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Messages - KiwiGriff

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1
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 12, 2019, 12:23:02 PM »
When the legacy industry starts building electric cars Tesla is doomed.
Tesla do not have any advantage. Tesla has no technology that legacy industry can not just simply buy of the shelf.

The Audi etron was going to have competitive  range .
the Porsche Taycan was going to have competitive range .
Anyone willing to bet what the ID3 will have?

2
Consequences / Re: Volcanoes
« on: December 10, 2019, 07:00:42 PM »
Quote
Whakaari/White Island has been at a level two alert level 10 times since 2012, but yesterday was the first time it went from level two to an eruption.

While tour operators felt this level was within operating guidelines, some experts say the eruption wasn't wholly unexpected and even a "disaster waiting to happen".

Data gained from GeoNet website bulletins shows the alert level has reached two twice this year. It also reached the level in 2016, 2013 and 2012.

The bulletins show that yesterday's eruption was the first time an alert level of two led to an eruption. Eruptions in 2016 occurred when the alert level was at one.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/118101001/whakaari--white-island-a-level-two-sense-of-security

Web site for NZ geological hazards monitoring .
https://www.geonet.org.nz/

3
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 10, 2019, 06:30:47 PM »
  "how little ground there can be to hope that men may be reasoned out of their errours*, when in fact they were never reasoned into them, but adopted them from prejudice, passion, or policy."
Lyman Beecher


4
Consequences / Re: Volcanoes
« on: December 10, 2019, 03:37:51 AM »
I would not say any of our active volcanoes are  ever 100% safe.
Any  of them could have an eruption at any time . Even our biggest city is built on a massive volcanic field that has historically had an eruption every 500 years. last eruption in Auckland,  rangitoto, was 600 years ago .
The warning level on White island was at three but there is plenty of occasions when the volcanoes are at elevated risk and nothing happens. It is dangerous to walk around on an active volcano that is part of the attraction. Shite happens I am sorry that some died but ffs don't make it impossible to experience earths wonders because the natural world also comes complete with some risk.

I have a pet rock that jumped onto my boat 500 Nautical miles out in the pacific  :D
Seeing a raft of pumice that goes on for days is an awesome sight
I sailed though the one from the Home Reef eruption  in 2006.

Edit alert level was at two.

5
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 09, 2019, 08:03:39 PM »
GSY also predicted Tesla would be bankwupt within a few months of hitting $200 a share.
It hit that milestone in may..... it is now at $346.
Don't ask GSY how much he has shorted Tesla it may result in a flurry of capitalized invective  aimed at us "morons".

6
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 09, 2019, 07:11:22 PM »
Tesla's Shanghai assembly plant to be completed in May - The factory to have its own production lines by the end of the year.


Negative one billion percent chance.

How can anyone possibly believe a muddy field is going to be a factory in 2 months? Just absurd.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: December 07, 2019, 09:51:43 AM »

Without significant change in policy we are heading to  over 3C this century .

Climate tipping points — too risky to bet against
Quote
More than half of the climate tipping points identified a decade ago are now "active," a group of leading scientists have warned.

This threatens the loss of the Amazon rainforest and the great ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland, which are currently undergoing measurable and unprecedented changes much earlier than expected.

This "cascade" of changes sparked by global warming could threaten the existence of human civilisations.

Evidence is mounting that these events are more likely and more interconnected than was previously thought, leading to a possible domino effect.

In an article in the journal Nature, the scientists call for urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to prevent key tipping points, warning of a worst-case scenario of a "hothouse," less habitable planet.

"A decade ago we identified a suite of potential tipping points in the Earth system, now we see evidence that over half of them have been activated," said lead author Professor Tim Lenton, director of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter.

"The growing threat of rapid, irreversible changes means it is no longer responsible to wait and see. The situation is urgent and we need an emergency response."

https://phys.org/news/2019-11-climate-comfort.html

Magic thinking some as yet unknown technology will save us is not a solution it is overoptimistic fantasizing  .

8
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 07, 2019, 01:12:42 AM »
Streisand effect .
 ;)

9
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 06, 2019, 11:27:57 PM »
The legacy industry makes higher margins on the more expensive versions. Selling more expensive versions first forces the legacy industry to react as it erodes their profit centers.
Tesla is production constrained they do not have the capacity to produce million of low cost cars even if they could do so at a profit .
There are  calculations based on the cyber tricks specs that suggest Tesla is down to about $110 kwh at the pack level. At that price battery costs have reached the tipping point we have been waiting for.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: December 06, 2019, 08:45:01 PM »
Shared Humanity
I have kept out of this for a while because it is an off topic debate on a thread for questions and answers not long debates .
My view?
The new thread just created by Tom is the right place for this discussion.
Refute Denier arguments .
Because thinking unconstrained emissions  and the resulting climate change  is not going to have an extremely negative impact on humanity is denial according to the gold standard of the debatable conservative IPCC.

GDP?. How do you put a price on losing not only your home but your community and your entire country? What is a species worth? Do we have a right to consume now and expect future generations to pick up the tab?
 

11
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: December 06, 2019, 05:53:42 PM »
Enso also effects temperatures on land and rainfall distribution influencing terrestrial uptake by the biosphere .

12
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 06, 2019, 03:41:36 PM »
Year zero may be a little extreme.
Some are pushing for that level of compulsion as the solution for our problem.
Use the market. Taxing  those who excessively consume to modify behavior is far more acceptable to the majority.

FWIW I offset my limited carbon footprint with over a hectare of trees. We are discussing planting and permanently covenanting another hectare of temperate rain forest. I also lightly stock beef cattle and rotational graze the other 4 hectares again a net carbon sink and I get yummy grass fed  steak to eat.

13
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 06, 2019, 10:44:18 AM »
 I just had a look at the second hand market here.  in NZ

Jaguar Ipace sold new 86 second hand on market 10.
Audi Etron sold new  91 second hand on market 10.
Tesla 3 sold new 553 second hand on market 0.
In fact there are only 7 Tesla of any model for sale  out of something like  1000 on the road here .

Second hand cars https://www.trademe.co.nz/motors/used-cars
Numbers sold new https://www.mia.org.nz/Portals/0/MIA-Sales%20Data/Vehicle%20Sales/EV/EV%20Stats%20November%20YTD%202019.pdf

14
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 06, 2019, 08:41:55 AM »
Quote
Phase out the private car (yes also EV) in 5 years and massively improve and electrify public transport in that period, and make it free to use. After 5 years private cars are illegal on public roads. No financial compensations.
OK if you live in a city.
I don't and I don't ever want to again.

Year zero failed the last time it was tried and millions died as a result .......

15
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: December 05, 2019, 07:46:17 PM »
Quote
  The CO2 growth rate lags ENSO.  the peaks in CO2 growth rate lag Niño 3.4 by ~4-6 months.
As does the  Atmospheric Response to ENSO.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/1520-0442-16.9.1391
The Nature and Causes for the Delayed Atmospheric Response to El Niño

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: December 03, 2019, 09:54:42 PM »
You can not separate humanity from the worlds ecology. If we kill Gaia we kill ourselves.

AGW is a wicked problem it has no known resolution as yet.
Quote
A wicked problem is a social or cultural problem that is difficult or impossible to solve for as many as four reasons: incomplete or contradictory knowledge, the number of people and opinions involved, the large economic burden, and the interconnected nature of these problems with other problems.


We are running up against a resolution to the Fermi paradox.
 Maybe we find a solution or maybe smart apes are not the ultimate evolutionary branch that we arrogantly claim.
    That should not stop us from trying.

The Overton window is shifting towards action. We have a very long way to go before what we need to do will become possible.
There is a very good chance of 3 C and starting a cascade of feedback's that push us into hot house earth.  I do not believe human civilization will survive the result.

Finally .Thank fuck I have not bred. It is not my children that will live the horrors to come.

17
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: December 03, 2019, 08:02:31 PM »
Quote
Has the life of the humans digging up important electric car resources improved? Do you empathize with them?

The worlds major suppler of lithium is Australia.
Quote
Oct 17, 2019 - A mid-career Miner with 5-9 years of experience earns an average total compensation of AU$122,607
I don't think $122.607 a year is in need of much improvement.

Cobalt is usually the target when they talk of child labor and horrific conditions.
The Democratic Republic of the Congo supply's around 50% of the worlds cobalt
Only about 15% of the cobalt mined in the Congo comes from the Artisanal mining  responsible for the human rights abuses.
Tesla the worlds biggest manufacture of electric cars is making an effort to insure its cobalt is  ethically sourced.
Tesla have also reduced the amount of cobalt used in their battery's and are working to do away with it entirely .

The oil industry uses much of the worlds cobalt in the process to refine petrol.
We never hear about their ethics.

You have been mislead by the campaign to discredit electric cars by the oil industry.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: December 03, 2019, 09:35:34 AM »
Sam have a look at Taminos full post you will find more interesting detail on the seasonal cycle.
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2019/12/02/the-thermometer-is-melting/
I left a comment trying to entice him into looking at the volume as well.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: December 03, 2019, 09:13:56 AM »
Certainly puts a dent in the pauseites case for a slow down.

I don't see the dip as the effect of an  influence like a cyclic weather pattern. To my ignorant eyes it looks like a permanent state change had a large but limited effect that once saturated reverted to the  steadily increasing prior trend.
if that makes sense  :-\


20
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: December 03, 2019, 08:04:43 AM »
Has anyone proposed a mechanism for the sudden acceleration then return to prior trend ?

 


 

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: December 03, 2019, 06:40:13 AM »
Tamino has done a analyse of the sea ice extent trend .
here
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2019/12/02/the-thermometer-is-melting/

22
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: December 03, 2019, 12:31:40 AM »
I think  Sono Motors has missed the window of opportunity to enter the market.
In your situation I would compromise and place a deposit on a ID3 short range rather than speculate on a start up already well behind schedule .

https://ev-database.org/car/1127/Volkswagen-ID3-Standard-Range
Price
 United Kingdom *   £22,000
 The Netherlands *   €30,000
 Germany *   €30,000
Availability
 United Kingdom   Pre-order
 The Netherlands   Pre-order
 Germany   Expected
WLTP Ratings
Range   330 km
Hatchback Segment   C - Medium

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_ID.3
Reservations (€1000) for the launch model of the ID.3 started on the 8 May 2019, which are set to be delivered in mid year 2020,[8] whereas the base model, expected to cost under €30,000, will be delivered in 2021.








23
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: December 02, 2019, 10:21:58 PM »
I suppose you can differentiate between hard science threads and social ones .

A thread on 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels is not an appropriate place for half a dozen members to have an involved discussion on ocean heat content.
 Not only does it clog the thread detracting from its purpose it also means any significant content on the off topic topic is lost to prosperity.

A few asides would be acceptable, to most. on any thread. When you have a page or more of chatter on a hard science  thread not so.

Propose or Answer a tangential question or add some snark or humor, OK. if it gets more involved suggest shifting to a more appropriate thread.

I am not trying to make rules just attempting to generate discussion on something  I see as important for the health of this forum. 
 

24
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: December 02, 2019, 09:14:29 PM »
Grandmother dumps burnt remains of home at Parliament House in climate change protest

Quote
A woman has brought the charred remains of her bushfire-ravaged home to Parliament House in Canberra, accusing both major political parties of failing to act on climate change.
...snip....
Ms Plesman, who is now living in a Grafton hotel, said she was furious when Mr Morrison offered prayers for victims.

"I lost my house, I lost my way of life — my whole community has — and while that was happening, the PM said that he didn't want us to talk about climate change, that this wasn't the time," she said.

"We weren't allowed to mention climate change and then [Mr Morrison] said that he was praying for us.

"I got really upset and really angry because I just felt that we needed a hell of a lot more than that.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-02/bushfire-victim-nsw-nymboida-climate-change-protest/11757082


25
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: December 02, 2019, 08:42:10 PM »
A few  persons die in a stabbing on London bridge and it gets headlines for days 6,000 miles away
Hundreds die somewhere poor  and it might make a few lines buried among the adds if you are lucky.
The weather catastrophe porn is important on sites like this or we simply do not get informed about them.

The economic costs of climate change  ignores the pain and suffering we are inflicting on the poor. A few homes  in a rich place flooding is given many times more weight than a thousand being destroyed in Bangladesh. 

26
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: December 02, 2019, 06:05:52 PM »
There was no reference to the round trip efficiency.
Been down to many rabbit holes to look further .

A lot of money gets wasted on physically impossible side roads.
Our government is talking of investing money in hydrogen for transport another dead end distraction. Hyundai has brought in a demonstration model to trail  here
Hydrogen is Pointless as the cost of running, inefficiency and lack of infrastructure are too great and always will be .

27
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: December 02, 2019, 05:18:34 PM »
A denier generates a "someone wrong on the internet" response .
https://xkcd.com/386/

28
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: December 02, 2019, 04:20:43 PM »
Plenty of threads. '
Arctic Sea Ice : Forum »AGW in general »Science »Ocean temperatures
That gentleman  has generated quite a few off topic debates lately.
 :o
My tone may have been off.
Did not mean to lecture about off topic thought it was worth noting. .

29
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: December 02, 2019, 02:36:47 AM »
Just a note on thread discipline.
I have been involved recently in a few discussions on here were the thread has been hijacked into totally unrelated topics. For example there is quite an involved discussion on ocean heat content on the Mauna Loa CO2 levels thread at the moment. 
I don't think that is helpful to anyone looking for information on specific topics on this forum or respectful to the dedicated members  who update such threads for the benefit of us all.

I suggest that "We" collectively should  make more effort to shift  discussions to the appropriate threads when a debate gets too far off topic .
 

30
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: December 01, 2019, 09:09:11 AM »
Quote
These oscillations (peaks and valleys) put a huge strain on the grid and cost a lot of money. Who is going to pay for this?

Quote
Supply and demand is an economic model of price determination in a market. It postulates that, holding all else equal, in a competitive market, the unit price for a particular good, or other traded item such as labor or liquid financial assets, will vary until it settles at a point where the quantity demanded (at the current price) will equal the quantity supplied (at the current price), resulting in an economic equilibrium for price and quantity transacted.
Demand pricing.
 

31
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: December 01, 2019, 02:40:42 AM »
Indeed tor
We can expect both deeper droughts  combined with more extreme rainfall events when it does rain.

The Impact of Climate Change and Variability on Heavy Precipitation, Floods, and Droughts
KEVIN E TRENBERTH
Quote
There is a direct influence of global warming on changes in precipitation and heavy rains. Increased heating leads to greater evaporation and thus surface drying, thereby increasing intensity and duration of drought. However,the water-holding capacity of air increases by about 7% per 1 ◦C warming, which leads to increased water vapor in the atmosphere, and this probably provides the biggest influence on precipitation.
 Storms, whether individual thunderstorms, extratropical rain or snow storms, or tropical cyclones and hurricanes, supplied by increased moisture, produce more intense precipitation events that are widely observed to be occurring, even in places where total precipitation is decreasing. In turn, this increases the risk of flooding. Patterns of where it rains also have been observed to change, with dry areas becoming drier (generally throughout the subtropics) and wet areas becoming wetter, especially in mid to high latitudes. This pattern is simulated by climate models and is
projected to continue into the future. Since more precipitation occurs as rain instead of snow with warming, and snow melts earlier, there is increased runoff and risk of flooding in early spring, but increased risk of drought in deep summer, especially over continental areas.
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/staff/trenbert/books/EHShsa211.pdf

32
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: December 01, 2019, 02:26:29 AM »
I don't know why Hefaistos keeps posting sea surface temperature of the southern ocean for ocean heat content .
They are not the same thing.
The southern ocean is one of the most remote places on earth and only directly effects a few thousand hardy souls that live in the southern most tip of south america.
Here in NZ we get weather systems  from the southern ocean but they travel over a few thousand  kilometers of the Pacific first .




The oceans are heated by the atmosphere.
Eli rabbit explains how much better than I can here.
 http://rabett.blogspot.com/2018/11/eli-explains-it-all-how-back-radiation.html




33
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: November 30, 2019, 08:16:52 PM »
Florifulgurator
NZ has something similar .

Quote
Transpower New Zealand Limited (TPNZ) is the state-owned enterprise responsible for electric power transmission in New Zealand. It performs two major functions in the New Zealand electricity market. As the owner of the National Grid it provides the infrastructure of electric power transmission that allows consumers to have access to generation from a wide range of sources, and enables competition in the wholesale electricity market; as System Operator it manages the real-time operation of the grid and the physical operation of the electricity market.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transpower_New_Zealand

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: November 30, 2019, 05:16:54 PM »
Tom
There is a most excellent free on  line course on how to go about debunking climate change denial that you may be motivated to undertake .
https://www.edx.org/course/making-sense-of-climate-science-denial.
About this course
Quote
In public discussions, climate change is a highly controversial topic. However, in the scientific community, there is little controversy with 97% of climate scientists concluding humans are causing global warming.

Why the gap between the public and scientists?
What are the psychological and social drivers of the rejection of the scientific consensus?
How has climate denial influenced public perceptions and attitudes towards climate change?
This course examines the science of climate science denial.

We will look at the most common climate myths from “global warming stopped in 1998” to “global warming is caused by the sun” to “climate impacts are nothing to worry about.”

We’ll find out what lessons are to be learnt from past climate change as well as better understand how climate models predict future climate impacts. You’ll learn both the science of climate change and the techniques used to distort the science.

With every myth we debunk, you’ll learn the critical thinking needed to identify the fallacies associated with the myth. Finally, armed with all this knowledge, you’ll learn the psychology of misinformation. This will equip you to effectively respond to climate misinformation and debunk myths.

This isn’t just a climate MOOC; it’s a MOOC about how people think about climate change.


35
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: November 30, 2019, 03:36:50 AM »
Inside Climate News:
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/26112019/unep-emissions-gap-report-paris-climate-greenhouse-gas-peak-2030
Quote
To be on track for 2°C of warming, the report said, emissions in 2030 would need to be 25 percent lower than today.

To limit warming to 1.5°C, emissions would need to be slashed by 55 percent. Last year, global carbon dioxide emissions rose 1.7 percent.

“Every year that action is delayed, emissions reductions need to be steeper,” said Joeri Rogelj, climate change lecturer at Imperial College London and an author of the report. This is the 10th year in a row that the UN has released an emissions gap report. “It is really the accumulation of bad news every year.”

Confirmation that rising emissions are putting existing global goals further out of reach came on the eve of the COP 25 climate summit that begins in Madrid on Monday.

The meeting will be the first big climate gathering since President Donald Trump began the process of withdrawing the United States from the Paris Agreement. Brazil’s president has also questioned the deal’s relevance.

New data from the World Meteorological Organization published on Monday showed that global average concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere rose to 407.8 parts per million in 2018, up from 405.5 parts per million in 2017.

The increase is the result of man-made carbon dioxide emissions, primarily from burning fossil fuels. Another UN report last week showed that if the world’s top fossil fuel-producing nations follow through on their current plans, they will produce about 50 percent more oil, gas and coal by 2030 than would be compatible with the international goal of keeping global warming under 2°C, and two times more than would be allowable to stay under 1.5°C.

Greenhouse gas emissions have risen 1.5 percent each year on average over the past decade, despite a slight levelling off during 2014-16.

“There is no sign of a slowdown, let alone a decline, in greenhouse gases concentration in the atmosphere despite all the commitments under the Paris agreement,” said Petteri Taalas, secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization.

“It is worth recalling that the last time the Earth experienced a comparable concentration of CO2 was 3 to 5 million years ago,” he added. “Back then, the temperature was 2 to 3°C warmer, and sea level was 10 to 20 meters higher than now.”

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: November 30, 2019, 03:10:35 AM »
Edited to reduce the snark.
 
Quote
Tu quoque (/tjuːˈkwoʊkwi, tuːˈkwoʊkweɪ/; Latin for "you also"), or the appeal to hypocrisy, is a fallacy that intends to discredit the opponent's argument by asserting the opponent's failure to act consistently in accordance with its conclusion(s).

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: November 30, 2019, 02:23:24 AM »
Quote
Irrelevant.  Even the best can spin the data to support their cause.  I know Dana.  We have sparred often in the past.  He used to be more objective, but John appears to have swayed him towards a more activist approach.  In the end, it is the science that counts, not the scientists
This is what is known as a straw man in that you did not address my comment.
I did not name Dana I named a few well respected individuals including the proprietor of this site.
In reply You mounted an Ad hominem attack on someone I did not even mention .
Quote
Ad hominem (Latin for "to the person"), short for argumentum ad hominem, typically refers to a fallacious argumentative strategy whereby genuine discussion of the topic at hand is avoided by instead attacking the character, motive, or other attribute of the person making the argument, or persons associated with the ...

Sk Sc is based on science and insists that any claims are linked to and supported by peer reviewed literature. 


False Equivalence
Quote
Description: An argument or claim in which two completely opposing arguments appear to be logically equivalent when in fact they are not. The confusion is often due to one shared characteristic between two or more items of comparison in the argument that is way off in the order of magnitude, oversimplified, or just that important additional factors have been ignored.
Joe Nova post any old nonsense with no such restrictions on content . Witness the series of posts by her husband David Evens pushing a fringe theory called at last iteration "force x the notch and the delay theory of global warming. This in a site that also frequently claims that warming is a  result of a conspiracy to doctor records by a cabal of corrupt scientists .

Your use of "activist" was also Poisoning the Well by  using Loaded language .
Poisoning the Well
Quote
(also known as: discrediting, smear tactics)
Description: To commit a preemptive ad hominem attack against an opponent.  That is, to prime the audience with adverse information about the opponent from the start, in an attempt to make your claim more acceptable or discount the credibility of your opponent’s claim
Quote
Loaded language or prejudicial language is language intended to produce an emotional response in the mind of the audience, in order to directly affect their views on a topic.
Many of us on here could also be included under the title activist it comes from being informed about the issue and an understanding of the risks we face. 

The frequent easy discerned logic errors of those who oppose any actions to address the issue is what convinced me of global warming .



38
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: November 29, 2019, 08:46:48 PM »
Klondike Kat
If you think skeptical science is as unreliable as Joe Nova you  really are a denier .
Many respected climate scientists have contributed to SK SC. Some you may have heard of like Benjamin D. Santer, Carl Mears, Jason Box, Kevin Trenberth, Zeke Hausfather and some random guy who uses the name Neven .
Joe Nova has fringe cranks and posts that contradict both each other and accepted science .

As to Toms question.
Without being able to access the papers involved I think the reduction in the number of recorded high days is due to the culling of multiple records at the same site. The method BOM use to get a regional temperature relies on constructing a single record for a location like a town or city rather than the one used by BEST that uses every record or part of they can find. That the BOM data set comes to the same result as BEST shows that both methods are reliable.

39
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: November 29, 2019, 10:25:18 AM »
Quote
At the same time, the major stories out now breathlessly talk about how CO2 levels now exceed any time in human history going back 3-5 million years. They utterly miss the fact that under current or even under vastly reduced growth rates, the “current” atmospheric CO2 levels will race above that short term blip in CO2 level 3 million years ago and rise to levels not seen in over 25 million years.
Think of a once in three million year weather event.
Then consider that as a new normal.

40
The rest / Re: Good music
« on: November 29, 2019, 08:06:35 AM »

The Mutton Birds - Nature.

41
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 29, 2019, 12:19:47 AM »
Unfortunately rare animals under threat are a thing .
I found one of these in my back yard   a few weeks ago .
Naultinus_elegans

  DOC has only about 250 recorded sightings  in the wild and it is considered an at risk species due to habitat loss and predation from introduced mammals . Due to their value to reptile keepers overseas poachers have cleared out many remaining populations of our rare gecko  species.
 

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: November 28, 2019, 11:05:41 PM »
All these common myths are so often debunked.
PRATT.
Point Refuted a Thousand Times.

Tom 2/3 of the globe is water.
Overwhelmingly the greatest adjustment to the raw data is found in the ocean temperatures .
The early measurements for temperatures over the ocean have been adjusted up reducing global warming .
Before the II world war  most measurements were taken from a canvas bucket lowered over the side of the boat. Evaporation will cause the contents of a wet canvas bucket to cool. Since about 1940 sea water temperatures are taken direct from the raw water intake on boats giving a more accurate reading that is on average warmer. The major adjustment to the global temperature data of about 0.2C upwards before 1940 is for this very simple reason  that most 12 year old's can grasp.

If the scientists were corrupt as the wacko's propose why would they actually reduce warming with their adjustments?

I highly recommend referencing skeptical  science if you want to refute any nonsense.
They have  all the pratt's covered in depth with graphics and video explanations.
You will not convince the rusted on whacko's.
You can however influence those bystanders who are not so blinded by ideology and give them a good resource to continue to expand their understanding . 

You will have to excuse my upmost contempt for those in denial.
I spent a decade debating with the denial nutbars on line. In that time I ended up totally reevaluating my political standpoint . I was once firmly in the free market neoliberal camp  I would now be considered  left wing.
To many of the right's talking points come from the same sources as climate change denial to be trusted.
They are not your friends. 

43
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: November 28, 2019, 03:26:26 PM »
The problem with such charges is batteries and solar are getting cheaper.
Soon it will be economic to simply switch of your grid connection and rely  only on solar and batteries in many places .
leaving a smaller number paying the fixed cost of maintaining the grid making it more economic to switch off.

 In NZ the grid is owned by a  state-owned enterprise separate from the company's you buy the electricity off. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transpower_New_Zealand.
We already have a component of an electricity bill that represents a line charge for the transmission infrastructure . In my case it was  cheaper  to  go off grid than pay for the 350 meters of cabling from my house  to the entrance of the property and the on going line charge.

44
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: November 28, 2019, 07:54:36 AM »
You are a denier my friend.
You have posted some outright crap like wind speed in the trades as  a proxy for the southern ocean wind speed and SST's as a measurement of  ocean heat content .
If you think with such a noisy data series you can make a case for negative acceleration based on that short a time frame you are  deluded . No one with a clue would propose  a claim that is so far from statistical significance as to be  unsupportable .
You can put in as many smiley faces as you like being a denier  still makes you an extremely low form of life.

45
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: November 28, 2019, 07:12:04 AM »
Hefaistos Halitosis
To paraphrase David Lange.
I can smell the CO2 on your breath.

46
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: November 28, 2019, 06:52:50 AM »



https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/01/20/is-co2-still-accelerating/
Quote
What might be the clearest illustration comes from computing annual average CO2 concentration and using it to estimate the year-on-year change, which is the velocity of CO2 concentration. Acceleration will show as a trend in the velocity. Here are the estimates, together with a trend line which illustrates the overall rise in velocity (i.e. acceleration of CO2):




47
Quote
Yes, we need to get off of fossil fuels as soon as possible.  However [...] we're making great progress in doing so

We are not making progress at all.
Again on this thread .
 Until this clearly shows a change in the rate of CO2 addition no amount of dodgy carbon accounting or talk of  impossible RCP's is going to impact on the reality of our predicament.
The keeling curve is still smegging  accelerating.



PS. Keep it up ASLR I find your contribution  both convincing and informative.  I don't like coming on your thread and distracting you from your excellent series of posts. However....


48
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: November 28, 2019, 12:40:17 AM »
One  up the Luddites . ;)
Quote
Back in June, New York’s legislature – the State Assembly & State Senate – passed a “Right-to-Charge” bill, which would prohibit condominiums, home-owners associations (HOAs) and the like from unreasonably restricting the installation of electric vehicle charging stations. The bill, however, sat there until yesterday, when it was finally delivered to the Governor for his signature. Also yesterday,
'''snip
If we’re lucky Governor Cuomo is eager to sign it, and it won’t get “pocket vetoed” by not getting signed this month. The bill doesn’t just ban condos from restricting electric vehicle charging in the future, but also voids any existing restrictive condo bylaws or covenants.
https://electrek.co/2019/11/27/new-york-legislature-delivers-right-to-charge-law-to-gov-cuomo-thanks-elon/

49
Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« on: November 27, 2019, 08:44:23 PM »
Nasty feeling liking that comment Vox.

AAAS THE REALITY, RISKS, AND RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE
https://whatweknow.aaas.org/get-the-facts/
 
Quote
2.  We are at risk of pushing our climate system toward abrupt, unpredictable, and potentially irreversible changes with highly damaging impacts. Earth’s climate is on a path to warm beyond the range of what has been experienced over the past millions of years.[ii] The range of uncertainty for the warming along the current emissions path is wide enough to encompass massively disruptive consequences to societies and ecosystems: as global temperatures rise, there is a real risk, however small, that one or more critical parts of the Earth’s climate system will experience abrupt, unpredictable and potentially irreversible changes. Disturbingly, scientists do not know how much warming is required to trigger such changes to the climate system.

50
Classic denial cherry picking
Only look at what confirms your prejudice and ignore every thing else.
2019 is warm and it is an ENSO neutral year.
Some evidence points towards increasing frequency of extreme El Niño

Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming
Wenju Cai, Simon Borlace, Matthieu Lengaigne, Peter van Rensch, Mat Collins, Gabriel Vecchi, Axel Timmermann, Agus Santoso, Michael J. McPhaden, Lixin Wu, Matthew H. England, Guojian Wang, Eric Guilyardi & Fei-Fei Jin
Nature Climate Change volume 4, pages111–116(2014)
https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2100
Abstract
Quote
El Niño events are a prominent feature of climate variability with global climatic impacts. The 1997/98 episode, often referred to as ‘the climate event of the twentieth century’1,2, and the 1982/83 extreme El Niño3, featured a pronounced eastward extension of the west Pacific warm pool and development of atmospheric convection, and hence a huge rainfall increase, in the usually cold and dry equatorial eastern Pacific. Such a massive reorganization of atmospheric convection, which we define as an extreme El Niño, severely disrupted global weather patterns, affecting ecosystems4,5, agriculture6, tropical cyclones, drought, bushfires, floods and other extreme weather events worldwide3,7,8,9. Potential future changes in such extreme El Niño occurrences could have profound socio-economic consequences. Here we present climate modelling evidence for a doubling in the occurrences in the future in response to greenhouse warming. We estimate the change by aggregating results from climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 (CMIP3; ref. 10) and 5 (CMIP5; ref. 11) multi-model databases, and a perturbed physics ensemble12. The increased frequency arises from a projected surface warming over the eastern equatorial Pacific that occurs faster than in the surrounding ocean waters13,14, facilitating more occurrences of atmospheric convection in the eastern equatorial region.

Historical change of El Niño properties sheds light on future changes of extreme El Niño
Bin Wang, Xiao Luo, Young-Min Yang, Weiyi Sun, Mark A. Cane, Wenju Cai, Sang-Wook Yeh, and  View ORCID ProfileJian Liu
PNAS November 5, 2019
https://www.pnas.org/content/116/45/22512
Abstract
Quote
El Niño’s intensity change under anthropogenic warming is of great importance to society, yet current climate models’ projections remain largely uncertain. The current classification of El Niño does not distinguish the strong from the moderate El Niño events, making it difficult to project future change of El Niño’s intensity. Here we classify 33 El Niño events from 1901 to 2017 by cluster analysis of the onset and amplification processes, and the resultant 4 types of El Niño distinguish the strong from the moderate events and the onset from successive events. The 3 categories of El Niño onset exhibit distinct development mechanisms. We find El Niño onset regime has changed from eastern Pacific origin to western Pacific origin with more frequent occurrence of extreme events since the 1970s. This regime change is hypothesized to arise from a background warming in the western Pacific and the associated increased zonal and vertical sea-surface temperature (SST) gradients in the equatorial central Pacific, which reveals a controlling factor that could lead to increased extreme El Niño events in the future. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models’ projections demonstrate that both the frequency and intensity of the strong El Niño events will increase significantly if the projected central Pacific zonal SST gradients become enhanced. If the currently observed background changes continue under future anthropogenic forcing, more frequent strong El Niño events are anticipated. The models’ uncertainty in the projected equatorial zonal SST gradients, however, remains a major roadblock for faithful prediction of El Niño’s future changes.

Higher frequency of Central Pacific El Niño events in recent decades relative to past centuries
Mandy B. Freund, Benjamin J. Henley, David J. Karoly, Helen V. McGregor, Nerilie J. Abram & Dietmar Dommenget
Nature Geoscience volume  12
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0353-3
Abstract
Quote
Niño events differ substantially in their spatial pattern and intensity. Canonical Eastern Pacific El Niño events have sea surface temperature anomalies that are strongest in the far eastern equatorial Pacific, whereas peak ocean warming occurs further west during Central Pacific El Niño events. The event types differ in their impacts on the location and intensity of temperature and precipitation anomalies globally. Evidence is emerging that Central Pacific El Niño events have become more common, a trend that is projected by some studies to continue with ongoing climate change. Here we identify spatial and temporal patterns in observed sea surface temperatures that distinguish the evolution of Eastern and Central Pacific El Niño events in the tropical Pacific. We show that these patterns are recorded by a network of 27 seasonally resolved coral records, which we then use to reconstruct Central and Eastern Pacific El Niño activity for the past four centuries. We find a simultaneous increase in Central Pacific events and a decrease in Eastern Pacific events since the late twentieth century that leads to a ratio of Central to Eastern Pacific events that is unusual in a multicentury context. Compared to the past four centuries, the most recent 30 year period includes fewer, but more intense, Eastern Pacific El Niño events.




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