't take long at all to clear the ice away again.

Really off topic but I'm curious...has anyone else noticed on the Barrow cam that the house on the far left always has the back door open ( the one leading to the ramp ). I really want to ask why??

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« on: February 18, 2016, 08:42:12 AM »
yikes, have I only posted 8 ( now 9 ) times here? Neven, the term Master Lurker is awesome :) and so true!

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« on: February 18, 2016, 08:34:48 AM »
Wow...

...

Yes, not a textbook sample of Warm Arctic/Cold Continents (WA/CC or just WACC for short) but pretty close to it.
<headshake>  IJIS is down 50,000 KM2, and the GFS forecast just gets worse.

Mad minmax here we come...

I'm certainly no expert but just eyeballing Cryosphere Today SIA graph puts things into perspective - can the Arctic really generate enough ice to overcome the heat before a full sunlit pole this year? I don't think so... a new minmax and possibly a new trend line for SIA. I know there are weeks to go, but seriously with the forecast and current situation I can't see it getting the boost it needs.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

24
Consequences / Re: Best case scenarios - Be optimistic!
« on: April 05, 2013, 04:25:26 PM »
God takes pity on us and removes all excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.  He refills the
aquafiers with fresh, clean water and dissociates toxic waste and spent nuclear fuel. He then
sits back and watches us f_*k things up again...
I'm sorry, who?

Go away

25
Consequences / Re: Personal Consequences - Worst Case
« on: April 05, 2013, 01:47:10 PM »
to amplify fiction further:
New Zealand will be ruled by military then - but I don't think they will banish people, that already live there. so you either be there before everything starts or as a normal citizen you won't be able to get there...  Intruders will be refused and events in the rest of the world will be carefully surveyed and hopefully there will be other safe havens...



Are you from NZ? Honestly, this is the LAST thing NZ would do. Truly, do you know anything about the last 40 years of NZ politics??

26
Consequences / Re: Best case scenarios - Be optimistic!
« on: April 05, 2013, 01:42:52 PM »
We're in a race between climate change and technology. "Best" case is that we get replaced by cyborgs and Homo Sapiens dies out but civilization continues.  I don't see any middle ground.  Either Humanity becomes Transhuman, or civilization collapses.

Many, many people underestimate the resilience of Homo Sapiens. If you think of people in biological terms, we are a virus.


We adapt to our environment. We have very few predators. We grow outside the limits of sustainable growth. We are hard to kill.

Optimistically, we will combine technology with biology and we will ( unfortunately ) be unstoppable.

27
Consequences / Re: Best case scenarios - Be optimistic!
« on: April 05, 2013, 02:41:48 AM »
Although the Arctic is ice free in summer the constant storms and uncertain weather prevents drilling.

Cargo ships use the Northeast and Northwest passages more frequently and urban and economic expansion throughout the northern hemisphere continues. Unfortunately the Middle East and the Midwest of the USA are suffering, making both regions stick more to domestic policy than international affairs. The rest of the world gets on with it.

Elron Musk provides the funds necessary for the production of cold fusion reactors to many of the poor and disadvantaged countries. Cold fusion was discovered after scientists tinker with dark matter, a new and exciting discovery made possible after the Hadron Collider was upgraded in 2015. Cold fusion reactors are easy to build and cheap to run, taking over from coal powered electricity production.

Unfortunately, recent diseases have decimated the population in many overcrowded countries. On the up side, cures for these are now available and the unfortunate countries have managed to work within the limits of growth.

/we can hope :)


28
Arctic sea ice / Re: Vote with your guts - And if... ?
« on: April 04, 2013, 10:16:02 AM »
#1 would be slightly surprising but worth a vote.

I'm thinking if the ice survives this year it probably won't the year after that. Too much movement, too many new weather system changes, too much feedback.

29
Consequences / Re: Personal Consequences - Worst Case
« on: April 03, 2013, 12:04:24 AM »
Question: In your opinion, which country would be the best country in the world to survive all the upcoming threats?
I go with New Zealand!

I go with Austria!  :P

Come on, not so gloomy everyone. A prolonged process of everything becoming less and less is more probable than a global crash. Don't prepare yourself, but prepare with your community. Live and learn, and if you, you die.

Agree with this 100%
I think unless you live somewhere where violence is an everyday event and where violence is used to answer social unrest, you don't really think about 'the end of the world as we know it'. Honestly I couldn't be a 'prepper' if I tried. I don't think that way. Mind you , Australia is a relatively safe place.

30
Consequences / Australian Climate has Changed
« on: April 02, 2013, 11:54:47 PM »
Here is the latest summary graphic of how the Australian climate has changed, and they do agree the change is mostly likely permanent.

The article link -  http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-03/scientist-endorse-report-that-says-climate-has-shifted/4606372


Pages: [1]