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Messages - igs

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The rest / Re: Pareidolia
« on: August 09, 2020, 07:56:05 PM »;topic=382.0;attach=279778;image

Nellie the icelephant , anyone ?

I hope it's a youngster who did not grow tusks yet, else poor boy/girl.  ;)

Great find BTW  8)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 09, 2020, 07:48:51 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!

Something tells me that we are heading towards multiple century drops with at least one or two multi-century drops.

At least I would have to revise all i learned over years thoroughly if that won't be the case over the next 2-10 days.

I see dire times for the ice ahead, waiting for FRIV and others to find the best words ;)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 09, 2020, 03:15:14 AM »
Re-read the comment, all the way to the end. You are in agreement.

yep you're right, my bad, sorry

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 08, 2020, 10:23:02 PM »
Really I am not surprised at the slow down in extent losses as there was a lot of aggressive preconditioned sea ice this season and much of that melted out quickly and completely in July leaving no easy melt remaining.  Subsequently we have seen aggressive melt and disruption of the Beaufort and Chukchi and disturbing weakness north and east of Peary Land to a degree I cannot recall seeing in prior years.  Almost looks like a channel may form across the Fram and up and east of the Morris-Jesup Plateau towards the pole.  Additionally the situation looks to be un-favourable along the Atlantic front ( if no more melt occurs there it is already not a good year ) or the CAA.

Thus I am surprised by commentary anticipating a continued slowdown in extent losses when it looks much more like losses are about to pick up again.

You're most probably on the wrong track and I am surprised that you cannot see what's visible with our naked eyes in addition to the many other parameters that were explained in detail.

We shall see century drops again and i recommend patience. Nature does not follow our "whishful" thinking paterns.

As I posted earler, as soon as a chart doesn't follow a linear curve to oblivion too many jump at each cliff and each slowdown as that would make up for the rest of the season.

I promise you that within 14 days you will have understood and changed your mind.

I personally opted all season for second place around 3.5M km2 extent and stick to it

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 08, 2020, 06:40:38 PM »
Just an idea for the future: could ASIF fund or partially fund a research/data project for the Arctic? There is surely sufficient expertise in the community to find a suitable project and partner.

Based on Gero’s laptop there’s also willingness to contribute so we could probably raise some money as well.

We need reliable multi season buoys with a camera for one thing that i would gladly contribute to.

Also reliable gridded ice-thickness measurement would be nice. Those two things would make a proper assessment of conditions way easier for anyone.

With contributing I don't assume we can get even close to cover a significant part of the costs but then why not partner with a major player and start a global crowdfund for the purpose.

I'm sure we would be overwhelmed with how much funding would flow into such a project and I'm regularly disappointed that those who have the means and know about the importance do not establish a interconnected grid of such buoys (anymore?)

The rest / Re: Arctic Café
« on: August 07, 2020, 11:55:49 PM »
Where I was the previous couple of days. Keeping my eye on the ice situation in my neck of the woods. (I'm no photog, but here ya go anyway)

Mount Robson, from Snowbird Pass. (about 34km from where I started walking, elevation 2452 meters for a total gain of 1619 meters)

link to haphazard-ly put together panorama: Reef Icefield

Great pics  8)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 07, 2020, 11:54:46 PM »
I keep thinking that with all the energy that went into the system this year, and with the record high temperatures in the northern hemisphere, that a storm like this is bound to happen. Let's hope I'm wrong about that...

Also for the very same reason high water temps over large areas) it could happen a bit later but once it starts could be worse than ever.

Perhaps this is what the models expect as well and why a heavy storm is predicted so often in the >5 days forecasts of latest.
We're having our first heatwave of the season here in Belgium after a rather cool month of July. And it's a serious one that'll last for about 10 days, with record temperatures above and around 35°C for 6 of them. This is insane! And I'm curious what the effect will be on the arctic with this complete change of the weather.

Last year we had an unprecedented day above 40°C here, and all that heat went to Greenland back then, which caused a massive melt event there. So I'm curious what effect this complete change of the weather in Europe will do for the Arctic weather.

Exactly my thoughts as well when I heard about current temps in the Benelux and parts of Germany again at this time of the year.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 07, 2020, 11:52:41 PM »
Re: mac backup

time machine on two external drives, rotate one out of the house weekly


Exactly and in addition i recommend bootable backups with this nice piece of software:

Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: August 07, 2020, 09:11:15 PM »
Dude, he’s talking about three different satellite sensors suggesting the same thing (how surface melting has evolved during this summer). What exactly are you talking about?

Just talk to me in a moderate and non-condescending tone and I'm not a DUDE.

If you have to explain something do it case oriented and i referred to the text not the image.

There can be misunderstandings as well as underlaying implications that can easily be sorted in a more civil manner.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 07, 2020, 09:07:54 PM »
I keep thinking that with all the energy that went into the system this year, and with the record high temperatures in the northern hemisphere, that a storm like this is bound to happen. Let's hope I'm wrong about that...

Also for the very same reason high water temps over large areas) it could happen a bit later but once it starts could be worse than ever.

Perhaps this is what the models expect as well and why a heavy storm is predicted so often in the >5 days forecasts of latest.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 07, 2020, 08:48:59 PM »
Vox is correct. The data on the drive may be perfectly recoverable.

And a reminder to everyone: always back up your computer/data! Personally, I do it monthly, and it's easy as pie.

Absolutely, who doesn't do backups, sooner or later get's into trouble.
There is a saying that goes like who is not preparing is preparing for desaster.

I'm writing this because i saw too many businesses and good people get to the verge of collapse due to such lack of backups.

I do 3 hourly backups 3 permanent heavily encrypted syncs to cloud services and 9 weekly backups of which 2 are OFF-SITE and that's the most important one in case on get's hacked or the house burns down or one is living near the port of Beirut for example. (hope that's not indelicate because surprises of that kind are indeed good examples. )

Would I lose my data I could head directly to an almshouse or retirement home.


The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: August 06, 2020, 09:27:02 PM »
Early Mars was covered in ice sheets, not flowing rivers, researchers say


Hmmm. Eskers? If Mars were once covered in an ice sheet, and rivers flowed under the ice, one would think there would be other evidence of this ice- moraines probably and eskers for sure. The article did not rule this out. Maybe nobody looked yet....

Probably like so often what happened in parts of a place is generalized.

I assume that both is true, there wore open rivers ( see erosion marks ) as well as under glacial rivers.

Mars has different regions, climate zones and geological zones like the midwest of the U.S. is not nearly the same like L.A., S.F. N.Y. that are all distinct from FL or TX, cultural, climate-wise as well as geologically and Mars will be no different.

Reminds me of some people calling me in Winter how we manage all the snow, just because in norther european news they said it's bloody cold and snowing in Spain while in fact that was true for Madrid and some parts north of it while the coast had 15 - 20C daily higs and 8-10C nightly lows.

The new thread is called "Pseudoscience and how to debunk it"
and can be found here >>,3245.msg279793.html#msg279793

A well chosen title  :)

The politics / Re: Brexit...
« on: August 06, 2020, 01:22:16 AM »
Sorry folks but...

Dog + Coffee + Laptop = DISASTER.

Laptop may not be repairable and as my budget does not run to a new laptop that's me out of action indefinitely.ĺ

Condolences, crossposting here as there might be britons with surplus laptops... Hope the files can be salvaged, or maybe they were in a cloud already.

BTW Gero, the harddrive should still be intact even if the motherboard melted or short circuited.

means if you don't have a backup and get your new machine which looks certain, just dont throw the old machine away without extracting the Hard-Drive or SSD and let someone extract your data.

Also you can buy a USB case that fits to any HD/SSD and can be used as an external drive and/or to extract data from any formerly built-in HD/SSD.

In case of doubt and/or in case of high costs I can easily do that for you, all equipment in house but then for the cost of a courier back and forth you can certainly recover your data locally.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 06, 2020, 01:12:06 AM »
Gero fundraising:

Within a very short time, we raised €215 via GoFundMe. Be Cause and Greylib are contributing too (BIG TIME) but not via GoFundMe.

This is beyond words. I'm so proud of this community right now.

Edit: Not even an hour after setting it up, and it's €390 now! 19 people already contributed. I'm speechless.

Edit 2: GoFundMe just send me an email: "Because you're receiving so much support, we will now send you daily emails that highlight your GoFundMe's activity." (€435 now)

Edit 3: I see what you did there: €666 now!  ;D


close to 1'300 already, sharing your pleasure, that's a good thing.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 06, 2020, 01:10:18 AM »
Posting to the main thread for awareness.

If you want to contribute to the new Laptop for Gerontocrat >>

The dog killed the old one and he needs a new one. Some members asked for a GoFundMe campaign so i set one up at the link above.

Great job and it looks promising that he will get a decent machine, even a mac is within reach LOL

I find this really a great thing, thanks BK to establish the gateway.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 06, 2020, 12:51:42 AM »
My God gerontocrat! That's awful. I wish you have made backups.
Perhaps we from the forum could each give some money for you to buy a (2nd hand?) laptop.

I wish you strength with the sudden hole in your life/routine.
A virtual hug from me.

I'm in if someone will organize it. Perhaps Gero can let us know what kind of equipment would serve his purposes and perhaps you have a paypal account or something similar easy to send some funds.

DON'T BE SHY you deserve any help from us who benefit for so long from the great efforts you made.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 05, 2020, 03:02:09 AM »
I don't buy into this year has more holes than other years,

You don't have to but then i don't get what you're heading at. If you mean to say that Piomas is reliable in summer this is your right to believe but argueing with fairness terms while things finally are about facts does not leave much room for further discussions.

I suggest to just observe futher, I'll do the same and sooner or later we gonna know hopefully  :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 04, 2020, 07:54:11 PM »
We cannot realy compare a year with totally distinct conditions with any other year as long as the model is flawed.

What are you referring to? Lack of aerosols due tu non existing air travel?

GAAC + Amount of Insolation + Currently being 1. on record + the most probable amount of Ice melted in the CAB from below and above.

If we are 1. in extend, 1. in area and had a way above average top melt we must be on record volume because all parameters say so.

On the other hand as long as a model shows ice where my (our) eyses see none at all that extra amount of ice in volume makes up for the overestimate.

Many models were built under conditions that were very very far from anything we can see these days, the past 5 years and this year in extremis.

EDIT: Above does not come with lack of appreciation for the work done, basically there are seasons where to models are still quite good, just no during the season with lots of melt ponds and wet surfaces.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: August 04, 2020, 07:19:31 PM »
Iron man on a mission ?

 ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

I think, not really, but perhaps the community should be able to judge what is quacks and what is not.

I'd trust most members on this forum to end a discussion very quickly by reason and by absence after a short time so that any real quacks would run into a dead end and it would show.

This again would earn the forum merits. Muting things have never been a working strategy long term but proof such things wrong and how stupd they mostly are makes totally sense.

Only if the decisions is taken away from many by one or a few it's called censorship.

Like so often the questi0n is: who decides what's right and what's wrong, who decides what's accaptable and what's not. Too many things are subective and so many things are so easy to be proven wrong, hence I'd let things flow to a certain point and then use the unmasking process to ban a few and to lock a few threads but then with proof and visible for anyone.

Last but not least it's totally fair that in a forum the owener decide on a policy and it's also totally ok if decisions are made by moderators.

Therefore I have no issues with either decissions and ways in which things can be done.

The above are only my two cents, a bit more work, a bit less easy but more transparent etc.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 04, 2020, 07:02:26 PM »
Worry not .. PIOMAS shows plenty of thick ice N of Greenland and the pack firmly attached by thick ice to Svalbard . Our eyes obviously deceive us . b.c.

PIOMAS is not perfect but it's the same for other years so it's still a good model to compare with other years.

I mean I think it was correct when 2017 started with record lows because of the very warm winter before it and whilst extent was nothing special, despite that summer actually
 being quite ordinary, the CAB ice was in poor shape by September which suggested too me things could of been really bad if we had a warm summer that year.

Back to 2020 and it's a race againat time for the icein the CAB, interesting too see how that diffused icee to the NE of Greenland develops, we probably at a stage where even southerly winds through the fram Stright is just as damaging for the ice as northerly winds is through the fram Stright. Quite a (sad) sight really and tells us what some already thought and the CAB ice is pretty thin.

In theory yes but the less real ice we have larger is the impact of fake-ice on the model.

Obviously in summer area measurement is tricky at best and piomas is based on that.

As it happens this year has way more real meltponds and real open water between the ice than others which makes the impact of a flawed model larger. Errors can be multiplied once the conditions favour the flaw in a model.

For me at least it's obvious that the ice in general is thinner by quite a margin than in 2012 and any other year before this and should piomas not show a first place in lack of volume it's due to exactly those things and cannot be used to compare and cannot be taken seriously.

We cannot realy compare a year with totally distinct conditions with any other year as long as the model is flawed. We have to rely on eysight and perhaps we soon have to count pixels instead of modelling, at least the outcome is somehow not a model but real ;)

The rest / Re: The off topic off topic thread
« on: August 02, 2020, 11:16:34 PM »
No, Igs, that's not what this is about.

This is about the conspiracy that vaccines serve the purpose to reprogram the genetics of humans to enslave us all.

If you want to read about this, go to Facebook and follow the most lunatic fringe accounts. The whole internet is riddled with this. This is a scientifically oriented forum. Lunatic fringe is not the scope of this forum.

OK, that's one of the bullshit conspiracy theories, thanks for info.

I think that most would come to the same conclusion and the rest is helplessly lost so why not let it stand. Deleting stuff only fuels the wrong and doesn't damage mature thinkers at all, simply makes us laugh.

However that may be, you have to discuss this with your fellow mods, not my call, just my two cents.


The rest / Re: The off topic off topic thread
« on: August 02, 2020, 10:10:16 PM »
Anti-vaxxer stuff, Kassy.

If you are interested in this, you'll find it using google. I don't think this is content we should allow here.

Are you saying that people who opt for not being vaccined are conspiracy theorists or did i get this wrong?

Do you know that most young >40 men who died form spanish flue were multiple times vaccined by their army during the war. Just one example.

I for one find it ok if people want a vaccine but i find it also ok to trust mother nature more and considering overpopulation it's not that certain whether protecting all 8 billion from illness and death is a really undisputable and sustainable goal. At least the discussion should be allowed.

Of course I'm for decent discussion and not the outright stupid stuff one can find as well in the world wide web but like kassy I think censorship is never recommendable, at the end the downsides outweigh the advantages.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 02, 2020, 06:29:18 PM »
AMSR2 remote sensing instrument is showing a significant increase of sea ice area in the CAB.

I am expecting NSIDC sea ice area to follow suit in the next several days (especially the Central Arctic).

No it hasn't.  Clouds and fog have increased blocking the sensor.

Which is why NSIDC area in the cab isn't as effected uses different bandwidth.

I can't believe this had to be explained for the billionth time.
This weather dude knows that and pisses all over that to press his agenda.

That's just lame.

He must be a polititian, telling mostly true things taken out of context with a false implication achieved through semantic tricks in addition to leaving things out.

Probably on a mission with bad motives.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 01, 2020, 08:37:33 PM »
This is why I stay away from the non-cryosphere forums. (besides this individual thread)

@HapHazard +1

@Neven +1

Glad to see there are still a few who think on their own and see through plots.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« on: August 01, 2020, 08:31:31 PM »
It's funny how the cc deniers always come up with the one measure out of twenty that supports their argument that the ice isn't melting.
If there is a high pressure, then the ice isn't melting, it's compacting.
If there is a low pressure and the ice is spreading out: it's obvious that the ice isn't melting, because extent numbers aren't freefalling.
MFW reading their comments:

Great and important post and it drives me nuts every day, have to hold back with the power of a heavy truck.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 01, 2020, 08:27:15 PM »
A lot changes in a week. A week ago a record year looked very possible but now the slowdown and dispersion have made a top 3 place seem likely. Even the thin ice takes a while to melt and as nights get darker peak melting has passed now.

Still a lot of things happened in the Arctic in 2020 that never happened before so 2030 free of sea ice in Summer is very possible.

Every year the Arctic makes us think it is all going to melt out only to surprise us in another way. Slowdown is well under way now but there will be further big drops bringing final Jaxa extent to just under 4m like 2019 but let's wait and see.

Let me tell you, the spring is loading and soon you'll see around century drops again. Don't jump on every cliff or slow down but try to keep the bigger picture in view.

The rest / Re: Pareidolia
« on: July 29, 2020, 12:16:29 AM »
Am I the only one who sees the dolphin ?
I can see it. A river dolphin ridden by a weirdo holing its head, or a sperm whale that could also be a big dolphin.

But damn the creepy baby...  :-\

Casper in desperate mood ?

The rest / Re: Pareidolia
« on: July 28, 2020, 11:00:25 PM »
Am I the only one who sees the dolphin ?

Just asking because of the creepy part, even the eye is where it belongs, mouth is open.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 28, 2020, 10:56:58 PM »
NSIDC extent comparisons with previous low years. 2020 is becoming more and more similar to 2012 on the Atlantic/Laptev side. Surprisingly it leads over 2012 in the southern CAA, and of course in the ESS, while lagging in M'Clure Strait and of course the Beaufort.

My take away from these images is this:  To catch 2012, the CAA & Beaufort must disintegrate this year the way the ESS, Laptev and Chukchi did in 2012, 2016 & 2019.

And so, what do we have now?  A 969 millibar storm in the Beaufort, & matching high pressure over the Kara.

Potential is very high for the Beaufort to be torn to shreds, and a lot of CAB ice to be thrown into the Laptev "pyre".

Is it possible that if all comes true that we would need kind of compaction in the 2 weeks before the minimum as well.

This is rarely discussed but the compaction in 2012 just in time before melting stops in the CAB, at least for my understanding, had a significant impact on that last leg to the minimum as compared to the way sooner and faster flattening of the curve in normal years.

In short, now we get dispersion for the ice to melted in warmer waters and later we need the rest to gather in the middle so to say.

Anyone sharing this views or anyone who thinks that this it totally non-sense.

The rest / Re: Pareidolia
« on: July 28, 2020, 09:33:34 PM »
Can't decide if creepy or cute.  :o ???

Dolphins are mostly cute, a nice-one indeed

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 28, 2020, 02:40:31 PM »
Can't quite understand the comments from wdmn and off the grid.
Simply reported on an updated report from a reputable source
Thought readers might be interested in their findings.

Reading that article it looks quite poor in many aspects and leaves out several key aspects of this melting season.

I did not reply first to not brake loose back and forth bickering but since you insist I recommend to at least consider other sources as well and then the 30+ forecasters are easily outnumbered and overvoted in this forum alone which, as I believe, is a reputable source as well  ;) ;) ;)

Also keep in mind that a few special characters who disappeared from this place recently are suspected to be back under a new nickname and looking at the number of posts etc. would at least raise the question.

Last but not least we cannot predict with certainty that a stall and/or early minimum cannot happen but at the moment all signs hint at another outcome than that.

Either way a 4.3M km2 outcome is a bit extreme even considering the possibility. 4M km2 and below is as certain as it can get IMO.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 28, 2020, 02:23:28 PM »

Does this allow the cyclone to become one of the strongest summer cyclones? In recent years, only three cyclones dropped below 970, two in August 2012 and 2016, and one in June 2018?

I think it's not really surprising that it went/goes lower than expected by the models because the models do most probably not put into account the vast area of warm open water. I think some of the models reach their limits and algorithms sooner or later have to be adapted to the new normal.

In addition to the area and temps there is probably an even more hidden factor of thickness of the warm layers at the surface. Even if the first two, area and temps are calculated properly, the amount of warm waters in the column due to long intense insolation this year is kind of new.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 28, 2020, 03:12:39 AM »

Plus moonsoon like torrental rainfall as it seams.

The rainfall is certainly very important! But, they never get monsoon like torrential rains in the arctic. When we start seeing that, it is time to kiss our asses goodby because the Hadley and Ferrell cells have fallen apart.

The latest forecast is a big one, but small by standards that we are familiar with in the mid and tropical latitudes.

Ok, slightly exagerated, standing to be corrected.

Just looks like more intense precipitation that's I've not see so often on that webcam, really wet in contrast to the usual drizzle.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 28, 2020, 12:04:27 AM »
Waves of rare magnitude battering the coast, captured on the Barrow webcam. Hat tip to AM2 on the melting season thread.

Plus moonsoon like torrental rainfall as it seams.

If that's the situation a few miles out where the ice is it will have a significant impact on top melt.

If i'm not mistaken rainfall melts way more ice in way less time than much warmer air, ready to be corrected if that's not the case.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« on: July 28, 2020, 12:01:17 AM »
Wow! That is a scary forecast for the ice!

Thank you for posting these Freegrass.

True that and just imagine what will happen to the now slightly dispersed ice in warmer surrounding seas.

Area is on the drop and lowest already and won't fall back anytime soon and extent will follow suit with a few major successive drops once the dispersed junks of ice hat a few days time to melt.

Of course we all dunno the weather until it happens but currently it looks that way.

The forum / Re: Suggestions
« on: July 27, 2020, 11:55:00 PM »
I observed that some users here have a statistic that goes about like this:

40% of the posts without contributing content on any topic but acclaiming a small group after first checking from which direction the wind blows.

40% bashing others but again only after waiting for a few posts to be sure from which
direction the wind blows to make certain to be in the right slot of the "winners"

20% post on a topic, mostly without big value that might not matter but still

So the acclaimed few will of course not complain about this and the others that are and were
bashed of course can't do a lot because they're in the  group of the losers.

It would be interesting to see someone sharpening his sensors to such intrigant behaviour, not that I expect to get far with this wish/suggestion, it's just that for me intrigant pharisees are one of the worst. I prefer people who are wrong or complicated but with an honest point to make that eventually can be proven right or wrong.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 27, 2020, 11:44:55 PM »
I'm not trying to be a dick but people post here putting huge effort and time backing there opinions and thoughts with great depth and thoughtfulnes and you dismiss that as crazy while offering no empirical evidence. 

No worries, it's always the same few contenders that jump on every slow down and/or pick-up bandwagon immediately. I've got some idea about the possible motives.

Obviously a minor slowdown of a few days had to be expected during transition from anti-cyclonic to cyclonic conditions. The ice that now spreads out a bit will need a few days to melt and from that day one the slope will resume to average or below average gradient.

Just wait and chuckle, same happened every month till now after each minor slow down only to be followed by even more rigorous drops (cliffs)

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 26, 2020, 10:40:44 PM »
I can't really figure out why the water is such a different color here, but this hue of blue is absolutely gorgeous!
The bloom is getting bigger.
I guess you could call his a BOE as well?  :-\

Scary, what sort of life lives down there, i know an algae bloom in 2019 off Norway killed 7 million Salmon being factory Farmed off the coast!

Yeah, and the farms kill the wild salmon and their residues even have an impact on such events.

Kind of natural justice apparently.

Consequences / Re: Potential effects caused by loss of sea ice
« on: July 26, 2020, 08:37:00 PM »
From a 2014 NCAR press release

The team found that during episodes of rapid sea-ice loss, the rate of Arctic land warming is 3.5 times greater than the average 21st century warming rates predicted in global climate models. While this warming is largest over the ocean, the simulations suggest that it can penetrate as far as 900 miles inland. The simulations also indicate that the warming acceleration during such events is especially pronounced in autumn. The decade during which a rapid sea-ice loss event occurs could see autumn temperatures warm by as much as 9 degrees F (5 degrees C) along the Arctic coasts of Russia, Alaska, and Canada.

Lawrence and his colleagues then used the model to study the influence of accelerated warming on permafrost and found that in areas where permafrost is already at risk, such as central Alaska, a period of abrupt sea-ice loss could lead to rapid soil thaw. This situation, when summer thaw extends more deeply than the next winter’s freeze, can lead to a talik, which is a layer of permanently unfrozen soil sandwiched between the seasonally frozen layer above and the perennially frozen layer below. A talik allows heat to build more quickly in the soil, hastening the long-term thaw of permafrost.

Recent warming has degraded large sections of permafrost, with pockets of soil collapsing as the ice within it melts. The results include buckled highways, destabilized houses, and “drunken forests” of trees that lean at wild angles.

“An important unresolved question is how the delicate balance of life in the Arctic will respond to such a rapid warming,” Lawrence says. “Will we see, for example, accelerated coastal erosion, or increased methane emissions, or faster shrub encroachment into tundra regions if sea ice continues to retreat rapidly?”

Thanks, some users here refuse to accept that a BOE will be a game changer, there have been ongoing discussions for years now even though it's very obvious that without the "Freezer" we shall see a jump in temps that will have a significant impact on AT LEAST the entire northern hemisphere and eventually on greenland melt speed.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 23, 2020, 08:55:27 PM »
The thinnest ice easily can be broken under moderate pressure. I saw what happens with floes in rivers. They turn into white mix near cracks if the ice is thick and turn into white mix completely if the ice is thin. I guess, the same process had a place just north of the Laptev Sea a week ago.

Pressure in rivers is mostly huge and not moderate, at least in times of breakups.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 23, 2020, 08:51:32 PM »
I guess those are made by the tide. The clumps of ice are stranded and at every high tide the ocean nibbels a bit on the ice. The walruss propably entered the lump of ice during high tide and when the picture was taken, the tide was low.

Sorry but NO !

It's a known phenomenon as explained upthread.

Once something is grounded there is always some list (99.9% which is why more than one, meters appart, only in theory can exist but in real life won't happen)

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?
« on: July 23, 2020, 06:28:00 PM »
Opted for 1st half of August because that's more than 3 weeks to go that should suffice to open at least one of the routes, probably even more than one.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 23, 2020, 06:22:45 PM »
How do those ice mushrooms get made?

Salty warm waters melt the ice faster than cool air, especially with wave action, wind drift and currents involved.

You can find this phenomenon with ALL Icebergs (until they topple due to center of gravity shift) and it's the same here

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« on: July 23, 2020, 04:29:50 PM »
@Jim Hunt

Since this has been your baby in the past, would you like to open the NWP thread and/or poll for this year?

The rest / Re: Pareidolia
« on: July 23, 2020, 04:18:58 PM »
Cowboy Henk?

Lucky Luke quit smoking  8)

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Melting Season Predictions
« on: July 23, 2020, 03:41:37 PM »
3rd or lower - quite possible if weather stays favourable for ice retention.

That insinuates that current weather is already favourable... Yet century drops continue...

Good point, saves me one longer post  8)

The lines marking land in worldview do anybody know the source of them ?
Reason for asking is the attach picture, could this show what’s changed since the map was made? In Most other places the fit is much better, which make me curious.

To be honest, I don't think that this is the reason why they're off.

It's quite normal in many maps that try to draw lines along coasts that they are approximate and by no means accurate.

It could be that they're there to mask land once clouds block satellite views or there might be different motives depending on the map provider, not sure either.

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