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Messages - Gizmo

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 20, 2020, 01:20:51 AM »
Rod - thank you for posting that very disturbing image from the North Pile. Simply amazing. This is not your grandfather's Arctic anymore.
UCMiami - maybe not a scientist but excellent post.
Marcel g I agree, if this rotten ice survives it will be by the skin of its teeth. And it still needs to hold on for several tough weeks.
Glen K thanks for the data, I am betting melt ends later now than it used to, especially bottom melt. Surely also starts sooner, for the same latitude. This is not your grandfather's Arctic anymore.
     I can see why you would think that top and/or bottom melt would end later now given the continuing trend of global (and doubly so) Arctic warming.  But that raises a question of if that's true, why don't we see later dates for September minimum?

Because it still gets darker and cooler on the surface, I guess.

What about annual volume minima?  Have those been trending later as things warm up?

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 13, 2020, 08:10:01 PM »
Looks breezy through the Fram over the weekend.  But the wind direction seems like it would tend to move the ice towards northern Greenland and through the straight into the warm Atlantic.  Might we see that patch of rotten ice above Greenland break up further and get hammered?

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 31, 2020, 09:46:29 AM »
An update on the side by side comparison. Those apparent concentration drops are looking more real than not.
Slightly higher res version on twitter, for those without data limits: https://twitter.com/Icy_Samuel/status/1289080922617372672

(Large file, click to play)

That is amazing.  Fingerprint of the storm.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 30, 2020, 09:28:21 AM »
I don't think any of us is irrelevant.  And your concern is well founded.   

lots of very thin ice, much of it just rubble according to our eyes in the sky.  And, depending on which thickness map you look at the thick multi-year ice is pretty much gone.

Lots of warm water.

And August doesn't start until tomorrow.

I'm new here but I've been following the ice...pretty much since 2012, when it really got my attention. (thanks Neven)   And I'm starting to see why Friv' is so.... passionate.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 29, 2020, 09:13:14 PM »
:o

JAXA arctic sea ice volume

Well that's terrifying.

To quote jdallen, "The import of this on weather in more densely inhabited latitudes is profound."

I'm expecting a truly bizarre winter this year here @ 47 degrees north.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 28, 2020, 07:53:37 PM »
Ouch!  Bye bye Beaufort ice.  Looks like the CAA will get broiled too.
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GIF!

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 21, 2020, 09:28:03 PM »
It's looking like we're very likely to see a new record minimum this Sept.  I'm not imagining a BOE this year but some of these 'worst case' extrapolations look close enough to put us very close to one or another of the tipping points mentioned here.  The more I look at what's happening now the more worried I get about next summer.  There's going to be record amounts vulnerable of FYI.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 09, 2020, 10:28:26 PM »
This animation seems to show a lot of transport south through the Fram being driven by the GAA.  How does this compare with satellite era averages for the summer months?

Wipneus's regular updates in the PIOMAS model thread includes a graph of fram export volume with the seasonal average: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg271734.html#msg271734

Thanks, just what I was looking for. 

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 09, 2020, 08:57:51 PM »
Long time lurker but this is my first post here.  The first of what I'm sure will be many questions:  This animation seems to show a lot of transport south through the Fram being driven by the GAA.  How does this compare with satellite era averages for the summer months?

update on buoy drift using iabp data for whoi itp buoys, apr-jul7

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