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Messages - wili

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Walking the walk / Re: When was the last flight you took?
« on: April 18, 2019, 05:13:04 PM »
Neven wrote: "Clothes will always be a problem, even though we buy almost everything second-hand."

We do too. Unfortunately, our main source for used clothes locally just closed shop :/

I was surprised to see that my biggest carbon footprint wrt clothing was my shoes. Basically none are made locally or even in the US, so there's the transport issue. And they're heavier than most other individual pieces of clothing. I also have weirdly wide feet (sextuple E!) so can't easily get them used, even if I were so inclined.

But I try to mostly focus on the big contributors (flying, diet) and worry proportionately less about the minor ones (clothing, straws, etc).

I think flying for job should partly be counted toward the people who own the business and use its service. But yeah, if your job requires a lot of travel (and so many do), one might want to look for a different job eventually. I probably lost my last job partly because I wouldn't fly to conferences to hear talks I was not interested in and give talks no one else was interested in.

Walking the walk / Re: When was the last flight you took?
« on: April 18, 2019, 05:50:35 AM »
"What that lifestyle looks like deserves more attention than ICE verses EV "

I agree (as usual, with you). That whole discussion bores me to tears, when it doesn't infuriate me. And I bought an EV more than ten years ago.

I too find I am driving more than I wish, since my urban farm is a couple miles from my home, and various heavy materials need to be transported...and, I'm getting old, fat and lazy :/

Walking the walk / Re: When was the last flight you took?
« on: April 18, 2019, 01:46:10 AM »
The last holiday flight I took was the summer of '03 to Paris. There I witnessed first hand the first major event that could very reliably be directly attributed to GW--the deadly heatwave that killed tens of thousands in France and Europe in just a few days. I had been thinking of giving up flying before then, but that really helped me decide. I had committed myself to one other event that required flight the next year, but I haven't flown since, and have pretty much given up any long distance (beyond ~10 miles) travel powered by fossil-death-fuels. I don't really miss it, and feel much more locally focused now.

The rest / Re: Climate change activists should not fly
« on: April 16, 2019, 08:43:49 PM »
Nice one, Neven.

Saying, "Well, I am not a climate change "activist" (though I am a bit of a prolife activist)." is basically saying I'm so obsessed with controlling women's bodies that I can't really be bothered with trying to help save all complex life forms on the planet.

The rest / Re: Empire - America and the future
« on: April 08, 2019, 05:56:36 AM »
"The Cato Institute is an American libertarian think tank headquartered in Washington, D.C. It was founded as the Charles Koch Foundation in 1974 by Ed Crane, Murray Rothbard, and Charles Koch, chairman of the board and chief executive officer of the conglomerate Koch Industries. "

Soooo, people get lambasted here for citing established news sources, but Koch-founded rightwing think tanks and other rightwing propagandists are just fine with everybody (not to mention RT, etc)? Really?

I'm just trying to understand the rules, here. What kind of a site are we trying have here, exactly?

Walking the walk / Re: Top climate-friendly actions
« on: April 07, 2019, 12:18:43 AM »
Top actions are non-actions--mostly stop consuming:

"We’re gobbling up the Earth’s resources at an unsustainable rate"

Arctic sea ice / Re: Are 3 dimensions better than 2?
« on: April 06, 2019, 04:56:46 AM »
Since we've entered the field (dimensions?) of romance, may I point out that Edwin Abbott managed to create romance in two dimensions (though the third eventually intrudes):

Flatland: A Romance of Many Dimensions is a satirical novella by the English schoolmaster Edwin Abbott Abbott, first published in 1884 by Seeley & Co. of London. Written pseudonymously by "A Square",[1] the book used the fictional two-dimensional world of Flatland to comment on the hierarchy of Victorian culture, but the novella's more enduring contribution is its examination of dimensions.

But in romance and in ice dimensions, quality is at least as important as quantity. :)

The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: April 02, 2019, 09:16:52 PM »
Thanks for the clarification.

The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: April 02, 2019, 08:58:01 PM »
Sidd, the one you most recently posted, from "The American Conservative"

The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: April 02, 2019, 02:57:14 PM »
sidd, what's worth reading about it? It's just another tired rehashing of the standard, rightwing conspiracy theories.

The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: April 02, 2019, 02:38:50 PM »
KK, think what?

Any article that talks about fake journalism that doesn't start with the utterly consistent falsehoods coming out of Faux News is simply right wing propaganda. And lo and behold, a quick search reveals that the author is...surprise surprise...a right wing propagandist!

It isn't hard most of the time to figure this shit out. I guess mostly people don't because they're too lazy, perhaps? Or just don't care?

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: March 24, 2019, 06:47:39 AM »
"Talking points distributed by the Republican National Committee encouraged Trump's allies to stress that "after two years, millions of taxpayer dollars, and multiple congressional investigations confirming there was no collusion, it's good this report has finally concluded." "

So nice to see that some here are staying so well on script! :)

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: March 23, 2019, 06:17:03 PM »

Obviously, no more indictments are going to come directly from Mueller, since his report is done. But lots of other spin offs are going to continue.

Talk about buying into the media hype...sheesh!

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March mid-monthly update)
« on: March 19, 2019, 02:41:10 PM »
Thanks tons, as always, for these amazing graphs and maps.

To me, the decadal average graph tells the clearest big-picture story of the of where we've been and where we are going.

The rest / Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« on: February 21, 2019, 03:57:15 PM »
As long as there is both an obscenely enormous gap between the haves and the haven'ts, and as long as Citizens United stands, there is no chance we will have anything like a real democracy. Even then, there will be lots of class, race, gender, and other structural impediments to gaining democracy.

Policy and solutions / Re: BAU until they peel my cold dead hands from it
« on: February 19, 2019, 05:05:18 AM »
ger, thanks for the post about Rabaul. I was surprised to hear how very few people died, and how well the well-prepared-for evacuation went, even though there wasn't a lot of time before the warning and the eruption.

I have a feeling there is some kind of lesson in there for us, but I'm not quite sure what it is...

Policy and solutions / Re: BAU until they peel my cold dead hands from it
« on: February 19, 2019, 05:02:06 AM »
Arch wrote:
If the plan is to collapse our world to save the world, then we should all expect to be part of the population reduction. We should not think for one second that "we" will survive while "they" will die...

Indeed, if one were to plan some kind of magic reduction in world population to reduce the severity of the now inevitable catastrophes coming our way, the best place to start would be the richest 20% of the world population, who do about 80% of the consumption and so of the ecological destruction. I'm quite sure that would include just about everyone on this board.

One can't 'quickly' reduce population in a humane way, if by 'quickly' means "in less than a decade or two." And we do need rapid reduction to zero and beyond of ghg emissions. The only thing that can get us close to there in 5 - 10 years is, as you say, lots more efficiency, even faster build out of alternative energies, but also great reduction of consumption, especially 'non-essential' consumption. Ultimately, these could also be viewed as essentially kinds of efficiency--in most cases, it is not efficient to feed 7.3 billion people on high-meat diets, not to zip them around the world on airplanes...

But back to population...the humane way to reduce population is, of course, to insure women's rights and their free access to education and to healthcare, including contraception and abortions. This has been shown to not only reduce on average the number of new births, but also leads to women having their first (and often only) child at an older age, and of course spacing generations out further can have a dramatic impact on reducing the total population. And of course you get the added benefit of happier women and a more just society as icing on the cake (or really maybe that's the cake below the icing!? :) )

Making gentle voluntary euthanasia more widely and easily available, as they have done in The Netherlands, I hear, could also be an important component. This also brings with it less horrific final days, and less money wasted hopelessly trying to keep dying people alive while making their last days a terror.

But nearly all these approaches fly in the face of the goals of growth-based capitalism. For this and other reasons, many people see that as one of the biggest obstacles to moving forward (not that socialism by itself is any guarantee of a green economy).

What is and is not politically possible is not really anything that anyone can very accurately predict. Few people could have accurately predicted the timing of the fall of Apartheid or of the Iron Wall, and few, even of his supporters, really thought that Trump would win...

There are stirrings among young people that I find hopeful, but of course the time is way past late.

Policy and solutions / Re: BAU until they peel my cold dead hands from it
« on: February 18, 2019, 02:13:26 AM »
"I agree that BAU will kill us all. I know that with certainty. But sudden "not BAU" might fail to feed all 7 billion people"

Sooo, BAU kills us all for certainty, while not-BAU 'might fail to feel all 7 billion people'

Hmmm, I think the second is the better option. Especially since BAU is already not adequately feeding all 7 billion people.

Some elements of the Green New Deal go beyond BAU, so that's a start. But really we have to walk away from car culture, plain culture, cow eating culture as quickly as possible Every burger no produced frees up lots of nutrients that can give us wiggle room for the inevitable failures that will come about in the transition.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: February 16, 2019, 09:52:23 PM »
Thanks, kassy. I fixed the link.

I wondered about that last last quote, too. Many of the canals in the Netherlands are very beautiful.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: February 16, 2019, 07:49:58 PM »
Yeah, otherwise known as 'crossing the Rubicon'!

He has indeed just openly declared that it is all about expedience, and has nothing to do with emergency.

Just ran across this nice essay that some may enjoy (sorry if it's already been posted here and I missed it):

I'll just give the finale here, but the whole thing (not long) is worth a read:

Quote’s impossible to read a single tweet, or hear him speak a sentence or two, without staring deep into the abyss. He turns being artless into an art form;

He is a Picasso of pettiness; a Shakespeare of shit.

His faults are fractal: even his flaws have flaws, and so on ad infinitum.

God knows there have always been stupid people in the world, and plenty of nasty people too. But rarely has stupidity been so nasty, or nastiness so stupid.

He makes Nixon look trustworthy and George W look smart.

In fact, if Frankenstein decided to make a monster assembled entirely from human flaws – he would make a Trump.

And a remorseful Doctor Frankenstein would clutch out big clumpfuls of hair and scream in anguish:

‘My God… what… have… I… created?

If being a twat was a TV show, Trump would be the boxed set

The rest / Re: The problem of Corporate Democrats and how to kick them out
« on: February 15, 2019, 03:47:16 PM »
Sounds like we finally have a 'kumbaya moment' here!! :)

And all prompted by the brave and truthful words of my awesome Rep, Ilhan Omar. She was the first person that my daughter got to vote for, and right when we came back from the polling place, there she was at our front door, with one of my daughters good friends who was helping to make a film about her. Believe me, she is every bit as poised, bright, and wonderful in person as you see her in her fierce questioning of the slime bag Elliott Abrams!

Consequences / Re: Effects on Arctic Wildlife
« on: February 14, 2019, 08:15:14 PM »
How about 'Killer Scots,' then?  ;D :P :)

Policy and solutions / Re: US Green New Deal
« on: February 11, 2019, 05:06:41 PM »
For the record, I agree that socialism is no guarantee of low emissions. On the other hand, if your goal is both adequate human welfare and small footprint, I think we will need some system that at least incorporates some aspects of socialism.

As I recall, Cuba is the only country that has ever hit the sweet spot of low percapita foot print and adequate human well being (according to a WWF survey a few years ago), and surely that had something to do with their socialist policies (as well as being in the midst of their 'special period').

But yes, we have to move beyond these 19th century ideologies if any part of the human project is going to make it into the next century with anything like a civilization.

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: February 10, 2019, 04:15:24 PM »
They meant University of Chicago.

(Seems like a strange thing to get worked up about. It's a British publication, so maybe give them a bit of a break on not getting US institution's names exactly right. In any case, easily checkable if you really were concerned that Archer, one of the most famous climatologists, by the way, is a real person...)

Glaciers / Re: Himalayan glaciers
« on: February 04, 2019, 01:48:26 PM »
A third of Himalayan ice cap doomed, finds 'shocking' report

Even radical climate change action won’t save glaciers, endangering 2 billion people

At least a third of the huge ice fields in Asia’s towering mountain chain are doomed to melt due to climate change, according to a landmark new report, with serious consequences for almost 2 billion people.

Even if carbon emissions are dramatically and rapidly cut and succeed in limiting global warming to 1.5C, 36% of the glaciers along in the Hindu Kush and Himalaya range will have gone by 2100. If emissions are not cut, the loss soars to two-thirds, the report found.

The glaciers are a critical water store for the 250 million people who live in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) region, and 1.65 billion people rely on the great rivers that flow from the peaks into India, Pakistan, China and other nations.

“This is the climate crisis you haven’t heard of,” said Philippus Wester of the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (Icimod), who led the report. “In the best of possible worlds, if we get really ambitious [in tackling climate change], even then we will lose one-third of the glaciers and be in trouble. That for us was the shocking finding.”...

The forum / Re: Milestones
« on: February 04, 2019, 01:14:13 PM »
Congrats, Neven!

Walking the walk / Re: Terra Preta / Biochar - Theory and Practice
« on: February 03, 2019, 05:01:29 PM »
I gotta ask, Bruce, does your place just smell like bacon all the time? :)

And if you give it enough time, composted pig manure should be fine on anything. It can't be more dangerous the humanure, can it? And I assume you are familiar with that book/concept? But maybe that would require using too much space for too long?

That's quite a tale, sidd. Thanks.

I dunno where you are, but here in Minnesota the temperatures we are experiencing now are mostly not unprecedented, but they were never very common...maybe once or twice a decade on average. Also, some people are remembering earlier much lower wind chills, but the formula for calculating those changed some time ago, so those are not reliable.

Climbing into the mere single digits below zero F later today will feel like a heat wave after what we've been through!

-55 F wind chill here in Minneapolis (-48 C). Most everything is shut down, including postal service. But I'm going out in a few hours to make tons of soup for the homeless and anyone else who wants it. Probably minestrone. Anybody have good recipes?

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: January 24, 2019, 11:57:02 AM »
Since 'extinction' and 'abyss' strike me as similar, I thought I'd put this here. We so often get wrapped up in technical issues, whether about ice or cars or politics. This paragraph, to me, sums up the deeper and even more urgent need to re-examine our priorities:

We’re told, often enough, that as a species we are poised on the edge of the abyss. It’s possible that our puffed-up, prideful intelligence has outstripped our instinct for survival and the road back to safety has already been washed away. In which case there’s nothing much to be done. If there is something to be done, then one thing is for sure: those who created the problem will not be the ones who come up with a solution. Encrypting our emails will help, but not very much. Recalibrating our understanding of what love means, what happiness means – and, yes, what countries mean – might. Recalibrating our priorities might.

An old-growth forest, a mountain range or a river valley is more important and certainly more lovable than any country will ever be. I could weep for a river valley, and I have. But for a country? Oh, man, I don’t know…

Roy and Cusack.  "Things that can and cannot be said"

"...the degree to which aerosols cool the earth has been grossly underestimated..."

That sounds...rather bad!

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: January 20, 2019, 02:46:09 PM »
Sounds like this may be fake news:

Ruth Bader Ginsburg Is Not Fighting ‘For Her Life’ With Pneumonia, Despite Outlet’s Claim

Science / Re: Underground temperatures trends
« on: January 17, 2019, 10:58:24 AM »
Thanks for these, Bernard.

We have learned that over 90% of global warming has actually been warming of oceans. But I have never seen something that quantifies what portion of warming has actually gone into heating the land itself. If anyone has such info, I thank them in advance for sharing... :)

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: January 13, 2019, 09:24:53 PM »
There will also likely be an increase in biological activity on and in the ocean floor, both microbial and more complex life forms. These are of course hard to model, but could burrow into methane pockets, releasing the gas more quickly than a merely physical model would suggest is possible.

And then there are slopes. I large release at a crucial point along a slope could cause a kind of un-zippering effect, iirc.

I think we can't be complacent about these possibilities, but at the same time they all just mean that we have to double down on reducing our lion's share of the contribution in hopes that the optimists are right and that these more rapid release mechanisms don't end up coming into play, at least at current levels of warming.

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: January 06, 2019, 06:36:54 PM »
Sig, I'm not a twitter-er. Can you explain briefly what is on the video? Or is it a kind of joke that would be ruined in the explaining of it?

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: January 06, 2019, 06:29:48 PM »
sidd wrote:
I have no doubt that in the event of widespread crop failure the starving would switch very quickly to vegetarian diet. Hunger is a powerful motivator.

Not sure what you're talking about here. Most of the world's poorest billion or so people are already living near-vegan diets. The problem is (and almost always is) the world's wealthy eating meat, the livestock for which are eating the grains and beans that could have provided good nutrition for the poorest, especially since livestock are not particularly efficient at turning plant protein into animal protein...something like ten pounds plant protein to yield one of animal protein, especially cattle. (Yeah, yeah, they could be raised on inedible-to-us grasses, but most are at least finished with corn and soybeans.)

During the potato famine, most of the Irish poor were subsisting on potatoes, if they could get them, and not much else. But at the same time that millions were starving or emigrating, beef was being exported from Ireland to the British elite. Common sense and basic humanity has little to do with these things, as Swift so well satirized in his famous, "A Modest Proposal."

So, given that income inequality is at an all time high, I'm quite sure that even if there were widespread crop failure, the rich would still be arranging to have much of the little grain and beans left fed to cattle for their elite consumption. The whole point of being rich, after all, is so that you don't have to share one whit in the suffering of others, however widespread and horrific. But yes, the rest will be left with a largely 'plant based' diet, but not likely one that will be sufficient to keep body and soul together. 

Thanks, FB. I had heard about Foehn winds, but hadn't thought about how they might relate to lapse rate. Makes sense to me! Is this more of a factor in Antarctica than in most of the Arctic?

Already, corporate dems are working to limit what progressives can do with a 'pay as you go' rule:

The rest / Re: Ukraine, Nazis and western support
« on: January 02, 2019, 09:54:42 PM »
Ah, whataboutism. How original!  ;D ;D ;D

Thanks, as always, aslr!

The rest / Re: Ukraine, Nazis and western support
« on: January 02, 2019, 04:30:38 PM »
Harvard Library lists Greanville Post as a fake news site...just sayin'

Thanks, as always, aslr

Thanks, sidd.

So in the tropics, the lapse rate (basically the change in conditions, in this case temperature, as you move up through the atmosphere, iirc) involves a warmer upper troposphere, leading to more loss of radiation from the top of the, a negative (damping) feedback on global warming.

But in the Arctic, less heat accumulates in the upper troposphere (because of lack of water vapor to conduct it up there??), so less heat is released to space, leading to a positive (exacerbating) feedback.

And this study found that this lapse rate feedback dominates others in the Arctic, as I understand it. Is that likely to change somewhat as water vapor levels increase in the region?

The rest / Re: Immortality
« on: December 31, 2018, 05:09:46 AM »
Thanks, Tim. Have read and taught Ishmael many times. I agree that it's essential, if not perfect (what is?)

Eager to check out Forbes.

And I'm perfectly happy with 'obscure'! :)

The rest / Re: Immortality
« on: December 31, 2018, 03:18:25 AM »
"civilized culture all around the world could certainly do with some (non metaphysical) soul searching to see why it is they hold some of the assumptions that this now worldwide culture does, and how common some of those hidden premises actually are, and where they actually came from, and when, and why, and what problems that causes that show up in the anthropological footprint over and over again wherever civilization has gone"

Yes, to me, too, this seems about the most important activity to be engaged in, but I rarely come across it, and when I bring it up, I tend to get similar responses (and non-responses).

Are there any fora where you have been more successful in sparking a meaningful dialogue along these lines, and are there any resources you could recommend for those interested in pursuing it?

From the abstract:

"polar amplification is found to be dominated by forcing in the polar regions, specifically through positive local lapse-rate feedback"

Could you or someone explain a bit about what exactly lapse-rate feedback is, hopefully in terms that I and others can understand?

It sounds like it's pretty important, and it seems like a gap in my GW knowledge I'd like to fill.

Thanks ahead of time for any light you can throw on this.

Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: December 31, 2018, 03:10:29 AM »
There is, though, a strong trend in the 'hot daily lows' graph, which is just where one would expect the clearest and earliest trends to be detected in a planet being over-heated by greenhouse gasses (as opposed to, for example, increased insolation).

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: December 28, 2018, 06:09:57 AM »
Yes, good and sobering article. Thanks, Bruce.

One question. The article says, "As temperatures climbed toward the 10-degree mark, the model’s oceans became depleted of oxygen, a trend scientists are evaluating in today’s oceans, too."

So does the heating itself cause the oxygen depletion directly? Or does acidification or some other intermediary play the crucial role?

Is it just the issue that gas passes more easily from water into the atmosphere at higher temperatures?

(ETA: Ah, I see I missed this a bit below the sentence I quoted: "But warm waters can’t contain as much dissolved oxygen, which means less was available to them.")

Consequences / Re: Volcanoes
« on: December 24, 2018, 01:25:57 PM »
FD wrote: "Runup height reported from Java at 19 meters..." then later "...10 meters..."

Where are you getting these figures from? I don't see anything that mentions heights more than 10 feet (which is plenty bad enough).

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: December 21, 2018, 09:03:22 PM »
Thanks again, Bruce. Interesting about cannabis, but also about vineyards. I was just trying to brush off my Latin with Cato the Elder's De Agri Cultura (~160 BC) and noted that his advise to new farmers was that of all the use you could put farms to, grape vines was his first choice. Mast orchards (glandaria ) were fifth or sixth, about the same as orchards combined with grape vines. Grain was pretty far down, too, probably because they were already getting lots of cheap grain from North Africa by then.

Anyway, I, at least, do appreciate your updates.

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