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Messages - pietkuip

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1
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: Today at 12:59:32 PM »
just saw interviews with Italian mayors .. they are convinced mortality has been much higher , at least double that recorded. This echos the reports from Spain and the UK .. if only hospital deaths with a confirmed test are counted , then even health workers now dying at home (UK) do not count

No need for guessing anymore, it is showing up in total death rates at http://www.euromomo.eu/

See different countries and regions for detail.

2
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: Today at 11:16:57 AM »
Now - of course - humanity may fail to extirpate this virus. In that case, we will lose 4-12% of the population over the next year or two, and it will become an ongoing predator, culling the old and infirm, the unhealthy, and the weak. In time, those who are genetically less vulnerable will prevail and have children, lessening the impact of the virus; and conversely - suppressing those genetic lines that are less able to withstand its ravages.

Sam

Extirpation has only succeeded with smallpox (almost). It needs a vaccine.

And Sam keeps ignoring data. I am sure he knows the Gangelt result where 15 % had had the infection at the time of the study. Death rates are ten times lower than his lower boundary. Lower than 0.4 % of the population (which is about 10 times as bad as a bad flu season).

Data should be more convincing than such looong pieces of overly dramatic prose.

3
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 09, 2020, 07:41:45 PM »
Dutch mortality monitor through the roof:



Again, the excess deaths were about twice as many as the lab-confirmed corona deaths in that week (936).

https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland

4
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 04, 2020, 09:38:33 PM »
Quote
The week of 19 march had 871-1181 more deaths then usual.
World meter shows 179 total deaths Sunday 22 march for  Netherlands.  :o

Worldmeter shows deaths with a corona diagnosis.

This shows all deaths: https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland

Excess deaths was about 1000.

Same kind of difference as in Nembro.

5
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 03, 2020, 04:47:38 PM »
Does the fact the western european countries are in the 'top' with deaths/million say something about how bad we are reacting on the virus or how bad the statistics in other countries are?
It depends a bit on the size of sampling. Some states of the US would be very high too.

Many peripheral regions will get it later.

6
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 03, 2020, 03:53:37 PM »
Re: the graph above.
In the winter of 2018 our ICU's weren't overrun.


Yeah, what happened there? What's the reason for that spike?

In the first months of 2018, there was the seasonal flu. About 9000 excess deaths in the Netherlands, 0.05 % of the population. Often in care homes or just at home. One sees a lower than usual mortality in the months after that peak.

Notice also the small global-warming related spike last summer.

The last data is deaths from a week ago. It will continue rising.

7
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 03, 2020, 02:40:26 PM »
Dutch mortality data:


The excess mortality is about twice as high as the number of confirmed corona deaths in that period.

There was a slight excess for people 45-54 years old, an excess for the 54-64 year-olds, and a large excess for the older people.

https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland

8
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 02, 2020, 11:26:47 PM »
The European Mortality Monitor updated:
http://www.euromomo.eu/


Significant upticks in Italy and Spain, also in England

9
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 02, 2020, 05:10:05 AM »
...
I follow the statistics, projections and reports published daily by Swedish health authorities. As of today some new advice and recommendations regarding distancing on public transport and in supermarkets were published. It is now forbidden to visit care homes for the elderly.
...

Swedish bureaucracy at its worst. On Tuesday March 31 they finally decided that our elderly need to be protected. WOW!

For how long did they already know that C19 kills first of all the sick and elderly? First reports about this came in the beginning of February afaik. Statistics and scientifical evidence from Wuhan. More than 6 weeks were lost doing nothing to protect our most vulnerable groups.

Due to their negligence to react and to act in due time on evidence they had, those Swedish politicians and bureaucrats are actively killing our elderly.
Murderers they are.

Ridiculous inflammatory language.

As long as there was no community spread, it did not make any difference, right?

Then there was an advice, which many people listened to.

Now there is an order not to visit relatives in care homes (but I doubt whether it is legally enforceable).

And in the end, it won't make much of a difference. Staff will still go in and out, and have closer contact with the old than what visitors have.

10
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 01, 2020, 11:47:58 PM »
Give me a break. When you see relatively young people spend months in the ICU or die, hundreds of dead a day needing a ice rink to place the bodies, over 80 year old being denied ICU space based on survival chances, you come back and tell me. My government was way too slow, yours sounds suicidal.

Written by a guy complaining about a "smarty tone"...

11
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 01, 2020, 08:25:32 PM »
They can't. ICUs and hospital beds per habitant are comparable to the rest of Europe. It's a relatively big population. They will suffer a lot of government-caused pain, and COVID will become the first cause of death for a few weeks as it has happened in other countries. Hospitals will be swamped, we already know what happens then.

Governments are causing pain by confining people to their homes.

The big pain is caused by the virus. Deaths per capita will be quite similar in all countries, I expect. Eventually, by the end of this year.

(Except Kazakhstan, where the word is forbidden now.)

12
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 01, 2020, 06:43:31 PM »
I am amazed by the figures for South Africa
https://covid19info.live/southafrica/

This country does not make the headlines, although it seems, dumbly looking at the figures, that it has curbed the outbreak far better than European countries (not to mention USA).

I just saw that a leading virologist in South Africa had died: Prof. Gita Ramjee:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-52120265
https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/prominent-virologist-gita-ramjee-dies-from-coronavirus/article31223651.ece

There must be many non-prominent people that died. Without being recorded as corona-related deaths.

13
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 01, 2020, 04:43:37 PM »
My university has circulated this letter regarding COVID from Professor John Ioannidis, an epidemiologist from Stanford.

Quote
Importantly, this year we are dealing with thousands, not tens of millions deaths.

That is already out of date (12 000 deaths in Italy alone now).

If current death rates continue for two weeks, there will be millions.

Is this a Trumpist?

14
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 30, 2020, 01:09:56 PM »
@pietkuip what WaPo forgets to mention is that, in countries like Taiwan or Singapore, kids can go to school 'normally' but following significant protection measures and equipment. That's how they contain it.

This is not just some journalist. This is a leading epidemiologist:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Osterholm

Don't think that you know things that he forgot.

15
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 30, 2020, 08:56:15 AM »
Actually, the more relevant piece by Osterholm to this particular discussion is in the WaPo from March 21st "Facing covid-19 reality: A national lockdown is no cure" But it's behind a paywall (I thought WaPo wasn't doing that for covid related pieces! )

If anyone can get a copy of all or some of it, that would be appreciated.
 

Here it comes (I do not do this for the newest articles, but this was written a while ago).
He sounds like the state experts here in Sweden.

Quote
Covid-19 will go away eventually in one of two ways. Either we will develop a vaccine to prevent it, or the virus will burn itself out as the spread of infection comes to confer a form of herd immunity on the population. Neither of those possibilities will occur quickly.

It is time to face reality. We urgently need a unified national strategy, one informed by the best science about stopping diseases like covid-19 and from virus control efforts in China, Singapore and Hong Kong, as well as realistic projections of the human and economic toll of any option we pursue. Our way of life cannot survive an indefinite series of short-term action plans.

We have to ask what we hope to accomplish with limited self-quarantines and shelter-in-place directives. Clearly, as one objective, we seek to “flatten the curve” in an effort to keep our already overburdened health-care system from being overrun. The ability of our hospitals to continue providing care to a flood of covid-19 patients, while still treating the other patients they normally have, all the while protecting health-care professionals, will be a major factor in reducing bad outcomes for victims of the coronavirus and other illnesses as well.

But how do we actually accomplish this? What happens after a several-week moratorium on normal activity? Does the president, governor or mayor declare another? While California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) has made a courageous move by locking down his state, how long can 40 million California residents be kept at home? And will it be long enough to make a significant difference?

China and Italy have imposed near-draconian lockdowns in an effort to halt the spread of covid-19. But how and when will these two “test” nations return to normal life? And when they do, will there be a major second wave of cases? If that happens, should they simply “rinse and repeat”?

As a country, with momentum building for a possible national shutdown directive, we are on the verge of ringing a giant bell that we don’t know how to un-ring.

Yet we don’t, for example, have good data on the real impact of closing public and private K-12 schools on the spread of covid-19. Hong Kong and Singapore, advanced city-states that experienced the outbreak early, both attempted to respond quickly and efficiently. Hong Kong closed schools; Singapore did not, and there was hardly any difference in the rate of transmission. The second-order effect of shutting schools is that hardest hit will be those least able to afford to miss work to care for homebound children. And what of our health professionals with children? Add to that firefighters, police officers, utility workers, delivery drivers and other essential personnel, and the magnitude of the problem is clear.

The Imperial College of London has produced a sobering study on possible covid-19 strategies. Three scenarios compare the outcomes of flattening the curve (mitigation), suppression (long-term quarantine) and letting the virus take its natural course (doing nothing), modeling the levels of disease and death for each course. The stark takeaway: Significantly reducing the number of serious illnesses and deaths would require a near-total lockdown until an effective vaccine is available, probably at least 18 months from now.

Consider the effect of shutting down offices, schools, transportation systems, restaurants, hotels, stores, theaters, concert halls, sporting events and other venues indefinitely and leaving all of their workers unemployed and on the public dole. The likely result would be not just a depression but a complete economic breakdown, with countless permanently lost jobs, long before a vaccine is ready or natural immunity takes hold. We can’t have everyone stay home and still produce and distribute the basics needed to sustain life and fight the disease.

We are in uncharted territory. But the best alternative will probably entail letting those at low risk for serious disease continue to work, keep business and manufacturing operating, and “run” society, while at the same time advising higher-risk individuals to protect themselves through physical distancing and ramping up our health-care capacity as aggressively as possible. With this battle plan, we could gradually build up immunity without destroying the financial structure on which our lives are based.

Very soon, we may have to acknowledge that attempting to stretch out cases in the hopes of keeping the curve reasonably flat is unworkable. Then, as we wait for either our scientific or natural redeemer to come, we can start trying to put things as back to normal as we can — doing our best to protect those at high risk, but acknowledging that people will get sick, some will die, and our health-care system is going to be overrun to a great extent no matter what we do.


There is no black-or-white option here. We will have to figure out what shade of gray we can accept and apply. We will get through this, but hard and painful choices are inescapable.

16
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 29, 2020, 11:11:17 PM »
In the meantime, cursing is no reason for me to stay inside. I intend to go to work tomorrow at the university. The canteen will still be open.

So - cursing offends you. But the huge death tolls don't. Man that is quite the set of values and priorities you have.

Sam

At least your personal insults were uncharacteristically concise!

It is just that I don't find cursing or insults terribly convincing.

17
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 29, 2020, 10:59:17 PM »
Seeing how you don't get it maybe this is more your level.
Watch.

https://thespinoff.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Side_Eye_26_VIRUSES_VS_EVERYONE_09.gif

That animated gif is misleading. Would maybe apply to an STD, but not to this bug. This epidemic is more like a forest fire. Removing a single tree does not have any effect whatsoever on the course of a wildfire.

This is becoming another of those Neven's branded 'stupid discussions', but @pietkuip, you seem just fine with catching it, becoming a vector, spread it to six or seven, and, for thinking only about yourself, collaborating to collapse hospitals sooner than later.
Not saying you don't do it, only that science and past data seem to support this outcome. If you're OK with it...
Enjoy the canteen.
Take care of you, and maybe your grandpas!

Parents and grandparents are beyond the reach of this bug.

It does not matter whether I am ok with getting it or not. There is no escape.
If I develop pneumonia, I may choose to die in my own bed.

18
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 29, 2020, 10:27:00 PM »
Quote
I am following the current advice of the local authorities. Like almost everybody in Sweden.
No policing necessary. No army on the streets.
I give Sweden two weeks before they get it .
Stay the fuck at home.
We have lock down here only essential business running all else is closed.
The police are pulling over cars and asking what you are doing.
No one is being prosecuted or anything  it is simply a genial friendly reminder from the local plod  to the very small minority ignoring the directive .
Stay the fuck at home.

Did I say it enough ?
Stay the fuck at home for fucks sake .

Sweden got it. We know that the situation will be much worse two weeks from now. Already one week from now, more changes in behaviour are likely to be advised. There are also legal preparations for emergency measures.

In the meantime, cursing is no reason for me to stay inside. I intend to go to work tomorrow at the university. The canteen will still be open.

19
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 29, 2020, 10:02:42 PM »
Why should I listen to German orders? (And from which Bundesland anyway?)

You should listen to people like Sam, Sigma_squared, SteveMD, etc. The info is all here in this very thread! Don't they tell a fucking convincing story?

Sam is not convincing, discards data that do not fit in his view of the situation.

A-team was posting rubbish by a quack, got support from several others here (I don't remember names).

Achimid is a mask-fundamentalist. Supported the Texan raid in Mexico!

So, frankly, I am not impressed with this crowd, the wide-spread disdain for experts here. Now for example a rant by someone against Fauci.

I hear the reasoned advice by the experts of the Swedish health authority and I follow it. Would probably also follow it in cases where I did not agree. Would certainly follow local orders.

I have no illusions about the future: different policies won't make much of a difference in the end.


20
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 29, 2020, 09:36:42 PM »
"They actually started preparing for this on Dec. 31. They were testing on Dec. 31," Kullar said.

That cannot be true. Unless he means taking temperatures.

21
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 29, 2020, 09:30:52 PM »
I am happy not to be locked up. Cycled today to a café in the countryside for coffee and cake.

Freedom bites everyone in the ass when you grab it when you shouldn't.

I am following the current advice of the local authorities. Like almost everybody in Sweden.
No policing necessary. No army on the streets.

Why should I listen to German orders? (And from which Bundesland anyway?)

22
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 29, 2020, 09:22:33 PM »

pps: I'm a beaten up old man.That Spanish health data*** says when it comes to the last line....(i.e dead)

                           Total          Mujeres     Hombres
    Defunción         1044              369        675 (4,7)

What the last ISCIII report has discovered is a big anomaly in Spain deaths statistics. When looking at deceases from all causes past week, the numbers show a huge positive anomaly wrt previous years, clearly due to covid-19. However, the official death count by covid-19 is about HALF that anomaly! The reason of this discrepancy is not clear and is being investigated. Apparently, some people are not being tested after death and they had never been tested (did not get to hospital even???). Others were assigned an existing condition as reason of death (cancer, autoimmune disease, etc). Who knows. The perpetrators are investigating so we probably won't ever know.

So you cannot trust the statistics on deaths even.

Not all corona-related deaths are recorded. Why go to the hospital when you won't get any help there? Dutch doctors are now asking there patients what they want when they get the virus. I know that I would rather die at home than in a sports arena.

The Dutch mortality statistics show the same thing: a clear uptick in the most recent week with numbers, much larger than the officially diagnosed number of corona deaths that week.

Next week's data will go off scale.



From: https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland


23
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 29, 2020, 09:03:20 PM »
Is Sweden now the only country that's going for group immunity ?

Is there any other way? Does any country believe they can hold out until mass vaccination would be available? Or a cure?

I watched https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ondemand/video/5001289/
In that Japanese video, the government expert was not confident that they would be able to avoid overshoots of the healthcare capacity.

I am happy not to be locked up. Cycled to a café in the countryside for coffee and cake.

China.

China still keeps the people of Wuhan locked up. Food is delivered to them. That works because Beijing and Shanghai have that power in a dictatorship.

But they will need to lift the restrictions. While that Japanese documentary showed lines at the hospital. And their medical officer was not optimistic.

24
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 29, 2020, 08:50:04 PM »
Is Sweden now the only country that's going for group immunity ?

Is there any other way? Does any country believe they can hold out until mass vaccination would be available? Or a cure?

I watched https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ondemand/video/5001289/
In that Japanese video, the government expert was not confident that they would be able to avoid overshoots of the healthcare capacity.

I am happy not to be locked up. Cycled today to a café in the countryside for coffee and cake.

25
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 29, 2020, 12:50:32 AM »
A well-thought out post Grubbbengrabben. I was wondering about the rationale behind the Swedish situation.
I believe 1 and 2 are wrong. Experience in Italy has shown that young asymptomatic people were major drivers of spreading the disease. In addition, not only old people are at risk, and hospitalization rates are high even for young people, which could lead to health system overwhelm.
I hope for your sake that I am wrong.
This article explains some social differences:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/28/as-the-rest-of-europe-lives-under-lockdown-sweden-keeps-calm-and-carries-on

In the end, there will be few differences. And they may be related more to other stuff (smoking for example) than to policy.

In the meantime, we might as well try to enjoy the Spring.

26
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 28, 2020, 10:21:30 PM »
Interesting Japanese documentary:
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ondemand/video/5001289/

Japan is struggling to contain this, to keep track of clusters and shut them down.

Also interesting footage about Wuhan. Not much reason for optimism there.

27
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 26, 2020, 06:48:00 PM »
Deaths ticked up in the Netherlands in the week from March 12 to 18.

This graph shows all deaths, independent of diagnosis.

Many more deaths than usually among the 75+ group.
Concentrated in the southern provinces.
https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland


28
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 26, 2020, 09:49:50 AM »
'That's When All Hell Broke Loose': Coronavirus Patients Start to Overwhelm US Hospitals
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/03/25/health/coronavirus-covid-hospitals/index.html

... "We don't have the machines, we don't have the beds," ... "To think that we're in New York City and this is happening," he added. "It's like a third-world country type of scenario. It's mind-blowing."

... "Last week when I went to work, we talked about the one or two patients amongst the dozens of others that might have been a Covid or coronavirus patient," Spencer told CNN's Anderson Cooper Tuesday. "In my shift yesterday, nearly every single patient that I took care of was coronavirus, and many of them extremely severe. Many were put on breathing tubes. Many decompensated quite quickly.

A new term to learn: respiratory decompensation.

I think it just means that one dies, right?

29
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 26, 2020, 01:20:30 AM »
Sweden (with just 10 million inhabitants) now ranks #13 in number of deaths.

Everywhere in the West, death rates increase about 10-fold in a bit more than a week, 1000-fold in a month.

Graph from https://observablehq.com/@neelance/corvid-19-trends?collection=@observablehq/coronavirus

30
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 26, 2020, 01:00:58 AM »
I am surprised a Northern Europe country like Netherlands is not far the Southern Europe countries. Do they cheek-kiss too?
Carnival explains it. Most cases are in North-Brabant. It is a few days of unconventionality. Just when corona got a foothold.

31
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 25, 2020, 05:46:51 PM »
Dutch numbers

Deaths 356 +80

Not all these deaths are from yesterday some are from a couple of days ago.

I suppose this means that they did post-mortem tests on people that died at home or in a care home.

32
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 25, 2020, 08:54:04 AM »
As to the "mystery" of the comparatively low death rate in Germany, this source maintains that a good part of that is due to deficiencies in the German system of issuing death certificates. 

Similar things happen in other countries. Deaths in a hospital intensive-care unit will be counted, but  other ones do not get in the statistics. And when the hospitals are overwhelmed, more and more corona cases are missed.

We will soon see.  Tomorrow a new update is due of the stats at http://www.euromomo.eu/
That has a lag of two weeks.

33
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 24, 2020, 03:07:39 PM »
people were getting together on some beaches and in a forest which is huge but they all went to see the Japanese trees in blossom.

It does not matter. Almost all transmission will be happening inside.

34
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 24, 2020, 11:23:53 AM »
This is a most sad and difficult time.

It could have been less sad and less difficult - a lot less. Unfortunately, all of the things required to do that require foresight and planning. We humans are not very good at that. More than this it required learning from the past. We are generally really bad at that. And most of all it required understanding and believing in acting on warnings, using the precautionary principle and variations on that, and on understanding math, particularly exponential math. And the vast majority of humans are absolutely terrible at that.

[...]
Addenda. Oddly too, the inability to understand the basic math involves lead to many absurd things. One of those is evident today. The head of the WHO was quoted today as saying the pandemic is "accelerating". This appears to be the case when you think linearly. The counts of those infected and those killed are increasing exponentially. Yet in truth, the pandemic is slowly decelerating. The rate of growth caused by the exponential is slowing. In math terms he is factually wrong and has it backwards. Still, in human terms it is a true statement.

One of the difficulties with exponential problems is that they look very much like nothing is happening for a very long time. Then seemingly suddenly and out of no where they seem to explode. They were exploding all along. The time to have gotten excited was long ago. Now comes the time for reflection and repentance at our collective failings and the harms those caused.

It will be easier to understand when it is is communicated more clearly.

The number of deaths grows with a factor 10 in (slightly longer than) a week. Then it is easy to understand how soon it will be 100 times as bad. How soon it will be 1000 times as bad (about a month). And how soon it will be a million times as bad, if that is possible.

Select "deaths" in these graphs. Adjust the number of countries shown. Most countries in the West are on the same slope.
https://observablehq.com/@neelance/corvid-19-trends?collection=@observablehq/coronavirus

35
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 22, 2020, 08:28:42 PM »
https://medium.com/wintoncentre/how-much-normal-risk-does-covid-represent-4539118e1196

The chance of dying from all causes increases with age in much the same way as the chance of dying from a COVID infection and is roughly a year's worth of normal risk. (assumes health care not overwhelmed when you are ill, make that roughly two years rather than one if the epidemic is allowed to rage unchecked)

Quote
Average risk of death doubles in 8 years.

COVID-19 very roughly contributes a year’s worth of risk [of dying].

That offers some rational perspective.

So that that mean that this year is as dangerous for any of us as the year 2028 would have been?

I am turning 60 this year. So this year could be about as risky for my life as if I would be 68. That sounds risky.

That would be the case if the COVID risk exactly followed the age risk, but it doesn't. The COVID risk is a bit higher than the age risk in the 60s and a bit lower at other ages. Also if almost everyone gets it the risk is quite a bit higher. If there is an unchecked epidemic this year I reckon it would add in the region of 20 years worth of risk to those in their 60s. i.e. the mortality among those in the 60s this year would be like the mortality among those in their 80s last year.

For an individual there are massive error bars on that because there isn't data for how co-morbidities affect the COVID risk and they strongly affect an individual's background risk.


I am not aiming to be exact. Just trying to get a feel for the risk.

According to the linked article, this virus is expected to double the number of deaths this year. That is about 56 million extra deaths (which fits with my choice in the poll).

Of course it is pretty random. My risk to die this year in something unrelated to corona is not very high I think (no medical issues that I am aware of, just a bit overweight). My risk to die in corona will be way higher than my ordinary risk this year. It will be the risk of a random 68-year old. The kind of person that no bank will lend money to, because they are not unlikely to die. That is a bit scary.

A young person does not be terribly worried. If you are 30, the risk to die of the virus is about as large as the risk of any random 38-year old in a year.

36
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 22, 2020, 01:09:05 PM »
People tend to listen only to what they like, so if too many people listen to you, beaches and playgrounds will be full again.

The risks at the beaches should be negligible compared to shopping, busses, etc.

Let them play at Bondi beach. I understand it is provocative, but what one should do is to try to explain things. Instead of giving in to the Facebook crowd.

37
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 22, 2020, 03:09:11 AM »
https://medium.com/wintoncentre/how-much-normal-risk-does-covid-represent-4539118e1196

The chance of dying from all causes increases with age in much the same way as the chance of dying from a COVID infection and is roughly a year's worth of normal risk. (assumes health care not overwhelmed when you are ill, make that roughly two years rather than one if the epidemic is allowed to rage unchecked)

Quote
Average risk of death doubles in 8 years.

COVID-19 very roughly contributes a year’s worth of risk [of dying].

That offers some rational perspective.

So that that mean that this year is as dangerous for any of us as the year 2028 would have been?

I am turning 60 this year. So this year could be about as risky for my life as if I would be 68. That sounds risky.

38
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 22, 2020, 01:47:55 AM »
Horrific account of the already untenable situation in NOLA, and of just what horrible damage this thing can do, and how very fast it can happen: https://www.alternet.org/2020/03/medical-worker-describes-terrifying-lung-failure-from-covid-19-even-in-his-young-patients/

Not sure I trust this source or the anonymous 1st person account.

That is a very valid comment. It gives some confidence that this is from Pro Publica. The original link is:
https://www.propublica.org/article/a-medical-worker-describes--terrifying-lung-failure-from-covid19-even-in-his-young-patients

Their writer is "Lizzie Presser", which sounds like pseudonym. Still, I tend to believe it.


39
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 21, 2020, 10:59:07 PM »
Nice graphs etienne. Deaths are far more reliable than case counts. However I am certain Iran deaths are vastly underreported.

I agree. And Italy is underreported too, all the cases where there never was a test or a diagnosis for an old person who did not die in a hospital.

Here you can display the deaths on a logarithmic scale (chose "deaths" for the Y-dimension):
https://observablehq.com/@neelance/corvid-19-trends?collection=@observablehq/coronavirus

The data will be updated a few hours from now. Sweden will show 20. But Sam thinks that those statistics are meaningless...

40
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 21, 2020, 10:41:36 PM »
So far Sam has been far more accurate than any experts in the media. Pietkuip not so much. Denial politics.

Hilarious - one is wrong here when one uses references to experts to criticize the wordy loudmouths on this site.

A-team's warm-water quack now gets support from the Malaysian health minister:
Quote
The Health Minister appeared on RTM's Bicara Naratif programme on Thursday (March 19) night and claimed that the virus cannot take heat, and that the warm water would also flush virus into the stomach.

"Do not drink water that is not boiled. Drink a glass of water that is warm because the virus does not like warm things. Make sure (the water) is not too hot.

"The virus will go down (the oesophagus) and when it reaches the stomach which has acids, the virus dies. That's how we eliminate the virus.

"What's important is that we have to kill the virus in our throats before it reaches our lungs.

"This virus, it likes the lower part of the lungs. It likes to stay there. That's why it is said that this virus loves human beings," he said.
https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2020/03/20/health-minister039s-039warm-water-method039-to-kill-coronavirus-questioned




41
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 21, 2020, 06:54:42 PM »
pietkuip,

I am now going to completely ignore you as you are being belligerently stupid. The public databases show extremely low counts of dead or recovered people as compared to the count of those sick. Even with expanded and expansive testing in an exponential situation like this, the numbers do not make any sense. I don't create those numbers. I didn't report the numbers. I am simply observing that the counts aren't there. And the absence of that data then makes any inference about the lethality of the virus in those countries meaningless.

Instead of trying to understand that or what may be causing that you have seemingly decided to become outraged that anyone would question the data out of some form of apparently misplaced pride. Go away.

Sam

So you somehow "know" that people are dying in Sweden and in Germany that are not reported. Cases that we don't know of here.

Are you saying that there are secret mass graves here? And in Germany? That also the US satellite observers are keeping quiet about?

That would make you a conspiracy-theorist nut.

I don't mind that you ignore me. But you ignore good data. 

42
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 21, 2020, 05:58:12 PM »
There have been a lot of comments about various countries not having as many deaths as expected, Germany and Sweden among them..

But please notice and compare how many cases each country is reporting. Then, how many deaths they are reporting, AND how many recoveries they are reporting.

Many of the countries with the unusually low death reports also have unusually low recovery rates. In essence - it appears that they simply aren't reporting. As a result, the statistics are meaningless.

You are just saying that you are ignoring the data of the best bureaucracies in the world.

This makes you look dogmatic, not scientific...

I am not ignoring anything. I am using what little data is available to us in public databases, and commenting on that. Don't be stupid.

Sam

You are calling the statistics produced by bureaucracies that have a reputation for Grundligkeit meaningless. 

Don't be stupid.

43
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 21, 2020, 02:07:09 PM »
There have been a lot of comments about various countries not having as many deaths as expected, Germany and Sweden among them..

But please notice and compare how many cases each country is reporting. Then, how many deaths they are reporting, AND how many recoveries they are reporting.

Many of the countries with the unusually low death reports also have unusually low recovery rates. In essence - it appears that they simply aren't reporting. As a result, the statistics are meaningless.

You are just saying that you are ignoring the data of the best bureaucracies in the world.

This makes you look dogmatic, not scientific...

44
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 21, 2020, 10:22:58 AM »
If blinding yourself counts as "something right", certainly.

Sweden is not blinding itself.

You seem to be closing your eyes for data that do not fit in your preconceptions.

Sweden has stopped doing as much testing

https://www.thelocal.se/20200320/fact-check-has-sweden-stopped-testing-people-for-the-coronavirus

That article says:
Quote
By March 17th, Sweden had carried out 1,412.8 tests per million people living in the country, putting it slightly behind Italy (2,514), but ahead of Denmark (1,314.5), the UK (749.1) and the US (125.4) for example.

Testing rate is increasing (as it is everywhere, I suppose).

Archimid: of course, it is not "under control" in Sweden. The situation is unmanageable.

45
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 21, 2020, 09:43:25 AM »
If blinding yourself counts as "something right", certainly.

Sweden is not blinding itself.

You seem to be closing your eyes for data that do not fit in your preconceptions.

46
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 21, 2020, 08:54:04 AM »
Here in Sweden, I am still free to leave the house, to go shopping, to have dinner in a restaurant, etc.

According to this article, Sweden and the UK may be doing something right.
https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/03/coronavirus-growth-in-western-countries-march-17-update/


47
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 20, 2020, 09:10:30 PM »
All countries in the West seem to have very similar rates of growth of the number of deaths: about tenfold in a week. The differences in numbers are mostly related to the delay in onset, which depends on chance and on the size of the population. And maybe a bit on vigilance.

So far, the control group (UK, Sweden) is not really that different from the rest.

https://observablehq.com/@neelance/corvid-19-trends?collection=@observablehq/coronavirus

48
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 19, 2020, 11:43:21 PM »
I feel bad for being so scared, but I no longer know how to feel. I've read up and listened to so many things at this point...

The only way I can aptly articulate how I feel is like waiting in silence for a massive invisible monster to arrive...

I think that is how we all feel. There is no community spread yet in my neck of the woods in Southern Sweden. Restaurants and most things are still open, life is almost normal, but most people are worried.

I just saw video from a hospital in Italy. It is truly frightening. And army vehicles transporting coffins to be buried outside the region because cemeteries cannot cope.

Your employer is an arsehole.

49
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 19, 2020, 03:12:47 AM »
I heard on the news on BBC World Radio about the record number of dead in Italy, and that this was not the complete number, because people that die in nursing homes without a test are not included.

I suspect that this is also why the US has a somewhat lower rate of increase: people are dying without a diagnosis.

50
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 18, 2020, 10:59:16 PM »
So far, there is no community spread in my neck of the Swedish woods, according to the local epidemiologist in the local TV news. The virus is on the loose in Stockholm, and he said that we are usually about two weeks behind with an ordinary influensa.

This is a different bug, there is no immunity, so it might travel faster. On the other hand, with the current social distancing, it might be slowed down. We will see. This time, we are happy to be lagging :)

I am mostly at home. Tomorrow I will start with oral exams, instead of the ordinary written exam at the university. That was cancelled yesterday morning. We are scrambling to adjust. Students are surprisingly eager to take this exam! I hope the servers won't be overburdened.

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