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Messages - passenger66

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Last year I predicted 2nd lowest extent and lowest ever PIOMAS. August weather proved me wrong. Now I believe in Stephan's graph +/- weather. Given the GAAC maybe 3.75.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 03, 2020, 06:40:48 PM »
It seems to me that most open sea in the ESS, Laptev, Kara, Barents, etc have had almost constant cloud cover lately. Just 2-3 days per location within the last two weeks where the sun has really been able to take advantage of this low albedo. Is this normal for this season or has it been a stroke of luck for the ice? Could it explain the recent stalling in area loss?
I don't believe in negative feedbacks but something is keeping Stephan's graph in a straight line. Could cloudiness be a negative feedback?

The forum / Re: Who would like to take over the ASIF?
« on: April 09, 2020, 10:27:30 PM »
For those who say whoever should not mod because of something from the past is it not worth considering that people are capable of learning from the past? Learning from mistakes is not impossible - I hope growing is always possible.

I obviously did not predict the extent loss slowdown. The consensus seems to be that it is dispersion more than actual melting slowdown. I don't believe in negative feedbacks and Stephan's plot showing a linear decline shows no (non-linear) feedback one way or the other. My thinking is that the northern hemisphere should be trapping more and more heat and the arctic should be retaining less and less cold, so the arctic decline should accelerate. But once again this year it has somehow kept to a linear decline. Obviously there is something I don't understand.

Still guessing 3.5 and record low PIOMAS.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 27, 2019, 10:11:40 PM »
For now it seems so. If area losses continue to be slow, extent will have to slow down later in the season after the rubble ice is gone. But area losses have time to pick up again.
This reflects my guess about the area/extent thing - low concentration extent going away means relatively low area going away (compared to extent).

I guess 3.5 and record low PIOMAS.

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