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Messages - Tom_Mazanec

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With up to 40 million facing eviction how does this compare with the homelessness of the Great Depression?

May not be the right thread but as Arctic summer sea ice is being referred to, the latest modelling indicates circa 2035 for its first disappearance.

2035 seems about right, right around there is when the trend line for arctic sea ice volume at minimum reaches 0.

Of course that assumes we don't have a fluke event like 2012, which would bring it about sooner.

The politics / Re: Economic Inequality
« on: Today at 12:44:18 PM »
 Here’s what extreme heat looks like: profoundly unequal
But a hotter planet does not hurt equally. If you’re poor and marginalized, you’re likely to be much more vulnerable to extreme heat. You might be unable to afford an air-conditioner, and you might not even have electricity when you need it. You may have no choice but to work outdoors under a sun so blistering that first your knees feel weak and then delirium sets in. Or the heat might bring a drought so punishing that, no matter how hard you work under the sun, your corn withers and your children turn to you in hunger.

It’s not like you can just pack up and leave. So you plant your corn higher up the mountain. You bathe several times a day if you can afford the water. You powder your baby to prevent heat rash. You sleep outdoors when the power goes out, slapping mosquitoes. You sit in front of a fan by yourself, cursed by the twin dangers of isolation and heat.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: Today at 12:51:25 AM »
Arctic sea ice area for Aug 12th,  3,216,550 km^2. NSIDC Daily Area. Change from yesterday of  136,263 km^2

lowests minimum: 2.241 (2012), 2.477 (2016)
(2019) minimum: 2.960
Looking at this chart, a record this year seems unlikely but possible, and a runner-up seems probable.

Latin America will see ‘record-breaking contraction’ as the coronavirus shatters their economies, Goldman says
As Latin America continues to battle the coronavirus outbreak, some economies in the region could see a “record-breaking contraction” not seen since World War II, according to investment bank Goldman Sachs.

Latin America and the Caribbean have become a new global epicenter of the pandemic, and the United Nations warned several countries in the region are “now among those with the highest per capita infection rates worldwide.”

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: August 13, 2020, 06:28:45 PM »
For those who like oldies while surfing the web, put an Oldies radio station online listen on a tab.
So far I have found WDLW, WSWO, WIRL, WQTL, and WYBT.
Of course, if you prefer another format, go on Wikipedia and look for lists of radio stations. They are listed by state, and each one has information listed, including format.You can click on the call letters to get the article on that station, and the infobox has a link to the station's website.
Happy listening!

EDIT: There are also apps (WECK has a particularly good one) so you can listen in the car or elsewhere away from a terminal.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 13, 2020, 06:22:21 PM »
I notice the Trump shirt guy in the Modern World strip above says "People die of all kind of things! It is what it is!".
Sound like somebody on this forum?

The COVID-19 Eviction Crisis: An Estimated 30-40 Million People in America are at Risk
The United States may be facing the most severe housing crisis in its history. According to the latest analysis of weekly U.S. Census data, as federal, state and local protections and resources expire and in the absence of robust and swift intervention, an estimated 30–40 million people in America could be at risk of eviction in the next several months. Many property owners, who lack the credit or financial ability to cover rental payment arrears, will struggle to pay their mortgages and property taxes, and maintain properties. The COVID-19 housing crisis has sharply increased the risk of foreclosure and bankruptcy, especially among small property owners; long-term harm to renter families and individuals; disruption of the affordable housing market; and destabilization of communities across the United States. 

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 13, 2020, 01:56:08 PM »
How the pandemic might play out in 2021 and beyond
June 2021. The world has been in pandemic mode for a year and a half. The virus continues to spread at a slow burn; intermittent lockdowns are the new normal. An approved vaccine offers six months of protection, but international deal-making has slowed its distribution. An estimated 250 million people have been infected worldwide, and 1.75 million are dead.

UK enters recession after GDP plunged by a record 20.4% in the second quarter
GDP (gross domestic product) expanded by 8.7% in June as government lockdown measures eased, having shown a meek 1.8% recovery in May following April’s 20.4% contraction.
The 20.4% second-quarter plunge follows a 2.2% contraction in the first quarter.
Analysts had expected a fall of 20.5% according to a Reuters poll.

The rest / Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« on: August 13, 2020, 01:22:12 PM »
His latter forecast was off by 6 years.
And four or five of those years were because of the Oil Shocks of the Seventies, which brought about conservation and efficiency, stretching out the curve.

Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: August 13, 2020, 01:18:59 PM »
From the Most Trustworthy News Source :‑J

Nuclear to Replace Wind and Solar
Wind and solar are not remotely competitive with coal or natural gas for generating electricity. The promoters of wind and solar lie about this constantly, claiming that they are close to competitive. The lies have two major components. They ignore or misrepresent the massive subsidies that wind and solar get, amounting to 75% of the cost. Then they compare the subsidized cost of wind or solar with the total cost of gas or coal. But wind or solar can’t replace existing fossil fuel infrastructure because they are erratic sources of electricity. The existing infrastructure has to be retained when you add wind or solar, because sometimes the wind doesn’t blow or the sun doesn’t shine. The only fair comparison to the compare to total cost of wind or solar per kilowatt hour (kWh) with the marginal cost of gas or coal electricity. That marginal cost is essentially the cost of the fuel. The only economic benefit of wind or solar is reducing fuel consumption in existing fossil fuel plants. It is hard to build wind or solar installations that generate electricity for less than 8-cents per kWh, but the cost of the fuel, for either gas or coal, is about 2-cents per kWh. Wind and solar cost four times too much to be competitive.
Any factcheck on those prices?

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: August 12, 2020, 11:57:16 PM »

He's a Rebel - The Crystals

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 12, 2020, 05:46:13 PM »
AGW is the greater threat for 2100, but I will be dead in 2100. Covid is the greater threat in 2020. I am not likely to die of AGW, but may die of covid.

Science / Re: Where are we now in CO2e , which pathway are we on?
« on: August 12, 2020, 03:47:02 PM »
Triggering Iceland and Antarctica
And Greenland.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 12, 2020, 03:41:51 PM »
Almost a million people have died directly of covid so far this year, which I suspect is a lot more than have died directly of AGW (I guess those would be heat stroke deaths?). The curve is going up a lot faster for covid than it is for AGW. Yet Neven fulminates about AGW and goes "meh" for covid.

“The Greatest Pull Forward In History”: Why This Recession Is Different, Similar & Worse
The COVID recession resulted in the most significant “pull-forward” of income growth in modern history.
An unprecedented amount of debt was used to plug a record output gap.
This recession is different because income growth increased as opposed to declined. The similarity comes from the use of debt capital to blunt the negative impact of deflation.
The outcome of the recession will ultimately be worse as the level of public and private indebtedness has breached all critical thresholds and will now have a non-linear impact on economic growth.
Overusing one factor of the production function, specifically debt capital, has diminishing marginal returns and will result in the weakest expansionary income growth in the years to come.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 12, 2020, 12:37:43 AM »
New Zealand moves fast to lock down Auckland after return of COVID after 102 days
New Zealand’s biggest city Auckland will be shut down from midday on Wednesday after Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern warned four new cases of coronavirus had emerged.
It was nice while it lasted...

Antarctica / Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE
« on: August 11, 2020, 07:27:04 PM »
A simulation of the future using the same model indicates that the Arctic may become sea ice-free by 2035."
Does this mean for a few days in September, or all year around? I would guess the former, but would not be surprised by the later.

July 2020 Rent Report
The survey of nearly 500 owners and operators of restaurants, bars and nightlife establishments across the city found that a growing number of businesses could not pay rent in July.



 Numbers Continue to Climb as Indoor Dining Remains on Pause

37 Percent of Businesses Paid No Rent at All

What happens when winter comes and you can't dine outdoors anymore?

Global Lockdowns Set to Plunge 100 Million Into Extreme Poverty
“With the virus and its restrictions, up to 100 million more people globally could fall into the bitter existence of living on just $1.90 a day, according to the World Bank. That’s “well below any reasonable conception of a life with dignity,” the United Nations special rapporteur on extreme poverty wrote this year. And it comes on top of the 736 million people already there, half of them in just five countries: Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Congo and Bangladesh.”

The report notes that the impact of the lockdown on the poor in countries like India was “so abrupt and punishing” that their Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, begged for forgiveness.

Out of work and with families to feed, some Americans are lining up at food banks for the first time in their lives
Across the country, Americans who’ve never had to rely on food assistance before are turning to local organizations for aid. In July, the Census Bureau reported that nearly 30 million Americans said they didn’t have enough to eat in the prior week, a situation that is likely to worsen since the expanded unemployment insurance of $600 per week ended last month. Food banks across the country are bracing for both another spike in food insecurity and the fact that the effects of the pandemic are likely to last until 2021 and beyond.

Singapore’s economic contraction in the second quarter was worse than initial estimates
Singapore’s economy contracted by 42.9% in the second quarter of 2020 on an annualized, seasonally-adjusted basis compared to the previous quarter, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said.
The latest update on Singapore’s gross domestic product was worse than the official advance estimate released last month.
On a year-on-year basis, the economy shrank by 13.2% in the quarter ended June 30, according to the ministry.

Sharp, Short U.S. Recession Giving Way to Longer-Term Scarring
Payrolls remain 13 million below pre-pandemic levels and the number of people out of work for 15 weeks or longer more than doubled from the prior month, to 8 million. The labor-force participation rate fell for the first time in three months and the number of people discouraged by job prospects hit a five-year high.
The longer it takes the economy to recover, the worse it will be for wages as a weak jobs market reduces worker bargaining power. For the employed, that may mean a skipped raise or even a pay cut. For the jobless searching for a new position, an enormous pool of applicants may mean accepting less pay.

The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: August 10, 2020, 01:44:22 PM »
Because, well, there ain't no third party.
Why not. b? As I understand it other countries can have third parties (and even fourth, fifth...). What is different about America?

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 10, 2020, 01:23:59 PM »
What is the Real Coronavirus Death Toll in the US?
Nationwide, 200,700 more people have died than usual from March 15 to July 25, according to C.D.C. estimates, which adjust current death records to account for typical reporting lags. That number is 54,000 higher than the official count of coronavirus deaths for that period. Higher-than-normal death rates are now widespread across the country; only Alaska, Hawaii, Maine and West Virginia show numbers that look similar to recent years.

Our analysis examines deaths from all causes — not just confirmed cases of coronavirus — beginning in mid-March when the virus took hold. That allows comparisons that don’t depend on the availability of coronavirus tests in a given place or on the accuracy of cause-of-death reporting.

The rest / Re: Masks
« on: August 09, 2020, 04:21:47 PM »
Europe's Top Health Officials Say Masks Aren't Helpful in Beating COVID-19
The problem with mask mandates is that public health officials are not merely recommending a precaution that may or may not be effective.

They are using force to make people submit to a state order that could ultimately make individuals or entire populations sicker, according to world-leading public health officials.

Irregardless, I am still wearing my masks. Even my Trumpist guardian wears masks.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 09, 2020, 12:00:08 AM »
Is this projection right? Tune in next winter:
A Second Wave of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths This Winter
I’ve been studying the research on Covid-19 since February, and I’ve read through hundreds of studies. I follow various physicians with YouTube channels specifically on Covid. And I’ve come to a conclusion: Covid-19 is seasonal. It is like the human coronaviruses that cause colds, in which the number of cases in winter is much higher than in summer. And this means that the number of Covid-19 cases in the U.S. in winter will be much higher than July. But July had nearly 2.0 million cases. Also, the death rate will be higher, not just as a higher number due to the higher case rate, but the percentage itself will also be higher.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: August 08, 2020, 03:45:22 PM »
RIP Wayne Fontana

Game Of Love - Mindbenders

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 07, 2020, 10:17:48 PM »
What is a cheap, easy way to back up my Mac?

Antarctica / Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE
« on: August 07, 2020, 10:16:07 PM »
I doubt reducing net GHG emissions to zero by 2050 is enough at this late date to hold global warming to 1.5° C.

Science / Re: Where are we now in CO2e , which pathway are we on?
« on: August 07, 2020, 01:59:31 PM »
Yes, I know there is a lot of illumination. I meant the extra illumination.

No "V"
These pictures are worth thousands of words:

Millions of Workers Suffering From Repeat Layoffs
California is not unique. This implies millions of workers nationally are suffering through repeated layoffs and reduced hours.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 07, 2020, 11:55:19 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 6th, 2020:
     5,489,054 km2, a drop of -13,014 km2.
     2020 is still the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.

I am working on table and graph.

I think this is going to be the last small drop for a while.

I expect 60-85K drops for the next 10 days maybe longer coming up.
Why do you expect such large drops?

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 07, 2020, 11:53:28 AM »
OK, I missed something. Can I not go backpacking for a few days & return to "situation unchanged"? haha

Science / Re: Where are we now in CO2e , which pathway are we on?
« on: August 07, 2020, 11:51:53 AM »
So every square meter of the planet has the equivalent of a 3.2?watt bulb burning on it.
What is the wattage of a small penlight bulb?

Gone for good? Evidence signals many jobs aren’t coming back
He and two co-authors have estimated that up to 40% of layoffs in March through May were permanent. That figure will likely rise, he said, the longer the pandemic squeezes the economy.

“We’re kind of past the stage where we’re quickly recalling workers to their old jobs,” Davis said, “and getting to the stage that people will need to get new jobs at new companies or in new industries.”

It is a trend that points to a grinding, sluggish recovery.

Consequences / Re: Locust Swarm 2020
« on: August 06, 2020, 12:26:48 PM »
Locust Swarms Invade Southern Russia, Cause Colossal Damage
Locust swarms have invaded Russia's southern regions causing colossal damage to the local agriculture.

According to regional authorities, the damage is estimated at over 13 million US dollars. 

A state of emergency has been declared in seven parts of the republic of Kalmykia, according to the Emergency Ministry.

Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: August 06, 2020, 12:23:28 AM »
He's 82 so I don't know how long he will keep living.
Here is the information on the mentioned book:

Daly, Herman E.; Cobb, John B., Jr (1994) [1989]. For the Common Good: Redirecting the Economy toward Community, the Environment, and a Sustainable Future (2nd updated and expanded ed.). Boston: Beacon Press. ISBN 9780807047057. Received the Grawemeyer Award for ideas for improving World Order.

Science / Re: Carbon Cycle
« on: August 06, 2020, 12:09:00 AM »
The carbon you breathe out is genuinely renewable, its the carbon that went into manufacturing your food, rather than the carbon in the food itself, that isn't.

Why would some carbon be renewable and some not? Because the not renewable was taken from out of the carbon cycle as fossil fuel and put into it as exhaust? Is that what you mean?
How much non-renewable carbon is an average American who lives a Middle Class lifestyle for 100 years responsible for adding to the carbon cycle?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 05, 2020, 07:56:18 PM »
Yes, 2012 was very exceptional in my understanding. I expect we will get a string of second places for a few years till the long term trend puts us below 2012 and the we are ****ed.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 05, 2020, 07:25:49 PM »
Could someone else take over G's spot temporarily?

The rest / Re: Port of Beirut Explosion
« on: August 05, 2020, 07:20:48 PM »
Texas City killed 581 according to Wikipedia. Texas City was smaller than Beirut is now. How many were killed in this one?

Science / Re: Carbon Cycle
« on: August 05, 2020, 07:15:54 PM »
What is the absolute minimum CO2 a person can emit into the atmosphere, assuming he lives 100 years and his only emissions are respiratory exhalation?

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 05, 2020, 04:32:42 PM »
Sorry folks but...

Dog + Coffee + Laptop = DISASTER.

Laptop may not be repairable and as my budget does not run to a new laptop that's me out of action indefinitely.ĺ
Sorry to hear that, g, but I am did you manage to post that? Did you go to the library? I may need to use your trick someday.

The rest / Re: Port of Beirut Explosion
« on: August 05, 2020, 03:34:07 PM »
I am sure 73 people did not die in this blast. Every big disaster I heard of the first hours (days) always underestimate the fatalities. They lost hundreds of people. I would not be surprised to see thousands.

Antarctica / Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE
« on: August 05, 2020, 12:51:45 PM »
« Reply #3599 on: August 04, 2020, 10:18:13 PM »
The linked 2019 reference (that I have previously cited in this thread) indicates that in an MICI scenario that the calving front could retreat at a rate as high as 100 km/year and that Antarctica's contribution to sea level rise could be as high as 5.5 m by 2100 (see that attached image):

And 19.5 meters by 2200.

According to « Reply #24 on: August 04, 2020, 10:14:55 PM » the Antarctic contribution to sea level rise could be as high as 19.5 meters by 2200.

The rest / Re: Masks
« on: August 05, 2020, 12:40:31 PM »
Houston Mayor Orders $250 Fines For People Who Refuse to Wear Masks
“For months, we have been focusing on education and not citations, but now I am instructing the Houston Police Department to issue the necessary warnings and citations to anyone not wearing a mask in public if they do not meet the criteria for an exemption,” the mayor said Monday at a press briefing.

The calving on that Chasing Ice video took 75 minutes. How long would a collapse of the Thwaites/BSB take? 75 hours? 75 days? How much would sea level rise?

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