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Messages - Sigmetnow

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Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: Today at 03:03:46 AM »
Other notes from the financial call:

• Maxwell Technology acquisition is on schedule, expect close in mid-May.

• “Tesla Insurance” is in the works, expect launch in about a month.

• Average Sale Price for Model 3 (most recent data) is about $50,000.

• Analyst: “Why don’t you raise more capital for growth?”
Musk: “It’s healthy to be on a spartan diet for a while.” Capital is not a constraint for our growth.

• Giga 3 progress is going “incredibly well.” “I get daily photos.”

• Can still buy the $35k Model 3, via phone or in store. “Will remain there.”

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: Today at 02:43:01 AM »
“Our 2019 capex, the vast majority of which will be to grow our capacity and develop new vehicles, is expected to be about $2.0 to $2.5 billion. We believe this amount should be sufficient to continue to develop our main projects, such as Gigafactory Shanghai, Model Y and Tesla Semi, as well as for the further expansion of our Supercharger and service networks.

Operating cash flow less capex should be positive in every quarter including Q2. As the impact of higher deliveries and cost reduction take full effect, we expect to return to profitability in Q3 and significantly reduce our loss in Q2.”

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: Today at 02:27:07 AM »
From the financial call: Although Musk has stated previously that Fremont had no room for Model Y production, the Tesla team has come up with a way to “append” existing building and warehouse space that would make it possible.  Expect an announcement of the chosen location in the next few weeks.  Tooling and equipment has been ordered, so no delay is expected.  Also, lessons learned with Model 3 production mean that future production lines will incorporate significant CapEx savings.
We intend Model 3 to be the first step in a platform which we can cost effectively and quickly replicate across geographies and vehicle types. We have spent years developing this platform, and Gigafactory Shanghai and our planned Model Y production line will be the first to reap the benefits of this investment. Learning from our experience, we can now build a second-generation Model 3 line in China that we expect will be at least 50% cheaper per unit of capacity than our Model 3-related lines in Fremont and at Gigafactory 1. Our Model Y manufacturing capacity will have the same simplicity as the line planned for Gigafactory Shanghai.

A potential robotaxi fleet of one million cars, enabled via an OTA software update as regulations allow.  Only Tesla has this potential.  Other ride-share companies have a few hundred (more expensive) self-driving vehicles at most.
A custom-made robotaxi capable of running about a million miles using a single battery pack, with all the sensors and computing power for full autonomy, should cost less than $38,000 to produce. We believe low vehicle cost, low maintenance cost and an expected powertrain efficiency of 4.5 miles per kWh should make this the lowest cost of ownership, and to be the most profitable autonomous taxi on the market.

 Although we are driving towards higher internal goals, we reaffirm our prior guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 vehicle deliveries in 2019, representing an increase of approximately 45% to 65% compared to 2018. Please note that vehicle production will be significantly higher than deliveries, as it takes several weeks to transport cars from California to distant customers, especially in other countries, where they must also be processed by customs. Deliveries, production and customer orders, which are all materially different, are often conflated when analyzing Tesla.

If our Gigafactory Shanghai is able to reach volume production early in Q4 this year, we may be able to produce as many as 500,000 vehicles globally in 2019. This is an aggressive schedule, but it is what we are targeting. However, based on what we know today, being able to produce over 500,000 vehicles globally in the 12-month period ending June 30, 2020 does appear very likely.

We continue to target a 25% non-GAAP gross margin on Model S, Model X and Model 3, depending on variant mix and option take rates as our product offerings change.

In response to the operational challenges we experienced with international expansion in Q1, we are in the process of balancing our regional vehicle builds throughout the quarter. This provides an opportunity for additional cost efficiencies in our factory, supply chain, logistics operations and delivery centers.

With the recently announced product improvements on Model S and Model X, as well as continued expansion of Model 3 globally, we expect our order rate to continue to increase throughout the year as our production levels increase. We believe we will deliver between 90,000 and 100,000 vehicles in Q2. Although it is possible to deliver a higher number of vehicles, we believe it is important to begin unwinding the "wave" approach to vehicle deliveries, where overseas cars have been made in the first half of the quarter and North American cars have been made in the second half. This puts extreme stress on Tesla, negatively affects our working capital needs and adds to our cost structure.

Tesla First Quarter 2019 Update

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: Today at 02:20:50 AM »
Multiple factors specific to Q1 led to lower production and sales of Model S/X in Q1 — but 90- to 100k S/X deliveries in 2019 are still expected:
Deliveries of Model S and Model X declined to 12,100 vehicles in Q1 compared to our two-year run rate of roughly 25,000 units per quarter. This decline was mainly caused by weaker Q1 demand due to seasonality, pull-forward of sales into Q4 2018 in the U.S. due to the first scheduled reduction of the federal EV tax credit in Q1 and discontinuation of our 75 kWh battery pack. We also had a mismatch between orders and deliverable cars. For example, due to adjustments in pricing mid-quarter, the take rate for the performance versions of Model S and Model X increased faster than we were able to supply.

Discussion during the Q1 financial results call stressed how difficult the Q1 “wave” production (making batches for overseas during the first half of the quarter, then for North America in the second half) was for production, transport, and delivery efforts alike, making minor transport slips result in deliveries delayed to Q2.  In fact, one-half of all Q1 deliveries happened in the last ten days of the quarter!  They are therefore transitioning to a more regular, non-wave strategy for Q2 and forward, which should lessen stress on personnel, improve scheduling, and reduce overtime costs.  And with the many Q1 deliveries shifted to Q2, Q2 deliveries should be great — targeting 90- to 100k.

Quick delivery times for Model 3 orders are made possible by production batches.  Despite using this method, Tesla inventory remains well below industry average.
Unlike Model S and Model X, we do not build Model 3 vehicles to order. Rather, given its significantly higher volume, we build different variants of Model 3 in batches (including regional versions), and every vehicle that leaves the factory initially becomes inventory.
While in inventory, those vehicles are then matched to a specific order made by each customer.

… our global Model S, Model X and Model 3 inventory (including vehicles in transit and vehicles owned by our sales and service organizations) at the end of Q1 equaled 30 days of sales, less than half of US industry average and in line with our historical numbers.

Only 3.5% of the trade-ins for Model 3 are Model S, indicating minimal cross-demand.  The majority of trade-ins for the Model 3 are non-premium vehicles, showing the market for the car extends well beyond the premium segment.
Model 3 was yet again the best-selling premium car in the US in Q1, outselling the runner-up by almost 60%. This is not surprising given that, for the first time in history, the price of an electric vehicle is lower than its gas-powered equivalents. While global premium vehicle sales reached 8 to 9 million units (depending on definition) last year, the Model 3 is attracting buyers from other segments. Since introduction of Model 3 Standard Range and Standard Range Plus, 69% of trade-ins were non-premium vehicles, indicating that Model 3 is demonstrating appeal beyond the premium segment. Our global expansion for the Model 3 has just begun, competing in a segment that is vastly larger than just the US. Model 3’s average selling price (ASP) in the US remains strong, as a majority of these orders are for long range or all-wheel drive versions. We are also seeing increasing take rates of our Autopilot options, as this suite of features improves.

Average Sale Price for Model 3 has been increasing ever since the Standard Range was made available February 28.  Standard Range Plus with Autopilot seems to be the sweet spot for new orders.
“We continue to target a 25% non-GAAP gross margin on Model S, Model X and Model 3, depending on variant mix and option take rates as our product offerings change.”

Patrick DeHaa (@GasBuddyGuy) 4/23/19, 9:41 PM
Americans will collectively spend nearly $250 million more on gasoline tomorrow than they did 79 days ago.
- (Or roughly $1.75 billion more in the next 7 days)
< On average, how many gallons a day do Americans purchase?
- I'd estimate tomorrow somewhere in the neighborhood of 390-405 million gallons.

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 4/24/19, 9:29 AM
Gas prices are at multi-year highs
Image below.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: April 24, 2019, 09:31:11 PM »
The Tesla Show (@TheTeslaShow) 4/24/19, 10:15 AM
Morgan Stanley on their test ride at Tesla Autonomy Investor Day.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: April 24, 2019, 08:59:28 PM »
Note that historically, Gizmodo has never missed an opportunity to layer on the snark and derision against all things Tesla.

Elon Musk Was Right: Cheap Cameras Could Replace Lidar on Self-Driving Cars, Researchers Find
In a paper that will be presented at the 2019 Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition in June, Pseudo-LiDAR from Visual Depth Estimation: Bridging the Gap in 3D Object Detection for Autonomous Driving, Cornell researchers detail a potential breakthrough for autonomous vehicles. Cameras have typically been considered an inferior technology to Lidar given that they’re often installed at low angles, near a vehicle’s bumper, resulting in images that tend to distort objects in the distance which confuses neural networks trying to process and interpret the data.

But by placing a pair of cheap cameras on either side of a vehicle behind its windshield, stereoscopic images are produced which can be converted to 3D data. Because the images are being generated from a higher vantage point, closer to where Lidar systems are typically installed, the 3D data that was generated from the cameras was found to be nearly as precise as what laser scanners are able to generate, without distortion, and at a fraction of the cost. ...

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: April 24, 2019, 07:46:22 PM »
List of areas with the worst, and best, air (in the U.S.) at the link. Wildfires are a factor.

Report reveals worsening US air pollution, emissions concerns
A new report shows air pollution is getting worse in the US, and the current EPA’s efforts to weaken emissions regulations on cars and power plants are seen as a major threat to improving the state of affairs.

The American Lung Association released its 20th annual “State of the Air” report, which focuses on the years 2015-2017. In these years, “more cities had high days of ozone and short-term particle pollution compared to 2014-2016.” Many cities also suffered from increased levels of year-round particle pollution.

The report found that 141 million Americans — about 43% of the population — live in counties that have monitored unhealthy ozone and/or particle pollution. While that’s an increase from 2014-2016, it’s still a big improvement from 2012-2014, which saw 166 million Americans experience unhealthy pollution. ...

Policy and solutions / Re: Becoming Vegan.
« on: April 24, 2019, 07:21:43 PM »
Tyson sells stake in plant-based meat maker Beyond Meat
Tyson Foods Inc said on Wednesday it had sold its 6.5 percent stake in vegan burger maker Beyond Meat, as the no. 1 U.S. meat processor looks to develop its own line of alternative protein products.
Beyond Meat, which sells its plant-based burger at Carl’s Jr., no longer wanted the Tyson Ventures representative in its board meetings, partly over fears that the company might try to interfere with potential mergers and acquisitions, according to the Axios report.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: April 24, 2019, 05:58:15 PM »
San Francisco to require renewable electricity from buildings
While New York’s plan requires emission cuts from its largest buildings, San Francisco would specifically require buildings to run on electricity generated by renewables. The city’s requirement is expected to reduce 21% of emissions from commercial buildings by 2030, when the entire city aims to run on 100% renewable electricity.

San Fran’s plan has a separate timeline for its buildings to go fully renewable based on size:

By 2022 – commercial buildings over 500,000 square feet must meet the requirement
By 2024 – commercial buildings over 250,000 square feet
By 2030 – commercial buildings over 50,000 square feet

This could be big.

Ford Drops $500 Million Into Rivian In Bid To Electrify Its F-Series Trucks
Rivian’s R1T electric truck and the R1S sport utility vehicle are geared towards higher-end luxury consumers, much like Ford’s Lincoln lineup of vehicles, leaving plenty of room for an electric work truck for the masses branded with Ford’s iconic blue oval.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: April 24, 2019, 04:27:10 PM »
EXCLUSIVE: 2019 Tesla Model S Review: From SF to LA on One Charge? - MotorTrend
...Surprisingly, the nav system plots our route down the 101, over the steep Highway 152 pass, and dumps us onto Interstate 5, with its famous obstacle, the Grapevine, which is basically a mountain where it sometimes snows at its summit in the winter. "Is this really the best way?" I ask, thinking that following Highway 101 all the way along the coast, with its relatively gentler grades, would be less of a range challenge. "Just follow the map," we're told.
As we pull into the Supercharger stall, our elapsed time from the Bay Area stood at 6 hours, 11 minutes, 359 miles. With 83 kWh used, we had 11 percent of the battery remaining—which equates to 41 more miles at the rate I was going. Right at 400 miles if you add it up. ...

Colorado getting 24 new electric buses through VW settlement
In all, 28 “alternative fuel” buses will replace those 28 diesel buses — one of the buses will run on compressed natural gas, and three will run on propane. The rest of the buses will be battery electric buses, with the multi-county Regional Transportation District getting 15 of those buses. The settlement money will also pay for the charging infrastructure.

“Over a million combustion engine (it’s right there in the name!) car fires per year & thousands of deaths, but one Tesla car fire with no injuries gets biggest headlines. Why the double standard? This is a real question.”

“Reality is a Tesla, like most electric cars, is over 500% *less* likely to catch fire than combustion engine cars, which carry massive amounts of highly flammable fuel. Why is this never mentioned?”

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: April 24, 2019, 02:11:15 PM »
The Longest-Range Electric Vehicle Now Goes Even Farther

Beginning today, Model S and Model X now come with an all-new drivetrain design that increases each vehicle’s range substantially, achieving a landmark 370 miles and 325 miles on the EPA cycle for Model S and Model X Long Range, respectively. Using the same 100 kWh battery pack, these design and architecture updates will allow drivers to travel farther than ever before, charging less frequently and getting more range out of every dollar spent on charging.

My Hyundai would still beat them both to New York from LA by several hours. Assuming the Teslas didn't spontaneously explode into fire at some point.

I'll still have ~ $60,000 in my bank account which the Tesla owners won't. So I am unsure why such a new development will lead to Tesla glory (or survival).

Because Hyundais do spontaneously explode into fire.,2406.msg196362.html#msg196362

And Tesla Autopilot makes long trips more pleasant and much less fatiguing.  And some people would rather not pollute every mile of the countryside they drive through, nor expose themselves and their kids to poisonous fumes every time they stop at petrol stations.

Edit:  Oh, and Tesla Models S, X and 3 are statistically the safest, least likely to result in injury or death in a crash, of any car measured by NHTSA.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: April 24, 2019, 01:47:16 AM »
Tesla (@Tesla) 4/23/19, 6:24 PM
This 3D reconstruction shows the immense amount of depth information a Tesla can collect from just a few seconds of video from the vehicle's 8 cameras
25-second vid at the link:  3-seconds of city street video; then a pan around the 3D street scene.

Alter Viggo (@AlterViggo) 4/23/19, 12:08 PM
Tesla can generate 3D point clouds from their cameras. No LiDAR necessary. This flies in the face of those like Waymo, Uber, and Cruise who say you need (expensive and power hungry) LiDAR to make 3D maps. ...

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: April 23, 2019, 06:11:28 PM »
“You all used your own neural network in your brains to get here. You didn’t shoot lasers from your eyes to drive.”
- Andrej Karpathy

If Tesla’s non-LiDAR FSD system succeeds, it will disrupt many companies, industries and investors.  Which explains the big commercial push-back on Tesla’s acheivements, in order to protect their own financial interests.

SunTrust's Willian Stein
"We are concurrently skeptical and hopeful about TSLA's claims. If TSLA executes to plan, implications across semis/components are meaningful: positive for analog/mixed signal vendors, mixed for digital vendors, negative for LiDAR vendors.... Investors should recognize that, if the company achieves its autonomous driving goals, combining this with its already-achieved EV technology conspire to establish a ride hailing service that could be quite financially compelling to both the car owner and the rider."

Tesla’s Autonomy Day highlights Elon Musk’s vision for a full self-driving future without LiDAR

Edit:  Also keep in mind the exponential speed of Artificial Intelligence improvement.
Vala Afshar (@ValaAfshar) 4/20/19, 9:05 PM
AlphaGo initially trained on thousands of human games to learn how to play Go.

AlphaGo Zero skips this step and learned to play simply by playing games against itself; it quickly surpassed human level of play, defeating AlphaGo by 100 games to 0.

Google Maps now show real-time EV charging station status

U.S.:  Nevada and Washington pass 100% clean electricity bills
Joining the Club
The two states join New Mexico, California, and Hawaii in setting 100% clean electricity goals for the future. Hawaii is still the only state to commit to getting 100% of its future electricity from renewable sources — not just carbon-free.

Hawaii was recently joined by American territory Puerto Rico, which aims for 100% renewables by 2050. Washington D.C. has also committed to 100% renewables by 2032.

With both Washington and Nevada setting legislative goals for renewables and 100% clean electricity, that makes five states out of 50 — and there are no signs of the momentum stopping at the state level. Illinois is pursuing a similar commitment. Governors in a number of other states, such as New York, New Jersey, and Minnesota, are also seeking plans for carbon-free electricity.

At the city level, 120 cities have committed to 100% clean, renewable energy as noted by the Sierra Club’s Ready for 100 campaign.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: April 23, 2019, 04:53:35 PM »
Tesla (@Tesla)4/23/19, 10:12 AM
Tesla Vision uses path prediction to accurately predict how a road will extend, even when it can’t see around the corner
Image below. 30-second video at the link.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: April 23, 2019, 04:37:15 PM »
< If you're already confident about this new chip being plenty powerful enough for FSD, why are you working on a new version? Is FSD not the end goal?
<< gotta chase those 9's
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 4/22/19, 8:26 PM

Andrej Karpathy concludes: If I were to summarize my entire talk in one slide it would be this. And that includes incidents of flying cars (the rightmost image).

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: April 23, 2019, 03:02:31 PM »
Tesla unveils car design without a steering wheel, coming within 2 years, says Elon Musk
Unlike most other companies working on self-driving systems, Tesla is taking the approach of delivering vehicles to customers that they can use right now as regular cars but with the hardware required to eventually achieve full self-driving with future software updates.

It is completely different from companies like Waymo or Uber who are working on vehicles solely built for autonomous ride-sharing services.

GM also claims that it is bringing an autonomous Bolt EV without a steering wheel to production by the end of the year.

At the Autonomy Day, Tesla unveiled its own design for a vehicle without a steering wheel....

Image posted above:,2406.msg196425.html#msg196425

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: April 23, 2019, 02:43:57 PM »
System on a Chip (SoC)

James Wang (@jwangARK) 4/22/19, 7:11 PM
Here's a comparison of Tesla's new self-driving chip vs. Nvidia's Xavier SoC. Tesla is ~2.5x in perf/watt, ~3.3x when adjusted for die area (proxy for cost). Tesla's real world performance will likely be much higher due to tight coupling of sw+hw+compiler.
Image below.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: April 23, 2019, 02:26:11 PM »
See the video beginning 1:17:10 where they describe the system’s two fully independent computers, including power supplies and video feeds.  Musk: any part of this can fail, and the car would keep driving. The probability of this system failing is less likely than a person losing consciousness.  By at least an order of magnitude.


Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: April 23, 2019, 02:01:19 PM »
Here is video of the full presentation:
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 4/22/19, 8:10 PM
Tesla Full Self-Driving
- Warning, this presentation is 4 hrs & 20 mins long
- All cars made since Oct 2016 either have the hardware needed for FSD or are trivially upgradeable
Start at 1:09:37 in.

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 4/22/19, 9:41 PM
Full Self-Driving video
2-min time lapse. Lots of highway interchanges.  A number of stop lights and stop signs; you can see them displayed on the screen.
Of all the autonomous rides given that day, I have heard of only one that required intervention, to help get the car into the left turn lane at one intersection.

Hamid Shojaee (@hamids) 4/22/19, 5:56 PM
One more... #AutonomyDay
Easy to see progress in the ~1 minute video clip at the link: Summon is much quicker, like a human driver!  Attendees described using the Tesla Network app to “Click on a car shown in the parking lot display, and it will pull out of its parking spot and drive to you.”

Tesla4Everman (@Everman) 4/22/19, 7:16 PM
January 15, 2015. @elonmusk,"We will have mainstream cars capable of full autonomy in five years or less. Proving that it is safe & getting regulatory approval is likely to take 2-3 years after that." #Tesla #FSD
Thought insane by all then. He'll beat it.
Video of that 2015 press conference, cued to that quote, at the link.
 ##  @ 19:35

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: April 23, 2019, 01:14:32 AM »
That was a fascinating talk by the experts. The details on the chip were really satisfying. What they really did was simplify the chip to maximize the typical machine learning operations. Then they crammed as many simple operations as they could to maximize performance of the specific task Tesla needs.

From that I gather two things. One, this new chip is useless for all applications except self-driving neural networks. Two, for the application of self driving cars using the Tesla's approach there is no faster chip in the world.

Right. Nvidia has to make their chips serve many different customers and applications, whereas the Tesla chip was designed purely for Tesla Full Self Driving Neural Net:  very fast, very safe, very energy-efficient.

Elon said that for a competitor to work out the Tesla-specific bits (Intellectual Property) would require about three years — by that time, Tesla will be rolling out its next generation chip, which will be 3 times better....

There is no other car you can buy with the hardware that can attain FSD except Tesla.  Musk said he expects cash-flow neutral as the FSD Teslas ramp up, then cash-flow positive once the Tesla network comes on line and Tesla takes their 25 to 30% cut.

Tesla unveils ‘Robotaxi’ plan for self-driving ride-sharing network next year
Musk’s own presentation focused on Tesla’s timeline to bring a full self-driving to market and the ‘Tesla Network’, the company’s plan for a shared fleet of Robotaxi vehicles.

The CEO believes that Tesla will have developed the software for all the features required to achieve a full self-driving system by the end of the year.

He emphasized that this version system will still require driver attention, which doesn’t really make it self-driving, but he expects that it will stop requiring driver attention by Q2 2020.

From there, Tesla will be working with regulators to have the system approved as a self-driving system that doesn’t require driver supervision.

The timeline for that will depend on the regulators in different jurisdictions, but Musk said that he is confident it will happen in at least one market by the end of next year. ...

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: April 23, 2019, 12:54:44 AM »
Teslarati did a great live blog of the Autonomy presentation.  My favorite bits:

- FSD only operates software that’s cryptographically signed by Tesla – it will NOT operate software that isn’t Tesla’s, Bannon says.
- Elon Musk speaks his mind about the use of LiDAR for full self-driving once more. “LiDAR is a fool’s errand, and anyone who relies on LiDAR is doomed. It’s like having expensive appendices. You’ll see,” he said.
- The next generation chip will be about 3X better than the current one…about 2 years away,
- On simulations, Tesla uses them extensively, including for training data. But there really is no substitute for real data. The modeling isn’t the same…the real world throws some crazy stuff at you. Snow, trees, construction sites, plastic bags flying in the wind, etc., all interact differently and give different data, Andrej continues teaching the investor audience how NN’s work.
- “Using simulators, it’s like grading your own homework,” Elon doubles down against using simulators vs. real world driving. “It would be a monumental achievement of human capability,” he says, referring to creating a simulation that actually modeled reality.
- “LiDAR is lame,” Elon replies to a comment about his ‘slam’ on the tech during the presentation. The man is clear about his feelings. “We’re gonna dump LiDAR, mark my words. That’s my prediction.” He then talks about SpaceX’s use of their own LiDAR because it makes sense. LiDAR in cars is “stupid”, he says…in case you were wondering how he **really** feels.
- Elon lightly mentions a mode beyond Mad Max once more. Looks like an “LA Traffic Mode” might really be released in the future.
- Nine million successful lane changes have been logged in Tesla cars, per Bowers. They are now seeing 100,000 automated lane changes per day. [And no accidents!] That’s a lot for the NN to learn from! No simulator necessary.
- THIS IS BIG: The current battery pack is good for about 300-500,000 miles. The new battery pack that will probably go into production for next year will operate for **1 million miles** with minimal maintenance, he announces, specifying that the improvements are driven by the Tesla Network development. As parts become less and less important (steering wheels, pedals, etc.), they will delete them from the cars.
- IMPORTANT –> Tesla will be liable if there is an accident while using the Tesla Network, per Elon.

Tesla showcases Autopilot, Full Self-Driving tech in Autonomy Day (Live Blog)

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: April 22, 2019, 11:58:21 PM »
Tesla Investor Autonomy Day: Stage presentation has ended. 
A few headlines:
• Musk reiterates that LiDAR and High Definition (HD) maps are short-term crutches that will not get companies to full autonomy; computer vision is necessary for the edge cases, like differentiating between a tire in the road and a plastic bag.  Vision data can create LiDAR-like 3-D maps, and the neural net can actually predict road paths around a curve, beyond its line of sight.
• Tesla tried the HD/GPS map method and rejected it; any temporary change in a road makes it unusable, and regulators will want a backup method if GPS goes down.  The Tesla computer has two independent neural nets running and checking against each other before acting.  Either one can drive the car if one goes down.
• Teslas with the latest chip and software will have Level 5, non-geo-fenced capability by the end of this year. 
• Regulatory clearance for Tesla Network robotaxis in some jurisdictions in 2020.  (Tesla has been working with regulators on Navigate on Autopilot, and Advanced Summon, so they have a good feel for what regulators want.)

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: April 22, 2019, 07:41:43 PM »
Breaking — Tesla Model S & X Refresh Production Test Run Is About To Start

May 19 is the anniversary of the 11 year old “Tesla Death Watch”

Tesla’s 11th Death Anniversary — No Joke!
Zachary Shahan. April 21st, 2019
Okay, it’s a small joke, of course, since Tesla isn’t dead and certainly hasn’t been dead for 11 years! However, for those of you who thought this idea of an 11 year Tesla death anniversary was an April 1st joke, I assure you, it is not!
There are many things you could do. The point is to have fun and spread the good news that Tesla, actually, is not dead and isn’t going to die anytime soon. To the contrary, Tesla is seeing its growth explode, Tesla has the most satisfied buyers on the auto market, Tesla offers a car that is better than a BMW 330i but has a total cost of ownership comparable to a Toyota Camry or Honda Accord, Tesla has broken countless sales records, and Tesla is essentially in a league of its own at the top of the auto market. ...

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: April 22, 2019, 07:40:37 PM »
Complaints About Hyundais and Kias Catching Fire Prompt U.S. Probe
"BMWs have these fire problems for a very long time,"

Looks like more Whataboutism to me. Please be aware everyone, some Hyundais, Kias, BMWs and Teslas blow up and catch fire. SpaceX vehicles too I hear. I wonder how many Volvos blow themselves up spontaneously each year?

The point is, every Tesla fire is treated as Breaking News!, while hundreds of ICE cars spontaneously combusting generates merely yawns, even by the agencies tasked with regulating them.

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: April 22, 2019, 04:13:10 PM »
U.S. to end all waivers Iran oil imports, crude price jumps
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Monday reiterated that Washington’s goal was to bring down exports of Iranian oil to zero and added the United States had no plans to give any grace period beyond May 1 for countries to comply. ...

Policy and solutions / Re: Energy Efficiency: The “First Fuel”
« on: April 22, 2019, 04:09:17 PM »
Insulation.  And solar.  And the little things....

This homeowner avoided 'energy-guzzlers' for more efficient options
For example, one family had an older desktop computer that they kept in sleep mode. With the help of the Sense technology, they came to realize that their dogs would vibrate the mouse and wake the computer up when they ran through the house. By switching the computer from sleep to hibernate mode, they were able to shave $250 off their utility bill for the year.

Web-based, open car-sharing platforms such as Turo are popular with people who want to try out EVs.

We’ve written before about car sharing platforms being used by EV owners, particularly Tesla owners, to make a little side money with their cars.  Turo is the biggest example of this, and they’ve shared some statistics with us about their platform showing that EVs are quite popular there and gaining steam much faster than the rest of the site.
Turo told us that this isn’t the result of a specific push on their end to encourage more EV rentals or to push EVs ahead of other vehicles, but that these things are happening on their own.  As a reaction to noticing this within their fleet, they’ve added an “EV filter” for those who only want to browse electric cars (feel free to try it out yourself).  They also plan to add a dedicated EV page at some point in the future. ...

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: April 22, 2019, 02:49:58 PM »
Tesla (@Tesla) 4/20/19, 8:58 PM
Tesla Autonomy Day is on Mon, April 22nd   

Watch the event livestream @11am PDT [ 18:00 GMT ]:

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: April 22, 2019, 02:43:48 PM »
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 4/2/19, 4:12 PM
@NHTSAgov investigates every fire that involves a @Tesla, but it took "thousands of complaints that the vehicles went up in flames even without being involved in a crash" to probe @Hyundai @Kia ??
$TSLA #NotATesla

Complaints About Hyundais and Kias Catching Fire Prompt U.S. Probe

Earl of Frunkpuppy  (@28delayslater) 2/6/19, 8:07 AM
“NHTSA, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, has over 90 complaints of parked BMW fires filed on its database. The organization said they have no current investigation into the fires”  :o

"BMWs have these fire problems for a very long time," said Jason Levine, executive director at the watchdog group The Center for Auto Safety. "They've taken a very long time to respond to them. And it doesn't seem that they're getting to the bottom of the problem."

The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: April 22, 2019, 02:28:39 PM »
SpaceX preps for Cargo Dragon, Falcon Heavy launches despite setbacks
Despite suffering the loss of the first Falcon Heavy Block 5 center core and a catastrophic failure of the first flight-proven Crew Dragon spacecraft in nearly the same week, SpaceX’s core operations continue as usual to prepare for multiple launches in the coming months.

The echoes of the past week’s failures and ‘anomalies’ will undoubtedly ring for months to come but SpaceX now finds itself in a unique situation. Despite the imminent start of a major failure investigation, it appears unlikely – at least for the time being – that it will impact the majority of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches planned for the rest of 2019. Currently on the Q2 2019 manifest are Cargo Dragon’s 17th operational mission (CRS-17), the first operational Starlink launch, Spacecom’s Amos-17 satellite, the Canadian Radarsat Constellation Mission (RCM), and Falcon Heavy’s third launch (STP-2). ...

The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: April 21, 2019, 09:45:12 PM »
SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft suffers an anomaly during static fire testing at Cape Canaveral
Couple of things on #SpaceX Crew Dragon:

– Unconfirmed reports: Capsule "all but destroyed"
– Here's a photo gallery:
– And the story:

Suspect we need to expect a long delay to US manned flight.

Better found now than later, but still disappointing.

Some points from what I’ve read about it:

- Per the audio, the explosion occurred during the countdown to the test (T-minus 8 seconds), not upon ignition of the engine.
- It occurred after other successful static firings that morning.
- The explosion appears to have started *above* the location of the rocket engine, and resembles a pressurized container or plumbing rupturing, rather than an engine.  The Super Dracos have been tested for seven years and are housed in “protective shells” to contain any engine failure.
- Whenever fuel touches the oxidizer, it ignites. A small leak could lead to a fire that takes out everything around it.
- SpaceX Crew Dragons were not to be reused, but this Dragon, preparing for use in the unmanned in-flight abort test (a test recommended by SpaceX, not NASA), was the Dragon that had been exposed to sea water after its return from the ISS.  A problem caused by such immersion would not affect future Crew Dragons.
- Re-used Cargo Dragons have made successful deliveries to the ISS.
- SpaceX returned to flight after Amos-6 in just 4.5 months, and from CRS-7 in 6 months.  The cause of Saturday’s RUD may be something unique to that particular Dragon’s experience which need not delay the program more than a few months.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: April 21, 2019, 03:10:48 PM »
Tesla would be the best possible partner for them to successfully make the inevitable transition to EVs. 

Please explain what you think Tesla has that would be of value to German Auto Makers.

Don't they share "all their patents" with the world, free of charge?  ;)

Ask Fiat.  They just agreed to pay Tesla hundreds of million of euros for the privilege of a “partnership” Fiat needs to stay in business.  Next year, more OEMs will be forced to do the same.

Money for Tesla’s EU gigafactory!  Thanks!

Fiat Chrysler to pay Tesla hundreds of millions of euros to pool fleet

This market gets pretty tight for everyone in 2019, except for Toyota. That doesn't leave a lot of options for FCA, leaving Tesla in a fairly decent negotiating position. … Interestingly, Tesla only needs about 45K deliveries to pull FCA into compliance. This explains them leaving the pool open, potentially for Ford. Ford probably decided to pass purely for reputational reasons or didn't want to help Tesla.

The real fun starts in 2020 though, where these 0 g/km EVs are pure gold. EU is on track to levy 95*30*15million (95Euro/g * 30 g/km shortfall * 15 million sales) in fines - Or a mindboggling 40 Billion every year. An EV at 0 g/km is worth 9k Euro (95*95) in avoided fines. Tesla could easily sell these credits for a small 10% haircut until it gets to 15-20% market share. And it gets progressively worse for the legacy manufacturers as the limits keep going down. No wonder the likes of LG Chem are playing hardball because next year, the European manufacturers don't have an option to not try building EVs.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: April 21, 2019, 03:32:28 AM »
Wow. Tesla bears are so deranged, they recommend drivers commit aggressive actions near the FSD cars, risking a catastrophe.  Proving another way in which human drivers are more dangerous than autonomy.  (Besides inattention, distraction, falling asleep at the wheel, etc.)

Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s views on Full Self-Driving safety get validated by TSLA bears

Not just idle threats.  Aggressive driving and personal injury have already occurred.  Tesla has filed legal action.

Nafnlaus (@enn_nafnlaus) 4/20/19, 4:28 PM
So, remember my tweet about Tesla short sellers plotting to try to make a FSD car crash to make Tesla look bad (…)? They've already tried - enough to trigger an emergency crash evasion maneuver. Petition for a restraining order filed:
Text images from the filing at the Twitter link and replies; or see for the document.

What kind of stimulus do China’s half-idle car assemblies need to restart stalled sales in the world’s largest vehicle market? | South China Morning Post
“The most severe challenge facing China’s auto industry is not consumer demand, but the supply side,” said Paul Gong, a UBS analyst. “As every carmaker expands production capacity at a faster pace than demand, the fiercer competition will eventually affect the business and eat into the profit margin.”

Or sooner.

Electric Cars Will Cost Less Than Gas Cars Within 3 Years
There are fewer and fewer reasons left to buy a gas-powered car.

China's auto show highlights electric ambitions
By the end of next year, “it will be very difficult for a customer to decide against an electric car,” said the CEO of Volkswagen AG, Herbert Diess.
Global brands are linking up with Chinese partners with experience at low-cost production.

Ford has an electric venture with Zotye Auto. GM and its Chinese partners plan 10 electric models by next year. Mercedes Benz launched the Denza brand with BYD. VW’s electric joint venture, SOL, started selling an SUV last year.

Under the new system, automakers must earn credits for sales of electrics equal to at least 10% of purchases this year and 12 percent in 2020. Automakers that fall short can buy credits from competitors that exceed their targets.

Regulators say targets will rise later.

An electric’s sticker price in China still is higher than a gasoline model. But charging and maintenance cost less. Industry analysts say owners who drive at least 16,000 kilometers (10,000 miles) a year save money in the long run. ...

Dream on....
Details of Nikola’s plan from their presentation in Arizona.

The hydrogen fuel strategy behind Nikola’s truck dream
Water electrolysis, not methane reformation, will drive heavy-duty refueling plan.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: April 20, 2019, 02:55:18 AM »
The German auto industry very much wants Tesla to fail. Which is in some sense ironic, because Tesla would be the best possible partner for them to successfully make the inevitable transition to EVs.  No longer do they laugh about the small EV start-up from California being a threat!

Lisa G-Punkt (@LudaLisl) 4/19/19, 1:59 AM
The German political Party @CSU just quoted a statement, closing "... It can't be [in the sense if "It is unacceptable"] that the German auto industry will lose and Tesla will win."

This shows why there is so much FUD going on in the German media to keep @Tesla down.

CSU (@CSU) 4/18/19, 1:10 PM
.@ManfredWeber: Beim Klimaschutz sind wir uns einig, dass wir Ambition brauchen. Aber SPD und Grüne riskieren mit ihren überzogenen Forderungen Arbeitsplätze. Es kann nicht sein, dass unsere Autoindustrie verliert und Tesla gewinnt. #BRextra #DeinEuropa

[@ManfredWeber On climate protection, we agree that we need ambition. But the SPD and Greens risk jobs with their excessive demands. It can't be that our auto industry loses and Tesla wins. #BRextra #DeinEuropa]

Lisa G-Punkt (@LudaLisl) 4/19/19, 2:43 AM
Germany was one of the countries Elon looked at for the new Gigafactory. A bias like this doesn't seem very welcoming.
Also, the German car industry shot itself in the foot with Dieselgate. They don't deserve saving if they overslept EVs AND committed fraud .

The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: April 20, 2019, 01:58:12 AM »
Longread explainer on the difficulties of getting the Orion space capsule on some sort of moon flyby by the mid-2020 target date; and why SpaceX’s options wouldn’t work with Orion’s bygone-era-design — this time, anyway.

NASA Launch Services Program outlines the alternative launcher review for EM-1

“tl;dr: Orion is big and fat, for reasons better not remembered”

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: April 19, 2019, 09:24:03 PM »
Article compares hardware, software/data, regulator acceptance, and market share outlook of the major competitors. 
From Seeking Alpha!

Tesla's Autopilot: Their Most Lucrative Asset - Tesla, Inc.

BBC One on Twitter: "There is still time to hit the emergency brakes on the damage we are doing to our planet. There is still hope. Climate Change The Facts with Sir David Attenborough. ...”
Four-minute video program excerpt at the link.

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 4/19/19, 11:19 AM
"In two years, AlphaGo improved from 'top amateur' to unbeatable, and in the subsequent two months, it became an unbeatable one-day-old baby."
Image below.

Policy and solutions / Re: Energy Efficiency: The “First Fuel”
« on: April 19, 2019, 05:06:28 PM »
NYC To Force Buildings To Cut Emissions In Own 'Green New Deal'
NEW YORK — Owners of New York City skyscrapers will have three decades to sharply cut back the amount of climate change-fueling chemicals they spew into the air under a bill lawmakers passed Thursday.

The city's largest buildings — such as the Empire State Building — will have to meet strict benchmarks with the goal of eventually reducing their emissions 80 percent by 2050 under the City Council-backed measure. The worst offenders will have to start cutting emissions by 2024, and all those that fail to meet the goals would face fines.

The bill — which Mayor Bill de Blasio has said he would sign — is one of five pieces of legislation in the Council's Climate Mobilization Act, which Speaker Corey Johnson called the city's version of "Green New Deal," a proposal to shift the nation to renewable energy sources.

"Who knows what we'll prevent — the storms that we'll prevent, the climate change we'll prevent, the flooding we'll prevent, the environmental justice that we'll achieve — by doing this now," Johnson, a Democrat, said Thursday.

The emissions bill aims to shrink the carbon footprint of the massive buildings that produce a disproportionate share of the city's greenhouse gases, said Councilman Costa Constantinides (D-Queens), the bill's lead sponsor. Just 50,000 of the city's 1 million buildings are responsible for 30 percent of the emissions here, he said.
The measure would also establish a new Office of Building Energy and Emissions Performance within the Department of Buildings to help implement the targets.

It's likely to be an expensive undertaking for property owners — the necessary upgrades would cost more than $4 billion, though owners would get that money back because they would have smaller expenses, The New York Times reported.

Another bill passed Thursday would set up a program to help more building owners make such alterations. The so-called Property Assessed Clean Energy program would allow efficiency and renewable-energy projects to get financing with a small down payment or none at all, the Council says. ...

The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: April 19, 2019, 01:38:01 PM »
Falcon Heavy could launch STP-2 as early as June 22nd.

SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy flies a complex mission for the Air Force in launch video
SpaceX has gone to unique lengths for the third launch of its Falcon Heavy rocket and made an exhaustive webpage dedicated to the mission, reviewing its importance to SpaceX and the United States and discussing most of its 23 manifested spacecraft.

Known as the US Air Force’s Space Test Program 2 (STP-2) mission, Falcon Heavy Flight 3 will be a critical pathfinder for the US military’s systematic utilization of both Falcon Heavy and its flight-proven boosters.

The STP-2 mission will be among the most challenging launches in SpaceX history with four separate upper-stage engine burns, three separate deployment orbits, a final propulsive passivation maneuver and a total mission duration of over six hours. [It] will demonstrate the capabilities of the Falcon Heavy launch vehicle and provide critical data supporting certification for future National Security Space Launch (NSSL) missions. In addition, [the USAF] will use this mission as a pathfinder for the [military’s systematic utilization of flight-proven] launch vehicle boosters. ...

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: April 19, 2019, 04:03:42 AM »
LVC (@lourencovc) 4/16/19, 9:04 PM
There is a huge gas crisis in Portugal due to a truck drivers strike. Getting home this is the scenario. A never ending line to the gas station. It can impact all of us if it’s not solved soon, but at least I’m good knowing my Model 3 has nothing to worry about
< The entire argument of “I can just go to a gas station and fill up in a few minutes”.
It’s like dudes, I don’t have to go to the gas station at all, my car is all filled up in the morning before I even get to it.
Photo below; video clip at the link.

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