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Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: Today at 11:50:02 AM »
the pond drainage and colour change remind me of nothing more than our home-made ice lollies in the '60's .. you could suck all the colour and flavour out of them and still be left with porous ice on a stick that looked just like the ice after drainage .. a crunchy skeleton .. b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 09, 2020, 06:59:19 PM »
Sorry ..  having seen the loss of ice apparent in Aluminium's gif I was not ready to see a stall when in reality it was as bad a 4 day run as I've ever seen . And only a couple of days ago I was the one saying 'melt ponds' to Phoenix .. just today it did not compute .. massive ice loss recorded as a pause .. b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 09, 2020, 04:14:04 PM »
ta grixm  .. as it's very obvious actual area is shrinking during the last 4 days I suppose it must be assumed the drainage of melt ponds has helped cancel out the real decline ..
  open water has moved from 82.1'N to 82.8'N over the last week . If the current rate of melt/retreat continued , open water would reach the pole by mid September . Of course bottom melt could accelerate this and a change in weather could postpone it for another year .. b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 09, 2020, 03:43:08 PM »
While extent continues to drop, area has actually stalled for the last 4 days. More draining melt ponds?

 where is that graph from ? what is it showing? 
.. and why does it bear no relation to Gerontocrat's updates or what appears to be happening ? b.c.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: July 09, 2020, 01:06:07 PM »
As a consequence of the idiocy found daily on fb I posted this today ..

                 The means of Corona virus spread has finally been identified .

                           It is caused by the love farts of flying pigs

 any scientific arguement against this SELF-EVIDENT TRUTH will be met with laughter

Fuck off you mother fucking cunts ! It's time for moderation ! :) just b.c.

<moderation done - BK>

Indeed 2020 .. you want the shitty ending ?

 ..  As even Phoney's Beaufort's ice drifts to oblivion the Democrat's promise such change that Trump returns triumphant on a rising tide of fear ! :) b.c.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: July 08, 2020, 11:36:30 AM »
can anyone explain German humour ? :) b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 08, 2020, 09:22:48 AM »

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 07, 2020, 06:14:39 PM »
The 5 day average NSIDC loss in the CAB on July 4 was 83.8k km2 or a total of 418k for the 5 days.

The current 5 day average through July 6th is 15.7k km2 or 88.5k km2 for the 5 days.

The difference in CAB area decline for the two days that left the 5 day average (June 30 and July 1) and the last two days that entered the 5 day average is 330k km2.

There are many potential explanations and I'm not going to try. Just an interesting bit of data to mull over.

melt ponds draining .. next step on the way to iceobliteration .. b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 07, 2020, 06:00:08 PM »
If you want to see what happens next if we have another week or two of anticyclone followed by whatever comes next take a look at Kara/ CAB . Browned ice is simply vanishing in situ. The streak from 79N 90E to 82N 90E ..@ 50,000 sqkm of 3 days ago has been collapsing .. especially where it has been pushed toward the island,944464.758704975,1164876.4200908248,1112656.758704975&p=arctic&t=2020-07-05-T15%3A10%3A34Z&l=Graticule(hidden),Coastlines(hidden),VIIRS_SNPP_Brightness_Temp_BandI5_Night(hidden,palette=green_1,min=220.7,max=240.2,squash=true),Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor

 just play the next 2 days .. b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 07, 2020, 11:35:11 AM »
[quote author=Phoenix link=topic=3017.msg272304#msg272304 date=1594107461

OK...what is epic about the 10 day forecast? I see a temp forecast at 850 hpa. Google tells me this is generally about 1.5km above sea level, above the boundary layer.

If I open the GFS forecast and look what's doing in 10 days at sea level, I see the warm spots wherever this is open water in the forecast and all the ice covered areas are actually pretty mild ..


It's not as if you haven't been helped to understand the relevance of using 850hpa temps before ..
The 850 hPa temperature is somewhere away from the ice. I'm not sure of the altitude, maybe someone with more knowledge than me can provide that.

But it is the temperature adjacent to the ice that is going to impact the ice, not the temperature 1,000 feet above sea level. For the benefit of the lurkers who are reading the thread, I think it's useful to kick the tires and questions some assumptions about the magnitude of the current events.

The heat coming into the Chukchi and ESS and the high winds pushing ice through Fram is quite significant and easily understandable and acceptable. No problem.

Maintaining heat over ice for a very long distance over ice and delivering it to the surface of much of the CAB where it can impact the ice in May is a completely differently animal. Skepticism of this is healthy from a scientific perspective.

Surface air temperatures over the ice are held close to a 0C maximum due to the latent heat of fusion of ice. This is quite apparent each year on the DMI 80N temperatures. For that reason, using something like the 850hPa temperature (or the less common, 925hPa value) is useful for assessing the relative heat mass over the ice. It's far from perfect, and temperature inversions, fog and such will add more complications, but much of the time in summer, 850hPa temperatures are more useful than surface temperatures.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 06, 2020, 01:21:57 PM »
indeed Jim .. also a great day to look back at 2013 .. it looked like the end of the world in comparison to today .. yet it has become 'just another year' . b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 06, 2020, 12:59:36 PM »
What do you think, what is the chance that melting could reach North Pole this year from the Russian side?

  or Greenland ?

I was very confident in 2016 and then the melting season stalled , as did the freezing season . A cool August can change everything . But this year has a very different feel thus far .

 Could that 977mb 'storm' way out at 384 hrs be replaced by a 1025+ high in the next forecast ? It has been known to happen ! :) b.c.
ps 1030+ ! .. still plenty of time for a storm or few .. more melt in the meantime ...

Arctic sea ice / Re: The caa-greenland mega crack
« on: July 01, 2020, 02:05:46 AM »
Thanks JayW .. the moment has been lost now from Worldview .. but you have captured it beautifully .. bc

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 01, 2020, 01:24:17 AM »
How is northern Siberia hotter than Turkmenistan?  Crazy.

sun , sun and more sun , 24 hrs on .. and on and on .. meanwhile they shiver in the cold desert dawn in Turkmenistan , fresh to meet the heat of the day again .. b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The caa-greenland mega crack
« on: July 01, 2020, 01:16:36 AM »
There was a lift-off of the ice East of Alert around to the Nares enterance . It can be seen best on Worldview atm as you zoom in @ 50km/50ml a.. as you zoom closer the frame changes to showing cracking but the departure from shore is no longer clear .
  Lincoln is an amazing zone of shear , disintergration and melting of what looked like the safest ice in the Arctic only 2 weeks ago .
         +++             It's now gettin' ground up like salt in situ !  b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 30, 2020, 10:16:24 PM »
hi JNap , for sun I don't recall any better period than last year but @ 30 days earlier .. I recall the sun shining at the pole for days on end , it was earlier and cooler . The ice between Siberia and the pole looks worse now than last year after the event .. b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 30, 2020, 09:52:10 PM »

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 30, 2020, 09:15:12 PM »
It looks like the final break-up in the Nares strait is a fact.

 what made me change my date ? Oh yes .. it's been the 30th June 3 times before of late .. impressive for such an apparently random event .

 btw Fg .. that latest forecast has the remains of Jac in the rather impressive Siberian low out at day 10 . I followed a long lived little storm over the basin before .. this one has certainly played a role this summer and much more to come it seems .
Unless a lot changes and soon , this year may well beat 2012 by a 'country mile'  . b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 30, 2020, 08:56:58 PM »
the latest gfs is so far 'beyond belief' as far as the Arctic basin is concerned that it seems to have crashed or been pulled at 240 hours out .. I've never seen a gfs forecast get stuck before .. but then I've never seen one like this .. which follows .. which follows ..

I said a couple of days ago every forecast was worse than the last . Surely this is enough ? b.c.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: June 30, 2020, 01:25:47 AM »
and just @ every thought above has been raised by me over the years .. from changing the stupid Q title to hiving off the politics .
 Idiot that I was , I came here to learn and access the knowledge and leads of those already busy providing access to a wealth of info . As a newbie I lurked .. probably took 2 years to make 100 posts . I appreciated what I had found ( invited here by Born From The Void .. an occasional visitor these days (and scientist) ) and have rarely missed a day in over 7 years .
 I pm'd A-team 10 days ago .. he's well and still active in the background . Funny , when I searched for A-team , a comment from Rod to Rich (Phoenix) appeared .

Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #65 on: July 14, 2019, 04:11:27 AM »
Quote from: Rich on July 14, 2019, 03:59:57 AM

Stop with the amateur mind reading.


That said, maybe some people think a newbie should just shut up and listen and not participate until after the world is condemned to a shitty outcome? We can agree to disagree about that.

I don't aspire to be popular and liked by anyone but I'm not doing anything with the intention of pissing anyone else off either. I'm not a troll. An asshole? OK. But not a troll. I'm genuine and transparent (which may be worse depending on your perspective).

Thanks for pointing out that I screwed up the quotation marks in that recent comment. I fixed it asap.

''This is bull shit.  We have all supported your right to post your theories even as a newbie.   I went to war for you with A-team when he tried to shut you up.''

I’m getting discouraged by the way you continuously say things that are on the fringe, and then pretend to be insulted when people point out your mistakes.

It has become very disruptive.


 It was that sort of thing that caused me to offer my services in moderation . And that had nothing to do with the political threads but rather the politics and gamesmanship going on in the Cryosphere threads the last couple of seasons which has been a spur to A-team and others stepping back
 None of this helps the ice or educates anyone . I'd rather be everyone's friend and get on with watching the greatest show on earth until my gb's run out ( as they do most months )

..and as I (and Oren) say .. only Neven has a say .. b.c.

Anyone that gets their scientific information from Facebook, deserves what they get.

sadly , that seems to be most of my friends on facebook .. before , they used to show discernment , now they are parrots and trumpettes ..

and I certainly wouldn't want the moderator's job ..

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 28, 2020, 04:46:11 PM »
Indeed Uniquorn , had thought shadows may have been playing tricks but it looks pretty certain the Nares is open for business .. b.c.

 12 hours later and I'm not so sure ..

' Zuckerberg is scum ' .. my train of thought yesterday included the option of going back in time and changing the world of today .. I chose to help avoid Zuckerberg being . b.c.

Consequences / Re: Forests: An Endangered Resource
« on: June 28, 2020, 12:02:21 PM »
here Channel 4 reported on IKEA's devastation of Ukraine's ancient beech forests , illegally harvested but every tree has it's FSC stamp . Corruption at every level .. b.c.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: June 28, 2020, 11:58:55 AM »
if Trump gets in again , middle finger salutes may attract the death penalty just bc .

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: June 28, 2020, 04:00:26 AM »
^^ + 1

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 28, 2020, 03:41:32 AM »
Indeed Uniquorn , had thought shadows may have been playing tricks but it looks pretty certain the Nares is open for business .. b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 27, 2020, 11:50:41 PM »
.. and if that Euro were to be realized Kara would be ice-free in 10 days . The Laptev wouldn't be far behind and there would be little thick ice hiding behind islands .It ends with a much weakened and warmed CAA being tested .
  The gfs has become progressively warmer with each forecast today as well .. b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 27, 2020, 11:29:10 PM »
Quote from: Gandul   At first glance, that was an area which froze last year when a few days before it had been actively melting, and had had large areas of open water interspersed with partially melted-out MYI floes. This year the thin FYI melted all-at-once, and it's deja-vu all over again.

Quote from: Pagophilus on Today at 08:00:18 PM
Has there been some refreeze in the ESS?  Or is this old refreeze? Or not.  Second image is for locating the first 'closeup'.  Worldview 06/27/2020.
I am too inexperienced to tell, or to know if this is even possible at this point in the year.  Whatever it is, this ??? refreeze ??? ice seems present over much of the ESS 'rubble ice field'.  Will gladly receive an education on this.


.. and although Jac lacked GAC status it certainly had (and continues to have) local oomph , including lowering temperatures esp. at 850mb but at sea level too . The GAC in August 2016 brought lower temps throughout the basin and (in my opinion) brought the melting season to an unexpectedly rapid end . b.c.

there is a report of movement the length of the strait on the melt thread , but I'm not so sure , little movement at the N end beyond the new crack .. but it does seem only hours away ..

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 27, 2020, 08:18:20 PM »
Hi Pagophilus can you show an earlier shot of it before it 'froze' for comparison , as I'm not sure anything much has changed .

Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: June 27, 2020, 03:53:13 PM »
Thanks JD .. your no dig detailed info is invaluable :)

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 27, 2020, 01:08:23 PM »
with the northern ice all having moved last w/e and now the bulk of the southern half on the move , only the actual arch and @ 50km of ice in the north/central had not moved by last night . A lot of ice has moved @ 10 km in the last 3 days so the pressure has certainly built up . As Monday is my forecast for the arch to fail , I'm enjoying the excitement and spectacularly good visibility atm . b.c.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: June 26, 2020, 05:03:54 PM »
An almost stupid question ..
 ever since the first image of this coronavirus appeared in the British media it has been shown as rather pretty and multi-coloured .. any 3 year old would love a few in their Xmas stocking ..

could such pretty pics have affected Boris and co.'s response ? Could such images have resulted in more death than if they had been dark , gray and forboding ? b.c.

<cleaned up link. kassy>

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: June 26, 2020, 01:56:37 PM »
  ^^ I go where 'e goes ..:)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 26, 2020, 12:24:27 PM »
''This model has been showing an active garlic press, or perhaps cheese grater or ice cream scoop since may.'' .. OTG post 1871 ..
  Oh No it hasn't .. no ice has moved south through the channels .. the very definition of the garlic press at work . As Friv has since highlighted , a southerly will continue to roast the channels over the coming days and probably push the main pack off shore . This is the weather preparing the way for activity sooner or later .. i fear sooner .. b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 26, 2020, 12:57:58 AM »
That HYCOM model ^^ predicts lift off of the thickest ice , which may soon come slamming back and have us an active garlic press by the middle of July . Just one of the many reasons this could still be BOE No 1 ! b.c.

June 29th is getting closer .. as is our grand opening . Then ten days later , the garlic Press .. :) b.c.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: June 24, 2020, 12:14:27 PM »
whisper it loudly .. <3

The politics / Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« on: June 23, 2020, 09:18:43 PM »
  ^^^ this is why I didn't choose to let this thread through .. can we at least drop it from the front page ?

The forum / Re: Forum Software
« on: June 22, 2020, 12:22:13 PM »
on behalf of everyone lacking unlimited broadband , thank you Oren for your efforts and Neven for making the change . cheers ! b.c.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: June 22, 2020, 10:45:19 AM »
Sorry , my postings being a bit haphazard lately probably helped lead you astray . Perhaps the humor thread ?  ;) PC b.c.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: June 22, 2020, 01:03:24 AM »

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: June 21, 2020, 05:00:09 PM »

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 21, 2020, 01:33:39 AM »
Now events are warming up , and a fresh image this evening on worldview shows open cracks E and W of the entrance and open water in the strait near Lincoln . In 2016 it took quite a while to fully wake up .. but this is 2020 . and I'm looking forward to the next clear day .. b.c.

The rest / Re: Masks
« on: June 20, 2020, 06:31:40 PM »
Finally bought myself a packet :) .. the chemist was discreet .. b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 20, 2020, 06:08:05 PM »
Further to the conversation re the ESS SIA , with a further drop of 35k today I guess we are in Friv's 'never before in modern human history' territory . Thanks Gero. for the reliability of your updates ! :) b.c.

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