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Messages - Lord M Vader

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 01, 2020, 09:06:36 PM »
Yes, both GFS and EC are in line with each other. And it is a terrible forecast for ice retention. The question is not if it is going to be bad but HOW bad the situation will be for the ice. Two weeks with relentless sunshine and melt ponding over the CAB will take it's toll. The volume numbers should drop like a big stone.

I don't think we want to ser what's going to happen if that high pressure lingers another 1-2 weeks when we enter August.. :o

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 30, 2020, 10:48:21 PM »
The latest forecast from both GFS and EC is just BRUTAL. If this high pressure dome manages to hold out for the next 10 days, this season should very likely end up among the top 5 melting seasons. In the unlikely event that the GFS run would be able to hold for the next two weeks, or more, we should prepare for an ONSLAUGHT of the sea ice.

Was it back in 2015 we had an impressive high pressure that compensated for the cold June?

Friv will most likely come up with a very colorful language soon😎

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 29, 2020, 10:09:53 AM »
The 00z EC run is just as bad as the 12z run. The main question should be for how long the bad weather will persist? Ten days would clearly have a very big impact given that the suns power is starting to fade.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 21, 2020, 06:22:51 PM »
Friv, the reason for the low extent in the russian Arctic back in 1990 might be due to the strong polar vortex that was prevalent during January to March that year.

Wrt 2020, I do not expect a new record low this year. The most interesting questions this season should be how early the Northern Sea Route will open up and how far North the Laptev bite will reach?

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 13, 2020, 09:01:37 AM »
If EC run verifies we will in a couple of days enter a favorable pattern for ice retention. Should have a decent effect at this melting season.

OTOH, if the GFS model run verifies the Arctic will see a very bad pattern for ice retention.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 30, 2020, 09:14:27 PM »
Latest EC 12z op model run is a tough one for the sea nice if it would verify. Especially for the later part of the forecast run.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 12, 2020, 08:38:43 AM »
Kara should implode soon.

Another area that should see damage is the area just north of Svalbard. Hammered by a 961 hpa bomb cyclone in tandem with a 1044 hpa high pressure over the CAB will push some thick ice piled up there out in the Atlantic killer zone. However, this won't last long but should nevertheless have an impact on the ice.

Later in the forecast period, Laptev will take a big hit.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 12, 2020, 06:07:18 AM »
Kara should go berserk soon as the WAA is heading for the area.

9
Arctic sea ice / The 2020 melting season
« on: March 13, 2020, 10:24:24 PM »
The last couple of days have seen a decline in the sea ice extent in Arctic, mostly confined to peripheral areas. Whether this downward trend is signaling the "onset" of the melting is an open question. However, we are in the middle of March and this year the upcoming weeks will probably be terribly slow for most of us. So, if Neven is OK with maning an exception for this year I hope we can start the discussions about the 2020 melting season.

The strong polar vortex that bottled up the cold air over the central Arctic basin should have strengthened the ice enough to make the 2020 minimum end up higher than the last few years. At least if we Have a moderately bad summer.

I hope everyone in here will be with us through the whole season and many more years ahead. Stay safe out there!

//LMV

<edit Neven: I don't have time to follow current events in the Arctic, so I can't assess whether it's too early for this thread or not, which means I'll leave it open. I did adjust the title though. If there's a second max, this is on you, LMV.  ;) >

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 07, 2020, 05:41:11 AM »
Juan C: which are the other years next to 2004? I.e the years at place 16-20.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 02, 2019, 09:41:21 AM »
Once Laptev Sea has frozen over we will very likely see a big slowdown in externt increases. Main difference right now is in Kara Sea. OTOH, Chukchi Sea continues to be at record low levels.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 26, 2019, 07:04:09 AM »
Don't worry Juan, in a couple of days 2016 will be lowest on record. Any thing else would be surprising.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 12, 2019, 07:19:59 PM »
If we are eyeballing DMIs graph over Arctic temperaturen, we should start to see some decent extent gains soon. As Friv has pointed out earlier in another thread we should be very grateful that the melting in ESS was so resistent. Otherwise, the situation would have been a lot worse.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 09, 2019, 06:40:35 PM »
A few days ago, NSIDC reported a 70k loss. Being in October it has to be a rather rare occurrence. Anyone who knows how common externt losses are in October?

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 22, 2019, 10:30:24 AM »
Archimid and Stephen, you should reiterate your posts from that thread too. After that, Neven can probably remove it.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 22, 2019, 10:27:10 AM »
Apparently, Neven didn't reopen my refreezing thread that was first I will reiterate my text from my post in that thread:

"First, 2019 has been a very bad year for the ice and will by extent numbers most likely end up being second lowest on record behind 2012. It remains to see where the volume will end up. We might imagine just how bad the season would have been if the weather pattern hadn't eased during July. Especially the ESS would have been warmer as pointed out by Friv in the melting thread.

However, as most people know 2012 was followed by two very good years for ice retention which 2013 and 2014 actually was. Since then, we have seen a Super El Nino and we now have a warmer world.

Another thing that will make its appearence is the Arctic amplification. Remember that 2012 refroze quickly after minima was achieved? Given all that heat that has been stored in Chukchi and Berings Sea, the refreezing should likely be much slower than back in 2012. And, regent winters have been warmer than 2013.

Can we hope for another 2013? I am pessimistic that we will have such luck again. More likely is a troublesome refreezing season. Another question is for how much longer we'll see -AO dominate? Worst possibly outcome is if 2019 is going to be a "prepper" year followed by an egen worse 2020...."

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 20, 2019, 10:58:47 PM »
Rox: Most likely yes. NSIDC 5-day average had a minor increase today. Up from 4,153 to 4,154 million square kilometers.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 20, 2019, 10:00:59 PM »
Neven, are you reopening the refreezing thread today or tomorrow?  ;)

The fat lady has finally sung...

Great job Gerontocrat and Juan C. Garcia, thank you both 8) 8) You have earned a very well deserved rest now :)

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 19, 2019, 07:37:57 AM »
With that increase I think it's very likely that 2019 melting season is over. Seems very hard to have another decrease this late in the season.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 18, 2019, 03:01:24 PM »
WOW, just WOW!!! NSIDC just came in with a big fat century break(!) Yes, a CENTURY BREAK(!!) How many times Have THAT happened at this time at year, or at least in September?😵 Anyone who knows?

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 17, 2019, 06:46:23 AM »
An amazingly surprising end of the 2019 melting season! Let's see if NSIDC manages to go second lowest too.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 07, 2019, 10:16:09 AM »
Time to restart the thread about refreezing season now Neven?🙂

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 25, 2019, 09:26:29 AM »
A lot of weather action the next 10 days according to EC 00z op run! The Atlantic sector will take a really big hit the first five days. And by the end of the forecast run EC hints of a possible bombcyclone over Kara Sea followed by a big dipole.

 

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: August 23, 2019, 10:36:23 AM »
There is already a thread for the upcoming freezing season that I started a couple of days ago. And that thread was blocked by Mr. Neven😁

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 20, 2019, 08:43:47 PM »
EC 12z op run has the cyclone down to 972 hpa. Not a GAC but surely an intensive bomb cyclone. Will be really interesting to see what this cyclone will do to the ice.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: August 17, 2019, 10:50:48 PM »
The southern route of the Northwest Passage, Amundsens route is now more or less navigable. A few floes remains in the eastern part of the route but should melting out soon. Look at todays view at EOSDIS NASA satellite pic.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 17, 2019, 10:48:13 PM »
From what I can see at EOSDIS NASA satellite, the Northwest Passage, e.g Amundsens route, is now more or less navigable. A few floes remains at the east side but should melt out soon.

28
Arctic sea ice / 2020 refreezing season
« on: August 16, 2019, 07:55:14 PM »
While it might be somewhat early to discuss how the upcoming refreezing season will evolve I will at least open up the topic for discussion as the melting season is quickly winding down.

First, 2019 has been a very bad year for the ice and will by extent numbers most likely end up being second lowest on record behind 2012. It remains to see where the volume will end up. We might imagine just how bad the season would have been if the weather pattern hadn't eased during July. Especially the ESS would have been warmer as pointed out by Friv in the melting thread.

However, as most people know 2012 was followed by two very good years for ice retention which 2013 and 2014 actually was. Since then, we have seen a Super El Nino and we now have a warmer world.

Another thing that will make its appearence is the Arctic amplification. Remember that 2012 refroze quickly after minima was achieved? Given all that heat that has been stored in Chukchi and Berings Sea, the refreezing should likely be much slower than back in 2012. And, regent winters have been warmer than 2013.

Can we hope for another 2013? I am pessimistic that we will have such luck again. More likely is a troublesome refreezing season. Another question is for how much longer we'll see -AO dominate? Worst possibly outcome is if 2019 is going to be a "prepper" year followed by an egen worse 2020....

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 15, 2019, 05:04:03 PM »
Eyeballing the CAA it seems likely that the southern part of Northwest Passage will open up. Regarding the deeper Parry Channel I think it will remain blocked by ice. However, it is possible that McClure Strait will connect to the Parry Channel and at least partially open up the more northerly route.


30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 14, 2019, 09:55:09 PM »
Recent EC op run depicts a serious blow to parts of the Atlantic side as southerlies are entering. The melting is however quickly winding down but given the fairly weak state of the ice there I won't be surprised if we are going to see some decent drops over the next 10 days or so.

Also seems likely that some ice transport to the Beaufort will materialize if the forecast holds.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 11, 2019, 09:48:17 AM »
Latest EC op run is a disaster for the ice. The thicker ice at the Atlantic side will be flushed out right into the the toilet, e.g big ice export. While the externt numbers might not be too influenced by this weather, the volume numbers should take a serious hit.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 06, 2019, 09:56:38 AM »
Latest EC op run is interesting in the longer frame. A big HP seems to establish over the whole Arctic and bring warm and sunny weather to the ice. The sun is still pretty strong so damage will be done. In addition, a decent amount of ice should be exported to the Atlantic killer zone.

Even if we don't get a new record low this year, 2019 should serve as a good "prepper year" if 2020 should be another bad year for the ice.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 23, 2019, 02:40:13 PM »
Thanks dnem!

My condoleances for you Neven. Take care of yourself.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 23, 2019, 01:23:12 PM »
What sad thing has happened to Neven? :'(

The foreseen dipole might not be long lived which would be good.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 14, 2019, 10:01:13 PM »
Agree 100% with Friv about the BOE. It is not going to happen.

2012 is on everyones lips here but most people forget that 2012 not only had extremely good preconditioning and melting momentum but also two "prepper" years as both 2011 and 2010 was.

Personally, I think 2019 will end up at place 2-5 depending on the weather conditions during the next month.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 12, 2019, 09:55:31 AM »
Laptev bite has reached 80°N now.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 10, 2019, 10:07:32 AM »
Friv is correct wrt the snow cover in 2012. NSIDC wrote that most of the melting of sea ice around Antarctica is due to bottom melting. Melting ponds are rarely observed onto the ice. A lot of precip is falling onto the ice around Antarctica.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 08, 2019, 09:05:01 PM »
 EC 12op has a 977 hpa Intensive cyclone in Laptev at D9-10. Night be interesting if it pans out. D6-8 has dipole.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 07, 2019, 09:23:59 AM »
Friv: The 00z EURO is brutal through D7.

Indeed Friv, indeed! This year we might call the high pressure domination in Arctic: "Ridiculously Resilient Arctic Ridge". Most people at the forum remember RRR that hovered west of US for a few years.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 06, 2019, 09:52:27 PM »
EC 12z op is really bad! Unlike the GFS 12z run, the model run is NOT breaking down the effect from the FSW (earlier post wrt Judah Cohens tweet).

Both moďels are quite consistent in that next four days or so will be impacted by bad weather for the sea ice. Bwyond that, the models are diverging.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 06, 2019, 06:39:48 PM »
Latest GFS 12z op run hints of another 4-5 days with bad weather for the ice. After that we might see more ice friendly weather.

At D4 we are at July 10. The question is whether this is too late or not to put a decent brake on the heavy ice loss we have seen? If so, I will not be too surprised if the first ten days of July will see above average volume losses followed by more seasonable losses when next update from PIOMAS is out.


42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 05, 2019, 10:57:56 PM »
Seems like a potential polynya might develop in the area around 82°N 150°W in the western CAB. Many small holes in the ice there that vän be sen at EOADIS NASA. Troublesome!

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 04, 2019, 09:32:50 PM »
I do not appreciate the latest EC run! The more benign conditions that have been present from earlier runs is not as discernible in this run. Kara Sea seems to be the only region that will see "ice friendly" conditions, from D4 and onward then. First the area will be hammered over next 48 hours or so. But not much ice left there anyway.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 04, 2019, 08:51:15 AM »
Both the Pacific and the Atlantic side will get hammered during the next 5-6 days or so. After that it looks like things will calm down somewhat and give the icemore of s relief from constant hammering. Of course, a minor cyclone moving directly over "weak" ice in the border area between Laptev/ESS and CAB at D6-D8 might be a problem at that moment if the forecast holds. The damage is already done however.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 01, 2019, 10:34:20 PM »
Magnamentis:  ;D ;D ;D Thanks for that, made me laugh!




46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 01, 2019, 07:38:17 PM »
The latest operational GFS rum is a really sobering one.

Neven, it was funny. But WD88 has not responsed to you yet. ;D

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 01, 2019, 08:44:59 AM »
EC 00 run puts the sea ice at Death row....

48
As first böter, I think we likely will be in the orange 4,00-4,50. Depending on how July unfolds I night bin den one step at next time for voting.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 30, 2019, 11:16:25 PM »
Neven: yes, that's the maps.😊

In 3-4 days we should get a clue about just how bad this month been to the ice when PIOMAS present their data for June.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 30, 2019, 10:32:37 PM »
Great job Neven! One question, how does melting momentum map looks like now compared to earlier records low years after this June?

From EC ensembles, next week looks rather consistent in bringing bad weather for the ice. Especially CAA and the Atlantic sector should take a big hit. What happens beyond that I think will be a key to the outcome of this melting season. If the weak cyclones manager to break through the high pressure dome and take over the weather pattern for a few weeks or so it might be enough to prevent a new record low minimum.

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