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Messages - Tor Bejnar

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Policy and solutions / Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« on: November 15, 2019, 08:59:51 PM »
It'll be nice to program the car I'm in to go the speed limit, and then leave the driving to AI.
Then I only have to deal with my exploitation of resources funded by past exploitation accumulations.

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: November 15, 2019, 08:41:15 PM »
Okay, 2-days ago morning wasn't a record where I live, but it was the coldest November 13 in (my) memory. (I think I remember last year...)  And besides, the heat was barely on today and I had to put on a sweater (jersey to English speakers) at work.  You expect me to focus on how hot it was, like, a month ago? Or even, you know, trust the people who carefully take measurements every day, around the world?

I say, BAU until they wrest the controls from my sweaty hands. [/sarc]

Then I shed a tear for what we are doing (to my adult kids and the next generations, to the trees I've planted, to the rocks I've studied).  We do that: cry over spilt milk, when we know we could have prevented the spill in the first place.  (And then distract ourselves with all the times we did prevent a spot of milk from spilling.)

Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: November 15, 2019, 07:54:53 PM »
This is a big improvement over the happy face absurdities from the PR dept back on shore. I am not familiar with the term Presseisrücken, perhaps what we are calling ice dynamics induced by pressure from ice movement but maybe it is a technical term for pressure ridges.
An internet search turns up (new to me website)  Looks like "Presseisrücken" means "pressure ridges".
Screen print:

Policy and solutions / Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« on: November 15, 2019, 07:09:32 PM »
Crime, violence, abuse, we are all pretty much aligned.  ...
Well, on "their" violence you and I may be pretty much aligned, but on "my" abuse, I'm much more lenient, and on your crime, you are much more lenient.

How many people decry lawlessness in others while intentionally driving over the speed limit?  (Yes, some people are a little less hypocritical than others.)  Isn't "homo sapiens" just Latin for "hypocritical saps"?

The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: November 13, 2019, 03:43:19 PM »
Japan's Hayabusa-2 spacecraft has departed from a faraway asteroid and begun its yearlong journey back to Earth.
The Hayabusa-2 is expected to return to Earth in December 2020, dropping a capsule containing the rock samples in the South Australian desert.
While asteroids are some of the oldest objects in space, Ryugu belongs to a particularly primitive type of space rock, and may contain clues about the conditions and chemistry of the early days of the Solar System - some 4.5 billion years ago.
[1st link to BBC article; 2nd link to Wikipedia article]

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 12, 2019, 05:43:57 AM »
When will the Americans figure this out?  (And we have a couple factories already...)

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: November 11, 2019, 08:03:45 PM »
Popcorn led me to Switched On Bach

and then

I remember playing my new (just released) Switched On Bach record at high volume on my decent stereo in my university dorm room.  The outside wall was mostly a steel sheet and acted like a speaker (noticeable on the outside).  It was quite glorious (if you liked this sort of music...)

I also once read to all, via an amplified mike, the last chapter of Through the Looking Glass, word for word backwards [Chapter XII. Which Dreamed it? ] (from the end - starting with "END THE: Dream a but. It is, what, Life?"). [I must have been popular ...  ::)] [I didn't need drugs...]

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: November 11, 2019, 07:11:27 PM »
Thanks, Glen!  Great information.

I wonder if they considered ice floe dynamics when floes get thin - breaking apart (and flash melting) when there is a big storm (GAC - Great Arctic Cyclone).

I wonder if they considered Chris' "Slow Transition".

Walking the walk / Re: Zero-Carbon Farming and Living via the Acorn Path
« on: November 11, 2019, 06:27:41 PM »
LOL - you're on Ignore solely for your Tesla comments.  Elsewhere I usually read you comments.
Friend  and  foe?  :o

Is it possible that, with the collapse of the tropospheric polar cell, that the stratosphere could actually reach the surface in places?

Per Wikipedia, the stratosphere drops as low as 20K feet around the poles and northern latitudes.
Mt. Everest (aka Sagarmatha or Chomolungma in more local languages - I saw it in person in 1980, standing on a bump on the side of a nearby mountain [at ~5,600 m] overlooking 'base camp') is 8.8 km tall, so the troposphere would have to thin more than half there.  Denali (in Alaska) is almost 6.2 km tall, so the troposphere would have to thin more than 2/3rds there.

But what might happen with climate chaos, I haven't a clue.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: November 10, 2019, 06:36:53 AM »
Dire Straits - Telegraph Road (FULL)(1982)


The rest / Re: Good music
« on: November 09, 2019, 07:50:06 PM »
Song of Peace can be found in many different church hymnals.  Here it is sung by Mary Travers (of Peter, Paul and Mary)

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: November 09, 2019, 07:24:40 PM »
I just listened to nanning's "Martine Bijl - Er Zijn Daar Geen Meikevers Meer (nl) (1974)" (November 4), found the lyrics and ran Google Translate on them, and read the translation as I listened a 2nd and 3rd time.  It's a pretty song to listen to, and very sad.  Thanks.

"There are no May bugs there anymore"

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: November 09, 2019, 06:23:18 PM »
If this is Western Australia, it's the first time I have seen wildfires in the Indian ocean?
Well, North could have been down with the wind blowing smoke westward over the Indian Ocean (clearly the land is to the left of the white like line - I like to think it is 'surf' and not a mapmaker's addition* :P).  But it looks like 'prevailing winds', and they would be from the west, not to the west.

And isn't that Fraser Island near the image's top?  Who moved it from Queensland to Western Australia?  :o  Does blumenkraft have powers we don't know about?  :D

* - I remember from some years ago an article somewhere that said the image shown was "exactly what folks on the International Space Station would see."  The image was of the eastern part of North America, with white state boundaries included.  I've seen big white plastic sheeting "X"s on the ground for 'ground proofing' air photography (I presume).  It must have been some project outlining all the eastern states with the stuff!   ::) :P

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: November 09, 2019, 05:57:48 AM »
What I hear Glen asking for, Neven, is for you to ask for some ASIB posts written by experts in the fields of sea ice dynamics and the like.  For example, Richard Rathbone just referenced "all sorts of stuff that matters a little" associated with sea ice melt.  On the other hand, ASIFers with some pertinent knowledge could offer to write a guest ASIB post.  These people will have a handle on what we can handle.  (Many a scientific paper quickly flies over my head.)

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: November 08, 2019, 03:49:34 PM »
Thanks, Richard: I think you've referenced the 'science' I was looking for.  (I have functionally no thermodynamics formal education.)  Can you say more about the melting process?  About how and why the temperature gradient changes in ice as it melts? 

As I wrote these questions, I realized that for freezing sea ice, all the heat exchange is from the water, through the ice and into the air.  During the melting season, the heat exchange is from both the 'air' and from the water below.  In a colloquial sense, the 'cold' enters the ice only from above and leaves the ice in both directions.

Am I seeing something or just wishful thinking? PolarView image from November 6, 2019  (Okay, my lines could be a little bit better drawn, and there are other possible traces ... and there is a possible connection between the two segments ...)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 07, 2019, 03:43:22 PM »
Think the end of the century rises is close. Maybe 50k climbs now. The whipped cream has all been stirred up now and will just slowly spread out in the coffee cup
That's awfully cold coffee!

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: November 07, 2019, 03:36:52 PM »
I concur.  The freeze chart show the influence of thicker ice insulating the freezing water from the cold air.  FDD (freezing degree days) is pretty much the only input.  Melt, on the other hand, is more directly related to the energy received. 

Melting snow atop of ice is almost totally independent of how thick supporting ice is.

In a simplistic model with snow-free ice, the 2nd meter of growth requires many more FDDs than the 1st meter.  Melting the 1st meter of ice will use more energy than the 2nd because the ice will be colder to start with.

Maybe the question is: if two floes, side by side have the same snow cover at the beginning of the melting season and have the same salt content, etc., but one floe is 2 m thick while the other is 1 m thick [e.g., near the end of the winter, the thicker floe was created by a rafting event, and enough time elapsed to even out its temperature gradient], will it take more or less than twice the energy (as delivered by natural forces) to melt the thicker floe?  (This gets rid of the temperature gradient difference between the 2 ice thicknesses at the start of the melt season.)  The melting energy is delivered by solar gain, wind, rain and whatever is happening in the water under the ice.

Science / Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« on: November 07, 2019, 03:05:40 PM »
Over the course of three years, NASA flew a plane carrying gas-imaging equipment above California and made a discovery that surprised even the state’s own environmental agencies: A handful of operations are responsible for the vast majority of methane emissions.
I think this is great news!  It is far easier, politically and physically, to fix a few big problems (of this nature) than it is to fix a very large number of so-so problems.  (Stopping the 10 speeders going 20 units over the posted school zone speed limit is easier than stopping the 10,000 going 5 units over. [pick your units: mph, kmph])

Asynchronous Antarctic and Greenland ice-volume contributions to the last interglacial sea-level highstand

    Eelco J. Rohling, Fiona D. Hibbert, Katharine M. Grant, Eirik V. Galaasen, Nil Irvalı, Helga F. Kleiven, Gianluca Marino, Ulysses Ninnemann, Andrew P. Roberts, Yair Rosenthal, Hartmut Schulz, Felicity H. Williams & Jimin Yu

Nature Communications volume 10, Article number: 5040 (2019)
Finally, we infer intra-LIG sea-level rises with event-mean rates of rise of 2.8, 2.3, and 0.6 m c−1. Such high pre-anthropogenic values lend credibility to similar rates inferred from some ice-modelling approaches51. The apparent reality of such extreme pre-anthropogenic rates increases the likelihood of extreme sea-level rise in future centuries.
This research reveals up to 2.8 meters/century sea level rise (without people mucking things up).

Edit:  LIG = The last interglacial

Past Antarctic ice melt reveals potential for 'extreme sea-level rise'
Sea levels rose as much as three metres per century during the last interglacial period as Antarctic ice sheets melted, a pace that could be exceeded in the future, given the turbo-charged potential of human-led climate change.

A study led by Australian National University researchers, published in Nature Communications, found sea-level increases during the last major melt of about 130,000 years ago were faster than models have factored in, even though the "climate forcing" from greenhouse gases is much stronger today.
I'm not certain I've found the actual paper, but maybe (see next post).

The rest / Re: Brexit...
« on: November 05, 2019, 04:24:57 PM »
I suppose this is the thread where those who celebrate Guy Fawkes Day will congregate.  Is Guy's dream coming true 414 years too late (for him)?

The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: November 05, 2019, 02:38:35 PM »
I remember a children's story about some siblings, one with eyesight so keen, their eyes could see things clearly a few times 'round the world.  Or something like that.

The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: November 05, 2019, 01:21:41 AM »
And I thought the universe was like a Möbius strip, well actually a kleinbottle.  Nevin's response to the question "Is the universe like a Möbius strip?" - (3rd response quoted)
Craig Nevin - Answered Jan 13, 2017

A Mobius strip has one edge. Does the universe have an edge? Probably not. Two Mobius strips of opposite chirality, however, can be combined into an edgeless surfce known as a kleinbottle. A kleinbottle has no inside nor outside. Therefore you can never be outside such an universe. Since the word universe means everything in space without edge, this makes logical sense. A model of the universe that imagines it as a sphere or torus or topological equivalent, raises the issue of there being a place outside of the universe, which quite frankly deflates the everday notion of the word “universe”. My answer is therefore definitely YES.

Antarctica / Re: Thwaites Glacier Discussion
« on: November 02, 2019, 05:13:16 PM »

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 02, 2019, 04:44:57 PM »
Rob Maurer did the math on the Tesla Solarglass roof in a recent podcast:
Rob’s Math:
Using the estimate given on the call that 1,000/week could be happening in several months, then scaling from there....
If we take an average of 750/week, that would be about 36,000 solarglass roofs in 2020. Even a conservative average price of $40,000, that would be $1.5 billion in revenue in 2020. If they succeed in ramping to 1,000 in the next few months, it could easily mean 2 to 3 billion dollars in revenue in 2020.  And that $40k sales price is a conservative estimate; it could be higher.

Longer term, 10,000 roofs/week would be just under a million roofs/year.  ...
Hmmm ... [red glow added]
750/week is an average and 750 x 52 = 39,000.  (This number produces $1.56 billion ~$1.5 b.) Maybe just a typo.

1,000/week ... 1000 x 52 x$40k = $2.08 billion.  (Where does $3 b. in revenue come from? powerwall sales? 'conservative' $40k becomes $60k? ramp to 1,000/wk overshoots to an annual average of 1,500/wk? or, obviously, a combination...)

10,000 roofs/week = 520,000 roofs/year, not "just under a million".  Now, 20,000 roofs/week is just over a million per year.  Another pair of typos?

If these were Rob's maths, why propagate errors?

Policy and solutions / Re: Recycling to Reduce Oil Consumption
« on: November 02, 2019, 03:50:05 PM »
Hemp was made illegal in the US (in 1937) after anti-drug and pro-oil forces combined their efforts.  The oil people (DuPont) saw that Hemp oil would provide a platform for manufacturing competitors.  I recall reading somewhere that making plastics from hemp would be easier than from oil.

Antarctica / Re: Thwaites Glacier Discussion
« on: November 02, 2019, 02:23:06 PM »
Baking's 2nd image (the GIF) shows the latitude or longitude line moving about.  It appears the one iceberg that moves the most in the GIF moves in sync with with red line, suggesting everything else is 'actually moving' and that one berg is (relatively) standing still.  An alternate interpretation would be the red line is approximate (and therefore is not stationary): if so why include it in the first place?  (I know this is not Baking's doing.)

Other that that, I really appreciate Baking's close look at the relative movements of the mostly glued-together icebergs.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: November 01, 2019, 08:28:02 PM »
People will just try to get their jabs in more subtly, like what Tom and Dick Smothers did back in the day (to get past the censors).  But worth it!

Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: October 30, 2019, 03:56:29 AM »
Murray thinks they will restructure (at the expense of workers and retirees says the Union) and be stronger than ever.  (Heard on NPR - National Public Radio - this afternoon)

Antarctica / Re: Antarctic Icebergs
« on: October 29, 2019, 08:00:10 PM »
Is this where I say "Nana-nana-boo-boo"? ::)  I'll admit to having never heard 'the rest of the taunt' that the link provides.  :-[  We only ever said "Nana-nana-boo-boo" to each other in games of chase when an attempt to catch failed.

But the race is on!  Should we check in every few months?  Are there other contestants?

Antarctica / Re: Antarctic Icebergs
« on: October 29, 2019, 03:43:55 PM »
13 m/day for B-22A and 650 m/day for A-68A (e.g., 28 km during recent 43 day period). Sentinel-hup Playground imagery [click to run 2-frame GIF]

Me and my lineations.  Red circles one. (See thread that started with a poll that asked when a crack would occur in this area, including an enlargement of this lineation from October 2.)  Orange circles a lineation 20 km upstream.  (Petermann Glacier is about 15 km wide in the red circle [okay, oval] area.) Screen print from Polar View image from 2019-10-28.

The rest / Re: Pareidolia
« on: October 28, 2019, 08:37:19 PM »
About time to bring out the 2016 Hurricane Matthew image.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: October 28, 2019, 03:52:32 AM »
California wildfires, strong winds prompt Newsom to declare state of emergency; 200,000 ordered to evacuate
(as reported 2 hours ago)
 Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) shut off power to 2.3 million people across 36 counties ...
Kincade Fire, which began Wednesday night and has burned 47 square miles and has destroyed 79 structures, was only 10 percent contained Sunday morning ...
Strong winds hit Sunday as gusts reached 93 mph in the hills north of Healdsburg and topped more than 80 mph in many other areas, according to the National Weather Service.

When I (an American) was a student in metric dominated New Zealand, I remember being asked my weight which I'd learned in kilograms (which is mass, not weight, but I won't quibble - newtons, anybody?), but they wanted to know in stone, because that was the only human weight context they knew.  So I had to learn a new system.  :-\ (I remember seeing a bathroom scale that showed stone in someone's home once.)

Ah, but nothing ("0") disappears!

I don't mind a day being a day, but why not divide it into 10 hours per day and 100 minutes per hour and 100 seconds per minute.  The 'new seconds' aren't that different from the 'old' ones.  Who would notice? "1,001; 1,002; 1,003", only a little faster!
day (in 'old' seconds) = 24 x 60 x 60 = 86,400 'old' seconds
day (in 'new' seconds) = 10 x 100 x 100 = 100,000 'new' seconds

(100,000-86,400)/86,400 yields a spot over 15% decrease in a second's length, so if your pulse was racing, it will really race under the new system! 70 would replace 60 for a normal pulse.

I figured this out in junior high school   :o  but nobody uses it.   :'(

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 27, 2019, 04:50:11 AM »
To see if Nares has closed, you'll need to look at least the DMI Satellite images. (Link is to "Kennedy" section - the middle part of the Strait - see at the the link links to "Kane" and "Lincoln" on the Greenland location map [and the rest of the Greenland coast]).  Looking back and forth between images with two dates (set to the same area - easy to do), you'll see in the lower Kennedy section, there is still ice movement.  In the Lincoln imagery, there isn't much right now.

If Nares freezes up this week for the winter, I think it would be unprecedentedly early in the last couple of decades.  It usually closes in the December to February period (IIRC) (and it didn't close at all in 2006-07 and 2018-19 winters).  This post in the Nares Thread gives some history of Nares' closing dates.

This, for sure, is a carbon sink, but it has changed little over the last 10,000 years, I suspect. It will change positively as the Earth heats up (which, of course, it has done these past 30+ years), then decline when mountain glaciers melt out. 

The 'weathering of minerals' associated with general erosion of mountainous terrains is the one long-term (albeit slow) carbon sink that will cool the Earth down, some day. [SkepticalScience]  The outwash plains carbon sink process is undoubtedly an enhanced aspect of the general principle.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: October 25, 2019, 08:38:05 PM »
There is Community and Shared Solar (a US gov't website), but I understand it is not legal in all US states.  I have no idea about elsewhere.

Unfortunately, community solar is limited in Florida. To have community solar, your utility must agree to voluntarily participate in community solar, or be forced to allow it by state-level legislation.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: October 25, 2019, 07:01:49 PM »
Relax, the mice in the inter-tuby-thing can only run so fast.  :P

Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: October 25, 2019, 05:22:18 PM »
With people tramping 'all over' the designated floe, will it freeze thicker due to there being less snow insulation?  If they sprayed some fresh water on the snow (but not enough to create an ice rink), would that strengthen the floe 'faster'?  Or would this create cracks between ridges (without extra accumulation) and flats (with extra accumulation)?  (Who knew that people will [or will want to] do geoengineering on whatever piece of the Earth they find themselves?)

They are obviously not using solar panels for electricity. Will the ship's diesel cause noticeable particulate contamination?   

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: October 24, 2019, 04:38:20 PM »
... protecting against disasters that may hit a particular area only once in a century.
This comment is based on '20th century thinking' with a steady-state climate.  In many places, '100-year' floods will happen every 1 to 30 years, according to new flood maps
Reza Marsooli et al, Climate change exacerbates hurricane flood hazards along US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in spatially varying patterns, Nature Communications (2019). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-11755-z

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: October 24, 2019, 03:29:13 PM »
Are you suggesting, "Let us pretend that climate change is real."?  "Just as a fanciful notion, let's humorously assume more intense rain events will be in our future.  On this basis, should the levees be stronger and taller or should we not build homes in flood plains any more or were the old levees just not maintained enough and can be repaired to original specifications?" [/sarc]

Glaciers / Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« on: October 24, 2019, 03:12:45 PM »
The Taku Glacier cannot escape the result of three decades of mass losses
The professional opinion is partially based on mass-loss evidence.  Not all arm-less and leg-less knights fight on.

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: October 24, 2019, 03:02:00 PM »
I'm reminded of a Mad Magazine piece where a good Samaritan reports to the phone company a pay phone that is vandalized on the NE corner of 7th Ave.  The receptionist asks where the caller is calling from, and is told, "The phone booth on the SW corner of 7th Ave."  A few minutes later, still in the vicinity, the good Samaritan sees a phone company truck and thinks, "Good on them for being prompt!"  The service truck pulls up to the phone booth at the SW corner of 7th Ave. and the driver jumps out with a sledge hammer and whacks the once-working phone to bits.  (from 1955, maybe? - friends of ours in the mid-60's had all the back issues.)

Does this explain "everything"?

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: October 24, 2019, 02:38:59 PM »
South facing part of tower seems like a reasonable place for solar panels though? Grid connection already in place. ...
You "northist", you!  :o ::) :P  There is a story (apocryphal?) that when building the first government buildings in Dunedin, New Zealand, they used designs from the equivalent buildings in Edinburgh, Scotland, keeping the larger south-facing windows facing south.  (Many downtown street names in Dunedin do match those in Edinburgh.)

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