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Messages - solartim27

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Antarctica / Re: Potential Collapse Scenario for the WAIS
« on: October 11, 2017, 05:54:46 PM »
Nice article and short video on warm water melting a channel under the Dotson glacier.  The average melt is 6 - 7 m/yr, while video says the localized channel melt is 14 m/yr.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: October 09, 2017, 05:14:25 PM »
This is as bad as it can get.  Massive fires developing overnight,  saw a video from 4 AM of hospital patients being evacuated.

A NASA study has located the Antarctic glaciers that accelerated the fastest between 2008 and 2014 and finds that the most likely cause of their speedup is an observed influx of warm water into the bay where they're located.

The water was only 1 to 2 degrees Fahrenheit (0.5 to 1 degree Celsius) warmer than usual water temperatures in the area, but it increased the glaciers' flow speeds by up to 25 percent and multiplied the rate of glacial ice loss by three to five times -- from 7 to 10 feet of thinning per year (2 to 3 meters) up to 33 feet per year (10 meters).

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: August 27, 2017, 06:38:23 PM »
In case you missed this in December, it's coming true now.  Excellent reporting, well worth looking at.  Stock market is going to tank on Monday.
This is part of a series on Houston's flood risk.

Boomtown, Flood Town
"Climate change will bring more frequent and fierce rainstorms to cities like Houston. But unchecked development remains a priority in the famously un-zoned city, creating short-term economic gains for some while increasing flood risks for everyone."

And do read the companion piece
This is part of a series on Houston's flood risk. Read about why Texas isn't ready for the next big hurricane.

Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: August 22, 2017, 05:59:57 PM »
I don't think this one is conservative, because I don't think people will be stupid enough to move into places like Miami or Shanghai once SLR has accelerated to a sufficient level that everyone notices it. We'll just have to move all the people out of the low-lying areas rather than moving people who moved there out as well.

Apologies for the late reply, but plenty of people are noticing.  I would like to see the owner occupancy stats for the Miami area, as in how high is the market propped by speculative investors and money launderers.

And just a great video here, showing new elevated construction on a sewage flooded street, where pumps will never be installed (at 6:30 minutes in, but watch the whole thing)

Then there's the denial of flood claims because your first floor business is now a 'basement'

(Edit:,US/PST045216 shows 54% owner occupied versus 64% national rate, for 2011 - 2015)

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 22, 2017, 05:29:48 PM »
Any ideas as to what that big iceberg-looking thing is?
Last remains of the Fortress of Solitude

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: August 16, 2017, 05:44:32 AM »

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: August 12, 2017, 06:22:09 PM »

Glaciers / Re: Alaska Glaciers
« on: August 12, 2017, 08:54:09 AM »
Insane footage from Ruth Glacier
natgeoVideo by @renan_ozturk @sanctityofspace collection // A phenomenon of the Ruth Glacier Alaska. While filming on the glacier @freddiewilkinson noticed a couple hundred ft wide bubbling pool about a mile away from the terminus of the main glacier. The Ruth Glacier is among the thickest glaciers on earth at around 4000ft but is melting fast with the effects of climate change. We have asked a few friends but are still unsure if this is natural or abnormal. The forces seem accelerated these days as water is drawn down 'moulins' or shafts in the glacier only to emerge in such a startling high volume pool so far down valley. The inner workings are a bit of a mystery and scientific study waiting to happen but I can't help but think of it as one of my favorite places bleeding out under a warming planet. For more images of the Alaska range see @renan_ozturk @sanctityofspace. ~ Aerial DP's @camp4collective @ansonfogel @zatzworks

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 12, 2017, 06:53:09 AM »
A quick gif of a god chunk of the Beaufort area.  Looks like a good chunk of the white stuff in the Aug 11 image is clouds.

Glaciers / Re: Himalayan glaciers
« on: August 09, 2017, 09:24:16 PM »
Karakoram Vortex sounds like a good band name.

A summer ‘vortex’ of cold air over the Karakoram mountain range is causing the glaciers in the region to grow in spite of global warming, scientists have shown.

Publishing their findings today in Nature Climate Change, the team from Newcastle University, UK, have identified a large scale circulation system – or vortex – centred over the Karakoram, a large mountain range spanning the borders of Pakistan, India, and China.

In winter, the vortex affects the temperature over the whole 2,000 kilometre mountain range, but in the summer the vortex contracts and has an effect only over the Karakoram and western Pamir.

This induces an anomalous cooling in summer which is different to the warming seen over the rest of the Himalaya.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: August 07, 2017, 09:12:04 PM »
Here's some historical data showing pixels with >30% confidence

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: August 07, 2017, 08:11:21 PM »
Wildfires?  (Cross post from Wildfire thread)
And now Greenland is burning, though it has happened before.
More pics here:

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: August 07, 2017, 08:08:51 PM »
And now Greenland is burning, though it has happened before.
More pics here:

Good article here, lots of pictures and video
Approximately 12 percent of Greenland's ice takes this path - and, as scientists have proven in recent years, the velocity of these flows is increasing. "The ice stream seems to be on the brink of a change," says Dorthe Dahl-Jensen of the University of Copenhagen.
Wrapped in a thick blue, down jacket with a fur collar, the silver-haired glaciologist has just stepped off a special plane. She's leading a field camp where scientists are about to research precisely this change. The project is called EastGRIP. In the name of science, a hole will be drilled through Greenland's 2.5-kilometer-thick (1.5 mile) ice shield. To execute the work, around 20 people are currently living right on the ice, at the 75th parallel north.

Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: July 23, 2017, 07:57:53 PM »
5 days, July 18 to 23.  Large motion, with big rift development behind the main crack.  Click to animate

Antarctica / Re: Rift in Larsen C
« on: July 22, 2017, 05:25:27 PM »
The rifts behind the initial crack show signs of widening.  This could get interesting fast (or not).  28 Jun to 22 Jul  Click required, then you'll want to zoom in

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 16, 2017, 07:12:23 AM »
From Anatarctica, appears Suomi is picking up Auroras

Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: July 15, 2017, 05:02:40 PM »
This tweet has a nice video from the ice bridge flight  from 11/2016, crossing from PIG to the SW Tributary

Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: July 13, 2017, 06:06:56 PM »
Guess we'll have to wait at least one more lunar cycle.  Maybe with the new moon?

Now that Larsen broke, we can pay attention to these rifts in Ross.  Anyone think it's worthy of it's own thread?  There is a small extension of the rift off the page to the right side.  Click to animate

Policy and solutions / Re: Liars vs hypocrites
« on: July 09, 2017, 05:21:41 PM »
Much food for thought on how to win the argument(s).
The Skeptical Science website also has a good section on myth debunking

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: July 09, 2017, 02:47:13 AM »
From Weird Weather
Nearly 2,000 firefighters battling out-of-control wildfires in B.C.
Province in state of emergency as more than 7,000 people are forced from their homes

"A state of emergency remains in effect for all of B.C., giving the government special authority to respond to the fires. Such a state hasn't been declared province-wide since the summer of 2003, when 2,500 fires broke out."

Not looking to good up in Yukon / NW Terr either (Worldview 8 Jul)

Antarctica / Re: Rift in Larsen C
« on: July 07, 2017, 08:31:13 PM »
Nice picture in this tweet.
Adrian Luckman (@adrian_luckman) tweeted at 2:53 PM on Thu, Jul 06, 2017:
Close-up of #Sentinel1 Larsen C interferogram - rift branches in all directions. See also: Not one clean berg then!

The calving continues at Thwaites, 22 Jun to 4 July

Great video from Sep 2016 to May here:

Likely to be more in the near future (this is full translated text, minus links to other articles)
Apparently there is not just one - but two - areas at risk of landslide at Nuugaatsiaq and Illorsuit.

It assesses geologists from GEUS with Asiaq, writes Sermitsiaq.AG.

The newspaper is the new and novel area about five kilometers west of the mountain, which slithered down and triggered tsunami for just over two weeks ago.

This is not to say how large an area is involved.

- It is more diffuse, and therefore we can not say very precisely how large the area is. But immediately it looks a little bigger than the piece that fell, says deputy director of GEUS Flemming Getreuer Christiansen to Sermitsiaq.AG.

Antarctica / Re: Rift in Larsen C
« on: June 29, 2017, 08:46:38 PM »
Here's how it looks on Sentinel.  Jun 4 - 28

Whoa!  Looks like there's more on the way!

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 27, 2017, 10:30:19 PM »
What are your guesses? Here i put my very simple idea about how the 2017 minimum might look like by the middle of September:
Trouble is this years melt will probably continue well past mid September.

More calving, with continued rift development and sea ice dispersal at Thwaites.  22 May to 25 Jun, Click to animate.  (1.7 Mb)

Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: June 19, 2017, 05:43:19 PM »
Here is a gif from 7 Jun to 19 Jun of the southern PIG / Tributary boundary.  It looks to me that the rift has had a significant extension.  I wonder how far back the calving will go when that cork blows out.  Looking back at the calving 2 years ago, it went right as the rift came in line with the mountain peak to the north (not in this image), which is right where the rift is now.  (Click)

Another good sized calving visible on worldview from Jun 13 - 14
Edit:  Added a gif

Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: June 05, 2017, 09:24:36 PM »
Here are the smaller gifs, and a shameless self promotion, crack propagation looks like just before the last calving with the lower resolution

Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: June 05, 2017, 09:09:41 PM »
Wonderful. Here is a sequence 12 days apart, that means the Sentinel is in identical orbital position.
Resolution of the image is 120m/pixel, implying the width of the image is about 68km.
There are hi-res images available from the 24th and 25th
A nice view of the last breakup 2 years ago, the posts before and after this have some good shots as well. 

I believe we are right on track for a very similar collapse of the soon to be newly calved berg.  Here is a gif from 14 May to 5 Jun ( Click to animate 1.7 Mb) with two close ups of the notch areas, posted seperately.  Note the new calving in the north notch. (55 Mb) (40 Mb)

Antarctica / Re: Rift in Larsen C
« on: June 04, 2017, 08:57:24 AM »
Here's a gif of the area from 17 Apr to 4 Jun.  Full size, so you'll need to click to animate and zoom in to the part you want to see (2.3 Mb).  The crack extension is barely discernable at this resolution.  (33 Mb) (70 Mb)

Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: May 25, 2017, 02:10:01 AM »
From Michael Lowry via Twitter
From another link in that feed
Michelle: Wow, that was an impressive Coastal El Niño! Since you had a front row seat can you put it in more context?

Ken: I wish we had been able to predict it with months in advance. It seems to have come out of nowhere. Although the far-eastern Pacific was somewhat warm throughout 2016, the warming in January 2017 was intense and abrupt.
Ken: From the limited data we have from 1925 (we only have some ship-based measurements along a few commercial tracks), we see there was a distinct progression of the warming sea surface from the east towards the west, accompanied by development of westerly wind anomalies that are part of the coupled ocean-atmosphere physics of ENSO. This led to the 1925-26 broad-scale Pacific warming, what you and many around the world simply call “El Niño”. ;)

Glaciers / Re: Alaska Glaciers
« on: May 22, 2017, 08:37:41 AM »
Mendenhall Glacier near Juneau, Alaska, has started to periodically flood the Mendenhall River on which the city sits

Nice drone footage from the area

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: May 09, 2017, 09:49:46 PM »
This is what happens when you have an INEPT UNQUALIFIED LEADER like Donnie.  He hires other unqualified leaders like Ricky. ;)
Much as I hate to say it, you can hardly hold drumpf accountable for a problem decades in the making.

Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: May 03, 2017, 03:39:22 AM »
Looks like the rift has made it to the notch at the top of the screen (to me).  Maybe it'll go with the next full moon?  Click to animate, (1.6 MB).
Apr 20 to May 2 (40 MB) (40 MB)

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: April 25, 2017, 08:14:05 AM »
: Espen link=topic=230.msg111111#msg111111 (April 24, 2017)and 2[sup
nd[/sup] lowest measured for the date.
A century, and the graph is flat?  Something seems wrong.

So let me propose another. Dianne Feinstein.
Could not agree more.  Haven't voted for her in the primaries for a while, and skip thatposition in the general now that it is top 2 in CA.

Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: April 22, 2017, 07:32:41 AM »
Here is a quick look over the past year.  See anything disturbing?  Click to animate.
(Tried a smaller version, 1 MB, it works!)(Oh well, I'm going to bed.  Here are the 2 pics, go full screen and toggle between them to your hearts content.  I was looking at the rifts between PIG and the Trib)  (38 MB)  (35 MB)

Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: April 17, 2017, 09:58:51 PM »
Thinking more about the lateral compression, it seems that there is a compression from the opposite side, a bit further down. This pushed the calving face to the river right, after passing Evans Knoll.

I suspect, but can't prove, that this deformation force increases the backpressure on the rest of the glacier, as it forces the visible bend to the river right.

I suspect that this deformation was part of the reason the calving broke off the way it did (first the river right, the the river left last, as it was in compression for the longest). I think this may be a protective factor, decreasing the chance of a large calving soon. I hope.

I worry about the rate of decline once the calving front passes those lateral pinning points.  That's when it'll really start flying. :(

A is the compression force due to Evans Knoll, B is the one on the opposite, causing the flexion around Evans Knoll.

I was surprised that PIG didn't go this summer, but it still looks like it can go at any time, as we are seeing increasing amounts of minor calving at the notches to either side of PIG. 

I believe the compression from the SW Trib described above is keeping it penned in.  There is a good image on that post, worth going back to review.
Click to animate and zoom in for a closer look. Dates are 23 Mar to 16 Apr.

Antarctica / Re: Thwaites Glacier Discussion
« on: April 13, 2017, 10:55:09 PM »
The matchup is not perfect, but it's close enough.  Doesn't seem to be a lot of change between the 11th to 13th.  Dates are 7, 11, 13 Apr.  3.2 MB, click to animate didn't work for me, had to right click and open in new window.

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