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Messages - AbruptSLR

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1
Is Trump currently having an affair with Nikki Haley?

It looks like Slate has come to the same speculative conclusion about Haley as I have (or else Hope Hicks):

Title: "Michael Wolff Suggests Trump Is Having an Extramarital Affair “Now”"

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/01/author-of-fire-and-fury-michael-wolff-suggests-trump-is-having-an-extramarital-affair-now.html

2
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: Today at 04:10:23 AM »
I wonder what effects the (partial) US government shutdown will have on Mueller's investigations.

Will he have to (officially) do nothing?

Mueller's investigation continues even during government shutdowns.

3

https://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2017-119/esd-2017-119.pdf


This reference quotes inferred ECS, which is about 43% lower that the true ECS.

4
Consequences / Re: 2018 ENSO
« on: Today at 04:00:08 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +2.5:

5
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: January 20, 2018, 04:52:54 PM »
The linked article indicates that the climate response lag time can be as long as 21 years when considering complex ocean thermal inertia influences; which when accounted for can significantly increase the true value of ECS (on the order of 43%) above inferred values of ECS that assume shorter lag times (see the attached image and associated caption):

Title: "Guest post: A ‘new’ measurement of climate sensitivity?"

https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2018/01/17/guest-post-a-new-measurement-of-climate-sensitivity/

Captions: "Figure 3: Model true equilibrium climate sensitivity (True ECS) as a function of that calculated as in Figure 2, using historical-RCP8.5 temperature change with the Forster forcing and a one-box model with a 12-year lag. All of the points are above the 1:1 black dashed line, showing that the one-box model underestimates true ECS in all 18 cases. The red line is a best fit to the models, although the fit is weak."

6
Consequences / Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences
« on: January 20, 2018, 04:50:07 PM »
The linked article indicates that the climate response lag time can be as long as 21 years when considering complex ocean thermal inertia influences; which when accounted for can significantly increase the true value of ECS above inferred values of ECS that assume shorter lag times (see the attached image and associated caption):

Title: "Guest post: A ‘new’ measurement of climate sensitivity?"

https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2018/01/17/guest-post-a-new-measurement-of-climate-sensitivity/

Captions: "Figure 3: Model true equilibrium climate sensitivity (True ECS) as a function of that calculated as in Figure 2, using historical-RCP8.5 temperature change with the Forster forcing and a one-box model with a 12-year lag. All of the points are above the 1:1 black dashed line, showing that the one-box model underestimates true ECS in all 18 cases. The red line is a best fit to the models, although the fit is weak."

7
Consequences / Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences
« on: January 20, 2018, 04:04:37 PM »
I feel that the assumption of a constant ECS would be the worst case scenario.  Most chemical and physical reactions have diminishing returns.  Hence, the overestimating.

I feel that Brown & Caldeira (2017) make a convincing case based on satellite observations of clouds, that since 1994 the average value of ECS has been 3.7C, which is well above the mean value from CMIP5.  Furthermore, based on Friedrich et al (2016), as we approach peak Eemian conditions, ECS may increase towards 4.5C

Edit: I note that per GISS LOTI base-lined to pre-industrial, at the end of 2017 we are already at 1.153C, and thus we are rapidly approaching peak Eemian global temperatures.

8
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: January 20, 2018, 03:56:11 PM »
Is Trump currently having an affair with Nikki Haley?

Title: "President Trump Is Having an Affair ‘Right Now,’ Michael Wolff Tells Bill Maher"

https://www.thedailybeast.com/president-trump-is-having-an-affair-right-now-michael-wolff-tells-bill-maher

Extract: "The only reason Wolff didn’t put it in ‘Fire and Fury’ is that he “didn’t have the blue dress.”"

Here is one telling paragraph from page 343 of the book: “By October, however, many of the president’s staff took particular notice of one of the few remaining Trump opportunists: Nikki Haley, the UN ambassador. Haley – ‘as ambitious as Lucifer,’ in the characterization of one member of the senior staff – had concluded that Trump’s tenure would last, at best, a single term, and that she, with the requisite submission, could be his heir apparent.”

9
The rest / Re: Systemic Isolation
« on: January 20, 2018, 02:21:53 PM »
Not to be overly simplistic, but frame theory is increasingly used for signal processing, and just as frame theory can be used to help explain how images come into focus (see image from the linked pdf), information theory can be used to explain how individual human personalities come into focus and how individual universes come into focus from HIOTTOE's free-will information network:

http://minhdo.ece.illinois.edu/talks/FrameDSP.pdf

10
Consequences / Re: 2018 ENSO
« on: January 20, 2018, 02:59:53 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +2.2:

11
Consequences / Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences
« on: January 20, 2018, 02:58:47 AM »
Other climate scientific research has shown that the CMIP5 models are most likely over-estimating warming.

You are assuming that ECS of the relatively recent past will be the same ECS of the next few decades; which is something that Marvel says is not such a good idea.

12
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: January 20, 2018, 02:06:48 AM »
Mueller is circling ever closer to Trump & his family:

Title: "Jared Kushner’s Firm Tied to “Suspicious Transactions” at German Bank"

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/01/deutsche-bank-reports-suspicious-activity-related-to-jared-kushners-accounts-1/

Extract: "Deutsche Bank notified German regulators, and Robert Mueller will likely be given the reports.

A German business magazine is reporting that Deutsche Bank, the German financial giant which is a major lender to both President Donald Trump and his son-in-law Jared Kushner, identified “suspicious transactions” related to Kushner family accounts, and has reported them to German banking regulators. The bank is reportedly willing to provide the information to special prosecutor Robert Mueller’s team of investigators."

See also:

Title: "Deutsche Bank flags 'suspicious transactions' tied to Kushners: report"

http://thehill.com/homenews/news/369850-deutsche-bank-flags-suspicious-transactions-tied-to-kushners-report


13
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: January 20, 2018, 12:45:20 AM »
This guy on Twitter noted that the Manafort/Gates indictment was labelled 'B', meaning that Mueller has a stilled sealed indictment on related charges labelled 'A'.  As I have read that for such legal matters an indictment labelled 'A' would be tied to someone higher-up the food chain than those named in a 'B' indictment.  As Pence was not related to the charges against Manafort/Gates, that leaves The Donald:

https://twitter.com/kieransuckling/status/925030925716545536


14
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: January 20, 2018, 12:21:05 AM »
Berkeley Earth provides a lot of prospective on global mean surface temperature in the linked article.  The attached image illustrates just how much warmer the past three years have been than early years:

Title: "Global Temperature Report for 2017

http://berkeleyearth.org/global-temperatures-2017/

Extract: "Berkeley Earth, a California-based non-profit research organization, has been preparing independent analyses of global mean temperature changes since 2013. The following is our report on global mean temperature during 2017.

We conclude that 2017 was likely the second warmest year on Earth since 1850. Global mean temperature in 2017 was 0.03 °C (0.05 °F) warmer than 2015, but 0.11 °C (0.20 °F) colder than 2016. As a result, 2016 remains the warmest year in the historical observations."

15
Storm Friederike has been causing havoc and fatalities across Europe:

Storm Friederike has caused at least 800 million euros of insured losses.  We should all remember that Hanson now has grandchildren, so his warning of "Storms of My Grandchildren" means now:

https://uk.reuters.com/article/europe-storm-insurance/update-1-insured-losses-from-storm-friederike-in-germany-seen-up-to-800-mln-euro-idUKL8N1PE3CS

16
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: January 19, 2018, 12:57:12 PM »
Who else has Trump paid-off through the decades:

Title: "Trump Lawyer Used Private Company, Pseudonyms to Pay Porn Star ‘Stormy Daniels’ "

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-lawyer-used-private-company-pseudonyms-to-pay-porn-star-stormy-daniels-1516315731

Extract: "President Donald Trump’s lawyer used a private Delaware company to pay a former adult-film star $130,000 in return for her agreeing to not publicly discuss an alleged sexual encounter with Mr. Trump, according to corporate records and people familiar with the matter."

17
Science / Re: Modelling the Anthropocene
« on: January 19, 2018, 11:56:54 AM »
Here is a link to the 5th article on climate models.  Without considering any ice-climate feedback the CMIP5 models project more rainfall at high latitudes; which should accelerate polar amplification:

Title: "Explainer: What climate models tell us about future rainfall"

https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-what-climate-models-tell-us-about-future-rainfall

Extract: "Changes in average precipitation is much more difficult for climate models to predict than temperature. There are many parts of the world where models disagree whether there will be more or less rain and snow in the future. However, there are some regions, particularly the Mediterranean and southern Africa, where nearly all models suggest rainfall will decrease. Similarly, increases in rainfall are expected in high latitude areas, as well as much of South Asia."

18
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: January 19, 2018, 02:54:36 AM »
ASLR
While it is theoretically possible that the NSA has handed over incontrovertible evidence of conspiracy, you must admit that it is highly unlikely.
If such evidence was at hand, the investigation would for all practical purposes be at an end, not on course for another year of expensive, disruptive investigations.
Mr. Mueller would have no need of the testimony of George, The Professor, Olga, or even the PP Papers offered by Steele. The case, as a Perry Mason type might intone - Case Closed


If you assume that TPTB are lying about what progress Mueller has made opens a Pandora's box of doubt and uncertainty.
Could Muller actually be investigating Hillary while throwing us off the scent by false leaks? - No, not likely.
Could Mueller have had sufficient evidence to convict Trump in the first weeks of the investigation, but he's dragging it out in an effort to get Bannon? - No, simply not credible.


If the NSA had provided Mueller with the evidence he needed, we would, after all of this time, have been aware of it. Trump's actions would have been different, Mueller's actions would have been different, and McCain and Hillary would be shouting it from the rooftops.
We may have little access to what is transpiring, but those with power, connections, and an interest in the case would ferret it out and would act on their knowledge. We, by watching their actions, can assure ourselves that this breakthrough never occured.


Then we must ask why the NSA came up empty handed.


Terry

Terry,

No matter what you, or I, think Mueller is charged with continuing his investigation so long as evidence leads toward wrong-doing within the areas of his investigation such as links to a Russian gangster, such as released in the Simpson testimony to the House intelligence committee.

See the attached image from the following Twitter link:

https://twitter.com/rvawonk/status/954109820906430464

Best,
ASLR

19
Consequences / Re: 2018 ENSO
« on: January 19, 2018, 02:37:57 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +1.4:

20
Consequences / Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences
« on: January 18, 2018, 09:04:53 PM »
As Kate Marvel has stated repeatedly, CMIP5-types of climate models that have been calibrated to the observed record, most likely underestimate ECS, as ECS increases non-linearly with global warming:

Title: "Can Climate Sensitivity be Constrained by Current Observations?"

http://www.gradadmiss.gatech.edu/hg/item/600179

Extract: "In this talk, I'll discuss the reasons the present may be dissimilar to the future in the CMIP5 models.  I'll present work in which we argue that, at least in a perfect model framework, observations are highly likely to underestimate feedbacks at equilibrium.
 
Additionally, the particular manifestation of internal variability and forced response that characterizes recent observations resulted in an even lower estimate.   Moreover, we find that not only do climate models indicate that current estimates of ECS are biased low, but models' sensitivities to observed conditions are not even predictive of their long-term sensitivities. 

Our results suggest a need for caution in any attempt to use current conditions to constrain long-term climate projections."

21
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: January 18, 2018, 08:22:17 PM »

When someone takes the position “Putin is innocent,” it tells you everything you need to know about them, and their views should either be summarily dismissed or not taken seriously.


It appears that some require an exhaustive explanation rather than a curt summary.

There is no credible evidence of collusion, or conspiracy between the Trump campaign and V. Putin at this time. Since considerable resources have been expended in the search for such evidence it becomes increasingly less likely that such evidence will be found.

Terry,

You are only talking about publically available evidence.  No one on this thread has any idea how much evidence of conspiracy that Mueller has now, and/or will have by the time that his investigation is complete (he hasn't even interviewed Bannon yet).

Hopefully, Mueller is given the opportunity to complete his investigation.

Best,
ASLR

Edit: Per the linked CNN report Mueller just filed paperwork to extend the Papadopoulos case by three months.   This investigation will not be completed for another 6 to 12 months (unless Trump fires Mueller, or Trump quits, first).

http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/17/politics/mueller-papadopoulos/index.html

22
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: January 18, 2018, 08:16:13 PM »
Per the following The 12-month running average GISS LOTI, base-lined to pre-industrial (assuming a 0.256C offset), for 2017 was +1.153C

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt


23
Consequences / Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences
« on: January 18, 2018, 03:39:06 PM »
We are going to be OK !! (Maybe?)

Climate sensitivity study suggests narrower range of potential outcomes
[/b]

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/jan/18/worst-case-global-warming-scenarios-not-credible-says-study

A revised calculation of how greenhouse gases drive up the planet’s temperature reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half, researchers said in the report, published in the journal Nature.

“Our study all but rules out very low and very high climate sensitivities,” said lead author Peter Cox, a professor at the University of Exeter.

But then, right at the end -

One wild card not taken into consideration by the new model is the possibility of rapid shifts in climate brought on by the planet itself. “There is indeed evidence that the climate system can undergo abrupt changes or ‘tipping points’,” Cox said.

The collapse of the gulf stream, the thawing of carbon-rich permafrost, or the melting of ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica – any of these could quickly change the equation, and not in the Earth’s favour.

Wild card? - it is global warming that is causing the changes mentioned.

To me, the linked reference is a classic example of the wishful thinking (by relying on 16 overly simple climate models) of consensus science.  This is just more of the same thinking that has got the world in the high risk situation that it currently is in:

Cox et al (2018), "Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability", Nature 553, 319-322, doi:10:1038/Nature25450.

http://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450

See also:

Title: "Global Warming Predictions May Now Be a Lot Less Uncertain"

https://www.wired.com/story/the-dizzying-science-of-climate-change-gets-a-bit-clearer/

Extract: "So, the numbers. What the researchers landed on was an ECS range of 2.2 to 3.4°C, compared to the commonly accepted range of 1.5 and 4.5°C.

But hold up, says Swiss Federal Institute of Technology climate scientist Reto Knutti, who wasn’t involved in the research. “What's the chance of something fundamentally being wrong in our models?” he asks. “Is that really less than 1 percent? I would argue there's more than a one in a hundred chance that something has been forgotten in all of the models, just because our understanding is incomplete.”

24
Science / Re: Modelling the Anthropocene
« on: January 18, 2018, 02:30:07 PM »
Here is the fourth article in the series of five article on climate models:

Title: "Guest post: Why clouds hold the key to better climate models"

https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-clouds-hold-key-better-climate-models

Extract: "And there are the things we could still do better:

•   Many of the ways cloud at low altitudes form, evolve and dissolve are not clearly understood and models do not appear to represent them very well.
•   The more detailed cloud resolving models need to be run over larger space and longer time domains to fully understand the benefits they bring
•   Ice clouds have been less well studied and considered so far
•   We need to maximise the information we can get from current and future satellite observations."

25
Consequences / Re: 2018 ENSO
« on: January 18, 2018, 02:30:43 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +0.5:

26
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: January 18, 2018, 01:28:13 AM »
Per the linked article: "Bannon admitted that he'd had conversations with Reince Priebus, Sean Spicer and legal spokesman Mark Corallo about Don Junior's infamous meeting with the Russians in Trump Tower in June 2016."

Title: "Inside the room: What Steve Bannon told Congress yesterday"

https://www.axios.com/steve-bannon-congress-testimony-inside-room-e30bd797-3720-44f0-bf32-5760cb6882e9.html

Extract: "Steve Bannon made one conspicuous slip up in his closed-door hearing on Tuesday with the House Intelligence Committee, according to four sources with direct knowledge of the confidential proceedings. Bannon admitted that he'd had conversations with Reince Priebus, Sean Spicer and legal spokesman Mark Corallo about Don Junior's infamous meeting with the Russians in Trump Tower in June 2016.

Why it matters: The meeting — and the subsequent drafting of a misleading statement on Air Force One — has become one of the most important focal points of the Russia investigations, both on Capitol Hill and within Robert Mueller's team, because it provides the closest thing that exists to evidence that the Trump campaign was willing to entertain collusion with Russians."
Miss - Mile
There isn't much evidence at all then, is there.
Terry


The WH's invocation of Executive Privilege may stop Bannon from giving secrets to Congress, but it will not stop Bannon from spilling his guts to Mueller:

Title: "Steve Bannon has reached an agreement with Special Counsel Robert Mueller to come in for an interview: Sources"

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/steve-bannon-reached-agreement-special-counsel-robert-mueller/story?id=52418777

Extract: "Former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon has reached an agreement with Special Counsel Robert Mueller to come in for an interview with the special counsel’s team office after he was subpoenaed by Mueller to appear before a grand jury, according to sources familiar with the matter.

The interview has not yet been scheduled, according to one source."

27
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: January 17, 2018, 11:08:38 PM »
Per the linked article: "Bannon admitted that he'd had conversations with Reince Priebus, Sean Spicer and legal spokesman Mark Corallo about Don Junior's infamous meeting with the Russians in Trump Tower in June 2016."

Title: "Inside the room: What Steve Bannon told Congress yesterday"

https://www.axios.com/steve-bannon-congress-testimony-inside-room-e30bd797-3720-44f0-bf32-5760cb6882e9.html

Extract: "Steve Bannon made one conspicuous slip up in his closed-door hearing on Tuesday with the House Intelligence Committee, according to four sources with direct knowledge of the confidential proceedings. Bannon admitted that he'd had conversations with Reince Priebus, Sean Spicer and legal spokesman Mark Corallo about Don Junior's infamous meeting with the Russians in Trump Tower in June 2016.

Why it matters: The meeting — and the subsequent drafting of a misleading statement on Air Force One — has become one of the most important focal points of the Russia investigations, both on Capitol Hill and within Robert Mueller's team, because it provides the closest thing that exists to evidence that the Trump campaign was willing to entertain collusion with Russians."

28
The path for future Democratic Party victory leads through poor rural areas and associated tailored PACs

Title: "This could be the future of the Democratic Party"

https://news.vice.com/en_us/article/vbyxjx/this-could-be-the-future-of-the-democratic-party

Extract: "A lot of Democrats don't like to talk to the kinds of rural, white, poor voters who used to vote Democrat but in 2016 voted for President Trump in huge numbers. Those voters don't want to help themselves, those Democrats say, so why bother?

Krystal Ball, a former MSNBC host, has decided to bother. She started a PAC specifically designed to help Democrats win in places where Democrats haven't won in a long time. It's not always an easy task."

29
Consequences / Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences
« on: January 17, 2018, 05:54:17 PM »
The linked article indicates that new research indicates that the Amazon rainforest like cannot absorb as much CO₂ as previously assumed by climate scientists:

Title: "Ancient human sites may have distorted our understanding of the Amazon’s natural ecology"

https://news.mongabay.com/2018/01/ancient-human-sites-may-have-distorted-our-understanding-of-the-amazons-natural-ecology/

•   Extract: "Scientists have traditionally based their knowledge of the Amazon rainforest on surveys from fewer than 1,000 plots of land, which they had assumed were representative of the rest of the forest.
•   Research now shows that many of these sites were occupied and modified by ancient peoples, and the trees are still regrowing from those disturbances.
•   These recovering trees absorb carbon at a faster rate than mature trees, so estimates of how well the rainforest can absorb carbon dioxide may be too high."

30
Science / Re: Modelling the Anthropocene
« on: January 17, 2018, 04:13:14 PM »
The linked article on how to improve climate models is worth reading, but one still needs to read between the lines in order to really appreciate how far current climate models are erring on the side of least drama:

Title: "In-depth: Scientists discuss how to improve climate models"

https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-scientists-discuss-how-to-improve-climate-models

Extract: "Prof Stefan Rahmstorf
Head of Earth systems analysis
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

I think a key challenge is non-linear effects, or tipping points."

31
Consequences / Re: 2018 ENSO
« on: January 17, 2018, 02:29:17 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -0.3:

32
Science / Re: Modelling the Anthropocene
« on: January 16, 2018, 09:48:50 PM »
Here is a link to a report on an Earth modeling framework:

Donges, J. F., Heitzig, J., Barfuss, W., Kassel, J. A., Kittel, T., Kolb, J. J., Kolster, T., Müller-Hansen, F., Otto, I. M., Wiedermann, M., Zimmerer, K. B., and Lucht, W.: Earth system modelling with complex dynamic human societies: the copan:CORE World-Earth modeling framework, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-126, in review, 2018.

https://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2017-126/

Abstract. Possible future trajectories of the Earth system in the Anthropocene are determined by the increasing entanglement of processes operating in the physical, chemical and biological systems of the planet, as well as in human societies, their cultures and economies. Here, we introduce the copan:CORE open source software library that provides a framework for developing, composing and running World-Earth models, i.e., models of social-ecological co-evolution up to planetary scales. It is an object-oriented software package written in Python designed for different user roles. It allows model end users to run parallel simulations with already available and tested models. Furthermore, model composers are enabled to easily implement new models by plugging together a broad range of model components, such as opinion formation on social networks, generic carbon cycle dynamics, or simple vegetation growth. For the sake of a modular structure, each provided component specifies a meaningful yet minimal collection of closely related processes. These processes can be formulated in terms of various process types, such as ordinary differential equations, explicit or implicit functions, as well as steps or events of deterministic or stochastic fashion. In addition to the already included variety of different components in copan:CORE, model developers can extend the framework with additional components that are based on elementary entity types, i.e., grid cells, individuals and social systems, or the fundamental process taxa environment, social metabolism, and culture. To showcase possible usage we present an exemplary World-Earth model that combines a variety of model components and interactions thereof. As the framework allows a simple activation and deactivation of certain components and related processes, users can test for their specific effects on modeling results and evaluate model robustness in a controlled way. Hence, copan:CORE allows developing process-based models of global change and sustainable development in planetary social-ecological systems and thus fosters a better understanding of crucial mechanisms governing the co-evolutionary dynamics between societies and the natural environment. Due to its modular structure, the framework enhances the development and application of stylized models in Earth system science but also climatology, economics, ecology, or sociology, and allows combining them for interdisciplinary studies at the interface between different areas of expertise.

33
Science / Re: Modelling the Anthropocene
« on: January 16, 2018, 08:58:45 PM »
Here is a link to the second article in the series on climate modeling:

Title: "Timeline: The history of climate modeling"

https://www.carbonbrief.org/timeline-history-climate-modelling

Extract: "The climate models used by scientists today rely on some of the world’s most advanced supercomputers. It can take dozens of highly skilled people to build and then operate a modern-day climate model."

34
Consequences / Re: 2018 ENSO
« on: January 16, 2018, 02:27:41 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -1.6:

35
Consequences / Re: 2018 ENSO
« on: January 16, 2018, 02:24:25 AM »
The four attached plots were issued today by the BoM showing the week Nino indices thru the week ending Jan 14 2018, showing the Nino 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively.  These plots show that the ENSO remains in a La Nina condition:

36
Consequences / Re: 2018 ENSO
« on: January 16, 2018, 02:21:40 AM »
Per the following NOAA weekly Nino data thru the week centered on Jan 10 2018 and the four attached plots (the first two by NOAA showing the Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution, respectively, & the second two by the BoM showing the Nino 3.4 & the IOD, respectively), the ENSO condition remains in a La Nina state:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 06DEC2017     20.8-1.6     24.1-1.0     25.7-0.8     28.2-0.3
 13DEC2017     21.3-1.3     24.0-1.1     25.8-0.8     28.1-0.3
 20DEC2017     21.6-1.4     23.8-1.4     25.6-1.0     28.1-0.3
 27DEC2017     22.1-1.3     24.4-0.9     26.0-0.6     28.2-0.2
 03JAN2018     22.9-0.8     24.0-1.4     25.8-0.8     28.3-0.1
 10JAN2018     23.3-0.9     24.3-1.3     25.6-0.9     28.2-0.1

37
Science / Re: Modelling the Anthropocene
« on: January 16, 2018, 01:57:54 AM »
I think that the findings of the linked reference '… call for a deep reassessment of the way teleconnections are interpreted, and for a more rigorous way to evaluate causality and dependences between the different components of the climate system', because the current consensus science interpretation of these teleconnections is inadequate:

Vannitsem, S. and Ekelmans, P.: Causal dependences between the coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics over the Tropical Pacific, the North Pacific and the North Atlantic, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-3, in review, 2018.

https://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2018-3/

Abstract. The causal dependences between the dynamics of three different coupled ocean-atmosphere basins, The North Atlantic, the North Pacific and the Tropical Pacific region, NINO3.4, have been explored using data from three reanalyses datasets, namely the ORA-20C, the ORAS4 and the ERA-20C. The approach is based on the Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) developed by Sugihara et al. (2012) that allows for evaluating the dependences between observables beyond the classical teleconnection patterns based on correlations.

The use of CCM on these data mostly reveals that (i) the Tropical Pacific (NINO3.4 region) only influences the dynamics of the North Atlantic region through its annual climatological cycle; (ii) the atmosphere over the North Pacific is dynamically forcing the North Atlantic on a monthly basis; (iii) on longer time scales (interannual), the dynamics of the North Pacific and the North Atlantic are influencing each other through the ocean dynamics, suggesting a connection through the thermohaline circulation.

These findings shed a new light on the coupling between these three different important regions of the globe. In particular they call for a deep reassessment of the way teleconnections are interpreted, and for a more rigorous way to evaluate causality and dependences between the different components of the climate system.

38
The linked reference provides calibration information about the influence vegetation on the stability on the southern edge of Arctic permafrost regions:

Weichao Guo et al (15 April 2018), "Vegetation can strongly regulate permafrost degradation at its southern edge through changing surface freeze-thaw processes", Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Volume 252, Pages 10–17, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.01.010

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192318300108

Abstract: "Permafrost contains twice as much carbon as the atmosphere and the degradation of permafrost due to climatic warming, which could potentially change the global carbon cycle and could also enhance global climate change. It is well studied that permafrost degradation could result in vegetation transition. Aboveground vegetation can act as a buffer for climatic warming, however its role in regulating permafrost degradation remains unclear. In this study we examined how different vegetation types regulated the amplitude and duration of diurnal soil freeze/thaw (FT) cycles and the timing of seasonal soil FT. Soil temperature data (hourly and half hourly) was collected from paired forest-steppe sampling plots spanning a large spatial gradient from northern China to southern Siberia, Russia from 2008 to 2015. FT cycles were found to be larger in amplitude and longer in duration in steppe sites in comparison to forest sites. Soils in the forest sites and steppe sites freeze almost simultaneously, but experience a delay in thawing of approximately 14, 19 and 25 days for deciduous broadleaf forest, evergreen coniferous forest, and deciduous coniferous forest, respectively. Variations in snow accumulation due to differences in vegetation structure as opposed to solar radiation were responsible for the disparity in thaw timing. These findings imply that deciduous conifer forest in east Eurasia could reduce carbon emissions more effectively than evergreen conifer forest in west Eurasia by slowing down warming-induced permafrost degradation during spring thaw."

39
Science / Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: January 16, 2018, 01:32:56 AM »
Csnavywx,

Thanks for the excellent post. 

Models indicate that the frequents of extreme El Nino events should double as we approach 1.5C (GMSTA above pre-industrial).

Best,
ASLR

40
Science / Re: Modelling the Anthropocene
« on: January 16, 2018, 01:27:26 AM »
The linked article is '… the first article of a week-long series focused on climate modelling'.  It provides a very nice summary of the consensus science interpretation of climate models and their limitations.  Understanding such modeling fundamentals is essential before critiquing potential surprises (such as ice-climate feedback) that are not adequately addressed by consensus science:

Title: "Q&A: How do climate models work?"

https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-climate-models-work

Extract: "In the first article of a week-long series focused on climate modelling, Carbon Brief explains in detail how scientists use computers to understand our changing climate…"

41
Science / Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« on: January 15, 2018, 04:11:59 AM »
And yes, any thesis on the sublect will always be simplistic versus the actual complexity of the issue.

rboyd,

Every march to the sea begins with a single step.

Best of luck on your dissertation (or is yours really a thesis?).
ASLR

42
Consequences / Re: 2018 ENSO
« on: January 15, 2018, 04:04:34 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -1.9:

43
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: January 14, 2018, 11:43:36 PM »
The "… hard facts scare the hell out of the Republicans"

Title: "Trump's nightmare"

https://www.axios.com/trumps-nightmare-1515938294-93dd2060-0790-4cbe-95e5-7a4183891d4f.html?source=sidebar

Extract: "Trump's day of reckoning ... The one thing that could dramatically diminish President Trump’s chances of avoiding impeachment and chalking up legislative wins is Democrats winning the House.

•   And, thanks to series of recent developments, Trump knows this no longer just seems plausible, but probable.
•   Hill sources tell us that a House Democratic takeover is now likely.
•   One strategist close to Republican leaders believes that a loss of the House is "baked in," and said top Republicans don't see a way to avoid it.
•   It would take a flip of 24 seats for Dems to take over. The average loss for the president's party in his first midterm is about 32 seats, and we're hearing forecasts of 40+ losses.

You can’t predict outcomes this far out, but these hard facts scare the hell out of Republicans"

44
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: January 14, 2018, 11:34:36 PM »
Anyone have any idea on why suddenly all of these old stories are being dragged out one more time?

Bill Moyer's Trump-Russia Timeline has over 700 entries going back to 1979.

'Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it.'

Title: "Interactive Timeline: Everything We Know about Russia and President Trump"

http://billmoyers.com/story/trump-russia-timeline/

See also:

Title: "Additions to Our Trump-Russia Timelines"

http://billmoyers.com/story/heres-whats-new-trump-russia-timeline/

45
Science / Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« on: January 14, 2018, 11:05:55 PM »
Am doing my PhD thesis on societal resilience in the face of climate change, so couldn't help jump on this simplistic index.

rboyd,

I am glad to read that you are working on a PhD thesis on societal resilience in the face of climate change.  And while I fully concur that the study that I linked to is simplistic, I believe that the interactions of our global socio-economic system and climate change are so complex as to make any/all analyzes, that I have seen, simplistic.  Thus, on this topic, the most important consideration is that each individual lean to take as much responsibility for their own decisions as practicable.

For example, if sea level increases three to sixteen feet this century, the associated freshwater hosing feedback mechanism will effectively invalidate all CMIP5 climate change projections, thus making any analysis that over relies on CMIP5 projections, invalid to one degree or other.  Thus each people needs keep updating any relating information/projections on a regular basis.


46
Consequences / Re: 2018 ENSO
« on: January 14, 2018, 03:30:42 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -2.8:

47
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: January 13, 2018, 07:27:19 PM »
Maybe Trump made his 's**hole' comment because he didn't want the mainstream media to pick-up on the following story that there are multiple sources (besides Christopher Steele's dossier) confirming that the Russians have caught Trump multiple times (including with video and audio tapes) with different Russian women:

Title: "Trump Bragged That He Likes To Go To Russia Because The Women ‘Have No Morals’ (AUDIO)"

http://addictinginfo.org/2017/01/12/trump-bragged-that-he-likes-to-go-to-russia-because-the-women-have-no-morals-audio/

Extract: " Benza: He used to call me when I was a columnist and say, “I was just in Russia, the girls have no morals, you gotta get out there.” [Trump’s] out of his mind.

Trump did not deny making the statement.

On Wednesday, a British news anchor revealed that there are not one but multiple sources confirming that Donald Trump has been caught in “compromising situations” with Russian women. In fact, there may be more information than we know (including video and audio).

“I saw the report, compiled by the former British intelligence officer, back in October,” BBC correspondent Paul Wood said. “He is not, and this is the crucial thing, the only source for this.” Wood said that he reached out to the U.S. intelligence community and “got a message back” from a contact that there is “more than one tape, not just video, but audio as well, on more than one date, in more than one place, in both Moscow and St. Petersburg.”"

48
Science / Re: Modelling the Anthropocene
« on: January 13, 2018, 07:12:08 PM »
Maybe climate models can be upgraded to better account for the impacts of human behavior/values on Earth Systems:

Gerten, D., Schönfeld, M., and Schauberger, B.: On deeper human dimensions in Earth system analysis and modelling, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-125, in review, 2018.

https://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2017-125/

Abstract. While humanity is altering planet Earth at unprecedented magnitude and speed, representation of the cultural driving factors and their dynamics in models of the Earth system is limited. In this review and perspectives paper, we argue that more or less distinct environmental value sets can be assigned to religion – a deeply embedded feature of human cultures, here defined as collectively shared belief in something sacred. This assertion renders religious theories, practices and actors suitable for studying cultural facets of anthropogenic Earth system change, especially regarding deeper, non-materialistic motivations that ask about humans' self-understanding in the Anthropocene epoch. We sketch a modelling landscape and outline some research primers, encompassing the following elements: (i) extensions of existing Earth system models by quantitative relationships between religious practices and biophysical processes, building on databases that allow for (mathematical) formalisation of such knowledge, (ii) design of new model types that specifically represent religious morals, actors and activities as part of coevolutionary human-environment dynamics, and (iii) identification of research questions of humanitarian relevance that are underrepresented in purely economic-technocratic modelling and scenario paradigms. While this analysis is by necessity heuristic and semi-cohesive, we hope that it will act as a stimulus for further, interdisciplinary and systematic research on the immaterial dimension of humanity's imprint on the Earth system, both qualitatively and quantitatively.

49
Antarctica / Re: Surge of WAIS Ice Mass Loss
« on: January 13, 2018, 07:05:37 PM »
The linked reference discusses the link between bathymetry and relatively recent calving of the PIIS:

Arndt, J. E., Larter, R. D., Friedl, P., Gohl, K., and Höppner, K.: Bathymetric Controls on Calving Processes at Pine Island Glacier, The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-262, in review, 2018.

https://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/tc-2017-262/

Abstract. Pine Island Glacier is the largest current Antarctic contributor to sea level rise. Its ice loss has substantially increased over the last 25 years through thinning, acceleration and grounding line retreat. However, the calving line positions of the stabilizing ice shelf did not show any trend within the observational record (last 70 years) until calving in 2015 led to unprecedented retreat and changed alignment of the calving front. Bathymetric surveying revealed a ridge below the former ice shelf and two shallower highs to the north. Satellite imagery shows that ice contact on the ridge likely was lost in 2006 but was followed by intermittent contact resulting in back stress fluctuations on the ice shelf. Continuing ice shelf flow also led to occasional ice shelf contact with the northern bathymetric highs, which initiated rift formation that led to calving. The observations show that bathymetry is an important factor in initiating calving events.

50
Science / Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« on: January 13, 2018, 06:41:40 PM »
Why does Trump believe that many Norwegian would want to immigrate to the USA, when the linked article indicates that consideration of coming climate change impacts would lead one to conclude that many Americans should want to immigrate to Norway:

Title: "The best countries to escape the worst effects of climate change"

http://www.businessinsider.com/best-countries-escape-climate-change-map-2018-1

Extract: " "The bottom line is it's going to be bad everywhere," Bruce Riordan, the director of the Climate Readiness Institute at the University of California, Berkeley, told Business Insider. "It's a matter of who gets organized around this."

That said, some countries will fare far better than others, according to UK-based energy comparison service Eco Experts, which created a color-coded map using data from the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index. The index analyzes 181 countries based on factors like healthcare, food supply, and government stability and ranks them on their ability to cope with the challenges posed by a warming planet. Norway ranked #1, while a handful of other Nordic countries (and New Zealand) followed."

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