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Messages - Jim Hunt

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: November 18, 2017, 12:11:03 AM »
The Arctic moving image of the day:



Via SpaceWeather:

On the evening of Nov. 16th, aurora tour guide Tony Bateman of northern Finland was indoors, warming up between auroras, when his surroundings began to vibrate. "There was a huge bang and the cottage shook violently," he reports. "At first I thought it was an earthquake. Or maybe a tree fell on the cottage roof! I walked outside and inspected the trees. Everything looked okay." A quick replay of his aurora webcam solved the mystery. "It was an incredible meteor," he says.

2
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: October 30, 2017, 02:08:41 PM »
Not a hurricane of course, but nonetheless:

https://twitter.com/Unitil/status/924978453140688896

"1.5 million customers are without power in New England"

3
Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: October 24, 2017, 10:04:37 AM »
Do you have a website for that? Or is this "can" in the theoretical sense?

From this side of the pond:

https://www.sunnydesignweb.com/sdweb/#/Home

4
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: October 22, 2017, 09:41:25 AM »
4MWh batteries obviously doesn't make it fully dispatchable. Maybe it doesn't need to be dispatchable if the supply reasonably matches demand perhaps it doesn't make the need for dispatchable generation much or any worse?

The allegedly United Kingdom's Government finally seems to be getting around to the idea of trying to match demand to supply instead of the other way around. An overview of my visit to the BEIS basement last week:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2017/10/v2g-in-the-beis-basement/

Very important to realize the Australian electricity market is like Enron on steroids. The main players have been manipulating  availability to create price spikes.

Even relatively small amounts of storage like the 4MWh of the new project break this and prevent wide scale price manipulation. This storage is not about smoothing solar or wind but rather all about being able to jump in to prevent coal and gas generators from exploiting a terribly designed market.

Or as I put it:

If you’re “committed to tackling climate change” you really should be committed to minimising the integral of the blue line representing UK plc’s actual carbon intensity. Unfortunately that’s not how the UK’s energy markets currently operate. Perhaps they need a redesign?

5
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: October 17, 2017, 02:31:13 PM »
The latest news from ESB Networks:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2017/10/hurricane-ophelia-power-cuts/#comment-58669

At the height of the storm, 385,000 customers were without power but 170,000 have now had their power restored.

6
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: October 17, 2017, 12:09:27 PM »
This morning's Ophelia power cut summary:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2017/10/hurricane-ophelia-power-cuts/#Oct-17-1100

ESB: 360,000 and counting
NIE: 52,000
ENW: 18,000
WPD: 15,000

According to ESB:

We are advising all customers impacted by outages that they should prepare to be without electricity for number of days. It is very important that any customers who use electrically powered medical devices should contact their healthcare professional to make alternative arrangements if necessary.

7
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: October 16, 2017, 03:20:52 PM »
BBC now reporting over 100,000 without power

By my own calculations that number's now over 180,000.

8
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: October 16, 2017, 12:30:02 PM »
Over 35,000 properties across southern Ireland are now without power, plus a few thousand more here in Cornwall:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2017/10/hurricane-ophelia-power-cuts/#Oct-16-1100

9
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: October 16, 2017, 09:13:56 AM »
The winds are starting to pick up here in North Cornwall. The last NHC bulletin on Ophelia shows her tracking slightly further west, which should be better for us:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2017/10/hurricane-ophelia-power-cuts/#comment-58650

The 60N cut off is back too!

10
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: October 15, 2017, 11:09:48 PM »
From the latest NHC update on Ophelia:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2017/10/hurricane-ophelia-power-cuts/#comment-58647

No 60N cut off this time around!

11
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: October 15, 2017, 05:15:05 PM »
The latest update on Ophelia from the NHC, together with my local surf forecast:


12
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: October 15, 2017, 01:36:51 PM »
I'm closer to the eye of Ophelia than Patrick, and as luck would have it on Friday I was demonstrating a climate model in the basement of the allegedly United Kingdom's Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS for short):



I don't know about you, but I find it instructive to compare our Twitter feed with theirs. It was also instructive that I had long conversations with engineers from BEIS and OFGEM on our stand, but the policy wonks were noticeable only by their absence

Getting back to Ophelia, I'm due to be driving to Bristol during the peak of the impending storm on Monday. I think it'll be safer if I stay in front of my keyboard instead in order  to document the resulting power cuts. Here's the current NHC forecast:

INTERESTS IN IRELAND SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY MET
EIREANN... AND INTERESTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N  18.3W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT  30 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  964 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.




13
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: October 03, 2017, 09:55:00 PM »
I was surprised to see there still isn't a solution for this, having read about it years ago (probably on Jim's V2G blog).

Vehicle-to-home has been available for a number of years in Japan, but getting bi-directional charging stations to European standards is a decidedly non trivial problem, especially at a sensible price.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: October 03, 2017, 05:04:57 PM »
It's starting to look decidedly wintry around O-Buoy 14:

15
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: October 03, 2017, 02:16:42 PM »
My pleasure Neven,

If I were you I'd wait a while before even attempting to invest in an EV and associated vehicle-to-grid equipment. There's an awful lot of ill informed hype abroad at the moment. Expect matters in Europe to clarify somewhat over the next 6 months or so.

Just in case you're in London at the time, I shall be attending this event on October 13th:

https://www.bsigroup.com/en-GB/our-services/events/2017/L13smartgrid/

16
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: October 03, 2017, 06:57:02 AM »
UK wind power generation is literally off the scale at the moment on the Gridwatch site

See also:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2017/09/national-grid-launches-carbon-intensity-data-feed/#comment-58425

Carbon Intensity dropped to an all time record low of 73 gCO₂/kWh overnight

17
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: October 03, 2017, 06:05:52 AM »
The latest news from the European launch of the 2018 Nissan LEAF, along with lots of other stuff:

"Nissan’s Future Promises “Free” EV Charging"

Nissan also announced a UK collaboration with OVO allowing customers to purchase an xStorage home energy unit at a discounted price enabling them to ‘sell’ back energy to the grid. This helps contribute to grid stability in a world where demand for energy is increasing due to a growing, urbanising population. It can result in an additional expected income for users averaging £350 / €400 per year.

Not to mention:

The new 40kWh battery for the 100% electric e-NV200 offers a 60% extended range of up to 280km NEDC. And, with no increase in size of the battery itself, customers will face no compromise in either load space or payload. Crucially, it can help make 100% electric last miles delivery achievable for businesses and professional drivers everywhere, with customers now able to drive more than 100 km further on a single charge.

Folks here might also be interested in the shiny new open source application for our trusty Raspberry Pi:

"National Grid Launches Carbon Intensity Data Feed"

[UK] Carbon Intensity dropped to an all time record low of 73 gCO₂/kWh overnight.

18
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: September 24, 2017, 09:19:10 AM »
You left out this one oren:

https://twitter.com/StefLhermitte/status/911712305049751558

Crowdsourcing beats automation any day of the week!

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: September 18, 2017, 08:40:33 AM »
I'll go out on a (very short) limb and state my opinion that 2017 IJIS extent did indeed bottom out at 4.47 km2 on September 9, for a sixth place finish.

Be careful Jim. I went out on that self same limb a couple of days ago:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/09/the-2017-arctic-sea-ice-metric-minima/#Sep-16

20
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: September 11, 2017, 12:29:18 AM »
Power outages are now over 2.5 million across Florida:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2017/09/hurricane-irma-power-outages/

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: September 11, 2017, 12:11:59 AM »
Is there a equally recent chart from canadian ice service?

There is indeed:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/07/the-northwest-passage-in-2017/#Sep-10

In addition, David Cowper has left Cambridge Bay in Polar Bound and is heading east.

22
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: September 06, 2017, 10:40:39 PM »
2018 Nissan LEAF revealed.

My own take on the new LEAF:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2017/09/2018-nissan-leaf-revealed/

What gets my goat is all the people hyping the "addition" of V2G to the 2018 model. I even had to give Bobby Llewellyn a dressing down:

https://twitter.com/bobbyllew/status/905354466739724288

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: September 03, 2017, 03:06:37 PM »
I have ex Prof. Judy to thank for the heads up on this open access paper!

"Extreme cyclone events in the Arctic: Wintertime variability and trends"

Using a combination of station data from Ny-Ålesund and ERA-I, we find a positive trend in extreme cyclone events over the Arctic North Atlantic in winter. This trend is closely associated with the significant winter warming of the region. Composite analyses of extreme storm events at Ny-Ålesund reveal the importance of associated anomalous heat and moisture transports from mid-latitudes for Arctic amplification, in accordance with previous studies. From the observational point of view, we find that Svalbard is located in a key region of climate change, and long-term observations from the Ny-Ålesund station are representative for the broader Arctic North Atlantic region.

Whilst we're on the topic of cyclones, see also:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/09/the-2017-arctic-sea-ice-metric-minima/

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: September 03, 2017, 08:46:48 AM »
The WARM buoy pushpins have been updated. To my ageing eyes it looks like #6 is now free floating:


25
Arctic Background / Re: Pen Hadow's Arctic Mission
« on: September 02, 2017, 02:35:34 PM »
I hate the cacklers!

So does Snow White! She's been inspired to create a somewhat surreal modern Arctic art installation:

"Reductio Ad Absurdum"

26
Arctic Background / Re: Pen Hadow's Arctic Mission
« on: August 31, 2017, 05:44:23 PM »
Ever sailed to 85N?

See also:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/07/pen-hadows-arctic-mission-to-sail-to-the-north-pole/#comment-223098

It seems Babouchka doesn't count because she didn't only "sail". The absence of a safe return on her part is perhaps a valid point though?

27
Arctic Background / Re: Pen Hadow's Arctic Mission
« on: August 31, 2017, 11:04:29 AM »
It's easy to cackle if you have people saying they will sail to the North Pole.

The point I was endeavouring to make in my original article was that it was the paragon of journalistic virtue that is the Sunday Times that wrote a headline to that effect above an article that didn't mention the existence of the Arctic Mission web site and its rather more nuanced mission statement.

However Pen Hadow did initially go along with that angle on things far too much for comfort, on the BBC and elsewhere.

28
Arctic Background / Re: Pen Hadow's Arctic Mission
« on: August 31, 2017, 09:23:56 AM »
You beat me to it Niall!

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/07/pen-hadows-arctic-mission-to-sail-to-the-north-pole/#Aug-31

Cue the cackling from all the usual suspects?

29
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: August 31, 2017, 08:44:01 AM »
The latest NHC track has Irma becoming "major" on Sunday:

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast and Irma is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: August 30, 2017, 10:53:40 PM »
Crystal Serenity is now trailing in the wake of two icebreakers:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/08/crystal-serenity-sails-the-northwest-passage-in-2017/#Aug-30

Heading for the open water?

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 30, 2017, 10:37:51 PM »
The current cyclone train extending from EPAC to the N. Atlantic reminds me a lot of the system that occurred in the winter to keep persistent high SSTs in the Atlantic side.

I'd been wondering aloud along similar lines in the heart of darkness. A fair way out, but:


32
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: August 30, 2017, 05:24:37 PM »
The current NHC prognosis for Irma:

33
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: August 30, 2017, 03:46:57 PM »
Irma will officially join in the fun shortly:

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/902876634843406340

NHC will be initiating advisories at 11 AM AST on Tropical Storm Irma, located west of the Cabo Verde Islands.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« on: August 30, 2017, 03:09:14 PM »
Shock News!

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/08/facts-about-the-arctic-in-august-2017/#comment-223074

The “moderator” at WUWT has finally released my helpful comment from purgatory!!

Something has been lost in translation though :(

35
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: August 30, 2017, 12:12:45 PM »
Harvey is finally giving Houston some respite, from the rain if not from the power outages:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2017/08/hurricane-harvey-power-outages/#Aug-30-1000

Make sure to check out the rainfall radar animation.

36
Arctic Background / Re: Pen Hadow's Arctic Mission
« on: August 30, 2017, 12:50:56 AM »
Yes, I knew Pen is a person.

My apologies for the misunderstanding!

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 30, 2017, 12:49:30 AM »
The ripples are back:

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 30, 2017, 12:07:22 AM »
The latest update from IMB buoy 2017B:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/summer-2017-imb-buoys/#2017B

August 25th is the day before the buoy became "Free Floating":

40
Arctic Background / Re: Pen Hadow's Arctic Mission
« on: August 29, 2017, 06:31:12 PM »
Will The Pen Hadow be able to get in but not get out?

Pen Hadow is a person. The yachts he chartered are Bagheera and Snow Dragon II.

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/07/pen-hadows-arctic-mission-to-sail-to-the-north-pole/#Aug-29-PM

They have just breached the 80 degrees north barrier:

41
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: August 29, 2017, 05:11:29 PM »
Meanwhile over on the other side of the Atlantic:

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: August 29, 2017, 04:33:07 PM »
'Nuff said?


43
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: August 29, 2017, 01:49:53 PM »
Electric power outages have started to increase in Louisiana and New Orleans:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2017/08/hurricane-harvey-power-outages/#Aug-29-1200

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: August 29, 2017, 12:30:38 PM »
Ice ahoy!

45
Climate scientists disagree.

See this  sequence of "tweets" from Gavin Schmidt:

https://twitter.com/ClimateOfGavin/status/902317222986743809

Things that are happening now naturally generate questions about precip intensity, hurricane genesis, intensification, statistics etc

These questions might not have easy or straightforward answers. Indeed they are often at the cutting edge of current research.

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: August 29, 2017, 11:41:49 AM »

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: August 29, 2017, 12:21:50 AM »
How far along is Crystal Serenity?

Cambridge Bay:

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: August 27, 2017, 11:56:36 PM »
It looks as though the Northwest Passage can finally be declared "open" according to the CIS's criterion:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/07/the-northwest-passage-in-2017/#Aug-27

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 27, 2017, 06:53:07 PM »
Some wind is rippling the surface of the Northwest Passage.

P.S. Added the next snapshot too:

50
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: August 27, 2017, 10:35:31 AM »
It may interest regular readers to learn that after waxing lyrical about "energy storage" for quite some time the UK Government has finally decided to pump some money into vehicle-to-grid technology:

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/innovative-vehicle-to-grid-technology-to-receive-20-million

There's also this recent research paper:

Can V2G Improve EV Battery Life?

We show that an EV connected to this smart-grid system can accommodate the demand of the power network with an increased share of clean renewable energy, but more profoundly that the smart grid is able to extend the life of the EV battery beyond the case in which there is no V2G.

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