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Messages - Tom_Mazanec

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Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 25, 2020, 11:13:47 PM »
And the lack of leadership is clearly another world pandemic. The minister asks the citizens stay in the country for vacation then goes personally to Crete.
So USA is not exceptional. I believe Brazil may be worse than the USA from what I've read here. And other countries.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 25, 2020, 03:35:41 PM »

Saturday In The Park - Chicago

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 25, 2020, 01:04:13 PM »

De De Dinah - Frankie Avalon

The politics / Re: The Alt Right
« on: October 25, 2020, 12:48:18 AM »
Just saw a TV show in which a character asks “Has any great social evil ever been ended without violence?”
I am glad I was not the character that question was posed to.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 24, 2020, 07:49:21 PM »

Fortunate Son - Creedence Clearwater Revival

Asia suffering 'worst recession in living memory'
Growth forecasts for the region have been downgraded again, this time from -1.6% to -2.2% for this year.

However, the glimmer of hope is for a bounceback of almost 7% next year, according to the IMF.

China will play a big part in the region's growth next year, with its latest data showing continued recovery from the downturn caused by the virus.

But there are still many black clouds on the horizon as countries, including India, the Philippines and Malaysia, continue to battle with Covid-19 infections.

ECB Seen Preparing More Aid as Virus Spread Derails Economy
Surging coronavirus infections and renewed lockdowns will prompt the European Central Bank to step up monetary stimulus later this year, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Respondents predict 500 billion euros ($590 billion) will be added to the 1.35 trillion-euro pandemic bond-buying program, with most anticipating action in December. The Governing Council will probably keep policy unchanged when it meets on Thursday to discuss the economic damage, though some analysts expect President Christine Lagarde to signal that more support is on the way.

With governments forced to restrict travel, close restaurants and impose curfews to contain the pandemic, the euro area’s recovery is already flagging, raising the specter of a double-dip recession. Lagarde has said the pickup in infections came sooner than expected, presenting a clear risk to the economic outlook.

Double Dip Recession Tweets of the Day
The Covid recession isn't even over yet, but there is already talk of a double dip coming.
Numerous tweets.

Long-term unemployment spikes for millions of Americans. Aid that’s kept them afloat may end soon
It’s been more than seven months since the coronavirus pandemic hit, leading to sweeping shelter in place orders in March that put millions of Americans out of work. While some of those laid off due to shutdowns have been able to return to their jobs, permanent unemployment has increased.

In September, long-term unemployment, or those that have been out of work for 27 weeks or more, jumped to 2.4 million, the highest thus far in the coronavirus pandemic-induced recession, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nearly 800,000 out of work Americans moved into the long-term unemployed category from August to September, the largest month-over-month increase ever, according to Michele Evermore, senior policy analyst at the National Employment Law Project.

At the same time, the number of Americans out of work for 15 weeks to 26 weeks was nearly 5 million in September.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 24, 2020, 06:17:43 PM »

Two Silhouettes (on the shade) ::: Hermans Hermits

Well, this Oct 23 is 80º F in Twinsburg, which is kinda weird.

The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: October 23, 2020, 04:12:40 PM »
Impressive Water Purifcation System Found at Ancient Maya City
More than 2,000 years ago in the ancient city of Tikal in northern Guatemala, Maya people apparently utilized a mineral called zeolite to purify their drinking water. The discovery, published in the journal Scientific Reports by anthropologists from the University of Cincinnati, represents the oldest known example of water purification in the Western Hemisphere.

The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: October 23, 2020, 04:07:44 PM »
Of course it is possible that Biden may be the beneficiary of Trump's Executive Order.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 23, 2020, 04:06:12 PM »
Here are a couple Friday you-like-not-me devoted to the memory of summer now past:

Summer Breeze - Seals & Croft 1972

Hot Fun In The Summertime - Sly and the Family Stone 1969

Over half Europe's small firms fear for survival, survey finds
LONDON (Reuters) - Over half the small and medium-sized companies which together provide jobs for two-thirds of European workers fear for their survival in the coming 12 months, according to a survey released by management consultancy McKinsey on Thursday.

The real cause of the coronavirus recession
Iowa has never had a statewide mask mandate, and it lifted its few restrictions earlier than a lot of other states. But economic recovery has been slow, suggesting that this downturn is due more to individual choices than the lockdowns put in place by blue states, as some Republicans have suggested. Today, we’ll talk about a case study around Iowa in The New York Times. Plus: Elon Musk, infosec and Kiss.

RELEASE: CAP Brief Finds This Is the First Recession Where Women Have Lost More Jobs Than Men
Washington, D.C. — A new issue brief from the Center for American Progress finds that the coronavirus recession is the first recession since the advent of modern U.S. employment statistics for women in which women have lost more jobs than men, leading some to refer to this recession as a “she-cession.” While in every previous recession on record, women lost less than one job for every job that men lost, between February and April, women lost more than 12.1 million jobs while men lost just more than 10 million. There is also evidence that many of these job losses will be long-lasting. The last time women’s employment-to-population ratio was this low was in 1986. Following that low, it took nearly a decade for women’s employment rates to reach pre-recession levels.

Women of color have lost their jobs at higher rates than their white counterparts. Black women’s employment fell 18.2 percent from its peak compared with 16.7 percent for white women. Asian American women have gone from having the lowest unemployment rate in February at 3 percent—tied with white women—to 15.9 percent at peak unemployment. Latina women have also experienced dramatic employment and labor force declines, with job losses out of phase with the rest of the recovery.

The Recession Is Over, But Don't Get Too Excited
With record economic growth and hiring this summer, we may soon learn that the recession is already technically over.

But the end of the recession doesn’t mean the economy has recovered, only that the worst is behind us in terms of lost economic output, income, and jobs.

Expect the recovery in GDP to take another year, while regaining the lost jobs to take closer to two years. Getting back to the former trajectory will take longer still.

Investors should be mindful that the path forward will be slow and uneven, even after the recession is declared to be over.

COVID-19 crisis to speed up depletion of Social Security
US retirement and disability trust funds could run dry as early as 2029 and 2023, respectively, a bipartisan research group warns.
I'm on disability :o

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 23, 2020, 12:22:30 PM »
Looking at these charts, we are not just at #1, we are champions by a yuuuuge margin. There is a yawning gap between where we are and what used to be the record. This is scary.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 22, 2020, 07:32:56 PM »

WE Gotta Get Out of This Place - Animals

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 22, 2020, 05:25:08 PM »
Ten more Twinsburg students positive in Oct 12 week.

How the coronavirus is exacerbating global inequality, hunger
Whereas previous recessions were fairly even in terms of who was affected, in this recession, the top 25% has bounced back completely, while the bottom 2% has been smacked hard. The reason is simple: working from home. Bankers, lawyers, accountants, academics, and scores of other white collar workers, have been able to work remotely. The work environment may have changed, but they got to keep their jobs. Those employed in restaurants, hotels, shopping malls, etc. haven’t been so lucky. Their jobs have disappeared, and won’t be coming back anytime soon, especially now that we’re in the second wave.

That is what makes this pandemic so tragic – many have been badly affected, but depending on where you sit on the social spectrum, you may not have noticed. Zakaria makes a great point: “Has the relative normalcy of life for the elites prevented us from understanding the true severity of the problem? For tens of millions in America, and for hundreds of millions around the world, this is the Great Depression.”

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 22, 2020, 01:33:44 PM »

Because - Dave Clark Five

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 21, 2020, 07:40:14 PM »

Sarah Vaughan -- Broken Hearted Melody

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 21, 2020, 01:05:44 PM »

Go All The Way - Raspberries

The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: October 21, 2020, 01:00:56 PM »
Long-Lost Medieval Monastery Discovered Beneath Parking Garage in England
Carmelite friars established Whitefriars in 1270, but the religious site was destroyed during the Protestant Reformation

The Native Americans had agriculture (Corn) so that wasn’t the problem. What made Europe so depleted so early? I thought the Industrial Revolution was the mistake but the first explorers got here before it started. Where did Europe go wrong?

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 21, 2020, 11:59:09 AM »
That one is worth being an American hit. We have foreign languages get hits every once in awhile and with google translate we can even find out the lyrics.

Antarctica / Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE
« on: October 21, 2020, 11:55:00 AM »
I know that. I was just highlighting the vicious circle effect.

Antarctica / Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE
« on: October 21, 2020, 12:34:35 AM »
Of course rising temperatures will increase the demand for cooling technology and infrastructure.

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: October 20, 2020, 09:21:06 PM »
Maybe people are trying to get out of the cities in part because of the urban heat island effect?

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 20, 2020, 01:40:12 PM »
World and USA graphs attached.

We are not in a good place.
I'll say. They just go up exponentially. There isn't even a slowing during the summer that I can see.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 20, 2020, 01:03:07 PM »

Sugar Shack - Jimmy Gilmer and the Fireballs

The Real Recession Is Just Starting

Don’t be fooled by the retail sales data or the talk of the return of inflation;
Don’t hold your breath for or hold out cash in anticipation of rising interest rates;
The economy is in Recession; we just haven’t felt it because of the CARES Act stimulus, but, eventually we will because we have a huge, huge unemployment problem;
And then there is the oncoming eviction crisis (on hold until year’s end); there hasn’t been much discussion about this, and I wonder if it is priced into financial markets;
The CARES Act stimulus has covered up the Recession, and another stimulus, post-election, may further kick the can down the road, but free cash cannot go on forever without dire consequences;
·The Recession will persist as long as the virus persists (and we seem to be entering into a second, resurgent phase). A vaccine would help, but getting enough people to take it (providing herd immunity) and then returning to pre-virus behavior may take years, not quarters.

Recession 2020: Everything you need to know
Will the coronavirus recession be worse than 2008?

The World Trade Organisation (WTO) director-general Robert Azevedo said in March this year that projections show the economic downturn and job losses caused by the coronavirus pandemic will be worse than the 2008 recession.

“This pandemic will inevitably have an enormous impact on the economy,” Azevedo said.

“Recent projections predict an economic downturn and job losses that are worse than the global financial crisis a dozen years ago.”

For Australia, the coronavirus recession will certainly be worse than in 2008 given our economy all but escaped any extreme effects felt by the 2008 global financial crisis with most impact felt overseas.

What will the coronavirus recession look like?

Businesses will continue to fold as they are unable to withstand the financial ruin facing them as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.

And we’ll continue to see jobs lost.

Paying rent, phone, internet, utility bills and even a mortgage will become more of a struggle and so bills will go unpaid.

With less income, household spending will drop further.

And then the vicious cycle continues: consumers who are less willing to spend means more and more businesses will struggle, and it goes on.

And of course, the property market suddenly finds fewer buyers, meaning house values drop.

Global stock markets have also been volatile for the last few weeks, and investors saw several days where hundreds of billions of dollars were wiped off every time – and we don’t seem to have reached the bottom yet.

While Australia’s economy wasn’t in the strongest standing to begin with, the reason behind most business closures are circumstantial and specific to the virus.

The Morrison government has so far announced two stimulus packages totalling $83.6 billion, to cushion the economic blow on individuals and businesses impacted by the stringent restrictions implemented to curb further spread of the virus and aid our economic recovery.

The government will spend a combined $22.9 billion on income safety nets of $550 per fortnight for those who have lost their jobs, sole traders and casuals and a $750 one-off supplement for those on certain welfare, pension and concession payments.

Australia’s banks have also thrown a $100 billion lifeline, which will pause mortgage repayments until next year for Aussies who have fallen into financial hardship as a result of Covid-19.

Australia’s economic recovery is now largely in the government’s hands, and it will be “critically important” that the government minimises the economic fallout, economist Stephen Koukoulas said.

“It does this by pumping money into the economy, making it easy to get social security payments so people can survive. It is why policies are needed to see the economy as strong as possible to reduce the human costs of high unemployment.”

It’s just a matter of waiting for the virus to come and go.

There’s no hiding Brexit impact in coronavirus recession
LONDON — There are now 72 days until the U.K. leaves the transition period with the EU. Regardless of whether a deal is reached or not, this will mean a sharp change in trading terms between the two sides — and in the midst of a resurgent global pandemic.

Few people have considered how the two will interplay and what that will mean for businesses on the ground trying to deal with both.

IMF: Nearly all Mideast economies hit by recession
The coronavirus pandemic has pushed nearly all Mideast nations into the throes of an economic recession this year, yet some rebound is expected as all but two — Lebanon and Oman — are anticipated to see some level of economic growth next year, according to a report published Monday by the International Monetary Fund.

This comes as the IMF estimates that the global economy will shrink 4.4% this year, marking the worst annual plunge since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 20, 2020, 11:44:46 AM »

Honeycomb- Jimmie Rogers

The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: October 19, 2020, 05:12:13 PM »
Two years to Titan is good, but what would be a game changer is a reasonable time to 550 AU from the sun, to take advantage of the solar gravitational focus.

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: October 19, 2020, 01:28:13 PM »
Wow. Even granting that it is dry heat, how close is Phoenix getting to lethal temperatures with those statistics?

Consequences / Re: Places becoming more livable
« on: October 19, 2020, 01:26:21 PM »
Three Places That Will Actually Benefit From Climate Change
The three places are:
1. Northern Minnesota and Michigan's Upper Peninsula.
2. The Nordic Region.
3. Canada.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 19, 2020, 12:56:19 PM »

I'm Into Something Good - Herman's Hermits

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 19, 2020, 11:40:44 AM »

Celebrate - Three Dog Night

Here is a forecast for 2024. Keep in mind that such forecasts tend to be overly conservative:

National debt ~48 trillion, debt to GDP ratio 181.86%, Budget deficit over 5 1/2 Trillion.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 18, 2020, 11:58:07 PM »

Stepping Stone - Monkees

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 18, 2020, 12:42:52 PM »
What our Industrial Civilization is doing:

Let's Live For Today - The Grass Roots

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 18, 2020, 02:33:09 AM »
How long do we have to kick the can down the road on AGW?

No Time - Guess Who

Science / Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: October 18, 2020, 12:57:43 AM »
I took Apr 2022, but it might be a year earlier, since I think the 2021 peak will be something like 419.98.

I guess this fits here even though we are not Europe or America.
NZ election.
NZ is historically part of the British civilization, and imho the title of the thread is overly restrictive.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 17, 2020, 03:22:56 PM »

Everlasting Love - Carl Carlton

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 17, 2020, 03:09:08 PM »

I Say A Little Prayer - Aretha Franklin

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 17, 2020, 03:05:07 PM »
You know, I am a graybeard now (literally) and I remember getting measles and mumps and chicken pox, but except for Gay people we in the developed world really hadn't had to worry about communicable diseases for the last half century or so...until now. I hope this new era doesn't last another half century.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 17, 2020, 11:47:33 AM »

Alone Again, Naturally - Gilbert O'Sullivan

The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: October 17, 2020, 11:45:07 AM »
Ruins of Eighth-Century Pagan Temple Found in Norway
The structure—built to honor Norse gods like Thor and Odin—is the first of its kind discovered in the country

The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: October 16, 2020, 07:43:02 PM »
Three Leather Balls Represent Oldest Evidence of Ancient Eurasian Ball Game
The hair-filled balls were discovered in a 3,000-year-old cemetery in northwestern China.

Policy and solutions / Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« on: October 16, 2020, 07:35:57 PM »
An excellent summary and background of the state of the art in the dilemma of making friendly AI:
The case for taking AI seriously as a threat to humanity
“Some have argued that there is no conceivable risk to humanity [from AI] for centuries to come,” wrote UC Berkeley professor Stuart Russell, “perhaps forgetting that the interval of time between Rutherford’s confident assertion that atomic energy would never be feasibly extracted and Szilárd’s invention of the neutron-induced nuclear chain reaction was less than twenty-four hours.”

The politics / Re: Brexit...
« on: October 16, 2020, 05:02:53 PM »
But where would you go?

Recession 2020: What will happen to the cost of living?
While newly-implemented income tax measures in this year’s Budget will go some way to assist with cost-of-living pressures, believe it or not, we could actually expect the cost of living in Australia to go up.


Call it the ’coronavirus tax’.

Aussies hoarding necessities such as toilet paper, dry food and hand sanitiser has driven Australia’s inflation on some products to record highs.

Economist: 2021 recession likely, presidential election will determine rate of economic growth
The national economy is slowing down and could enter into a recession next year due to the "disorienting, distracting and dizzying" events of 2020, the chief global economist for the The Economic Outlook Group said on Thursday.

Even if there is an effective vaccine for Covid-19 by the middle of 2021, if the United States does not pass another large stimulus bill, the probability of a recession in 2021 is 50%, Bernard Baumohl said during his keynote address, which was given virtually at the Phoenix Business Journal’s 2021 Economic Forecast, sponsored by the Salt River Project.

A recession is almost certain — 90% likely — if there is no effective vaccine until late 2021 or early 2022 and there is no comprehensive stimulus bill, he said.

The International Monetary Fund now projects the global economy to shrink 4.4% this year, according to its World Economic Outlook report. The globe remains in a recession, but the projected decline in economic growth is less severe than an earlier projection in June.

Worst recession since Great Depression, says World Bank
The world is experiencing one of the deepest recessions since the Great Depression in the 1930s owing to the novel coronavirus, World Bank President David Malpass has said, terming the Covid pandemic a “catastrophic event” for many developing and the poorest countries. He said given the extent of the economic contraction, there was a rising risk of disruptive debt crises in countries.

The government must wake up to the fact the Covid recession has hurt Australian women more
Trumpeting infrastructure is all well and good, but it is a strategy suited to defeating the 1990s recession, not the one we face now

Faces of the Coronavirus Recession: How the downturn is affecting lives and votes in Ohio (this hits home for me)
WHO: Basak Durgun, 36, Walnut Hills
JOB: Former visiting professor at Miami University 
HOW WAS SHE AFFECTED? She lost her job in April.

WHO: Brad Horn, 35, Whitewater Township
JOB: Former machine operator at manufacturer GE Aviation
HOW WAS HE AFFECTED? He was furloughed, then laid off in April.

WHO: Lauren Anderson, 61, Hyde Park
JOB: Owner of marketing and branding firm The Creative Department
HOW WAS SHE AFFECTED? She was forced to lay off two employees and one contractor.

WHO: Robert Richardson, 38, West Price Hill
JOB: Security supervisor for a logistics company 
HOW WAS HE AFFECTED? Despite a recent promotion, he’s struggling to get enough hours.

WHO: Jose Salazar, 46, Columbia Tusculum
JOB: Chef and owner of three restaurants: Salazar’s, Mita’s and Goose & Elder 
HOW WAS HE AFFECTED? The pandemic forced him to temporarily shut down two of his three restaurants and lay off most of his staff. His sales still haven’t recovered.

WHO: Jackie Davis, 34, Cheviot
JOB: Nurses aide in a nursing home 
HOW WAS SHE AFFECTED? Her hours are beginning to shrink as jobs in her field get cut.

WHO: AJ Penley, 24, Mount Washington
JOB: Previously a personal trainer and now working at Kroger
HOW WAS HE AFFECTED? He lost fitness clients, then his job in March. Later, he took a supermarket job.

WHO: Ken Batchelor, 65, Lawrenceburg
JOB: Meat cutter at Kroger (recently retired) 
HOW WAS HE AFFECTED? He was making extra money until COVID-19 hospitalized him and left him with medical bills.

WHO: Ben Shipp, 26, Dry Ridge, Kentucky
JOB: Former intern for guest services at Disney World’s Animal Kingdom
HOW WAS HE AFFECTED? He was laid off in March.

WHO: Jayme Johns, 23, moving back to Charlotte, North Carolina
JOB: Flight attendant for PSA Airlines, an American Airlines regional carrier   
HOW WAS SHE AFFECTED? Schedule cutbacks kept her from securing a regular service route and she expects to lose her job.

WHO: Martin Pittman, 52, Pleasant Ridge
JOB: General manager at The Summit hotel, Madisonville
HOW WAS HE AFFECTED? The pandemic closed his hotel, forced layoffs and has left bookings at a fraction of normal.

WHO: Kim Delaney, 41, Independence
JOB: Auto rental worker at Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport
HOW WAS SHE AFFECTED? Laid off in spring, she was recalled in September with a less flexible schedule.

COVID-19 Induces Deep Global Recession for 2020, Says IMF
The International Monetary Fund is projecting a deep global recession in 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic, with global economies expected to shrink by 4.4%. 

Speaking Tuesday at the IMF's World Economic Outlook Forum in Boston, IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath said the pandemic shut down business and industry throughout the world. 

While most economies reopened, prompting the IMF to improve its current forecast to somewhat over its June prediction, Gopinath said resurgences of the virus and other political uncertainties suggest the global economic recovery will be slow and uneven well into 2021.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 16, 2020, 03:35:01 PM »
Here's another:

Unchained Melody - Righteous Brothers

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