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Messages - Tom_Mazanec

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1
Consequences / Re: 2019 ENSO
« on: October 17, 2019, 08:16:54 PM »
So there probably won't be an El Nino this year, am I correct?

2
Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: October 17, 2019, 08:14:40 PM »
Climate change could push Ebola into untouched regions, report warns
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/climate-change-could-push-ebola-untouched-regions-report-warns/
Quote
A
“perfect storm” of climate change, population growth and poverty could push Ebola into previously untouched regions, experts have warned.
In a study published in Nature Communications journal, researchers used a statistical model to predict how increases in temperature and socio-economic development will affect the spread of Ebola over the next five decades.
They found that in a worst-case scenario, the area at risk of disease outbreaks could increase by 14.7 per cent, stretching beyond the current endemic zone of central Africa. 
The study also found that human factors such as population growth, rising poverty levels and poor health infrastructure could cause a 50 per cent rise in the number of outbreaks.
Remember how scared we were of Ebola a few years ago? My cousin stocked up on rice to get us through the collapse of Civilization.

Greenland's melting ice may affect everyone's future
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/10/greenland-ice-oceans-melting-fast/
Quote
But exactly how much ice it will deposit, and how fast, is still an open question. Greenland is currently the biggest contributor to global sea level rise. By 2100, will its ice sheet’s melt add inches to the world’s oceans—or will it add much more?
That’s a trillion-dollar question. Nearly 70 percent of Earth’s population lives within 100 miles of a coast, and vast amounts of infrastructure—from airports to ports to cities to roads to Internet cables—sits in zones that could flood within decades. Small, low-lying island nations, city planners, insurance adjustors, homeowners—everyone is clamoring for the most accurate estimates of how much extra water they’ll need to prepare for.
Hail Atlantis! Way down, under the ocean; that's where you're gonna be

Can Insurance Companies Weather The Storm? What Climate Change Means For The Industry
https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2019/10/15/climate-change-insurance-coverage
Quote
Last year, insurance payouts caused by climate-related events totaled $2.4 trillion worldwide.
And with forecasts that climate events — floods, fires, hurricanes and droughts — will become more severe, the risk becomes more difficult to assess, and insurance companies may find it more difficult to cover those losses.
The Economist finance correspondent Matthieu Favas (@MatthieuFavas) recently wrote about the issue in an article titled "Changing Weather Could Put Insurance Firms Out of Business." He joins host Robin Young to discuss.
Insurance companies fulfill a very real need. Where will we be when they all go broke?

Anchorage talk will dive into ocean acidification’s impact on Alaska marine life
https://www.adn.com/business-economy/2019/10/15/anchorage-talk-will-dive-into-ocean-acidifications-impact-on-alaska-marine-life/
Quote
Ocean acidification is caused when carbon dioxide gas from the atmosphere dissolves in the ocean, lowering the water’s pH level and making it more acidic. The imbalance prevents marine creatures from forming shells and skeletons, among other things.
So even if we orbit millions of giant mirrors to cool off the Earth, we will still have an Extinction Level Event from rising CO2.

Is climate change responsible for the conflicts we’re seeing around the world today?
https://ensia.com/features/climate-change-conflict-violence-extremism-draught-flood/
Quote
An international group of scholars recently concluded that severe climate change will lead to more conflict in the future. But disentangling higher temperatures, drought and sea-level rise from other factors is difficult. Even though a link between climate change and violence is supported by many independent studies, there is little hard scientific evidence to directly link the two, says Alex de Waal, executive director of World Peace Foundation at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, who studied drought and famine in Darfur in the 1980s.
AGW doesn't help conflict on the world stage, that is for sure. Any conflict could spark a World War and leave us with A Canticle For Leibowitz.

Initiative Aims to Create 3D Map of the World Before Climate Change Alters It
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/initiative-aims-to-create-3d-map-of-the-world-before-climate-change-alters-it
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Scientists have launched a new initiative to create a highly detailed, 3D map of the planet. The project, known as the Earth Archive, aims to capture a record of cultural sites, ecosystems, and landscapes before they are transformed by the impacts of climate change, such as rising seas, melting ice, and wildfires.
“We are going to lose a significant amount of both cultural patrimony – so archaeological sites and landscapes – but also ecological patrimony – plants and animals, entire landscapes, geology, hydrology,” archaeologist Chris Fisher of Colorado State University, a co-founder of the new initiative, told The Guardian. “We really have a limited time to record those things before the Earth fundamentally changes.”
The nature of this thread makes it rather grim, but here is at least a small glimmer of light.

Future cool: Minnesota city ponders new boom as a climate migrant destination
http://news.trust.org/item/20191016103325-fija0/
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DULUTH, Minnesota, Oct 16 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Before the advent of air conditioning, this northern U.S. city on the shore of Lake Superior promoted itself as a cool summer haven for the sweaty and allergy affected.
One day Duluth might offer another kind of relief: As a haven for future U.S. migrants fleeing runaway heatwaves and other extreme weather elsewhere in the country.
When I was a little tyke this city became famous as the home of the Duluth Mongoose Mr. Magoo, narrowly saved from execution by the Federal Government. Maybe when the heat forces me to move there I can see his stuffed body.

Brussels seeks new solid ground in melting Arctic
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2019/10/brussels-seeks-new-solid-ground-melting-arctic
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Unprecedented and looming changes at alarming speed. The melting of the Arctic has devastating global implications and the EU is not ready to stand by watching.
Only three years after it adopted its Arctic Policy, the European Union now starts the work with a new Arctic strategy document.
The Arctic is opening up as a new frontier, with abundant resources, which is causing tension among the circumpolar nations.

Leader of Russia’s meteorological authority is brought down by extreme weather
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/ecology/2019/10/leader-russias-meteorological-authority-brought-down-extreme-weather
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No official reason has been given for the dismissal. But the Ministry of Emergency Situations reportedly had complained about insufficient warnings from Roshydromet ahead of this year’s major floods in the Far East. Ministry leader Yevgeny Zinichev had told President Putin that the consequences of the floods could have been avoided had meteorological information been given in due time, newspaper Vedomosti reports.
The federal government now says that Roshydromet is up for a major restructuring. According to the Ministry of Natural Resources, Roshydromet will experience a strengthening of material and technical capacities that ultimately will enhance the reliability of the monitoring and prognosis systems.
There is a scary consequence...a pink slip.


3
The rest / Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« on: October 17, 2019, 01:08:44 PM »
He is no denier, his novel about America half a millennium from now has a seaport at Nashville.
His point is that “ Do as I say, not as I do” is a nonstarter at getting people to change their behavior.

4
The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 17, 2019, 02:46:58 AM »
The eternal battle between Snow Miser and Heat Miser.
My money is on Heat Miser:

5
The rest / Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« on: October 16, 2019, 08:48:24 PM »
Well, I promised to link if he discussed climate change, so...
Heating Up The Political Climate
https://www.ecosophia.net/heating-up-the-political-climate/
Quote
So there’s an obvious way for the people who are most concerned about climate change to take drastic action concerning it:  they can change their own lifestyles.  One ingenious blogger has launched a campaign to encourage exactly that under the hashtag #BanPrivateJets.  It’s a great plan and it would do a lot of good; private jets owned by the rich and famous dump millions of pounds of CO2 into the atmosphere every year, and all of that could be done away with easily by banning private jets; what’s more, the people who would be inconvenienced by the ban are the wealthiest among us, and thus have ample resources to adapt.  So can we expect celebrity activists to voluntarily ground their jets anytime soon?  I don’t recommend holding your breath.
Au contraire, the behavior of climate change activists, and of the corporate media and multinational business interests that fund and promote them so lavishly, makes sense only if you assume that they want everyone else to stop using fossil fuels so that they don’t have to. The shrill claims of impending doom, the insistence that we’re in a climate emergency and everyone has to accept drastic restrictions that climate change activists show no trace of willingness to embrace in their own lives, make perfect sense if the game plan is to buffalo most of the people in the world’s industrial countries into accepting a sharply lower standard of living “for the planet,” so that the upper twenty per cent or so can maintain their current lifestyles unchanged.

6
You are welcome. I’m a poor typist myself.

7
Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: October 15, 2019, 08:28:09 PM »
Firms ignoring climate crisis will go bankrupt, says Mark Carney
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/13/firms-ignoring-climate-crisis-bankrupt-mark-carney-bank-england-governor
Quote
Companies and industries that are not moving towards zero-carbon emissions will be punished by investors and go bankrupt, the governor of the Bank of England has warned.
Mark Carney also told the Guardian it was possible that the global transition needed to tackle the climate crisis could result in an abrupt financial collapse. He said the longer action to reverse emissions was delayed, the more the risk of collapse would grow.
Do you own stock in a vulnerable company? Are you employed by a vulnerable company

This Is What Adapting to Climate Change Looks Like
https://www.citylab.com/environment/2019/10/what-adapting-climate-change-looks-like/599872/?utm_source=feed&silverid=%25%25RECIPIENT_ID%25%25
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California has always promised Americans a glimpse of the future. But this week, the Golden State is forecasting a future that nobody wants to live in.
Millions of people across California lost their power this week, after the local utility Pacific Gas and Electric intentionally shut off electrical lines to avoid starting wildfires in dangerously dry and windy conditions.
Try living without power for a few days. Preferably in a heat wave.

Forty Percent of Pennsylvania Bird Species Are Vulnerable to Climate Change
https://www.alleghenyfront.org/forty-percent-of-pennsylvania-bird-species-vulnerable-to-climate-change/
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“Forty percent of Pennsylvania’s 227 bird species are vulnerable to climate change,” said Greg Goldman, executive director of Audubon PA.  “Extreme spring heat is the greatest concern.”
The sound of the Great Horned Owl – so common in the woods of Pennsylvania today – could be less common if carbon emissions aren’t brought under control, said Goldman.
Another common sight in the region’s wetlands is the American black duck – not actually black but brown with a splash of purple on its wing.
“It’s a really iconic water bird, it’s here summer and winter,” said Beth Brown, director of Audubon PA’s Delaware River Watershed Program. “It’s kind of out there doing its job providing services in the ecosystem and it’s sort of your typical American duck.”
Brown says the American black duck is one of hundreds of birds nationwide that could lose habitat from a changing climate. Some are moving north, but that may not be an option for all of them.
Silent spring could happen even without DDT, just CO2.

Higher temperatures driving 'alarming' levels of hunger – report
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/oct/15/higher-temperatures-driving-alarming-levels-hunger-report-climate-crisis
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Extreme weather events are putting food production and security in jeopardy and the risk is expected to increase. Food production is likely to fall due to higher temperatures, water scarcity, greater CO2 and extreme weather events. Yields of maize and wheat are already declining.
and
Global Hunger Index says progress isn't happening fast enough
https://www.fastcompany.com/90417159/the-people-who-are-going-to-be-starved-by-climate-change-didnt-cause-it
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A new report finds that the fight to end global hunger is being put at risk by the changing climate’s effect on agriculture.
And that blizzard in the United States we just had has ruined our season's late harvest.

Indigenous farming practices failing as climate change disrupts seasons
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/10/climate-change-killing-thousands-of-years-indigenous-wisdom/
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Climate change is upending millions of people’s lives, yet few communities are seeing their crops and worldviews crumble quite like those that rely on indigenous weather forecasting. Dependent in many cases on millennia-old trial and error, as well as analyses of the landscape to gauge planting cycles, their fields are withering as the conditions on which the calendars are predicated change. Without that accumulated wisdom to fall back on—bird migrations, wind direction, stars, and more—farmers are feeling particularly defenseless just as other consequences of climate change complicate their lives.
We will all see our eternal verities go by the wayside as climate changes.

Japan’s Seaweed Industry Is in Jeopardy
https://www.ozy.com/acumen/japans-seaweed-industry-is-in-jeopardy/219660/
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That’s pushing up prices and threatening a cherished staple of the Japanese diet. The disruption offers an early hint of how environmental change will affect food production, forcing long-standing industries to adapt.
The problems are twofold: warming seas and not enough pollution. Climate change has led to a significant rise in water temperatures around Japan in recent decades. “We don’t know the causes for sure, but I think the biggest factor here is global warming,” says Koizumi.
Sushi is coming to an end in Japan. What else will soon come to an end?

'I'm standing here in the middle of climate change': How USDA is failing farmers
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/15/im-standing-here-in-the-middle-of-climate-change-how-usda-fails-farmers-043615
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But the Agriculture Department is doing little to help farmers adapt to what experts predict is the new norm: increasingly extreme weather across much of the U.S. The department, which has a hand in just about every aspect of the industry, from doling out loans to subsidizing crop insurance, spends just 0.3 percent of its $144 billion budget helping farmers adapt to climate change, whether it’s identifying the unique risks each region faces or helping producers rethink their practices so they’re better able to withstand extreme rain and periods of drought.
And this year is already the worst for extreme farming weather in the USA in decades, if not ever.

8
If you meant "lack" of alternatives, I well recognize it.

9
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 15, 2019, 07:27:29 PM »
I've been reading this, I have an IQ of almost 130, and I have no clue which side is right!

10
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: October 13, 2019, 09:19:47 PM »
Major hurricanes, though, are below average. This is what I would expect to most increase, so I am a bit surprised.

11
Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: October 13, 2019, 07:27:20 PM »
Hikers: Beware of Falling Trees
https://www.outsideonline.com/2402646/falling-trees-deaths-hiking-danger
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In California and Colorado, there are forests with more dead trees still standing, known as snags. An unprecedented 129 million trees in California have died from drought and bark beetles since 2010. All of those dead trees, in addition to the deadwood that has accumulated over a century of fire suppression, can lead to the kind of massive, out-of-control wildfires that have plagued California in recent years. These fires, of course, kill even more trees, and burn areas are particularly at risk for falling timber. In Colorado, there were 834 million snags as of 2017, or one in 14 trees—30 percent more than in 2010. Plus both the Pacific Crest and Colorado Trails go through extensive burn areas. The issue of dead timber is likely to worsen, due to the ongoing climate crisis.
“As the climate gets dryer and hotter, these problems are going to become even greater, at least until we change the way our forests are managed,” says Trimble.
Another consequence I did not think of.

Four Ways Alaska’s Unending Warming Impacts Everyone
https://therevelator.org/alaska-warming-impacts-everyone/
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Melting Sea Ice Accelerates Warming…and May Disrupt Global Weather Patterns
Increasing Wildfires Torch the “Legacy Carbon” of Northern Forests
Alaska’s Melting Glaciers Raise Global Sea Levels
Thawing Permafrost and the Carbon Bomb
What happens in Alaska does not stay in Alaska.

FEMA Bought 44,000 Flood-Prone Homes. They May Have to Buy Millions More
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-09/fema-may-have-to-buy-millions-of-homes-due-to-climate-crisis
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This 30 year-trickle is nothing compared with the great climate exodus to come. The potential number of homes that may be abandoned is staggering, said A.R. Siders, a co-author and assistant professor at University of Delaware’s Disaster Research Center. “There are 49 million housing units in at-risk areas on the U.S. coast, and over $1 trillion worth of infrastructure within 700 feet of the coast,” she said. The government isn't prepared to relocate even one-tenth of that, if it needed to, Siders said.
Maybe we can just put them in the deserts droughts will make?

Billions face food, water shortages over next 30 years as nature fails
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/10/billions-face-water-food-insecurity/#close
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A new model shows which areas of Earth will likely be hit the hardest by the changes caused by human activity, also revealing possible solutions.
That means basically everybody and their pets.

‘They should be allowed to cry’: Ecological disaster taking toll on scientists’ mental health
https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/ecological-disaster-mental-health-awareness-day-scientists-climate-change-grief-a9150266.html
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Leading researchers have published a letter saying many scientists experience “strong grief responses” to the ecological crisis and there are profound risks of ignoring this emotional trauma
When scientists start sobbing and weeping, you know it's time to panic.
 
Loons likely to disappear from Minnesota due to climate change, new report warns
http://www.startribune.com/loons-likely-to-disappear-from-minnesota-due-to-climate-change-new-report-warns/562874132/
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The black and white bird — whose haunting cries define Minnesota as much as lakes, snow and hot dish — is among 55 species likely to disappear from the state for the summer by 2080 if the world does nothing to cut greenhouse-gas emissions, according to a new report by the National Audubon Society, Survival by Degrees: 389 Bird Species on the Brink
How long until the humans vanish from Minnesota?


12
Antarctica / Re: Thwaites Glacier Discussion
« on: October 13, 2019, 06:59:05 PM »
Is there any order of magnitude how long a Thweites collapse would take?
A month, a year, a decade, a century?

13
The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: October 13, 2019, 04:07:55 AM »
Astronomy in a Low-Carbon Future
(A White Paper prepared for the Canadian Long Range Plan 2020)
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1910.01272.pdf

Abstract:
The global climate crisis poses new risks to humanity, and with them, new challenges to the practices of
professional astronomy. Avoiding the more catastrophic consequences of global warming by more than 1.5
degrees requires an immediate reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. According to the 2018 United Nations
Intergovernmental Panel report, this will necessitate a 45% reduction of emissions by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050. Efforts are required at all levels, from the individual to the governmental, and every discipline
must find ways to achieve these goals. This will be especially difficult for astronomy with its significant reliance
on conference and research travel, among other impacts. However, our long-range planning exercises provide
the means to coordinate our response on a variety of levels. We have the opportunity to lead by example, rising
to the challenge rather than reacting to external constraints.
We explore how astronomy can meet the challenge of a changing climate in clear and responsible ways, such
as how we set expectations (for ourselves, our institutions, and our granting agencies) around scientific travel,
the organization of conferences, and the design of our infrastructure. We also emphasize our role as reliable
communicators of scientific information on a problem that is both human and planetary in scale.

14
The rest / Re: Political theatre/wrestling
« on: October 12, 2019, 01:41:10 PM »
It astonishes me how Americans are completely blind to corruption. It's right there in front of them, yelling at them on a daily basis - but they just don't see it.

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck...
Well, I have seen it all my life, and I am an American. But it’s just like “So what else is new?”.

15
Well, it’s a little weird I’m wearing shorts and T-shirt in Twinsburg in mid-October.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: October 11, 2019, 01:16:33 PM »
The next question is, when will the Arctic be ice covered again? 102,019 AD?

17
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: October 11, 2019, 03:05:52 AM »
Thanks, vox_mundi:
I have seen that clip with so many subtitles, it's good to see what was really said!

18
The rest / Re: Cli Fi
« on: October 10, 2019, 07:41:35 PM »
How climate fiction is helping people understand the planet's uncertain future
https://www.mic.com/p/how-climate-fiction-is-helping-people-understand-the-planets-uncertain-future-18804402
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With the effects of climate change looming, it only makes sense that we'll need more ways to help us understand how our world is changing. We need tools that speak to us beyond the science textbook, which for some, just might require a deep dive into the world of fiction.
Some promising titles are mentioned in the article.

19
Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: October 10, 2019, 07:14:03 PM »
How Climate Change And Flash Flooding Is Affecting Communities Across The Country
https://www.npr.org/2019/10/08/768373866/how-climate-change-and-flash-flooding-is-affecting-communities-across-the-countr
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Climate change is driving deadly flash flooding across America. In one Maryland town, back-to-back flooding has forced residents to make huge decisions about how their community will adapt.
Can you swim in a raging flash flood? And even if you can, is your home waterproof?

Climate change will make California wildfires even worse
https://www.futurity.org/wildfires-climate-change-california-2179612/
Quote
The severity of wildfires in the Sierra Nevada region of California has been sensitive to changes in climate over the past 1,400 years, according to new research.
Forget water, are you and your home fireproof?

What Happens When Your Town Dries Up?
https://www.theatlantic.com/video/index/599635/dry-town-central-valley/
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“In bigger cities, we are often insulated from the direct impacts of climate change and how it affects our immediate environments,” Vaughan-Lee said. “We see hotter days, erratic weather, and, most recently, fires—but we aren’t as close to the front lines as many of these smaller towns and communities.”
Fortunately, the California drought has relented in recent months. But many believe this to be a short-lived respite. “The aquifer in the Central Valley is being depleted at a rate much higher than can be replenished by rains, so it’s only a matter of time before farming becomes unviable,” Vaughan-Lee said. “When this happens, many towns in the Central Valley may not survive.”
You may not drown in a drought, but you may starve in droughts grow enough to endanger food production.

Want to know what climate change feels like? Ask an Alaskan.
https://grist.org/article/want-to-know-what-climate-change-feels-like-ask-an-alaskan/
Quote
Adrienne Titus was heading back to her parents’ village on a sweltering afternoon in early July when she saw the dead salmon. She had been fishing upstream with her mother on the banks of the gorgeous Unalakleet River, which Chinook, pink, coho, and chum salmon travel up every year in order to spawn. Down closer to the village of Unalakleet, though, there were no signs of life on the water that day — just hundreds of soft bodies floating belly up.
Titus, a 39-year-old Iñupiat woman who lives in Fairbanks but grew up in Unalakleet, had never seen anything like it before. Neither had her mother, or any of the village elders that they asked in this small fishing community on the shores of the Norton Sound in the central Bering Sea.
“It was scary,” Titus said. “It put fear into us.”
Similar reports of dead pink salmon came in all across the Norton Sound that week as temperatures soared into the high 80s and low 90s during a statewide heatwave that “re-wrote the record books,” according to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. Fisheries biologists say that’s no coincidence: Warm water stresses the animals out, and temperatures above a certain threshold can kill them. In a statement issued on July 11, the Norton Sound Economic Development Corporation warned that the salmon die-offs appeared to be part of a “larger ecosystem-level shift” taking place due to rising temperatures.
Even if you don't eat fish, there are other things you eat that will be killed off. And even if not, people switching from fish will raise your food prices.

Climate Change Already Altering Ozark Forests Composition, Researcher Says
https://www.kuaf.com/post/climate-change-already-altering-ozark-forests-composition-researcher-says#stream/0
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University of Missouri-Columbia research associate professor ermeritus of forest health and mycology, Johann Bruhn, says climate change is already affecting Ozark forests. Bruhn travels with Citizen Climate Lobby Missouri co-coordinator, George Laur, educating the public. The USDA Forest Service has launched an online Climate Change Resource Center to provide guidance.
I love forests. I would hate to see them pass away.

Sea-level rise threatens 13 million Americans. Can FEMA help?
https://grist.org/article/sea-level-rise-threatens-13-million-americans-can-fema-help/
Quote
But in many respects Yang’s realism is spot on. If the world keeps burning fossil fuels as usual, between four and 13 million Americans will see their homes inundated by sea-level rise this century. In the future, managed retreat will become unavoidable.
This is one to four percent of all Americans. And America is probably the best situated country to handle Sea Level Rise.

Climate change is already harming Great Lakes region, Debbie Stabenow warns
https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2019/10/climate-change-is-already-harming-great-lakes-region-debbie-stabenow-warns.html
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A "climate crisis" is affecting Michigan’s economy, agriculture, public health and the Great Lakes, according to a new report.
This hits me where I live.
Literally.

One Thing You Can Do: Talk to Your Children About Climate Change
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/09/climate/children-anxiety-climate-newsletter-nyt.html
Quote
Climate change and related natural disasters can take a toll on mental health, according to a 2017 report by the American Psychological Association. That can include depression and anxiety. Children may be one of the hardest-hit groups.
I grew up during the Cold War. I remember having nuclear nightmares.

What will we lose? Tracking climate change in Yellowstone
https://www.bozemandailychronicle.com/news/environment/what-will-we-lose-tracking-climate-change-in-yellowstone/article_2cd9181a-4a05-527c-aaf3-3fbad9596cee.html
Quote
The Yellowstone scientist best known for his work on wolves is now leading a study of jays, warblers and sparrows, among other bird species. His researchers wake up obscenely early, leave the office by 3:30 a.m., and are in the woods listening for bird calls before the sun comes up.
The goal is to figure out what migratory and resident birds are living in old growth, subalpine forests consisting of spruce and fir trees — a forest type climate change could erase.
I went to Yellowstone National park twice. It is my favorite spot in the world. But even this is not safe.

How The Ala Wai Flood Project Illustrates The Challenge Of Adapting To Climate Change
https://www.hawaiipublicradio.org/post/how-ala-wai-flood-project-illustrates-challenge-adapting-climate-change#stream/0
Quote
But climate change-fueled storms are now at risk of overwhelming that system.
As the atmosphere warms, it is able to hold more water vapor. That means when storms form, they can deposit a higher volume of water in the form of rain. We saw this at work during the 2018 “rain bomb” floods in Hanalei and Aina Haina.
At just under 50 inches of rain, the Hanalei event set the current record for highest 24-hour rainfall total in the United States. It caused an estimated $125 million in damage.
Such an event would cause over $1 billion worth of destruction in the Ala Wai watershed — home to the state’s economic engine, Waikiki. That damage estimate comes from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the federal agency charged with managing the nation’s waterways.
A billion here, a billion there, pretty soon you are talking real money.

How climate change primed California’s power shutdown
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/10/climate-change-california-power-outage/
Quote
Frequent fires are part of California’s natural state. Many of its ecosystems, from the chaparral of Southern California to the northern pine forests, evolved to burn frequently. But since the 1980s, the size and ferocity of the fires that sweep across the state have trended upward: Fifteen of the 20 largest fires in California history have occurred since 2000. And since the 1970s, the amount of area burned in the state has increased by a factor of five.
Climate change’s fingerprint is evident in many of the fires, scientists say, primarily because hotter air means drier plants, which burn more readily
Over the past century, California has warmed by about 3 degrees Fahrenheit, more than the global average of about one degree Fahrenheit. Hotter air draws water out of plants and soils more efficiently than cool, leaving the trees, shrubs, and rolling grasslands of the state dry and primed to burn.

These State Birds May Be Forced Out of Their States as the World Warms
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/10/climate/state-birds-climate-change.html
Quote
New research shows that hundreds of North American birds are at risk of major habitat disruption from climate change.
I wonder if our state bird (Ohio Cardinal IIRC) is one of these?

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: October 10, 2019, 01:32:13 PM »
jdallen:
The choice was between Hillary and the Donald.
Hillary was actively promoting the murder of something like a million preborn babies a year in the United States. A baby is far more important than any furbish lousewort (or even a mongoose).
How could I not vote for him?

21
The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 09, 2019, 10:53:22 PM »
An adorable song from 1961:

Angel On My Shoulder - Shelby Flint

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: October 09, 2019, 06:08:21 PM »
I get your point, Glen, but I vote as if my soul depends on it.
That's why this pro-life voter voted for Kasich in the Primary but Trump in the election (and hated it)>

23
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: October 09, 2019, 12:34:17 AM »
Of course those superheatwaves mean more power for air conditioning which releases more greenhouse gas which heats up the atmosphere...

24
Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: October 08, 2019, 04:26:00 PM »
Climate change poses menace to wild bees
https://www.dailysabah.com/environment/2019/10/07/climate-change-poses-menace-to-wild-bees
Quote
With many wild bee species only able to survive within specific temperature ranges, global warming has placed the global bee population in peril.
"Global warming is believed to be a major driver of wild bee declines. Some wild bees can only survive in a narrow range of temperatures. As their habitats get warmer, the places where they can live grow smaller," said Philip Donkersley, senior research associate in entomology – the study of insects – at the U.K.'s Lancaster University.
I once read if all the bees died, humanity would be extinct in two years.

The Gulf Of Maine Is Warming, And Its Whales Are Disappearing
https://www.wgbh.org/news/local-news/2019/10/06/the-gulf-of-maine-is-warming-and-its-whales-are-disappearing
Quote
But lately, the whales have been harder and harder to find. Waters in the gulf have been warming, sending the whales' food supply searching for cooler temperatures. The whales have gone with them. Some days this summer, Parker says he didn't spot a single one. Business fell 20%, forcing him to cut his season short.
When they run out of cooler water maybe we can send the Starship Enterprise back in time to get some if Vger comes.

Diseases like West Nile, EEE and flesh-eating bacteria are flourishing due to climate change
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/10/05/climate-change-worsen-diseases-equine-encephalitis-west-nile-dengue-fever/3859382002/
Quote
An outbreak of a deadly and rare brain disease has killed at least 11 people in the United States so far this year. Scientists say the mosquito-borne illness, Eastern equine encephalitis, may be worse because of unseasonably warm temperatures. It’s one of just several diseases scientists worry are being affected by climate change.
Which tropical disease do you want to die from?

OPINION: Climate crisis: We are running out of time
http://www.thedutchharborfisherman.com/article/1941climate_crisis_we_are_running_out_of_time
Quote
Our Yupik people of Sivuqaq (our traditional name for St. Lawrence Island) are witnesses to the massive die-offs of seabirds, seals and whales. We have coexisted with these animals for thousands of years. These massive die-offs are a warning to us all and a threat to our culture and to the very existence of our Sivuqaq Yupik people of Alaska and the Arctic. We are overwhelmed with concern about the health harms associated with climate change, the loss of sea ice and melting permafrost and the mobilization of chemicals and plastics — these are all interconnected.
We are running out of time!
Actually, we have probably already run out of time.

Peruvian Glaciers Have Shrunk By 30 Percent Since 2000
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/peruvian-glaciers-have-shrunk-by-30-percent-since-2000
Quote
Nearly 30 percent of Peru’s glaciers have melted away since 2000, threatening a critical source of drinking water and irrigation for millions of people downstream, according to a new study published in the journal The Cryosphere. Overall, the country lost nearly 8 gigatons of ice from 2000 to 2016, with 170 glaciers — covering an area equivalent to 80,000 soccer fields — disappearing entirely.
If it's not one thing it is another. No part of the world will escape the consequences og AGW.

In the Mountains, Climate Change Is Disrupting Everything, from How Water Flows to When Plants Flower
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/07102019/mountain-climate-change-disruption-glaciers-water-ecosystems-agriculture-plants-food
Quote
With ominous orange-gray smoke clouds seething on the western horizon, it's easy to understand how Colorado's highest city and other mountain communities are directly threatened by global warming.
Mountain snowpack is shrinking and melting earlier in the spring. Warmer and longer summers dry out vegetation and increase the threat of wildfires in western mountain forests, where the fire season has lengthened by at least a month since 1979.
The growing wildfire risk is just part of an accelerating cycle of global warming impacts in the world's mountain regions, according to a new Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report that includes a section focused on mountains for the first time in more than 20 years.
We will be killed by the Orient Express method...a dozen different things working together to finish us off.

Tropical fish, microplastics and disappearing beaches: Climate change along the Central Coast
https://www.kcrw.com/news/shows/kcrw-features/tropical-fish-microplastic-and-disappearing-beaches-climate-change-along-the-central-coast
Quote
Butterfly Beach in Montecito is popular among beachgoers. But 30 years from now, there won’t be much of it left to enjoy.
“You're going to have more hours a day where the waves are just lapping up onto the seawall,” said Monique Myers, a California Sea Grant researcher studying the vulnerability of Santa Barbara’s coast.
Sea levels are expected to rise by about a foot by 2050, according to Myers.
And while coasts are getting too much water, interiors are in drought. It's like having to pee while dying of thirst.

What Climate Change Could Do to Cities' Power to Borrow Money
https://www.citylab.com/environment/2019/10/climate-change-could-make-borrowing-costlier-states-and-cities/599464/
Quote
Someday soon, analysts will determine that a city or county, or maybe a school district or utility, is so vulnerable to sea level rise, flooding, drought, or wildfire that it is an investment risk.
Already many cities are in a cash crisis situation. What happens if they become considered climate risks?

New England winters are on the decline due to climate change, study says
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2019/10/07/study-new-england-winters-are-decline-due-climate-change/vvlEmJw38WyF5fIpS7jABP/story.html
Quote
New Englanders may take cold, snowy winters for granted, but those are in jeopardy due to climate change — and that could affect everything from forest ecosystems to human health, researchers say.
Alexandra Contosta, assistant professor at the University of New Hampshire’s Earth Systems Research Center, and her team looked at 100 years of weather station data from forests in the northern United States and Canada, and found that milder winters are having widespread impacts, she said.
I don't like winter (as I don't like bees...see above) but I am smart enough o know we need them both.

How extreme sea level events are going to increase in Australia
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2019/oct/08/how-extreme-sea-level-events-are-going-to-increase-in-australia
Quote
A major new report predicts extreme sea level events that used to occur once every hundred years will occur at least once a year in many regions around the world by 2050.
The Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change looks at the impacts of climate change on glaciers and ice sheets, sea level rise, extreme sea level events and ocean ecosystems.
With immediate cuts to carbon emissions, scientists expect sea level rise of 30cm-60cm by 2100. Without cuts in carbon emissions, the ocean is expected to rise between 61cm and 110cm.
I will turn 92 in 2050. My uncle is older than that, so I might make it and see the first happen. If you are young enough, you might live to see 2100 and see the real disaster.

25
Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: October 08, 2019, 03:47:16 PM »
bbr2314:
Nuclear winter lasts on the scale of months to years.
Global Warming lasts on the scale of centuries to millennia.
Do we have to have a thousand nuclear wars to solve this problem permanently?

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 07, 2019, 06:46:05 PM »
 Does the "peak" of the freezing season have any impact on the "peak" of the subsequent melting season? If the ice expands record small this season, is it more likely to contract to record small next season?

27
The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: October 07, 2019, 06:34:47 PM »
We almost had a solar apocalypse in 2012, vox_mundi:
Near Miss: The Solar Superstorm of July 2012
https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/23jul_superstorm
Quote
July 23, 2014: If an asteroid big enough to knock modern civilization back to the 18th century appeared out of deep space and buzzed the Earth-Moon system, the near-miss would be instant worldwide headline news.
Two years ago, Earth experienced a close shave just as perilous, but most newspapers didn't mention it. The "impactor" was an extreme solar storm, the most powerful in as much as 150+ years.
"If it had hit, we would still be picking up the pieces," says Daniel Baker of the University of Colorado.

28
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: October 07, 2019, 01:31:41 AM »
Does the rest of the world have "frackable" shale to exploit, or is it mostly in the United States?

29
Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: October 06, 2019, 08:08:40 PM »

A monster grew in the Gulf of Mexico. Here’s why more may follow
https://www.jacksonville.com/news/20191005/monster-grew-in-gulf-of-mexico-heres-why-more-may-follow
Quote
Hurricane Michael grew to Category 5 prowess in an overly warm Gulf of Mexico that likely will continue to heat with climate change.
In the record-hot Florida fall of 2018, Hurricane Michael was rabid with hidden energy absorbed from a Gulf of Mexico 4 to 6 degrees warmer than normal
And the sea level in the Gulf of Mexico is rising. And the land is sinking. Get ready to move!

This depressing map of the Arctic lets you track 40 years of melting sea ice
https://www.fastcompany.com/90412968/this-depressing-map-of-the-arctic-lets-you-track-40-years-of-melting-sea-ice
Quote
As the world reckons with a climate in crisis, marching in the streets, and demanding world leaders and corporate honchos act to get greenhouse-gas emissions under control, oceans are storing the excess heat made by humankind’s bad choices. As the ocean warms, temperatures under the world’s ice sheets heat up. And as everyone who has ever waited too long to chug a slushy knows, when ice gets warm, it melts. That includes some of the older ice that one NASA researcher says serves as an “insurance policy” for the rest of the ice pack.
Will we live to see this forum's main topic become just a memory?


30
Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: October 04, 2019, 04:40:23 PM »
‘Prepare now or pay later’: Financial regulators must account for climate change risk to corporate bottom lines, Citigroup says
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/02/financial-regulators-climate-change-risk-to-corporate-bottom-lines.html
Quote
Financial regulators must transform how they account for the economic risks of climate change, Citigroup said in a new report Wednesday.
The report on climate risk comes shortly after a slew of extreme weather events across the world.
Most recently, Hurricane Dorian stalled over and decimated the Bahamas, and raging wildfires have destroyed a large swath of Amazon and Bolivian rainforests.
For major companies across the world, trillions of dollars are at stake as climate change threatens to disrupt their supply chains.
A trillion here, a trillion there, and pretty soon you are talking real money.

Amazon wildfires causing spike in children's breathing problems
https://www.channel3000.com/health/amazon-wildfires-causing-spike-in-childrens-breathing-problems/1128589519
Quote
Wildfires raging in the Amazon rainforest are driving a spike in breathing problems and hospitalizations among children in Brazil, according to a new report.
The fires, which have now been burning for months, are posing "a major risk to the health of the population," said the report, published Wednesday by public health research institute Oswaldo Cruz Foundation
My cousin in Colorado commented how bad the air was there from the fires, and Colorado doesn't hold a candle to Brazil.

Heartbreaking photos show emaciated grizzly bears wandering through the Canadian wilderness after freak salmon shortage caused by warming waters and open fish farming - just one month before they're supposed to go into hibernation
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7532501/Heartbreaking-photos-emaciated-grizzly-bears-Canada-salmon-shortage.html
Quote
Shocking photos of an emaciated mother grizzly bear and her two starving cubs have gone viral
Photographer Rolf Hicker snapped the animals searching for food on the Knight Inlet in British Columbia
He said he saw the bears several times, desperately searching for food amid a salmon shortage
Commercial fishermen in British Columbia have called this year the worst salmon season in nearly 50 years
A report by Fisheries and Oceans Canada said that climate change is negatively impacting the fish stocks
Each little hole in the ecoweb weakens the natural environment a little more. Eventually it will collapse.

Record Heat Thrusts Hawaii Corals Into ‘New Era’ Of Bleaching
https://www.civilbeat.org/2019/10/record-heat-thrusts-hawaii-corals-into-new-era-of-bleaching/
Quote
The reefs have never had to endure such conditions. Marine scientists remain optimistic but warn that time is running out for society to step up.
Corals survived the Permian Extinction. Will they survive the Holocene Extinction?

Tracking the Atlantic Ocean's Inland Creep in Miami-Dade County
https://www.circleofblue.org/2019/world/tracking-the-atlantic-oceans-inland-creep-in-miami-dade-county/
Quote
Rising seas are a visible threat to coastal areas. But the danger above is mirrored below in the form of rising salt concentrations in many coastal aquifers. In Miami-Dade County, the USGS study mapped the boundary where salt water meets the base of the Biscayne. Because it is less dense, fresh water sits on top of the saltwater wedge, which is thickest near the coast and thinner inland
Will it be "Water, water, everywhere, and nary a drop to drink?

Radical warming in Siberia leaves millions on unstable ground
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/climate-environment/climate-change-siberia/
Quote
A Washington Post analysis found that the region near the town of Zyryanka, in an enormous wedge of eastern Siberia called Yakutia, has warmed by more than 3 degrees Celsius since preindustrial times — roughly triple the global average.
The permafrost that once sustained farming — and upon which villages and cities are built — is in the midst of a great thaw, blanketing the region with swamps, lakes and odd bubbles of earth that render the land virtually useless.
You would think Siberia would welcome warmer weather, but this shows the answer is "Nope!"

31
I wish it weren't so, but Sanders really is America's best hope for positive change. If he isn't elected president, the country will go nowhere (except probably further downhill).
If he doesn’t get the nomination do you think he could run as an Independent?

32
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: October 04, 2019, 01:55:54 PM »
Well, if Trump is convicted the Right half of the country will go apeshit. If he is acquitted theLeft half of the country will go apeshit.

33
Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: October 03, 2019, 10:29:20 PM »
I posted a thread on this, but in case you ignored it it would also fit here.
If you expect a collapse, but for a fragment of humanity to survive, donate a test to the Memory of Mankind:
https://www.memory-of-mankind.com/
Quote
The most durable data carriers (in the form of ceramic tablets), stored deep in the oldest salt mine in the world will carry our stories hundreds of thousand of years into the future.

Everyone can participate within drawing this portrait of our era: You can contribute a personal story, your favorite poem, or newspaper articles which describe our problems, visions or our daily life.

To give everyone on the globe the chance (regardless of origin or income) to contribute to MOM, the storing of texts in this archive is free of charge.

You can also support MOM with funds or purchase your personal tablet with texts and images combined (and receive a duplicate which you can pass on to your own offspring!)

34
The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: October 03, 2019, 08:50:33 PM »
Sorry, kassy.
How do I get to post #159 (or whatever #)?
Also, could you translate your signature?

35
The rest / Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« on: October 03, 2019, 08:23:46 PM »
He writes about a lot of stuff.
Actually, his obsession is occultism...he is actually an Archdruid in a neoPagan Church. Of course, this does not mean that he is either right or wrong on anything else by itself, any more than my Catholicism means I am right/wrong about astronomy or whatever.
His coverage of PO and AGW is mostly about how the great mass of "Joe Publics" don't change their fundamental beliefs about things, no matter how much evidence they encounter.

36
Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: October 03, 2019, 07:39:20 PM »
In Saratoga Springs, experts talk climate change impacts on invasive species
https://www.timesunion.com/news/article/In-Saratoga-Springs-experts-talk-climate-change-14486536.php
Quote
“Longer growing seasons are virtually certain,” said Bethany Bradley, an associate professor of ecology at the University of Massachusetts. With longer seasons due to earlier springs, almost all plants will do better. And  more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere can also promote plant growth. But invasive species – plants, insects or animals — are so-named in part because of their ability to out-compete other species.
Good news/Bad news joke:
Good news - in the long run invasive species are good for biodiversity.
Bad news - the long run is about ten million years.

Soaring eagle films crumbling Alpine glaciers as Earth warms
https://www.kansascity.com/news/nation-world/article235715672.html
Quote
Disintegrating permafrost, which now glues a glacier’s rocks together, can cause them to crumble with potentially devastating consequences.
Victor’s flight comes as Italian authorities are scrambling to respond to fears that part of a large Italian glacier near Mont Blanc is on the verge of collapsing. They’ve warned that falling ice could endanger homes and people in the Val Ferret area, a popular hiking area.
At the rate the planet is warming, it’s too late to save the Alps’ glaciers, Freedom Conservation Managing Director Ronald Menzel said. But it’s not too late to fight climate change more broadly. He hopes Victor’s popularity will spur viewers into action.
There are no glaciers within a couple thousand miles of me. Someday there may be none anywhere.

Climate change is coming for our toilets. Here’s how we can stop it.
https://grist.org/article/climate-change-is-coming-for-our-toilets-heres-how-we-can-stop-it/
Quote
While the report is not specifically about your bathroom, per se, it shows how a stealthy threat — sea-level rise — could make it more difficult for people with septic systems to flush their toilets. A brief primer on septic systems, which are common in rural areas: The stuff in your toilet goes into an underground tank, where it breaks down (I’m gagging) and gets drained out into a leach field (gross) that’s at least 20 feet from your house. In order to function properly, those drainage fields have to be relatively dry.
My late uncle had a septic tank and had all kinds of problems with it even without sea level rise (he lived in Ohio like me). This is one problem I would not want.

STORM FORCE Storm Lorenzo – Climate change expert’s grim warning for Ireland as he predicts Storm Lorenzo is ‘sign of things to come’
https://www.thesun.ie/news/4615021/irish-weather-forecast-storm-lorenzo-climate-change-warning/
Quote
Dr O'Dwyer said that as the earth heats up as a result of climate change, there is more moisture in the atmosphere than cooler air - which is then available to storm systems.
He told the Irish Sun: "As the earth warms as a result of manmade climate change, the atmosphere can contain more moisture than cooler air.
"This extra moisture is available to storm systems, resulting in heavier rainfall. Climate projections suggest an increase in the occurrence of hurricanes into the future."
And he cautioned that Ireland is not ready to feel the force of such weather events.
284 years passed between the Great Storms of 1703 and 1987. How long till the next one?

n Houston, a Rash of Storms Tests the Limits of Coping With Climate Change
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/02/climate/hurricane-adaptation-houston.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fclimate
Quote
Houston’s challenge reflects the dilemma facing cities everywhere: As the climate changes, disasters aren’t just becoming more severe, but also more frequent. So even as the amount of damage increases, governments and residents have less time to repair before the next storm hits. And structural changes that might reduce cities’ exposure require years or decades to complete.
And by the time those adaptations are installed, the effects have grown even greater still.

Washington's coastal tribes are working to escape rising sea levels. A bill in D.C. could help
https://crosscut.com/2019/10/washingtons-coastal-tribes-are-working-escape-rising-sea-levels-bill-dc-could-help
Quote
For the Native tribes that have historically lived along Washington’s Pacific coast, the threat of rising waters is real and imminent. As a result, many must grapple with the forced relocation of entire villages to higher ground before their homes are submerged.
D.C. might be able to pay for thousands of Indians to move. Will they be able to pay for millions of people?


37
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: October 03, 2019, 06:02:43 PM »
I know it has nothing to do with reality, but if, before I was born, God had told me that Industrial Civilization would collapse, I would ask to be born such that I would die in the collapse in my great old age.
I was born March 5, 1958.

38
The rest / Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« on: October 03, 2019, 05:53:24 PM »
He implied he will soon post on AGW. If so, I will link.

39
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 02, 2019, 11:37:10 PM »
My GPS once insisted that the restaurant I was supposed to meet someone at was in a vacant field.
Damn near had an accident trying to get back on the highway.

40
The rest / Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« on: October 02, 2019, 11:30:39 PM »
This blogger was one of my favorites back in my Peak Oil days. A look back at peak oil and a look ahead:
https://www.ecosophia.net/waiting-for-the-next-panic/
Quote
Does that mean that the long-awaited energy transition will finally happen then, or that the global economy will get around to collapsing at last? No, we’ve been here often enough now that it’s not at all hard to predict what will happen. The price of oil will spike to jawdropping levels, dealing a body blow to the world’s economies; then demand destruction will cut in, and the sky-high oil price will make it economical for some other low-grade, high-cost oil source to be brought online and bring prices back down again. (My guess is that other countries that have substantial shale oil deposits, and sensibly held off on developing them until the US ran through its tight oil reserves, will jump on the fracking bandwagon in turn.)
The price of oil will go down, though never as low as it was before the spike, and yet another round of activists will have to go running after whatever the next fashionable cause du jour happens to be. Meanwhile, without more than a few of us noticing, the industrial world will have taken another step down that prolonged process of decline I’ve named the Long Descent.
In the meantime, while we wait for the next panic to hit, there’s a good deal that can be done, and there’ll be even more to do once the price of oil starts to climb in earnest. Before we can talk about that, though, we need to discuss what’s going on with the global climate…and what’s going to happen when the current fad for climate change activism finishes jumping the shark.

41
The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 02, 2019, 07:52:56 PM »
Here is another one that just barely made the top 40:

Naturally Stoned The Avant-Garde

42
Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: October 02, 2019, 06:41:47 PM »
AGW Consequences October 2

Science data struggles to keep up with climate change
https://www.thecordovatimes.com/2019/10/01/science-data-struggles-to-keep-up-with-climate-change/
Quote
To assess the pace of change in cumulative human impacts (CHI) they calculated and mapped the cumulative impact of 14 stressors related to human activities, which included climate change, fishing and land-based pressures, on 12 marine ecosystems globally for each of 11 years spanning 2003 to 2013. The stressors included ocean acidification, sea surface temperature, sea level rise, shipping, nutrient pollution, organic pollution, direct human, light pollution, five types of commercial fishing and artisanal fishing.
Halpern and Frazer said they found that 59 percent of the ocean is experiencing significantly increasing cumulative impact, in particularly from climate change, but also from fishing, land- based pollution and shipping.
According to Frazier “increasing greenhouse gas emissions have resulted in large increases in ocean temperature which impact many ocean habitats and animals.”
AGW is comparable to the other 13 stressors combined.

Climate change means the government faces more costs from natural disasters. If only it admitted it.
https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/climate-change-means-government-faces-more-costs-natural-disasters-if-ncna1059901
Quote
Hurricanes might not be becoming more frequent, but they are certainly becoming more intense, and they are doing so in ways consistent with the predicted impacts of climate change. We only need to look as far as the Caribbean to observe this in the extraordinary damage caused by Hurricane Dorian this September — flooded houses, destroyed cars and swamped infrastructure that caused scores of deaths.
Human settlements are getting more vulnerable to those hazards as the climate changes around them. Climate change can speed erosion and change shorelines and vegetation patterns, reducing natural barriers and making it harder to mitigate the devastation.
Don't worry. The US government is only twenty-odd trillion dollars in debt, plus a hundred plus trillion in unfunded liabilities. :D

Climate Change Could Lead to More Conflict Between Species as They Adapt and Move, Increasing Extinctions
https://www.newsweek.com/climate-change-conflict-species-adapt-move-1462402
Quote
Climate change poses an existential threat to many animal species on the planet. Now, research suggests that species are going to come into conflict with one another as they genetically adapt or migrate to more suitable habitats.
I know mongooses are at war with snakes, but now they will be at war with everything?

As tick-borne illness spreads across the U.S., so does grassroots education to prevent it
https://ensia.com/articles/as-tick-borne-illness-spreads-across-the-u-s-so-does-grassroots-education-to-prevent-it/
Quote
According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), climate change is likely increasing the risk of Lyme disease. Rising temperatures have led to an expansion in tick ranges and have allowed more regions to become suitable for tick proliferation. Additionally, shorter winters can increase the portion of the year during which ticks are active and able to transmit Lyme disease.
The description of LD in the article sounds nasty. I do not want to catch it!

The strange, uncertain fate of Alaska’s biggest wild salmon habitat
https://thefern.org/2019/10/the-strange-uncertain-fate-of-alaskas-biggest-wild-salmon-habitat/
Quote
For her generation of fishermen, investing here is more of a gamble than ever. Twin threats hang over this place where many of America’s salmon dinners come from: a rapidly warming climate, which has already scrambled the pattern of the seasons across vast swaths of Alaska, and Pebble Mine, a proposed open pit mine at the bay’s headwaters, which has been given new life by Donald Trump’s administration. Many who live and fish here, including Hoover, worry that once the mine is built, pollution is inevitable and that together these two forces could destroy this rare, pristine ecosystem, threatening salmon, communities, and whole ways of life.
I used to get Salmon at lunch at the Mandarin Seafood Buffet. Now they don't offer it then...too expensive. Is this why?

43
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: October 02, 2019, 06:00:56 PM »
Well, it sure was hot as a place that rhymes with smell here in Twinsburg yesterday.

44
Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: October 01, 2019, 07:43:43 PM »
AGW Consequences for October 1

Climate Change Is Decimating Mojave Desert Birds
https://laist.com/2019/09/30/climate-change-mojave-desert-birds-death-heat-water.php
Quote
We found out last year that hotter, drier weather due to climate change is likely causing bird populations in the Mojave Desert to collapse at an alarming rate. A new study published today suggests one big reason why: Birds are having a hard time staying hydrated, which means they're having a hard time staying cool.
Over the past century, temperatures in the Mojave Desert have risen about 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit, while precipitation has declined in some parts. That's coincided with a roughly 40 percent decrease in the number of bird species documented there.
I would have expected the Mojave to have warmed less than that, since it would not be subject to Arctic Amplification

U.S. taxpayers are at risk for homes threatened by climate change
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/banks-shift-mortgages-on-disaster-prone-properties-to-taxpayers-study-shows/
Quote
Banks are selling mortgages on homes in coastal areas around the U.S. that are vulnerable to natural disasters to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, a study finds.
That could leave taxpayers footing the bill because the two government-sponsored enterprises buy the mortgages without adequately accounting for the heightened property risks.
"Climate change could lead to a 'Big Short' kind of crisis," one of the study's authors said.
Are you an American taxpayer? If in another nation, how does your country "do it"?

CLIMATE CHANGE MAY TAKE AWAY YOUR ABILITY TO FLUSH THE TOILET
https://www.newsweek.com/climate-change-stop-flushing-toilets-1462121
Quote
A new United Nations report states that rising sea levels could render as many as 60 million toilets inoperable in the United States alone, as traditional septic systems are threatened by increased groundwater.
About 1 in 5 American households rely on septic systems to handle their toilet waste, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. These systems work by draining flushed toilets into an underground tank, where bacteria breaks it down into water and solid sludge. That water moves through an outflow tube into a drainage field.
However, as sea levels rise, those drainage fields are becoming saturated, preventing them from absorbing liquid from septic tanks. In addition, erosion removes the necessary soft earth to filter out pollutants, resulting in public health hazards and groundwater contamination.
I never thought toilet flushing would be a problem.
I have nightmares about not being able to flush the toilet!

At a Cambodian Lake, a Climate Crisis Unfolds
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/30/opinion/tonle-sap-cambodia-climate.html
Quote
A trifecta of climate change, hydropower dams and illegal fishing are threatening the Tonle Sap, and the people who rely on its fish.
Illegal fishing might yield to more law enforcement, and maybe dams can be prevented by civil action, but AGW is a toughie.

Climate Change Threatens the World’s Fisheries, Food Billions of People Rely On
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/27092019/ocean-fish-diet-climate-change-impact-food-ipcc-report-cryosphere
Quote
Fisheries are often overlooked when researchers and policymakers focus on land-based agriculture as the primary food source for a growing global population, yet fish are an essential protein source for 3.2 billion people and provide 17 percent of the world's animal protein. They're especially important in some developing tropical countries that rely on fish for 70 percent of their nutrition.
"The changes in the oceans will have direct impacts on people who are depending on these systems for food," said William Cheung, a professor from the University of British Columbia and a lead author of the report's chapter covering fisheries.
The scientists determined that the sustainable fish catch—the amount of fish that can be caught without decimating populations—could drop by as much as a quarter by the end of the century if greenhouse gas emissions continue on their current trajectory.
Of course those developing countries in the Tropics have some of the fastest growth rates of anyplace on Earth.

Calm Before the Storm
https://newrepublic.com/article/154942/america-nuclear-power-plants-climate-change-risk-fukushima
Quote
The chance of a nuclear accident releasing significant radioactivity and harming the public is “very small,” according to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the federal agency whose mission is, in part, “to provide reasonable assurance of adequate protection of public health and safety.” But as sea levels rise, a flawed understanding of climate science and the outsize influence that the U.S. nuclear industry exerts on the NRC have converged, increasing the risk of disastrous flood-induced accidents at coastal nuclear power plants around the United States.
How about a coastal Chernobyl at your favorite seaside site?


'We know they aren't feeding': fears for polar bears over shrinking Arctic ice
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/29/polar-bears-arctic-sea-ice-environment
Quote
The loss of Arctic ice from glaciers, polar land and sea is increasing faster than many scientists expected, as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) report on oceans and the cryosphere said this week.
That’s bad news for polar bear populations, a top expert involved in field studies on the endangered animals has told the Guardian.
This year’s annual minimum of the Arctic sea ice tied with the second-lowest extent on record, a mere 1.6m sq miles, and badly affected polar bear populations that live and hunt on the north slope of Alaska, plus those that live on the ice floes in the Bering Sea.
How did polar bears survive the Eemian? Or hadn't they evolved yet? Or was the Eemian still filled with Arctic Ice?

Yellow Fever And Malaria In The US? With Climate Crisis, It's Within The Realm Of Possibility
https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2019/09/30/infectious-disease-climate-change
Quote
"For instance, mosquitoes are animals that really depend on water in order to breed. And they also tend to be more active at higher temperatures. So as we see rising temperatures, increased rainfall worldwide, we see an increase in the range and number of mosquitoes. For example, Aedes species mosquitoes, which spread diseases like dengue, Zika virus, chikungunya, West Nile virus; currently about 50% of the world population is susceptible to being bitten by those mosquitoes. We expect that to increase as the climate continues to warm."
I wonder if I will die of one of these "tropical" diseases?

Climate change is changing the flavor of French wine
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/09/wine-harvest-dates-earlier-climate-change/
Quote
Now, a nearly 700-year-long record of harvest dates from the town of Beaune, in Burgundy, shows that early harvest dates like the one from 1540 are now par for the course, thanks to climate change. Scientists and historians stitched together a record of grape harvest dates going back to 1354. They found that air temperatures have warmed so much—and especially in the last 30 years—that grapes are now harvested almost two weeks before their historical norm.
“We can clearly see the reaction of the grapes to the rise in temperature,” says Thomas Labbé, an historian at the University of Leipzig.
And that reaction is changing the wine itself.
I only drink wine at Communion, but I still don't want it to change.

Australia’s vast carbon sink releasing millions of tonnes of CO2 back into atmosphere
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/01/australias-vast-carbon-sink-releasing-millions-of-tonnes-of-co2-back-into-atmosphere
Quote
Serrano said: “When these ecosystems are damaged by storms, heatwaves, dredging or other human development, the carbon dioxide stored in their biomass and soils beneath them can make its way back into the environment, contributing to climate change.
“Globally, vegetated coastal ecosystems are being lost twice as fast as tropical rainforests despite covering a fraction of the area.”
Just one more feedback of many...

The Displaced: I lost my house to climate change
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-49859408/the-displaced-i-lost-my-house-to-climate-change
Quote
Vietnam is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change - we meet the families on the front lines.
How likely are you to lose your home to AGW?

45
Science / Re: Has climate sensitivity been under-estimated?
« on: October 01, 2019, 04:15:57 PM »
the paleosens work from 2012 also showed this non-linearity of ECS  Though they simply checked over the last 800,000 years. see:  https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?topic=1053.1550

There is no compelling reason for ECS to be linear.  As in most chemical and physical equilibria, it should decrease with increasing concentrations.

But doesn't ECS take that into account? Being the change of a doubling of CO2, instead of an addition of N trillion tons. Each increment will then be larger.

46
Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: September 30, 2019, 06:58:54 PM »
New Zealand tourism sees threat if climate change deters long-haul flyers
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/116193329/climate-change-threat-for-tourism-sparks-research-on-impact
Quote
A report on New Zealand's tourism industry says concerns about carbon emissions pose a threat to long haul travel and the industry's future.
A Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE) report on Tourism New Zealand (TNZ) released on Monday highlighted the challenges it will face.
They include softening international growth, fierce competition for customers, and the risk of carbon emissions affecting travel choices, particularly for long haul trips.
More jobs lost, and less chance to travel. Not a good future.

RPT-Drought-hit Australian towns prepare for 'unimaginable' water crisis
https://www.reuters.com/article/australia-drought/rpt-drought-hit-australian-towns-prepare-for-unimaginable-water-crisis-idUSL3N26K0DC
Quote
* Some regional Australian towns have trucked in drinking water
* Several towns forecast to hit ‘day zero’ next year
* The drought is party driven by warmer sea and air temperatures
* Farm production is declining, hurting Australia’s economy
I live in the Great Lakes area, so drought is not a problem here. Even in 1988, Maple Heights had fireworks by firehosing the launch field. But not everybody is so lucky.

In Dorian's wake, Bahamas appeals for climate action at UN
https://www.wxyz.com/news/political/national/in-dorians-wake-bahamas-appeals-for-climate-action-at-un
Quote
As the Bahamas strives to recover from Hurricane Dorian, Prime Minister Hubert Minnis appealed to world leaders Friday to tackle climate change — and encouraged travelers to visit to help the country rebuild.
Of course that would require more tourism, exacerbating global warming and thus making more major hurricanes...

Ticks and Climate Change Impact on Moose
https://www.wagmtv.com/content/news/Ticks-and-Climate-Change-Impact-on-Moose-561707531.html
Quote
The devastating toll of ticks on New England's moose herd has caused the region's population to shrink, and experts worry it could get worse with climate change. The northern New England states are home to thousands of moose, but the herd has dwindled in the last decade, in part because of the winter ticks.
Don't ticks also spread disease to humans?

Climate Risk in the Housing Market Has Echoes of Subprime Crisis, Study Finds
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/27/climate/mortgage-climate-risk.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fclimate
Quote
Banks are shielding themselves from climate change at taxpayers’ expense by shifting riskier mortgages — such as those in coastal areas — off their books and over to the federal government, new research suggests.
After hurricanes, mortgage lenders offload more of their vulnerable loans to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, whose rules prevent them from saying no. Next financial crisis?

47
Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: September 30, 2019, 06:37:28 PM »
<snip>
• New tech is more expensive than old tech.

Let's go to old tech then. Tech from before FF. Emissions problem solved. I'm serious :) .

Of course the world population was about 10% of the present value then.
Want to bet you will be one of the surviving 10%?

48
The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: September 30, 2019, 05:30:00 PM »
Maybe this is who will save us from global warming?
http://www.housepetscomic.com/comic/2019/09/30/circle-of-life/
Marion is a 17 year old boy who was mysteriously transformed into a female squirrel.
In the previous strip he fell into a toilet.

49
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: September 30, 2019, 04:50:15 PM »
With my posting of gloomy "Consequence" links, here is an optimistic one on food:
Ten Times Cheaper But Better Food is Going to Radically Change Your World
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2019/09/ten-times-cheaper-but-better-food-is-going-to-radically-change-your-world.html
Quote
* This is taking processes from a $660+ billion beer industry and applying it to agriculture
* This transforms land, food, environment, our health and the economy
* Historical examples of less precise biology were already hugely impactful. Insulin was created with similar processes and the vitamin industry uses less precise version of these processes.
* First food products already have multi-billion companies
* We are domesticating micro and macro-organisms.
This is by a cornucopian blogger, but sometimes they are right, at least to an extent.

50
The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: September 30, 2019, 04:38:42 PM »
How "uncontacted" are those uncontacted humans? I hear a lot of them have had contact and decided "Thanks but no thanks!".

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