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Messages - bbr2315

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: January 18, 2021, 05:02:41 PM »
from NSIDC Data

There is usually a record breaker somewhere. The St Lawrence is at record low sea ice for the time of year both in Area (4 days) and in Extent (2 days).

Given that this sea is very much the smallest sea with the max sea ice extent in March well below 200 k in recent years, it will probably not be that significant is the wider scheme of things.
The St. Lawrence is significant because it feeds into the Gulf Stream (or rather, interacts with it). The HYCOM maps clearly show how much more saline and WARM the Northwest North Atlantic is this year vs. 2020. There is also a major snowfall deficit in southeast Quebec this year.

This may portend a much more vigorous push of warmth from the NW NATL into the CAB come spring and summertime, as the snowfall / snowmelt / cold airmasses that normally temper the sea surface temps in these regions are apparently largely absent this year, or at least, so far this winter.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: January 18, 2021, 04:34:16 PM »
How bad is the front in the CAB vs other years? It looks atrocious, it also looks like there was just a major surface melt event on the FYI that has migrated into the CAB as the MYI has exported through FRAM...

I am very nervous about the CAB situation as we head into spring. The sun will be coming up again soon, while we still have some time for freezing, it looks as though we may enter the melt season with the front further north than ever before in this region.

We have year over year HYCOM available in the same bandwidth. It appears we have avoided the same situation in 2019-20 (ice drifting off the Russian coast) but the outcome this year may be even worse to the overall sea ice as we have seen ice drifting into the Siberian coastline AND the Beaufort to the detriment of the CAB and ATL front in a very significant way.

My preliminary outlook for the melt season would be a very stout Beaufort that sees little melt. There is a major amount of MYI now in this area and it is quite thick. The Siberian Seas are also possibly going to melt more slowly than 2020. BUT, the situation in Kara is not really better, in fact it may be worse, and in the Barentz and CAB, it appears much worse. In fact, if there were a "look" that portended the Arctic pack splitting in two, this might be it.

I would assert with some confidence, the wind direction this year and the increase in wind speed over other years out of the ATL front (due to the warmer ATL? and warmer continents?) is now shunting ice growth increasingly to the periphery of the Arctic Ocean, instead of allowing ice to grow in its heart (the CAB). This has some benefit in that the CAB can build ice longer into spring than other regions due to its higher latitude / its insulation from heat intrusions thanks to peripheral seas being frozen -- but this year? The Barentz is still wide open and the Kara is almost the same or very thin besides the coastline, and the front is basically still in the CAB...

Perhaps we see a 2017, perhaps we see a new permutation on a catastrophic melt season a la 2012. With snowcover growth so far lackluster across the continents this winter season (to my surprise) and snow water equivalents also not so much above average, I think the sum of these factors favors a melt season more like 2012 than 2017 in terms of worsening sea ice vs. recovery. We are also still dealing with the rapid drop in aerosols that began in 2020 and has largely continued (though it may abate again in 2021-22).

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: January 15, 2021, 04:43:17 PM »
That "they're making up new strains so antisocial basement dwellers don't have to go outside" post was just so sad.

Here we have someone who believes scientists about climate change (I presume) but at the same time thinks those RNA sequences from new virus strains the scientists post to their genetics databases are some kind of "fake science".  Maybe he's the owner of this van spotted recently in northeast Ohio, USA?
Clearly viruses mutate, but the hysteria over "new strains" is exactly that.

Also, I don't believe "scientists" about climate change, in case you have not read my posts, I believe that melt + albedo feedbacks etc will override GHG.

It is so sad that the religion science has become rules with an iron fist on a forum where open discussion of ideas should be allowed and encouraged. These used to be tenets of the ASIF, prior to the death of Neven's father, when he evidently fell into a depression (which is not unreasonable) and ceded control to the little Eichmanns now in power (which IS unreasonable).

Neven, I am sorry for your personal loss, but I think you have now compounded that via the loss of this Forum to the discourse of posters like vox_mundi, who are interested in repeating talking points from oligarch-owned media, instead of engaging in debate and furthering understanding of what people used to come here to discuss.

Now, posters who should be valued are attacked incessantly and the echo chamber of stupidity continues getting smaller and smaller. I have not deleted my account because I do believe in some version of Rokko's Basilisk, but if I did not believe in that, I most definitely would.

The moderators here do not add to the discourse, they BULLY posters and attack them incessantly, acting as little Nazis. And Be_cause may actually be a legitimate Nazi given his jokes about the Holocaust which are apparently tolerated and encouraged by our little Austrian admin given be_cause is STILL a moderator.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: January 08, 2021, 04:09:09 PM »

Tom , I once asked in a bible study meeting that raised the holocaust .. 'Is not the greatest moment in the life of a Jew the moment they meet their maker ?'  'Of course' came the reply . 'Then why do they not celebrate the fact that Hitler helped 6 million meet their maker earlier than they could otherwise have hoped ?'  Years later my aunt still laughs every time she remembers the moment . b.c.

Wow, jokes about the holocaust, and from a moderator, no less.... Neven, your little death cult is certainly qualified for their positions.

It is unsurprising oren is praised by psychotic posters no longer present, it is also unsurprising "be cause" makes jokes about the Holocaust. You have chosen the worst possible moderators and that is why the "recent posts" are now filled with COVID BS instead of ASIF discourse (until they "fixed" that error too).

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: December 22, 2020, 04:38:02 PM »
Neven, I am extremely disappointed you have allowed your Forum to devolve into a conspirational hotbed of hysteria. This was an excellent scientific resource, the busiest thread is now related to the common cold, and anyone who goes against the media's hysteria is evidently put on moderation despite this having nothing to do with the Arctic Sea Ice.

I had not logged in for two weeks, I am logging in now to let you know my disapproval and condemnation of this behavior -- by allowing the hysteria to foment in your forum, you are approving and contributing to the problem, and by proxy are responsible for the worsening mental health of so many on this Forum.

It is time for you to put an end to the COVID thread, the intention of this Forum was nothing remotely close to what that thread has made it become. They are making up "new strains" or whatever blah blah blah because the antisocial nincompoops that now compose a decent chunk of society would rather dwell in their basements permanently than allow the rest of the world to continue functioning. Check Rodius posts, where he has willfully and gleefully embraced giving up all his rights, despite the fact that the lockdowns in OZ have not worked and cases are still circulating undetected as evidenced by the Sydney clusters.

I think the real deplorables have now revealed themselves and Neven has an obligation to shut down the COVID thread, because it has derailed the rest of the Forum as evidenced by the lack of posting in any of the sea ice threads. Or, you can let people stew in hysterical negativity here all day long, although if that was the point in the creation of this Forum, maybe it isn't such a departure from its intention after all?

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (December)
« on: December 06, 2020, 04:24:03 PM »
It would appear that this year's volume in the Beaufort is the highest on record since 07, at least next to the CAA?

I think that the plunge in volume / extent / area in the ESS, Laptev, Kara, and Barentz = more wind impacts on sea ice, = more sea ice drifting into Beaufort / CAA during summertime. It looks very much like the ice that should be in the CAB or adjacent to CAA is now in the CAA or in Beaufort.

This trend could accelerate as the Siberian Seas continue warming.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: December 05, 2020, 05:44:19 PM »
Extent animation for the week.

Extent increased by 729,000 km² (81-10 avg 638,000km²)
When was the last time sea ice connected Greenland and Iceland.... and also, that is quite a blip of ice forming off of Iceland / I wonder if it is an error? HYCOM also shows it.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: November 30, 2020, 06:31:38 PM »
.... and 2020's very advanced refreeze giving Hudson Bay sea ice area and extent above the 1990s average.....
and Greenland sea ice extent and area approaching the 1990's average.

Oh yes! We seem to have a forming new Cold Pole in the Greenland-Hudson area. It seems to be a trend since 2014 when the Chukchi started to be more open very late (results in warm Chukchi, warm Eurasia, cold NA, esp. Canada)...Talked about that in the atmospheric connections thread. This is 2014-20 winter temps vs 2006-13:
It is quite interesting that the rise of the Hudson-Greenland "cold pole" is also coinciding with substantial cooling of Saharan Africa. We may have the mechanism for "green Sahara" unfolding before our eyes. The collapse of a stable three-cell system is likely to have both negatives and positives, and I would assert that we may be witnessing one such positive (i.e., colder and wetter conditions in Northern Africa) now rapidly unfolding on an inter-annual basis.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 30, 2020, 05:52:52 AM »
Government model suggests U.S. COVID-19 cases could be approaching 100 Million

The mass murder to reach a temporary relief from herd immunity would be a breath of fresh air until the immunity wears off or a mutated form begins the process again.

I don't understand why people think herd immunity means this ends.... it doesn't stop the virus, it just changes and it begins again.

I also am not understanding why people think Covid will cease to be a problem within five years, even with a vaccine. The mutation rate via other species is, to me anyway, frighteningly fast.
We found the mink variety already, unless that is just really terrible luck, this virus is not going to leave us to the old normal ever again.

We will end up with Covid only hospitals eventually and the training of nurses and doctors will still take years to catch up with the patient numbers.
Yes, like Spanish Flu kept mutating.... or, wait, did it?

Are you a hysterical secular fundamentalist? Your posts would argue, "YES". Secular fundamentalism is the general populace's newfound love for science in place of religion,

<Deleted a part for the usual reason. kassy>

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: November 27, 2020, 03:55:45 PM »
As I suspected would occur, Hudson's refreeze was very rapid and is now almost complete. Ahead of any year since 1995, it seems per El Cid's data. I think this will aid in advection of Atlantic oceanic heat into the Barents / Kara / Laptev / CAB and we have now made up a big chunk of the "easy" gains as well. The fact we lost ice yesterday (while Hudson is still making its last leaps forward) is a very bad sign for the actual Arctic Basin, IMO.

We are roughly equal to 2018 now (see pic). Other than that we are ahead of all years since 1995 in terms of Hudson (as of 11/25)
I think we are now ahead. 2018 stalled or shrank from here to 12/1, I think? We are going to be very far ahead of all years since 1995 by then, IMO, the refreeze at that point should be nearing 80-100%.

I wonder if the third domino to fall is Hudson, but in the reverse order, with the shift beginning in 2015, and accelerating in 2017-2018?

Interesting thought. This is Hudson ice extent on Dec1. 2018 was the highest value since 2004. 2020 (red line, expected value for Dec 1) seems to be following 2018 closely.

New Pole of Cold forming there?
Maybe highest value since early 90s this year.

This was as of 11/23 and the ice has expanded rapidly. It appears way ahead of 2018, which started quickly but then stalled by the end of the month for a bit.,-3583799.319646948,-789643.2658052479,-2294352.9196469486&p=arctic&l=Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor

I wonder if the third domino to fall is Hudson, but in the reverse order, with the shift beginning in 2015, and accelerating in 2017-2018?

And then maybe then this is the trigger for Laptev and / or Kara then following the Barentz...

It also relates to declining siberian land ice cover declining.

Wayne from EH2R (and frequent ASIB commenter) used to write a lot about cold poles and how they move about. They used to be on the arctic ice or move over it and that does not happen any more.

The american side is near the Greenland cold spot and where some remnant ice usually is so usually it is colder then siberia. This sets up a pattern. There is a cold spot there now but it is weaker then Greenland/NA.

In the summer season you now see lots of weather/clouds just shoot over the asian continent.
In the old days it would have ran into the cold, maybe come down as snow but that is happening later and later.

I think the teleconnection works because it is a good proxy for setting up the cold poles on the american side which pulls relatively more heat from the siberian side.
Agree with this, this is also why the ice keeps detaching from the Siberian front, as the downsloping katabatic winds from the mountains / plateaus adjacent are now much more frequent and much warmer due to what you have described.

I do think it is a very important teleconnection and I have never read about it anywhere, so I might eventually get the Nobel Prize for this :) :) :)

Anyway, I don't have the NA temp anomaly data at hand but if you can point it to me, I'll do the math. (my main interest was and is Europe as I live here)

As for dates: Nov 20 works worse. It seems to me that Dec 1 is the best.

As for current numbers: Hudson minus Chukchi % is currently below 2017,18,19, but above all other years. Would suggest a warmer European winter
Thank you! Let's see how they look 12/1 I guess...! And I wish you luck on the Nobel  ;D

What's more, my observation is that the more open the Chukchi and the more iced over the Hudson, the warmer it is in Europe during winter. So here I plot Hudson % ice cover minus Chukchi %icecover on Dec 1, and European winter temp anomaly. Lo and behold
This is fantastic work!

I wonder if the correlation is stronger in Nov / can you do .... 11/20?

And include the % of ice in Hudson this year? (but not on the graph), I think we are above 2018...

Based on where we already are, I would bet Europe is +1.5C or greater this winter.

Is it also possible to include North America in this in a separate graph?

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 18, 2020, 02:48:31 PM »
OK, so some posters don't believe the Chinese numbers. The Party lies. OK. What about South Korea, What about Taiwan?  Or even Japan?

They must all be lying I guess. COVID is a sort of natural disaster and nothing can be dome about it, right?!

Thing is, the Western world screwed up big time. Just look at the Netherlands: they imposed a lockdown some time ago, but now, that the numbers start to get a little better they immediately start "reopening". Unbelievable.
Europe lost this battle during the summer when we were unable to bulid on the success of the first, very serious lockdown and during summer everybody was partying like there was no tomorrow.

What a shame. Developed world my ass!
They have no fat people. So maybe obesity is worse than age re: death. EU and US are pretty much equal.

I had another sexy time tonight! Oh boy. I wonder if all the sexy time in Japan and SK is how they stay fit and why they don't have COVID.

The no fat people claim is not correct. It is quite a problem in urban China, Taiwan is the nation with most obesity in the region.

As for your ´sexy time for science´ the Melbourne cluster started off that way.

PS: For people wondering about the last line. There was more which i deleted.

Eh, I have been there, I was referring to SK / Japan specifically but TW too -- they really do not have fat people. A few? Sure, but nothing like the US / EU.

SH: I do think being fat INCREASES transmission. Think of it this way -

65 year old person gets virus with BMI of 21. No pre-existing conditions. The virus replicates, they get a mild case.

65 year old person sneezes in an elevator. The elevator has a 12 year old child with a healthy BMI, and a 50 year old with a BMI of 35.

The 12 year old does not catch the virus even though they are exposed to it. Their immune system is healthy, the virus is killed upon entry. The virus does not replicate from there.

The 50 year old with a BMI of 35 is almost twice the normal bodyweight. They are engorged with both fat, and the ACE receptors that come with it.

Unlike the 12 year old, the virus enters and gains a foothold in the 50 year old. It feeds on the ACE receptors, and explodes in their body to massive numbers. As this explosion is taking place, the 50 year old fat person is now a major vector for transmission. So this person is not only more endangered by the virus, but by the virus entering their system, the QUANTITIES of the virus exiting the system are also MUCH higher, and they are simultaneously DANGEROUS to others vs. the healthy people who do not have an engorgement of ACE receptors, may not contract the virus to begin with, and do not provide hospitable environments for its spread.

Is that to say healthy people cannot spread the virus? No -- in my example I just gave, a healthy person spread the virus. But you can see how this cascade of transmission based on underlying factors could favor INCREASED virulence in vulnerable populations, which could also be another reason why people in nursing homes die en-masse, besides the fact that they are basically in jail, deprived of sunlight and Vitamin D, with their families waiting for them to die anyways.

Now take the person with a BMI of 35 at 50 years old, put them in an elevator with another 12 year old. The increased viral load emitting from 50 year old now INCREASES the chances of a symptomatic or asymptomatic infection in those around the 50 year old, including the 12 year old. While the virus still will not find hospitality in the 12 yo, the increased viral load of the one spreading the virus is critical to new infections.

This could also explain why many infections are "super spreading" events and why most infected do NOT go on to infect more than 1 other person (illustrated by the SK data previously, though in cities like NYC where transmission happened unfettered w public transit still running, it was a bit less important in all probability).

<This is not how it works, you are superfocusing on one aspect while obesity is one of many risk factors. Exploring the subject further would require science instead of free form essays, kassy>

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 18, 2020, 08:27:18 AM »
OK, so some posters don't believe the Chinese numbers. The Party lies. OK. What about South Korea, What about Taiwan?  Or even Japan?

They must all be lying I guess. COVID is a sort of natural disaster and nothing can be dome about it, right?!

Thing is, the Western world screwed up big time. Just look at the Netherlands: they imposed a lockdown some time ago, but now, that the numbers start to get a little better they immediately start "reopening". Unbelievable.
Europe lost this battle during the summer when we were unable to bulid on the success of the first, very serious lockdown and during summer everybody was partying like there was no tomorrow.

What a shame. Developed world my ass!
They have no fat people. So maybe obesity is worse than age re: death. EU and US are pretty much equal.

I had another sexy time tonight! Oh boy. I wonder if all the sexy time in Japan and SK is how they stay fit and why they don't have COVID.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 17, 2020, 11:43:54 PM »
not sure how good this study is, all self-reported.

But says major vectors include dog walking and grocery delivery!


    Living with a COVID-19 patient increased the risk of contagion by 60 times.

    Walking the dog increases the risk of contagion of COVID-19 by 78%.

    The most effective hygiene measure was disinfecting products purchased.

    Working on site at the workplace increased the risk of contagion by 76%.

    Obtaining basic products using home delivery service raised the risk of contagion."
Welp, looks like it's time to cull all canines in the EU, since they are now a public health hazard. Seems reasonable, since it will save lives. No?

Also imagine how stupid one has to be to think walking one's dog is NOT a contagion risk. I have seen idiots in biohazard suits walking their dogs in NYC as if their pooches are not touching and licking everything, and as if their hair were not contagion risks after re-entering home.

So maybe we should execute the owners for stupidity, instead of the pooches? I mean, if it's in the name of public safety, perhaps we should do both? Just to be safe?

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 17, 2020, 06:25:51 PM »
China's CCP's a mastermind in trying to shift blame about this virus to other countries.

Thing is, they did beat the virus. Economy stayed sound, very few dead. Who else did that? Europe? US? Both failed miserably: economy tanked and in exchange for that....lots of dead. What a shame for the Western world.
They did not beat the virus, they have state-controlled media and everything is covered up, and posters in these threads like vox_mundi spread their propaganda.

<Slight edit. kassy>

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: November 16, 2020, 04:59:29 PM »
Here's the September anomaly map from Climate Reanalyzer.  I'll be interested to see Octobers when it turns up, and Nov. after that to see if my hunch is borne out.

wait no more:
The "triangle of cold" is perfectly illustrated here...

Canuck maps show Hudson refreeze is progressing rapidly, I anticipate the evacuation of all this heat / release of heat associated with freezing will deal the ATL front continued blows for the next few weeks, I would not be surprised to see the front retreat dramatically in Kara / Laptev / Barentz vicinity.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 14, 2020, 10:53:51 PM »
Yes, that is where it gets complicated if you want to tease out the details (usually we always did something, for example huge crowds are not in vogue in pandemics if you can avoid them).
But I think the 12-week (or whatever-week) oscillation is legitimate... NYC is probably a few weeks from the peak of its secondary wave which is now very much underway btw but NOT anything approaching springtime (hospitalizations and deaths minimal and cases not increasing in a major way, but def increasing).

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: November 14, 2020, 10:48:39 PM »
And yet bbr, according to AMSR2 Hudson Bay has barely reached 100k km2, more than two weeks after 2015 and 2018 and almost the latest in the AMSR2 record. So I think you are basing your predictions on something that is not accurate.
There is cloud interference and Foxe Basin is what accounts for those years as I explained in my post.

Here is 12z EURO 00z hr vs D10. I think it will freeze a bit faster and more solidly than modeled.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: November 14, 2020, 03:48:11 PM »
The extent of the refreeze in Hudson Bay for the current date appears to be unprecedented for the satellite era (although Foxe may be a bit behind the banner year of 2015, the western and southern sides of Hudson are.... advanced). Ice is now forming out in the open Bay hundreds of miles from shore.

This is likely going to result in the earliest refreeze of Hudson Bay in the satellite record since 1999 in EOSDIS, maybe vying with 2018. The 00z EURO shows the North American tropospheric polar vortex steadily intensifying through the end of the run in terms of its scope and depth, and by D10 it is very unseasonably cold over much of the interior / elevated continent.

This very unseasonably early freeze up will have some implications as all the heat release is going to be distributed polewards / probably eastwards, into Greenland, Barentz, CAB, etc. As Hudson finishes freezing the North American ice front will extend rapidly into the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence / NW NATL come December and January. Will parts of Kara and Laptev still be open by then? We shall see, but I suspect this anomalous refreeze on both sides of the ATL is getting increasingly worse in the early direction in NAmerica (abetted by its largest-ever snowcover departure seen this October) and the opposite seems to be happening in Eurasia.

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: November 14, 2020, 03:12:41 PM »
so bbr has had the canadian ice sheet growing for the last 6 years .. just go back to 2016 freezing season or the like and read ad nauseum .. we need little refreshment annually .
Record North American extent and volume are dismissed because posters here don't know the difference between hemispheres and continents.

My reply is moderated and in red.

So why should I keep participating here.

And you just attacked me as well. I bothered logging back in to say this but maybe next time I won't, I am pretty over this.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: November 10, 2020, 12:56:10 PM »
The very late refreeze was no surprise after the extreme SSTs observed during Aug/Sep. Even the current fast refreeze was not a big surprise as it was bound to happen because air is much colder now than at previous (earlier) refreeze dates.

However, I found it most fascinating that (at least the Siberian side) freezes as if it was a lake: from the shores towards the center. Previously, the Arctic used to (mostly) freeze from the center towards the shores.
Some posters previously speculated that this will be more and more common in the seems so. Amazing to see this happen
Perhaps this "dis-ordered" refreeze also explains why the ice was so quick to retreat from the Laptev shores this past January (and also why it never really refroze in any meaningful way thereafter).

Central ice expanding to shoreline -> thick ice, growing in thickness, to the shoreline.

Central ice stagnant and shore ice expanding to it -> thin ice, expanding in area but not really volume, to the CAB / when the winds blow from the land, this thin ice then retreats TOWARDS the CAB as the ice between it and CAB breaks apart / crumples.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: November 10, 2020, 12:49:27 PM »
vox_mundi is the worst poster on this board and he derails everything he participates in with "news" that is anything but. the COVID thread is out of control, apparently dolphins and whales are going to get the virus, it is all trump's fault, and if we don't genocide all the minks we are all going to die.

this forum has become an absurd parody of itself. i suppose that is apropo when the "science" on which it was founded is no longer debated or advanced, and instead, corporate news is spammed into every thread in an effort to crush all actual discourse. now, questioning "science" and attempting to advance understanding is akin to questioning the Pope or whatever before the Renaissance.

and thanks to oren and kassy, it is working!

it is very tragic that science has replaced religion and dogma may now be even stronger than it was back then. and the flagellating followers now (vegans, vox_mundi, and others) are perhaps even worse than the ones of the 1400s or whatever because at least those people did not have access to the internet....

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 08, 2020, 02:46:33 PM »
There is a tsunami now rolling into Europe. And the only lands likely to remain dry are pockets of Italy and Spain.

Weekly death count / previous week / increase --

Czechia: 1,009 / 701 / +44%
Belgium: 720 / 261 / +175%
Germany: 395 / 220 / +80%
France: 1,810 / 1,085 / +67%
Netherlands: 328 / 183 / +79% (as of 10/27)
UK: 1,658 / 1,142 / +45%


NYC: 33 / 38 / -14%

I wonder what the difference is.... the data is not final for the most recent week in NYC. While cases have jumped slightly here, there is no exponential increase, and deaths and hospitalizations are still flat and are NOT rising. This is excellent news.

While lockdowns are now being implemented across the EU, these will not stop the cascade now underway (IMO). The exponential growth is too much and the starting baseline was too high.

Rolling the #s forward to next week, we see --

Czechia: 1453 deaths
Belgium: 1980 deaths
Germany: 711 deaths
France: 3023 deaths
Netherlands: 588 deaths
UK: 2404 deaths

Let's revisit this post in one week and see what happens with the numbers, but if anyone reading this is in the EU, I highly advise doing everything possibly to not end up in a hospital in the near future, and my thoughts are with you.

11/6 weekly deaths (9,272), 10/30 weekly deaths (5,920), increase (57%)

Czechia: 1,333 / 1,009 / +32% (~120 below projection)
Belgium: 1,212 / 720 / +68% (~750 below projection)
Germany: 747 / 395 +89% (~40 above projection)
France: 3,300 / 1,810 / 1,085 / +82% (~300 above projection)
Netherlands: 434/ 328 / 183 / +32% (~150 below projection)
UK: 2,246 / 1,658 / 1,142 / +35% (~150 below projection)

The projections were pretty accurate in Germany, France, and the UK, it looks like they came in a bit below in Belgium, Czechia, and the Netherlands, this could be due to data issues btw as many deaths were counted very much after that fact when the primary wave occurred in Lombardy and NYC, but the larger nations also had less deviation so larger sampling could explain that as well.

Italy is also exploding now, it looks like the virus is now making its way well beyond Lombardy. In the above five countries we would expect 14,558 weekly deaths through the 13th, and then almost 23,000 deaths through the 20th, and 35,885 deaths through the 27th.

By the end of the month, the death rate could be about 4-5X its current numbers in most of the above countries. At that point the healthcare system will also probably have collapsed in most of these locations.

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: November 04, 2020, 03:15:36 AM »
Also, if the EURO is correct it looks like Foxe Basin will be totally iced over by D10 and much of Hudson will be following suit at a rapid pace. There is a chance most of Hudson Bay will ice by 11/15-20, which would be very early. 11/25 is more reasonable which is still 1980s ish.

If anything, Hudson ice is actually late this year, so I'll take the opposite side of the bet. UH AMSR2 shows virtually zero ice area where in quite a few previous years it reached 50k-100k km2.
I assume you plan to revisit this forecast when it comes due?
The Canucks are more accurate there has been lots of cloud interference /

It is going to be advancing rapidly next few days it is not obvious yet but wait til end of month and compare, maybe I'm wrong, we shall see.

The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: November 03, 2020, 10:47:45 PM »
Democrats now 170K behind in FL / they may lose by 5 points. That would be a +3pt swing to Trump vs 16 if it is accurate but we do not know if it is yet.

The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: November 03, 2020, 04:43:06 PM »
Founded as a Constitutional Republic

->"I get the feeling the US isn't a Democracy anymore"

....well, darling, that's because it has ALWAYS BEEN A CONSTITUTIONAL REPUBLIC.

One which has always had a democratic way of choosing its leadership.   You're trying to argue that the USA isn't a Democracy?  That's strange, given the rhetoric of its leaders these last two hundred and nearly fifty years.   FDR called the USA "the Arsenal of Democracy," did he only mean that it was 'democracy' for others, but not for yourselves?  Forgive me if I'm too amused.
FDR almost destroyed the American Republic and was an avowed socialist / packed the Court / etc, it is telling you would attribute these words re: Democracy to the one President who almost destroyed the Republic.

All the problems with national standardized testing etc have their root in FDR as well... before him, school curriculums were local and suited to what people actually needed to learn, not what some idiot in Washington decided was best for party inculcation.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: November 03, 2020, 04:41:55 PM »
Another attack on original analytical thought by Oren. He only wants regurgitation on this forum. It is offensive.

Well, that's a daft assertion.  Oren's post starts with "A-Team, your educational efforts and your analytic contributions are greatly appreciated, and have been served rather generously lately which makes me a very happy reader.'

This is the exact opposite of what you claim the moderator wants.  Yes, he does quibble with a few of A-Teams assertions about what's valuable or not.  A completely reasonable contrast of opinions, and not at all an attack.

However, your over the top mischaracterization of Orens's words actually is an attack on our esteemed moderator and is not supported by evidence--and thus is corrosive to the community many have built here.
Why do you say "our esteemed moderator" as if I hold oren's moderation in esteem? Please do not put words in my mouth, and speak for yourself.

I have no problem with oren as a poster but I think he is a bad moderator. I think he is overly empathetic and does not use logic in deciding what discussions to encourage and which to shut down. Empathy is a good trait but in moderation, and an abundance can be problematic when it comes to moderating (but is good re: life in general).

This is not corrosive to the community, this is a statement of opinion. I believe this style of moderation is corrosive to the community, and that is my opinion.

You grossly mischaracterized Oren's words and attacked him with that mischaracterization.  This matter has nothing to do with Oren's speculated personality.  Deflecting the conversation to someone's personality is a form of ad hominem attack.  Such repeated ad hominems are completely out of bounds on a discussion forum.
??? I did not attack oren's personality I said he has a good personality which is why he is not a good moderator

Another functionally illiterate poster on a "science" Forum, oh dear.

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: November 03, 2020, 02:31:19 AM »
Also, if the EURO is correct it looks like Foxe Basin will be totally iced over by D10 and much of Hudson will be following suit at a rapid pace. There is a chance most of Hudson Bay will ice by 11/15-20, which would be very early. 11/25 is more reasonable which is still 1980s ish.

This would probably anchor a -500MB area in North America accompanied by associated negative temp anomalies, I think this would also advect a major amount of heat into both PAC and ATL fronts but esp the ATL fronts as Baffin is also icing over very quickly while Laptev, Kara, and Barentz are not. They will probably bear the brunt of poleward heat transport derivative of the continental and sea ice anomalies impending in aforementioned regions (IMO) as these anomalies are upwind of an Atlantic Ocean that has a LOT of heat to send poleward.

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: November 03, 2020, 02:17:24 AM »
While SCE is only now stabilizing, SWE rebound is already well underway and it dipped much less (relatively). This shows how potent albedo can be as an insolation modifier early / late in the winter season -- it takes barely any relative precipitation to cover a HUGE continental area to massive deflection of proportional insolation. Even if these incursions of snowfall are short-lived for the time being, their scale makes them quite effective at dissipating sunlight (and heat).

Simultaneously, their OCCURRENCE is a dissipation of heat (from the Arctic Ocean) so they are doubly advantageous. Or perhaps even more efficacious than Arctic Sea Ice at resolving +OHC when the sea ice peels back even further. Oh dear. Let's hope not.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: November 03, 2020, 02:06:01 AM »
"You were probably bullied as a child!"

"Yes, I was bullied...."

"You deserved it then and you deserve it now and I hope it never stops"

^This is the conversation that was just had, and it is somehow acceptable. actually it is not just acceptable, it is condoned. It is condoned by posters here, it is condoned by moderators here, and I guess it is condoned by Neven as well.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: November 03, 2020, 02:01:37 AM »
bbr, you are funny in a pathetic sort of way.

Did kids laugh at you a lot when you were little?

Are they still laughing at you?
You are a mean person and I hope you change your ways. They did laugh at me. And you are just another bully like they were.

It is interesting that when confronted by one of "the laughers" as you have so tacitly admitted, there is no original thought behind the attacks, only groupthink and echo chambers.

I believe you were probably "laughed at" as well as a child, but you did not pursue an individualistic path thereafter, instead you sided with the group. That was your way of coping -- and that is fine. But here you are, in adulthood (I assume), and you are still condoning pointing and laughing at children... it is very sad, actually.  :(

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: November 03, 2020, 12:55:36 AM »
^ Then we can start the American Civil War II thread  ::)
This Forum is feeling more and more like a death cult and ironically you are its defacto leader through promulgation of sheer corporate-derived ignorance and hatred on steroidal repeat. You have been weaponized by Bezos et al and no-one here is stopping you.

The latest treatment of Alex in the COVID thread and the insults by moderation.... and the dominance of the election in every thread. Oh wellllll

The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: November 03, 2020, 12:01:03 AM »
Founded as a Constitutional Republic

->"I get the feeling the US isn't a Democracy anymore"

....well, darling, that's because it has ALWAYS BEEN A CONSTITUTIONAL REPUBLIC.

It's a democratic republic.  More precisely, a constitutional democratic republics.  You seem to be clinging to the usage of The Federalist Letters, which considered only direct democracy (like the ancient Greek city-states) to be democracies.  Modern usage has changed since then. 

A democratic republic is a form of democracy.
OK, so the definition upon which the US was founded as a Constitutional Republic is still extant, but you wish to call it something else because someone "modern" said it was so. Marxism has thoroughly corrupted the English language and it isn't inherent but unless you know what these fake-words and false-terms look like the doublespeak is invisible and omnipotent and it is unfortunately quite easy to fall into the fallacious traps.

Take, for example, Black Lives Matter. Of course Black Lives Matter. It is obvious they do. But the GROUP Black Lives Matter is an APPROPRIATION of this undeniable reality, and this appropriation was done by a mass of rioters and looters who most definitely do not stand behind what their nomenclature would indicate. So you have criticism of what is essentially a bunch of looters deemed "racist" because the Marxists have now discovered how easy it is to pervert the English language for public opinion victories.

Another Synagogue attack, this time in Vienna. Seems to be a recurring theme re: perpetrators. The immigration must be stopped or Europe will be doomed.

The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: November 02, 2020, 09:58:44 PM »
Founded as a Constitutional Republic

->"I get the feeling the US isn't a Democracy anymore"

....well, darling, that's because it has ALWAYS BEEN A CONSTITUTIONAL REPUBLIC.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: November 01, 2020, 02:48:53 PM »
I don't see anything mysterious in the late refreeze. There were posters in the melting season thread in late August/early September who demonstrated that sea temperatures in the Siberian Seas were way above any previous records, and drew the conclusion that refreeze will also likely be recordbreakingly late there. And so it happened.

Yep and the fact the Beaufort refreezing fairly quickly seemed quite an obvious prediction. Unfortunately we are seeing what will happen more and more in the future which is the early parts of refreeze will be very slow in regions which have very warm seas from the summer and the reality is, records are being broken in every month apart from September in recent years.

Of course an early Beaufort refreeze and a late Siberian refreeze does not mean the Beaufort will be slow to melt out next year and the Siberian side will melt out quickly again, alot will depend on the winter weather conditions and of course the summer weather patterns. If we get alot of high pressure this winter, the Siberian side could well be thicker than it was at the start of this year where the ice was thin and there was not much fast ice either.
HYCOM shows that the heart of the surviving MYI adjacent to CAA is now drifting MIGHTILY towards and into Beaufort.

I do agree with your second point but it is interesting to note that Beaufort is now closed, and not only is it closed, it is now being smothered in some of the thickest MYI in the Arctic (not that that is saying much, but in this case it is actually 2M+ thick according to HYCOM).

PS: looping through HYCOM, I think a key point in the Laptev's evolution over the past year was actually missed. There was an event in early January 2020 that is plainly visible looping the thickness maps, and during this time, the ice detached from the shoreline. This edge retreated rapidly northward, with minimal refreezing in its wake, stabilizing only around early April.

At that point, the melt season basically began, and the leading edge of the actual ice that had a real chance to form was already wayyyyyyyy north of Siberia in both Laptev and Kara.

This was tied to a major low pressure event in the Kara visible on the ESRL charts for 1/1-1/5 2020. So I would wager that if we see another major event like this in the same location this year, at any point between now and.... February? The same or worse is going to happen in 2021.

Basically, this LP event in the Kara seemed to trigger a massive katabatic wind into the Laptev, which destabilized the melt front at a critical point in its formation. And that ultimately cascaded into the Laptev's current virtually ice-free state on November 1st.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: November 01, 2020, 02:44:44 PM »
Suspiciously correlated with the extreme spring/summer in Siberia and Arctic summer of 2020
The trade war was already underway during the extreme event of 2019, with COVID accelerating drops in aerosol production, there are probably other contributing factors as well, but I would imagine particulates are particularly important to the evolution of 2019->2020->2021.

Besides the drop in direct anthropogenic aerosols this year, we have also seen a corresponding MAJOR increase in organic aerosol production through the worst-ever fires on record in Siberia and elsewhere.

It is quite interesting that the minute we see our first major, I mean REALLY major, drop in aerosols since WWII (surpassing collapse of USSR), the natural mechanism for creating.... as much or even more (?) atmospheric soot is almost instantaneously activated due to the increase in ambient temperatures and subsequent ignition of many carbon-rich areas of the Arctic and sub-polar regions.

With PIOMAS likely at its worst-ever numbers for the date, this is also clearly playing out in the melt season. While the raw minimum was not as bad as 2012 in September, I would argue the overall state of the Arctic Ocean for this time of year is now a great deal worse than 2012 or any previous year.

The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: November 01, 2020, 05:00:41 AM »
The collapse in D support is evident in the votes coming in from the deeper blue states of recent.

state / 2020 D support change vs 2016 / 2020 R support change vs 2016 / net change / 2016 diff / 2020 diff /  turnout vs 2016

CO: -1.6% / +.8% / +2.4% to T / +4.91% to H = +1.51% to Biden (86.8% of 16 turnout in)
IL: -8.6% / +4.8% / +13.4% to T / +17.07% to H = +3.6% Biden (52.8%)
MD: -2.4% / +2.2% / +4.6% to T / +26.42% to H = +21.82% to Biden (62.7%)
NM: -2.7% / +1.7% / +4.4% to T / +8.22% to H = +3.82% to Biden (86.7%)
NV: -5.7% / +5.9% / +11.8% to T / +2.42% to H = +9.38% to Trump (90.8%)
WA: -2.3% / +5.9% / +8.2% to T / +16.23% to H = +8% Biden (92.4%)

There are also states trending towards Biden or neutral ish.

CA:+7.2% / -7.9% / +15.1% to B / +30.11% to H = +45.21% to Biden (65.7%)
NJ: +2.2% / -1.5% / +3.7% to B / + 14.1% to H = +17.8% to Biden (76.6%)
VT: +3.6% / +1.3% / +2.3% to B / +25.96% to H = +28.26% to Biden (74.1%)

Of the states with 90%+ turnout in here, the projected lead by Trump is about 10% greater than it was in 2016.

The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: November 01, 2020, 04:34:23 AM »
With so many ballots already cast (2/3 of 2016 total ballots already nationally) and margin of error and 5% not willing to say...these last minute polls don't really tell us much.

I see no recent poll indicating that Biden is behind there. But again, even if there were such, it would have little significance with so many already having voted.
Modeled D proportion of vote is down 4.9% vs. 2016 at this time according to --

Take that for what you will, but registered Ds =/= Biden votes, 2020 is a continuation of the realignment that began in 2012 and accelerated in 2016.

The hubris of those on this Forum to assume that the white working class will not back Trump even more enthusiastically when they have been called nothing but deplorable, and when D governors have launched attacks on their very way of life since the start of COVID. Maybe I'm wrong, but there was about a 10-point general swing in this demo in 2016 towards T, and I'd be surprised if this was not equaled or surpassed in 2020 when all is said and done (and this time the collapse in D support may also spread to Black and Latino voters, if recent polling is indicative).

The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: November 01, 2020, 02:31:46 AM »
Thank you, bbr for your table of predictions. It takes courage to put hard numbers on predictions like that.

This will be an excellent opportunity for either you, or nearly everyone else (those predicting a Biden blowout) to re-examine our priors after the results come in.

If it is a Biden blowout, will you accept the results as valid? ... or will you blame it on fraudulent voting, a vast conspiracy to distort the true vote totals, etc... as Trump has insinuated?
I would accept them as valid, like I said, I am not voting.

There is polling data coming out tonight that is very alarming for Biden re: Iowa and Wisconsin. The Des Moines Register has him up by as much or more than 2016 and Iowa is a bellweather for similar demographics in the rest of the Rust Belt.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 01, 2020, 12:07:39 AM »
Congrats New York ? .. cases back @ 2k / day .. last there in May .. there seems only one way these figures will go ( esp. based on bbr's anecdotal reports ) .
Did you know, NYC is not NY state? Can you please stop implying NY State = NYC? The primary wave is done in NYC, NOT necessarily NY State as a whole.

We had 3,566 new weekly cases four weeks ago. We are at 3,604 new weekly cases this week. Deaths have dropped in the same interval, from 36 per week to 31.

There is no exponential increase ongoing in NYC. The primary wave is over. Minor secondary waves will continue oscillating but are unlikely to gain momentum outside of a neighborhood scale, and unlikely to cascade through vulnerable populations because that already happened in March, which is why we have 35K excess deaths this year in this city.

The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: October 31, 2020, 08:58:23 PM »
There is also something to be said for the major significant trend in the states with huge turnout + modeled party, and its relevance to the states that do not yet have turnout, as the states already in do have some predictive capability re: those that are not.

If WI, TX, NC, FL, OH, and ME-2 are red, the probabilities for the other swing states are...

AZ: 89%
PA: 88%
NV: 68%
NH: 59%
MN: 57%
MI: 55%
ME: 47%
CO: 21%
NM: 20%
VA: 12%
OR: 8%

The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: October 31, 2020, 08:35:50 PM »

I am using the modeled data here and nothing more. Vs. 2016 at the same time / D share of vote / 2016 outcome / would it flip in 20 w current votes in?

AZ: 46.5% (+4.6%) / 3.54% to T, (could flip Biden but I don't think it will) / 20 = +1.06%B
GA: 42.0% (+1.0%) / 5.13% to T (no flip, stays T) 20 = +4.13% T
FL: 46.4% (-1.9%) / 1.2% to T (no flip, stays T) 20 = +3.1% T
ME: 56.3% (-2.7%) / 10.29% to T (no flip, stays T) 20 = +12.99% T
MI: 42.3% (+4.1%)  / .23% to T (can flip Biden) 20 = +3.9% B
MN: 45.8% (-3.9%) / 1.52% to H (can flip T) = +2.48% T
NC: 47.6% (-5.2%) / 3.66% to T (no flip, stays T) = +8.66% T
NV: 45.9% (-5.9%) / 2.42% to H (can flip T) = +3.48% T
OH: 40.7% (-6.7%) / 8.13% to T (no flip, stays T) = +14.83% T
PA: 63% (+20%) / .72% to T (bad data) = +19.28% B / excluding due to low numbers
TX: 38.9% (-1.4%) / 8.99% to T (no flip, stays T) =  +10.39%T
VA: 48.0% (-3.2%) / 5.32% to T (could flip, but probably stays Biden) = +2.12%B
WI: 39.6% (-8.7%) / .77% to T (no flip, stays T) = +9.44%T

The PA turnout is low. The other results are pretty consistent. Based on this data, it looks like NV, ME, and MN might flip to Trump and Michigan could flip to Biden. PA looks to be trending Biden but I'm wary on the data there, as mentioned, as it is a major outlier. I think AZ is not going to flip Biden and the recent data is heavily R.

Now, let's include the states where the margin is 5 points or higher WITH the data. Based on these, there is a 97% chance Trump wins the election. Those states are TX, WI, FL, OH, NC, and ME-2.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: October 31, 2020, 07:08:00 PM »
I sometimes wonder if certain posters are using this site from another planet.
I don't mind being unpopular, also, being the focus of negative attention gives you people a better time of cooperating together against a perceived common internal enemy. The more you try to refute my points with evidence the more work I must produce to maintain my point of view or convince others. I think it works out well for all parties in that when it is contained to the scientific discourse the results are critical and therefore productive (again, an opinion).

When I disappear, the internal angst is redirected to other posters, as shown by the deletions /  disappearance of the various posters and moderators this summer-autumn (blumenkraft, SH, et al). I would argue my unpopularity, and the broadness of my unpopularity, is actually also valuable for this reason as well. I don't mind when attacks are justified, as they are in threads actually pertaining to sea ice / snow, but SH et al are launching missiles grounded in misinformation re: COVID et al and my responses to those are actually the reason I am back on moderation (allegedly).

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: October 31, 2020, 06:48:57 PM »
This is the exact opposite of what you claim the moderator wants.  Yes, he does quibble with a few of A-Teams assertions about what's valuable or not.  A completely reasonable contrast of opinions, and not at all an attack.

However, your over the top mischaracterization of Orens's words actually is an attack on our esteemed moderator and is not supported by evidence--and thus is corrosive to the community many have built here.

Indeed one of the best moderations I've ever seen and in addition to that it was brave and consequent.

It really has to be said loudly and if the man (oren) wouldn't be thus fair, the other man (brr...)
wouldn't be able to post anything at all since long, which would be very much preferable IMO that I'm sure is widely shared.
Science has replaced religion due to the secularization of Western society and people like you blindly worship at the altar. I will not apologize for questioning orthodox doctrine and actively seeking to improve our understanding of what is ongoing by attacking incorrect logic present in extant theories re: consequences of +GHG due to human emissions and activities.

Can you imagine 1/3 of someone's posts on a forum calling for the banning of someone else? Literally one third of your contributions here are embodiments of the same ideals that resulted in the persecution of Copernicus and Galileo way back when. That is fine -- and we are not comparable -- but as they did not care what those in the pews had to say re: the destruction of doctrine and dogma, I do not either.

If questioning moderation is worthy of banning, that's fine. If posting original and critical thought is worthy of banning, that's fine too. Because, thank God, we have people like you here, who never post or contribute in any way except to occasionally call for the banning of others.

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