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Messages - glennbuck

Pages: [1] 2 3 4
1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: Today at 12:13:14 AM »
M'Clure Strait breaking up today.

Last clear skies we had over Franz Josef Land in the Arctic Ocean on the 3rd August.

2
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 07, 2020, 10:30:05 PM »
A British man says he accidentally threw away over $80 million worth of bitcoin.

James Howells, an IT worker from Newport, claims to have unintentionally dumped 7,500 bitcoin in mid-2013.

He is now planning to find them, but isn’t sure how, as he believes the hard drive he saved them to is currently buried in a landfill site.

The value of the cryptocurrency was around $130 at the time Howells claims to have thrown the hard drive away. It is currently worth $11,350 (£8,435).

“In mid-2013 during a clear-out, the hard drive – then worth a few hundred thousand pounds – was mistakenly thrown out and put into a general waste bin at my local landfill site, after which it was buried on site.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/bitcoin-value-james-howells-newport-landfill-hard-drive-campbell-simpson-laszlo-hanyecz-a8091371.html

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2020
« on: August 07, 2020, 07:59:46 PM »
JAXA:  1.95-2.45 (HIGH)
NSIDC:  2.20-2.70 (HIGH)


JAXA:  2.50-3.00 High
NSIDC:  2.75-3.25 Medium

JAXA:  2.75-3.25 High
NSIDC:  3.00-3.50 High


4
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: August 07, 2020, 07:46:15 PM »
I just mean in general game changer this year, thinness of the ice, possibility of a GAC.

Area is likely to be 1st, very tight race, the next 3 weeks are going to be very interesting.
 

5
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: August 07, 2020, 07:27:01 PM »
Here we go. Give it a gentle click, please.

Wow, Awesome to see! It is Game on for the 2012 records! Roller coaster next few weeks.

6
The Next Global Depression Is Coming and Optimism Won’t Slow It Down

A depression is not a period of uninterrupted economic contraction. There can be periods of temporary progress within it that create the appearance of recovery. The Great Depression of the 1930s began with the stock-market crash of October 1929 and continued into the early 1940s, when World War II created the basis for new growth. That period included two separate economic drops: first from 1929 to 1933, and then again from May 1937 into 1938. As in the 1930s, we’re likely to see moments of expansion in this period of depression.

https://time.com/5876606/economic-depression-coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR20Ifrcn2SSKE9y8dNLWXkXtFdTf0dav1ws1dZ1Igc82LCpgJ5KS0sVQCc

7
Consequences / Re: Global Dimming - The aerosol masking effect
« on: August 07, 2020, 05:39:05 PM »
But volcanic gases like sulfur dioxide can cause global cooling, while volcanic carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, has the potential to promote global warming.

SO2 causes Global cooling, a reduction would therefore cause global warming.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 07, 2020, 04:49:54 PM »
This.

This is what I was getting at with the comparison post (of ice quality) I was getting at a few days ago.

I think the purple areas are a good preview of what our end of season extent will look like.

Extent will make a run at 2012, but not make it.

Area may quite likely drop below 2012, 16 & 19.

(Edit: I expect volume to drop in the tank, becoming lowest on record).

Yep i am thinking along them lines too.

Area is likely to be 1st, very tight race, the next 3 weeks are going to be very interesting.

I think we still have a chance of a record low Extent, judging from these comparisons from 2012.

It would need to be a record amount of Melt to pass the 2012 extent though, a GAC could be the difference between 1st and 2nd.

2012, Sea Ice Concentration. August the 4th and August 9th.

Comparison on August 6th 2020.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 07, 2020, 12:21:20 AM »

Leads at the N. Pole, even substantial ones, are not that unusual.

When we have open water at the N pole, and no ice within 100km, then it will be notable.

You could get that Picture soon, the next 5 days surface temperatures around the North Pole are up to +2C, with thin ice already in that area, +5 days at 1C to 2C, we will see what it is like on the 11th August.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 06, 2020, 10:02:56 PM »
JAXA AMSR2 Arctic Sea ice average thickness, this was not available for the 4th of August and it looks like it set a new seasons record low beating 2015,s record low, that was set later in August. Moved back up today on the 5th August.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 06, 2020, 04:59:52 PM »
Good view of parts of the Greenland Sea today and the Fram Strait

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 06, 2020, 04:41:20 PM »
Arctic sea ice area for Aug 5th,  3,506.560 km^2. NSIDC Daily Area.

lowests minimum: 2.241 (2012), 2.477 (2016)


13
Consequences / Re: The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event
« on: August 06, 2020, 11:05:21 AM »
As it happens, only recently, inordinately high levels of methane emissions have been reported, to wit:

(1) Methane Observation – October 2019 -“This is the most powerful seep I have ever been able to observe… No one has ever recorded anything similar.” (Source: Research Vessel Encounters Giant Methane Seep in Arctic Waters, The Maritime Executive, Oct. 10, 2019) The quote is from Igor Semiletov, professor Tomsk Polytechnic University on the research vessel Academic M.A. Lavrentyev on a 40-day Arctic mission.

(2) Methane Observation – December 2019 – Three months later at COP25 in Madrid, Dr. Peter Carter, an IPCC expert reviewer, in an interview d/d December 10th, 2019, referenced an ongoing eruption of methane above Barrow, Alaska, saying: “We’ve never seen anything like it. And, it has stayed at elevated levels to the present week. Looking at the 2.2 million year ice core, the maximum methane concentration ever was 800 ppb. In Barrow, Alaska it is 2,050 ppb and staying there. It’s been up there for 4 months.”

A note about the Barrow observation – Dr. Peter Carter believes the origin may be permafrost decay from land. However, according to Dr. Wadhams, he’s not so sure of Carter’s explanation and even though the waters offshore Barrow are not known to contain subsea methane, it is theorized the 4-month extremely high CH4 reading may have originated at ESAS and drifted, a theory with forceful negative ramifications.

The Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory was established in 1973 by NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Earth System Research Laboratory to track hourly methane readings.

https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/01/17/the-rumbling-methane-enigma/



Dr Peter Carter: summarising the lack of "climate emergency" at #COP25

14
Consequences / Re: Global Dimming - The aerosol masking effect
« on: August 06, 2020, 10:14:43 AM »
I think it's called "weather".
July was a different story than June.
Meanwhile, temperature anomalies keep going down, in both NH and SH.

Many records broke this year without an El Nino like we had in 2016.

Averaged as a whole, the January–June 2020 global land and ocean surface temperature was 1.07°C (1.93°F) above the 20th century average of 13.5°C (56.3°F). This was only 0.05°C (0.09°F) shy of tying the record warm January–June of 2016. According to a statistical analysis done by NCEI scientists, the year 2020 is very likely to rank among the five warmest years on record.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: HYCOM
« on: August 06, 2020, 03:05:28 AM »
While HYCOM seems accurate around North Greenland for the 11th August. It has 2-2.5 Metre thick ice where it is open sea in the Northern coast of Ellesmere Island in northern Canada, near the Ward Hunt Ice Shelf in the Arctic Ocean, across for 150 miles west on the 6th August!

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 06, 2020, 02:39:24 AM »
Will be able to buy a supercomputer at this rate, i use a rubber keyboard for spills and a desktop is safer and easy to upgrade compared to a laptop with two monitors is nice. Great this is sorted and Matt can get on with his great job we all appreciate your awesome work. 

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 06, 2020, 01:20:35 AM »
The Lincoln Sea open water today.
Northern coast of Ellesmere Island in northern Canada, near the Ward Hunt Ice Shelf view of the open water in the Arctic Ocean.

18
Consequences / Re: The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event
« on: August 06, 2020, 12:08:02 AM »
Losing the remaining Arctic sea ice and its ability to reflect incoming solar energy back to space would be equivalent to adding one trillion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere, on top of the 2.4 trillion tons emitted since the Industrial Age, according to current and former researchers from Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego.

At current rates, this roughly equates to 25 years of global CO2 emissions. It would consequently speed up the arrival of a global threshold of warming of 2ºC beyond temperatures the world experienced before the Industrial Revolution.  Scientists and analysts, including the authors of an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report released in October 2018, have stated that the planet runs the risk of catastrophic damage ranging from more intense heat waves and coastal flooding to extinction of terrestrial species and threats to food supply if that threshold is passed.

https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/research-highlight-loss-arctics-reflective-sea-ice-will-advance-global-warming-25-years

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 05, 2020, 08:29:35 PM »
Can we send money through Paypal?

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 05, 2020, 07:59:03 PM »
North Greenland ice moving into the North East Greenland area where a gap is opening into the Greenland Sea. Notice the open water to the NNE of Greenland also.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 05, 2020, 02:14:44 PM »
Earthquake, M 5.3 - north of Svalbard

2020-08-05 08:48:06 (UTC)

87.349°N 6.505°E

10.0 km depth

approx: 200 miles from the North Pole.

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000b9kr/executive

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: August 05, 2020, 02:13:02 PM »
Earthquake north of Svalbard.

M 5.3 - north of Svalbard

2020-08-05 08:48:06 (UTC)

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000b9kr/executive

23
Antarctica / Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE
« on: August 05, 2020, 01:24:52 PM »
June 2020, Zonal mean C, +7 C!

24
Consequences / Re: Global Dimming - The aerosol masking effect
« on: August 05, 2020, 12:19:25 PM »

Would there be any physical reason for the effect to only be seen in the high Arctic and in 925Mb temps? If not, signal should be seen in other regions and for different elevations.

Perhaps the reduction in Russia of Oil, Gas and coal production due to the fallout of reduced demand globally would have a larger effect on the region of Siberia and the Arctic first from the reduction in the aerosol masking effect.

Other countries that do not produce Oil and Gas and mainly run on a service economy with low manufacturing output, would have a lower regional effect in the short term. Would the effect be more noticeable in the short term in places like the Arctic that is warming twice as fast as other parts of the globe.

25
Covid-19 crisis devastates Spain’s tourism industry

The sector has recorded its worst semester ever, with a 97% drop in visitors and 750,000 jobs at risk

"The Spanish tourism sector has lost 27.3 million visitors and €28.4 billion in revenue in the first half of the year compared with the same period last year. And the new outbreaks, coupled with travel advisories issued by several countries, suggest that things will not improve significantly during the second half of the year."

https://english.elpais.com/economy_and_business/2020-08-05/covid-19-crisis-devastates-spains-tourism-industry.html?fbclid=IwAR32Osp_UMZZ1yWh5JYBoEXPT4YH2UCEncENIDLmTeX3mdrPgkIk6V9A3QA



26
The rest / Re: Port of Beirut Explosion
« on: August 05, 2020, 11:06:47 AM »
The explosion destroyed the country's largest port - which will now make it harder to import food and other aid - as well as silos that contain the national grain reserve. Lebanon imports up to 80 percent of its food needs and is particularly reliant on imported soft wheat to make Arabic flatbread. About 85 per cent of the country's cereals are stored in the facility, according to trading company Mena Commodities.

Last week, Save the Children reported that in the Greater Beirut area almost one million people do not have money to buy essentials, including sufficient food. This number included more than half a million children, the NGO said.

"We will start seeing children dying from hunger before the end of the year," said Jad Sakr, acting Country Director of Save the Children in Lebanon.

Lebanon is going through an economic crisis, exacerbated by the pandemic. Since September last year, prices for basic items such as food and shelter have soared by 169 per cent, while unemployment has risen up to 45 percent.

https://www.abc.net.au/triplej/programs/hack/beirut-explosion-blew-up-wheat-port-in-city-of-hungry-children/12526984

<striped facebook tacking code from the link - BK>

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: August 05, 2020, 09:27:51 AM »
Hypothetically what are the implications of the CAB breaking in half and 1-2 million km^2 heading for the Russian cost. How long would it take to float to the Russian coast or melt in the warm waters in the ESS/Laptev sea?

28
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 05, 2020, 03:02:58 AM »
UK IFR 1.65%, IFR 1.99%, excess deaths IFR 2.28% Fatality rate. UK and Australia update.



29
The rest / Re: Port of Beirut Explosion
« on: August 05, 2020, 02:42:41 AM »
Back-of-the-envelope

Hiroshima bomb ~ 10 - 15 kilotons TNT

2.38 kg of ammonium nitrate = 1.00 kg of TNT

2750 tons = 2.75 kilotons AN = 1.16 kilotons TNT

~ 8 - 12% of Hiroshima bomb

Minor Scale, a 1985 United States conventional explosion, using 4,744 tons of ANFO explosive to provide a scaled equivalent airblast of an eight kiloton (33.44 TJ) nuclear device,[14] is believed to be the largest planned detonation of conventional explosives in history.


Ok nice, this explosion is being compared to this past explosion in Texas in 1947.

The Texas City disaster is generally considered the worst industrial accident in American history.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_City_disaster

30
The rest / Re: Port of Beirut Explosion
« on: August 05, 2020, 01:26:48 AM »
20% of the Hiroshima nuke ...



Terrible video from this, 20% of the Hiroshima bomb, where do you get them stats from

32
Consequences / Re: Global Dimming - The aerosol masking effect
« on: August 04, 2020, 11:38:08 PM »
Yeah, but what is that in absolute numbers (i.e. Gigatones)?

A lot someone can work it out for the globe maybe, an example i have is Australia Bushfires was 50% of there yearly CO 2 released and 14% of there forests destroyed in one season.

Australian CO2 emissions have surged by 250 million tonnes as a result of bushfires in New South Wales and Queensland.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/12/australia-bushfires-co2-emissions-climate-change/

The reduction in SO2 would maybe be more of a problem.

Volcanoes emit sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the upper atmosphere, known as the stratosphere. This is above the troposphere where weather actually happens. This impact can last several years unlike industrial aerosol sources which go into the troposphere and are rained out typically in less than a week.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 04, 2020, 11:29:44 PM »
The North pole today, 40 miles North is open water and 120 Miles North a larger area is opening up. From the true North Pole all direction point south.

The North Pole is the North Pole of course, but in magnetic terms, it’s the magnetic South Pole. However at some point in the future the poles will ‘flip’ and compasses will point south. Then the North Pole will be the undisputed North Pole.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 04, 2020, 10:52:47 PM »
NNE of Greenland  breakup is accelerating today. As far as 300 Miles North of the North Greenland coast.

35
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 04, 2020, 10:25:21 PM »
Sweden has an advantage of low average population density, 32 / km2. Many populous countries have an average of 5-10 times more (of course this really depends on the density of the regions with most people, adding a desert or a frozen tundra only skews the statistics). I think this, along with high compliance of the population, and probably more outdoors than indoors and more open windows than closed windows during summer, is what helped Sweden avoid the fates of countries that were hit much worse.

Sweden has not done that well, many died in Nursing homes like the UK they gave them morphine and refused them Oxygen, a Swedish doctor exposed this and it went mainstream.

Sweden population is 10 Million with 5,747 official deaths. If we scale up Sweden to the UK population 10 million x 6.7= 38,504 deaths.

Dr. Tallinger reports from Sweden


36
Consequences / Re: Global Dimming - The aerosol masking effect
« on: August 04, 2020, 10:09:04 PM »
But there was also an unprecedentedly high amount of Arctic wildfires. So there were aerosols.

Maybe 10% factor the Arctic wildfires but the reduction in Industrial activity was reduced by 20% Globally for 3 months. The USA had a second quarter GDP drop of 32.9%, flights are still running internationally at more than half the pre-covid period in August. Reduced Aerosol masking effect is ongoing.

37
Consequences / Re: Global Dimming - The aerosol masking effect
« on: August 04, 2020, 09:53:52 PM »
Zack's plot also shows just how anomalous May through July was. Here is 70-90N 925Mb temps for the same span of months over the years

Maybe the reduced aerosol masking effect is starting to come through in the data.

38
The politics / Re: Why CHAZ failed
« on: August 04, 2020, 12:15:00 AM »
Gun sales are booming as the Covid-19 pandemic wrecks the economy and volatile protests dominate the news. Handguns are flying off the shelves. And ammo is so hot, it’s hard to keep in stock.

The gun industry is experiencing a revival amid the worst economic contraction in history, fueled by fears of coronavirus, crime and civil unrest. Guns were in demand during the economic turmoil of the second quarter, as gross domestic product experienced a 33% plunge.

“This is unprecedented,” said Larry Hyatt, owner of Hyatt Guns in Charlotte, N.C. He said that sales doubled in March, after gun stores were declared essential businesses.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/aaronsmith/2020/08/01/covid-19-and-civil-unrest-fuel-comeback-for-gun-industry/

<removed tracking code from the link - BK>

39
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 03, 2020, 10:19:52 PM »
To all the anti-vax, anti-mask, anti-everything people, this is the logical conclusion of “freedom”.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 03, 2020, 02:32:33 PM »
Open water around 40 miles from the North Pole. August 3rd

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 03, 2020, 09:39:49 AM »
Lincoln Sea, August 2nd, open water where the Multi year thickest ice used to be!

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 03, 2020, 02:18:40 AM »
More concerning this year is the state of the ice between G'land and the pole .. clear view all the way today . Few significant floes , lots of mush and quite a lot of open water

It looks like a large section will break off and drift into the Barents sea!

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 03, 2020, 12:39:14 AM »
Ice Concentration/Thickness not looking good going forward to 7th August, projection from DMI. Thickness might not be accurate as it shows 2-3 Meter ice being melted in North Greenland. if that was happening there would not be much ice left by the middle of August! The 2m temperature anomaly in the Arctic today was 2.1 C above average.

44
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 02, 2020, 11:49:25 PM »
Dr John Campbell has looked at peer reviewed research papers and Obesity is the highest risk factor for hospitalization with Covid-19 and deaths, followed by heart disease and diabetes. As western countries have higher rates for these three Comorbidities, the UK and USA has 30% and 40% Obesity

Higher diabetes rates and Obesity compared to Japan and South Korea/Asia. Factor in the UK and USA governments are more bothered about the Economy than saving lives in the Pandemic, opening bars and restaurants too soon. The smaller Democratic Socialist countries,Norway/Switzerland/Austria/Denmark/Iceland/New Zealand etc have handled the Pandemic far better.   


45
Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: August 02, 2020, 07:11:06 PM »
Living in the Time of Dying

Living in the Time of Dying Documentary 53:51

If we accepted the climate science was true, how would we choose to live and what would matter to us? This is my journey exploring these topics.  Interviews with: Author of " Deep Adaptation" Professor Jem Bendell, Dharma teacher and author of "Facing Extinction "Catherine Ingram, journalist and author of "The End of Ice" Dhar Jamail and Elder, teacher , author and Citizen of the Chiricuhua Apache Nation, Stan Rushworth.

https://www.livinginthetimeofdying.com/documentary?fbclid=IwAR3TUozlFJOaH4F0--R6Wixm_Bcuzxe-c7zCLKoEhjX6oyAwxNEBBl0i3oo

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2020
« on: August 02, 2020, 05:23:43 PM »
JAXA:  1.95-2.45 (HIGH)
NSIDC:  2.20-2.70 (HIGH)

JAXA:  2.50-3.00 High
NSIDC:  2.75-3.25 Medium

47
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 02, 2020, 03:39:38 PM »
The White House has made an ad about how things are going, and it’s surprisingly honest and informative.


48
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: August 02, 2020, 03:16:07 PM »
Why do the Media make statements that the Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet but not include the other countries declaring they are warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet.

Russia/Canada/Australia declared last year they are warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet. Europe declared there land temperatures are 2 C above Pre-industrial, land and sea temp around 1.25 C. So would the statement be more accurate if they said the Arctic is warming twice as fast as some parts of the planet. Unless the case is, most of the planet is warming twice as fast as we are reporting to the general public?

49
The politics / Re: Why CHAZ failed
« on: August 02, 2020, 02:55:32 PM »
The City that Really Did Abolish the Police

Behind that image is a years long story of how Camden officials transformed policing in a city where the murder rate was once on par with Honduras. The police were despised by residents for being ineffective at best and corrupt at worst. Today, violent crime in the city has decreased, and police officers are a regular presence at community block parties.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/06/12/camden-policing-reforms-313750

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 02, 2020, 02:22:36 AM »
Interesting chart for the season, will of contributed to the central arctic sea concentration/area drop.

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