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Messages - TerryM

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Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: February 11, 2019, 11:34:56 PM »

The measured growth of renewables that you've noted will have a hard time keeping up with the additional load that EV's are expected to require. Rather than closing down a coal plant to replace it with solar and wind, all three will be needed just to service the additional demand.

I fear that even as we increase the percentage of renewable energy, we'll also increase our use of ff generated electricity.


Policy and solutions / Re: US Green New Deal
« on: February 11, 2019, 09:53:22 PM »

In a global scale we are going to have to do like Cuba.  We are going to have to adapt and become inventive in everything we do. In Cuba the government got in the way if invention and free thinking. The GND should empower individuals  and communities to identify their vulnerabilities fix them.

Could you provide an example of either?


Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (January)
« on: February 11, 2019, 01:36:34 AM »

Simply Wonderful!


The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: February 09, 2019, 11:01:06 PM »
I thought Elane Morgan had the transition pretty much nailed down with her aquatic ape hypothesis. A prolonged period of exploiting the tidal reaches, using the high protien harvest available there, the closer for me was that menses ceases whilst swimming.

"The Naked Ape" by Desmond Morris opened my mind to the possibility of an aquatic ancestor. Living in a commune at Ortega Hot Springs convinced me that those ancestors were on to something good. :)

The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: February 01, 2019, 11:10:18 PM »
This is much better than the average Russiagate-New-Cold-War-McCarthyite hysteria.
Because who would know more about criminal hierarchy in a post Soviet State than a politician attempting to advance his own position in a post Soviet State. ::)

Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: February 01, 2019, 04:37:11 PM »
I'm not sure that there is any practical difference between Chris' 95% and Gavin's 80% as I don't believe achieving either is remotely possible - barring a massive die off that would leave no one alive to read the dials.

A hopeful, uplifting paragraph should follow the one above. Something to inspire the vegan cyclists  growing kale in their kitchen window that have voted Green since James Hansen addressed Congress in 1988, but nothing hopeful or inspiring comes to mind. :-\

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: February 01, 2019, 03:28:47 AM »

"Diseased sea stars develop progressively worse dermal lesions , arms detach from the central disc, and gonads spill from fully reproductive stars and individuals die, often leaving white piles of ossicles and disconnected limbs"

I'm eternally grateful for not being susceptible to this particular disease!

Strange that they're tracking temperature anomalies rather than absolute temperatures. I would have thought that the delta between Alaskan waters and S.California water would exceed the difference in anomalies at either location.

You mention jellyfish blooms, does this indicate that they typically go through boom/bust cycles, that the masses I encountered might in a short time die off?

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: February 01, 2019, 02:08:36 AM »
The CSA believed Musk when he contracted to put their satellites in orbit, them couldn't deliver.

Not sure about last delay, but delay before was a problem with the satellite which SpaceX is not responsible for. SpaceX has got lots of boosters available now and in each of first seven months of 2018 they launched twice a month, in the six months since they have only launched 8 times. Not sure but I suggest this could well be commissioning slowdown following 4 months out of service after Sept 2016 failure.

Blaming SpaceX as a convenient target for your ire when the indications are that the blame lies elsewhere does not reflect well on you.

Sorry about the off topic, but it didn't seem appropriate to leave this.
I'll get back to you when I've again assembled the data.
My recollection is that the contract written in 2003? was for a specific date in 2018, and that the satellite problems had been identified and repaired sometime years prior to 2018.
How these repairs could have had any effect on Spacex's inability to fulfill the terms of their contract is anyone's guess.
Please don't accept the above as fact - I'll get my ducks in a row & then respond with links. :)

Increasingly warm winters punctuated by extreme cold snaps.

To try and convince those who won't buy this argument and consider this too counter-intuitive, being immune to figures, stats, mean values and so on, in short, those blockheads hermetic to basic science, maybe comparison with violent hailstorms could help. The most stubborn Texan redneck will have to admit that hail, akin to the ice cubes in his jumbo fridge, are produced by storms generated by hellish warmth, and the hotter the summer, the bigger the hailstones will grow. And au passage he will also admit that to make cold his fridge has to warm the outside. Two lessons for the price of one, hopefully.
Very nicely stated!


Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: January 31, 2019, 08:25:09 PM »

What is the basis for the "highly polluting" statement below?  I thought LNG was one of the cleanest fossil fuels?

"Has Poland given any indication that she'll be giving up increasing coal consumption, even while purchasing high priced, highly polluting LNG from American sources? NSII and South Stream may both be necessary to curb Europe's coal dependency."

My understanding is that:
NG is quite clean.
Fracked NG much less so.
LNG multiplies whatever faults that the seed NG possess.

Various sources have found Fracked NG and LNG from natural sources to be as bad or worse than coal.
(no links at his time)

I don't see a problem with NG peaker plants that only operate for a few hours/day. Others eschew any use of ffs.
LNG from a modern wellhead, shouldn't present too much of a problem.
Fracked anything just seems like asking for problems - IMHO

The problem I see looking forward is that European electrical consumption will increase at least as fast as EV's enter the market. Clean and renewable generation must outpace what many think will be an exponential growth in both EV's and E-Trucking or the grids will degrade with a greater percentage of "dirty" electricity being distributed.

Burning wood and/or garbage produces renewable energy, but not necessarily clean energy. I know that in some jurisdictions in the American SouthWest burning wood in your fireplace is illegal.

For some reason Poland takes great pride in her coal industry and prefers Fracked LNG from across the Atlantic to piped NG from Russia. This ideological stance will increase GHG levels unnecessarily, especially as EV's are introduced

Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: January 31, 2019, 07:49:27 PM »
More than half of the USA's coal mines have shut down since 2008:;topic=347.1200;last_msg=187415

U.S. coal production has declined by more than a third since peaking in 2008, while the number of active coal mines plunged to 671 mines in 2017 from 1,435 mines in 2008, the EIA has estimated.

The U.S. electric power sector accounted for 93 percent of total U.S. coal consumption between 2007 and 2018. But since 2007, coal consumption in the electricity generation sector has declined, due to retirements of coal-fired power plants and lower utilization rates of coal power plants which have been facing growing competition from natural gas-fired power generation and from renewable energy sources. Coal’s market share has shrunk at the expense of natural gas and renewables, the EIA said.

In its latest inventory of electric generators, the EIA said earlier this month that wind, natural gas, and solar capacity will lead the new electricity capacity in the United States in 2019, while coal-fired generation will account for more than half of scheduled capacity retirements.

In 2019, the U.S. electric power sector is expected to add 23.7 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity, while 8.3 GW capacity is planned to be retired. Among the capacity scheduled for retirement, coal will lead with 53 percent of all planned retirements, followed by natural gas with 27 percent, and nuclear with 18 percent.
Locally Ontario went from 25% coal generation in 2003 to 0% in 2014.

It can be done.

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: January 31, 2019, 07:16:52 PM »
In recent years, at least here in Canada the price of lobster has crashed. I assume this is due to large commercial hauls.

Is this a localized phenomena?

Are warm waters helping the lobsters by killing their predators, or do lobsters simply prefer the new warmer temperatures?

Probably totally unrelated, but the last time I was at Bras d'Ore in Nova Scotia it looked like jelly fish soup. Is this also the result of warmer water? Is there any way to end this kind of infestation?

Bras d'Ore is one of the most beautiful places on earth, but I wouldn't stick a toe in the water while wearing a wet suit.


Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: January 31, 2019, 06:53:18 PM »
Terry, I understand that for you Musk is the eternal villain, but why is this SpaceX slander relevant for this thread?
Elon isn't an "eternal villain", rather a Villian de Jour. This role has been played variously by Ronald Reagan, The Bushes father and son, Tricky Dick and LBJ. Their various minions played supporting roles. Locally Stephen Harper and all politicians of the Ford family are reviled.

On business side villainy I began with MC Nottingham who testified against me when he was Governor Reagan's head of the California State Contractors Board. I won the cases, but 56 felony counts is nothing to sneeze at. Presenting Mr. Nottinghams invoices for selling the same product that I was being charged with selling, just after he'd testified that anyone selling enzyme drain cleaners was a crook did not hurt my case.

A local property developer who's son is now a congress critter soon surpassed M.C. on my villain de jour list, then a jumble of others leading to Kenny Boy Lay, he lent "Shrub" Bush his private Jet for campaign purposes, ruined lots of compressors that I was responsible for with his "brown outs", and incidentally cost many their life savings.
Did I manage to skip over Sheldon Adelson who broke every sub in S. Nevada by the simple expedient of not paying his bills when he built the Venetian Casino. - caution slight hyperbole.

Bill Gates swiped a friend's code well before windows had been dreamed of, Steve Jobs has plenty to answer for WRT RIM (Blackberry), and now it's Elon's turn in the barrel.

Even Eternal Villains become ethereal as the next one takes his place.

When I linked to an article on Spacex in Wired Magazine. I was unaware of their Luddite leanings, and Slanderous prose or I'd never have brought it up. ::)

Mr. Musk's various enterprises have become so conjoined that to my mind that separating them surgically would prove fatal (though certainly not in the next quarter). 8)

Did Tesla buy Solar City because of the paper they held in Spacex? or was it that Spacex was holding Solar City's paper? Were Spacex personnel working on the Boring Tunnel being built in their parking lot?
I'm quite sure that Tesla is responsible for Solar City's commitment to hire a certain number of people to man Gigafactory II in Buffalo, and I know that Tesla is on the hook for the Solar City's debts.

Musk admits that they "ran out of time" when the Boring Tunnel was revealed in December.
Spacex lays off a percentage of their workforce and announces that they are behind schedule in early January.
One week later Tesla lays off a substantial percentage of their workforce, and announces they won't meet previously announced benchmarks.

Are the above isolated co-instances, or are they somehow related through the man you've designated as my "Eternal Villain"?

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: January 31, 2019, 04:38:14 PM »
“It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future."

Those who disparage Musk for his timeliness should be even more upset with the reliability of doomsayers who have been promising Tesla will go bankrupt “next quarter” for over 10 years now. ;D
Hadn't heard that one yet, but I've no doubt someone somewhere has written of the possibility of an early demise for Tesla. At least the "doomsayers" aren't courting investors, or taking deposits. :)

The rest / Re: US intervention in foreign lands
« on: January 31, 2019, 04:26:15 PM »
Just how do foreigners rallying around an unelected (unelectable)? usurper further the cause of democracy?

I happened to be in Havana when Chavez and Castro announced their Doctors for Oil program. Those Venezuelans that flew to Miami for their check-ups were aghast at the give away The 90+% who had never before received quality any healthcare probably still cast their vote for The Revolution.


Here in SW Ontario it feels as cold as anything I remember from my youth.

That said, this is only the 3'd time the river has frozen over since I returned in 2004. The annual break up of ice on the river here had been celebrated since the early 1800's - before any bridges crossed the Grand.

Local merchants rigged a stopwatch to a trigger embedded in the ice, and everyone sent their guess as to the exact second of the breakup through the newspaper. The prizes were highly sought after, and there was intense rivalry, particularly among those suffering from excessive testosterone secretions.

I was away for just over 40 years. When I returned the newspaper was long gone, and only a few of the most sedentary grey-beards showed a glimmer of recollection when reminded of those contests.

The point is that while today's weather may well set an all time record cold, the multi-year annual freeze, as recorded by river ice, indicates water temperatures warmer than had been the norm for at least 200 years.

Increasingly warm winters punctuated by extreme cold snaps.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: January 31, 2019, 08:15:45 AM »
Why would you believe him now when he promises "close to 10,000/wk total production" by the end of 2019?

You don't believe he is trying to make 10,000/wk? Everything seems to indicate he is hell bent on making the Black Model 3 a reality. I rather Tesla delivers 10,000 electric cars a week a year late than never.   
I don't doubt his intention, rather his capacity to deliver.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: January 31, 2019, 07:54:36 AM »

The CSA believed Musk when he contracted to put their satellites in orbit, them couldn't deliver.

What are you talking about? The delay of the RCM mission?  The satellite will get there when it can be done safely. That's how space faring works.
The time for a continuous record has past. We can no longer compare the old data side by side with the new. That is not how spacefaring works when reliable launching facilities are contracted. The Radarsat Constellation, if it is ever launched, will now require expensive and time consuming calibration.

Musk's Spacex Dragon capsule's been polluting the ISS with her outgassing, degrading very expensive instrumentation, but what can be expected when you hire Elon on the cheap.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 31, 2019, 07:23:52 AM »


Does the fact that electrical lines are typically run above ground, as opposed to the best practice of buried utilities indicate a sufficiency of funding?
Do you believe that coal generating facilities would be in operation if utilities could afford to replace them with something better?

PG&E may be the most obviously insolvent utility in the US today, but it's certainly not the only one feeling the pinch.

Welcome to the forum!

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: January 31, 2019, 02:45:54 AM »
The market was not impressed. The stock was sharply down.

"What people should absolutely have zero concern about, and I mean zero, is that Tesla will achieve a 10,000 unit production week by the end of next year,"
[/size]E. Musk - 2017

[/size]Musk told investors that they could bank on seeing 10,000 Model 3s per week by the end of 2018.

Why would you believe him now when he promises "close to 10,000/wk total production" by the end of 2019? Isn't this an admission that his previous promise was off by more than a year - that rather than having produced the 10,000 model 3s as promised, he's now, with an additional factory coming on line, projecting that he may be producing close to 10,000 cars total per week, one year later than his earlier promise?    The CSA believed Musk when he contracted to put their satellites in orbit, them couldn't deliver. Most of those that believed what Musk said tonight will only lose their money. Hopefully those navigating the Arctic without the satellites in position won't lose their lives.   Terry

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 31, 2019, 01:51:09 AM »
PG&E's financial problems are primarily based on a court ruling that they are responsible for all the damage of a wildfire started by their powerlines even if the equipment was properly maintained. They will have to bury all of their powerlines to prevent this problem. That is a ridiculous court decision and the reason they have cited for their intent to file for bankruptcy.

It may be ridiculous, but they're still $60B behind the 8 ball. Who would you put on the hook for the bill?
If I park a truck full of dynamite in front of your house, should you pay for rebuilding your house if my truck explodes? Whether or not I violated any laws?

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 30, 2019, 09:16:46 PM »
Hey Terry,

I've recently seen a German docu on that topic. The German Institute for Economic Research (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) estimates that with 50mio EVs in Germany there is a need for ~20% more power.

Sadly i can't find the original BDI paper.
I did a search on the institute
( )

Couldn't find your paper but found a paper on EVs to 2030
( )

and a look at 2050 but using 25 million EVs (including freight transport?)
Lots of graphics on this one. e.g. impact on system if people recharge at peak demand hours (early evening) in simmer and winter.

Estimates that 1 million EVs = 0.5% additional electricity demand. So 50 million EVs = 25%.

Certainly could slow down getting rid of coal.

That's some wonderful researching guys!

The figures and charts above don't see the exponential shift to EVs that some here are projecting, nor do they address the inevitable introduction of Battery powered heavy trucking.

PG&E's financial problems indicate that electricity is being retailed for far less than the costs of generating, transporting, apportioning and billing. In addition, at present there are no provisions presently for upkeep, improvement and maintenance of the highway/roadway systems already in place.

Without massive funding increases, many of the electric providers are unable to maintain their present infrastructure, let alone build out a system capable of handling the additional load that EV's will impose.

PG&E is apparently behind by ~$60B. Should taxpayers pick up the bill? Should a City dweller who always takes the BART subsidize his Two Tesla neighbor's Watt Guzzlers, or should the bill fall on rate payers alone. Should a subsistence farmer's electrical bill increase so that the Supercharger down the highway can receive adequate wattage? Should schools pay much more so that Little Johnny doesn't swelter without an AC in the classroom?

EV's are a disruptive technology - and the disruption spreads far from it's immediate roots in the transportation sector.

It's not an intractable problem. Subsidize non-polluting mass transit systems.

Interesting that the CIA issues warnings of the menace of "drugs and transnational organized crime ".
Will this be followed by Adelson issuing a warning about the influence of unlimited political contributions, then Peabody Coal lecturing us on the dangers of GHG?


Has everyone forgotten the long lasting impact that Jimmy Carter had WRT Climate Change?
Reagan could tear Jimmy's solar system off the White House roof, but he couldn't pluck the insulation from the attics of millions of home owners.

I feared an overtly Christian president at the time, and his foreign policy was negatively influenced by Brzezinski, but he was the best environmental president of my lifetime.

The rest / Re: US intervention in foreign lands
« on: January 30, 2019, 05:07:27 AM »
How the sausage is made: Blumenthal and Cohen at mintpress on the mechanics of regime change


What an uninspiring ass. ::)

Stringing steel wires across highways to decapitate unsuspecting motorcyclists is a form of non-violent protest that certainly deserves to be rewarded by the North American Democracies and England?

The Right Wing Koch Suckers, not content with crippling Venezuela's economy, anoint their blood stained puppet as the President, even though he's unknown to most Venezuelans, and is feared and reviled most that do recognize his name (unlike Secretary of State Pompano, who didn't even bother to learn the name of his chosen thug.)


Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: January 29, 2019, 11:45:28 PM »
Upstairs is an unheated space of around 600-700 square feet.

But let's return to gardening.

Sorry - but wouldn't even a small, low wattage fan to disturb stratification be helpful?

A stove hood and bathroom fan vented outside should help with the humidity, and also allow warmer temperatures in summer with less discomfort, and less AC. ;)

And now a return to gardening.


Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: January 29, 2019, 07:01:10 AM »


Thanks for the corrections - still not sure how I went from Feb 01 to March 01 though? :-[

Bond holders have no reason to accept a stock swap unless the stock is trading for a higher price than the bond's cash value. Elon's preferences be damned.

Your take on share prices, bulls, bears and shorts is spot on. If everyone agreed on the value, there would be no market.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 29, 2019, 01:49:53 AM »

Did the EIA have predictions for the increased load that EVs will place on the system over the next years? Will solar + wind be able to keep pace with the expected sales of EVs for personal transportation?
When/if E-Semi Trucks enter the market will this require additional coal generation, or will extending the lifespan of those now in operation be sufficient to meet the expected demand?


Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: January 29, 2019, 01:30:11 AM »

Remember when creditor Moody’s downgraded Tesla just days before an earnings report disproving their theory was published? Well, guess what — history is repeating itself. This time, the RBC downgraded Tesla shortly before an earnings report instead of holding their horses a few more days to see whether their theories pan out. (We know, that’s how analysts roll.)

The media, meanwhile, might again choose to hold positive Tesla news hostage while amplifying anything negative they can get their hands on. If this happens in the coming week, don’t be surprised. ...

Tesla Q4 and 2018 Financial Results: Wednesday, January 30.
All those who promised to stop posting about Tesla financial demise/bankwuptcy if Q4 was profitable, now’s your last chance!

So... Are we now to believe that RBC as well as Moody's and the MSM are conspiring to bring down the Munificent Musk?
The Nerve of those Nefarious Ne'er do wells! Nattering Nabobs of Negativity Slothfully Slinging Slimy Slander at Elon's Elegant Electrical Automotive Automaton!

Has anyone promised so much as a brief respite from posting if Elon doesn't reach yet another of his self imposed goals? His promise was that each quarter going forward would be profitable. Wasn't this promise made at about the same time as he assured his workers that "never again" would they see mass layoffs, given months before the most recent dismissals, or was the promise of making each quarter profitable given back when he assured all that 10,000 Model 3s would be rolling off the assembly lines even though his dream of an "Alien Dreadnought" had turned into a dystopian, expensive nightmare.

Cleantechnia suddenly takes note of the value that $450M would have had going forward, after years of ignoring the $920M bond issue that must now be paid this Friday. IIRC the conversion was contingent on the stock maintaining a price of ~$360 for 20 days prior to March 01, so neither bears, bulls or those evil short sellers can alter the picture. Tesla pays $920M on the 1st, or they default - and default isn't really an option.

Tesla has also promised New York State that they'll spend $500M on the Gigafactory II project this year, but I don't recall when this obligation comes due, and as the spokesman noted. the OSHA fines related to the Model 3 tent structure "amount to less than the cost of a single Model 3". Is "Cavalier, but caring" the message we're supposed to take away from this?


Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: January 28, 2019, 04:29:23 AM »
Germany's ditching of coal will be dependent on the completion of Nord Stream II, at present this is very much anathema to America's expressed wishes. Hopefully Germany will consider her own needs, and the needs of the Paris Accord signatories to be of greater import than the demands of America (and NATO)?

Has Poland given any indication that she'll be giving up increasing coal consumption, even while purchasing high priced, highly polluting LNG from American sources? NSII and South Stream may both be necessary to curb Europe's coal dependency.

Substituting NG for coal is a positive. Substituting coal for fracked LNG from across the world might prove to be a negative WRT greenhouse gases. Increasing coal and/or fracked LNG won't help Europe meet their GHG commitments.

This feels more like a "for fun" thread, to me. One where we can confuse weather with climate. Folly, ultimately, but fun.

Warmest winter I've yet experienced here in the BC Rockies, with the least amount of snow, as well. This meshes well with my personal local area desertification hypothesis. For whatever that's worth.  8)

Are you near Cache Creek by any chance? That local was very reminiscent of low desert regions of Southern California to my eye.
I've seen kangaroo rats just southwest of Swift Current Saskatchewan, so that region must have been very arid in the not too distant past.
Perhaps a desert stretched north from Death Valley in the rain shadow of the Rocky Mountains?

Winters would have been devoid of snow, just to stay OT. ;)


The rest / Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« on: January 27, 2019, 10:32:09 PM »
I re-watched Dr. Strangelove last week. That's what this Integrity Initiative stuff looks like to me. A bunch of parasitic idiots/madmen, thirsty for war. They do everything they accuse Russia of, and worse. These people, everyone involved with the 'Integrity' Initiative, are the lowest of the lowest.
They've read Orwell as an operations manual, rather than as cautionary works of fiction.

The Atlantic Council posing as "The Legion of Truth", should have had them rolling in the aisles. Now that it's a fait accompli, reacting to their ongoing gaffes by highlighting the source of their funding would cause them to hide their heads in shame - were they capable of feeling shame.

Reopen the asylums, we've a fresh batch of boobies ready for their hatch.

The rest / Re: US intervention in foreign lands
« on: January 26, 2019, 05:54:55 AM »
In the name of democracy shouldn't the US Congress demand another election to decide who is the elected President of Venezuela?

Of course they'll need to wait until the shutdown is over before their in chamber votes can be properly tabulated. 8)

The rest / Re: Economic Inequality
« on: January 26, 2019, 05:12:18 AM »
Thanks for the Chomsky link!

"It takes a very effective educational system to prevent people from seeing (it)."

At some point will it be recognized that rather than educating, the education system, to say nothing of the MSM, is at it's heart a system designed to obfuscate the machinations of the .1% as they crush not only the revolution, but the will to even contemplate rebelling against their increasing control.

With the recent uniting of Corporate Government Propaganda, Mass Surveillance & Data Collection, and Individualized Virtual Reality fed through such as Cambridge Analytica, our chance of independent thought, action or response have been diminished and now approach the vanishing point.

Democrats demand more war. Journalists want Assange silenced and call for his imprisonment. The victims of WWII's Waffen-SS praise Stepan Bandera and tear down statues honoring their rescuers.
Black becomes the new White. The Left moves so rapidly to the Right that the Center implodes without a so much as a whimper.

Is the coming bottleneck our only shot at recovery? Must the whole house collapse before sanity dares to come out of the closet?

Noam Chomsky is 90 years old.



Warm Arctic, Cold Continents? Did our Polar Vortex break up again?

The WACC weather is hitting me hard here in Southwestern Ontario. Possibly the coldest snap since I came back home in 2004.

The river is frozen and so am I!

Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: January 26, 2019, 03:25:06 AM »
Australia is beginning to sound like our own Mojave Desert!

When asphalt melts onto your boots it's too hot for hiking. The wild burros survive. Cliven's cattle stomp through archaeological sites in the heat, and it takes an hour to fill the pool up every evening.

Desert heat is survivable, but if the humidity increases all bets are off.

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: January 26, 2019, 02:32:31 AM »
That calls for a huge leap in avian cognition.

Do you think it more likely that fledglings raised in close proximity to insect repellent filters are more likely to survive, that these survivors recognize that cigarette filters smell like their own childhood bower, then build their avian nurseries to please their olfactory sense of how a proper nest should smell.

Social Darwinism writ with a stinking quill.

Dickheads Dumping Ashtrays to Save our Songbirds.
And you would have swept it all away.

For Shame. ;D

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: January 26, 2019, 01:39:54 AM »

1. They are cash flow positive
2. Their R&D budget is rolled up with SG&A. They will keep growing because growth is baked into the Tesla budget.
3. Also local capital like Giga 3 is doing the heavy lifting.

I'm not trying to be argumentative, but why would the location of the capital have any bearing at all on Tesla's debt?

Has anyone been following the ongoing saga of Gigafactory II in Buffalo?

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: January 25, 2019, 08:16:36 PM »
Lets ban cigarette filters too:

Cigarette butts are the most common form of anthropogenic (man-made) litter in the world, as approximately 5.6 trillion cigarettes are smoked every year worldwide.[23] Of those it is estimated that 4.5 trillion cigarette butts become litter every year.[24] The cellulose acetate fibers used as the predominant filter material do not readily biodegrade because of the acetyl groups on the cellulose backbone which in itself can quickly be degraded by various microorganisms employing cellulases.[25] A normal life span of a discarded filter is thought to be up to 15 years.

Especially since they have no positive effect (see link)

Possibly exceeding the life span of their most dedicated users? ::)

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: January 25, 2019, 08:12:32 PM »
I strongly doubt Tesla was recently counting on the bond to be converted to stock. The chance of it staying above $360 was very low. IIRC The company had about $3B in cash at the end of the Q3, and the announced plan was to pay down debt and reduce leverage. So I don't see the bond payment as a meaningful event.
The big question going forward is the level of demand for the Model 3, at least until other models come along.

"Musk said on October 24 that Tesla plans to pay off its debt and not refinance. Earlier this month, the company told holders of $920m of its convertible debt due in March that it would settle the conversion with a 50-50 split between cash and stock."


I agree that Tesla's success in manufacturing and marketing model 3 profitably will determine their future, especially as they're now cutting back on producing the more profitable Model S and Model X vehicles.

As Crandel notes, I have developed a jaundiced eye WRT Elon Musk and his various ventures. I think the pro Elon side is well represented here and don't feel that a more balanced amalgam is necessarily a bad thing. :)


Policy and solutions / Re: Solar Roadways
« on: January 25, 2019, 07:10:33 PM »
”...what Solar Roadways has accomplished over the past, say, 12 years or so. ...

LOL. Edison spent years finding 1,000 ways to not make a light bulb... before finding one that did.

Solar Roadways new Version 4 panels are scheduled to go into production by the end of this month.  Let’s see how they fare.
... before finding that Swan's bulbs hadn't been patented in the States yet.  8)

A bit OT, but the myth of Edison's light bulbs, Edison's movies and so many other of Edison's "inventions" needs no further promulgation.
Edison was, in the main, a thief who took credit for the genius of others.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: January 25, 2019, 02:08:16 PM »
Tesla has 5 working days to raise TSLA to ~$360, or it needs to pay out $920M in cash. Recently Musk claimed he'd pay 1/2, with the balance in stock. That no longer appears possible.

This won't break Tesla, but it's close to a $Billion they won't have going forward that they were counting on.
Selling more cars while making less profit wasn't the plan. Cutbacks and layoffs don't bode well for the future.

I could add Spacex and SolarCity's problems, but that would probably drift off topic.

Policy and solutions / Re: The Hyperloop
« on: January 25, 2019, 12:33:59 PM »

- thermal expansion of the tube, a significant issue for any Hyperloop longer than a few miles.
- the Kantrowitz limit which will start to kick in at around 300 mph.
- the power source (and temperature control) of the pod

Did the HyperloopTT presentation address any of these issues ?

Meanwhile, since the current concept of Hyperloop is Maglev in a vacuum tube, it will be more expensive than Maglev without a tube. So why build a Hyperloop if plain Maglev is cheaper ?

This presentation outlines some more issues with Hyperloop :

The concept of maglev trains in an evacuated tunnel isn't new. A working model was demonstrated in 1914 by Boris Weinberg.

I think that thermal issues in the pod put the final spike in anything resembling Musk's vision of the Hyperloop. His own drawings featured a (very) high pressure steam container that was to be swapped out with fresh, cold water at every stop.

Shades of 19th century steam engines stopping every 50 miles to take on water.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: January 25, 2019, 11:59:23 AM »
On the other hand Vicky, the cookie lady, hasn't yet made a pilgrimage to Caracas. Something about paying her own way perhaps? ::)

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 23, 2019, 11:42:15 PM »
Where does it come from?

According to the EIA

In 2017 - the last year available.

Natural gas has edged out coal as the largest source for power. At 32 & 30% respectively they dominate electrical production.
Nuclear counts for 20% of the mix, while all of the renewable sources add up to 17%

When we speak of burning or storing grid energy, this is the mix we are speaking of, 63% fossil fuel and 17% renewable.

In 2017 Hydro, + Wind + Photovoltaic combined, equaled 1/2 of the electricity from coal.


Well, Vietnam war just like apartheid ended, so we should wish the new generation a lot of success.
As a bloodied survivor of the Vietnam protests I do wish them every success. I don't know how they'll achieve it, but our parents didn't believe that we could end the war, or stop South African apartheid.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: January 21, 2019, 11:27:40 AM »
Let's get back on topic, which is 'Tesla glory/failure'.

It seems that it's really important that Tesla starts producing those 'cheap' Model 3s asap, not only because of the company's bottom line, but also because this has always been the promise (first we build luxury cars to get attention and attract investments, then we produce for the masses). I wouldn't mind if they skip the Model Y, new Roadster and pick-up truck, and start making some minimalist cars that are super-efficient and last a long time.
When a 150 pound person needs to haul around a 1200 pound battery when she goes to get her nails done you've ruled out minimalism and efficiency.
3500 pounds of machinery to transport a 150 pound individual might seem ridiculous, but with self driving being as always "just around the corner", we'll soon be able to transport absolutely nothing in our 3,500# behemoth as it careens through the streets to do our bidding.

In what dystopian future will we see pedestrian mothers shielding their young from the robotic monsters let loose on "public"? streets. Some whisking the 1%, hidden from view behind occluded windows, as they're swept from meeting place to eating place then back to the office, then home. Others racing by unoccupied, clogging transportation routes as they rush to do their masters bidding.

Walking on so called "public" roadways has been unsafe and illegal for some time. "Restricted" highways are just that, restricted to those that can afford to purchase, license, fuel and maintain vehicles that most of the worlds inhabitants will never afford.
If it's determined that self driving cars are not compatible with pedestrian traffic, when will the walls go up to protect the vehicles from the populace?

When GM, Firestone and Standard Oil purchased the bus lines and streetcars - then shut them down, it was a frontal attack on the environment. To respond by developing a generation of "Green" private vehicles is a sick joke.
I don't think we've enough time for jokes.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: January 21, 2019, 09:11:48 AM »
Sounds like this may be fake news:

Ruth Bader Ginsburg Is Not Fighting ‘For Her Life’ With Pneumonia, Despite Outlet’s Claim

Who to believe? I've never heard of either source.
It shouldn't take too long to find out, unless they pull a Sharon. :-X


And how should that generation have hope, what should them give optimism? There has to be political pressure. Maybe parents should join their kids-that would be the appropriate criticism.
When we were getting our young heads split open trying to end the Vietnam debacle, one of our cries was "Never Trust Anyone Over 30."

It might still be a worthwhile maxim. :-[

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: January 20, 2019, 08:21:33 PM »
The Canadian Space Agency's launch of it's 3 satellite Radarsat Constellation Mission (RCM) has been delayed indefinitely after the failure of a Space X booster's landing on December 5th.

In 2013 Space X was contracted to launch the satellites in July of 2018, but the explosion of a Falcon 9 in June of 2015 pushed dates forward. Subsequently MacDonald, Dettwiler & Associates (MDA), since absorbed by the American firm Maxar Technologies (Maxar), found that one of the three satellites required repair which also effected the proposed launch date.

Maxar announced on Dec 7th that it's WorldView 4 satellite, one we're probably all well aware of for it's Arctic coverage had failed. The stock plunged and a class action law suit was announced the following day.

2013 - RCM contracts with SpaceX for July 17 2018 launch
2015 - June explosion of Falcon 9 disrupts schedule going forward.
2017 - One satellite requires repair in Germany

06/??/2018 - Musk fires 7 senior managers @ SpaceX
11/??/2018 - Launch date of RCM bumped to 02/17/2019
12/05/2018 - Booster landing fails.
12/07/2016 - WorldView4 fails and Marax stock crashes
12/18/2018 - SpaceX announces $500m fundraiser that produces but $273M
01/08/2019 - Musk tweets about "Hovering Roadster"
01/11/2019 - SpaceX announced the layoff of 10% of their workforce.
01/15/2019 - Launch postponed indefinitely, $1B satellites gather more dust.

Those of us following the flow of Arctic Sea Ice will have one eye closed because SpaceX couldn't meet their commitments. Musk time again? This isn't new and wondrous stuff, we've been putting things in orbit reliably since before Elon was born.

The company that once designed and built the Canadian "Space Arm", may go under because SpaceX couldn't deliver their satellites.

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