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Messages - N00bi-Wan

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Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 27, 2020, 09:58:15 PM »
South of France here (BTW, not a single subzero temperature [°C] thus far in my city this meteorological winter = no winter. Bad!).

Voted for the 1-10 millions range but with in mind the lowest tier, i.e. in the 1-2 millions ballpark. With some major IFs!

Notably IF all of the currently trialed drugs proved to be of no efficacy (e.g. chloroquine, remdesivir, etc.), IF (in the Northern hemisphere) concomitant rising temperatures and UV intensity during spring and summer do not curb infection rate, and IF no efficient vaccine is largely available 1-2 years from now.

Those hopefully wrong IFs apart, I based my vote on a contamination of ~1/4  of the whole population and a ~1% death rate.

This said, as severely affected regions of Northern Italy are 250-400 km from home, I've started to prepare for a quarantine.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 16, 2018, 04:47:05 PM »
Images of a an unusual perfectly formed small-scale cyclone-like system offshore the Siberian side of Bering sea (just east of Korfa Bay), sent by, and relayed from, a friend who's an avid reader of this forum:

Pareidolia warranted! :-)

The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: December 31, 2017, 01:00:18 AM »
yep, a great one, especially in reply to trump's tweet about the cold wave in north america while he wasn't able to look up the other side (siberia) and basically the rest of the northern hemisphere ;)
Thank you. AFAIK, it clearly was crafted as a humorous reply to that exact megalo-Don Twitter jut.   

Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: December 30, 2017, 02:25:13 PM »
Due to the current extension of the polar vortex over North America, light pillars (light reflection by airborne ice crystals) occurred and were photographed over portions of Michigan, here in Charlotte. Source: Vincent Brady

The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: December 30, 2017, 02:04:09 PM »
Don't know if already posted, but that one made me laugh:

Policy and solutions / Re: Aviation
« on: August 16, 2017, 11:19:45 PM »
I believe I've read that when air travel was halted in the US in the days following 9/11, temperatures jumped by something like 2C? If biofuels don't emit as many sun blocking aerosols as our familiar kerosene derivatives, we might expect a temperature bump that would open the door to many feedbacks.
From Kalkstein & Bolling (2004) "Impact of unusually clear weather on United States daily temperature range following 9/11/2001" [PDF]:
Travis et  al. (2002) did not control for the air-mass conditions across the US that may have been responsible for the observed increase in diurnal temperature range immediately following the attacks.
By controlling for the air masses present  across the US, we found that the unusual temperatures on 11 and 12  September were a result of a particularly clear weather pattern, not a lack of jet contrails.
There's apparently still no definitive answer as to whether a cooling effect of air traffic, attributed to the contrail-cirrus merging-expanding phenomenon, is significant, or even measurable.

The contribution of air traffic to anthropogenic radiative forcing, via emissions of several greenhouse gases is, on the other hand, rather unambiguous.   

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 18, 2017, 10:51:55 AM »
JAXA Today, 2017-07-18, for our surprise:

Voted for 3.25 - 3.75, mostly based on Jim Pettit's volume projections.

Volume is unprecedentedly low, but moreover the severe deficit in FDD during the freezing season altered the quality of sea ice. It's more vulnerable than ever.

My intuition thus is that, even more than in 2016, bottom melt will be the real killer this melting season.

A record or near record NSDIC September SIE seems then in order.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: March 07, 2017, 08:30:16 PM »

Not sure what you mean.

NB: It's funded by Europe,  so safe from any Trumpheting.
Yup, it's an ESA program:
Each of the SENTINEL-2 satellites weighs approximately 1.2 tonnes, and is designed to be compatible with small launchers like VEGA and ROCKOT. The satellite lifespan is 7.25 years, which includes a 3 month in-orbit commissioning phase. Batteries and propellants have been provided to accommodate 12 years of operations, including end of life de-orbiting manoeuvres.

Two identical SENTINEL-2 satellites will operate simultaneously, phased at 180° to each other, in a sun-synchronous orbit at a mean altitude of 786 km. The position of each SENTINEL-2 satellite in its orbit will be measured by a dual-frequency Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receiver. Orbital accuracy will be maintained by a dedicated propulsion system.

The SENTINEL-2 satellite system is being developed by an industrial consortium led by Astrium GmbH (Germany). Astrium SAS (France) is responsible for the MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI).

Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: January 25, 2017, 06:56:33 PM »
Interesting, thank you!

Now, from all what I read or heard (on radio) from polar research scientists, my understanding is that the recent downward turning point, bifurcation, or -possibly- first ratchet step in Arctic ocean sea ice extent occurred during the 2007 melt season.

Did you try to separate the trending in your graph in 2007?

Just curious.  :)   

The forum / Thank you Neven
« on: December 01, 2016, 12:03:31 AM »
Thank you Neven!

Thank you to be and to remain yourself online here: You are an outstanding webforum creator and supervisor (and I know what I'm talking about for having being a mod and an admin of an international, multilingual forum [with 20,000+ members today]).

I'm a registered member lurker of this forum since the first of July 2013. And since then, thanks to the wonderful top-notch contributors you've managed to attract, I've learned a lot -and continue to learn, almost everyday- about the Arctic and Antarctic cryozones, and their AGW-driven evolutions. And also a lot about their associated present, and possibly future, consequences.

Let us be well!

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