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Messages - VeganPeaceForAll

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 03, 2020, 12:18:24 AM »
September 1 is one of the year-to-year comparison dates for the U Bremen ASI (from AMSR2) false colour concentration maps, see attached figure. Shown are this year, in the lower right corner, and seven of the previous low years. The other 8 recent years can be seen by clicking the link.

This year, the ice is unusually compact for the date.

When you say it is compact, have you taken all the clouds into account? Lots of cloud cover would give a false impression that the ice is compact, as it would show up with a dark purple colour.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 31, 2020, 11:51:13 PM »
Edit. Last year's article.
Sorry someone shared that one in another group and I assumed it was current.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 22, 2020, 08:09:28 AM »
As you can see on the screenshot from todays Arctic sea ice concentration Bremen map there is plenty of melt also in the CAB.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 20, 2020, 12:30:31 AM »
Regarding the heatwave over Siberia which is has having a big impact on the melt season:

The results showed with high confidence that the January to June 2020 prolonged heat was made at least 600 times more likely as a result of human-induced climate change.
We note that even with climate change, the prolonged heat was a very rare event expected to occur less than once every 130 years.
The results for the town of Verkhoyansk show that the record breaking June temperatures were also made much more likely (upwards of many thousands of times), though there is less confidence in this result.
Combining the values from the models and weather observations shows that for the large region the same six-months hot spell would have been at least 2 degrees Celsius cooler had it occurred in 1900 instead of 2020. For Verkhoyansk, maximum June temperatures increased due to climate change by at least 1 degree compared to 1900.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 09, 2020, 10:53:11 PM »
While extent continues to drop, area has actually stalled for the last 4 days. More draining melt ponds?

The JAXA AMSR2 melt graphics also show a reduction in surface melting in the last few days.  I guess the lack of warm air advection from lower latitudes is playing a role.

The sea ice concentration in the CAB on that picture dated 4/7 is so low because of melt ponding.. So when melt ponds drains, like Blumenkraft above showed they did on satellite pictures, naturally the concentration will be much higher.
I don't think this implies that there is significantly less surface ice melting..

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 09, 2020, 08:59:38 PM »
Almost all of the Arctic basin now is above its freezing temperature (-1.8) for the Average Daytime Air Temperature. Everything outside blue lines on picture is above 0 degrees. Almost all area covered by light-green blue colour (excluding area closest to Greenland) on Pacific side of Arctic is -1.66 degrees or higher temperature.

Picture from NASA Eyes On Earth (application for Windows) attached.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 26, 2019, 11:12:56 PM »
Area increases, thickness still very thin

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 01:11:03 AM »
I think you both can continue to post 1 post a day of videos. It is a good contribution. Make them a size so they don't autoload.
If someone doesn't like them and it really bothers them, this forum has a block feature, were you can select to hide posts from a certain user (then it says post is hidden, click to show).
There have been alot of people posting this season, you can't like what everyone contributes.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 07, 2019, 01:46:56 PM »
September 2-6.
Dispersion is a bitch... but the Beaufort/CAB border looks like the open water gaps froze and that the pack solidified. Area numbers show a >150k (!) rise in the CAB. Start of the actual freezing season? Looking at Worldview, this certainly did not happen, so I am betting these are cloud artefacts that should disappear if/when the clouds move away.
The storm on the Atlantic side is inflating the pack and at the same time bringing a lot of cold and plausibly “sealing” the new openings with snow or even refreeze. It is very cold with constant temperatures under -5C. I think that the area increase comes from that side, and is real.
Clear skies starting to dominate the CAA and the ‘western’ CAB may seem to maintain even over zero temperatures, but in the long nights heat loss will gradually cool down the air and the open water within the polynya. The cooling is apparent from forecasts too.
Next week there’s a final bout of wind as the storm migrates to Siberia. Beyond that (Sep 12)  there’s no more melting season if it hasn’t finished already.

Numbers not backing up your theory. The central Arctic area is decreasing and beautfort area increasing. See the other data thread.
There is still a very strong bottom melt momentum at the Pacific side and the side adjacent to ESS, Laptrev, see petm's pictures.
Most of the cold area is between 4-6.4 degrees Celsius, which is around 2.2-4.6 degrees below the Arctic sea ice freezing point.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: September 04, 2019, 10:15:52 AM »
Here is an animation of the Arctic Basin compared with 2012. Click to start.

That is a very good animation, really shows the bad state of the ice. How do you get the original pictures? Can you send a link?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 25, 2019, 09:29:00 AM »
Some pictures from the ongoing cyclone.
Observing the wind speed and temperature.
Picture 2 and 3 at 1000hPa

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 24, 2019, 12:21:15 AM »
Cyclone moving. This was posted by meteorologist on my feed.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 13, 2019, 08:47:38 AM »
Finally, a slowdown in basin area, just as 2012 overshot the trends. Hopefully, this is not a measurement artefact and will translate to a slowdown in basin extent.

If you look at petm's concentration maps you can see that there is still a strong melt momentum throughout the whole basin.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 02, 2019, 10:10:28 PM »
Something to remember also about the Arctic sea ice melt, e.g. the ice North of Greenland:
""Over the last couple of days, you could see the warm wave passing over Greenland," she said. "That peak of warm air has passed over the summit of the ice sheet, but the clear skies are almost as important, or maybe even more important, for the total melt of the ice sheet."

She added that clear skies are likely to continue in Greenland "so we can still get a lot of ice melt even if the temperature is not spectacularly high."


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 01, 2019, 09:43:29 PM »
Here is altered image from August 8 (slush levels removed). This would represent area of sort of solid ice.

And last image is ice thicker than 1m:

That is very helpful.
How much did the sea ice thickness reduce on average last month. I think it is hard to tell exactly,  but it looks like the thickness decreased approximately 0.5m. It would be amazing if someone could create a program measuring the average ice thickness loss based on the Hycom model and ice volume loss as well.
If this melt rate continues throughout August,  how much ice will there be left by the end of August?
The remaining ice will also be very mobile. What happens if a lot of it blows out to the ice kill zone of Beaufort?

I attach the latest 30 days map.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 29, 2019, 11:47:28 AM »
Here, in this link is a thorough Arctic weather update from meteorologist Nick Humphrey:

(Just an excerpt, read the full update on the link):

Highly anomalous heat from Europe will surge over Greenland surrounding areas Monday, peaking Tuesday-Thursday before decreasing in intensity over the weekend. This will cause a rapid rise in Greenland surface ice melt extent and more rapid Arctic sea ice losses.

Also note a significant cool air mass for late-July/early August will surge across Scandinavia, Eastern Europe and western Russia this week. Sweden, Norway and Finland just saw some of their hottest temperatures on record.


As I showed in my previous Arctic post, in addition to heat causing widespread surface melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet and additional sea ice melting, a Pacific to Atlantic windflow pattern will be favorable to pulling sea ice away from the Canadian Archipelago and north coast of Greenland. Open water is likely to grow north of the coast of Greenland and farther to the West. This is concerning because it means the waters locally can warm significantly and the entire thin ice area will be more vulnerable to cyclones later in August and September.

Full update: Arctic Forecast for Heat Wave This Week

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 26, 2019, 02:11:37 PM »
I think the Hycom sea ice thickness pictures above accurately describes sea ice thickness in areas like Beaufort, ESS, north of Greenland, judging by others' observations/NASA worldview-pictures, etc. posted here the last month.

Looking at the image attached below the ice thickness has been reduced around 1m on average the last 30 days. If this average melt rate continues for one more month, there will not be much ice volume left for the last subsequent period of ice melt.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 19, 2019, 09:14:05 PM »
Yes. It melts incredibly quickly.
Some of it is because of the big heatwave in Nunavat:

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 18, 2019, 02:07:16 PM »
One reason for the very high melt momentum is the temperatures over the Arctic.
This image is from the program 'Nasa eyes on Earth'. Everything within the blue circles is below 0 degrees. However everything on the whole map is above -1.8 C, the melt/freeze temperature of the Arctic. See attached photo.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 16, 2019, 02:08:50 PM »
Bad for the ice surrounding Nunavat, including the CAA (map here: Map over Nunavut):

Expert predicting the heat wave to continue throughout the summer:
""That's what we're seeing more often," Phillips said. "It's not just half a degree or a 10th of a millimetre. It's like hitting a ball out of the ballpark. It is so different than what the previous record was."

More is to come, he predicted.

"Our models for the rest of the summer are saying, 'Get used to it."'"
From: 'This is unprecedented': Alert, Nunavut, is warmer than Victoria

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 09, 2019, 03:11:58 PM »
I have followed this forum for about a month, and read every post. Thank you everyone for contributing, there is a wealth of knowledge.

Here is a couple of animations of how the ice is declining (the first one including a one week forecast as well). The ice melts very quickly, multi year ice disappearing, 2m thick ice turning into 1.5 meter thick ice, 1.5 into 1 meter, 1 meter into 0.5m, etc. It seems like there won't be much ice left at the end of the melt season if this melt momentum continues. Especially with the decrease of albedo, as there will be more and more open sea.


Second image/gif, see this link:

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