Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - blumenkraft

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 68
1
Consequences / Re: Global recession
« on: Today at 10:00:41 AM »
just because they are right wing doesn't mean they aren't right.

That made me laugh way harder than it should...

2
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: Today at 06:53:27 AM »
I have seen this sort of worthless data posted on line to many times already thanks.
 
Quote
NOTE: Number of deaths reported in this table are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period.

*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death.

The bureaucratic delay inherent in such sources makes reference to them meaningless for a month or two yet.

Nice visualization see here >>

From here >> https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/fxau85/the_recent_drop_in_us_pneumonia_deaths_is/

3
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 08, 2020, 09:13:06 PM »
I even said it a bit further down from the “+1”  that:

Quote
As long as there isn't an outbreak anywhere else, we should be good. The threat of Covid-19 for 2020 in the US is over by April, May at most. For the rest of the world varies according to their climate


Wait! So what you are saying here is that you couldn't possibly imagine that there are airplanes, or just people for that matter, going in and out of the region before the virus was considered dangerous? Do i get that right?

4
Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: April 08, 2020, 08:07:35 PM »
... and their grandkids. And theirs. And theirs. And theirs. ...

5
It's officially over!

Bernie Sanders dropped out of the Democratic race.


6
Policy and solutions / Re: Lessons from COVID-19
« on: April 08, 2020, 04:20:32 PM »
El Cid, i was replying to this post:

You can't just "relocate production" of each critical component needed for any emergency that could come up. Things will be produced where they are most effectively produced, else things get very expensive and scarce.

7
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 08, 2020, 03:44:37 PM »

8
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 08, 2020, 03:23:18 PM »
Also, Prof. Dr. Drosten said in yesterday's podcast that crucial chemical reagents needed for testing are going to run low rather soon. Very bad news...

9
Policy and solutions / Re: Lessons from COVID-19
« on: April 08, 2020, 02:39:06 PM »
Comparative advantage means that things are produced where it is most productive.
...
Yes you can stop outsourcing but the price is either smaller quantity or worse quality. or both

So, that implies that only very few companies/countries/societies are inherently able to produce a specific product or provide a special service. Otherwise, this argument ends here, right?

I am so bold to say that if there is a local or regulatory disadvantage it can be accounted for via subsidies or taxation. I don't get how this is not a no-brainer.

This discussion is silly! Of course, almost any country in the world would be able to produce essential medical products and services locally. It's not a question of if, but how. Or willingness for that matter.

And it would obviously improve availability in case of emergency.

10
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: April 08, 2020, 01:17:25 PM »
Quote
There's a lot of research into diesel oil from algae.

Does it work on a large scale? Where are those algae producing reactors fueling millions and billions of cars? Again, can it scale? We don't know! How long does it take to scale? We don't know!

You can't answer this question with an unknown.

It is known though that electricity is able to scale very fast.

Quote
We cannot just flick a switch and go from ICE to batteries

Who sais something about flipping a switch? It will take at least a decade to make the transition to electric cars. Or even longer.

Time is of the essence here.

11
Policy and solutions / Re: Lessons from COVID-19
« on: April 08, 2020, 12:06:43 PM »
If you mean scarcity as in the unavailability of goods, then localized production might actually improve availability.

Exactly. That's what i'm talking about.

12
Policy and solutions / Re: Lessons from COVID-19
« on: April 08, 2020, 11:33:27 AM »
The question is how much of productivity we are willing to sacrifice for resiliency. I think quite a lot when it comes to medical supplies, but probably a lot less for consumer electronics.

No question about that. I one-hundred percent agree. I stated above, that in order to overcome the synergy effects we are losing due to diversifying production we might have to subsidize them.

Perhaps i'm speaking Chinese here but what i was asking is "how would diversifying production contribute to scarcity?"

13
Policy and solutions / Re: Lessons from COVID-19
« on: April 08, 2020, 11:16:42 AM »
Well, that is not addressing my question at all.

How would diversifying production contribute to scarcity?

14
Policy and solutions / Re: Lessons from COVID-19
« on: April 08, 2020, 09:59:32 AM »
You can't just "relocate production" of each critical component needed for any emergency that could come up. Things will be produced where they are most effectively produced, else things get very expensive and scarce.

I get some things might get more expensive in the short term, but it also contributes to local productivity, bringing up local value-adding which leads to more taxes raised which then can be used to drive the prices down again.

But how would diversifying production contribute to scarcity? Logic tells me the opposite would happen.

15
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: April 08, 2020, 08:09:09 AM »
Where would we possibly get all this biofuel from? Where is all that land for the crops? Where are all the refineries for biofuel? How would this possibly scale?

On the other hand, it's easy to build a wind turbine and the electrical infrastructure is already here to charge electric cars.

16
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 07, 2020, 08:30:26 PM »
A Nurse Bought Protective Supplies for Her Colleagues Using GoFundMe. The Hospital Suspended Her.

Link >> https://www.propublica.org/article/a-nurse-bought-protective-supplies-for-her-colleagues-using-gofundme-the-hospital-suspended-her

17
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 07, 2020, 08:20:16 PM »
Literally the post above yours, El Cid!

The Lessons from COVID-19 thread was created for discussions of this kind.

18
The rest / Re: Masks
« on: April 07, 2020, 08:11:22 PM »
What part of "ineffective" don't you understand?

Don't forget, you are the guy who said:

Masks can be seen as temporary vaccines. With good mask use, most social tasks can resume with minimal risk.

19
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 07, 2020, 07:51:18 PM »
More from the undercounting section

Quote
As of Monday afternoon, 2,738 New York City residents have died from ‘confirmed’ cases of COVID-19, according to the city Department of Health. That’s an average of 245 a day since the previous Monday.
But another 200 city residents are now dying at home each day, compared to 20 to 25 such deaths before the pandemic, said Aja Worthy-Davis, a spokeswoman for the medical examiner’s office. And an untold number of them are unconfirmed.

Link >> https://gothamist.com/news/surge-number-new-yorkers-dying-home-officials-suspect-undercount-covid-19-related-deaths

20
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 07, 2020, 07:43:47 PM »
One more to go!  ;)

21
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 07, 2020, 07:18:41 PM »
I think I'll take my effort elsewhere while you folks squabble this out.

Yes, please please please do that. And never come back. Please!

22
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 07, 2020, 05:46:24 PM »
Harpy, the linked article confirmes you are a conspiracy theorist.

You didn't even read it, did you? OMG, how pathetic you are...

23
Antarctica / Re: Antarctic Icebergs
« on: April 07, 2020, 04:50:19 PM »
Who says an ice island cannot turn on a dime.

It did it again! A68A update.

(GIF showing movement from 25.03 to today)

24
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 07, 2020, 02:56:02 PM »
We could make this go extinct by having everyone wear a mask and adopt optimal masking strategies

Not true. See masks thread.

25
The rest / Re: Masks
« on: April 07, 2020, 02:53:14 PM »
Effectiveness of Surgical and Cotton Masks in Blocking SARS–CoV-2: A Controlled Comparison in 4 Patients

Quote
In conclusion, both surgical and cotton masks seem to be ineffective in preventing the dissemination of SARS–CoV-2 from the coughs of patients with COVID-19 to the environment and external mask surface.

Link >> https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2764367/effectiveness-surgical-cotton-masks-blocking-sars-cov-2-controlled-comparison

26
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 07, 2020, 02:20:55 PM »

27
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 07, 2020, 01:24:37 PM »
Doctors and nurses will need PTSD treatment after coronavirus peaks in hospitals, warn health leaders

Link >> https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-uk-nhs-intensive-care-nurses-doctors-ptsd-a9450731.html

28
No sign of spring in Northern Norway. On this day there are several snow records broken. This is from E69 to North Cape.


29
The rest / Re: Masks
« on: April 07, 2020, 10:18:35 AM »
Quote
I'm going to change the sign so the pole is horizontal and the sign is mounted on the front like a plunger, so I can carry it around like a lance to gently push people back if they try to approach.


30
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 06, 2020, 08:05:42 PM »
Actually providing them would help.

I think he has this from a random conspiracy theorist on Facebook or so. I think so because he shared conspiracy theories on this forum before. And the reason he doesn't link it is that he knows the source is shit!

31
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 06, 2020, 07:35:33 PM »
I leave verification to you, the links will be torn in the air immediately if the content does not fit.

What is this supposed to mean?

32
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 06, 2020, 07:01:45 PM »
OK, gottcha, Pmt. :)

33
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 06, 2020, 06:38:43 PM »
Oh no. If you do not know anything of viruses then by no means watch this very deficient and rather simplistic video. Please note the numbers of the classes, and realize this leaves much out.

Genuinely can't tell if endorsement or bashing, Pmt.  ;D

34
The rest / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: April 06, 2020, 06:37:34 PM »
Voting is supposed to be anonymous! It's anti-democratic if you have record of who voted how.

100% agreement on the voting machines. They are inherently manipulatable so the results must be considered manipulated.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 06, 2020, 06:06:34 PM »
Comparison of 2020 vs. 2019

36
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: April 06, 2020, 05:42:24 PM »
Good question, novice Dietrich. Good question indeed.

37
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: April 06, 2020, 05:38:02 PM »
Quote
White House Alters Records

The White House has repeatedly altered official transcripts, 1984-style, to make Trump look better:

WH edits out Trump's despicable statement where he says he believes Putin's denial that he meddled in the election, despite what our own agencies concluded http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/trump-white-house-edits-putin-support-for-trump-out-of-transcript-1284716611545?v=railb&

WH edits transcript of DACA negotiations with Democrats to remove the part where Trump agrees to a clean bill that only restores DACA (which is what the dems wanted). He later walked this back and changed his mind (although he just denied he said it at all), deciding to withhold this popular move as leverage: https://www.rawstory.com/2018/01/white-house-edits-transcript-from-immigration-meeting-to-omit-trump-agreeing-with-sen-feinstein/

WH alters transcript to make Trump seem better at golf: https://deadspin.com/white-house-alters-transcript-to-clarify-that-the-presi-1797305596

WH edits transcript of Jared Kushner calling protestors in Gaza ‘part of the problem’: https://www.alternet.org/white-house-edits-transcript-jared-kushner-calling-protestors-gaza-part-problem

WH shares doctored video to make it seem like Acosta hit a staffer, to justify revoking his press pass: https://www.apnews.com/c575bd1cc3b1456cb3057ef670c7fe2a

Trump tweets doctored video that makes Pelosi sound drunk: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/1213677001

Trump altered an official National Weather Service hurricane projection map (which is a crime) with a sharpie to make it look like it supported his erroneous claim that Dorian would hit Alabama: https://time.com/5669115/trump-hurricane-dorian-alabama-sharpie/

WH edits Zelensky call memo to omit key damning words and phrases, including references by Zelensky to Burisma that show his prior knowledge of the WH pressure for the investigation, and references by Trump to recordings of Joe Biden: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/29/us/politics/alexander-vindman-trump-ukraine.html

WH publishes false summary of April 2019 call between Trump and Zelensky, claiming that Trump committed to working to help Ukraine with reforms and corruption battle when nothing of the sort was in the transcript released 11/15/19: https://www.thedailybeast.com/transcript-shows-wh-made-up-details-of-trumps-zelensky-call?ref=wrap

Trump tweets doctored video that was edited to make it appear that Pelosi tore up a copy of his SOTU speech right when he was praising Tuskegee Airmen, when she actually tore it up after his speech ended: https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/02/facebook-twitter-refuse-delete-video-trump-pelosi-ripping-speech.html?via=recirc_recent

The Strategic National Stockpile website changed its description after Kushner said stockpiles are not for states: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/jared-kushner-stockpile_n_5e86dca8c5b6a949183425ca

Original: “When state, local, tribal, and territorial responders request federal assistance to support their response efforts, the stockpile ensures that the right medicines and supplies get to those who need them most during an emergency. Organized for scalable response to a variety of public health threats, this repository contains enough supplies to respond to multiple large-scale emergencies simultaneously." https://web.archive.org/web/20200401024027/https://www.phe.gov/about/sns/Pages/default.aspx

Altered version after Kushner said stockpiles are not for states: "The Strategic National Stockpile's role is to supplement state and local supplies during public health emergencies. Many states have products stockpiled, as well. The supplies, medicines, and devices for life-saving care contained in the stockpile can be used as a short-term stopgap buffer when the immediate supply of adequate amounts of these materials may not be immediately available." https://www.phe.gov/about/sns/Pages/default.aspx

Quote
The most disturbing part of this whole saga to me, is that Orwell was wrong. In his vision, records needed to be altered for the deception to work. Winston's job was to make it impossible to prove that any falsification had taken place.
Our dystopia is actually worse: people believe the lies today, even when proof of the lie or falsification still exists. We don't need a Winston Smith for most of this shit, because they'll just believe whatever they're told, even when presented with video evidence proving otherwise.
The Party's philosophy was that you had to change the past to control it. Trump skips that step and just lies about the past, and somehow it still works.
There's just so much bullshit out there and so much horrible stuff that's true, that it becomes a full time job just to even learn about it all as it's happening. It's too much, so people just give up and go about their day, then view any accusations with skepticism.

Link >> https://www.reddit.com/r/Keep_Track/comments/fvoryl/the_white_house_alters_official_records_a_list/

38
The rest / Re: The Koch Watch Thread
« on: April 06, 2020, 05:34:12 PM »
Heartland Institute Warns Renewables Will Damage The Environment & Harm People — Junk Science For Pollution

Link >> https://cleantechnica.com/2020/04/04/heartland-institute-warns-renewables-will-damage-the-environment-harm-people/

39
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 06, 2020, 05:12:28 PM »
Is it really that important to try and determine which one actually caused the death

Yes, because we have to do a lot of science and modeling to find a path out of this mess.

If you have flawed numbers you also have flawes science and modeling.

Quote
The undercounting is not likely to be very high anyway.

The undercounting is only useful for authoritarians who want to see themselves in a good light. Literally everyone else is left worse!

40
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 06, 2020, 04:44:21 PM »
How are Viruses Classified?


41
I didnt know such things existed.

Me neither until today!  :D

But now i feel everyone should know about it.  ;)

42
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 06, 2020, 03:01:22 PM »
A real, not-clickbaity, average Chinese wet market


43
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 06, 2020, 02:51:20 PM »
'A Really Chilling Moment': Trump Refuses to Allow Dr. Fauci to Answer Question on Dangers of Hydroxychloroquine— "This is unacceptable. Dr. Fauci, one of the world's top infectious disease scientists, was just censored live at a White House press conference."

Link >> https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/04/06/really-chilling-moment-trump-refuses-allow-dr-fauci-answer-question-dangers

Why would he do that you might ask?

Major Producer of Hydroxychloroquine Once Paid Michael Cohen Hefty Sum for Access to Trump

Link >> https://lawandcrime.com/covid-19-pandemic/major-producer-of-hydroxychloroquine-once-paid-michael-cohen-hefty-sum-for-access-to-trump/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

45
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: April 06, 2020, 10:15:40 AM »
magical hypotheses

Nah, my friend. Nothing of sort.

Earlier in the thread Baking posted actual photos of the 'glue'. It's immensely thick. Way thicker than it looks from the satellite photos. There is no magical thinking involved here.

46
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: April 06, 2020, 09:54:43 AM »
So, what is it that's holding it in place, Paolo?

47
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: April 06, 2020, 09:30:01 AM »
You are a strong one, B! Time to say goodbye.

48
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 06, 2020, 08:11:24 AM »
Quote
We found that SARS-CoV-2 replicates poorly in dogs, ... but efficiently in ... cats.

Link >> https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.30.015347v1.full.pdf

49
Aerosols?

50
Antarctica / Re: Antarctic Icebergs
« on: April 06, 2020, 07:38:48 AM »
Hey, Tealight! Nice to see you around! :)

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 68