Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - davidsanger

Pages: [1]
1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: July 02, 2014, 01:43:22 AM »


I have no idea if it is normal but 83 degrees at Inuvik seems quite high


http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/Inuvik+Canada+CAXX0632

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: June 28, 2014, 07:03:28 AM »
I think it was more like a -121K drop...

Yes of course, I forgot to update yesterday so that was the 2-day drop. thanks/fixed

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: June 28, 2014, 05:20:41 AM »
Jaxa Sea Ice Extent down -121,504 June 27th.
Only 222,653 above the all-time low for the date (2010)

[corrected]

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: June 23, 2014, 06:55:27 AM »
..2014 is so far behind that catching up to any of the bottom three years is moving further out of the realm of possibility with each day that passes.

Not sure about that for JAXA extent. 2014 was 508K above all time low for the date on 6/13 and now has closed the gap to 317K (though it got as close as 80K above all time minimum in mid-May)

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: May 15, 2014, 07:45:49 PM »
Jaxa Sea Ice extent now closing in on record lows for the date (2006 thru May 25th). Only 80K above the record yesterday.

6
Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?
« on: May 08, 2014, 11:11:49 PM »
CPC/IRI forecast probability now up to 78% for NDJ 2014

7
Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?
« on: May 07, 2014, 12:19:43 AM »
you can get the Long Paddock station daily SOI values at the following link:
http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

Daily SOI suddenly dropped to -34.68, lowest since Feb 2013

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: May 03, 2014, 08:58:02 AM »
I came across this 5/1 Sea Surface temperature map and you can see right at the top some very high SST anomalies west of Svalbard and also in the Beaufort Sea.

9
Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?
« on: May 01, 2014, 12:21:10 AM »

10
Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?
« on: April 23, 2014, 08:10:02 AM »
For the mathematically minded:
There are a few different methods of how to calculate the SOI. The method used by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology is the Troup SOI which is the standardised anomaly of the Mean Sea Level Pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin. It is calculated as follows:

 

                       [ Pdiff - Pdiffav ]
        SOI = 10 -------------------
                         SD(Pdiff)     
       
where
Pdiff   =   (average Tahiti MSLP for the month) - (average Darwin MSLP for the month),
Pdiffav   =   long term average of Pdiff for the month in question, and
SD(Pdiff)   =   long term standard deviation of Pdiff for the month in question.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/soi.shtml

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« on: April 19, 2014, 05:21:53 PM »
2012 didn't reach our current extent until April 30th!

In the IJIS/JAXA data 2012 had 5 days of record daily highs between April 16 and 21st before dropping precipitously the following week.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: April 16, 2014, 01:59:27 AM »
Here's the 2014 Jaxa extent vs. high and low extent for each day:

interactive version

 

13
Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?
« on: April 11, 2014, 05:33:03 AM »
However it is interesting to note from BOM:
Quote
The SOI is usually computed on a monthly basis, with values over longer periods such a year being sometimes used. Daily or weekly values of the SOI do not convey much in the way of useful information about the current state of the climate, and accordingly the Bureau of Meteorology does not issue them. Daily values in particular can fluctuate markedly because of daily weather patterns, and should not be used for climate purposes.
so some of the ups and downs are surely just daily weather...

14
Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?
« on: April 04, 2014, 05:24:19 AM »
The following link takes you straight to the most recently posted daily Nino3.4 provided by the Dutch knmi:

http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/inino5_daily.dat


Actually they seem to be the NOAA OISST.v2 weekly numbers interpolated.

Quote
"# NINO index # 5 (5=3.4) from <a href="http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/data/indices/">CPC</a>
# interpolated from weekly to daily values
# SSTa [Celsius]"

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« on: April 03, 2014, 03:22:35 AM »

...differences between now and the 2013 values in your posts?


You can see both years side by side in the daily file here

16
Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?
« on: April 01, 2014, 11:27:58 PM »
the following graduate paper...http://edocs.nps.edu/npspubs/scholarly/theses/2010/Jun/10Jun_Stone.pdf ...which found that, after examining a range of possible predictors of sea ice extent in the Beaufort Sea in October, including ENSO, the best was the SST in the CARRIBEAN (?!?) in May (!?!).

...if anybody has the ability to calculate if Stone's prognoses also hold good for 2010-2013, I would be very interested.

idunno :: I asked her on Twitter and Megan replied :

Quote
"I never verified as I lost access to the NSIDC dataset I was using when I graduated. I will let my professor (Dr. Tom Murphree) know and maybe he can get another student to verify and investigate the connection between Caribbean SSTs and Beaufort Sea SIC. thnx!"

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« on: April 01, 2014, 07:33:57 PM »
Speaking of 2012, I find it notable that IJIS extent is today more than 700,000 square kilometers lower than it was on the same day in 2012

Yes 2012 got off to a very slow start even setting daily high records (post 2002) for April 16,17,19,20.21 before nosediving.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 24, 2014, 04:52:01 AM »
IJIS/JAXA drop of -169,382 sq km  seems to be the largest daily drop of any day before June 1st in the 2003-2014 time period

[leaving aside a really bizarre drop/rebound on feb 29,2012]

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: March 23, 2014, 05:00:16 AM »
Jaxa/IJIS  down 122,970 in the last two days. Maybe finally turned the corner?

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 18, 2014, 05:28:50 PM »
IJIS Extent:
Seven of the years from 2004-2013 reached their maximum on or before this date

Jim, it looks to me that only 2010 (March 31st) was later in that period.

and also 2003 (March 21st)

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 09, 2014, 06:58:26 AM »
I wouldn't put much money on the chance that either area or extent have reached their respective annual maxima. No, not much money at all...

After today's century drop in JAXA (-120K to 14,083,339 km2) I see there's never before been a recovery after a century drop in March. Extent now second lowest for the date, just 40K above the 2006 figure

22
Arctic sea ice / Timing of reports?
« on: March 04, 2014, 06:59:28 PM »
What's the timing difference between JAXA and NDIC sea ice extent reports? Are they contemporaneous or is one delayed? Isn't at least one of them a 2-day average?

23
...it is better to hope for a large, but hopefully manageable climate shock, well before 2050..

Certainly here in California, if there were a series of smaller earthquakes [not the big one which will eventually occur] then people and governments would be galvanized to take better precautions and prepare. I wish it were otherwise but we are a stubborn species and we often don't change our ways until the last minute.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS/JAXA
« on: February 25, 2014, 04:46:25 AM »
IJIS:

14,000,104 km2  (February 24, 2014)  3rd lowest

going back down?

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 12, 2014, 04:35:30 AM »
As of February 11th 2014 the IJIS Arctic Sea Ice Extent is now at an all-time low for the date, 13,633,069 km2.

The previous low for the date was in 2011

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS/JAXA
« on: February 09, 2014, 05:18:07 AM »
Interesting indeed, as some folks once were debating that 2011 was actually had lower numbers than 2007...

2007 has the lowest extent for 9 of the days of the year (by date)
2011 has the lowest extent for 59 of the days of the year (by date)
2012 has the lowest extent for 129 of the days of the year (by date)

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS/JAXA
« on: February 09, 2014, 04:59:16 AM »
On Feb 8th the 2014 extent (13,669,885 km2) is now second lowest, just above 2011 (13,636,918 km2)

28


Les deux navigateurs français bloqués en Arctique sains et saufs à bord de l'Admiral Makarov

The two French sailors trapped in the Arctic are safe and sound aboard the Admiral Makarov

http://www.actunautique.com/article-les-deux-navigateurs-fran-ais-bloques-en-arctique-sains-et-saufs-a-bord-de-l-admiral-makarov-119866915.html

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS/JAXA
« on: June 06, 2013, 06:35:27 AM »
Interesting that the June 4, 2012 extent was 11,352,969 which was the highest since 2003..... and then came the rest of 2012

Pages: [1]