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Messages - KiwiGriff

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Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 04, 2020, 09:45:15 PM »
Yes I get that
It suggests the true death rate from Covid 19 is far in excess of the official figures .
I gave the world meter number at the end of the week so we can gauge by how much deaths from Covid 19 are being under reported. 

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 04, 2020, 09:34:46 PM »
The week of 19 march had 871-1181 more deaths then usual.
World meter shows 179 total deaths Sunday 22 march for  Netherlands.  :o

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 04, 2020, 03:24:55 PM »
Thank you for that Hefaistos
I would like to suggest that a 100% infection rate is highly unlikely.
More probable is the herd immunity of a total infection rate around 50 to 75% along with the actions taken has halted the virus spread giving a higher real death rate than 1%. 

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 04, 2020, 07:57:02 AM »
 Drop it.
The virus is bad enough without adding baseless conspiracy's and China bashing to the mix.
If you feel the need maybe breitbart or some other whacko right wing loon site is a better fit for you.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 04, 2020, 06:45:38 AM »
Damn.... I must have been one of the last ones to get that injection. I still have the scar on my shoulder from it.
It was a right of passage .
Get the injection and put up with the older kids bashing your right shoulder for the next eight weeks.
Yes I have a scar .
I don't want to bet my life on the conclusions of  a pre publish paper. 

Consequences / Re: Global recession
« on: April 04, 2020, 12:19:55 AM »

« Reply #186 on: March 21, 2020, 07:20:20 AM »
Out on  a limb.
Griff expects the Dow and other metrics to settle on 50% of their highs .

Dow 15,000 very likely as coronavirus pandemic hits U.S. economy: strategist
Yahoo FinanceApril 4, 2020

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 04, 2020, 12:09:33 AM »
It should also be possible to do studies in countries with universal immunization and immigrant populations from non-immunized countries. If the thesis proves out, they may well do more advanced studies such as this.

1948 BCG (Tuberculosis) immunisation is introduced initially for nurses then later for all adolescents. Universal screening and vaccination of 13-year-olds stops in the South Island in 1963, is phased out in the North Island in the 1980s, and ceases in 1990.
This may make for an interesting  data set if we get more cases here.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 03, 2020, 09:21:30 PM »
There is a hell of a lot of catastrophizing about the economy from the right wing.
This is going to take a year or more to play out.
Once it is over and you either have herd immunity or a vaccine the economy will recover. Economy is just people doing stuff after all .
The dead can never come back, tens of thousnds of survivors will always forever disabled by the effects. .

As to the commentor some are disputing with.
Please just do what I did and add the idiot to your block list .
Saves me having to read you all pointing out how stupid it is .
I don't mind those like El Cid who are optimistic but still contribute sensible content  the terminally deluded are not worth the effort

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 03, 2020, 09:00:22 AM »
Data on cases and deaths on the Diamond Princess cruise ship
In early February 2020 a cruise liner named the Diamond Princess was quarantined after a disembarked passenger tested positive for the virus. Subsequently all 3711 passengers on board were tested over the next month. We extracted data on the ages of passengers onboard on Feb 5, 2020, the dates of positive test reports, which were available for 657 out of 712 PCR-confirmed cases, and the dates of ten deaths among these cases from the reports of the Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare19 and international media.
Opps the death toll from the ship is now 12 and its still not fully resolved
I dont like it when you can get a paper published by experts and find fault ,I dont like assumptions of hidden cases either .

Even according to their method S  Korea is the best data set we have.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 03, 2020, 07:49:15 AM »
Some might find this interesting
NZ policy. Suppression
Of course we are an isolated group of islands two thousand  kilometers of ocean from our nearest neighbor.

Strategic shift from mitigation to suppression of Covid-19
New Zealand appears to be shifting from mitigation (“flatten the curve”) of the Covid-19 to “one of stamping it out and elimination” of the coronavirus until a vaccine is developed – “which is at least January 2021″.

From WRITTEN BRIEFING TO THE EPIDEMIC RESPONSE COMMITTEE (from John Ombler, All of Government Controller)

Standing up the national response to COVID-19

1. In the two months since the National Security System was first established in response to COVID-19 (January 27), there have been several significant and fast paced actions taken to ensure the leadership and organisation of the national response to COVID-19 is appropriately configured for the magnitude of the event. These actions have been taken to:

respond to the growing magnitude of the challenge that COVID-19 presents to New Zealand and New Zealanders
respond to a strategic shift from mitigation or “flatten the curve” approach to the current stamp it out and elimination strategy
broaden and deepen the national effort to increase the pace of delivery for a series of critical interventions and measures.
9. We have made a key strategic shift from a strategy of mitigation to one of stamping it out and elimination. We do not want to end up in a scenario of widespread outbreaks which would significantly overwhelm the health system, as we have seen in Italy, Spain and other countries that have experienced extensive outbreaks. Our current strategy centres around breaking the chain of community transmission through tougher public health measures, in particular intense physical distancing and travel restrictions, which are set out in Alert Level 4.

10. The strategy does incur significant economic and social disruption, but if we are successful at eliminating COVID-19 from New Zealand we will have better economic and social outcomes. Widespread outbreaks would lead to major health, economic and social impacts for New Zealand.

COVID-19 Mitigation versus suppression

Our strategy is focusing on keeping COVID-19 out, stamping it out and slowing it down.
Our aim is to prevent widespread outbreaks. Allowing widespread outbreaks (ie trajectories along the orange and blue curves (‘flattening the curve’)) will significantly overwhelm the health system.
The strategy centres on border restrictions, intense testing, aggressive contact tracing, and stringent self-isolation and quarantine.
Physical distancing will also be required to varying degrees as we continue along this path.
We can call this a suppression strategy.
Should outbreaks occur, a suppression strategy aims to reverse epidemic growth through tougher public health measures – eg by more intense physical distancing and travel restrictions.
The aim is to ensure that health system capacity is not exceeded through strengthening public health measures.
When cases fall, public health measures can be eased slightly.
This cycle repeats itself (refer squiggly green line).
However, we must still prepare for times when capacity of the health system is exceeded by having ‘surge’ options.
A suppression strategy does incur significant economic and social disruption. Longer periods of physical distancing, including school closures, will be required.
However, many lives will be saved and more people remain well so are able to operate the economy and the health care system.
We would need to maintain this approach until a vaccine is developed, which is at least January 2021, and/or the global pandemic has passed.
This approach is distinct from a mitigation strategy, which focuses on reducing the size of the peak (ie moving from the orange curve to the blue curve).

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 02, 2020, 10:08:38 PM »
Well spotted Steven.
Cases 23 march 43,571.
They were only out by 2 to 4 times not 10.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 02, 2020, 09:41:09 PM »
I suggest a quick look back in time on 538 to get a sense of the value in the quoted experts.

Total cases Sunday 29 march 143,491.
Not worth reading if they don't drop of the "experts" who are so wrong.
If they had a filter so you only keep those who have some handle on how things are progressing  it would have value.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 02, 2020, 08:27:24 PM »
Does anyone know how and when the current day's data is updated
World meters links to its sources often more than once a day per country.
The USA is collated by state .
Most seem to be the local responsible press or government office in the region so it would depend on when they up date.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 02, 2020, 03:11:25 PM »
Look at Swedish and Dutch numbers, they have no lockdowns, also South Corea has no lockdown
among many others.

Read this carefully:

BTW once and for all, even with 1 Million death from 7.8 Billion inhabitants of planet earth and all numbers (died from or died with the virus is not the same) the entire thing is a storm in the water glass and overmortality rate ins most countries in europe from respiratory illnesses is
still lower this year than in many othes, i.e. 2018

This is why I get frustrated.

The data set for the EU death rates is  months behind so does not reflect the present . The data set now has a disclaimer attached to point out it can not yet capture the death rates for covid 19 and will not do so for months.

Almost 60% of the USA over fifty and 40 % of the population over all has a pre existing condition many of those here will as well including me .
Conditions such as high blood pressure, overweight,high cholesterol,  asthma ,diabetes etc are very common most live   long and productive lives  and die of something unrelated to such conditions. For example My father had high blood pressure and cholesterol from his thirtys  and developed type two diabetes later in life he died of  bowel cancer  unrelated to these chronic conditions at 78.

"Even one million" is a very low side projection The most convincing  number I have seen is around 2% death rate from S Korea without hospitals getting over loaded . Once hospitals are overloaded or in poor nations with no health care the death toll will be higher .

You can not make any predictions based on the raw numbers yet with such a low ratio of infections to population for Sweden or the Netherlands. Wait a few weeks and things can and will change significantly. The Netherlands while not a harsh as some has taken measures including shutting restaurants and cafes, closing schools, halting all sports and 1.5 m social distancing being enforced

South Korea has a very concerted level of test, track, trace and quarantine rather than locking down. No where in the west is using this method to suppress cases.

 Again it is early yet we have a long way to go before we get enough for herd immunity to halt the spread by natural means or by immunization or can fully gauge the true impact  of different approaches. Those who are certain it not going to be an issue now are relying on faith or misinformation not what we actually know ..

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 02, 2020, 08:53:28 AM »
Can anyone show statistics to prove Sweden wrong at this point?

Have a look at the numbers from these  country's.

I have  used these examples because they have more in common culturally  than other choices that are graphed out on this site.

Notice anything in new cases and deaths?
Three have flattened the growth one has not.

Remember this is exponential if left unchecked. If you fail to curb the growth  it can very quickly get out of control and beyond the capacity of your health system to cope with new ICU  cases.
It is not about the raw numbers today it is where you are heading .

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 02, 2020, 08:04:44 AM »
On a scientific forum we should find differing approaches interesting.

I can not always separate out  the death already happening and the horror of the toll that is to come from my comments.
Also I are not only commenting here. Some of the frustration generated by trying to fend off the idiocy being posted else where  bleeds into my comments here .

As always oren attempts to keep it polite and productive .
Thanks Sensei .
And an apology to all if I don't always meet your standards .


The rest / Re: The off topic off topic thread
« on: April 02, 2020, 07:29:48 AM »
 Often they chuck the bread in ponds which rots as a result breeds bacteria that then kills the ducks and all the pond life.
During the warmer summer months ducks at parks and waterways across Auckland can succumb to avian botulism, a bacterial disease which lives in soil and can cause the death of water-based birds.

Auckland Council Head of Operational Management & Maintenance Agnes McCormack says:

“This is a reoccurring issue for many of the parks around Auckland. Avian botulism spores exist in lakes and ponds, and thrive when temperatures rise and oxygen levels drop. Ducks ingest the bacteria when they feed. The disease causes paralysis to the ducks and, depending on toxicity levels, death. It does not affect humans, cats or dogs.

“Though the disease can affect a variety of bird life, ducks and swans are more susceptible.

“To counter Avian botulism, we are increasing the installation of barley bales in affected ponds to reduce algae growth and improve water quality, and regularly monitoring sites where there has been issues in the past.

“We will also be installing signs at affected parks to educate park users about avian botulism, and to encourage them not to feed ducks bread – especially in the water. It is better to encourage ducks to forage for their food naturally. Alternately, ducks should be fed on the grass away from the lakes and with grain and seeds rather than bread.”

How you can help
Avoid feeding the ducks, it is better to encourage them to forage naturally.
Don’t feed the ducks bread, it can rot in ponds and promote the growth of botulism bacteria.
If you do feed the birds, seeds and grains are best for their diet.
Pick up your pet’s waste and dispose of it properly.
Call the council when you see a sick or dead duck or swan.
Share this message with friends and family.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 01, 2020, 11:39:07 PM »
Many of us wish to be wrong .
The reality says otherwise.
900 deaths per day in the USA still doubling every three days.
28,800 a day in fifteen days compared with a normal death rate from all causes of 8,000 a day.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 01, 2020, 09:38:22 PM »
For ICU capacity certainly the answer is a big YES. This is very important. All countries are increasing capacity in this regard. Sweden is no exception, it's been doubled and by next week it will be tripled. No upper limit has been set, capacity will be increased as much as possible by all means possible.
No one has a machine that provides fully trained doctors and nurses at a press of a button.
The physical machines are not an intensive care facility you also need the trained staff to operate them. Sweden can not endlessly increase capacity and expect the same level of professional care.
This wrongful thinking  will result in a rising death ratio.

I still have about 10 days to go before my prediction that Sweden will join the rest of Europe in instituting  lock down. I do not see any evidence in the rising toll in Sweden to suggest that I am wrong. 

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 01, 2020, 08:30:13 PM »
I am amazed by the figures for South Africa

This country does not make the headlines, although it seems, dumbly looking at the figures, that it has curbed the outbreak far better than European countries (not to mention USA).
Anyone here think SA has the capacity to test or the medical resources of an OECD member county?
It is a reasonable expectation that the virus is going unchecked and un recorded among the poor populations of all of Africa, Asia and South America.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 01, 2020, 08:13:55 PM »
The Diamond Princess recorded its 10 death by the 23 of march.
Anything using  7 deaths from that time can safely be ignored as can those who wrote such pieces.
If you can not get even basic facts right and are not aware that the number of deaths is not resolved until all cases are cleared your expertise is sadly lacking.
This sort of bullshite is killing people and those responsible for spreading poorly researched crap are partially to blame. 

The rest / Re: Empire - America and the future
« on: April 01, 2020, 07:11:12 AM »
Paul Krugman in the New York Times

It’s hard to feel any sympathy for Trish Regan, the Fox News host who was fired after a rant in which she called the coronavirus “yet another attempt to impeach the president.” We may never know how many Fox viewers became gravely ill or died because they ignored social distancing in response to people like Regan, who told them that the pandemic was a politically motivated hoax. But the number was surely significant.

The twist in the Regan story, however, is that what she said wasn’t significantly different from what her whole network had been saying for weeks. Her career-killing mistake wasn’t saying something false and evil, it was her timing. She apparently missed the abrupt turn in the party line by a few hours.

For Regan’s rant came just after Fox and right-wing media in general suddenly changed their line from “the pandemic is a liberal hoax” to “everyone must unify behind our great leader in his heroic struggle against the Chinese virus.” And for some reason Regan didn’t get the memo.

Actually, Regan wasn’t the only person who didn’t get the memo. A number of people on the religious right are still sticking with the virus-as-hoax story, notably Jerry Falwell Jr., who defied public health experts by reopening Liberty University — and promptly created his own personal virus hot spot. But most leading figures on the right have swerved on command.

Needless to say, the mounting coronavirus death toll hasn’t produced any apologies from pundits who previously claimed that the virus was a hoax, let alone admissions that the terrible, horrible, no-good mainstream media were actually giving accurate information. Perhaps more surprisingly, as far as I know there haven’t been any howls of protest from Fox viewers, or Rush Limbaugh listeners, who are now being told something completely different from what they were hearing three weeks ago. Their trust in Fox, their disdain for The New York Times and The Washington Post, and, above all, their faith in Donald Trump are apparently unshaken.

The parallels with George Orwell’s “Nineteen Eighty-Four” are obvious. When Oceania suddenly shifts alliances, and its former ally Eastasia becomes an enemy, everyone knows what to believe: not only was the nation at war with Eastasia, it had always been at war with Eastasia. In Orwell’s vision, however, this mind-set was produced by a totalitarian state whose vigilant Thought Police stamp out any hint of independent thought. America isn’t a totalitarian state — not yet, anyway — yet there are tens of millions of American apparently willing to act and think as if the Thought Police were already up and running.

Orwell wrote a great essay a few years before “Nineteen Eighty-Four” titled “Looking Back on the Spanish War.” In it he wrote of his vision of a “nightmare world in which the Leader, or some ruling clique, controls not only the future but the past. If the Leader says of such and such an event, ‘It never happened’ — well, it never happened. If he says that two and two are five — well, two and two are five. This prospect frightens me much more than bombs.

Well, a lot of Americans evidently already live in that nightmare world. And that scares me more than Covid-19.

Sourced from Climate Denial Crock of the Week
with Peter Sinclair

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 01, 2020, 06:05:37 AM »
A pleasure oren.
I only found this out when debunking some right wing gibbering we all know so well.
The exercise of my mind is stimulating tracking down as close to reality as I can discover .
I question why it is so easy to find fault with so called experts  and why so much garbage easily debunked by this functionally illiterate high school drop out  gets spread so willingly.
The entire world is turning into an Idiocracy .

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 01, 2020, 05:23:57 AM »
I note that they only had 7 deaths on the Princes, while the true count was 10. So they did not adjust for the delay enough, and thus underestimated the CFR/IFR in China.

Wiki gives an up to date death rate from the princess at 12 and links to  Japanese language sites for a source.

Two passengers died on 20 February[119] and a third on 23 February, all three of whom were Japanese citizens in their 80s.[120] A fourth passenger, an elderly Japanese man, was reported on 25 February to have died.[121] The fifth fatality, a Japanese woman in her 70s,[14] and the sixth fatality, a British national in his 70s, both died on 28 February.[122][15] A 78-year-old Australian national, who was evacuated from the ship, died on 1 March in Australia, making him the seventh.[16] A Hong Kong national from the ship died on 6 March, making him the eighth.[123] A Canadian man in his 70s died on 19 March, making him the ninth coronavirus-related death from the ship.[124][18] Two Japanese male passengers in their 70s died on 22 March making them the 10th and 11th death.[19] A Hong Kong woman in her 60s died on 28 March, making her the twelfth.[20]
They also give a number for infections among the crew that skews the age demographic somewhat.

Using the diamond princes is not as accurate as you would presume.  There has been insufficient follow up on the crew since the passengers disembarked and the crew were repatriated to the Philippines and India . 

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 31, 2020, 11:55:22 PM »
Actually, it has everything to do with the population.

This one continues to ignore the fact that actions or lack of have results.
If you lock down you reduce personal contact enough  the RO becomes less than one.
Can not be bothered with reading such  idiocy on this science based forum .
Joins my block list.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 31, 2020, 09:16:24 PM »
If you can not get masks spray the virus away.
Masks and hand sanitizer are unattainable here all stock sold out long ago due to hording.
I use methylated sprints* mixed with a little water and detergent in a spray bottle
Every surface I touch out side of home gets a spray before contact  when possible.
Obviously not possible in shops
In that case I take care to limit contact and spray my hands, car keys ,door handle, steering wheel bank card etc and all goods as soon as I can .
We have good distancing and shops are only allowing limited  persons to enter at a time.

*Methylated spirits Denatured alcohol  is almost pure ethanol here with bittering agent and color added .  water to slow the evaporation rate down, detergent as a surfacent.
It is probably not good for my hands to wash them in almost pure alcohol but who cares if it stops me getting sick or dying. 

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 31, 2020, 09:24:34 AM »
but as it usually takes 1 week to die from this I find that not right.

17.8 days from symptom  to death according to a paper published today in the lancet.

They also give the following death rates.
The death rate from confirmed COVID-19 cases is estimated at 1.38%, while the overall death rate, which includes unconfirmed cases, is estimated at 0.66%.

They use the assumption that cases are evenly spread throughout the population and the overwhelming number of cases reported are in the over fifty age group to calculate  their unconfirmed case count.

I still find the S Korean data and an examination of their death rate more convincing.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 31, 2020, 02:53:03 AM »
El Cid is an perennial optimist on almost all questions.

Your bounds from Iceland are very similar to what I found for Korea.

Many are pinning their hopes on the significant  hidden cases hypothesis that we have very limited evidence for. Perhaps when a reliable antibody test is widely instituted we will know
Until then it is not a good idea to base responses with the potential for  the deaths of millions on such a baseless hypothesis.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 30, 2020, 11:08:00 PM »
1.086 cases 157 recovered 2 dead.
Not enough resolved cases  to make any projection based on that data.
Some victims are OK for weeks only to rapidly decline and die .
Iceland is a data set that shows promises to give us valid information over time just not yet

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 30, 2020, 09:52:09 PM »
Probably the most accurate representation of infection to test ratios  and death rates to resolved cases is the numbers from Korea
They have had a massive testing effort since very early on so have picked up many unsymptomatic and mild cases and have a high ratio of resolved to active cases.
Deaths to known cases 1.64%
Their death rate is still rising quicker than new cases suggesting this % will continue to increase
Recovered / Discharged 5,228 (97%)  Deaths 158 (3%).
To me this suggests  an over all case to death count bounded by  1.64% to 3%.

Many are noting pollution levels may be a factor in death rates.
Another confounding factor I have not seen mentioned is over all health of a population.
Korea has a high life expectancy the USA low for the developed world.
Will this result in a higher death rate in an older population or more deaths due to a higher rate of chronic conditions in the younger population?


Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 30, 2020, 08:27:05 AM »
Astrophysicist gets magnets stuck up nose while inventing coronavirus device
Australian Dr Daniel Reardon ended up in hospital after inserting magnets in his nostrils while building a necklace that warns you when you touch your face
Still laughing.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 30, 2020, 08:02:17 AM »
One to ten million 13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million 14 (20.6%)

Those who estimated as above I would regard as realists.
Out side of this  range you have the real optimists and pessimists.
As with AGW How us apes  respond is the greater unknown .

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 30, 2020, 06:49:53 AM »
The only factor I can find so far that could make a large difference is the number of asymptomatic cases. If if turns out that for each diagnosed case there are 10 or 20 undiagnosed mild cases that go nowhere and generate immunity, then the total fatalities and total hospitalizations should be much lower than expected in the dire scenario, and the disease will peak much earlier as it runs out of available hosts. How sure are we of this factor?

South Korea has tested more than 270,000 people,9,661 cases ,158 deaths.4,275 Currently Infected Patients,4,216 (99%)in Mild Condition 59 (1%)Serious or Critical,Recovered:5,228
Apparently their cases from the church group, the main epicenter of infection, were predominantly young.
Still it does suggest many mild cases are going unreported in other places. 
Not by a factor of 10 .

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 29, 2020, 11:20:36 PM »
However, the virus cannot continue to grow exponentially.  It did not in China or South Korea, and appears to be nearing a peak in Italy. 
Only after lock down .
You don't seem to get that actions have results.
On one hand you are minimizing the threat on the other you are invoking places that are not and are taking drastic actions.
Not joined up thinking.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 29, 2020, 10:43:55 PM »
Seeing how you don't get it maybe this is more your level.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 29, 2020, 10:11:55 PM »
I am following the current advice of the local authorities. Like almost everybody in Sweden.
No policing necessary. No army on the streets.
I give Sweden two weeks before they get it .
Stay the fuck at home.
We have lock down here only essential business running all else is closed.
The police are pulling over cars and asking what you are doing.
No one is being prosecuted or anything  it is simply a genial friendly reminder from the local plod  to the very small minority ignoring the directive .
Stay the fuck at home.

Did I say it enough ?
Stay the fuck at home for fucks sake . 

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 27, 2020, 10:10:16 PM »
NEW YORK (from New York Governor Cuomo daily briefing):

Apex of hospital need could be in 21 days from now in New York
All hospitals need to increase capacity by 50%, some by 100%
Need a total of 140,000 hospital beds. Currently have 53,000 (an additional 87,000 hospital beds are needed)
Need a total of 40,000 ICU beds. Currently have 3,000, with 3,000 ventilators. An additional 37,000 ICU beds are needed
Will use college dormitories, hotels, nursing homes, and all possible space by converting it to hospitals if needed in April
138,376 people have been tested
Schools will stay closed for an additional 2 weeks after April 1, to then reassess the situation and extend again if needed. 180 days requirement has been waived
"This is not going to be a short deployment [...] This is going to be weeks, and weeks, and weeks [...] This is a rescue mission you are on, to save lives. [...] You are living a moment in history that will change and forge character"

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 27, 2020, 09:08:06 PM »

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 27, 2020, 08:55:42 PM »
Coronavirus: Government starts economic planning for post-lockdown New Zealand

Robertson already has groups burrowing away within the public sector looking at both clean energy initiatives and the housing market, saying that the Government will be "looking at the kind of industry development model, you know, what do we do so that we don't repeat previous mistakes.

"So we are focussing on the areas that we are needing to be making progress on."

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 27, 2020, 08:18:51 PM »
Yeah 88 mph.
Never happens.
Fired up the DeLorean  went back  and deleted it.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 26, 2020, 12:36:24 PM »

The USA has been on a consisted exponential growth path since day 11 (March 1). Italian Covid‑19 incidence levels – currently just over 8,000 known cases per 10 million people on 23 March – will be reached in the United States by day 39 (Sunday, March 29) if there is no decline from this path. Further death rates in the USA are likely to accelerate; there is no obvious reason why deaths as a percentage of known cases should be substantially less in the United States than in Italy.

The United Kingdom chart is on an identical grid to the USA chart. While the growth rate of known cases is on a slower exponential growth path (and projects to reach present Italian levels a day later than USA), the UK death rate is on a faster growth path. The most likely explanation here is that the UK case data has becoming increasingly divorced from the actual incidence of Covid‑19 in United Kingdom. While the UK undercount may be less than Italy’s, it is very much the death tally that has now become the key indicator in the UK (as it has in Italy and Spain). Covid‑19 deaths per 100 million people have reached 500 in the United Kingdom, but 150 in the United States.

Fuck bars.
Fucking moronic right wing death cult whacks
Cunt headed mother fucking idiots are committing suicide with covid 19 and we are the collateral damage.
The only bright hope is enough boomer fucktards die that politics changes  in the Anglophile country's and we actually manage to engage with reality going forward.
Correction slim hope...learn from our mistakes  kids ....

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 26, 2020, 07:12:35 AM »
That means that IF 80% of boomers catch it, and 4% die, that is 2.3 million (approx)

If when  we start seeing that level of death it will be multiple times 4% as hospitals become over loaded.


Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 25, 2020, 11:34:54 PM »

The median age of Fox News viewers is 65.
According to Nielsen ratings, the median age of Fox’s audience was 66 in 2016. Following something of a youthful surge the following year, Adweek reported “good news” for Fox News early in 2018. Over the past year, the median age of the cable channel’s audience had dropped to 65. Looking at prime-time numbers alone, Fox viewers kicked back up to 66.

# boomer remover .

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 25, 2020, 01:28:43 AM »
A) Countries that test everyone have about 17 days lag from number of cases to number of deaths (Day 6 to Day 23).
B) Countries that only test patients admitted to hospital have about 12 days lag from number of cases to number of deaths (Day 11 to Day 23).

The number of deaths ONLY become apparent once every case is resolved ether tested clear of virus or dead .
You can be kept "alive" for a long time by modern medicine  even to the extent of being clinically brain dead and rotting.

The diamond princess is a good  example .
Confirmed cases 712,Deaths 10,Total Recovered 587.
It has been 25 days since the ship was evacuated and there are 115 cases still to be resolved. Some 15 of these overhanging cases are listed as critical.
 After 25 days we still do not have the true death rate from the ship.

Most here probably grok this but... I am sick of arguing with right wingers on other forums who use cherry picked numbers to claim the risk is low so we should not do any thing as drastic as lock down .

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 23, 2020, 04:26:00 AM »
New Zealand moved up to COVID-19 Alert Level 3 – Restrict
New Zealand to move up to COVID-19 Alert Level 4 – Eliminate, in 48 hours
Two-staged approach to give people and businesses time to prepare
Level 3, from tomorrow

Non-essential businesses must close
All events and gatherings must be cancelled
Schools will only open for children of essential workers. They will close completely when we move to Level 4
Workplaces must implement alternative working with everyone who can to work from home
No discretionary domestic air travel between regions
Public transport for people undertaking essential services and transport of freight only

New Zealand has moved up to COVID-19 Alert Level 3 – Restrict, for the next 48 hours before moving into Level 4 – Eliminate, as New Zealand escalates its response to stop the virus in its tracks, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced today.

“Due to the early and strong steps we’ve taken, New Zealand is fortunate not to be as hard-hit by the virus as other countries but the trajectory is clear. We are under attack like the rest of the world and must unite to stop the worst from happening here,” Jacinda Ardern said.

“If community transmission takes off in New Zealand the number of cases will double every five days. If that happens unchecked, our health system will be inundated, and thousands of New Zealanders will die.

“Together we can stop that from happening and our plan is simple. We can stop the spread by staying home and reducing contact.

“Moving to Level 3, then 4, will place the most significant restrictions on our people in modern history but they are a necessary sacrifice to save lives.

“At Level 3, we are asking non-essential businesses to close. This includes bars, restaurants, cafes, gyms, cinemas, pools, museums, libraries and other places where people gather together.

“Essential services will remain open, such as supermarkets, banks, GPs, pharmacies, service stations, couriers and other important frontline service providers.

“Gatherings, indoors or out, and of any shape or size, must be cancelled. This means weddings, birthday celebrations and other gatherings.

“Workplaces should have everyone working from home. Essential services will stay open at every level, but must put in place alternative ways of working including physical distancing of staff of two metres.

“Schools will be closed from tomorrow, except to children of essential workers who still need to go to work each day including doctors, nurses, ambulance drivers and police. This will be temporary, and schools will close entirely from midnight Wednesday.

“The school term break will be brought forward. For the remainder of this week and through the term break schools will establish ways to deliver teaching online and remotely as quickly as they can.

“Public transport and regional air travel is restricted to those involved in essential services and freight, with domestic air travel permitted in some cases for people to leave the country and to get home to self-isolate. Private travel is allowed.

“I say to all New Zealanders: The Government will do all it can to protect you. Now I’m asking you to do everything you can to protect all of us. Kiwis – go home.

“Today, get your neighbour’s phone number, set up a community group chat, get your gear to work from home, cancel social gatherings of any size or shape, prepare to walk around the block while keeping a two-metre distance between you.

“If in doubt, don’t go out.

“These measures will be in place for four weeks at this point.

“New Zealand is fighting an unprecedented global pandemic and it will take a collective effort of every single New Zealander doing the right thing to give us our best shot at curtailing community outbreak,” Jacinda Ardern said.

Further details available at

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 22, 2020, 06:03:06 PM »
I am a realist.
I voted 10 to 100 million and are still confident we will see still such a toll

Some are thinking from a first world perspective.

When this runs rampant though Africa, India and other less wealthy places ?

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 21, 2020, 08:23:22 PM »
NZ national alert levels  .
We are at two now.
The government  opened drive though testing stations today.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 21, 2020, 08:15:19 PM »
The average Time from diagnose to death is about twenty days.
Germany had confirmed very few cases 20 days ago now 22084 their cases count is  doubling every two days .
 They reported 45 deaths on the 21 and now have 83.
Wait a week and their mortality rate will look more in line with other places .

Consequences / Re: Global recession
« on: March 21, 2020, 07:20:20 AM »
Out on  a limb.
Griff expect the Dow and other metrics to settle on 50% of their highs .
We still have a while to fall yet.
Why the fuck don't they get it ?
This pandemic  a global catastrophe that will play out over the coming years not months.

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