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Messages - Oscillidous

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 20, 2019, 09:11:57 PM »
I admire Sarks' ability to speak so vaguely, it's very political. The pictures are helpful but for the lay persons here, it's very confusing and that aside, the ideas aren't very coherent. He isn't a scientist, he is doing this work in his spare time so I'm not at all faulting his character, I just wish he would invest more effort into explaining rather than broadly speaking.

Atmospheric change is a factor that affects melting season, but this is a thread about ice melt exclusively, so anything that doesn't immediately influence that should be quite fairly seen as off topic. There are plenty of other threads to take other topics to.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 20, 2019, 12:30:31 AM »
This is a new look at what is actually happening now that we are in it

I find it fascinating how you always seem to post, yet you never seem to articulate whatever it is you're trying to say. People hardly ever respond, especially posters here who do seem to understand what it its they're saying. Do you just repeat what you read elsewhere?

I mean no disrespect, I just have a hard time understanding the motive

Science / Re: A list of missing feedbacks
« on: August 19, 2019, 10:37:27 PM »
I apologize if this is pedantic, but is that not an understood/implied factor of continued warming? Heat island effect, yatta yatta. Civilization is a heat engine and a warm planet means more energy dedicated to cooling people down. There is no question that this is a positive human feedback to factor in. Crypto-mining is another underestimated source of warming.

Science / Re: The Science of Aerosols
« on: August 19, 2019, 10:20:57 PM »
Regarding this recent paper, I don't know of many other papers exploring the idea that reduced droplet formation in clouds is what is responsible for greater cooling, it's the reflective of the particulates themselves, no? Seems to me the equivalent of saying "good news, fire doesn't cause as much frostbite as previously thought" when obviously no one was even considering the possibility.

The paper in Nature recording localized temperature change over North America 3 days after 9/11 is an example of observed warming as a result from absence of some anthropocentric aerosols, which at least to my laymen understanding seems to be a better analogue for what to expect as a result of reduced industrial output.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 23, 2019, 01:25:38 PM »
I apologize for my ignorance earlier in regards to the Slater data, did not mean to seem sensational, I misinterpreted the graph.

ESS is looking really nasty though.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 23, 2019, 02:53:38 AM »

Slater's 50 Day Lead projects 2019 to be the new low by a good margin. Interesting how quickly things can change.

Developers Corner / Re: Test space
« on: July 19, 2019, 09:14:07 PM »
It's interesting and frightening to imagine that people with an agenda come here to sew discord within the forum. Unfortunately these issues will only worsen the more people who come here.

Developers Corner / Re: Test space
« on: July 19, 2019, 05:59:27 PM »
Your animation can be viewed in Chrome for Android with a bit of scrolling around. I prefer embedded videos so thank you for your efforts.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 19, 2019, 02:37:22 PM »
look again at the animation here,2591.msg214158.html#msg214158

This seems really not good. Can anything put a cork on this? Seems like that whole area where those warm waters have intruded with all factors considered.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 19, 2019, 02:22:30 PM »
unihamburg amsr2-uhh, CAA, jun1-jul18

This is spooky. Is that warm Atlantic water traveling up into the CAA? Seems like a mixture of export and this happening as well in Nares.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 19, 2019, 01:33:26 PM »
I am just happy that the majority seeks to keep the order as is expected by Neven. Nothing shows integrity more than a willingness to set aside emotion, consider controversial ideas and remain divested in the outcome.

My prediction remains: 2nd lowest behind 2012 but it will be irrelevant because refreeze will be delayed and melt season next year will begin prematurely with nothing but puny ice to fare out the season. This season isn't about beating out some arbitrary year for me, it's a tell of a clear and imminent collapse of the ice.

On a somewhat related note, I did some research yesterday and stumbled on some learning materials and peer reviewed papers that may be of interest to folks here:

Arctic Sea Ice, Upper Atmosphere Transport, and Trade Winds lecture from U of California:

Paper on how water vapor and clouds precondition melt seasons for significant ice loss:

Warm‐air advection, air mass transformation and fog causes rapid ice melt:

I am still learning, let me know if you guys think Neven would want this somewhere else, I will remove these. Can't imagine you all haven't seen these papers before, but I thought I'd pay it forward.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 18, 2019, 03:55:39 PM »
more record Canadian heat

Wiki for Churchill. MB says 34.0C is highest for July, I guess one could be pedantic and argue this may be the "earliest" we have had that warmth in July, but it's not the warmest

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 14, 2019, 06:03:08 PM »
If nothing else, this melt season will run a little longer than usual. My guess is 2019 will get 2nd place.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 13, 2019, 02:55:05 PM »
Got to remember a GAC may not lead to a record low if such a deep low hovers around the pole as I don't think it will affect extent all that much if at all but it will definitely increase the dispersion and make the ice around the pole look in a poor state.

Wouldn't increased dispersion in above 0 waters still do a good deal to the ice? As I understood, it was compaction that keeps the ice safe from faster melt.

If a GAC occur at lower latitudes the results could well be different  but I don't think it's conclusive that if a GAC occurs a record low will be likely.

I didn't know this was a factor, so it's only lower latitude pressure systems that are bad for ice?
I don't understand what is causing the anomalous warming in the Pacific, perhaps it has something to do with the jet stream craziness. I don't know if that is seasonally dependent, but it seems like if that were to continue beyond melt season, it would be bad news because anything that would pull that water into the Arctic would likely do some damage.

I don't understand how that water hasn't intruded further into the basin.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 13, 2019, 01:07:32 PM »
I think some for are not considering how close we came to record lows most years post 2012?

Anyhoos, the portly madame hasn't eve entered the building yet never mind started her vocal exercises.......

This is my curiosity too. I thought it was the GAC which did the major damage, haven't we met that level of ice loss without one already? I don't think much will happen in terms of weather conditions this season but I just think that with melt from below and all the energy absorbed by the water, the system has plenty energy to continue to weaken the ice.

I need to change my sig to "then again, I know nothing" because that has been my running qualifier.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 13, 2019, 01:03:53 PM »
Considering the arctic ice extent is on a melting trend and there are graphs such as the death spiral and considering that 2019 is right at the low end and has been the lowest only a day or so ago that anything is possible but lower is not a bad prediction.

There are other sites such as arctic news that has some graphs projecting the first BOE for 2020, there was another "expert" a while back predicting 2016 plus/minus 3 years.

There are a few years on the Jaxa chart that if the lines were shifted to attach to where the 2019 line ends now that would result in a record low!

Using this technique of analysis, I think there is a very good chance 2019 breaks into a new record low extent because of all the AGW factors and also the various natural positive feedback mechanisms.

I am in agreement here, I don't personally care that we see a new low this year, I am seeing the wider implications that this season sets the stage for and I don't see more than 2 years left for the ice, because of amplifying feedbacks. It's a big picture thing, it amplifies every day, every year. This melt season will leave nothing left but weak ice, refreeze will likely start later and melt season will start earlier with nothing but F grade ice to ward off heat.

Then again, I don't know anything, I've only been really watching the ice since 2012, but 2012 seemed exceptional to me as a beginning of what would come, and I think this years' melt season is a taste of the beginning of this shift.

Also, I believe you are referring to the work of Wieslaw Maslowski, he sat down with Guy McPherson (not sure how people feel about him here, I am neutral) and in his view, 2025 is a fair assessment of when we will lose sea ice, but I think that is just conservative estimate seeing as his first prediction was wrong. 

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 vs 2012
« on: July 11, 2019, 10:57:53 PM »
Studies also show that only 10% of population needs to adopt an idea before it catches like wildfire.   While much more than 10% are already aware and concerned about climate, we need to get over the 10% hump of population ready to and take on the large scale systemic change needed ... 95% may act like they aren't listening, but having it in conversation over and over is the way we get to that 10% threshold IMHO.  We gotta try. 

Agreed. I would argue that the biggest issue is that while many know about climate change, they aren't familiar with the rate of change that is occurring. They are under the impression that in 2050 it will be messy, some even believe we don't have to worry until 2100.

My uneducated analysis of this year vs 2012 is that while the amount of ice loss is pretty similar, the overall quality of ice was much better and more resilient to bad conditions in 2012. This year, it looks like the entire pack is slushy and mobile (obviously some pieces being larger than others).

I have a hard time envisioning this season resulting in any substantial rebound of the ice, another big difference from 2012. I think next year's melt season will start earlier and I imagine refreeze will start later this year. The biggest difference with this year vs 2012 is we lost similar amounts of ice without a GAC. Keep in mind though, this is coming from someone who still can't identify a dipole on a geopot chart :x

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 08, 2019, 05:48:42 AM »
Could any of this anomalous warming in the ESS and Alaska be from localized methane emissions? How soon does methane contribute warming once released?

<Edit Neven: Ask questions like this one in the 'stupid' questions thread, or the methane thread.>

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 07, 2019, 08:27:27 PM »
Worried would be a better word than impressed. The trend is clear, it's not a surprise, but the question is always if we have passed some kind of tipping point ore milestone like they said in a company I worked for a few years ago.

Wouldn't the fact that each melt season has resulted in less MYI than the year/s before be an indication that we have passed a tipping point? Please don't take my question wrong, I am genuinely asking.

Also, I am curious if all this weak ice won't take a tumble (echoing what others have said) later this season because it looks to me like the ice is overall weaker than it's ever been.

Hey all, I've been a long time lurker, but I've had some rather silly questions I can't seem to get a definitive answer on.

Firstly, it was recently determined that the effect of aerosol masking has been underestimated by double, but I don't see any paper which gives any temperature value as to how much warming has been avoided. This paper: says we have avoided 2.6K, this is equivalent to degrees C right? And if this is the case, would that mean that 4C or more is in the cards when we lose aerosol masking?

Also, many this year are saying we will tie 2012 or surpass it, but it seems to my ignorant eyes that the ice is overall much poorer in terms of overall rigidity to even really matter if it does or not, because it seems like so much energy is going into the ice that refreeze will start later and melt will start early next season, with nothing but poor ice. Are any others feeling this way, or would it be too early to speak about?

In the event that we do lose sea ice, it would seem to me that there wouldn't be a rebound of the pack as a whole, but rather there would be seasonal diminishing returns of small areas having bits of ice until there is no longer a refreeze. Is this assumption also incorrect?

Finally, to what degree would this bring in terms of warming and how fast do we estimate the warming will occur?

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