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Messages - ArcticMelt2

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: Today at 06:22:26 PM »
Worldview NASA hints about that the Northern Sea Route might have opened up today. Anyone who can confirm or refute that?
The image says yes, but who makes it official?

The official opening will be only in August.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/northeast-passage-to-open-in-mid-august-northwest-passage-expected-to-open-in-mid-september/




But the real opening happened as early as in 2011.


https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1156567447228637184

Quote
Periods during the satellite era when the Arctic Ocean has been passable without the use of ice-breaking ships.

Such periods have become much more common since 2008, and the start of the 2019 season is the third earliest in the satellite record.


2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: Today at 08:53:39 AM »
Black ice north of the New Siberia islands. The long-lived anticyclone overheats the ice with sunlight.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: Today at 08:28:20 AM »
https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1282866573108101121

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The extreme event near Siberia continues to unfold - summer 2020 is already a memorable year in the #Arctic...


4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 13, 2020, 05:00:24 PM »
Large areas with a low ice concentration appeared in the Beaufort Sea.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 13, 2020, 11:10:23 AM »
https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1282347875121258501

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Dramatic decrease this week in Chukchi Sea #seaice extent in @NSIDC  data with the largest decreases on the Chukotka side. Beaufort Sea ice melt remains slow and extent is above 1981-2010 average, though ice is gradually clearing from the the coast.


6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 11, 2020, 12:11:15 PM »
Today’s image of the northern coast of Taimyr. Two narrow ice barriers are the last thing that separates the NorthEastern passage from full opening. 20 days earlier than in 2012.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 09, 2020, 06:38:16 PM »
Has there ever been a series of numbers like this before? I'm too lazy to look through the historical data. I may load it all into a SQL database to run some queries.

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 09, 2020, 11:48:44 AM »
https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1280869972713996289

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No improvement to #Arctic sea ice conditions around Siberia. The record early loss continues...



https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1280904696366985221

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#Arctic-wide #seaice extent from @NSIDC passive microwave data for July 07 is lowest in the satellite era. However, Alaska is not playing along. Combined ice extent in Beaufort & Chukchi Seas is highest since 2013 & just below the long term average. #akwx @Climatologist49 @ZLabe


9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 07, 2020, 12:37:42 PM »
So inspite of not having those relentless compacting winds extent and area have still plummeted.

I expect them to slow some while melt will vigorously continue all over.

I doubt the slowdown, now the peripheral seas are melting most actively, and there is a large excess of ice.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2975.msg271841.html#msg271841

NSIDC Area & Extent - some observations.

The contrast is even wider between the 7 Peripheral Seas and the 7 seas of the High Arctic.

High Arctic Extent has been lowest in the satellite record every day since June 18.
Peripheral Arctic Extent is currently 14th lowest

High Arctic Area has been in the lowest 4 in the satellite record every day since June 18, and is currently lowest.
Peripheral Arctic Area is currently 12th lowest

Obviously, up until now this has been very much to do with the Kara, Laptev & ESS. But in the last 2 days a new development (see next post if I am still awake).

10
Science / Re: Satellite News
« on: July 06, 2020, 07:46:16 PM »
Could ICESAT-2 replace the traditional NSIDC stats?

It seems IceSat2 uses lasers and does not see anything through the clouds.

It may be better for NOAA to make small satellites with radiometers that will measure the area of ice every hour, and not once a day.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 06, 2020, 06:28:41 PM »

I attach a table of measurement uncertainties from a research letter  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf52c

To be sure of a new record low ideally several days a few tens of thousands of Km2 below the current minimum are needed to be sure. The current sensors have their limitations, but one must be grateful they exist at all. The NSIDc and JAXA instruments are well beyond their design life and as yet no announcements of compatible replacements to maintain the continuous 41 year record.

Thank you, Gerontocrat.  I understand better now.  It is sobering to think that we may be having thrill flights for the uber-rich up into space soon, and yet we might not be sending anything up there to replace the NSIDC and JAXA instruments.

Answered in another thread
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2750.msg272161.html#msg272161

12
Science / Re: Satellite News
« on: July 06, 2020, 06:23:18 PM »
My last post was deleted due to offtopic (?), so I answered in another thread.

Quote from: Gerontocrat
The current sensors have their limitations, but one must be grateful they exist at all. The NSIDc and JAXA instruments are well beyond their design life and as yet no announcements of compatible replacements to maintain the continuous 41 year record.

Thank you, Gerontocrat.  I understand better now.  It is sobering to think that we may be having thrill flights for the uber-rich up into space soon, and yet we might not be sending anything up there to replace the NSIDC and JAXA instruments.

You are incorrectly informed. JAXA firmly intends to launch into space a replacement AMSR2, AMSR3, around 2023.

This spring there was even news that the manufacturer of the new satellite was selected.

https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Mitsubishi_Electric_to_build_GOSAT_GW_satellite_to_study_atmospheric_and_hydro_cycles_999.html

In the near future, we will only lose NSDIC data. They are low resolution, and now are of little value.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 06, 2020, 04:40:04 PM »
https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1280136370845958145

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Comparing 2020 and 2012 sea ice extents in the Laptev Sea (near Siberia; #Arctic)


14
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 05, 2020, 10:38:41 PM »
The NSIDc and JAXA instruments are well beyond their design life and as yet no announcemets of compatible replacements to mantain the continuous 41 year record.

https://www.wmo-sat.info/oscar/satellites/view/752
Quote
Satellite: GOSAT-GW (2022 - 2027)

 The MW radiometer, AMSR-3, will be a follow-on of AMSR-2 being flown on GCOM-W, with addition of channels at 10.25 GHz, 165.5 GHz and in the 183 GHz band.

And with the original data NSDIC is really nearing completion.
https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/888809735830425600
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/13/49/2019/

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 05, 2020, 09:38:15 PM »
So far May/June of 2020 is the warmest on record between 70-90N.

And even tho we are only 3 days into July.  The start is a straight MEGA TORCH.

AND THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE MEGA TORCH TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 11/12TH WHEN WE DROP BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL..

It's not a wonder why area and extent have dive bombed.  And this is without a dipole.

According to these data, in reality, 2020 is warmer than 2012 in the Central Arctic in the first half of summer. Why, then SMOS shows more melting in 2012?

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 05, 2020, 08:56:51 PM »
https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1279831110608842753/photo/1

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Great view Saturday afternoon from NOAA-20, image courtesy @uafgina. Unusually clear skies over NW Alaska show dramatic but typical diffs in #seaice around Utqiaġvik: ice remains east of Pt. Barrow. Inland, ice remains on lakes north of 70.5N.


17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 05, 2020, 06:47:39 PM »
https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1279818749621624832

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Sea ice extent in the Chukchi Sea remains near the 1981-2010 average in @NSIDC  data but fell quite a bit the past week. Open water now along the Alaska coast all the way to Pt. Barrow. Ice loss in the Beaufort Sea progressing but slow.


18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 05, 2020, 06:22:46 PM »
https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1279777745208143872

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#Arctic air temperature rank by month over the satellite era - 2020 is the 2nd highest June on record in this analysis


19
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 05, 2020, 06:01:32 PM »
2 or 3 more days of very high extent losses could also make extent #1.
[/i]

Wouldn't this be extent remaining #1, Gerontocrat?  Or did I mistake the meaning?

in all tables averaging over 5 days

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 05, 2020, 05:30:51 PM »
It is alleged that the the earliest opening Northeast Passage of the sea route off the coast of Siberia happened in 2012. How true is this?

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165232X15001743

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Changes in sea ice conditions along the Arctic Northeast Passage from 1979 to 2012

As a result of decreasing multiyear sea ice, thinning ice and delayed freeze-up, the spatially averaged length of open period (ice concentration < 50%) increased from 84 days in the 1980s to 114 days in the 2000s and reached 146 days in 2012.

https://global.weathernews.com/news/12647/



Distribution of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean (as of June 28th, 2019) and past open periods of shipping passages (green) and predicted open periods for 2019 (red/yellow)

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 05, 2020, 03:01:05 PM »
Looking at Aluminium's invaluable animation playing over a few times, it looks like the clockwise rotation of the ice pack, perhaps resulting from the nascent anticyclone, and the consequent Coriolis-Effect-driven compaction of the ice pack may already be taking place.  So, props to grixm, gandul etc.

Along with general melting, this would help explain the recent dramatic drops in extent in the Central Arctic Sea.  Not so sure how it explains the drop in area though...  And again, if there is significant meltponding in the central ice, wouldn't that show up as consistent patches?

You can also see the average ice drift pattern over the past three days. Well see how the ice moves around the incipient anticyclone.

The most significant effect is that the warm air masses from the Kara Sea penetrate north, and expand the depression in the ice. As can be seen in the animation of Aluminum, this recess has greatly expanded over the past and now has reached 82.5 degrees north latitude.

So I was wrong when I said that the Kara Sea is of little importance for summer melting. In fact, it strengthens the warm masses moving towards the Central Arctic from the Atlantic.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 05, 2020, 12:53:23 PM »
Сan see how quickly the large ice floe of fast ice 30 km in size disappears into the Laptev Sea.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 05, 2020, 11:51:35 AM »
June 30 - July 4.

The Northeast passage is close to early open. When is the earliest opening of this passage?

One of the last ice barriers in the Kara Sea is practically open.

Image from today:

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 05, 2020, 11:45:53 AM »
Melting is increasingly shifting to the Atlantic side. As shown in the topic about SMOS yesterday. This is not surprising because apparently the main heat transfers in the spring were north of the Kara Sea.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 05, 2020, 11:38:42 AM »
June 30 - July 4.

The Northeast passage is close to early open. When is the earliest opening of this passage?

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: SMOS
« on: July 04, 2020, 07:59:48 PM »
We again caught up with 2012.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: SMOS
« on: July 04, 2020, 07:54:55 PM »
Today, by the way, the region not subject to melting has practically disappeared. As in 2012.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: SMOS
« on: July 04, 2020, 07:49:22 PM »
I wrote some code to take weekly averages of the SMOS images, to reduce the daily noise and fluctuations in those images. 

The left image below shows the average for the past week, 27 June to 3 July 2020.  For comparison, the right image shows the same period in 2012.

Can you average from the beginning of June? Thank you in advance.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 04, 2020, 05:22:34 PM »
If you believe the picture from the Neven site, now 2020 is ahead of 2014 by a week in the Laptev Sea.



And the anomaly in the water temperature in the Laptev Sea in 2014 was much less.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 04, 2020, 04:13:43 PM »
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2020/07/laptev-sea-lapping-up-the-heat-in-june/

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The Siberian heat wave continued into June with a record high temperature in Verkhoyansk, just north of the Arctic Circle. The heat also affected the Laptev Sea, where ice extent dropped to a record low for this time of year. Sea ice extent was low overall in the Arctic Ocean, though not at record levels. Late June into early July is the period of most rapid ice loss in the Arctic.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/1999/07/Figure4a.png

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Figure 4a. This graph shows Laptev Sea ice extent for May 1 through July 31 for the 1979 to 2019 median (black) as well as the sea ice extent for May 1 through June 30, 2020 (red). Extent is shown in thousands of square kilometers. The graph also includes the 25 percent and 75 percent quartiles (gray), and the minimum and maximum sea ice extent (dashed black).


Quote
Sea ice extent in the Laptev Sea was at record low from June 19 through the end of the month. With the early opening of the Laptev Sea, ocean sea surface temperatures (SST) have already risen up to 4 degrees Celsius (7 degrees Fahrenheit) above freezing, according to NOAA SST data provided by the Upper layer Temperature o the Polar Oceans (UpTemp0) buoy site (Figure 4b). River runoff may also be contributing to the warm surface waters in the region.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 04, 2020, 03:56:53 PM »
The difference with 2014 increased to 130 thousand km2 (data NSDIC Extent).

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 04, 2020, 03:45:44 PM »
The Laptev Sea yesterday reduced the Extent ice by almost 100 thousand km2 according to data NSDIC.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 04, 2020, 01:44:48 PM »
Last June is the third among the warmest in the Arctic. But in general, the cold season is hardly among the top ten. So it is not surprising that PIOMAS continues to show only 4th place, and the Beaufort Sea is close to the norm.

34
Permafrost / Re: Arctic wildfires and their effect on sea ice
« on: July 04, 2020, 01:04:59 PM »
Smoke from Siberian fires reached the North Pole.

In addition, forecasts say that soot from this cloud has fallen completely in the Central Arctic.

https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/cams/aerosol-forecasts

35
Permafrost / Re: Arctic wildfires and their effect on sea ice
« on: July 04, 2020, 12:27:23 PM »
https://twitter.com/AntjeInness/status/1279018054106722304

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We see good agreement between total column CO fields from @CopernicusECMWF  #AtmosphereMonitoring Service @ECMWF  and #S5P #TROPOMI data that also show elevated CO over the polar regions on 2 July 2020.

6:44 PM · July 3 2020.·Twitter Web App


36
Permafrost / Re: Arctic wildfires and their effect on sea ice
« on: July 04, 2020, 12:17:20 PM »
Smoke from Siberian fires reached the North Pole.

https://twitter.com/m_parrington/status/1278591899763388416

2:30 PM · July 2 2020.·Twitter Web App

Quote
A long smoke plume from #Siberia #wildfires was predicted to reach the North Pole in forecasts of aerosol optical depth & total column carbon monoxide initialized at 00z on 1 July 2020 from the #Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service




37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 04, 2020, 09:15:33 AM »
Area with low ice concentration continues to grow in size

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 03, 2020, 09:12:50 PM »
It is also interesting that the minimum ice extent a in the Laptev Sea falls in 2014 (data NSDIC extent).

1. 2014    887 km2
2. 2018   9031 km2
3. 2013  11830 km2
4. 2011  14157 km2
5. 2012  21509 km2

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 03, 2020, 07:38:22 PM »

I think some people will take issue with a forecast that shows large parts of the CAB with no top melt during sunny weather at peak insolation.

Yes, the camera at the North Pole often showed melting ponds.



Example

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2013/08/

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2013/08/Figure41-350x371.png

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Figure 4. These comparison images show the North Pole Web Cam on July 25, 2013 (top), and July 30, 2013 (bottom).

Quote
First, the webcam is not at the North Pole. Because of the drift of the ice, as of this week it is actually located at about 84 degrees North near the prime meridian. Second, the so-called lake is nothing more than a large summer melt pond atop the ice cover, and is not, as some have said, a hole or a polynya in the ice cover. While quite extensive by July 26, the pond appears to have largely disappeared by July 30, by draining off the sea perhaps through a fracture, followed by a dusting of snow.

Can you share a link to these forecasts? I'd be interested in checking them out.

https://psl.noaa.gov/forecasts/seaice/

Snow Ice -> Ice Melt Terms

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 03, 2020, 06:11:47 PM »
https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1279081395554357248

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Sea surface temperatures will continue to rise along the Siberian coast due to the unprecedentedly early loss of #Arctic sea ice in this region ---> dark water absorbing sunlight + recent heatwave


41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 03, 2020, 05:56:04 PM »
If you have a lot of free time, then look at the situation in the summer of 2008, when there are detailed published data.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2008/08/


More similar data

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2013/09/

Quote
During the summer of 2013 there were six ice mass balance buoys deployed in the Arctic over a wide area (red dots in Figure 5). The buoys were deployed in undeformed, multiyear ice, with a thickness between 2.2 and 3.5 meters (7 and 11 feet) before melt began. Data from the buoys show that the amount of surface ice melting ranged from 0 in the central Arctic, to 75 centimeters (30 inches) in the Beaufort Sea. Bottom melting varied from 8 to 108 centimeters (3 to 43 inches). The largest amount of bottom melting was observed at a buoy near the ice edge in the Beaufort Sea. This buoy had the largest total amount of melt, thinning from 339 centimeters (133 inches) in early June, to 157 centimeters (62 inches) on August 28. Ice thicknesses at the other buoys on August 28 ranged from 121 to 267 centimeters (48 to 105 inches). While bottom melting is continuing in some locations, most of this year’s surface melting has occurred. Data from the ice mass balance buoys are available at http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil. (Thanks to Jackie Richter-Menge and Don Perovich at the Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory [CRREL] for this part of the discussion.)

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2000/09/figure5-350x286.png

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Figure 5. This map of the Arctic shows results from six ice mass balance buoys that operated throughout the summer of 2013. A red dot denotes each buoy position on August 28, 2013. The red bars indicate the total amount of summer surface melt and the yellow bars show bottom melt. The white background is the MASIE ice extent on August 28, 2013 mapped on Google Earth.

Credit: NSIDC courtesy Jackie Richter-Menge and Don Perovich/CRREL


It is clearly seen that many such buoys in the Arctic usually unfold, a year after the catastrophic melting. And when nothing interesting happens in the Arctic, there is no funding, no buoys.  :-X


P.S. Data for 2011

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2011/08/

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 03, 2020, 05:36:32 PM »

Questions:
Am I correct in thinking that this high pressure system, if it indeed causes mostly clear skies at peak insolation, all while the ice is highly preconditioned compared to other years, will show its effects mostly in August when bottom melt takes over? As in 2012 when the ice losses in the CAB just kept going down and down? while other years levelled off in August?

Am I correct in remembering that this kind of sunshine can cause up to 5cm/day of top melt? So this week long HP could melt 30cm off of wide swaths of the ASI?

If the water under the ice warms up, how much ice starts melting per day? 0.5cm? 1cm? Do we know how fast bottom melt was going in other years, when there were still buoys in the ice measuring such things?

My guess is if 20-30cm melts off the top over the next week, and bottom melt removes 30-60cm off the bottom of the ice over the next 7 or so weeks, there will not be much ice left by volume, and like Friv was saying, the main effect of this HP is going to be on volume. The ice by August will be dispersed slush in a lot of areas.

So if A) this HP does stay relatively clear of clouds, and then B) in August there is some wind bringing waves to the slush and bringing heat up from lower layers of water, there might in fact be much more melting in August than previous years.


If you have a lot of free time, then look at the situation in the summer of 2008, when there are detailed published data.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2008/08/

Quote
The buoys are deployed as part of the North Pole Environmental Observatory, the Beaufort Gyre Observatory, and the DAMOCLES project. The buoy data have indicated increased amounts of melt on the underside of the ice cover in recent years; bottom melt last year was particularly extreme.

The pattern for 2008 has been more mixed. The ice at some buoy locations has thinned by more than a meter through the melt season because of strong melt both on the surface and the underside of the ice. Other locations show strong thinning caused by surface melt, while only modest thinning is apparent in others. Differences in surface melt from location to location reflect factors such as air temperature, the ice albedo, and cloud conditions. The wide range in bottom melt points to variations in the amount of ocean heat absorbed. In recent days, the buoys have indicated sub-freezing temperatures with surface melt coming to an end; however, bottom melt will continue for at least two to three more weeks and the ice extent decline, while slowing, will also continue.

http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20080825_Figure4.png

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Figure 4. Ice thickness measurements for summer 2008 indicate melt at the ice surface (red) versus the underside (yellow). This image shows changes in ice thickness at buoy locations (white circles), overlaid on the NSIDC sea ice concentration field for August 20. The numbers above each bar plot indicate total ice thickness at the beginning of the melt season compared to August 20.


You can see MODIS images for 2008, weather data for 2008, and compare with the current situation.

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 03, 2020, 03:33:00 PM »
Back to to the NSIDC comparison tool just to provide a little more visual information here re recent posts, while wholly respecting the correlation analysis, Arctic Melt.  It is striking to me how similar the ice distributions are in 2014 and 2020 on July 1 (the date the tool made me choose).  But the extent to which the Siberian side, the Laptev and the Kara, have melted out this year still stands out visually vs. even compared with 2014. 

Thanks for the informative diagram.

BTW: Does early melting of the Kara significantly affect general dynamics of melting in the CAB?

I think the Kara Sea has little effect on the amount of summer melting. On the contrary, the Beaufort Sea and the Laptev Sea are key seas, due to the general picture of ice drift Beaufort cycle.

At the moment, the Laptev Sea is leading in all types of regional graphs (extent or area), unlike the Beaufort Sea its ice cover is close to long-term average values.

https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 03, 2020, 02:24:56 PM »
In 2014, there was weak melting (minimum about 5 million km2), although the edge of sea ice receded to 85 degrees.

In general, there was only 5 years when the ice edge receded to 85 parallel: 2007, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2016.

So the current melting season will in any case be one of the worst.
2014 was a pretty cold season in general, with slow melting and a central high in July that was pretty weak, allowing for a constant fog that protected the ice.
With the strong subsidence predicted I don't see the same behavior this year. But who knows, if the high perpetuates and morphs into a weak persistent high we may see the same sort of protection, but I don't think so.

Yes, of course, 2014 looks weaker than 2020 in the Laptev Sea. For example, is fast ice in mouth of the Khatanga River and the Strait of Cape Chelyuskin. Then probably the southern wind played a big role. Nevertheless, this is a vivid example that the rapid melting of ice in the Laptev Sea is not a guarantee of a record in September.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 03, 2020, 01:21:16 PM »
In 2014, there was weak melting (minimum about 5 million km2), although the edge of sea ice receded to 85 degrees.

In general, there was only 5 years when the ice edge receded to 85 parallel: 2007, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2016.

So the current melting season will in any case be one of the worst.

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 03, 2020, 01:06:03 PM »
IMO the day-over-day change in Laptev viewable in EOSDIS indicates the impending situation will result in 2020 taking a mile-long lead.

The ice edge is retreating.... extremely quickly. Collapsing may be a better term. The ATL front is collapsing, but the more significant extent and area hammer may soon be all the FYI in the Beaufort and Chukchi which also looks like it is about to give out (or in 30-45 days rather). On satellite this huge area of FYI has now gone very grey and HYCOM indicates it is pretty thin, like a bit over a meter in general.

It must be noted that both Laptev and Kara have almost fully melted as of 7/1. An unprecedented situation. The moat has been crossed, the wall has been breached, the CAB is open for assault from two new directions at peak insolation under most GHG forcing in the modern era combined with a lack of airplane and aerosol-driven clouds relative to normal years.

The year over year comparison is shocking, lol. Laptev just went poof!

I completely agree. Now I’ve looked at the state of the Laptev Sea on July 1, 2012, and it is simply incomparable with the current situation.

This year is most likely to break the 2012 record among any of the last 8 years.

But yesterday, all the same, doubts arose that the 2012 record would be broken. On the second place by the minimum ice extent in the Laptev Sea on July 1, not 2012, 2014 (data NSDIC extent):

2006 776480
2007 652207
2008 834249
2009 648506
2010 683053
2011 658762
2012 742400
2013 668217
2014 551100
2015 805037
2016 863015
2017 776601
2018 645472
2019 599350
2020 498466

2014 is only 50,000 km2 behind 2020. In 2014, there was weak melting (minimum about 5 million km2), although the edge of sea ice receded to 85 degrees.

So fortunately, the 2012 record this year is not in danger. Most likely the forecast according to SMOS for June is the most accurate.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2341.100.html

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The June monthly average has a good correlation with the September NSIDC sea ice extent.  The correlation coefficient is 0.86 over 2010-2019  (and even 0.95 if 2010 is excluded).  FWIW, this would give a prediction for the September 2020 NSIDC extent of 4.49 +/- 0.52 million km2 (95% prediction interval).


47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 03, 2020, 09:14:27 AM »
To the north of the Laptev Sea, an area of low ice concentration grows.

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 02, 2020, 07:42:31 PM »
https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1278718717216452608

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Chukchi Sea average daily #seaice extent in June from @NSIDC  data was the highest since 2017, but still well below pre-2000  levels. #akwx


49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 02, 2020, 07:12:34 PM »
IMO the day-over-day change in Laptev viewable in EOSDIS indicates the impending situation will result in 2020 taking a mile-long lead.

The ice edge is retreating.... extremely quickly. Collapsing may be a better term. The ATL front is collapsing, but the more significant extent and area hammer may soon be all the FYI in the Beaufort and Chukchi which also looks like it is about to give out (or in 30-45 days rather). On satellite this huge area of FYI has now gone very grey and HYCOM indicates it is pretty thin, like a bit over a meter in general.

It must be noted that both Laptev and Kara have almost fully melted as of 7/1. An unprecedented situation. The moat has been crossed, the wall has been breached, the CAB is open for assault from two new directions at peak insolation under most GHG forcing in the modern era combined with a lack of airplane and aerosol-driven clouds relative to normal years.

The year over year comparison is shocking, lol. Laptev just went poof!

I completely agree. Now I’ve looked at the state of the Laptev Sea on July 1, 2012, and it is simply incomparable with the current situation.

This year is most likely to break the 2012 record among any of the last 8 years.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 02, 2020, 05:20:58 PM »
https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1278436161602584577

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Overall June average temperatures around Alaska were not too far from normal in most areas. The major exception was in western Alaska, where areas were decidedly on the warm side. Some cool spots southeast mainland and the Panhandle. #akwx



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June and late spring #akclimatehighlights include western Alaska with above normal temperatures & unusually large tundra wildfires. Panhandle & eastern Interior quite rainy but Aleutians dry. Thunderstorms were frequent during June but rains limited wildfires. #akwx
@AlaskaWx



https://twitter.com/Pat_wx/status/1278420735485194240

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An interesting striped pattern for the June temperature anomalies in #Canada, with a warmer-than-normal South and Arctic, and cooler in between. Warmest June since 2006 for St. John's! #wxtwitter #climate


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