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Messages - Vergent

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 12
1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 01, 2019, 05:48:45 PM »
To me it looks like this year's falling even further behind 2012 in terms of finishing with the lowest extent on record. 
Friv,
I thought you were dead. A new record, in my view, depends on the weather. GFS shows a mini cyclone torching the ESS for a few days. That 350k of slush will be gone. A compaction event (like 2007) could put 2019 over the top. I give it 50/50%. The second law is pissed off with all that hot land and warm water surrounding all that ice. Expect to be surprised.
Verg

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 25, 2019, 05:04:09 PM »
Where did you read this?  Is there a website that tracks albedo?
One of our users, Tealight has built a whole slew of marvelous tools to follow Albedo.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1749.0.html

You can track albedo from Topaz4 using Godiva2;

http://thredds.met.no/thredds/godiva2/godiva2.html?server=http://thredds.met.no/thredds/wms/topaz/dataset-topaz4-arc-myoceanv2-be

Last year it was based on imported data. I don't know about this year. Look for the data to jump on Mondays, that is when they import data.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: May 10, 2018, 03:32:44 PM »
10 day forecast. (Max temperature.)

Personally I'd be happier if we kept this thread closer to the observations. I can wait ten days to see what happened, whereas looking forward ten days from now is a total crapshoot (especially with GFS).
Is GFS totally at fault ? I've just scrolled through cci-reanalyzer using the hourly forecast slider and I have seen nothing to match the image posted by Telihod. It all looked very ordinary to me - warmth and cold moving anti-clockwise around and no massive anomalies.

Slightly OT, but the GFS has a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico in about 12 days...Not sure how the verification scores line up in the Arctic versus globally, but that model has issues.

You have to read the caption "10 day max temperature". It can be found in the outlook section

http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/fcst_outlook/

Verg

edit: placement

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: May 10, 2018, 11:58:01 AM »
Long range GFS will keep bouncing around, it keeps showing similar potentialities.



Verg

edit: I think it has something to do with the second law of thermodynamics.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: May 06, 2018, 08:19:29 PM »
GFS is predicting a huge Pacific side snow melt over the next 10 days.





Verg

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: May 06, 2018, 06:13:30 PM »


The high arctic thaw has begun!



The 80N temperature spike is unprecedented...At least since 2000. At this time of year it is usually hugging the mean line.


Verg

7
Arctic sea ice / Melting of Floating Ice Has Raised Sea Level
« on: February 28, 2018, 10:50:34 PM »
The effect is small and limited to 4 cm. I had assumed that it had no effect. Just setting the record straight.

Since we have lost a significant portion of sea ice volume since 2005, this could account for the acceleration in SLR in recent years.

https://nsidc.org/news/newsroom/20050801_floatingice.html

Verg

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: September 27, 2017, 02:28:21 PM »

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 31, 2017, 08:20:34 PM »

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« on: September 21, 2015, 05:54:28 PM »

Anybody knows what happened in Winter 2011-2012 in terms of snow? Are there records of that?


2011-2012:



2012-2013:



2013-2014:



2014-2015:



today with the scale:



http://marine.copernicus.eu/web/69-interactive-catalogue.php?option=com_csw&view=details&product_id=ARCTIC_ANALYSIS_FORECAST_PHYS_002_001_a

click on "view product"

Verg

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: September 12, 2015, 08:55:12 PM »
ITP-91 is now posting data.

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=146976

Verg

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: USCGC Healy 2015
« on: September 10, 2015, 04:47:21 PM »
Quote
The scientists aboard Healy tried to gather ice measurements along the journey but were stymied by finding slush instead of solid ice until they were within 100 miles of the North Pole, they said in a Coast Guard press release.

"It’s hard to believe how slushy the ice has been so close to the pole; this was the first area we were confident enough in the ice conditions to allow on-ice science experiments," they wrote. "Despite being thick, the ice we encountered further south was simply too soft and unstable to safely put individuals on."

http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2015/0909/Ice-breaker-US-Coast-Guard-sends-first-solo-ship-to-North-Pole-video

Verg

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: September 06, 2015, 06:38:54 PM »



"What's in a name? That which we call a rose
By any other name would smell as sweet." Shakespeare

Verg

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 07, 2015, 06:14:00 PM »


It looks similar to a failure they had in Feb, 2009. If so recent data may also be corrupted due to sensor drift.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2009/02/satellite-sensor-errors-cause-data-outage/

Verg


18
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 07, 2015, 04:09:12 PM »
NSIDC daily extent:

2015,    08,  05,      6.486,
2015,    08,  06,      8.164,  +1,678k



Oopse

Verg  :o

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: August 05, 2015, 04:51:34 PM »
Thanks, Verg.

Yes, I've been monitoring the Canadian Ice Charts. And I've been just shaking my head that the forecasts have repeatedly said the Baffin Bay and Davis Strait ice would melt out, and then it doesn't. Originally they indicated that there would be a new forecast on Aug. 4, but today they changed that to Aug. 5. Seems like they might be as puzzled by the situation there as everyone else.

When I compare the daily charts I've collected (as well as the satellite images), it appears that some coastal regions are improving very slightly (i.e., there's a bit less ice or less concentrated ice), but many more are not improving and some are worsening. And, just as bad it seems to me, there appears to be enough movement of the higher-concentration regions of ice to make it inadvisable to count on using those green areas as reliable travel corridors. (But I'm certainly no expert!)

I thought 30% was the cutoff, so I appreciate knowing it's 40%.

Quote
The extent to which an ice cover of varying concentrations can be penetrated by a vessel varies from place to place and with changing weather conditions. With a concentration of 1 to 3 tenths in a given area, an unreinforced vessel can generally navigate safely, but the danger of receiving heavy damage is always present. When the concentration increases to between 3 and 5 tenths, the area becomes only occasionally accessible to an unreinforced vessel, depending upon the wind and current. With concentrations of 5 to 7 tenths, the area becomes accessible only to ice strengthened vessels, which on occasion will require icebreaker assistance. Navigation in areas with concentrations of 7 tenths or more should only be attempted by icebreakers

http://msi.nga.mil/MSISiteContent/StaticFiles/NAV_PUBS/APN/Chapt-34.pdf

So much for memory, we were both way wrong. A reinforced vessel can navigate up to 70% concentrations by Navy standards. There is an ice breaker in the vicinity (the Oden), if you get stuck.

Verg

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: August 05, 2015, 07:28:13 AM »
Thanks, Verg.

Yes, I've been monitoring the Canadian Ice Charts. And I've been just shaking my head that the forecasts have repeatedly said the Baffin Bay and Davis Strait ice would melt out, and then it doesn't. Originally they indicated that there would be a new forecast on Aug. 4, but today they changed that to Aug. 5. Seems like they might be as puzzled by the situation there as everyone else.

When I compare the daily charts I've collected (as well as the satellite images), it appears that some coastal regions are improving very slightly (i.e., there's a bit less ice or less concentrated ice), but many more are not improving and some are worsening. And, just as bad it seems to me, there appears to be enough movement of the higher-concentration regions of ice to make it inadvisable to count on using those green areas as reliable travel corridors. (But I'm certainly no expert!)

I thought 30% was the cutoff, so I appreciate knowing it's 40%.

40% was from memory double checking <15% for un-hardened vessels, <30% for hardened vessels. Over that you need an ice breaker. Sorry for the misrepresentation.

Verg

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: August 05, 2015, 02:22:14 AM »
So, what does everyone think about that stubborn ice hanging on in Davis Strait and Baffin Bay that's still blocking coastal access to much of Baffin Island? And what about the persistent ice along the east coast of Ellesmere Island, as well as the ice in Kane Basin/Nares Strait? It seems my upcoming expedition (Aug. 16 departure) might be canceled and postponed to 2016... 13 of 17 locations we planned to visit on Baffin, Devon, and Ellesmere, as well as the route to Petermann, are still inaccessible (i.e., blocked for an ice-reinforced vessel that is not an ice-breaker). Looking at the various maps, satellite images, and ice charts daily (well, actually I've been staring at them obsessively multiple times a day), it strikes me that most or all of those regions of ice are likely to continue hanging on in the coming weeks, perhaps even through September. In some locations -- along parts of the Baffin Coast in particular -- the ice conditions actually seem to be getting more problematic rather than less. Your thoughts?

Canadian navigational ice charts can be found here;

http://www.ec.gc.ca/glaces-ice/default.asp?lang=En&n=B6C654BB-1#daily_ice



You need 40% 30% and below to navigate with an ice hardened ship. To me, it's not looking good near term. The forecasts have this ice melting out rapidly,....but they have been showing that since mid June. Starting the 13th there will be a series of spring tides. Sometimes that helps with the channel ice.

Their current forecast can be found here:

http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/cgi-bin/getprod.pl?prodid=FECN16CWIS&wrap=1&lang=en


Verg

P.S. They will have a new 30 day forecast tomorrow (the 5th Aug).

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 04, 2015, 08:27:30 PM »
To repeat SeaIceSailor's question from the stupid questions thread, does anybody have an answer?


Is there a reason why there aren't buoys installed at the Eurasian side of the Arctic?

Thanks.



(I would suppose it's a question of budget myself).
I have found that if you want to find Russian resources, it is best to translate the search query:

https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=%D0%A0%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%B8+%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BA%D1%82%D0%B8%D1%87%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%B5+%D0%B1%D1%83%D0%B8+%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%80%D1%82%D1%83

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 31, 2015, 11:35:17 PM »


Santa had a visitor.

Verg  ;)

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 30, 2015, 02:47:12 AM »
Jim,
not happening this year....



Verg

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 28, 2015, 03:53:05 PM »
NSIDC Daily Extent:

2012 was a leap year, now comparing same Julian days.

2012,    07,  14,      7.868..............2015,     07,  15,      8.615,   -131k.....+747k
2012,    07,  15,      7.705,  -163k....2015,     07,  16,      8.403,   -212k
2012,    07,  16,      7.606,   -99k.....2015,     07,  17,      8.271,   -132k
2012,    07,  17,      7.481,  -125k....2015,     07,  18,      8.120,   -151k
2012,    07,  18,      7.420,   -61k.....2015,     07,  19,      7.932,   -188k
2012,    07,  19,      7.350,   -70k.....2015,     07,  20,      7.903,   - 29k
2012,    07,  20,      7.340,   -10k.....2015,     07,  21,      7.807,   - 96k
2012,    07,  21,      7.297,  -113k....2015,     07,  22,      7.658,   -149k.....+361k
2012,    07,  22,      7.184,  -113k....2015,     07,   23,     7.548,   -110k.....+364k
2012,    07,  23,      7.118,   -66k.....2015,     07,  24,      7.434,   -114k.....+316k
2012,    07,  24,      7.035,   -83k.....2015,     07,  25,      7.320,   -114k.....+285k
2012,    07,  25,      6.931,  -104k....2015,     07,  26,      7.335,   + 15.......+404k
2012,    07,  26,      6.809,  -122k....2015,     07,  27,      7.236,    - 99.......+427k
2012,    07,  27,      6.677,  -132k
2012,    07,  28,      6.600,   -77k
2012,    07,  29,      6.478,  -122k
2012,    07,  30,      6.400,   -78k
2012,    07,  31,      6.368,   -32k

Verg

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 27, 2015, 04:10:07 PM »
NSIDC Daily Extent:

2012 was a leap year, now comparing same Julian days.

2012,    07,  14,      7.868..............2015,     07,  15,      8.615,   -131k.....+747k
2012,    07,  15,      7.705,  -163k....2015,     07,  16,      8.403,   -212k
2012,    07,  16,      7.606,   -99k.....2015,     07,  17,      8.271,   -132k
2012,    07,  17,      7.481,  -125k....2015,     07,  18,      8.120,   -151k
2012,    07,  18,      7.420,   -61k.....2015,     07,  19,      7.932,   -188k
2012,    07,  19,      7.350,   -70k.....2015,     07,  20,      7.903,   - 29k
2012,    07,  20,      7.340,   -10k.....2015,     07,  21,      7.807,   - 96k
2012,    07,  21,      7.297,  -113k....2015,     07,  22,      7.658,   -149k.....+361k
2012,    07,  22,      7.184,  -113k....2015,     07,   23,     7.548,   -110k.....+364k
2012,    07,  23,      7.118,   -66k.....2015,     07,  24,      7.434,   -114k.....+316k
2012,    07,  24,      7.035,   -83k.....2015,     07,  25,      7.320,   -114k.....+285k
2012,    07,  25,      6.931,  -104k....2015,     07,  26,      7.335,   + 15.......+404
2012,    07,  26,      6.809,  -122k
2012,    07,  27,      6.677,  -132k
2012,    07,  28,      6.600,   -77k
2012,    07,  29,      6.478,  -122k
2012,    07,  30,      6.400,   -78k
2012,    07,  31,      6.368,   -32k

Verg

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 26, 2015, 03:54:01 PM »
NSIDC Daily Extent:

2012 was a leap year, now comparing same Julian days.

2012,    07,  14,      7.868..............2015,     07,  15,      8.615,   -131k.....+747k
2012,    07,  15,      7.705,  -163k....2015,     07,  16,      8.403,   -212k
2012,    07,  16,      7.606,   -99k.....2015,     07,  17,      8.271,   -132k
2012,    07,  17,      7.481,  -125k....2015,     07,  18,      8.120,   -151k
2012,    07,  18,      7.420,   -61k.....2015,     07,  19,      7.932,   -188k
2012,    07,  19,      7.350,   -70k.....2015,     07,  20,      7.903,   - 29k
2012,    07,  20,      7.340,   -10k.....2015,     07,  21,      7.807,   - 96k
2012,    07,  21,      7.297,  -113k....2015,     07,  22,      7.658,   -149k.....+361k
2012,    07,  22,      7.184,  -113k....2015,     07,   23,     7.548,   -110k.....+364k
2012,    07,  23,      7.118,   -66k.....2015,     07,  24,      7.434,   -114k.....+316k
2012,    07,  24,      7.035,   -83k.....2015,     07,  25,      7.320,   -114k.....+285k
2012,    07,  25,      6.931,  -104k
2012,    07,  26,      6.809,  -122k
2012,    07,  27,      6.677,  -132k
2012,    07,  28,      6.600,   -77k
2012,    07,  29,      6.478,  -122k
2012,    07,  30,      6.400,   -78k
2012,    07,  31,      6.368,   -32k

Verg

29
Consequences / Re: 6 meters of SLR?
« on: July 26, 2015, 02:33:38 PM »
Shared Humanity,  crandles,

You can actually see the process on Google Earth; Galviston before Ike, after and 6 years later:





Verg

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 25, 2015, 03:57:18 PM »
NSIDC Daily Extent:

2012 was a leap year, now comparing same Julian days.

2012,    07,  14,      7.868..............2015,     07,  15,      8.615,   -131k.....+747k
2012,    07,  15,      7.705,  -163k....2015,     07,  16,      8.403,   -212k
2012,    07,  16,      7.606,   -99k.....2015,     07,  17,      8.271,   -132k
2012,    07,  17,      7.481,  -125k....2015,     07,  18,      8.120,   -151k
2012,    07,  18,      7.420,   -61k.....2015,     07,  19,      7.932,   -188k
2012,    07,  19,      7.350,   -70k.....2015,     07,  20,      7.903,   - 29k
2012,    07,  20,      7.340,   -10k.....2015,     07,  21,      7.807,   - 96k
2012,    07,  21,      7.297,  -113k....2015,     07,  22,      7.658,   -149k.....+361k
2012,    07,  22,      7.184,  -113k....2015,     07,   23,     7.548,   -110k.....+364k
2012,    07,  23,      7.118,   -66k.....2015,     07,  24,      7.434,   -114k.....+316k
2012,    07,  24,      7.035,   -83k
2012,    07,  25,      6.931,  -104k
2012,    07,  26,      6.809,  -122k
2012,    07,  27,      6.677,  -132k
2012,    07,  28,      6.600,   -77k
2012,    07,  29,      6.478,  -122k
2012,    07,  30,      6.400,   -78k
2012,    07,  31,      6.368,   -32k

Verg

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 24, 2015, 03:56:28 PM »
NSIDC Daily Extent:

2012 was a leap year, now comparing same Julian days.

2012,    07,  14,      7.868..............2015,     07,  15,      8.615,   -131k.....+747k
2012,    07,  15,      7.705,  -163k....2015,     07,  16,      8.403,   -212k
2012,    07,  16,      7.606,   -99k.....2015,     07,  17,      8.271,   -132k
2012,    07,  17,      7.481,  -125k....2015,     07,  18,      8.120,   -151k
2012,    07,  18,      7.420,   -61k.....2015,     07,  19,      7.932,   -188k
2012,    07,  19,      7.350,   -70k.....2015,     07,  20,      7.903,   - 29k
2012,    07,  20,      7.340,   -10k.....2015,     07,  21,      7.807,   - 96k
2012,    07,  21,      7.297,  -113k....2015,     07,  22,      7.658,   -149k.....+361k
2012,    07,  22,      7.184,  -113k....2015,    07,   23,      7.548,   -110k.....+364k
2012,    07,  23,      7.118,   -66k
2012,    07,  24,      7.035,   -83k
2012,    07,  25,      6.931,  -104k
2012,    07,  26,      6.809,  -122k
2012,    07,  27,      6.677,  -132k
2012,    07,  28,      6.600,   -77k
2012,    07,  29,      6.478,  -122k
2012,    07,  30,      6.400,   -78k
2012,    07,  31,      6.368,   -32k

Verg

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 23, 2015, 08:14:33 PM »
Quick it's not too late, we still have time!  ;D

Quick, activate SkyNet! What could go wrong? ;)


33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 23, 2015, 08:11:22 PM »
I miss interesting forecasts from Frivolous21.  Any idea where he is hiding.

Friv also posts over at AmericanWX as The_Global_Warmer. His most recent post:

Quote
Verbatim the 12 euro destroys the Western CAB throughout most of the run.

It's better than the gfs which leaves the ridge more ESS centered.

But that Southerly flow from the Warm continental air mass is a Western CAB killer.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/156-arctic-sea-ice-extent/?p=3632841

Verg


34
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 23, 2015, 04:34:58 PM »
NSIDC Daily Extent:

2012 was a leap year, now comparing same Julian days.

2012,    07,  14,      7.868..............2015,     07,  15,      8.615,   -131k.....+747k
2012,    07,  15,      7.705,  -163k....2015,     07,  16,      8.403,   -212k
2012,    07,  16,      7.606,   -99k.....2015,     07,  17,      8.271,   -132k
2012,    07,  17,      7.481,  -125k....2015,     07,  18,      8.120,   -151k
2012,    07,  18,      7.420,   -61k.....2015,     07,  19,      7.932,   -188k
2012,    07,  19,      7.350,   -70k.....2015,     07,  20,      7.903,   - 29k
2012,    07,  20,      7.340,   -10k.....2015,     07,  21,      7.807,   - 96k
2012,    07,  21,      7.297,  -113k....2015,     07,  22,      7.658,   -149k.....+361
2012,    07,  22,      7.184,  -113k....
2012,    07,  23,      7.118,   -66k
2012,    07,  24,      7.035,   -83k
2012,    07,  25,      6.931,  -104k
2012,    07,  26,      6.809,  -122k
2012,    07,  27,      6.677,  -132k
2012,    07,  28,      6.600,   -77k
2012,    07,  29,      6.478,  -122k
2012,    07,  30,      6.400,   -78k
2012,    07,  31,      6.368,   -32k

Verg

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 22, 2015, 04:35:49 PM »

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 22, 2015, 04:06:16 PM »
NSIDC Daily Extent:



2012,    07,  14,      7.868..............2015,    07,  14,      8.746, ...................+878k   
2012,    07,  15,      7.705,  -163k....2015,    07,  15,      8.615,   -131k
2012,    07,  16,      7.606,   -99k.....2015,    07,  16,      8.403,   -212k
2012,    07,  17,      7.481,  -125k....2015,    07,  17,      8.271,   -132k
2012,    07,  18,      7.420,   -61k.....2015,    07,  18,      8.120,   -151k
2012,    07,  19,      7.350,   -70k.....2015,    07,  19,      7.932,   -188k..........+582k
2012,    07,  20,      7.340,   -10k.....2015,    07,  20,      7.903,   - 29k...........+563k
2012,    07,  21,      7.297,  -113k....2015,    07,  21,      7.807,   - 96k...........+580k
2012,    07,  22,      7.184,  -113k
2012,    07,  23,      7.118,   -66k
2012,    07,  24,      7.035,   -83k
2012,    07,  25,      6.931,  -104k
2012,    07,  26,      6.809,  -122k
2012,    07,  27,      6.677,  -132k
2012,    07,  28,      6.600,   -77k
2012,    07,  29,      6.478,  -122k
2012,    07,  30,      6.400,   -78k
2012,    07,  31,      6.368,   -32k

Verg

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 21, 2015, 04:02:27 PM »

NSIDC Daily Extent:

2015,    07,  14,      8.746,
2015,    07,  15,      8.615,   -131k   
2015,    07,  16,      8.403,   -212k
2015,    07,  17,      8.271,   -132k
2015,    07,  18,      8.120,   -151k
2015,    07,  19,      7.932,   -188k
2015,    07,  20,      7.903,   - 29k

6 day loss: 843K, averaging -140/day.

For reference 2012:

2012,    07,  14,      7.868..............2015,    07,  14,      8.746, ...................+878k   
2012,    07,  15,      7.705,  -163k....2015,    07,  15,      8.615,   -131k
2012,    07,  16,      7.606,   -99k.....2015,    07,  16,      8.403,   -212k
2012,    07,  17,      7.481,  -125k....2015,    07,  17,      8.271,   -132k
2012,    07,  18,      7.420,   -61k.....2015,    07,  18,      8.120,   -151k
2012,    07,  19,      7.350,   -70k.....2015,    07,  19,      7.932,   -188k..........+582k
2012,    07,  20,      7.340,   -10k.....2015,    07,  20,      7.903,   - 29k...........+563k
2012,    07,  21,      7.297,  -113k
2012,    07,  22,      7.184,  -113k
2012,    07,  23,      7.118,   -66k
2012,    07,  24,      7.035,   -83k
2012,    07,  25,      6.931,  -104k
2012,    07,  26,      6.809,  -122k
2012,    07,  27,      6.677,  -132k
2012,    07,  28,      6.600,   -77k
2012,    07,  29,      6.478,  -122k
2012,    07,  30,      6.400,   -78k
2012,    07,  31,      6.368,   -32k

Verg


38
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 20, 2015, 05:15:52 PM »
NSIDC Daily Extent:

2015,    07,  14,      8.746,
2015,    07,  15,      8.615,   -131k   
2015,    07,  16,      8.403,   -212k
2015,    07,  17,      8.271,   -132k
2015,    07,  18,      8.120,   -151k
2015,    07,  19,      7.932,   -188k

5 day loss: 814K, averaging -162/day. Climatology ('79 to 2010) for 7/14-7/19 is -461k

For reference 2012:

2012,    07,  14,      7.868..............2015,    07,  14,      8.746, ...................+878k   
2012,    07,  15,      7.705,  -163k....2015,    07,  15,      8.615,   -131k
2012,    07,  16,      7.606,   -99k.....2015,    07,  16,      8.403,   -212k
2012,    07,  17,      7.481,  -125k....2015,    07,  17,      8.271,   -132k
2012,    07,  18,      7.420,   -61k.....2015,    07,  18,      8.120,   -151k
2012,    07,  19,      7.350,   -70k.....2015,    07,  19,      7.932,   -188k..........+582
2012,    07,  20,      7.340,   -10k
2012,    07,  21,      7.297,  -113k
2012,    07,  22,      7.184,  -113k
2012,    07,  23,      7.118,   -66k
2012,    07,  24,      7.035,   -83k
2012,    07,  25,      6.931,  -104k
2012,    07,  26,      6.809,  -122k
2012,    07,  27,      6.677,  -132k
2012,    07,  28,      6.600,   -77k
2012,    07,  29,      6.478,  -122k
2012,    07,  30,      6.400,   -78k
2012,    07,  31,      6.368,   -32k

The 2012 lead is evaporating, er, melting. 2015 caught up by 296k in 5 days.

Verg

Edit: Tomorrow,....I see some low hanging fruit.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 20, 2015, 04:28:44 PM »
Wipneus,

Quote
Note: snow cover data not updating ... we hope to have a new data source by July, 2015.

CT is going through a planned data source change. It may effect NSIDC as well. That may be the reason for the remarkable stability. You can see that the change effects concentration as well as snow by looking at the animation:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/CT/animate.arctic.color.0.html

Verg

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 19, 2015, 05:55:57 PM »
NSIDC Daily Extent:

2015,    07,  14,      8.746,     
2015,    07,  15,      8.615,   -131k   
2015,    07,  16,      8.403,   -212k
2015,    07,  17,      8.271,   -132k
2015,    07,  18,      8.120,   -151k

4 day loss 626k

Verg

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 18, 2015, 04:19:42 PM »
NSIDC Daily Extent:

2015,    07,  14,      8.746,     
2015,    07,  15,      8.615,   -131k   
2015,    07,  16,      8.403,   -212k
2015,    07,  17,      8.271,   -132k

Three day loss: -475k
Three day average: -158k

Well, pigs aren't flying, but NSIDC is migrating south.

Verg

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: July 14, 2015, 04:45:29 PM »
Stupid questions:

3) Would there be any interest in, or practical use use for, forum members in obtaining 3-5 meter resolution images of the Arctic Sea Ice?

Well of course, lots of interest and I'm sure many practical uses. But how does one obtain such images?

Google Earth's android app is now giving 10 cm resolution images..........Further, they are rendering them into psudo-3D!!?? Here are 2 views of the same A380 at LAX.



3D image splicing issues are apparent, But wow, how do they do it? I can pan around and see all 4 sides of my house. Unfortunately, they do not do ice. Maybe, if we asked very nicely...................

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 14, 2015, 01:41:02 PM »


Pina colada, anyone?

44
Consequences / Re: 6 meters of SLR?
« on: July 13, 2015, 05:18:27 PM »
AbruptSLR,

Kudos, this article validates everything you have been communicating on the Antarctica thread. Further, your work gives us a possible time scale.

Verg

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 13, 2015, 06:41:38 AM »


can you actually listen? Maybe you should.

46
Consequences / Re: 6 meters of SLR?
« on: July 13, 2015, 01:09:38 AM »
Quote
A new review analyzing three decades of research on the historic effects of melting polar ice sheets found that global sea levels have risen at least six meters, or about 20 feet, above present levels on multiple occasions over the past three million years.

What is most concerning, scientists say, is that amount of melting was caused by an increase of only 1-2 degrees (Celsius) in global mean temperatures.

Results of the study are being published this week in the journal Science.



Neven,

The article is about an article in the Journal Science that documents the 3 million year relationship between global temperatures, CO2, and sea level. It is a major departure from past estimates. While, it mentions Antarctica and Greenland, it is not about them.

Verg

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 08, 2015, 02:34:00 PM »
Smoke is interesting, so is the coming warmth...But, I am concerned with the moisture that is already there...

http://i.imgur.com/ST5Czrc.png

There is a tongue of moisture intruding from the Chukchi (up to 30 kg/m^2) that disappears in the coming days...

http://i.imgur.com/jCSCPxt.png

There may be some rain or snow, but mostly there is surface condensation that melts 7 kg of ice for each kg of condensation.

Verg

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 06, 2015, 05:53:03 AM »
IJIS:

9,284,536 km2(July 4, 2015)down 56,723 km2 from previous.

Far from the madding crowd, this number keeps happily going toward the 2000's average.

Are you sure?

Verg

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