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Messages - Midnightsun

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Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: November 21, 2019, 08:50:32 AM »
So my speculation that belongs to me is to see more often extreme cold + snow followed by extreme warmth. But who knows what this winter will bring.

Extreme cold + snow followed by extreme warmth has been delivered here in Northernmost Sweden. From -30C and snowcover at start of November (extreme cold anomaly -10C), to +3C and rain for days now (extreme warm anomaly +10C).

It was also strangely humid despite the cold degrees.

Consequences / Re: The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event
« on: July 15, 2019, 04:39:17 PM »
I live above 60N and the changes are already very noticeable.

The problem with the jet stream is not when it becomes slower and wider, the problem is that it becomes like a flower and that creates all kinds of weird and extreme weather - and it has done so already. 2018 the UK got "vortex'd" in springtime, this year it was the US.

The river of hail in Mexico and the killer 'nado in Greece happened at the same time as kink in the jet stream were positioned directly above them.

I don't understand why people think BOE is not a big deal since our entire civilization depends on the stability (that used to be) brought by the jet streams.

Antarctica / Re: SH Polar Vortex
« on: July 14, 2019, 11:28:12 PM »
Just bumping this, the apparently expanding south polar vortex versus winds contracting towards the pole, I was hoping someone could explain if both things can happen, they seem contradictory.

Hadley cell expansion/integration.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 30, 2019, 01:32:12 AM »
all gone!
click to animate~

No, that ice hasn't gone. In the summer, the SMOS maps aren't showing thickness, so the scale is misleading. It's best to crop that scale out of the images, gifs.

Not all gone, but all wet.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 18, 2019, 03:36:43 PM »
Interstitial, Midnightsun & Sebastian,

I believe that what you are referring to is called sheet flow. It happens from time to time on frozen soils, frozen rivers and even large deltas, as we have seen earlier this year.

In this particular case, I am convinced that the melting of snow happened in situ, hence we should not use the "flow" term.

Instead, I would suggest a new term: "Sheet melt". The first reference I could find alluded to the near complete melt taking place over the Greenland ice sheet in 2012. Other allusions could be found related to the melt water incidents preceding the collapse of some of the Antarctic ice shelves.

No, flödvatten is what happens in springwinter (the 5th season up here) when the air is above freezing, the sun has reappeared and the snow melts on top of solid ice, and there can also be water pressing up from underneath later in the season. It's what's called melt ponding here on ASIF but I think the use of the word pond is a bit strange, since it can be anything from a puddle to a lake size.

Maybe "over-ice melt water" is more correct? Bit of a bother. OIMW  ;D?

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 16, 2019, 10:29:00 PM »
Any suggestions for naming shallow melt water on top of ice? I got nothing.

In Swedish it's called flödvatten (flowwater).

Consequences / Re: Effects on Arctic Wildlife
« on: June 14, 2019, 09:52:29 AM »
Here's a lil theory on the deaths: the zooplankton collapsed due to starving on microplastics, and the dominos fell all the way up the chain.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 06, 2019, 08:29:22 PM »

Greetings from 65,5N in Scandinavia. It's freakishly hot today, we have +23C cloudless at 19:00. Which would be an insanely warm night in July, normally.

Buckle up. Summer is here.

Just for fun: Taivalkoski?

Nope other side of the pond :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 06, 2019, 07:00:59 PM »
Take a look at 6Z GFS.




Greetings from 65,5N in Scandinavia. It's freakishly hot today, we have +23C cloudless at 19:00. Which would be an insanely warm night in July, normally.

Buckle up. Summer is here.

Consequences / Re: World of 2030
« on: May 07, 2019, 07:39:09 PM »
I think everything will be almost the same, but shittier. It's going to happen slow enough to not cause widespread panic, but the "good old days" of steady climate and economic growth will be gone. Here are my predictions.

I haven't seen anyone here really dig into the problems with food production. Periods of drought interspersed with floods have killed civilizations before. Food insecurity causes unrest.

Food prices overall in Sweden increased 2-3% after the drought 2018. Potatoes went up by 20%. Nobody is starving, but that's just from one bad summer.

2030 in EU: Increased immigration, increased spending on firefighting and decreased food production will cause unrest to be more frequent (yellow vests, burning cars etc). Continued polarization of political parties. More problems with MRSA, declining herd immunity and vectorborn diseases. Summers are now hot and dry, south Europe is getting quick desertification, resulting in internal immigration. Winters are unpredictable and false springs become a dreaded phenomenon due to the adverse effects on plants and insect life.

North America: increase of national disasters is taking a toll on the budget and food security. Homelessness will continue to increase and medieval diseases in their camps will start to become a big problem, infecting non-homeless as well. Water contamination has continued and a larger part of the population is now in deeper poverty, both food-insecure and safe-water insecure.

SE Asia: The heatwaves are becoming a huge problem. Food production is down. Island populations have started relocating. China has probably done something unthinkable in order to decrease population growth. Several cat5 cyclones per year result in strained economies.

MENA: So very very dry and hot. Several more nations have imploded like Syria did.

Africa: Droughts. Lots of 'em. South Africa has a similar collapse like Venezuela, caused by lack of maintenance and planning. Mozambique is long gone and is now a saltmarsh.

South America: Brazil has decimated the Amazon and is now facing a big problem with soil erosion and floods. Food insecurity all over.

Artic: the endemic species are not doing well at all. Walrus and seal populations have collapsed and polar bear pop is now following. In the fringe areas the polar fox is almost gone, red fox having taken over. +30C-summer heatwaves are now the norm, causing a fast change in the flora. BOE... Possible.

Overall: diseases. Old ones rear their ugly heads, new ones pop up.

That's some pretty great hopium Nack. Let's hope the cooling factors save us from cooking. (I'm both sarcastic and serious, I really hope they do but I think hope is futile at the same time).

Has anyone done models with the cooling factors added to the scenarios?

Arctic sea ice / Re: Are 3 dimensions better than 2?
« on: April 03, 2019, 01:54:40 PM »
I was really pondering this while reading the other thread.

Loss of extent/area --> decreased albedo, increased potential for waves --> more melt

Loss of volume should logically lag behind since thin ice melts faster, and thick ice is more resistant to melt, but once it goes it's gone.

So imo, both are important to track but extent comes first.

(Why are climate deniers do obsessed with volume?)

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