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Messages - petm

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 14
1
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 10, 2019, 06:03:20 AM »
https://www.axios.com/wilbur-ross-alabama-noaa-trump-tweet-hurricane-906916f7-8ba9-4053-a8df-3d7e8f52c1c3.html

Nothing coming out of NOAA or any other government agency can be trusted while Trump remains in office.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 10, 2019, 05:43:58 AM »
Sep 3 - 9

5-day per-pixel minimum v. original Bremen concentration

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 10, 2019, 04:36:31 AM »
Massive Beaufort melt this season (still continuing). Is this part of a trend or unprecedented?

https://go.nasa.gov/318XEDf

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Forecast Graphics
« on: September 10, 2019, 04:03:19 AM »
Good job on making this thread Freegrass. :)

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: September 09, 2019, 06:29:16 AM »
Indeed, MYI is already largely a thing of the past...


6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 09, 2019, 06:09:29 AM »
States what? Edit: Ah, no worries. I'm pissed off and seeing red too. Hard to focus with so many *&^% bombs landing every which way... :)

In other news, I'm starting to wonder if early maxima may not become more common in the future: We have apparently already crossed the warming threshold for peripheral melt in the shallow seas to become a yearly phenomena, and to occur earlier and earlier. Conversely, the threshold for yearly melting in the deep CAB takes an extra ? years, and in the meantime, the CAB melt is more or less dependent on the seasonal weather. So in years like this, with protective late-season weather, the peripheral melts out completely earlier and earlier, while the central basin clings on...

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: Slater's thread
« on: September 09, 2019, 06:06:05 AM »
Turns out that Slater overestimated extent loss this year relative to observation. Odd rapid breaking pattern in the end-of-season metrics, very likely not illustrative of the heat accumulated in the system. Not quite sure what to make of it.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 09, 2019, 05:57:54 AM »
Fwiw, the NOAA ESRL model thinks there is very little either bottom freeze or melt at this time. (A bit of freeze farther north, a bit of melt farther south, but both low amplitude.)

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/seaice/
On the left menu bar, go to: "Snow and Ice | Ice Melt Terms".

(Not that I trust NOAA these days, but it seems unlikely that the Trump thought police have started manipulating this model yet.)

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 09, 2019, 05:44:13 AM »
Sep 2 - 8

5-day per-pixel minimum v. original Bremen concentration

10
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 07, 2019, 07:03:37 AM »
https://www.noaa.gov/news/statement-from-noaa

Well, yet another reliable information source bites the dust. It's amazing how weak America is. Can't even survive one imbecile.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 06, 2019, 01:25:21 PM »
Aug 30 - Sep 5

5-day per-pixel minimum v. original Bremen concentration

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 05, 2019, 05:38:24 AM »
Aug 29 - Sep 4

5-day per-pixel minimum v. original Bremen concentration

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: September 05, 2019, 05:04:05 AM »
That's very distressing.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 05, 2019, 04:29:46 AM »
It seems that a lot more ice has melted out in the Beaufort this year than virtually any other year. The only recent year that is maybe worse is 2015. This year is a lot worse than 2012 (notwithstanding the remaining tongue).

Attached: North of Prince Patrick Island (CAA), early Sept 2019, 2015, 2012 (relatively cloud-free days).

https://go.nasa.gov/2LiEJ3r

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 04, 2019, 05:32:48 AM »
Aug 28 - Sep 3

5-day per-pixel minimum v. original Bremen concentration

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 03, 2019, 05:39:19 AM »
Aug 27 - Sep 2

5-day per-pixel minimum v. original Bremen concentration

18
Policy and solutions / Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« on: September 03, 2019, 04:47:37 AM »
Not (directly) caused by climate change, but would definitely impact it if this is anywhere close to true.



19
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: September 03, 2019, 01:01:45 AM »
Cross-posting from basic physics thread.


20
The rest / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: September 03, 2019, 01:00:43 AM »
How soon will Arctic go Trump-free  :P

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: Basic questions about melting physics
« on: September 03, 2019, 12:55:29 AM »
There is a brief discussion of latent heat fluxes (which are clearly well understood by climate scientists) mentioned up-thread in part 2 of this video (@~7 min). The whole video is well worth watching, as are all of the channel's videos. Solid, current climate science explained well in laymen's terms.



PS. Should I move this to a different thread, and where?

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: Basic questions about melting physics
« on: September 02, 2019, 07:35:11 PM »
Are you talking about rolling 1 six after having rolled five sixes already, or rolling 6 sixes after having rolled none? Completely different questions.

Also, wtf?  ??? ;D

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 02, 2019, 04:56:15 PM »
Ghost ice in the Beaufort today.

Indeed. Ice is definitely "$&!^", as someone said.

https://go.nasa.gov/2PBtSWC

It's fantastic how extent and area stalled so dramatically, even while continued melting is apparent (and before refreeze has really started). PIOMAS also has known limitations for thin ice. It seems that, as the ice continues to thin Arctic-wide and the weather goes bonkers in different ways, we don't have any good way to measure actual melt. I imagine this state of affairs could make for a pretty shocking year... eventually. But I'll go out on a limb and predict that it won't be this year.  :P

PS. Re: Freegrass' animations. I think grixm was referring to storage space on the server. I don't know if this is actually a problem, as I've never seen Neven mention it (if so please do). And there are a large number of downloads of Fregrass' products, so I'd suggest he keeps it up!

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 02, 2019, 04:24:53 PM »
Aug 26 - Sep 1

5-day per-pixel minimum v. original Bremen concentration

25
Dropbox?

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 01, 2019, 04:02:16 PM »
Aug 25-31

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 30, 2019, 12:48:23 PM »
Aug 23-29

5d min v original Bremen

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 30, 2019, 12:59:19 AM »
Looks like the pack may finally detach from Svalbard.

Thanks for the great animations uniquorn!

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 29, 2019, 12:13:50 PM »
Aug 22-28

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 28, 2019, 12:00:44 PM »
Beaufort arm is definitely melting, but when large floes are moving at speed a 5day minimum may exaggerate the loss of concentration.

Very much so. Best to look at the original maps for this.

31
The rest / Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« on: August 28, 2019, 11:27:35 AM »
Perhaps a bit of sloppy nomenclature ... such as abstract concepts not belonging in the "natural world" - yes I admit, it's not always easy keeping the arguments straigth!

Perhaps. Or perhaps it reflects a fundamental contradiction in your synthesis. Worth considering, I would suggest.

32
The rest / Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« on: August 28, 2019, 11:22:05 AM »
Secondly, and purely personally, if this attitude expressed in (3) were to become normal, I would no longer want to live in such a world. It's a similar concept of domination over nature that convinced me to give up on christianity when I was about 5. It's also the type of attitude that will, in my view, guarantee societal collapse as a result of a wider ecological collapse.

I agree and unfortunately I think that's just where human nature (the group mentality of H. sapiens) inexorably leads. But as an evolutionary scientist, take hope! We may yet evolve into something better -- in fact we must, or perish. Actually, this is one of the most beautiful evolutionary feedbacks of all. :)

33
The rest / Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« on: August 28, 2019, 11:12:26 AM »
Where did I say that we were outside nature? I may have, but I don't recall doing that since that is not my position.

Here:

culpability and guilt are human, abstract, concepts of no meaning in the natural world.

And more importantly, here:

3) The "rest" of nature has no claim on us or our activities. Evolution is precisely "the survival of the fittest", at the moment we are by far the fittest and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future, the rest of the biosphere can either evolve to be useful to us, or pretty enought that we will want to protect it.

34
The rest / Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« on: August 28, 2019, 11:08:32 AM »
Binntho, you keep contradicting yourself. You say both that we are not outside nature and outside nature. Which is it?

35
The rest / Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« on: August 28, 2019, 11:06:10 AM »
It's convenient how 'it's all natural' nicely wipes the entire species clean of any possible culpability!

Does it?

36
The rest / Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« on: August 28, 2019, 11:00:56 AM »
the rest of the biosphere can either evolve to be useful to us, or pretty enought that we will want to protect it

I agree with your main point that humans are in no way outside of nature or evolution. This part though... either you don't know anything about ecology, or it's a joke.

(And it's worth noting that your (3) fundamentally contradicts your (1) and (2).)

37
The rest / Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« on: August 28, 2019, 10:49:54 AM »
In my view: Evolution by natural selection is over for the human race.
Everytime civilisation humans meet or are discomforted by natural limits, they try and find technofixes. E.g. child mortality, illnesses, immunesystem etc.
Our gene-pool has gotten very polluted in the past 50 years.

I mostly agree. Except for the immune system, which provably continues to rapidly evolve, many areas of human evolution are stalled, notably brain evolution. My point was that selection will resume once civilization collapses.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 28, 2019, 10:26:16 AM »
Aug 21-27

5-day min v. original Bremen concentration

Pacific side partially rebounds after yesterday's retreat. Atlantic side slow advance continues. Asian side no obvious change.

Interestingly, in the Beaufort, the area adjacent to "the tongue" (which itself is becoming rather thin) is approaching zero concentration. Continuous export to the SE Beaufort (where it melts) has taken a toll on this source area. Is the Beaufort the new Greenland Sea?

Also, as noted by Oren, the CAA is on the move.


39
The rest / Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« on: August 28, 2019, 09:30:35 AM »
Neven
I can't imagine that you'd approve of Sagan's dream of an ever expanding Human Race with planet after planet falling victim to our rapacious needs. It's identical to the Capitalist Manifesto demanding growth or death.
The very system that you've railed against for so long. :-\


If we can't satisfy our needs and wants here where we evolved, what makes you believe that we'd do better elsewhere?
Terry

Completely agree with Terry here. That's the correct view :)

I think Carl Sagan was very smart but didn't see his biases, his cultural preconditioning.
Almost noone does.
No calibration with 'outside' (reality) = Thinking 'inside' (the culture bubble).

This assumes that human evolution is over. Of course, it is not.

Aspects may have slowed or stalled, but that will soon be corrected. Keep in mind the time frames involved. Agriculture was invented less than 10 thousand years ago. H. sapiens emerged ~300 thousand years ago. Hominin tool use evolved ~3 million years ago.

The collapse of current civilization is very unlikely to be the end of human evolution. But it will mean the re-emergence of selection. There should be plenty of time (before e.g. the next comet strike) for a more intelligent form of global hominin civilization to evolve -- provided that evolution is capable of producing such, which is by no means certain. But current civilization is merely the first iteration, so it's far too soon to judge.

If, eons from now, future hominins do move to other planets, they will no longer be the same as current humans. By necessity, they will have evolved to no longer destroy the ecosystems they inhabit.

40
The rest / Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« on: August 28, 2019, 02:34:54 AM »
American exceptionalism delusionalism  :o

(I say this as an American. And a Canadian.)

41
The rest / Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« on: August 27, 2019, 07:58:41 AM »
All very true. But it's not the end of the world (yet) ...

Surely not. Life on Earth most likely won't end for another 5+ billion years. :)

http://www.bbc.com/earth/story/20150323-how-long-will-life-on-earth-last

42
The rest / Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« on: August 27, 2019, 07:53:39 AM »
Ecosystem stability is an emergent property of diversity. It doesn't require any sentient actors to be so. Biology is full of such emergent properties. For example, your body is also self regulating (and not due to your consciousness). If it weren't, you couldn't exist. Evolution (and therefore all of life) is an emergent property of the simplest attribute: self-replication.

43
The rest / Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« on: August 27, 2019, 07:44:28 AM »
Truly, H. sapiens has been damaging the ecosystem for ages, but there's a key difference now: the rate. Both due to population / economic growth and technological advance, the damage now is happening at rates orders of magnitude faster than in the past, and accelerating. The Earth is not limitless.

44
The rest / Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« on: August 27, 2019, 07:22:04 AM »
I do not believe that the Earth (or more precisely, the Earth's biosphere) is a "self-regulating and balancing system".

Of course it is. That's exactly what ecosystems are and what evolution creates. Has nothing to do with Gaia, whoever that may be.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/288653935_The_diversity-stability_debate
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fitness_landscape

45
The rest / Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« on: August 27, 2019, 07:08:36 AM »
I see you upped the ante (and elaborated).  :D

I expect a collapse (although it could be more like a century than decades -- no way to know yet).

I'm ambivalent about hoping for it or not. That's a loaded question. If it doesn't collapse *ever* (due to AGW), it means that the global ecosystem didn't collapse, which obviously is fantastic. But if it just takes a long time before it collapses, then quite likely it means *more* ecosystem damage, which obviously is horrible. So on balance I'd rather see it collapse sooner rather than later. After all, we are only 1 species. What right do we have to extinct so many others?

There's also the far less important (in my thinking) question about whether we should want society to continue on in its present form. Despite our utterly amazing material successes, it hardly seems that great...

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 27, 2019, 06:56:52 AM »
Looking more closely at the Alaskan side -- holy carp, it really took a beating! Nothing but mush now in a large area. The extent numbers are very misleading. Shows how weak the ice is, when just one day of moderately bad weather does this.

https://go.nasa.gov/2PhKPFj

(NB: The comparison is from quite a while ago due to clouds. You can see through some areas on some days closer to present, if you poke around.)

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 27, 2019, 06:02:22 AM »
I struggle to reconcile the near-flatlining of some metrics with what I see in Worldview, and particularly what I see in petm & Aluminium's invaluable animated contributions.

Glad they're soothing... ;)

Keep in mind that CAB area does continue to decline, and is easily near-record, competing with only 2012 and 2016, at least by Wipneus' method. Extent is fickle, and in the short-term can have more to do with compaction / dispersal than with the amount of ice present. It has even been suggested that high extent / low area, while not as sexy, may be the worst possible finish vis-a-vis the future health of the pack (by reducing heat escape).

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 27, 2019, 05:48:18 AM »
Aug 20-26

5-day min v. original Bremen

Some reversal of recent trends; expect extent to drop a bit and area to continue dropping. Alaskan side: took a significant hit from the storm yesterday (even though it wasn't big), with both compaction and melt. Asian side: Swiss cheese holes are rapidly expanding -- it wouldn't take much to drop a large area below 15%. Atlantic side: continues stable (minor advance). CAA: doesn't seem to be doing much -- I guess the storm a few days ago, despite significant local effects in some places, was too brief to be reflected much in overall area/extent.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: August 27, 2019, 05:21:42 AM »
Is the reaction between methane and ocean water endothermic?
The direct reaction between methane and water, producing CO2 and hydrogen, is highly exothermic.   
I think that should have been "between methane and oxygen"

Yeah -- must be a typo. Methane certainly does not have an exothermic reaction with water. If it did, there couldn't be methane hydrates (or a livable climate)...

I don't think CH4 and H2O react at all. Methane hydrates entering the water column can either become dissolved methane, bubbles of methane gas, or can remain solid bits of methane hydrate, floating in the water, depending on conditions. There is a recent review by Natalia Shakhova here (maybe too detailed): https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9060251 .

Thanks everyone. I was thinking about slow melt in the ESS.
I think it might have some relation to the general dissolution of gases in water, which I understand to be exothermic at "normal" temperatures.

Wait, is the question about the dissolution of methane gas or solid methane hydrates? Hydrate dissociation is an endothermic process.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 26, 2019, 11:00:14 PM »
And that bomb cyclonic event has suddenly disappeared in 12z model runs today.

Models are being jumpy. Who knows what'll actually come, but the way this season has gone, probably nothing.

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