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Messages - Frivolousz21

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 11, 2019, 06:57:32 AM »
Am I wrong in speculating that the faster the ice freezes this winter the faster it's likely to melt out next spring?  I think so, as such 'predicticating' is utterly without any science to back it up.   :)

Not really.

The two biggest factors in how fast the ice melts are weather and snow depth.

The most ideal set up is to have very low snow cover in Spring because the Bare ice albedo is so low compared to snow the energy uptake during May can quickly change.

In the 2008-2012 period we had a couple years with almost no s no snow come May.


2011 was one and in turn the CAB almost melted out.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 01, 2019, 09:23:24 PM »
The surface wind forecasts are pretty damn compelling for the potential for above normal extent driops the next 7 days. 

It will depend on how thin the remaining low concentration ice actually is.

Because winds are very very favorable for both low concentration maximas on Bremen to shrink considerably.


3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 01, 2019, 07:41:35 AM »
My thoughts from the other thread about the "mysterious" abrupt stop in ice loss.


Nope.

Not going to get much ice loss in late August with a reverse dipole. This should have been expected weeks ago on the main thread.

The pattern going back almost 10 days has been great for the ice

The models are picking up a mini vortex dominant dipole for the next week.

So September loses will probably be above average.

But the slowdown would have happened any time during the melting season with weather that perfect for it

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 01, 2019, 07:37:47 AM »
Considering momentum, heat in the water and everything else, the slowdown over the last week is nothing short of astonishing to me.

I really didn't expect to be wrong concluding extent this year would drop under 4 million KM2, but am happy that it appears it won't.

As I said elsewhere, seems there's a factor we are missing somehow.

I've been speculating for a while about that. Maybe, the ice is in such a bad condition that mostly volume is being lost at this point and the remaining ice continues to disperse, keeping up with the two-dimensional losses.  Of course, the only way we will know is to wait a couple weeks on  the PIOMAS numbers.

Nope.

Not going to get much ice loss in late August with a reverse dipole. This should have been expected weeks ago on the main thread.

The pattern going back almost 10 days has been great for the ice

The models are picking up a mini vortex dominant dipole for the next week.

So September loses will probably be above average.

But the slowdown would have happened any time during the melting season with weather that perfect for it

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 31, 2019, 08:10:18 PM »
Losses will pick up a lot for this Time of year the next 10 days

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 18, 2019, 11:17:56 PM »
It's probably going to take the ice over the CAB to be essentially snow free to melt out in a summer.

We probably need to see land snow cover on the NA Side melt out another 10 days earlier that it ever has so far.

That is very huge since solar Insolation is already near peak when it does melt.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 16, 2019, 06:20:16 AM »
Its very unlikely that 2019 will finish below 2012 in extent.

I would give it a 1 percent chance.

AMSR2 SCANS USING THE 36GHZ AND 18GHZ wavelength shows the whole of the ice pack left regardless of concentration is to thick.

There is just not enough energy coming in from the sun to support melting the ice North of 80 at the level needed to beat 2012. 



8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 15, 2019, 09:15:37 AM »
There's a good view for the first time in a long time on the ice that's left in the ESS. I'm absolutely gobsmacked to see how long that ice is lasting. I think I predicted a month ago that it would only last a few more days. Yet today, it's still there... Amazing! That was a good lesson!

https://go.nasa.gov/2OXr2ei

It's always like this.

There is surely a plethora of reasons that this happens but we don't have the full picture to piece that together.


It might simply be the ESS refreezes upwards of 2.5-3M with lots of ridging.

Expecially with the CHUCHKI ice being pressed into the ESS which has no winter outlet.

But this definitely keeps the ESS from becoming a mega warm soup bowl in late July.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 13, 2019, 01:54:33 AM »
It moves around but the blue strip indicates freezing on the top of the ice

When I say freezing it's probably like getting up really good Frost.

Its not freezing that would stop ice loss yet.


10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 12, 2019, 11:29:07 PM »

It would be interesting to know how much ice the Barnes Ice Cap lost this yet. It seems to have been under blue sky for most of July and August.

I love to see some more data on this do you have any.

Wikipedia says it averages about a meter year lost.

This year probably way abbve that

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 12, 2019, 11:24:02 PM »
Sterks is right.

Lots of surface freezing this time of year for partial days.

Really messes with high frequency scans.

And btw I'm a super social liberal person

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 10, 2019, 06:02:35 AM »
In addition to the nuances associated with the different measurements, it's also important to understand the differences in the various regions of the Arctic.

The shallow peripheral seas are a completely different animal than the deep Central Basin.

We've lost 2/3 of the Arctic ice volume in the last 40 years and that leads many to the erroneous conclusion that we'll lose the rest at a similar pace.

If we analyze the Central Basin as a separate entity (as we should), the numbers don't support the near-term BOE projections that most people here are forecasting.

Measurrments in the peripheral seas and measurements in the CAB are apples and oranges if you're attempting to project future minima.


This I completely agree with.

However 2011 got really close. 

But I agree that this downward trajectory in the summer months isn't going to just come to and open ocean abruptly.

However we are getting close to having ideal conditions come together to cause the Arctic to almost melt out or melt out at least once and then it will probably recover backed up above a melting out event for a while.




We need the Arctic like Area North of 60 degrees do you warm up a lot more to wear spring snow cover on land is gone basically by mid-may.

And show cover on the ice starts to really melt around that time.  Right now snowfall lost any weight spring seems to have started to hit a wall.


My point is ice loss before the summer solstice it's probably like next to nothing North of 73-75 degrees.

Like look at the ESS it's been basically gone for like 2 weeks maybe 3.

But the swirls left and that gooey looking stuff on satellite still prevented the very very end and didn't allow the ess2 exploding with heat to then drive that heat into the central cab.

finally now be ESL started to warm up a little bit but it's pretty much over now.



13
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 05, 2019, 04:23:23 AM »
Please post Umizoomi new sources as you guys can anything from Twitter that comes from professor box is invaluable

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 01, 2019, 04:49:37 PM »

To me it looks like this year's falling even further behind 2012 in terms of finishing with the lowest extent on record. 

Volume may end up being the lowest on record although I believe that should go to 2011 I don't think 2011 with mottled correctly when you look at the cryostat data it shows that 2011 was pulverized.


First off I am going to attach two graphics. 

One of them is around 75 North right on the border of the Beaufort and the Canadian basin about 150KM North of the Parry Channel region.

The other it is about 73.5 North in the middle of the Beaufort sea.

They tell a story that shows why melting the Western CAB is very hard.

You can see that the further north ITP shows this recent warm spell didn't intrude there.

While just SW of there it came hard.

This has to do with the easterly wind component and the thickness of the ice that's coming out of the cab.

so at this point to me it's very clear that the Western cab is not going to be melted like 2012 was.

the Atlantic side it's also clearly not going to retreat as far as it did in 2012. 

The CAA has been getting bombarded for a while almost relentlessly warmth and yet the northern two-thirds is still full of ice.  This isn't as much due to the late start their versus say other year where it melted further.

This is likely due to their being above-normal snow cover there heading into this season.

Satellite scans show that around at at North rim the ice inside of the area towards the pole everywhere is more solid and s thicker than in 2012.

So we get into the middle and end of August melting will be stuck at the very edges and compassion will be harder to come by versus a year for the ice is thiner and can be crushed together more easily.

The only way to overcome this would be a traditional dipole that really stuck in place through the end of the melt season. 

That's not happening.


I will say on a side note that there is almost no snow right now anywhere in the northern hemisphere and it shows in the weather in the Heights in the pressures very subtle but it's very clear.


15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 31, 2019, 01:09:25 PM »
This was also right when an amazing event took place.

For 3 maybe 4 days.  We saw record warmth with sunny skies press off the NA land area.  And cross over still EPIC level ssts in the Beaufort.  Combined with very warm temps coming off the land warm NW CAA.

The MYI where 3-4M thick ice resided in the far Western CAB was pulverised.


16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 31, 2019, 01:00:33 PM »
The ice was definitely worse in 2012 at this point.

2012 had very low snow depth and it was crushed off the ice in the second week of June for the most part.

That gave 2012 a huge jump.  Also 2011 had the worst ice in the fall so far on record.

It's not surprising the 2019 CAB ice is healthier than 2012 at this point.

Also look at the CAA not even close.





17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 31, 2019, 12:51:16 PM »
2012 was exceptional in it's ability to dent the deep inner portion.

2019 has been at the front of the pack in efficiently dealing with the portions we expect to melt but hasn't YET demonstrated the exceptional qualities necessary to make a significant dent in the deep inner portion. Most prominent is limited advance on the Atlantic side.

There doesn't appear to be a lot of empirical basis for extrapolating 2019 performance to date to major CAB reductions and a record.
2012 was exceptional in several metrics, but actually not in the CAB. 2016 (green) ran neck and neck with 2012 (yellow orange) all the way to the bottom, before being hit by an early CAB refreeze. This is supported by both UH AMSR2 (see petm's post #5024) and NSIDC.

2016  and 2012 we're both exceptional with respect to the CAB.

Oren shared a chart in the PIOMAS thread showing 2012 far ahead in CAB volume loss vs. other years.
I wish you would post less... oren's CAB volume chart in the PIOMAS thread shows 2019 in the lead. You post inaccuracies interspersed with useless conjecture, the combination is understandably off-putting yet for some reason here you are, still posting...

Oren's chart shows 2012 CAB beating every other year by close to 1,000 km3 in the final month of the melting season.

Like I said earlier, the finish of the 2012 melt season was parallel to Hurricane Harvey as a rain event. Unparalleled and off the charts.

This season will need a finish approaching that to top it.

Thanks for the compliment.

....you said


Oren shared a chart in the PIOMAS thread showing 2012 far ahead in CAB volume loss vs. other years.

2019 is AHEAD of 2012. You did not qualify it as September, you said it as if it were current, and how would you make a statement about 2019's September volume at this point anyways? It isn't even August yet.

You make falsifiable statements and then twist them around and keep arguing for no good reason. I hope you are banned.


And you just claimed the ESS was unprecented in it's current stage of decay.

And it turns out multiple other years are tied with 2019.

While 2007 was much worse.

Glass House man.


18
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: July 31, 2019, 12:47:09 PM »
The model showed snow over SE GIS where a promice Station reported temperatures of 5.42C.


A little off.


19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 31, 2019, 02:04:10 AM »
I have already simply proven the ice was already almost about to mass melt before the GAC.

So why isn't this accepted?

This isn't the better animation I posted before.

But here is July 22nd 2012 and August 4th 2012.

Its clear the ice already collapsed before the GAC.

The ice on the August 4th image is almost transparent.

That's because to this scanning frequency its really thin and the ocean below is being picked up.

This tells us the ice was already about to melt.

Erase the GAC and the entire Pacific side melts anyways

There seems to be this romantic novelty about the impact of the GAC.



20
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: July 30, 2019, 06:06:55 PM »
The surface of GIS being rocked.


21
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: July 30, 2019, 05:59:08 PM »
The summit on the 12Z sounding was -0.7C.

Might go above freezing today.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 30, 2019, 05:52:04 PM »
First of all the image is awesome.   Sure sign of the times.

But it shows the ESS once again holding on long enough to not be a player in driving melt in August.

The ESS is super shallow.

If it was open water being exposed to the June/July sun it would warm up into the 10-15C range with ease along the CONTENENTIAL shelf.

Maybe above 15C.

I believe that will happen.   Who knows when. But it will bring more issues than ice loss.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 30, 2019, 06:33:05 AM »
That slushy swirling ice in the ESS has really slowed things up.

That night all melt out.

But it's preventing the ESS from being a staging point to crush the CAB.
What are you talking about? The ESS has melted out faster than ever before. "Slowed things up" is still FASTER THAN EVER BEFORE so I think your verbiage here is silly and wrong. And if you have been paying attention to forecasts / actual weather, the CAB just took a bullet and it was completely independent of what is happening in the ESS (originating via North America / the CAA). So ultimately your statement here is doubly untrue.

(I don't mean to come across as antagonistic here and I genuinely enjoy your posts, this is just my opinion).

That doesn't matter.

It needs to be clear blue open water by now and it's not.

There is no chance for a big SST build up in the ESS.

And melt out is subjective.

I bet there will be swirls of ice well after the satellites say it's ice free.

And I bet SSTS don't do bleep because of it.


24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 30, 2019, 06:20:14 AM »
That slushy swirling ice in the ESS has really slowed things up.

That night all melt out.

But it's preventing the ESS from being a staging point to crush the CAB.


25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 30, 2019, 02:56:05 AM »
I don't think 2019 will beat 2012 in extent and area.  But it will be close.

The CAA is still going pretty solid and the Atlantic side is definitely not going to be crushed like 2012.

Kind of depends on that -NAO. Even when the AO has relaxed, the NAO ridging has refused to relent. Much the same case now. Going to be really tough to get volume losses to slow down for more than a few days with that thing hanging around.

Kind of wondering if we don't end up with a 2016-esque minimum, where we end up with a lot of low concentration ice and record low volume.

I would place odds favoring that. With the negative NAO you would think the CAA would collapse eventually

26
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: July 29, 2019, 11:32:08 PM »
All of that precip over SE Greenland has to be rain the freeze level is close to 3000M.

I hope that DMI model doesn't record it as snow.  There is no way.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 29, 2019, 11:28:12 PM »
I don't think 2019 will beat 2012 in extent and area.  But it will be close.

The CAA is still going pretty solid and the Atlantic side is definitely not going to be crushed like 2012.


28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 28, 2019, 02:27:20 AM »
Greenland is about to get pounded.

Any upslope precip will be warm rain.

Nasty.


29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 23, 2019, 04:01:54 PM »
This looks like the Great Arctic Anticyclone with strong winds and waves and clear skies. The sun still be high in the sky. I expect singnificant ice drop in any metrics.

High in the sky ? Under the anticyclone centre area (at 85N) the sun elevation angle will vary between 15 and 25 degrees.

Ok I know the sun does not set but from elevation angle POV, this is something similar to a January 10th afternoon in Boston, Mass.



Umm....Keywords are I know the sun don't set.

Will you post the Boston graphic so we can count how many hours there literally is no solar Insolation.

That's a bad comparison

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 23, 2019, 03:52:59 PM »
The incoming weather pattern is amazing.  OMG it's EXCITING.

The pattern brings a devestating combination of weather, climate, and geological processes.

That are currently expected to ramp up and wind down over roughly a 10 day period.

Peaking over roughly 6-7 days.


1.  MASSIVE amounts of solar insolation.  This is absolutely off the charts.  Models show a massive ridge developing over the next 48 hours over the Canadian basin.  This ridge over the Arctic will be centered over the Canadian basin especially Western Canadian basin and it is absolutely a monster. 

SOLAR INSOLATION AT THE NORTH POLE IS STILL ABOUT 460W/m2 and it drops to around 430W/M2 by August 1st and 400W/M2 around the 7th of August.

So this is really the very end of any impact solar insolation is going to have on this season directly in the Canadian basin.

And as we are currently riding melt momentum to maintain progressing as the most destructive melt season in modern human record keeping.

The weather has decided to ABRUPTLY cancel the mostly cloudy atmospherically benign/good for ice pattern and REPLACE it with a MONSTER DIPOLE

This isn't some 4-7 day slow change.   Where yeah the mass fields look good for melt but the cold air takes forever to scour out or the high pressure ridges are dirty and low clouds/fog run rampant.

No this EXPLOSION OF POWER is

BEYOND NUCLEAR FISSION
BEYOND NUCLEAR FUSION
BEYOND SUPERNOVA EXPLOSION

NO THIS IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN OG BIG BANG AND MULTIVERSE BIG BANG.


2.  SSTS ARE  NEAR RECORD, AT RECORDS, AND MOSTLY ABOVE RECORD TERRITORY ALL OVER THE ARCTIC BASIN AT LARGE.

ENUF SAID...

3.  THE LONG FETCH KING KONG BUNDY'S HUGE BALL SACK OF HEAT SMASHING IT ALL!


WE COULD TAKE A BIG LEAD ON 2012 THEN 2012 WILL WILL PLAY CATCHUP ONCE THE GAC HITS.

ANYWAYS...


I SAID THAT IS WHAT YOU NEEDED TO GET A NEW RECORD JONALU TO CHANCE THIS IS PRETTY FREAKING EXCITING AS THIS IS A BEAST PATTERN CHANGE

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 17, 2019, 09:43:55 PM »
My animation sucks..

But the euro and gfs now go straight back to ridging/insert insane DIPOLE anomaly.

If the 12Z EURO was correct VERBATIM.   

I NO IT WON'T BE BUT I'M SAYING YOU KNOW IN A FANTASY WORLD IF IT WAS CORRECT VERBATIM OH MY GOD THAT WOULD BE ABSOLUTELY EPIC

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 17, 2019, 08:35:32 PM »
Given that this is the most watched thread on the forum, I have to announce that sadly my father passed away today, and so I won't be able to take care of things here for a week or so, maybe longer.

I wish to pass along my condolences.  My only advice is to not try to do anything. 

Don't forget no matter what that you're human. 

And whatever the definition is it means something to be human.  So during this trying time all I can say is try your best to let yourself be human.


I promise we'll take good care of this place and you won't be here when you get back.  things will look just like they do now for the most part but I promise is for him won't be standing on broken stilts a solid foundation that you built for us will still be here

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 17, 2019, 08:22:00 PM »
I have great news for those who want a new record low. 

The Great Arctic Cyclone gets too much credit where they big drop in 2012.

Hello okay animation showing every 3 days from July 15th 2012 until August 8th 2012.  And you can clearly see that the Pacific side in 2012 slowly decayed leading up to The Great Arctic cyclone

I don't know what you're looking at bc while certainly losses were noticeable prior to the 2nd, it gets absolutely obliterated between the 2nd and 8th. You can watch it happen, in your own animation. The following...

Quote
by the time the GAC happened entire Pacific side was already almost melted out.

...simply is not accurate. The numbers back this up. As I have already shown in posts over the last few days, the weeks before and after Aug. 2nd ~ 8th were normal extent losses, while the 2nd to the 8th registered a loss of 990k sq kms.

Quote
it seems that the slightly above-average drink cyclone in Late July is what prep the ice.

There certainly was some losses before the 8th, but the JAXA ASIE numbers don't show this as heavy losses until the 2nd.

Quote
it's pretty clear that 90 + percent of the ice loss in 2012 would have happened even if the GAC never happened.

True, but I think you were speaking via hyperbole and didn't actually do the math. Any given week is only going to equal about 1/26th or 1/27th of total ice loss on average, or, very roughly, around 407.4~426k kms sq. The GAC week wiped out 990k kms sq, or more than double the average, and, without searching out my own post from days ago, almost double the week before (and after) which you analyze as being when the real destruction happened.

I don't know, maybe the area numbers are completely opposite this, but I seriously doubt it.


You are literally using sea ice extent lost crime to quantify ice melting.  Or volume loss or thickness loss which is a three dimensional observation.


Between July 15th and August 5th 2012 which was the day before The Great Arctic cyclone bombed-out.

The entire Pacific side at Large.

So almost all of the Ice Melt Away.

Using sea ice extent to quantify this means nothing.

the ice as it was in the middle of July 2012 wouldn't have melted out at all if the Great Arctic Cyclone took place then.

I'm just going to animate July 15th and August 5th and if you can't see did decimation on the Pacific side of the Arctic between those dates right before the Great Arctic cyclone took place then you are being disengenous.

Because even someone who has no understanding of using AMSR2 GRAPHICS.

could pick up instantly what the animation below is showing.


AMSR2 CHANNEL 36 GHZ ... Is good at picking up water vapour/water volume/density.


Basically this scanning CHANNEL can detect water density.  This makes it good at not only detecting the ice surface.

It is good at detecting whether or not the near ice surface is liquid or frozen.

It can also detect water density not ONLY IN ICE BUT ALSO THROUGH ICE.



So this can be used as a CRUDE way to determine ice thickness/density. 

While we clearly don't have a direct measurement of the ice thickness.

Its pretty freaking obvious that on July 15th you can see that the ice had that mostly whitish color.

Like most of the Arctic Basin did


Then we see August 5th the day before The Great Arctic Cyclone bombed out.

we can clearly see that most of the ice on the Pacific side is literally almost gone.

Of course on the sea ice concentration graphics this ice up to that point.  Was above the 15% percent extent threshold.

The GAC came along and finished the job.

To me this is very obvious.  I think having this tool and this information to give us a better more detailed time line of how the 2012 arctic sea ice pack fared is fantastic, absolutely top notch.











34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 17, 2019, 06:49:16 AM »
That is a huge change for only 16 days.


35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 17, 2019, 06:12:13 AM »
I have great news for those who want a new record low. 

The Great Arctic Cyclone gets too much credit where they big drop in 2012.

Hello okay animation showing every 3 days from July 15th 2012 until August 8th 2012.  And you can clearly see that the Pacific side in 2012 slowly decayed leading up to The Great Arctic cyclone by the time the GAC happened entire Pacific side was already almost melted out.

it seems that the slightly above-average drink cyclone in Late July is what prep the ice.

it's pretty clear that 90 + percent of the ice loss in 2012 would have happened even if the GAC never happened.

I think this is interesting because the models continue to trim deeper and stronger with the Cyclone over the next two weeks.

And if we could get a sub 990mb Cyclone with a decent high pressure gradient we could probably do the same thing happened over the laptev, ess and Western Cab.




36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 15, 2019, 04:15:40 PM »
At least at 74N

Some decent heat is going into the upper ocean of the Beaufort.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 14, 2019, 10:14:13 PM »
According to ITP bouys.


There is a huge drop off in upper ocean heat the begins around 76N and finally sees almost all upper ocean heat available to melt ice vanish at 80N.

The profiles below are from South to North. I can only post 4 images.  So I'm not posting the locations of these itps.


You can take my word for it. 

The itps are running from:


74.5N
76N
80.5N
81N.


2. Things stand out:

Around 80N there is no melting heat in the upper ocean.

So there has been no bottom ice melt in the CAB North of 78/80N.

The other thing is the two Southern profiles show upper ocean temps the past 24 hours jumping up from negligible amounts of heat the would melt less than 1 cm a day on the bottom

To about 0.3-0.6C.

Which can melt 2.5-3CM a day.

This is from the recent push of heat on this region.

We will get a better idea of how much heat has dumped into the upper ocean in the beufort and far Western CAB



38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 14, 2019, 08:58:25 PM »
The talk of this BOE is absurd.

Just this past April there was a large area of 3-4M+ ice.

In 201 we saw the CAB get decimated but at least in the interior CAB it has completely recovered.

Melting out ice that thick is going to be impossible for one summer.

A fundemental change will have to take place for the Arctic to melt out.


39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 14, 2019, 02:10:44 AM »
Easy to forget that 2012 had below average heights and temperatures over almost the entire basin from July 13th through the 26th, yet still produced significant drops due to all the preconditioning of the pack in June and early July. Even with below average temps at 850/925mb, the surface is still typically above freezing at this time of year. We may still see significant area drops even during the colder stretch. I would expect to -- given that it will be warmer over the CAB during this period than it was during 2012.

As long as the -NAO pattern sticks, it will be tough to keep cooler than normal temps over the CAB, CAA and Atlantic portion of the basin.

The -nao and bridging over the North American side does argue that the return of warmer sunny conditions come back over the Arctic basin.


however the look of the North Pacific with that huge
 high pressure system conflicts with that

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 13, 2019, 07:12:13 PM »
The weather forecasts look great for dramatically slowing ice melt compared to what we have seen most of the summer.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 13, 2019, 03:27:27 AM »
It's highly unlikely that we see the weather forecasts bomb on the pattern change.

There are many factors backing this happening.

I know that this news can be disappointing.  But this is how this works.

Even if there isn't a new record this year it will end up a top 3 melt season and volume loss could end up as a new record even if Extent isn't.

Area has no chance to be a new record.

I have been at this a long time and then disdain and snide remarks by people emotionally invested in a new record is pretty sad.


42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 12, 2019, 06:15:44 PM »
I think the weather would have to return to not only ridging but a dipole anomaly by no later than July 25th to have a shot at the record.

It just doesn't look like that is happening.

But I guess you never know.

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 12, 2019, 02:02:16 PM »
Regarding bottom melt in the Beaufort. whoi itp103 is currently tethered to one of the many floes north of the mclure strait. Two microcats are mounted at 6m and 7m depth which measure temperature, salinity and pressure. Temperature has risen significantly over the past week while salinity has dropped (not shown, please see https://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=163356 )

Heat from the sun has entered the top layers of the ocean water there.


Although it's not very much.  Thsts enough to do about 1-1.5cm of bottom melt a day.

This is why I don't believe a new record is coming.

There is just about no chance that ice melts out.

I thought for a while that it was possible but the most recent push of heat into the Western CAB/Beaufort it's to underwhelming.


And the weather forecasts are very good for protection of the ice.

Expecially the Beaufort region after day 4-5.

I think this year will finish in the top 3.

But over coming the CAA, Beaufort, and Western CAB.

No way and the Atlantic side has seen almost no Southerly WAA.

The Laptev and ESS could make a push towards the pole with open water tho.



44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 12, 2019, 05:58:01 AM »
After cyclone in a couple of few days, I only care about how many ice will be disintegrated in the arctic basin. Now I DO NOT care about the insolation. It should be a great chance that disintegrated ice will melt out in septemeber because there are almost 2 month left to melt. So let us see what is left after several days cyclone weather.

That cyclone isn't going to do shit.


45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 11, 2019, 11:29:54 PM »
It's just a huge task.

Here is 2012 on September 14th.


46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 11, 2019, 07:38:45 PM »
You guys are completely overestimating how hard it is for the ice in the cab to melt north of 80 degrees north.

We haven't had that peak Insolation hit the CAB

A new record is unlikely.





47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 11, 2019, 07:08:55 PM »
I think you guys are

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 11, 2019, 02:35:33 PM »


While the Chukchi has melted out much sooner than previous years, many of these same years still approached zero ice by the end of the melt season. I think the early melt out has far more implications for the next freeze season as the waters have warmed more than previous years. I would expect the Chukchi to struggle to freeze and the thickness of the ice at the end of the freeze season will be an all time low.

This might be the beginning of the interior having issues refreezing completely.


We knew this day was coming. 

Where were you when the Bering ice ended.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 11, 2019, 01:09:35 PM »

The ESS is collapsing is at its very end now.

It's really amazing to see on satellite you can see the ice just crushed. 

It's got that Flat Dark rubbly look.  Usually when ice reaches a half a meter stick or less it reaches that point.

you can see bigger loads mixed in with that but right now the ESS is being completely decimated bye Zeus level Heat.

and in a few days a decent lie powerful Vortex is going to park its ass over the ESS.


We might see a little bit of a weaker slower ending to the ESS similar to the great article Cyclone of 2012.

either way in the ESS is gone in this world text coming in is going to bring Warm southerly Winds to the Western Cab.

It is likely by July 16th to 17th that 2019 might separate itself from the pack is the lowest by quite a bit if we see a collapse of the ESS and parts of the Western Cab.


Stay tuned for more drama and action next time on frivolous Channel 5.


Most of the ESS is over 3 degrees Celsius at the surface.

you can see the Dome of heat pressing end there's enough wind to create mixing this is absolutely treacherous for the ESS.


3 degrees Celsius is enough to melt 10 cm of ice a day off the top.


Not only that with the decent winds and already warm sea surface temperatures in the area there is bottom. Going on as well.

we really could see the ESS completely collapsed over the next week I'm talking like a half a million square kilometers of extent maybe up to a million.


I don't know this isn't like The Great Arctic cyclone but the heat that's in the ice and heat that is around the ice is unprecedented so maybe this week or Vortex will be enough to stir things up to cause some collapse.

2019 is going to come very close to a new record.


We have to remember all the snow on the ice has been melted off there is nowhere that the Albedo isn't down to Bare ice level.


so to end this post if we do see the collapse of the ESS in the next few days all bets are off

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 11, 2019, 11:24:37 AM »
If the current forecast for correct there will be a lot of compaction in the Beaufort sea next week.

But the euro just brushes the vortex off and back to ridgeland.

Hardly any cold pool to speak of.


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