Messages

1

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: Today at 06:18:10 PM »

”With the Model 3 getting its official NHTSA score, Tesla now holds the distinction of being an automaker whose entire lineup of production vehicles have 5-Star safety ratings.”

Tesla Model 3 earns flawless 5-Star safety rating from NHTSA

Just like the Model 3, the Tesla Model X received perfect scores in all of the NHTSA’s frontal crash, side crash, and rollover tests. Back in 2013, the Tesla Model S performed so well during the NHTSA’s testing, the vehicle ended up breaking the organization’s crash-testing gear.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-earns-flawless-5-star-safety-rating-from-nhtsa/


Edit: 
More: with crash test videos!

Tesla Model 3 gets perfect 5-star safety rating in every category from NHTSA [Videos]
https://electrek.co/2018/09/20/tesla-model-3-5-star-safety-rating-nhtsa/

For context: the BMW 3 Series, Audi A4, Mercedes C Class, and Lexus IS models… while overall are 5-star, are all rated 4-star in frontal crash ratings. Whereas the Tesla Model 3 is 5-Star in all.
Even 100 years of manufacturing expertise can’t make a big ICE engine into a dedicated crumple zone.

P.S.:  Please note that the batteries did not burst into flames.

2

Science / Re: Cube-Sat Payload - Suggestions?

« on: Today at 05:15:16 PM »

...

If you mean "how does it keep its sensors pointing downward towards the Earth, rather than in some random direction out to space", that's historically been a thorny problem, and it depends on the Cubesat. Normal (non-Cubesat) satellites have a three-axis stabilization system (ADC) that keeps the satellite oriented so its sensors are always facing downward. Only a few Cubesats have ADCs, because of the difficult size constraints.

Yes, this.  Satellite orientation tech is unlikely to be an “off the shelf,” lightweight addition, so if it is not a part of the basic cubesat, any most attempts to study phenomena on the earth’s surface or atmosphere seems unlikely to succeed.

It might work better if the satellite transmitted a simple signal, (or received one and retransmitted it), rather than gathering data itself.  Variations in signal strength or light intensity received on earth could be used to study radiation, or atmospheric light blockage (depending on the frequency).

Think less like IceSat and more like... Sputnik? 

3

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: Today at 04:19:09 PM »

Elon Musk must be feeling pretty good about the September numbers he’s seeing.  He retweeted this :
Tesla is 'headed for the graveyard,' predicts former GM exec Bob Lutz
https://twitter.com/cnbci/status/1042173012227842048

Thread extract:

28_DELAYS_Later_ (@28delayslater) 9/19/18, 8:59 PM
What does @InsideEVs know about Tesla production #s. 
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1042578922171445248

InsideEVs: You should see our tracker!! Way unlike that Bloomberg thingy! Ours is accurate.

28: Off topic now much do your authors get paid for market moving stories?

IEV: Nothing. We are flat rate salaried. So not a dime. Thanks for asking.

28: Didn’t think so. Well done. Keep up the good work. Can’t wait to see those #s!


28:  Ok so if you don’t get extra for market moving stories, surely you share your Tesla referral codes and all have roadsters?

IEV:  Nope against policy

28:  @InsideEVs is the best.

TalkTesla (@TalkTesla) 9/19/18, 10:13 AM
Wow, look at all of these new EV competitors! @Tesla is surely doomed!

Oh... wait... nvm
https://twitter.com/talktesla/status/1042416456984612864

GIF at the link brings up a graph of web searches worldwide for the biggest upcoming, known-brand EV competitors, over the last year — then the Model 3.
It’s pretty funny.

4

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: Today at 02:09:13 PM »

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 9/19/18, 3:07 PM
Bloomberg's hit piece lasted 36 hours
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1042490272662388739

Alex Feldman (@aija_tweet) 9/18/18, 3:15 PM
@GerberKawasaki Curious how Bloomberg waited till TSLA rallied back to 300 to post this nonsense knowing it will have a material impact on the stock. I think the wrong party is being investigated for stock manipulation.
https://twitter.com/aija_tweet/status/1042129999262887936

3Tesla (@3Tesla1) 9/19/18, 3:20 PM
Monday: @Tesla closes at $296
Tuesday(day of massive short FUD): @Tesla closes at $284
Wednesday: @Tesla should close at $298 or so
https://twitter.com/3tesla1/status/1042493552683634690

TSLA Wednesday close:  $299.02

https://www.teslafudtracker.com

5

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: Today at 01:50:05 PM »

“This is just nasty — what Tesla and its wild young Model 3 are doing to the old guard. Look at the charts [here] and tell me if this isn’t wicked cruel.”
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/09/16/10-nasty-tesla-model-3-charts/


The BMW 3 series is a direct competitor to the Model 3.  It’s the second most-traded-in car for the Model 3, after the Toyota Prius.  Since the Model 3 was announced in 2016, BMW 3 series sales in the US have collapsed.

Actually, as I reported a couple of weeks ago, Tesla sold more cars than BMW in the US in August (cars only, not including SUVs/CUVs). That’s shocking — even to me. Ask 100 people on the street whether BMW or Tesla sold more cars in the US last month and I’d put some money on none of them choosing Tesla. That’s not just funny, though. It’s the beginning of a wave. What happens when those people do begin to learn that Tesla is outselling BMW in the car aisle?

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/09/20/us-bmw-3-series-sales-have-collapsed/

6

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: September 19, 2018, 08:21:15 PM »

The bad news: Now that Tesla is finally out of “production hell,” it has entered delivery hell.
The good news:  Delivery hell is much easier to get out of.

Tesla Model 3 Delivery Push In Full Ramp Mode
https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-delivery-ramp/amp/

Henry (@rocketL49)
9/18/18, 9:41 PM
Vancouver #Tesla $tsla is delivering Model 3s until 10pm everyday. Demand is insane.
https://twitter.com/rocketl49/status/1042227026856296448

7

Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....

« on: September 19, 2018, 06:33:41 PM »

Possibly only of interest to Jim H and others in the UK but here's the real world outcome of my most recent trip in my i3 REX to Bristol from Cheshire - total miles 375, all but around 20 completed without use of the range extender:

Webb's Garden Centre near Worcester (Polar CCS) - Fail - occupied for at least 45 minutes by a Mercedes hybrid that actually achieved a top up of just 1.1 KWh - irritating!

Michael Wood services near Bristol (Ecotricity CCS) - success - 80% charge in 30 min.

Bristol Zoo North Car Park (Polar type 2) - Fail despite really helpful staff - charger initiation failure.

Gloucester services (Ecotricity CCS) - success - 65% charge in 25 min.

This is pretty typical of my experience in the UK. Longer trips require patience, flexibility and a reasonable knowledge of how it all works. I suspect this is pretty common elsewhere too.

Significant investment will be required in both the scale and the maintenance of the charging networks if demand for a rapidly growing fleet of EVs is to be met. Introduction of brand specific networks is less than helpful in my view.

Very interesting to this non-UK, EV fan. And I agree with your comments.
Thanks.

8

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018

« on: September 19, 2018, 06:28:01 PM »

North Carolina is still closed, almost a week after Hurricane Florence made landfall.

NCDOT (@NCDOT)
9/19/18, 12:00 PM
Here's a look at road closures (currently 850), including major routes such as I-95 and I-40. Travel is still not advised to these regions due to rivers that haven't crested, debris, downed power lines and more. For info. on routes, visit drivenc.gov. #FlorenceNC
https://twitter.com/ncdot/status/1042443357102985216
Image below.

9

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: September 19, 2018, 05:35:30 PM »

And for… balance?   A short update:

+4 million shares in less than 1 month!

Ihor Dusaniwsky (@ihors3)
9/19/18, 10:22 AM
$TSLA short interest $10.07, 35.33 million shares short, 27.71% of float. Shares shorted are up 824k over the past week & am seeing/hearing of more short activity this morning.
https://twitter.com/ihors3/status/1042418678426476544

10

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: September 19, 2018, 05:34:28 PM »

 

https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1042200353050173445

11

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: September 19, 2018, 05:04:59 PM »

If I’m going to cherry-pick one brief comment to be excited about, out of an hour-long unedited discussion, I prefer to pick a positive one.  So there you go.

P.S.  Climate is local, too.

P.P.S.:  Thanks for the self-moderation.


EDIT: more of the words surrounding the “70%” quote from the Gerber video.  “Cars” would seem to be referring to “all road transport” in that sentence.  And road transport is responsible for 70% of transport emissions.
—-

“We were discussing sustainable transport and energy. …
70% of emissions for climate is from cars.…
Tesla’s mission is not just about making money.  It’s about creating sustainable transport. It’s about making sure we’ll be here in 30, 40, 50 years.  A lot of people think that’s alarmist, but if you’re in South Carolina right now [suffering from hurricane Florence], you probably don’t think that’s alarmist.  That’s why we need to switch to an electric infrastructure and we need to have many forms of electric transportation, even like Birds [e-scooters] and other forms of electric transport.  But in the end, this is just imperative.”

“Within this [Transport] sector, road transport is by far the biggest emitter accounting for more than 70% of all GHG emissions from transport in 2014.”
https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport_en

12

Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....

« on: September 19, 2018, 04:59:29 PM »

Porsche unveils its plan for electric vehicle fast-charging stations: Electric pit stop

Earlier this year, Porsche announced plans to deploy a network of 500 EV charging stations in North America in time for the Taycan next year.
Those stations are going to support Porsche’s new 800-volt charging system to work with the Taycan’s 800-volt battery for faster charging.

https://electrek.co/2018/09/17/porsche-plan-electric-vehicle-fast-charging-stating-electric-pit-stop/

13

Science / Re: Cube-Sat Payload - Suggestions?

« on: September 19, 2018, 04:44:58 PM »

Curious:  does the Cubesat itself maintain your selected earth-specific orientation?  (Perhaps using cold gas thrusters?)  Just wondering how you can assure it will remain pointed at the location you want.

Image: here are some cubesats being deployed from the ISS.  They are adorable! 
http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=42238

14

Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....

« on: September 19, 2018, 04:29:16 PM »

More on FLO Canada.  Impressive!

Handy map (there is an app, too) shows number of chargers, type, and number in use.
Looks like they are just starting to fill in the middle of the country — as EV owners have been clamoring for.

https://flo.ca/on-the-go/map

https://flo.ca/mobile-app

15

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018

« on: September 19, 2018, 04:15:44 PM »

Blair Holloway (@BSHolloway)
9/19/18, 9:03 AM
You can't overstate the magnitude of flooding in NC. Check out the NE Cape Fear River near Burgaw. Looks like it is cresting slightly more than 3 FEET above the record which was set in Floyd. That is really something. #Florence #ncwx
https://twitter.com/bsholloway/status/1042398835404926977
Image below.

"NEW: Thread of before & after imagery from inland North Carolina where devastating flooding is ongoing. First, Hanceys Store, NC where inundated farms & homes remain."
https://mobile.twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1042245754671120384
Several GIFs comparing before, and during, flooding.

16

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: September 19, 2018, 03:49:39 PM »

“How can you quote a Ross Gerber tweet?!? I just posted a video and gave the time of him claiming that 70% of emissions come from cars.“

As the very large type in the first few seconds of the video clearly state, this is an unedited video of a chat.  Gerber may have meant 70% of the local pollution comes from cars — since he was, you know, driving a car, on local streets, talking about cars — so the statement could certainly be accurate.

It’s ridiculous to think no one of good standing ever said anything incorrect or incomplete while chatting on YouTube.   Or that one unclear statement renders a respected person unbelievable.  And yes, Gerber is well known, and well respected.  Just not by you.

17

Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....

« on: September 19, 2018, 02:04:17 PM »

Amazon is going to sell electric car chargers with installation as a turn-key solution

Amazon Home Services is a marketplace for things like home cleaning and handyman work, but now it sounds like they will also add electrical work and combine it with their sales of home charging stations.

Scott Keogh, president of Audi of America, commented on the upcoming new service:

“When Audi does electric, we do it by bringing our customers the utmost in convenience and premium experience, In addition to our customers being able to reserve their e-tron online, we’re proud to work with a similarly customer-centric company like Amazon to make in-home charging simple and convenient for e-tron buyers.”

The Audi e-tron is the first vehicle to be included in the new service, which they apparently already started testing, but it will launch in full closer to the arrival of the e-tron in Q2 2019.

https://electrek.co/2018/09/19/amazon-sell-electric-car-chargers-installation/

18

Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....

« on: September 19, 2018, 02:01:51 PM »

That's the one Sig, any idea if they will be standard at Canadian Tire stations?


Local VW dealer said they sold out of this years consignment of Ev's last Nov. so there is a market here.
Terry

Not sure if it will be “standard,” but I do see another installation at a Canadian T&G station just up the road in Kitchener.
Same network, too:  “flo” — so it’s likely they do have an agreement.
     Edit:
     Yes, lots of “flo” chargers being installed at CT&G stations in multiple cities!
     https://blog.flo.ca

Model 3s have joined the Teslas using the nearby Cambridge supercharger.  You should start seeing a lot of them soon!

19

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018

« on: September 18, 2018, 08:57:30 PM »

Florence is the worst flood in East Coast history. Here’s how locals describe it.

The images streaming in from the thousands of square miles of flooded cities and farmlands across the Carolinas are heartbreaking. From the washed-out beach homes of the Outer Banks to the raging mountain streams in the foothills of the Appalachians, nearly the entire region is underwater. All that rain means dozens of lives have been lost, and hundreds of thousands have been displaced.

Florence’s rainfall data is astonishing. The four-day accumulation of nearly 36 inches [0.91 meters], which was measured in Elizabethtown, North Carolina, is far, far above the previous rain record for a hurricane anywhere on the East Coast. It broke the North Carolina record by nearly a foot. That much rain is more than what scientists estimate a 1,000-year level, 60-day rainstorm would drop in the region, given a stable climate: slightly more than 35 inches. Put another way, there’s a 0.1 percent chance every year that in a 60-day period the rainfall in Elizabethtown would be at least 35 inches. North Carolina took on all of that water in just four days.

And as ocean waters warm and the atmosphere changes, it’s becoming increasingly clear that this storm is not just a fluke; there are more Florences in our future.

The region the storm hit hardest is one of the poorest parts of the state, where virtually no one has flood insurance. As bad as it is, the waters in rivers and streams statewide are still rising.

Grist corresponded with 10 Carolinians who grappled with Florence. Here are their stories, edited and condensed for clarity....

https://grist.org/article/florence-is-the-worst-flood-in-east-coast-history-heres-how-locals-describe-it/

20

Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....

« on: September 18, 2018, 08:24:04 PM »

My local gas station has added Ev charging to the 16 gasoline bays, convenience store, and auto car wash services they have been providing.

They're open 24/7 with access to Hwy 401 & hwy7 & 8.
No restaurant, shopping, bar, or motel within walking distance.

1 - CHAdeMO 500V by 125A High Speed DC charger
1 - Combo High Speed Charger
2 - 35 A by 220V Slow Chargers

The lone attendant on duty last night didn't believe they had seen any use in their first few weeks of availability & was unable to answer any questions re. the chargers. The HS chargers were charging $20/hr.

Terry
Preston, Ont. Canada

Hi, Terry!  Is this the station?
If so, the chargers have only been in operation since August 15 or so. 
There have been seven check-ins on Plugshare, with a wide variety of EVs: LEAF, Volt, eGolf, even an Ioniq! 
And of course, not all EVs use the Plugshare app.

21

Policy and solutions / Re: Coal

« on: September 18, 2018, 07:50:24 PM »

States Begged EPA to Stop Cross-State Coal Plant Pollution. Wheeler Just Refused.

Maryland and Delaware had asked EPA to require upwind coal plants to reduce their emissions of smog-forming nitrogen oxide (NOx) pollution under a provision of the Clean Air Act. Maryland's petition, for example, asked that the EPA to require about three dozen plants in Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia to run their already-installed pollution control equipment during the summer months.

EPA: There Isn't Sufficient Evidence
Pruitt had sat on the petitions, along with a similar request from the state of Connecticut, for months without acting. Federal courts ruled four times this year that such delays were illegal—most recently on June 13, when a federal judge in Maryland ordered the EPA to act on that state's petition.

In the notice signed by Wheeler on Friday, the EPA said that it does not have sufficient evidence that upwind states and sources are significantly contributing to the downwind states' problems with ground-level ozone, or smog. ...

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/17092018/coal-plant-smog-pollution-epa-ruling-state-border-health-maryland-delaware-andrew-wheeler

22

Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....

« on: September 18, 2018, 07:09:43 PM »

Here’s a map showing what your ICE car’s MPG must be, to be cleaner than an EV powered by that region’s grid.  Remember too that the grids are continually getting cleaner as coal plants close and more renewables come on-line.

(I’d love to see this down to a more local level, and a similar one for Europe, etc., but this is a start.)

That is actually out of date.  Here is their latest report:
https://blog.ucsusa.org/dave-reichmuth/new-data-show-electric-vehicles-continue-to-get-cleaner
...

Thanks for the update!

23

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: September 18, 2018, 07:05:07 PM »

UBS says the model 3 can’t be profitable at 35k and $TSLAQ rejoices, sings the praises of UBS.

Audi unveils the e-tron and is loved so much by bears that there are marriage proposals

Now UBS says the Audi only shows how far behind other car makers are from #Tesla

https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1042034374844272641

UBS says Audi's new electric car shows industry has a long way to go to catch Tesla
https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/companies/ubs-says-audis-new-electric-car-shows-industry-has-a-long-way-to-go-to-catch-tesla/ar-BBNuRv8

Their statement of “no demand” is laughable in light of the tens of thousands of sales just last month in North America — before opening to global sales, advertising, or even availability of the $35k version of the car!

24

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: September 18, 2018, 06:54:57 PM »

Ellec (@ellec_uk) 9/18/18, 12:30 PM
Stock above $300 cue a big orchestrated FUD attack and a massive sell order right at the momemt the news broke. $tsla
https://twitter.com/ellec_uk/status/1042088406313050117

Ross Gerber (@GerberKawasaki) 9/18/18, 12:12 PM
The government will try to prove Elon never wanted to go private and it was a fraud. That seems like a very steep hill to climb. I get SEC and a fine. But the Saudis just raised $11 bil in a bond. Bought 5% of Tesla and Lucid. Blah blah. #tesla $tsla
https://twitter.com/gerberkawasaki/status/1042084063878701056

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1)
9/18/18, 11:22 AM
50 days until $TSLA shorts wake up ⏳
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1042071356618301440


Edit:  Tesla’s statement (my emphasis) — confirms it’s just FUD, timed to shock the market:
“Last month, following Elon’s announcement that he was considering taking the company private, Tesla received a voluntary request for documents from the DOJ and has been cooperative in responding to it. We have not received a subpoena, a request for testimony, or any other formal process. We respect the DOJ’s desire to get information about this and believe that the matter should be quickly resolved as they review the information they have received.”
https://electrek.co/2018/09/18/tesla-tsla-now-reportedly-under-a-criminal-probe-over-elon-musks-take-private-comments/

25

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: September 18, 2018, 05:19:35 PM »

ValueAnalyst responds to the skeptics quoted in the NYT article:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1041865556595560448.html

26

Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....

« on: September 18, 2018, 02:30:29 PM »

Audi’s big reveal of the e-tron in the U.S. yesterday:

Audi launches e-tron electric SUV with $74,800 starting price
https://electrek.co/2018/09/17/audi-launches-e-tron-electric-suv-with-74000-starting-price/
 

The “Connect” version will enable smart capabilities like time-of-use charging as well as interfacing with a smart solar inverter to charge with solar power if the location is equipped with a solar array.

27

Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....

« on: September 18, 2018, 02:03:39 PM »

Here’s a map showing what your ICE car’s MPG must be, to be cleaner than an EV powered by that region’s grid.  Remember too that the grids are continually getting cleaner as coal plants close and more renewables come on-line.
...

The Cradle-to-Grave study shows conclusively that after the first six months to a year of driving, an EV’s total emissions to date will have equaled a comparable ICE vehicle.
Then, while the EV gets cleaner over time (as the grid gets cleaner, and battery management software improves via updates), the ICE vehicle only get dirtier, as its emissions control equipment ages. (Otherwise, continual emissions testing would not be required!)

Manufacturing emissions are important, but much less of a factor than fuel emissions.

The emissions estimates presented above compare the use of an EV compared to using a gasoline vehicle. However, there are also emissions associated with the production of these cars, and in general making EVs produces more emissions than a comparable gasoline car. We studied this issue in our “Cleaner Cars From Cradle to Grave” report in 2015 and found that the extra emissions from making an 80-mile range EV (compared to a similar gasoline car) are about 15% higher. However, this extra emissions ‘debt’ is quickly recovered by the savings that accrue while using the electric vehicle.

How quickly the emissions are recovered depends on where the car is charged, but for an EV the size of the Nissan LEAF, we found that the break-even point occurs after 6 to 13 months of use (depending on electric grid region), well shorter than the likely lifespan of the car.

https://blog.ucsusa.org/dave-reichmuth/new-numbers-are-in-and-evs-are-cleaner-than-ever

28

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018

« on: September 18, 2018, 01:35:02 PM »

Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) 9/18/18, 1:16 AM
Interstate 40 -- Wallace, North Carolina
Before and after Florence
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1041918912634519552
Images below.

919 risk pool (@oneduran)
9/18/18, 1:49 AM
@EricHolthaus trying to get word out in Piedmont NC communities about airdrops of supplies occurring from RDU near Raleigh to severely impacted communities like Lumberton & Wilmington, this thread summarizes what organizers on-site are being told is desperately needed.
https://twitter.com/oneduran/status/1041927214244265984

Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill: #HurricaneFlorence organizers with A JUST FLORENCE RECOVERY/ OPERATION AIRDROP are coordinating multiple flights daily bringing hurricane relief supplies from RDU into severely impacted areas like #Lumberton and  #WilmingtonNC

They are in touch with folks in those communities, who have stated there is a desperate, urgent need for infant formula, especially in #Lumberton. Clean water is accessible, and liquid is heavy, so powdered formula is preferable.

Other needs are for disposable baby bottles with liners (due to lack of sterilization facilities) and diaper rash cream (due to humidity combined with limited washing facilities). Use the 'no parking' area in front of the building where supplies are being held for unloading.

Non-perishable foods & basic first aid supplies are also urgently needed so please donate what you can, but a top priority right now for Lumberton is powdered infant formula. Bottled water is not needed since it’s too heavy to fly efficiently. Thanks for helping out & sharing. ...

29

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: September 17, 2018, 11:29:19 PM »

Elon Musk (@elonmusk)
9/17/18, 4:59 PM
Due to some Tesla owners encountering system issues yesterday, the free Supercharging referral program will be extended until tomorrow night
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1041793769106853888

30

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: September 17, 2018, 10:41:58 PM »

Just about any FUD affects Tesla stock prices these days, even completely false or misleading items.  Like, “Buyers only given 24 hours notice that free supercharging is going away!” 
“Tesla parking lots are full!” 
“Tesla parking lots are empty!” 

Literally no one has said any of these things. Don't let Musk's penchant for deceit and lies rub off on you.
...

Wow.  Your circle of information must be quite small.  Tesla fans put up with this on a daily basis.

Please see the edits to my post for links.

Here:

Edit: links

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2406.msg172972.html#msg172972

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2406.msg172985.html#msg172985

Edit: (see the replies)
https://twitter.com/urdeep/status/1041141513256726528
(PS: Congrats to all the new Model 3 owners near Toronto!)

31

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: September 17, 2018, 10:26:09 PM »

Okay, you have point. I take it back. Negative stuff about Musk can go in here as well, as it seems to affect stock prices. 

Just about any FUD affects Tesla stock prices these days, even completely false or misleading items.  Like, “Buyers only given 24 hours notice that free supercharging is going away!” 
“Tesla parking lots are full!” 
“Tesla parking lots are empty!” 


Edit: links

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2406.msg172972.html#msg172972

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2406.msg172985.html#msg172985

Edit: (see the replies)
https://twitter.com/urdeep/status/1041141513256726528

32

Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....

« on: September 17, 2018, 10:20:37 PM »

Here’s a map showing what your ICE car’s MPG must be, to be cleaner than an EV powered by that region’s grid.  Remember too that the grids are continually getting cleaner as coal plants close and more renewables come on-line.

(I’d love to see this down to a more local level, and a similar one for Europe, etc., but this is a start.)

33

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: September 17, 2018, 09:42:12 PM »

again:

- expert ?

- analyst ?

- etc. etc. all the same
...

Tesla remains a very polarizing company! You will find “expert” and “analyst” opinions claiming the whole range from very negative to very positive.  Some stock analysts switch back and forth between those views — just to generate more trading fees from the churn, I think.  So yes, you can find “analyst” examples pro and con. 

  What more objective analysis is there than to add up published reports of related product production announced for the next few years, and comparing that to Tesla’s?


Consider:

Tesla is no longer a “niche” product.  Back in 2013, bears insisted that after the early demand was filled, Model S sales “will be greatly diminished.”  Yet here we are in 2018 selling over 50k/yr of them. 

https://twitter.com/zdriver4/status/1041749906879176705

Now the same argument is being made against the more affordable Model 3.  You may recall that until a few months ago, Tesla was “anti-selling” the Model 3:  upselling to the Model S because Model 3 could not be made fast enough.  There was also a risk that the less expensive Model 3 would steal sales from the Model S, but has not occurred.  In fact, once the more expensive dual motor TM3 versions became available, they quickly became the top-selling versions of the car.

While discussing the demand for the Model 3, Tesla’s worldwide head of sales Robin Ren noted that since offering the higher-end versions of the Model 3, the company has started seeing “more orders for the All-Wheel Drive Dual Motor car and performance cars combined than the rear wheel drives.”

Tesla is preparing for what could very well be yet another record quarter for its latest and most disruptive vehicle to date. In an email to employees, Elon Musk noted that the company is “about to have the most amazing quarter in (its) history, building and delivering more than twice as many cars as (it) did last quarter.”

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-durability-test-road-simulator/

34

Policy and solutions / Re: What's New in Climate Change Acceptance and Action

« on: September 17, 2018, 08:46:19 PM »

Florence is not the ‘new normal’. We’ve destroyed normal forever.
If each new decade brings its own unique, ever-worsening climate disasters, there won't be any new norms for a long, long time.
By Joe Romm

Because things will keep changing with rising temperatures, with extremes becoming more extreme, there is no point at which one can plausibly say “This is the new normal, and this is what it is going to be like from now on.”

So, the “new normal” catchphrase is utterly misleading to the general reader and should not be used. ...

https://thinkprogress.org/florence-is-not-the-new-normal-weve-destroyed-normal-forever-357881eee59b/

35

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: September 17, 2018, 08:31:51 PM »

Tesla has ‘no credible competition,’ analyst says

Maybe, maybe not.
...

Thanks for the refs.  Without question, volume EV production in China will exceed any other country.  However, they will not threaten the market in Europe and the U.S. due to quality and safety concerns.  Even OEMs like GM and Nissan admit their EVs for the China market will not be available elsewhere for some time.  Higher quality EVs from established and other, new automakers are on the way, but won’t be available for a few years yet, as my “no competition” article confirms.  By 2020, Tesla will be making a million EVs a year (including those from its China factory, where demand for Tesla cars is so great that the company could raise its prices to cover the new tariffs — while other companies could not, for fear of losing market share).

The market for EVs is growing fast!  There is plenty of room for all entrants.  But the Tesla brand is years ahead of others, and will remain a highly-desired product for years to come.

36

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy

« on: September 17, 2018, 08:10:56 PM »

Court Upholds Illinois Nuclear Subsidies Law. Here's Why It's a Big Deal for Renewable Energy, Too.
A defeat in federal court likely would have been used to challenge state policies around the country that promote renewable energy, environmental law experts say.

The ability of states to regulate electricity prices is at the heart of several state renewable energy programs that are considered critical to the nation's ability to cut greenhouse gas emissions to address climate change. A defeat in the Illinois case likely would have been used to challenge those renewable energy policies, such as support of offshore wind farms in the Northeast and a new California law requiring all electricity in the state be zero-carbon by 2045, environmental laws experts said.
...
Illinois lawmakers passed the Future Energy Jobs Act in 2016, largely inspired by financial turmoil at the state's two nuclear plants owned by Exelon.

Under the law, customers of the state's utilities are required to pay a monthly charge that helps support the two nuclear plants. The charge (the equivalent of up to $16.50 per megawatt-hour last year) is based on a calculation of the social cost of emissions. Supporters of the law, which also includes provisions to pay for clean energy programs, say it will lead to a net savings for consumers because of financial benefits from clean energy programs and environmental benefits. ...

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/14092018/nuclear-subsidies-illinois-federal-court-ruling-clean-renewable-energy-programs-ferc

37

Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....

« on: September 17, 2018, 07:44:30 PM »

125-mile (200 km) range.  “Geared toward urban distribution.”

Mercedes-Benz delivers first 10 eActros all-electric heavy-duty trucks
https://electrek.co/2018/09/17/mercedes-benz-eactros-all-electric-heavy-duty-trucks-deliveries/

38

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: September 17, 2018, 07:25:31 PM »

Moreover, incumbent auto makers will help “validate and expand the existing market for electric cars” rather than hampering Tesla with their own electric-vehicle launches, the analysts said.

Tesla has ‘no credible competition,’ analyst says

Tesla Inc. faces no competition at present, and when it does it will be able to hold its own, analysts at Bernstein said in a note Monday.

And all the hand-wringing about potential rivals for its electric cars glosses over Tesla’s greatest long-term competitive advantage: its “unparalleled brand,” they said.

The rise of competitors by traditional auto makers is often at the heart of a bear case for Tesla.

“But let’s make this clear: there is no actual flood of competition coming,” the analysts, led by Toni Sacconaghi, said. “We tallied up every announced electric vehicle arriving in the U.S. between now and 2022, and the results were stark.”  The Model 3, which the analysts expect will account for 70% of Tesla’s revenues within two years, “faces no credible competition whatsoever until 2020,” or until Volvo  launches its all-electric Polestar 2 sedan, they said.

The Model S luxury sedan and the Model X luxury SUV will only face two competitors – the Audi Etron Quattro and the Jaguar I-Pace – up until 2020, the analysts said.
…
The analysts also demolished a case for General Motors Co.’s Chevy Bolt being a competitor for the Model 3.
“While matching the range and price point of the Model 3, the Bolt arguably remains a lower-end car, without the luxury nameplate, the styling, the performance, or even the electronics offered by Tesla,” they said. …

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-has-no-credible-competition-analyst-says-2018-09-17

39

Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....

« on: September 17, 2018, 06:39:05 PM »

...
>Buses, trolleys, light rail, subways, and high speed rail all have a place
An elderly person with mobility issues and poor eyesight might take issue and suggest a driverless car also has a place.

Not to mention the millions who don’t live near any mass transit options.

40

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018

« on: September 17, 2018, 06:34:06 PM »

More than 1000 road closures across North Carolina right now.
@NCDOT is advising travelers to avoid the state entirely.

NCDOT (@NCDOT)
9/17/18, 11:12 AM
- About 1,100 road closures
- Wilmington INACCESSIBLE by land. DON'T travel, let responders work.
- Sections of I-95/40 flooded. No reopen time until crews assess damage.
- Avoid areas S of US 64/east of I-73/I-74
- drivenc.gov: Use the route dropdown & incidents tab
https://twitter.com/ncdot/status/1041706379055194114
Images below.

41

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018

« on: September 17, 2018, 05:03:47 PM »

Raleigh, North Carolina.

NWS Raleigh (@NWSRaleigh)
9/17/18, 9:19 AM
917 am... BREAKING. We've observed a one minute period of sunshine at the NWS Raleigh office in west Raleigh. Last time we had sun was on Wednesday. #ncwx #theendisnear
https://twitter.com/nwsraleigh/status/1041677955871768576

42

Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....

« on: September 17, 2018, 04:59:32 PM »

Those who are so agoraphobic that they don't wish to share a vehicle with others should at least be willing to pilot the damn thing.
Terry

Whether I’m in a car or a bus, I don’t think I’d want to share the road with this person.  They’ll either be driving like a bat out of hell, or near walking speed. 

43

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: September 17, 2018, 04:12:37 PM »

Published August 1:  Free supercharging with purchase ends Sept 16.

Tesla will limit free supercharging for orders after September 16th

Tesla’s referral program was set to finish tonight, but, as they’ve done many times before, instead it got a midnight update extending it for a little while longer.  The program now goes through September 16th instead of July 31st

https://electrek.co/2018/08/01/tesla-adds-free-supercharging-for-model-3-performance-to-referral-program-extends-program-to-september-16/

44

Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....

« on: September 17, 2018, 04:06:10 PM »

Are self driving autos something that we need, or even want?

Terry

100 people die in car accidents evey day.  Even considering merely driver-assist technology, let alone full self driving:  automous driving saves lives and prevents injuries.  (Example:  40% fewer Tesla crashes in cars with AP, compared to cars without it.) 

45

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy

« on: September 17, 2018, 03:27:52 AM »

New Jersey approves new home solar initiative. Program eliminates up front costs and creates a net-zero monthly electric bill.

NJ Brings No Cost Solar to Homeowners
https://thesolarinstitute.org/nj-brings-no-cost-solar-homeowners/

46

Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....

« on: September 17, 2018, 12:45:53 AM »

The slow death of diesels continues;  the 2019 Nissan LEAF still lacks range improvement;  and a Tesla owner recorded a trip averaging 225 Wh/mile:

BMW cancels the new 540d xDrive after only a few months, and drops diesel options on other all models in the U.S.
BMW cancels all diesels from North America for 2019

When the 328d goes, it will be the last diesel car available in the U.S. from a German brand. Mercedes-Benz, a carmaker that has sometimes been considered near-synonymous with diesel, offered no 2018 model year diesel cars in the United States. Volkswagen, Audi and Porsche have also done away with diesel-powered offerings. Porsche's diesel engines available in the Cayenne were provided by Volkswagen. …

https://www.autoblog.com/2018/09/11/bmw-cancels-diesels-united-states-2019/
(This is not to say that BMW is ready to go all-electric.  They are currently betting on hybrids and “performance oriented gasoline engines.”  )

And here is BMW’s EV concept car for 2021:
BMW unveils its iNEXT next-gen electric crossover concept, describes it as ‘building block for the future’
https://electrek.co/2018/09/15/bmw-inext-electric-crossover-concept/

Nissan announces 2019 LEAF US pricing, says longer-range version available ‘in the future’
https://electrek.co/2018/09/14/nissan-leaf-2019-us-pricing-longer-range-version/
Starts at a MSRP of $29,990, same as 2018.  The much-anticipated longer-range version “will be available in the future” — but no details were released.

Tesla recently offered owners a free trial of Autopilot.  (They’ve done this before, so don’t freak. )  This owner used the opportunity to test their car’s energy efficiency:
“During the 2 week AP trial, I tracked our #Model3 energy consumption. Using AP as much as possible and on a road trip to the coast, the @Tesla Model 3 is still more efficient than our leaf. …”
https://twitter.com/snoozethroughf1/status/1041054665461260288
225 Wh/mile.  Image at the link.

47

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018

« on: September 17, 2018, 12:24:36 AM »

Roads to Wilmington, North Carolina Cut Off, Florence Flood Fears Rise

Woody White, chairman of the board of commissioners of New Hanover County, said officials were planning for food and water to be flown into the coastal city of nearly 120,000 people.

“Our roads are flooded,” he said. “There is no access to Wilmington.”

About 70 miles away from the coast, residents near the Lumber River stepped from their homes directly into boats floating in their front yards; river forecasts showed the scene could be repeated in towns as far as 250 miles inland as waters rise for days.
...
Nearby, a Waffle House restaurant limited breakfast customers to one biscuit and one drink, all take-out, with the price of $2 per item. ...

http://time.com/5397640/wilmington-north-carolina-flooding-roads/

48

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018

« on: September 16, 2018, 04:29:39 PM »

"It's already been said, but the forecast for #Florence by @NHC_Atlantic was pretty remarkable. Here's the entire forecast loop for Florence since it's initial formation off the African coast.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/wxdeflitch/status/1040733772243591168
Image below; GIF at the link.

The same weak jet stream that is causing Florence to stall out over the Carolinas is causing unseasonable heat to persist over the Gulf coast....
Image below.

NWS New Orleans on Twitter: "Yes it is Summer still but this is getting ridiculous for mid September. Highs will continue to be in the mid 90s with the heat index approaching 105 in some areas. Lows again in the 70s. Isolated storms today but maybe a few more storms tomorrow afternoon. #LAwx #MSwx”
https://mobile.twitter.com/nwsneworleans/status/1041281878312054784
Temperature maps at the link.

49

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018

« on: September 16, 2018, 02:35:36 PM »

"Rainfall event not quite half over in North Carolina. So far 4 Trillion gallons have fallen across state & 6 Trillion more are in the forecast. #Florence”
https://mobile.twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1040981559149510657
Images below.

50

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: September 16, 2018, 02:25:11 PM »

GSY wrote: 

“Has it ever occurred to you that the people posting Tesla-negative-info on this thread DO NOT HAVE SHORT POSITIONS?”

Has it ever occurred to you that I might not be referring to you?