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Messages - HeisenIceBerg

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Jason Box just posted a new blog entry today about snowfall in Greenland during this past winter and the implications it has for the upcoming melt season: Greenland “snow drought” makes big 2013 melt more likely.

Snowfall over most of the GIS was well below average, especially over parts of western Greenland, where snowfall was only 50% of the average, and a section of the northeastern coast, where snowfall was only 30% or less of the average.

Edit: Taking a second look at the below graph, I'm actually not completely sure how to interpret the numbers.  I'm not sure if the numbers in brown indicate percent below the average or percent of the average.

Albedo over the GIS (land excluded) from mid-march to anout the last week of April was well below any values observed since 2000.

If you haven't visited Jason Box's blog before, you should read some of his other posts.  His posts are usually very up to date with what is happening, and he will often post information and analysis that would otherwise take several months to be published in a paper.  Recently he has only been posting once ever month or two, but that isn't unexpected during the winter; his blog was very active during June-September last year, and will probably be very active during this melt season.

Request made by: Artful Dodger
Location and time of request: Main thread Reply #15 on April 23, 2013 @ 07:19:15 PM
Publication requested: "A case study of a modelled episode of low Arctic sea ice."; Ann B. Keen, Helene T. Hewitt, and Jeff K. Ridley; Climate Dynamics (2013): 1-16
Link to publication

Request made by: ccgwebmaster
Location and time of request: Personal Message on April 16, 2013 at 08:54:50 AM
Publication requested: "How unrealistic optimism is maintained in the face of reality"; Sharot, T., Korn, C.W., Dolan, R.J.; 2011
Link to publication Link removed on April 23

Request made by: Artful Dodger
Location and time of request: Main thread Reply #10 on April 15, 2013, 10:04:25 PM
Publication requested: "Dual-polarized ratio algorithm for retrieving Arctic sea ice concentration from passive microwave brightness temperature"; Zhang, S., Zhao, J., Frey, K., Su, J.; 2013
Link to publication Link removed on April 23

Request made by: Daniel Bailey
Location and time of request: Main thread on April 15, 2013, 03:23:46 AM
Publication requested: Goethe’s Morphology of Stones: Between Natural History and Historical Geology
World Views and Scientific Discipline Formation
Boston Studies in the Philosophy of Science Volume 134, 1991, pp 329-338
Link to publication Link removed on April 23

I scanned the pages you requested, but I didn't have a program that could put all the images into one PDF, so there are 6 separate .jpg images.  The edges of pages 330 and 331 are a bit blurry, but still legible.  You can zoom in on each image to a readable resolution.  You should be able to download the whole folder in a .zip file.

Daniel Bailey,

First of all, I must admit that I feel honoured and even a bit giddy that I can help contribute to the excellent work done at Skeptical Science.  I'm a big fan; even as I write this, I have about 7 SkS articles open that I'm going to read tonight.

Unfortunately, your request will take a little bit more time than most.  One of the few things I don't get free access to is full books from journals (I should probably add that to the main post).  However, my university library happens to have a copy, so I'll go get that tomorrow morning and scan the pages you need.  I'll get back to you within a day.


Request made by: Steve Bloom
Location and time of request: ASIB: PIOMAS April 2013 - extra update on April 14, 2013 at 08:56

Publication requested #1: "On the interpretation of inter-model spread in CMIP5 climate sensitivity estimates", Vial et al. 2013
Link to publication #1 Link removed on April 18

Publication requested #2: "Sudden stratospheric warmings and tropospheric blockings in a multi-century simulation of the IPSL-CM5A coupled climate model", Vial et al. 2013
Link to publication #2 Link removed on April 18

Publication requested #3: "Assessment of atmosphere-ocean general circulation model simulations of winter northern hemisphere atmospheric blocking"; Jessica Vial, Tim J. Osborn; 2012
Link to publication #3 Link removed on April 18

Request made by: R. Gates
Location and time of request: Neven's blog: PIOMAS April 2013 - extra update on April 14, 2013 at 06:13
Publication requested: "Dynamics of the Mackenzie River plume on the inner Beaufort shelf during an open water period in summer", Ryan P. Mulligan et al. 2010
Link to publication Link removed on April 18

Request made by: ccgwebmaster
Location and time of request: Arctic Sea Ice : Forum » Cryosphere » Greenland and Arctic Circle » Vedel Sø/ Dronning Louise Land / North East Greenland, Reply #27 on April 12, 2013, 10:00:28 PM
Publication requested: "A detection of Milankovitch frequencies in global volcanic activity", Kutterolf et al. 2012
Link to publication Linked removed on April 18

No problem Neven, I'm glad to contribute what I can to the community.

Request made by: Chris Reynolds
Location and time of request: Neven's blog: PIOMAS April 2013 - extra update on April 13, 2013 at 21:21
Publication requested: Thorndike 1975 "The thickness distribution of sea ice"
Link to publication Link removed on April 18.

To make things easy for me, I'd appreciate if requests contain a link to the publication's location (most online journals provide the abstract at least), so you should try to find it first.  If for some reason you cannot find it, then please provide as much information as you can, such as the title of the article, at least one author's name, the date of publication, and the journal it was published in.

I will use the following format for all of my posts, for the sake of record keeping.
Request made by: (name of requester)
Location and time of request: (where the request was made (here, ASIF, Neven's blog) and when (date and time))
Publication requested: (details of the requested article)
Link to publication (the text will contain the link, the URL will not be displayed)

I've noticed both on the ASIF and over at Neven's blog that pay walls on journal publications can often be problematic, as the analysis capabilities of our community here are limited when we cannot access the scientific information we need.  The point of this thread is to create a central location where people can request for someone with access to pay-walled publications (probably me mostly) to get a copy to share, as well a place where the links to said shared publications can be posted so it is easy to keep track of.

As a current university student, I have the fortune of having free access to pretty much every scientific journal; I have yet to come across a journal which I do not have access to.  Since I will continue to be a university student for the foreseeable future (another 2 years for my undergraduate, plus a planned masters and doctorate) I should be able to continue doing this for a long time.

If other people wish to take up this task as well, then I would be glad for the assistance.

A few things to note first:

1) If the request is posted elsewhere on the ASIF or on Neven's blog, then I cannot guarantee that I will see the request.  If I happen to see elsewhere that someone wants access to a publication, then I will get it, but I may not see it.  If you really want access to a publication, either post the request here or send me a personal message. 

2) I will be posting all links to publications in this thread, so that it is easy for me to keep track of.  If I was responding to a request made elsewhere on the ASIF or Neven's blog, then I will link to the post in this thread which has the links.

3) In order to avoid potential copyright problems, which could become a bigger issue as the ASIF and Neven's blog start attracting more attention, I will not leave up publications and the links indefinitely.  3 days after posting a link to a copy of a publication, I will remove the link as well as removing the publication from that location.  3 days should still be plenty of time for anyone interested to get the document.

4) After removing a link and publication, I will be open to requests to repost said link and publication, but I will not do so immediately.  There will be a 10 day waiting period after I have removed a link and publication before I will repost it.  Requests can be made before this 10 day period has passed, but I will not post another link until after the 10 days.

If for some reason I decide to stop doing this at some point in the future I will make this abundantly clear.  I can't foresee any reason I would stop for quite a while, but hopefully someone else can take up the task if and when I eventually do stop.

Now that all of that is out of the way, let the requests the begin and the information flow!  :)

Edit: I've realized that I should mention one other thing.  The free access I get is mainly for scientific papers.  Unforunately, I don't get free access to full books, as you might find on Springer for example.  My university's library might have a copy, and if so I will scan the pages requested, but I cannot guarantee that I can get a chapter from a book.


I got a copy of the full paper for you.  "A detection of Milankovitch frequencies in global volcanic activity", Kutterolf et al.  You can make a direct download from th button on the top bar.

Edit: I've created a new thread for taking requests for access to pay-walled publications and posting links to copies.  I've removed the link from this post; you can now find the link to the paper here.


Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland Melt Impacts 2012
« on: April 04, 2013, 06:52:45 PM »
This video was just posted today on the Climate Crocks blog.  Jason Box briefly talks about what has been causing the increasingly large amount of melt of the GIS in summer, and how it relates to arctic summer sea ice loss.

Original source:

There appears to have been a rather large calving event in the past few days.  The piece can first be seen breaking off on Mar 28th; it is roughly triangular with side lengths of approximately 6km each, based on images and the scale from  On Mar 29th and 30th, it can be seen disintegrating, filling much of the bay with the pieces.  Based the way it has disintegrated, I would be surprised if it was just sea ice, but please correct me if it is.

Original images from LANCE-MODIS Terra:

Looks like a pretty long crack has opened up over the past two days just east (above in Worldview) of the islands separating the Laptev and Kara Seas.  No crack visible through the clouds on the 26th, first noticeable on the 27th, and wider on the 28th.

Mar 27:,-53312,1885536,575424&products=baselayers.MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor~overlays.arctic_coastlines&time=2013-03-27T12:00:00&switch=arctic

Mar 28:,-40000,1885536,562112&products=baselayers.MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor~overlays.arctic_coastlines&time=2013-03-28T12:00:00&switch=arctic

Also, correct me if I'm mistaken, but it looks like the ice just west of the islands (below in Worldview) is younger, thinner ice.

One last thing.  Chris, I'm not sure if this is just for me or if others are experiencing this, but I can't access the links that you've posted.  I get the message,

"You need permission to access this item.

You are signed in as [my google account email], but you don't have permission to access this item. You can request access from the owner or choose a different account."

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Sea Ice "Market"
« on: March 28, 2013, 05:46:51 PM »
Definitely interesting, and I would qualify to participate, but I'm not much of a gambler.  I notice that they don't actually give values for the upper and lower threshold.  Do you have to sign up first to see them, or have they not given the thresholds yet?

Also, there's a minor typo:
If the minimum arctic sea ice extent drops below the lower threshold, contract "LOW" pays $1 and contract "HGH" pays $1.

From the below image, it's obvious that it should say "contract "HGH" pays $0".  Otherwise, "HGH" would be a great deal! :D

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will we see open ocean at the north pole?
« on: March 28, 2013, 04:38:22 AM »
Hi all.  I just joined the forum today, so, yay first post! :)

In the two biggest melt years of 2007 and 2012, the sea ice edge was closest to the pole from the direstion of the Laptev and Kara seas.  The ice has also been thinning mostly from those directions, with thicker ice in most other directions.  Even now, the ice around the north pole from the direction of the Laptev and Kara seas looks to be younger thinner ice, due to the thicker pack being moved by the gyre toward the Beaufort sea.  So my bet would be that it will melt out from the direction of the Laptev and Kara seas.

In terms of when, I'm far less sure.  With the thinner ice near the pole right now, we could see open ocean there this summer with the right weather conditions, but we could just as easily not see that if the weather isn't right for it.  I would say probably no later than summer 2015 with the way ice has been thinning from that direction.

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