Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - grixm

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 5
1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 30, 2020, 09:03:38 AM »
Disintegration of fast ice has begun. This is from the Laptev today.


2
Policy and solutions / Re: Bikes, bikes, bikes and more...bikes
« on: May 28, 2020, 06:01:20 PM »
Uber sends thousands of electric bikes to the scrapheap
Quote
Uber is scrapping thousands of electric bikes and scooters worth millions of dollars after selling its Jump unit to mobility start-up Lime earlier this month.

The firm said it decided to “recycle” the older models that Lime didn’t want after concluding that it would be too complicated to give them away due to the maintenance and technical support that they need.

Footage of the distinctive red Jump e-bikes being destroyed at a North Carolina recycling center was shared on social media on Wednesday by user Cris Moffitt, angering bike enthusiasts around the world. ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/28/uber-bikes-scrapped.html

That is infuriating. It should be illegal.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 27, 2020, 07:55:41 PM »
Has anyone seen the Laptev sea today on Worldview? The inner half is so dark, but it almost looks like a camera glitch because the contrast line is so straight and sharp, like that of a giant shadow. But it shows up on all the true color feeds. Is it real?

4
Science / Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: May 27, 2020, 06:28:05 PM »
Perhaps the max has still not arrived. So far this week the average is not far from 418 ppm.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: River ice and Discharge
« on: May 27, 2020, 12:23:57 PM »
The ice in the Gulf of Ob seems to have shattered, meaning that essentially the Ob river is free flowing all the way to the arctic ocean.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May 2020)
« on: May 26, 2020, 10:05:29 PM »
Was there an update for mid-May?

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 26, 2020, 03:59:28 PM »
Apart from Central Siberia snow in Arctic Eurasia is at or above average - especially in Norway/Western Siberia & far eastern Siberia.

There is a comparison with 2000-2019. In addition, the Taymyr Peninsula actually looks darker than in any year since 2000.

By the way, you were a few minutes early to get today's image, which looks even worse.

8
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 24, 2020, 05:54:55 PM »
Looks like a piece broke off today.


9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 24, 2020, 03:04:06 PM »
Lena river delta May 20th vs 24th.

10
More calvings on both fronts

11
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2020 Melting Season
« on: May 21, 2020, 04:41:53 PM »
Did the first honest-to-god melt pond in the Freya glacier webcam pop up today?

12
South of the Laptev over the past 4 days. Click to play

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Melting Season Predictions
« on: May 14, 2020, 06:06:15 PM »
I'm placing my bet at 3.67 Mkm^2 (JAXA)

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: River ice
« on: May 13, 2020, 10:08:08 AM »
After a few days of apparent stalling, the Yenisei river melt is accelerating again, and today we got a very clear picture. Spots of open water is reaching all the way to Dudinka.


15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 11, 2020, 01:23:21 PM »
Surface temps N of 80N stay close to zero because they are far away from the big heated rocks of Siberia and NA. That's why the ice remains there at the September minimum. Transporting enough heat over long distance to the surface of the CAB ice is not a trivial matter.

Transporting air from the south is not the only way the pole can warm up. High pressure areas, like the one being forecast now, causes sinking air, and air warms as it sinks. Which also increases the relevance of the 850 hPA air temperature, because that air is moving downwards toward the surface.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 11, 2020, 11:04:32 AM »
windy.com has a nice feature that allows a user to toggle back and forth between GFS and ECMWF forecast models.

They feature is revealing a substantial difference between the models as it pertains to current warmth penetration into higher latitudes. GFS is showing >0 all the way to the north pole while ECMWF is not showing anything remotely close to that.

Please remember to incorporate an appreciation for a level of uncertainty in the forecasts being presented, particularly when there is strong model disagreement. Those Climate Reanalyzer images are based upon the projections of the GFS model. They are not facts.

I suspect this is mostly due to differences in how the models simulate the air very close to the ground, where temperatures will be mostly capped to max near 0 degrees due to interactions with the ice. The 850 hPa temperature anomaly is a pretty good indication of where the ground temperature anomaly wants to be had it not been for the ice, and if you look at that, the GFS and Euro are very similar in intensity. In fact at some frames the Euro looks even warmer over the pole than the GFS does. Below is the GFS and Euro respectively at +48h.




17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 08, 2020, 09:41:59 PM »
Strong Fram export in the last few days. Meanwhile the ice n the other side of Svalbard is retreating back towards the north.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: May 08, 2020, 09:35:31 PM »
This is sea ice near Utqiaġvik, Alaska, in March, after a storm caused it to pile up. This was written about in NSIDC's newest summary: https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2020/05/storm-damage/

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 07, 2020, 09:48:05 PM »
12z Euro

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: DMI Volume
« on: May 07, 2020, 05:13:51 PM »

Whether DMI hits the top or bottom at the correct time is less interesting than the model's difference between years. If DMI shows that volume bottom one year was lower than another year, that is valuable information regardless of whether that bottom was in August or September. Because even if it is biased, it is biased in the same way, canceling the bias out.

The DMI model changes from year to year. Year to year comparison with DMI is apples to oranges because the models used are different. DMI bias does not cancel.

Source for that? Last time the model was updated AFAIK was 2016. And in the note about this update they say this:

Quote
However, the trend between years is almost unchanged. Thereby, a year with a large sea-ice volume in the old setup also has a large volume in the new setup, and similar for years with low sea-ice volume.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/icetext.uk.php

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: DMI Volume
« on: May 07, 2020, 03:06:16 PM »
Cryosat agrees more with DMI at this time in that it shows that the volume is near or at an all time low, unlike PIOMAS. http://greatwhitecon.info/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/NRT-Vol-2020-04-15B.png

Whether DMI hits the top or bottom at the correct time is less interesting than the model's difference between years. If DMI shows that volume bottom one year was lower than another year, that is valuable information regardless of whether that bottom was in August or September. Because even if it is biased, it is biased in the same way, canceling the bias out.

Therefore, it is important information that DMI shows that the current volume is lower than any other year at this time. It is not infallible, no single model is, but it is a piece of the puzzle that should not be ignored. And doubly so since, as I said, Cryosat also says that the volume is near an all-time low.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 06, 2020, 10:09:24 PM »
It looks like last week has been good for the ice. Volume has increased again.

DMI volume is essentially useless for this sort of purpose. See the DMI thread for details of why it shouldn't be used in this way.

I've read that thread but my takeaway is not that it's "useless" for this. If it shows the volume going down or up, there are good reasons for that. The input data for the model isn't just random noise, it's actual weather, meaning that if conditions for the ice is bad, it will show the volume going down, and if conditions are good, it will show the volume going up. The absolute historical values may not be as accurate as f.ex. PIOMAS due to different design goals, but it's still a working volume model and the trend should not be neglected.

23
Consequences / Re: 2020 ENSO
« on: May 06, 2020, 09:26:52 AM »
Daily index is plummeting to the lowest value in months.

24
It seems no one has posted it yet, but official breakup happened May 3rd, 17:03!

Tor Bejnar, Ranman99 and Sebastian Jones guessed the date correctly. Ranman99 was closest with the time 13:45.

25
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: May 03, 2020, 12:12:25 PM »
Calving of sR1


26
https://yukonriverbreakup.com/

Does this mean its over?

No, I believe it will say the date next to the "Official 2020 breakup" instead of the "...".

It's broken up upstream but the tripod location which I believe is somewhere in this circled area, seems to still be intact.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: River ice
« on: May 02, 2020, 10:16:43 AM »
Yenisei river melt is really ramping up. At this pace it will be free of ice all the way to the arctic ocean in less than two weeks. Gif is the last four days.


28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 01, 2020, 10:34:44 PM »
JAXA thckness

Haven't seen this before, what can we find historical data and how is it calculated?

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 30, 2020, 09:39:28 PM »
Hmmm... 🤔


30
Looks like a breakup has happened upstream, floes are floating freely on the webcam. Can't be long now until it spreads to where the measuring mechanism is located.

31
Another calving between April 27th and now




32
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: April 29, 2020, 11:33:27 AM »
Ok, thanks for the clarification :)

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: April 29, 2020, 09:27:30 AM »
Hm I see that now. But is that deliberate? The last image used to be a spreadsheet comparing daily values, like in this post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2975.msg258560.html#msg258560

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: April 29, 2020, 08:28:45 AM »
gerontocrat: The last few posts your second and fouth images have been identical

35
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2020 Melting Season
« on: April 29, 2020, 08:24:32 AM »
In addition to the lack of snow in general, what I find really remarkable is that in the glacier we can already see areas that are no longer white and it's only on the 28/04. At this date it should be spotless!

click twice to zoom in

It really is odd, not sure what is going on. Although it is discolored, there are no water-filled melting pools as far as I can tell, even though they usually appear before the discoloration does.

After a period of positive temperatures, it will now get cold again for the foreseeable future, so it will be interesting to see if it whitens again. But the sun will keep shining relentlessly so maybe the early drop in albedo will have lasting consequences.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 27, 2020, 07:39:25 PM »
According to Nico Sun's area calculations, we are back in spot #1 today.


37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 26, 2020, 09:49:52 AM »
April 20-25.


Wow, sea ice has hit Bear Island

38
The ice "tongue" in the foreground of the panorama photo broke clean off.

I still have hope for my April 26th guess (today) ;)


39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 24, 2020, 03:09:40 PM »
It looks like the DMI volume may have passed the season maximum.


40
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2020 Melting Season
« on: April 22, 2020, 04:08:35 PM »
It is 7 degrees in Nuuk today.


41
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: April 20, 2020, 07:55:57 PM »
$0.00 a barrel holy fuck what the shit

42
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: April 20, 2020, 09:55:30 AM »
The day has finally come.

F


43
Consequences / Re: 2020 ENSO
« on: April 15, 2020, 06:22:09 PM »
The April ENSO discussion concluded that ENSO-neutral conditions are present. No surprises there, however the Oceanic Nino Index for January-February-March was once again 0.5 C. This is the fourth month in a row, and historically it could be considered a proper El Nino episode if it persists for just one more month. And it is quite likely to do so, because April and March so far has stayed higher than January and February on average.

Quote
El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.

By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.

There is a caveat though, which may prevent the CPC from declaring an El Nino even if the FMA period clocks in at 0.5 C as well:

Quote
CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/-0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.

The models also favor a drop in the index in the near future.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: River ice
« on: April 15, 2020, 05:41:46 PM »
Meanwhile I've been following the Yenisei river on worldview, and the melt is well underway. Here is a timelapse of the last two weeks.

45
Best to add a proper poll to the thread?

Anyway I have no idea but I'll guess April 26th

46
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: April 14, 2020, 12:53:50 PM »
March 2020 surface air temperature anomaly seems to have been 1.18C.  Only behind 2016.

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/index_v4.html

47
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2020 Melting Season
« on: April 13, 2020, 08:14:23 AM »
Melting season has started in Southern Grønland.
www.wetteronline.de presents the following forecast for Narssarssuaq (from 12.-26.4.2020):

NSIDC also showed surface melt on the 11th:


48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 11, 2020, 01:26:38 PM »
I thought this was kind of cool. The low in the Barents sea currently has four mesovortices, creating a kind of fidget-spinner pattern:


49
Antarctica / Re: Thwaites Glacier Discussion
« on: April 11, 2020, 11:33:18 AM »
I've included a one year GIF that shows a significant Northern movement.  It may not seem like much, but the iceberg has been grounded there since 2002 and that much movement in one year has to be a significant change.  The fracture has not yet floated away clear, but it has continued to separate gradually since throughout early April.

How are you making this gif? Manually or is there a tool to do it automatically?

50
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: April 10, 2020, 04:01:59 PM »
More calvings in the north.


Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 5