Messages

1

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues

« on: January 24, 2020, 09:36:38 PM »

U.S.

Court Throws Hurdle in Front of Washington State’s Drive to Reduce Carbon Emissions

The Washington State Supreme Court sided with the fossil fuel industry on Thursday, moving to severely limit a state rule aimed at capping the state's greenhouse gas emissions and raising the question of whether Washington—and potentially other states—will be able to rein in the nation's rising tailpipe emissions.

In a 5 to 4 decision, the court upheld a 2017 lower-court ruling that the state's Clean Air Act could not be applied to companies that sell or distribute petroleum or natural gas, because they do not directly emit carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by burning the fuel.

"The issue is not whether man-made climate change is real—it is," Chief Justice Debra Stephens wrote in the majority opinion. "Today we hold that by its plain language and structure, the (Washington Clean Air) Act limits the applicability of emission standards to actual emitters."

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/17012020/washington-emissions-lawsuit-tailpipe-greenhouse-gas

2

Policy and solutions / Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction

« on: January 24, 2020, 03:13:10 AM »

https://twitter.com/greentheonly/status/1220479516595933184
Video clip at the link:  Tesla Autopilot correctly identifies two vehicles stacked on a car-carrier as one “truck.”

3

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars

« on: January 24, 2020, 02:43:20 AM »

Volvo emissions cheat found

Gerard Fianen (@gerardfianen) 1/23/20, 6:29 AM
Next one caught for fraud. The @volvocars XC60.
Even with NOx reduction switched on (between 9 and 22 C) the car emits 736 mg/km (note that is 4.1x the max. allowed !).
At temperatures below 6 Celsius a switch-off device becomes active and the car emits 2,148 mg [3x as much] NOx per km (!) twitter.com/advandermeer/s…

- "The uncovered reduction in exhaust emissions in this vehicle during tests via a temperature sensor installed in the exterior mirror has now been confirmed by Volvo".
It is clear @volvocars make people suffer from Asthma and die earlier from COPD.
...
(Via @advandermeer )

Dieselgate erreicht Volvo: Abgasmessungen der Deutsche Umwelthilfe zeigen illegale Abschaltung der Abgasreinigung bei einem Euro 5 Diesel-Volvo XC60 – Deutsche Umwelthilfe e.V.
https://www.duh.de/presse/pressemitteilungen/pressemitteilung/dieselgate-erreicht-volvo-abgasmessungen-der-deutsche-umwelthilfe-zeigen-illegale-abschaltung-der-a/

https://twitter.com/gerardfianen/status/1220307471039967232

4

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: January 24, 2020, 12:53:32 AM »

Giga 4 Berlin

#Gf4 #Gigafactory4 (@Gf4Tesla) 1/22/20, 12:45 PM
On the grounds of the #Gigafactory4, 85 kilograms of explosive ordnance have so far been recovered from almost 60 hectares. It is estimated that there are 220 bomb craters on the site...
sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/aut…

https://twitter.com/gf4tesla/status/1220039868513947648
Photo of German/international “Keep Out” sign at the link.

#Gf4 #Gigafactory4 (@Gf4Tesla) 1/23/20, 6:43 AM
Meanwhile, on the eastern side of the property, teams start to fill a new access road with stone ballast for an access to the [railroad] feeder track for #gigafactory4 ....

https://twitter.com/gf4tesla/status/1220311080695668751
Vid:  Temporary road construction in the Tesla Forest

5

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: January 24, 2020, 12:42:54 AM »

Ihor Dusaniwsky (@ihors3) 1/23/20, 9:35 AM
$TSLA short int is $15.17bn; 26.64mm shs shorted;b19.91% of float; 0.30% borrow fee.

Shs shorted up +343k shs, +1.3%, over last 30 days as price rose +35.9% & up +171k shs, +0.7%, last week.

#Tesla Shorts down -$3.80bn in January mark-to-market losses; +$175mm on today's -1.15% move

https://twitter.com/ihors3/status/1220354303665360898
Graph below: stock price versus number of shares shorted.

—-
In February 2019, in an interview with ArkInvest — after explaining how slight time variances make a big difference in volumes over an exponential curve; so that a “6-month delay” can result in what can look like a “massive shortfall” over a calendar year time frame — Elon Musk said:  “So, my guess, plus or minus 6 to 12 months, is 1.5 million cars for Tesla in 2021.  Probably 3 million in 2023.”

https://ark-invest.com/research/podcast/elon-musk-podcast

6

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars

« on: January 23, 2020, 09:31:51 PM »

OEM forecasts

Alastair Williamson (@StockBoardAsset) 1/22/20, 6:07 AM
UPDATE 2-Daimler warns 2019 profits to halve as problems deepen - Reuters

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 1/22/20, 6:46 AM
This is the fifth revision, and I expect many more to come. Most legacy companies will go bankrupt by 2021.
[Image below.]
"The supply bottleneck comes as carmakers face huge fines next year if they fail to cut their fleet emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) to an average 95 grams per kilometre."
reuters.com/article/us-dai…

"If it fails to make progress cutting its CO2 footprint, Daimler faces a fine of 997 million euros ($1.1 billion)"
"At least 700,000 cars worldwide were designed to cheat"
theverge.com/2019/9/24/2088…

"Daimler will need over a billion euros on top of the €1.6 billion it already set aside to cope with the fallout of an emissions cheating scandal"
dw.com/en/dieselgate-…

https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1220337502264971264

W.R. German (@WRGerman) 11/8/19, 12:35 PM
Meanwhile at Daimler, things are getting serious.
And the company workers' council is furious. Daimler boss demands all employees give up planned raises for 2020, cuts 1100 management positions.

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 11/8/19, 12:39 PM
With such unreasonable demands, many employees at @Daimler will jump ship in the coming weeks.
Daimler, the parent of @MercedesBenz, is on the chopping block for 2020, along with @Groupe_Renault, @Nissan, @Alliance_RNM, @TataMotors, and @JLR_News.

More ICE bankruptcies in 2021.

https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1192859187388305409

=====
Ghosn predicted Nissan will go bankrupt by 2022, lawyer says
The company is suffering from declining car sales in China and Europe, prompting it to slash profit and sales forecasts for the fiscal year ending March 31 and say it would eliminate 12,500 jobs globally.
https://www.autonews.com/executives/ghosn-predicted-nissan-will-go-bankrupt-2022-lawyer-says

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 1/22/20, 7:22 AM
Most legacy automakers will go bankrupt by 2021, and every executive who leaves the industry agrees with us that the future is electric and that Tesla has an insurmountable lead.

https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1219958411472842754

=====

Phil LeBeau (@Lebeaucarnews) 1/17/20, 11:01 AM
Labor costs for Detroit automakers expected to increase upward of $1 billion by 2023 dlvr.it/RNDmdJ

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 1/20/20, 10:10 AM
Detroit automakers won't survive past 2021, so this is a silly forecast.
- Tesla might become the sole employer of US automotive workers as soon as 2021.

https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1219275679092572160

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 1/23/20, 9:49 AM
Toyota may be the only legacy automaker to survive through 2021 with extinction soon after.

https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1220358012646445056

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 1/23/20, 9:36 AM
 I expect [Ford] to leave China soon.
The company's strategy is to sell as many F-Series trucks as possible until the Cybertruck arrives in 2021...

< Hope to be acquired by GM or PSA? Then squeeze pickup buyers even more?
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 1/23/20, 9:56 AM
 Neither company that you mentioned has the capacity to acquire Ford, which has an extreme level of liabilities across its balance sheet.

< So they need to split Ford financial and sell that to a bank like GM did with Ally. Then get acquired/merge. They better get on it.
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 1/23/20, 10:15 AM
Times are different. Who would want a portfolio of ICE leases today? That's suicide!

https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1220354691948781568

7

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: January 23, 2020, 01:51:12 PM »

Yesterday, Tesla overtook Volkswagen to become the second largest automaker in the world by market capitalization.

Tesla Market Cap: 102.63B for Jan. 22, 2020
Volkswagen Market Cap: 99.11B for Jan. 22, 2020
Source:  yCharts

Tesla's Market Cap Just Surged Past $100 Billion, Making It The World's Second Most Valuable Automaker
https://www.tflcar.com/2020/01/tesla-market-cap-100-billion-news/

8

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: January 22, 2020, 09:34:38 PM »

Funds indexed on the S&P will not buy until it is included.

Maybe their index funds won’t buy it, but others...?

9

Policy and solutions / Re: What's New in Climate Change Acceptance and Action

« on: January 22, 2020, 09:31:22 PM »

U.S.

Has Conservative Utah Turned a Corner on Climate Change?

When Utah lawmakers start their legislative session next week, they'll have a roadmap waiting for them that could become one of the nation's most aggressive climate action plans in a Republican-led state—and potentially a path forward for other conservative states looking to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

That the proposal even exists signals a major shift in thinking in a state where legislators for years have publicly questioned—and sometimes ridiculed—climate science. 

Led by a University of Utah economics think tank, proponents of the seven-point strategy managed to dodge political potholes by emphasizing widely supported goals like cleaning up air pollution and stressing economic benefits, an approach some policy experts say could provide a model for bipartisan action on climate change in other conservative states.

"That's the sort of framing that can help change the conversation in a way that does bridge partisan divides," said Jay Turner, an environmental politics and policy researcher at Wellesley College and co-author of the book "The Republican Reversal: Conservatives and the Environment from Nixon to Trump."

 Conservatives in the State Capitol haven't abandoned fossil fuels. They actively support lawsuits to open up West Coast shipping terminals and maintain a $53 million fund to help build export capacity for shipping Utah coal overseas. But widespread public concern about air pollution has also made them more receptive to emissions reductions.

Utah's shift started with high school students raising their voices. In 2018, they succeeded in persuading lawmakers to pass a resolution acknowledging the risks of climate change that Republican Gov. Gary Herbert signed. Then, last year, the legislature voted to provide $200,000 for the University of Utah's business school to report on the state's air pollution and climate change problems and recommend solutions. ...

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/21012020/utah-climate-change-plan-conservative-legislature-coal-emissions-salt-lake

10

Consequences / Re: Floods

« on: January 22, 2020, 09:26:02 PM »

Pumps working to alleviate risk of Oktibbeha dam failure

STARKVILLE, Miss. (WTVA) - Oktibbeha County EMA officials said they are making progress to reduce pressure on the dam at Oktibbeha County Lake.

Excessive rainfall early last week raised the lake’s water level, putting extra pressure on the dam. To prevent the dam from failing, the county is lowering the lake’s water level. Pumps continue to remove water from the lake.

District 3 Supervisor Marvell Howard said the lake is down 3.5 feet since last Tuesday. Their goal is to lower the water level by 5 feet.

With the additional pumps, Howard said the county’s long-term goal is to drain the lake completely in order to remove an outlet tower. ...

https://www.wlbt.com/2020/01/21/pumps-working-alleviate-risk-oktibbeha-dam-failure/

11

Consequences / Re: Floods

« on: January 22, 2020, 09:21:24 PM »

U.S.

FEMA Region 8 (@femaregion8) 1/22/20, 1:51 PM
FEMA and the North Dakota State Water Commission will be hosting a series of meetings to inform the public about the potential for 2020 spring flood threats, and steps people can take to prepare themselves and protect their property.

http://www.swc.nd.gov/info_edu/news_and_media/pdfs/2020_01_10_spring_flood_awareness_meetings.pdf

- The three meetings will include presentations from @fema and the @NWS as well as the @USACEHQ at the Jamestown meeting. Information will be provided on dam operations, current flood forecasts, flood preparedness and mitigation tips, and flood insurance.

https://twitter.com/femaregion8/status/1220056439454150656

12

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: January 22, 2020, 08:58:05 PM »

He did mention he had a short position.
I hope he is not under some bridge.

The rise is insane who the hell is buying such a volatile stock at such high prices ?
If it is a Short squeeze it represents billions in losses.

Institutional investors with index funds that follow the S&P 500 will have to buy (and hold) the stock when Tesla becomes a member, which is fairly certain to happen in 2020.  It would make sense for them to get in early, now that the company’s better footing makes the stock price seem poised to climb further as the year progresses.  Tesla Q4/2019 financial results next week could kick the stock higher.

13

Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution

« on: January 22, 2020, 08:42:09 PM »

Not knowing much about capacitors (yeah, less than even that), I had this idea the moment after I heard that Tesla bought Maxwell - that one could load up a (future 1,000 km range) EV's capacitors really fast (like in 5 minutes - "megacharge"!), then get the car back on the road, and have the capacitors then, at near-optimum rates, charge up the battery.

Same!

It just seems so... logical!  But maybe increasingly fast battery charging brings it close to the time required to safely charge such a capacitor. I look forward to learning why it doesn’t work.  Maybe in Tesla’s upcoming battery and drive train investor day? 

14

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars

« on: January 22, 2020, 08:28:42 PM »

Union of Concerned Scientists: Inequitable Exposure to Air Pollution From Vehicles in the Northeast & Mid-Atlantic U.S.

Opportunities to reduce harmful impacts of vehicle use

Electrification of vehicles

Electrifying both passenger and freight vehicles could greatly reduce emissions. Battery-electric vehicles in particular have no tailpipe emissions (there are minor amounts of PM2.5 emissions from tire and brake wear) and completely avoid emissions associated with refueling. Electricity generation can produce emissions, but these are lower than those produced by an average gasoline car and vary according to the charging location; furthermore, thanks to years of decarbonizing efforts, the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic have greatly reduced emissions from electricity generation. Expansion of electric vehicle rebate programs should provide financing assistance and larger rebates to low- and moderate-income residents. Investments in electric buses should prioritize serving communities exposed to the highest levels of gasoline and diesel emissions.

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/01/22/union-of-concerned-scientists-inequitable-exposure-to-air-pollution-from-vehicles-in-the-northeast-mid-atlantic/

15

Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution

« on: January 22, 2020, 07:20:49 PM »

^^
That sure was a teaser!  Your report, Sig, is about as long as the original!

It seems one quote or a tweet is sufficient to generate an article these days.

16

Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing

« on: January 22, 2020, 07:17:13 PM »

Greta Thunberg guarantees you won’t forget this number

"I know you don’t want to report about this. I know you don’t want to talk about this. But I assure you I will continue to repeat these numbers until you do."

Thunberg's central number is 1.5 Celsius. She's even repeated it in front of a rapt crowd of international diplomats at the U.N. Now in 2020, Thunberg hasn't let up. And according to experts in communication, it's a smart way to convince people of the need to slash society's still-rising carbon emissions.

"I think her messaging is dead-on," said Jennifer Marlon, a research scientist at the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication.

Why repeating 1.5 C is smart

The 1.5 Celsius figure comes from the over 600-page "Global Warming at 1.5 C" U.N. report, which brims with statistics and analysis most people haven't read, and probably won't ever read. But "1.5 C" summarizes why the report, authored by 91 scientists citing over 6,000 studies, matters.

Repeating the figure, even if it's somewhat wonky and contains a decimal, makes the number familiar and meaningful to people, similar to a succinct slogan (ex: "Just Do It").

"She's taking climate change, which is often very mathematical and statistical, and messaging it with a slogan," said Mike Allen, a professor in the Department of Communication at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. "It reduces a complex issue."

"When something is repeated, it's more likely to be picked up," agreed Jeffrey Jarman, an expert on rhetoric from Wichita State University. "Having these kernels of knowledge out there gives people something to hold on to.

"1.5 degrees [C] is an easy number," he added.

"Repeating is powerful."

Though, Thunberg's message isn't just about repetition. She's combining the number with talking points conveying the ethical need to avoid damaging levels of planetary warming — something people her age are bound to inherit. ...

https://mashable.com/article/greta-thunberg-climate-change-message.amp

17

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars

« on: January 22, 2020, 06:36:59 PM »

U.K.

Half price electric cars? Govt incentives in April mean that opting for a salary sacrifice scheme to lease a new EV with your employer can save up £200 per month. Deposit, insurance, maintenance included. 90% of people don’t know this.
https://twitter.com/quentinwillson/status/1219535883076014080

More info: https://tuskercars.com/ulev

Tesla:  Company Car Tax

0% Benefit in Kind
Benefit in Kind (BiK) is tax payable for a company car that is available for private use. The amount of tax depends on the company car and your income tax bracket. Starting in April 2020, all Tesla cars will be eligible for 0% BiK tax. In the tax year 2021-2022, the BiK tax will increase to 1%.

Benefit-in-Kind | Tesla UK
https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/benefit-in-kind

18

Policy and solutions / Re: Aviation

« on: January 22, 2020, 05:45:03 PM »

Nothing like a nasty communicable disease scare to reduce air travel!

Coronavirus outbreak could shave $3 from oil prices, Goldman warns
Wed, Jan 22 2020

The coronavirus outbreak in China could shave $3 from oil prices thanks to a slowdown in air travel, Goldman Sachs warned in a note to clients.

Using the 2002-2003 outbreak of SARS as a reference case, the firm said coronavirus could cause jet fuel demand to drop by 170,000 barrels per day, with overall demand declining by 260,000 barrels per day.

This is roughly 1.6 times larger than the slowdown caused by SARS due to the rapid growth in Asian air travel since the early 2000s. ...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/22/coronavirus-could-shave-3-from-oil-prices-goldman-warns.html

19

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues

« on: January 22, 2020, 05:43:43 PM »

The real threat to oil prices:  the communicable disease scare.  Asian air travel has grown immensely since it plummeted during the SARS outbreak in 2002.

Coronavirus outbreak could shave $3 from oil prices, Goldman warns
Wed, Jan 22 2020

The coronavirus outbreak in China could shave $3 from oil prices thanks to a slowdown in air travel, Goldman Sachs warned in a note to clients.

Using the 2002-2003 outbreak of SARS as a reference case, the firm said coronavirus could cause jet fuel demand to drop by 170,000 barrels per day, with overall demand declining by 260,000 barrels per day.

This is roughly 1.6 times larger than the slowdown caused by SARS due to the rapid growth in Asian air travel since the early 2000s. ...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/22/coronavirus-could-shave-3-from-oil-prices-goldman-warns.html

20

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: January 22, 2020, 05:32:11 PM »

21

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars

« on: January 22, 2020, 05:24:34 PM »

Elon Musk: Tesla acquisition of Maxwell is going to have a very big impact on batteries

On the Tesla Third Row podcast, the CEO said that the advancements in Li-ion battery technology have made ultra-capacitors unnecessary for electric vehicles.

Instead, Musk said that Tesla is looking into using several of Maxwell’s battery technologies.

The CEO said that it’s going to be a “big deal” and that it could have a “very big impact” on their business....

https://electrek.co/2020/01/21/tesla-acquisition-maxwell-big-impact-battery-elon-musk/

Disruption Research (@DisruptResearch) 1/21/20, 1:59 PM
Still amazed by how every automaker passed on the opportunity to outbid @Tesla for Maxwell.
Ironically, this inaction by competitors will likely do more for advancing sustainable energy than all the actions they have collectively taken in EV development thus far.
1/2
https://twitter.com/disruptresearch/status/1219696121179713537

- By bidding on Maxwell, @elonmusk gave everyone heads up that Maxwell has the tech worth acquiring, after expressing skepticism on most emerging battery tech.
And competitors let Tesla have it for ~$200M, or ~0.2% of $TSLA's current market cap.
Thank you, Detroit & Germany.
2/2

< The inability of ICE incumbents to value the Maxwell opportunity is a revealing testimony of not understanding battery technology.
- DR:  I imagine the decision went like this:
Board: Tesla bid for Maxwell. We need to review this.
CEO: Sure - let me ask my guy. Hey, didn't you say you don't like Maxwell?
R&D Head: Yes. I stand by my previous assessment (or I will look dumb)
CEO: My guy says we pass.
Board: Ok.

< Maxwell tech [would] be on a shelf if GM had purchased.
<< Locked up in a vault - never to see light of day

22

Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution

« on: January 22, 2020, 05:17:26 PM »

Elon Musk: Tesla acquisition of Maxwell is going to have a very big impact on batteries

On the Tesla Third Row podcast, the CEO said that the advancements in Li-ion battery technology have made ultra-capacitors unnecessary for electric vehicles.

Instead, Musk said that Tesla is looking into using several of Maxwell’s battery technologies.

The CEO said that it’s going to be a “big deal” and that it could have a “very big impact” on their business....

https://electrek.co/2020/01/21/tesla-acquisition-maxwell-big-impact-battery-elon-musk/

23

Policy and solutions / Re: Aviation

« on: January 22, 2020, 04:49:30 PM »

At least they are trying....

Sustainable aviation fuel for planes to and from Davos… finally

The Business Aviation Coalition for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF Coalition), the World Economic Forum (WEF), and Zurich Airport have announced initiatives to reduce aviation emissions.

First, the use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) will lower emissions for flights to and from Davos this year, and secondly, it will help support the aviation industry’s effort to expand the use of SAF.

Jet Aviation and World Fuel Services is making SAF available for aircraft leaving Switzerland as delegates depart Davos, Switzerland.

Further, as the SAF Coalition explains:

Under a payment-transfer initiative known as ‘book-and-claim,’ operators for the first time will be able to purchase SAF even at airports where it’s not available. Under the program, for each gallon of conventional fuel purchased at Teterboro Airport outside New York City, Hanscom Field in the Boston area and Dulles International Airport, Washington, D.C.’s main international terminal, an equivalent amount of conventional fuel will be replaced with SAF on flights departing from Van Nuys airport in the Los Angeles area.

Sustainable aviation fuels are carbon-cutting turbine fuels, made from bio-based or other sources, which can reduce a flight’s emissions by as much as 80%. It’s currently available in limited quantities but is produced from renewable sources. It works exactly the same as conventional fuel. ...

https://electrek.co/2020/01/22/sustainable-aviation-fuel-saf-davos-planes/

24

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: January 22, 2020, 04:06:05 PM »

U.S.:  The state of Michigan, being home to the big, old, established Detroit ICE automakers, who — and particularly their dealers associations — have been fighting Tesla hard.  So this is big news.

Tesla And Michigan Reach Settlement For Direct Delivery To Customers

Electric vehicles maker Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) has reached a settlement with the state of Michigan in a 2016 lawsuit the company filed against the state's governor and other officials for an "anti-Tesla" law.

What Happened
The Palo Alto-based automaker can now deliver its vehicles directly to the customers in the state, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday.

The vehicles will still need to be titled in another state, but can then be transferred to the state, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg.

Tesla will also be able to operate service centers in the state through a subsidiary, the publication noted. ...

https://m.benzinga.com/article/15160476


Edit: Michigan must be seeing the writing on the wall. Its biggest employers are dying, and it’s hard to woo a potential lifesaver to the state if they can’t even sell their cars there.

25

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: January 22, 2020, 03:32:52 PM »

First that the Tesla "low" of 2019 was an artificial bubble driven by shorts making up their own story on Tesla. Meaning that the meteoric rise was not some bull run but a market correction on a short distorted market.  Which means that the share price will not fall significantly again until the shorts have a viable story to drive the markets down.

Second that the hugely distorted short position on Tesla has caused a different earnings opportunity where the rest of the market can make a killing on short covering and that they can keep doing this for as long as the shorts stay in the game and Tesla keeps pumping out even moderately good news.

We shall see if this is the case. If it is, the shorts are in for a very long and uncomfortable ride on Tesla.

Interesting. This would mean that Tesla long positions are not only expecting company value to rise but they are also betting against the shorts. 

And when the valuation climbs Tesla must look more and more overvalued to short sellers.

Tesla stock recommendations have long been, and continue to be, extremely bipolar.

26

The rest / Re: SpaceX

« on: January 22, 2020, 02:52:20 PM »

BTW there is an amazing podcast with Hans Koenigsmann, employee number 4 at SpaceX.

In German language though.

Link >> https://raumzeit-podcast.de/2020/01/17/rz083-spacex/

So, tell us what he says! (begging)


======= Edit:

SpaceX (@SpaceX) 1/23/20, 11:11 AM
Weather in the recovery area continues to be unfavorable so team is now targeting Monday, January 27 for launch of Starlink, pending Range availability

https://twitter.com/spacex/status/1220378488680697856

27

The rest / Re: SpaceX

« on: January 22, 2020, 02:36:26 PM »

Waves in the recovery zone off the Florida coast are 12-15 feet (4-5m)! 
SpaceX is now targeting their next launch for Friday January 24 at 10:54 a.m. EST, 15:54 UTC, for launch of 60 Starlink satellites; team is continuing to monitor weather in the recovery area.
Falcon 9’s first stage supporting this mission previously launched off LC-39A and from SpaceX’s West Coast launch pad.

While we wait, let’s catch up on Starship, and the competition:

New buildings going up at Boca Chica, a new Starship tank being built, and a road and beach closure:

Elon Musk (@elonmusk)1/22/20, 12:45 AM
Improved Accommodations
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1219858516619358208
Image below.

Chris B - NSF (@NASASpaceflight) 1/22/20, 6:11 AM
The likely reason there's a new road closure notice.
Bopper 2.0.
Would also explain why they were filling up the LN2 tanks at the launch site again:
youtu.be/9Usbu7LzJUQ
- …yeah, we'll have to wait and see - but with the road closure notice and the tank filling, that's what makes me think this is another test tank [this time with cryogenics]
Let's see what Elon spills on this one.
Never a dull day in Boca Chica.

< Bopper 2.0: The revenge

Mary (@BocaChicaGal) 1/21/20, 7:06 PM
There is a planned Hwy. 4 and Boca Chica beach closure for SpaceX activities at Boca Chica on January 25, 2020 from 10:00 p.m. to 2:00 a.m.

https://twitter.com/bocachicagal/status/1219773234507403269
ScreenCap of closure notice at the link.

——-
“This is part of the game of us learning to work with a commercial provider,” Santora said.
Tesla, SpaceX confirm Model X will be official ride of astronauts
From suit-up area to the launch pad
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-x-spacex-astronauts-transportation/

—-
Update on Boeing’s OFT failure last month
The NASA source said eight or more thrusters on the service module failed at one point and that one thruster never fired at all.
Starliner’s thruster performance receiving close scrutiny from NASA
“Many of the elements of the propulsion system were overstressed.”
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/01/nasa-and-boeing-are-closely-looking-at-starliners-thruster-performance/
Eric Berger - 1/21/2020

—-
Finally, the “Geez, NASA, what gives?!” article SpaceX supporters have been waiting for:
SpaceX Crew Dragon spacecraft sails home after flawless in-flight abort test
By Eric Ralph, January 19, 2020
https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-crew-dragon-sails-back-to-port-flawless-launch/

28

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars

« on: January 22, 2020, 04:17:34 AM »

A recent study says new software updates fix the German diesel emissions problem.  But independent testing tells a much different story.

Diesel scandal New measurements put Mercedes under pressure
 January 21, 2020

Are the Daimler diesel engines really clean after the software updates?  New measurements make this questionable.
 
 The Stuttgart-based automaker calls diesel cars to the workshop for a software update.  However, measurements now show that some cars then emit even large amounts of the toxic nitrogen oxide.

 Was that the diesel scandal?  The Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt (KBA) suggests this conclusion in a study dated January 10: "Software updates lead to a significant improvement in emissions behavior," it says.  A positive effect can be demonstrated, especially at low temperatures.  "The requirements from the National Diesel Forum of August 2017 have been significantly exceeded," said the Flensburg authorities with euphoria.
 
However, new measurements by independent researchers show that the reality looks very different.  Emissions Analytics, a British testing institute, checked at the manufacturer Mercedes what effect the official software updates have.  The result: some of the diesel cars tested even emit larger amounts of the toxic nitrogen oxide than before the update.  The measurements were accompanied by a camera team from the ZDF magazine Frontal 21, the results are available to the SZ.

 On the test bench, diesel with the Euro 5 pollutant standard is relatively clean, but the emissions in road traffic deteriorate rapidly.  Therefore, only precisely documented, uniform road tests can clarify whether the problem has been solved.  Portable emission measuring devices are the fridge-sized parts that are needed for this.

 The Federal Motor Transport Authority is satisfied with the manufacturers
 Most recently, an older Mercedes C-Class with thick exhaust pipes could be seen again and again at the Daimler headquarters in Stuttgart-Untertürkheim.  However, the emissions specialists from Emissions Analytics were at the wheel.  In December and January, the Euro 5 diesel took its measurement laps at an outside temperature of 12 degrees Celsius.  What the English found out during the ten-kilometer test drives will not please Daimler boss Ola Källenius.  And it is in stark contrast to the recently published KBA report on software updates.  Källenius tries to paint the company green.  At the start of the year, he had philosophized in front of 2000 spectators about the harmony between man and nature.  His speech at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas was followed by the presentation of a "zero impact car".

 In the brand's workshops, the shutdown devices that have been uncovered are eliminated by means of a software update.  The new engine control system is also intended to reduce nitrogen oxide emissions (NOx) in road traffic.  However, the latest measurements in Stuttgart cannot confirm this, on the contrary: According to an official software update from Mercedes, the nine-year-old diesel emits 11 percent more of these irritant gases - even though the test conditions before and after were practically identical.  Even if you calculate a measurement inaccuracy of seven percent, the result with 792 milligrams of NOx is four times the Euro 5 limit of 180 mg / km.  Although this limit applies to the test cycle in the laboratory, the striking deviations in real operation are a major cause of the bad air in many cities.  Mercedes did not want to comment on the test report when asked by ZDF.

 Mercedes is not an isolated case, in total the software of 6.3 million diesel vehicles in Germany had to be revised.  "It turned out that many manufacturers adapt the effectiveness of their emissions control system to driving and environmental conditions, such as ambient temperatures," says the 140-page KBA report.

 After the software updates, the authority issues a positive certificate to the manufacturers.  Instead of the agreed NOx reduction of 25-30 percent, nitrogen oxide emissions were reduced by an average of around 41 percent after forced recall.  Through voluntary service measures, the car manufacturers would have achieved an average improvement of 59 percent in road tests.

 The new measurements by the British examiners put this into doubt.  And other experts are at least skeptical.  "To be on the safe side, we checked ourselves," says catalyst specialist Martin Pley, who offers hardware retrofits for diesel: "In Daimler vehicles, we see a NOx improvement of just seven percent due to the software update."  Axel Friedrich from the German Environmental Aid (DUH) can only confirm a nitrogen oxide reduction of 12.5 percent across all brands.  The KBA publication also shows significant shortcomings: the measurements in real operation, for example, lack the associated CO₂ values.

 The Federal Motor Transport Authority does not issue the measurement reports - in contrast to other test authorities abroad.  The Dutch research organization TNO, for example, measured a VW Polo TDI of emission level Euro 5 in road traffic for two years.  The more than 20-page study commissioned by the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure proves that the average nitrogen oxide emissions did not change before and after the software update.

Google translate, from:
Dieselskandal Neue Messwerte setzen Mercedes unter Druck
https://www.sueddeutsche.de/auto/mercedes-diesel-softwareupdate-1.4765550!amp?__twitter_impression=true

29

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: January 22, 2020, 03:21:36 AM »

Ontario, Canada buyer says Tesla called him about finalizing his Model Y delivery, saying Performance models would be available next month — and they told him all configurations would be available by Q3!

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 1/21/20, 7:59 PM
Interesting... but how?!
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1219786642594107393
Image of the Canadian’s post at the link.
- Model 3 ramp to all configs took 2 yrs

——
New Street Research

Pierre Ferragu (@p_ferragu) 1/21/20, 9:27 AM
1) We increased our $TSLA price target to $800 today. Worth noting, though, our initial target of $530 was set in 2018, so 2 years down the line, compounded 20% p.a., $800 is the right place to be. Not much has changed in our conviction!
https://twitter.com/p_ferragu/status/1219627618900815873
- 2) Our conviction is simple: beyond 2025, Tesla could sell 2-3m premium cars a year, at industry leading margins, with structural share gains. On our math, it means $1100-1700 per share by then.
3) In the meantime, the stock will remain volatile, as the spread between the bear and the bull cases remain wide. Buckle up for another ride!

30

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars

« on: January 22, 2020, 02:49:03 AM »

Los Angeles, California.  Lives in a condo with no charging near her assigned parking spot, but there are many nearby Level 2 chargers.

Tesla Joy (@TeslaJoy) 1/20/20, 6:50 PM
Topped off my battery again so I can drive back to LA in one shot. Now rated range is up to 312 miles on 100% battery. My car is a little over 15K miles and is 18 months old. Not seeing any battery degradation yet. Sweet!
https://twitter.com/teslajoy/status/1219406969712197633
[Image of StatsTesla app screen at the link.]
- I supercharge 1-2 times a week between 20%-90% typically.

Can You Own A Tesla Without A Home Charger?

31

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: January 22, 2020, 02:10:55 AM »

David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital hedge fund had a “previously described as LARGE Jan 2020 put position” that is now worthless.

https://twitter.com/barkmsmeagol/status/1219755147129081857

32

Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change

« on: January 22, 2020, 01:06:17 AM »

Highest Atmospheric Pressure in More than 300 Years of London Recordkeeping

According to UK climatology expert Stephen Burt (Department of Meteorology, University of Reading), the mean sea level barometric pressure at Heathrow Airport reached 1049.6 mb (30.99”) at midnight GMT Sunday night (7 p.m. EST).

Not only is this a record for Heathrow, beating 1047.3 mb from February 7, 1964, but it’s also the highest barometric pressure recorded in London in more than 300 years of recordkeeping, Burt said in a summary. ...

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Highest-Atmospheric-Pressure-More-300-Years-London-Recordkeeping

33

Policy and solutions / Re: What's New in Climate Change Acceptance and Action

« on: January 22, 2020, 12:58:48 AM »

Oil and gas sector ‘losing its social licence to operate’, UK boss warns

Tim Eggar, chairman of the UK’s Oil and Gas Authority (OGA), sent shockwaves through the industry on Wednesday (15 January) when he said growing public awareness about climate change was putting the sector’s very survival at stake.

Shifting public attitudes towards climate change is “the biggest challenge” facing the oil and gas industry, Eggar said in a speech to industry leaders this week.

“Clearly, climate change is happening right now. That debate is over,” he told industry delegates in Aberdeen, according to a transcript of his speech published on the OGA’s website.

The oil and gas industry must “act much, much faster and go farther in reducing the carbon footprint” he said, adding: “This requires ambitious thinking, capital investment and bold leadership. Action not just talk or more analysis.”

Failing to do so would have dire consequences for the oil and gas sector, Eggar warned, saying the industry’s very survival is at stake.

“The licence to operate for the industry has changed fundamentally and – unlike the oil price – forever,” he said. “If the industry wants to survive and contribute to the energy transition it has to adapt,” he stressed. ...

https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/oil-and-gas-sector-losing-its-social-licence-to-operate-uk-boss-warns/

34

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues

« on: January 22, 2020, 12:57:21 AM »

Oil and gas sector ‘losing its social licence to operate’, UK boss warns

Tim Eggar, chairman of the UK’s Oil and Gas Authority (OGA), sent shockwaves through the industry on Wednesday (15 January) when he said growing public awareness about climate change was putting the sector’s very survival at stake.

Shifting public attitudes towards climate change is “the biggest challenge” facing the oil and gas industry, Eggar said in a speech to industry leaders this week.

“Clearly, climate change is happening right now. That debate is over,” he told industry delegates in Aberdeen, according to a transcript of his speech published on the OGA’s website.

The oil and gas industry must “act much, much faster and go farther in reducing the carbon footprint” he said, adding: “This requires ambitious thinking, capital investment and bold leadership. Action not just talk or more analysis.”

Failing to do so would have dire consequences for the oil and gas sector, Eggar warned, saying the industry’s very survival is at stake.

“The licence to operate for the industry has changed fundamentally and – unlike the oil price – forever,” he said. “If the industry wants to survive and contribute to the energy transition it has to adapt,” he stressed. ...

https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/oil-and-gas-sector-losing-its-social-licence-to-operate-uk-boss-warns/

35

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: January 21, 2020, 10:57:19 PM »

Buying an OEM would make Tesla responsible for service, warranties, (dealer contracts! ) etc. on that company’s existing ICE fleet.  No way!

Edit:  Still, this idea is an interesting switch from a few months ago when some Tesla bears on this board generously suggested that an OEM might buy Tesla, just to keep it as a niche offering.

36

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: January 21, 2020, 09:00:20 PM »

Part 1 of this highly anticipated interview with Elon Musk is now up. 
This segment focuses mostly on his early days, before the rise of Tesla.  But as you can see from the outline below, it covers a lot of subjects.  Participants are listed below, but surprise guests also appear!

Third Row Tesla Podcast – Elon's Story
Published on Jan 20, 2020
Elon Musk is known for many different things – however, not many people seem to know a lot about Elon as a person, what led to him putting everything on the line to build SpaceX & Tesla, and why he continues pushing for a better future. 

In this video, Elon is sharing his story – raw & (almost) uncut.
Timestamps:
01:21 - Can you talk about the way you engage with customers online?
03:21 - Why do you like Twitter so much?
06:38 - What sticks out to you out of the things you've achieved?
Answer somehow get to stocks and money - and economics and other topics..
14:01 - Talking about this location
15:38 - Not enough people understand how Elon tries to make big changes with small products
17:03 - Did you always know you wanted to use business to solve problems?
26:23 - Why go and put your money to SpaceX?
28:32 - Why did you try to get capacitors into EV's back then?
30:31 - Maxwell
31:27 - Other car companies batteries
35:09 - Why was China the place chosen for GF3?
36:39 - How did Tesla manage to get the first fully owned car factory in China?
38:06 - How much have the production hell lessons helped you for the China factory?
41:28 - What are the misconceptions about your personal history that you would want to correct?
43:31 - Share more about your upbringing and why you came to North America.
53:00 - What did people think about Zip2?
58:26 - Kimbal shows up and they talk about Zip2
1:03:45 - Where did you get the technical knowledge to build Zip2?
1:05:14 - Do you still code?
1:19:42 - What made you do PayPal?
1:28:07 - So what made you part ways with PayPal?
1:29:31 - You seem to be attracted to crazy ideas, how do you find the courage?
1:32:57 - You love code but you don't seem to be bullish on Bitcoin, why is that?
1:35:40 - Would there be a direct democracy in Mars? What kind of laws?
1:42:35 - Start of SpaceX
1:49:30 - Did you think you are going to do dozens of launches a year?
1:53:45 - Early SpaceX
1:58:46 - Start of Tesla
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Find us on:
Our website: https://thirdrowtesla.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/thirdrowtesla

Links to the Third Row Crew members:
Sofiaan Fraval - https://teslasof.com
Steve Jobs Ghost - https://wholemars.net
Vincent Yu - https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesma...
Vivien Hantusch - https://www.vivien.space/
Kristen K10 - https://twitter.com/kristennetten
Galileo Russell - https://youtube.com/hyperchangetv

Kimbal's old rocket site mentioned in the video: https://kwajrockets.blogspot.com/

37

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: January 21, 2020, 08:51:49 PM »

gerontocrat wrote:

And why buy the company that owns [the factories]?

I agree.  Very soon the OEM’s ICE assets will be worth next to nothing, and their debts will be massive — including pensions.

Tesla has a blueprint for gigafactories now; one that is much more efficient than any ICE factory, or even Fremont.  Better to start from scratch, and include sustainable designs rather than tacking them on later.

38

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: January 21, 2020, 04:05:31 PM »

 

39

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars

« on: January 21, 2020, 03:48:29 PM »

VW ID.3 delayed again.  Jan 15 UK email for a regular model (not the limited First Edition) says:
"Keep an eye out for price and specification details in early 2020. Then in spring of next year, we will be in touch again inviting you to purchase your ID.3 within a specific window of time."
...
Note:  If GF4 stays on schedule, mid-2021 will be about the same release date as the made-in-Germany Model Y....

This reminds me of the fiasco with the Audi e-tron early orders/reservations, the deadline for which was before the tested specs were to set to be released.  Looks like VW also wants potential buyers to order quickly in 2021, before they have time to think, or compare the ID.3 with the Model Y. 

Or, VW simply has no intention of mass-producing the car.  (Beyond the thousands of unsellable ones already filling up parking lots awaiting fixes.)

For comparison, some prospective Tesla owners are still holding onto a reservation they made years ago, waiting for just the right time....

40

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: January 21, 2020, 02:52:28 PM »

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 1/17/20, 4:55 PM
Munro’s analysis of Tesla engineering is accurate, both pro & con. I think he will appreciate some elements of the Model Y body design.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1218290871126216704

Musk’s comment was responding to a tweet about this article:
Tesla Cybertruck's engineering and design might be genius -- here's why
Sandy Munro, the wunderkind of lean auto industry manufacturing, gives his analysis -- and paints a pretty picture for Tesla.
January 17, 2020
https://www.cnet.com/google-amp/news/tesla-cybertruck-engineering-steel-production-sandy-munroe/

Although Sandy has not seen the Cybertruck personally, people who work for him have.

Below is Sandy’s graph (from the video) breaking out how manufacturing costs are allocated to different vehicle systems.  The “electric” numbers are from the Model 3.

41

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: January 21, 2020, 02:49:04 PM »

Earl of Frunkpuppy (@28delayslater) 1/19/20, 6:59 AM
The SEC was concerned about Elon’s tweets that may be “market moving” but is fine when a Tesla short seller / non-owner gets a government agency [NHTSA] to investigate a false Tesla issue leading to a stock price drop to enrich himself

https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1218865542842339330

42

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: January 20, 2020, 10:25:52 PM »

Tesla Model 3's 2019 China registrations show 161% increase year-over-year

Tesla posted 6,643 new vehicle registrations in China last December, helping push the company’s 2019 total to 42,715. This corresponds to a 161% increase compared to 2018, when the Palo Alto, California-based car manufacturer hit the 16,360 mark in China.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-china-sales-161-percent-increase-yoy/

—-
Sandy Munro:  tooling costs for 600,000 vehicles
Ford F-150:  $615 million   
Tesla Cybertruck: $125 million 

Deconstructing The Tooling Cost on Tesla’s Cybertruck - Autoline After Hours 492 - YouTube

43

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: January 20, 2020, 10:21:12 PM »

Rumors, news and analysis

—- Model Y

Moez (@moez) 1/18/20, 3:32 PM
CONFIRMED from a Tesla employee. Model Y first deliveries happening in 2 weeks.#Tesla #TSLA

https://twitter.com/moez/status/1218632207142510592

—— Giga Berlin

#Gf4 #Gigafactory4 (@Gf4Tesla) 1/19/20, 9:40 AM
According to Tagesspiegel information, Tesla has signed the purchase contract for Gigafactory4 in Grünheide. Following Brandenburg's state parliament, the company's top management under Elon Musk from the USA has now given the green light for the contract.
amp.tagesspiegel.de/berlin/kaufver…

https://twitter.com/gf4tesla/status/1218905960606990336


==== China

特拉风 T☰SLA mania (@Tesla__Mania) 1/20/20, 10:24 AM
Update from my source:
Second shift at Giga Shanghai will be added around mid February.

https://twitter.com/tesla__mania/status/1219279618793857024

—-

Ming Zhao (@mingcalls) 1/19/20, 6:34 PM
[size=pt]Shanghai $TSLA Jingan store check Sunday: red &black delivery time June; the other three colors delivery time end of April. Saving rmb 80k plate fee makes a rmb <300k car even more attractive! People mountain people sea.[/size]

https://twitter.com/mingcalls/status/1219040479234293762
Photo at the link.

——
(JAN 19）The second phase of the production line is under construction\Tesla GF 3 in shanghai特斯拉上海工厂


Around minute 11+ you can see many buses.  (There is almost no employee parking.)


—- Tariffs
Tesla May Be Only Big Winner in U.S. Batteries Bound for China
January 15, 2020

(Bloomberg) -- Terms of Trade is a daily newsletter that untangles a world embroiled in trade wars.

Tesla Inc. may be the single largest beneficiary of a provision tucked into the trade deal between the U.S. and China.

As part of the accord signed Wednesday, China will import more energy storage systems and parts from the U.S. this year and next. Tesla’s Gigafactory in Nevada is by far the largest battery plant in the U.S., representing 42% of nationwide production, according to data from BloombergNEF. No other manufacturer in America comes close to its capacity.
…
China is, by far, the world’s biggest battery producer, with factories capable of cranking out 275,560 megawatt-hours worth of cells. The U.S. trails as a distant second, at 33,116 megawatt-hours, according to BloombergNEF data.

https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/tesla-may-only-big-winner-180927044.html

—- World
Tesla Model 3 ends 2019 as the best selling pure EV in the US, Norway, Netherlands, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden (& UK?).
2nd in France where Renault Zoe took top place & 2nd to Nissan Leaf in Portugal.
3rd in Germany just behind Renault Zoe & the evergreen BMW i3, which all had sales between 9,000 & 9,500.

Tesla Sales — Global & Country by Country
This page is dedicated to sharing recent highlights of Tesla sales in various markets and market segments
https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/

44

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars

« on: January 20, 2020, 09:56:06 PM »

Twitter discussion on IONITY’s massive charging price hike.  Is it simply another way for OEMs to make sure no one will buy the EVs they don’t want to make in the first place?

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 1/19/20, 12:28 PM
The decision of @IONITY_EU, a charging network owned by legacy automakers, to multiply its prices is a grave mistake and will only increase demand for Teslas across Europe.
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1218948276780699650
< Hehe. They are making a compliance network. I guess, they want to portray EVs as expensive on all fronts so they can continue to sell ICE.
<< Trouble is it will eliminate Ionity as a charging option for most Model 3 drivers, increasing the load on Supercharger network. Either Tesla spend more to expand it or there will be queues. Both is costly for Tesla, either in money or reputation. Won't stop Tesla though.
VA:  It's a temporary incremental cost to the current Tesla owners until Tesla expands its Supercharger network in affected areas in response to this grave mistake by @IONITY_EU that is trying to milk as much in profits as possible out of the people who trusted legacy automakers.
> Most of the owners of ionity (like Audi, VW, Mercedes...) are subsidizing charging for their own cars. This move essentially trying to make it really expensive for Teslas to charge there.
VA: As if that's going to help their sales...
> No it's obviously not gonna... Tesla. owners are still able to charge there if they really need to and the Supercharger Network is much bigger anyway...
>> EU EVs are not massively cheaper than a Tesla (if at all) and their cost of operation just went up massively.
VA: Can you imagine how the current non-Tesla EV owners must feel?
VA:  Major failure. Horrendous strategy.
VA:  You guys are overthinking this... Even without this, Tesla would have sold the vast majority of EVs in Europe in 2020, and the damage to IONITY brand has already been done... have you seen the pushback and replies to their announcement?
<> They don't want people to actually want to buy EVs. They want to sell as few compliance cars as possible and hope Tesla fails, or some supplier comes along with everything they need to compete. Time is running out on both of those options.

45

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars

« on: January 20, 2020, 09:42:53 PM »

Tasha Keeney (@TashaARK) 1/17/20, 11:50 AM
European autos seem to be the most in trouble. The US and China have more aggressively pursued autonomous driving and electric cars. Seems like Europe will see the first wave of consolidation and company failure.

https://twitter.com/tashaark/status/1218213908252635136

Germany plans aid for struggling auto industry

BERLIN -- Chancellor Angela Merkel's government is preparing measures to aid workers in Germany's struggling auto sector, according to the labor ministry.

Labor Minister Hubertus Heil plans to introduce wage subsidies for automakers and their suppliers to prevent possible job losses if the downturn in the sector continues, his ministry said in response to questions from Bloomberg. A similar mechanism was used successfully during the financial crisis of 2008 to prevent mass layoffs.

The government is hosting talks with labor union and company representatives on Wednesday to discuss the plans, which would still require parliamentary approval.  The meeting is not expected to produce a final decision, as the government itself cannot agree on the timing. While Heil, who is part of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), is pushing for a swift implementation, Merkel's ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU) wants the Bundestag, the lower house in parliament, to have the final say on a time line.

Automakers in Europe's largest economy had a turbulent 2019 as an economic slowdown coincided with a transition to electric and self-driving cars. Additionally, concerns about higher tariffs caused by the U.S.-China trade war stoked fears of a deteriorating environment for the industry.

PSA Group's German division, Opel, said on Tuesday that it will cut up to 4,100 jobs, joining rivals around the globe in retrenching amid a sales slowdown and technological disruption.

"The car sector is undergoing a difficult transition phase and needs more flexibility to respond to a slowdown," the SPD's deputy leader in the Bundestag, Carsten Schneider, told reporters Wednesday in Berlin.

Wage subsidies allow companies to keep employees on their payroll during a downturn, but under current legislation are only allowed if the labor market as a whole is in trouble. Heil wants to introduce subsidies for specific sectors in trouble, such as the automotive industry. Under his proposal the government would pay social security contributions if a worker cuts back his or her working hours to take on vocational training.

For January, the labor ministry expects 113,500 workers on a reduced workload program. During the financial crisis, the number peaked at 1.4 million in 2009.

https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/germany-plans-aid-struggling-auto-industry

46

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars

« on: January 20, 2020, 09:36:59 PM »

VW ID.3 delayed again.  Jan 15 UK email for a regular model (not the limited First Edition) says:
"Keep an eye out for price and specification details in early 2020. Then in spring of next year, we will be in touch again inviting you to purchase your ID.3 within a specific window of time."

VW Again ! Delayed The Long Waiting ID.3 to Spring 2021
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/vw-again-delayed-the-long-waiting-id-3-to-spring-2021

< I can't wrap my head around the idea that a software issue could be the reason to delay delivery of cars 8 months away. Do they have only one programmer on their staff?
TechFan (@Official_Rich_H) 1/18/20, 4:30 AM
It's sound pretty incredible if reports are true. Sounds like the hardware and software teams were not aligned & when they brought it together it didn't work. They need to get the OTA updates working before they can ship it. Original plan was 1st edition release in summer 2020.

https://twitter.com/official_rich_h/status/1218465660143046656
More discussion at the link....
“I honestly don't think they understand that the future of cars is software not hardware. I feel for the traditional manufacturers. I think everyone underestimated the changes they need to make to compete. Tesla are now way ahead.”

Note:  If GF4 stays on schedule, mid-2021 will be about the same release date as the made-in-Germany Model Y....

—-

GM's Electric Hummer and Pickup Plans May Jolt Future Earnings Higher

GM is now bringing the Hummer back, transformed into an all-electric truck -- the exact opposite of the ecosystem-ravaging gas guzzler of yore. Besides the nameplate, GM intends to make the vehicle resemble the earlier Hummer, tapping strongly into brand recognition and nostalgia. Specific Hummer models will include a pickup truck -- probably launched first in late 2021 or early 2022 -- and a large off-road-capable SUV.

GM already specializes in large pickups and SUVs, earning over 70% of its income from these vehicles and controlling approximately 70% of its US market. Such machines offer high manufacturer profit margins, up to 30%. SUVs and pickups are gaining in popularity, with some forecasting SUVs to account for 50% of all new passenger vehicle sales in the US this year. The growth of electric vehicle demand remains more uncertain, but based on buying of minerals used to make lithium-ion batteries, they may represent 8.2% of American auto purchases in 2020. …

An electrifying strategic direction
2022 is an important year for GM to establish its continuing viability in the face of electric pickup and SUV competition. By then the Tesla Cybertruck pickup truck from Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), Byton's Chinese-made M-Byte SUV, and the electric R1T pickup truck and R1S SUV from Rivian Automotive should be in showrooms.

Besides matching its competitors, GM's electric vehicles serve as an important hedge against regulatory changes. California wants to return to emissions standards enacted during the Obama presidency, though Donald Trump's administration may block this. By pursuing both gasoline and electric model development, GM stays competitive in the Golden State no matter what. It also prepares for possible nationwide emissions law changes should they come about in the future. …

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/01/18/gms-electric-hummer-and-pickup-plans-may-jolt-futu.aspx


—- Sales ——
Germany in 2019: The Renault Zoe, BMW i3 and Tesla Model 3 were the top EV sellers, each just over 9,000 cars.
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/01/19/renault-zoe-wins-2019-ev-model-trophy-in-germany-bmw-wins-manufacturer-trophy/

—-
U.S. EV selection is poor and Tesla Model 3 now sends much of its production overseas.

Fossil Vehicle Sales In Global Freefall — Down 4.7% In 2019!  Electric Vehicle Sales Continue To Grow
January 18th, 2020 by Dr. Maximilian Holland

The world’s fossil fuel vehicle sales have continued to freefall in 2019, dropping by around 4.35 million, or some 4.7%, compared to 2018, accelerating a now inexorable trend. Global electric vehicle sales meanwhile have continued to rise, with 2019 EV market share reaching 4.7% in China and 3.8% in Europe. (Note that “electric vehicles” in this report concerns both fully electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids.)

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/01/18/fossil-vehicle-sales-in-global-freefall-down-4-7-in-2019-electric-vehicle-sales-continue-to-grow/

47

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars

« on: January 20, 2020, 08:44:21 PM »

Collapsing lithium prices may incrementally help [Made In China] margins in 2020, but more importantly, this confirms that the supply of Lithium is more than enough to support Tesla's planned growth in the near term and can be ramped quickly when needed.

https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1217439873365352450
Lithium price graph below.

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International Code Council calls for all new homes to be ready for 240-volt EV charging

Building codes are a labyrinth of national, state, and municipal rules. While California since 2015 has required new homes to have the necessary conduit and service-panel capacity for EV-charging, guidelines in the rest of the country are spotty. That could soon be fixed because the International Code Council (ICC) – which provides widely adopted best practices and standards for construction ­– approved putting EV-readiness in its latest guidelines. ...

https://electrek.co/2020/01/15/international-code-council-calls-for-all-new-homes-to-be-ready-for-240-volt-ev-charging/

48

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues

« on: January 20, 2020, 08:21:02 PM »

Protests Target a ‘Carbon Bomb’ Linking Two Major Pipelines Outside Boston

WEYMOUTH, Massachusetts — After endless public hearings, drawn-out government appeals and fruitless legal proceedings, a band of community and climate activists was left to this: Sitting in the path of a concrete truck at the site where a large natural gas compressor is being built outside Boston.

They were five years on in their bid to block a facility that would play a crucial role in completing a pipeline project that seeks to ship hydraulically fractured gas from New Jersey to Canada. The site in Weymouth is near two low-income communities with sizable minority populations already facing high levels of pollution from other fossil fuel infrastructure.

"The Fore River Basin is already toxically overburdened with close to 10 different polluting facilities within a one mile radius," said Alice Arena, president and executive director of Fore River Residents Against the Compressor Station and a Weymouth resident. "It is highly populated, it is [an] environmental justice [community] and it is unconscionable to be adding another polluting facility." ...

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/17012020/Massachusetts-protest-pipeline-carbon-bomb-boston-weymouth-fore-river

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A federal appeals court decision Jan. 7 tossed out a state permit for construction of a natural gas pipeline compressor station
In Virginia, anti-pipeline activists feel ‘justice was served’ with court ruling

The momentous decision by a three-judge panel from the Richmond-based 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals is potentially a huge setback for Dominion Energy’s pipeline and a gargantuan gain for environmental justice in a state where that topic is only recently being broached. ...

https://energynews.us/2020/01/15/southeast/in-virginia-anti-pipeline-activists-feel-justice-was-served-with-court-ruling/

49

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD

« on: January 20, 2020, 05:47:27 PM »

Sigmetnow, these 'warehouse farms' are interesting but I wonder how they will pollinate their plants.
To me it seems not possible to sustainably isolate the growing of crops from the ecosystem (outside). Some things have to give and deteriorate I expect.

Today, they are growing fresh leafy vegetables in a warehouse in New Jersey, U.S..
No doubt the practice will expand to other crops as technology advances, because of the increased production compared to field crops, the sharp reduction of water needed, no pesticides, and LED “sunlight” individualized for each plant’s needs (which can be powered by solar panels).

This Farm of the Future Uses No Soil and 95% Less Water


The High-Tech Vertical Farme

50

Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change

« on: January 20, 2020, 05:22:02 PM »

Sam (@SamTalksTesla) 1/20/20, 5:05 AM
This is my town today, just meters from my home. Heartbreaking. Yesterday this was a beautiful cosmopolitan Spanish seafront. This is not normal. People constantly question my choices to not eat animal products and to drive an electric car. Here’s your answer.
https://twitter.com/samtalkstesla/status/1219199137016578049
- The sea is at least 40 meters closer than normal. People are walking around dumbstruck.

Image below; video at the link.

Also below: Surface winds right now.