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Messages - Tom_Mazanec

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The rest / Re: Good music
« on: January 21, 2020, 09:47:22 PM »
Get a bonus today:

Have I the Right - The Honeycombs

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: January 21, 2020, 08:08:23 PM »

The Byrds Mr Tambourine Man

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: January 21, 2020, 10:32:49 AM »

Song Sung Blue - Neil Diamond

The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: January 20, 2020, 06:17:02 PM »
Sadly true!

Trump's election was personal: It's white America's vicious backlash to black success

Link >>
blumenkraft, the election was so narrow that there are a plethora of "deciding issues". Clinton's email for example. Sexism. You know what my deciding issue was. Any one of a dozen would be enough to have swung the balance.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: January 20, 2020, 06:13:34 PM »

Sure Gonna  Miss Her - Gary Lewis and the Playboys

Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: January 20, 2020, 04:27:54 PM »
How climate change is killing Alpine skiing as we know it
Like other resorts at relatively low altitude, global warming has left its mark on Garmisch-Partenkirchen – the site of the 1936 Winter Olympics – putting the town's identity and affluence at risk. It's January and there's so little natural snow that anxiety is building whether upcoming ski races can go ahead.

Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: January 20, 2020, 04:24:52 PM »
Your Florida coastal home could lose 15% of its value by 2030 due to sea rise
And it could lose up to 35 percent of its value by 2050, according to a new report.
In another Miami-Dade-focused report from Jupiter Intelligence, researchers found that moderate flooding of about a foot will affect nearly double the number of homes by 2050.

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: January 20, 2020, 04:20:33 PM »
Platypus on the ‘brink of extinction’
One of Australia’s most-loved mammals, the platypus, is being pushed towards the “brink of extinction” by climate threats and habitat destruction, researchers say.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: January 20, 2020, 04:16:56 PM »
Australia's fires represent the first acute climate crisis of this new decade
Australia’s brushfires represent the first acute climate crisis of this new decade, and history will judge how humanity responds. The images of charred landscapes, decimated wildlife and people gasping for air shock the collective conscience of people around the world, but will they also shock our leaders into action? The answer to that question could determine the future of humanity and the planet.

Australia wildfires impart vital lesson to U.S.
A heart-wrenching image of a charred juvenile kangaroo trapped against barbed wire captured the devastation of Australia’s bushfires and the bitterness of climate inaction. Distraught onlookers around the world took note. We can only hope that U.S. leaders did too.

Scott Morrison’s plan to make Australia ‘resilient’ to climate change
“What is action on climate change? Building dams. What is action on climate change? Hazard reduction in these areas, it’s native vegetation management, it’s land-clearing laws.

“All of those things actually make you more resilient to longer, hotter, drier seasons. That’s what we’re going to face in the future.

The Search for Clean Air Amid Australia’s Smoky Fires
To measure the health risks of air pollution, the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) uses an Air Quality Index (AQI) based on measurements of the concentration of particulate matter. An AQI of 67 to 99 is considered “fair,” 100 to 149 is “poor,” 150 to 200 is “very poor,” and 200+ is “hazardous.”
The AQI hit 4,650 on New Year’s Day in Canberra, the capital city of Australia.

Policy and solutions / Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« on: January 20, 2020, 03:49:08 PM »
An intensifying climate crisis threatens more than half of the world’s GDP, research says
Industries seen as “highly dependent” on nature generate 15% of global GDP ($13 trillion), while “moderately dependent” industries generate 37% ($31 trillion).

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: January 20, 2020, 02:47:37 PM »

Society's Child - Janis Ian

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: January 19, 2020, 11:04:38 PM »

Jennifer Juniper - Donovan

Consequences / Re: World of 2030
« on: January 19, 2020, 04:16:55 PM »
Based on your numbers I would say 5-8 cms sea level rise until 2030. Nothing to write home about. (don't misunderstand me, it is a serious long term problem and whole countries will be uinder water in 100-200 years, but not much to create interest in 10 years(
Well, a few cms is the difference between just below my lips and just above my nostrils.
Every inch heightens coastal erosion.

The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: January 19, 2020, 04:09:32 PM »
How to form planets around supermassive black holes: Graze a star nearby it.

Ionization and dissociation induced fragmentation of a tidally disrupted star into
planets around a supermassive black hole
We show results from the radiation hydrodynamics (RHD) simulations of tidal disruption of a star on a parabolic orbit by a supermassive black hole (SMBH) based on a
three-dimensional smoothed particle hydrodynamics code with radiative transfer. We
find that such a tidally disrupted star fragment and form clumps soon after its tidal
disruption. The fragmentation results from the endothermic processes of ionization and
dissociation that reduce the gas pressure, leading to local gravitational collapse. Radiative cooling is less effective because the stellar debris is still highly optically thick in
such an early time. Our simulations reveal that a solar-type star with a stellar density
profile of n = 3 disrupted by a 106
solar mass black hole produces ∼ 20 clumps of
masses in the range of 0.1 to 12 Jupiter masses. The mass fallback rate decays with
time, with pronounced spikes from early to late time. The spikes provide evidence for
the clumps of the returning debris, while the clumps on the unbound debris can be
potentially freely-floating planets and brown dwarfs. This ionization and dissociation
induced fragmentation on a tidally disrupted star are a promising candidate mechanism
to form low-mass stars to planets around an SMBH.

Consequences / Re: World of 2030
« on: January 19, 2020, 10:39:40 AM »
I don’t have a drill, I just hammer a nail in the wall.

The rest / Re: Refute climate risk denier arguments
« on: January 18, 2020, 09:51:52 PM »
Here is the latest denier meme..."tidalgate":
<snip, no links to climate risk denial material, thanks; N.>

So there is nothing per se wrong with PSMSL making adjustments in order to make the different datasets align.

What is wrong is the way that the scientists at PSMSL have adjusted them. In every case, they have revised them in order to make them produce a sharp upward trend in sea level rise – despite the fact that global records do not support this.

The truth, Parker and Ollier conclude in their paper, is that sea level has changed very little in the three sites examined:

Here is the paper:

Would this be because of the land slowly rising for some reason, making the sea level "level" at that part of the world?
Is it just a coincidence that the early records overestimated sea level before adjustment, and later ones underestimated it?
I really don't understand this paper very well.

Consequences / Re: World of 2030
« on: January 18, 2020, 06:11:18 PM »
When I owned a large plot if I hadn’t mowed the lawn I would have got in big trouble.

Consequences / Re: Places becoming more livable
« on: January 18, 2020, 06:09:08 PM »
... the immediate solution is to reduce childbirth to one per woman...

A more effective control of population would be to reduce to one child per man.
Why would that be any different?

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: January 18, 2020, 05:42:23 PM »
A bouquet from the Madman of Rock and Roll, Paul Revere and the Raiders



Let Me

Him Or Me

Just Like Me

Mr. Sun Mr. Moon

Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: January 18, 2020, 05:11:39 PM »
Well, for what it's worth:
Your neurodiverse (Aspie) score: 139 of 200
Your neurotypical (non-autistic) score: 58 of 200
You are very likely neurodiverse (Aspie)

I have a big bulge 1 oclock to 3 oclock, and a narrow spike at 5 oclock.
And I figured it's worthless because I figure all such do-it-yourself tests are, in a science that is still mostly art.

Consequences / Re: The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event
« on: January 18, 2020, 04:54:08 PM »
Yes, but what caused that freak outlier? Why was it a lower minimum than the one seven years later with all that extra warming? Was there a storm or something?

Consequences / Re: World of 2030
« on: January 18, 2020, 04:28:51 PM »
nanning, what do you mean by "lifeforms"? Vegetables you eat are lifeforms. Is this where you draw the line?

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: January 18, 2020, 03:25:48 PM »

Buddy Holly -- It Doesn't Matter Anymore

Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: January 18, 2020, 12:51:08 PM »
I was not far from the middle, but on the normal side. I'm not sure that such a test is anything worth.
I’m pretty sure it’s not worth much. That is why I did not bother taking it.

Consequences / Re: The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event
« on: January 18, 2020, 12:49:02 PM »
What was special about, IIRC, 2012? When we had record low September ice (and that big storm in NYC that may have resulted from it)? Why was the ice so low that year? Could it happen agin?

Consequences / Re: The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event
« on: January 18, 2020, 11:54:09 AM »
I’m not so sure that a million square kilometers is enough to prevent such a sudden jump in temperature.

Chicago More Vulnerable to Climate Change than Miami, Says ‘Death and Life of Great Lakes’ Author
At the point when Egan was writing his book, which synthesizes a decade of his reporting on the lakes for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Lake Michigan was at a near record low. In 2020, it’s at a near record high.

“In the past, it would take a quarter-century to go from low to high. We just did it in five years,” Egan said.

Going back to the 1840s, Lake Michigan has reliably peaked or bottomed out within 3 feet of an average level, for a total 6-foot swing. “Chicago was built on that assumption, so was Milwaukee,” said Egan.

The new norm could be 5-foot variations, for a 10-foot swing, he said, and that’s cause for alarm.

Policy and solutions / Re: Australian politics and climate
« on: January 18, 2020, 12:00:05 AM »
When Will Australia’s Prime Minister Accept the Reality of the Climate Crisis?
For now, it seems, Australia will remain reliant on coal. On Wednesday, Morrison told reporters in Canberra, “Our resources industry is incredibly important to Australia.” The country remains the world’s second-largest exporter of thermal coal (the kind used to make electricity), after Indonesia. In 2018, the country sent two hundred million metric tons, worth twenty-six billion dollars, to China, Japan, and other countries in Southeast Asia.
Seems the word they are groping for is "never".

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: January 17, 2020, 11:19:50 PM »
I wonder what enormity Julio committed.
Exacerbating AGW perhaps?

Paul Simon - Me and Julio Down by the Schoolyard

I’ve gone from concerned to alarmed in that time frame.

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: January 17, 2020, 07:49:22 PM »
OK, keep pushing shared transportation here, but don’t whine  when people point out its problems.

Consequences / Re: The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event
« on: January 17, 2020, 12:27:53 PM »
Paul Beckwith on effects of a BOE:

In my previous two videos I discussed how the reflectivity of the Arctic region reduced from 52% to 48% between 1979 and 2011, with global average warning 0.21 W/m2 (1/4 that of CO2). Now I explain the newest science from 2019 on how a Blue-Ocean State (zero Arctic sea ice) in summer would heat the overall planet 0.71 W/m2 with expected cloud invariance (or 2.24 W/m2 with clear skies, or 0.37 W/m2 if overcast). This equals 1 trillion tons of CO2 or 25 years of warming. i.e. global food shortage chaos.

In this video I continue to explain the latest cutting edge science from late 2019 on how a Blue-Ocean State (zero Arctic sea ice) in summer would heat the overall planet 0.71 W/m2 if cloud behaviour stays similar to now. If clouds behave differently, one extreme case would have heat forcing of 2.24 W/m2 with completely clear skies; the other extreme case would be 0.37 W/m2 if the Arctic skies were all overcast (over 95% cloud coverage; similar thickness (optical depth) to now. The middle case (most likely?!) with 0.71 W/m2 is equivalent to 1 trillion tons of CO2 or 25 years of warming. i.e. global food shortages.

In previous videos I explained how the latest cutting edge science from late 2019 expects that a Blue-Ocean State (zero Arctic sea ice) in summer would heat the overall planet the equivalence of 25 years of global warming or 1 Trillion tons of CO2. Putting this into context, as of 2016 an estimated 2.4 Trillion tons has been emitted since the preindustrial period; due to both fossil fuel combustion (1.54 Trillion tons) and land use changes (0.82 Trillion tons). It becomes glaringly obvious that we will blow through 1.5C and 2C Paris safety targets when this happens, not to mention methane and Greenland vulnerabilities.

He states a BOE is likely in five years, certain in ten.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: January 17, 2020, 09:41:10 AM »
I'd like to be a fly on the wall when these daters get home:

Rick Nelson - It's Late

Everly Brothers - Wake Up Little Susie

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: January 17, 2020, 09:34:58 AM »
Please remind me, what was the reason we're still talking about (idling) privately owned luxury cars and not about shared transport?
Please think of me.
Because this thread is called "Electric cars"? Perhaps we need a thread called "shared transport"?

“YOU are very aware that if something goes wrong, it goes very wrong very quickly,” says Joanne Johnson, speaking from her tent near Thwaites glacier in one of the remotest parts of Antarctica."
What is "very quickly"? To a geologist that might be centuries.

Consequences / Re: The WAVY Jet Stream
« on: January 17, 2020, 09:23:13 AM »
Like with many complex systems, I guess there will be a chaotic transition first. True chaos for many decades with some very interesting weather.

Chinese curse: May you live in interesting times.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: January 17, 2020, 09:20:13 AM »
Still trying to get in that party:

Party Lights by Claudine Clark


Both 1962.

Consequences / Re: The WAVY Jet Stream
« on: January 17, 2020, 12:32:57 AM »
I wonder how long it takes for our hemisphere to flip from a 3 cell configuration to a single cell configuration
A single cell configuration would mean no more jet streams? Then what? That would mean a complete disruption of our atmosphere.

Wouldn't we flip to a double cell configuration first?
I asked that question several months ago. If I understand right even number cell systems are unstable.

The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: January 16, 2020, 10:57:45 PM »
In case your local astronomer seems agitated, the big dog gravitational wave detector
@LIGO just detected an ‘unknown or unanticipated’ burst of gravitational waves somewhere deep in space. 👀

Link >>

Here is the report:

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 16, 2020, 05:41:05 PM »
Right, nanning.
I am on the first of three floors, so no roof for me.

“Hundreds of dark ages” El CID?

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: January 16, 2020, 12:11:29 PM »
Climate change is killing one of nature's most famous survivalists
Tardigrades are a lesson in survival skills. These tiny creatures can withstand extreme conditions — from space radiation to being frozen for decades.

Their hardiness inspires hope for post-apocalyptic life and the future of space travel. But new research suggests all is not well for the microscopic invertebrates here on Earth. Space radiation and freezing might not kill them, but our warming planet might be too hot to handle.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Near Real Time Sea Ice Volume
« on: January 16, 2020, 12:05:48 PM »
Sorry binntho, I misread your writing as a drop in temperature preceding an El Nino :-[

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: January 16, 2020, 10:43:43 AM »
Well, at least it's true in the Southern Hemisphere:

The Jamies - Summertime, Summertime

Arctic sea ice / Re: Near Real Time Sea Ice Volume
« on: January 16, 2020, 10:33:48 AM »
If I read that chart right, your hypothesis says there will be no El Niño this year, right?

Re: reply 2603
And sulfate geoengineering does not address ocean acidification and can also have side effects like acid rain.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: January 15, 2020, 10:34:29 PM »

She Can't Find Her Keys - Paul Peterson

Maybe that bag has the answer to AGW?

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: January 15, 2020, 06:09:00 PM »
My property is a unit in an apartment style condo. My investments are a few stocks my father left me. I have not had a job since 2010 and that was ~minimum wage. I live off a shrinking Trust.
I was born in 1958.
Don’t generalize.

Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: January 15, 2020, 06:03:00 PM »
Don’t forget, TB, that all that soil is still pretty saturated, so even if rainfall is less than last year the flooding might be even worse.

Tom, read. It is the projected sea level rise that suggests there will be no drama, not even in 500 years time:
The resulting ocean-forced SLR at year 2500 varies from about 10 cm to nearly 2 m

Worst case nearly 2 meters SLR due to West-Antarctica in 500 years time?? That is soothing. Burn some more oil.
Right, I should have read. I thought it would be a huge hairy report that I would not be able to understand. I don’t see how they could have admitted SLR is accelerating but thought it could be 10cm in 2500.
That literally does not even compute, since steady state rise for 500 years is well above that.

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