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Messages - SteveMDFP

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« on: September 15, 2019, 09:47:45 PM »
...
I suppose if you get some enjoyment from it, go for it.
But frankly,  I just can't be arsed to spend any of my limited resources to tell them they are a bunch of shits.

You're certainly right that engaging with a committed denier won't alter the denier.
But in a public forum, there's always many more people reading than participating.  Many of them are on the fence.  Effective, reasoned posts can shift the views of the readership.

But it's a massive, thankless, Sisyphean task.   Kudos to Jim for fighting the good fight.  Personally, I don't have the patience, time, or stomach for it.  Maybe when I'm retired from employment.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: September 15, 2019, 08:49:09 PM »

Whenever a curve or line is fitted to a graph it is to illustrate a correlation; such a correlation is the decline in sea ice volume over the last few decades. I'm no expert in sea ice modelling but, there is a fundamental need to understand how one would apply a model to be able to predict future conditions.

To understand a correlation a model is built. The model can perhaps take the starting data and then show how sea ice has changed on a year to year basis (hind casting). It can then be used to predict the future, and it's skill tested by it's ability to do so. Models are only as good as the test conditions applied. Hindcasting can be tricky as there is the temptation to model fit the data.

Obviously models based on a line fit are incorrect, they can be trivial disproved by projecting backwards in time and showing that there wasn't that much ice 10000 years ago. I hear the 'but there wasn't GHG emissions" so immediately the model has to include global warming from GHG gases. Assumptions are disproved, the model improves. If a model can effectively hind cast current sea ice from pre industrial times, then we perhaps have a chance of predicting more accurately what the future holds.

At least correlate global temperatures with sea ice volume, that seems like a better starting point than time.

Thank you.  This is a very nice summary of the issues at hand in the matter of projecting ongoing arctic sea ice loss.

3
1 gigaton of ice ~= 1km^3

Late at night, I mixed up my gt, tons & '000s of tonnes when trying to do the analysis in a hurry.
That'll teach me..

So I am deleting the post and doing it again.

Damn & Blast, sorry all. Mea Culpa

Well, what's a few orders of magnitude among friends?

4
The rest / Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« on: September 10, 2019, 06:41:31 PM »


You point out how Bernie is the candidate who achieved that goal already, but you don't end your post with 'and therefore Bernie is the real deal'?

You see how rare such a chance is, and then you dismiss it instead of grabbing it?

We now see the whole democratic mainstream narrative shifting because Bernie relentlessly beating the same drums for the last 50 years but you see Warren as the hard worker?

Healthcare for all, Green New Deal, minimum wage, etc, that's what all the candidates talk about because Bernie shifted the Overton window. It's his contribution to the country already before even being president - but you see Warren as the reformer?
 

For all his time in Congress, Bernie has essentially ZERO legislative accomplishments.  He shows little ability to team with allies to accomplish concrete goals.

He talks a great platform.  He moves the content of the debate.  He's an inspiration.  But I don't believe he can be elected.  If elected, I don't believe he can get any of his agenda through Congress.

Warren has demonstrated impressive ability to enact reforms.  Her championing of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is proof.  This was anathema to Wall Street and big money.  It made good progress until the Trump administration de-fanged it.  She's worked tirelessly with anyone who will ally with her in pursuit of reforms.  I do note, however, that she's been an absolute whore for the medical device manufacturers in particular.  A key constituency in Mass.  A pragmatic necessity, as I see it.

In the current system, I don't believe any purist can be elected.  In this perspective, there is no contradiction at all with accepting Big Money while seeking to end the influence of Big Money.

Making progress within a deeply corrupt system cannot be accomplished by a lily-white purist.  We mustn't make the perfect the enemy of the good.

Bernie is an impractical, ineffective, but consistent idealist.  He's an inspiration.
Warren is a pragmatic, effective realist.  She can get things done.

5
The rest / Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« on: September 10, 2019, 03:23:11 PM »
How Elizabeth Warren Raised Big Money Before She Denounced Big Money

Link >> https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/09/us/politics/elizabeth-warren-2020.html

It's beyond me that people trust and support her...

American politics has massive built-in corruption.  It now typically takes about a BILLION dollars to run a campaign for President.  If one doesn't raise such a sum, one has little or no ability to respond to smears and lies and disinformation.

There are occasional examples of people running credible campaigns while raising much less money.  Bernie Sanders has built his own brand over many years, and has a large cadre of enthusiastic supporters, who give many, many small donations.  These examples are vanishingly rare.

Donald Trump has honed an ability to grab the media spotlight, by saying things that get massive attention in the media.  For his whole life, he's transfixed the media with his antics, while obfuscating the nature of his actions.

These two examples provide no workable model for most people of good will who want to run in order to reform all the dysfunction.  They need to raise a billion dollars, somehow.

If one is prepared to give a candidate the benefit of the doubt, accepting money now while declaring an ambition to end big money in politics is not an inherent contradiction or hypocrisy. It's unavoidable necessity in a structurally corrupt political system.

For me, Warren has demonstrated a very good (not perfect) record of being a reformer and hard-worker.

6
Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: September 09, 2019, 02:03:20 PM »


Gas/coal on average produce cca. 500kg-1 ton of Co2e
So if a 1MWh battery used 2370 t of Co2e  during manufacturing, it needs to be 100% recharged with energy 2370-4740 times before the offset starts to work. Since these are not recharged every day, you would need at the very least 20-30 years before the offset starts to work.

See:
https://www.quora.com/Where-can-I-find-data-for-CO2-emissions-per-MWh-for-electricity-sources-for-example-coal-vs-nat-gas
 

That's a very incomplete analysis.  The electricity provided by grid storage batteries doesn't only displace the carbon that would be emitted for the grid otherwise.  It displaces the need to create new fossil fuel plants.  It enhances the economics and utility of renewable energy sources to further displace fossil fuel generation.

There's an underlying silly reasoning used against building a renewable energy infrastructure, that building such infrastructure will create more CO2 than it's worth. 

Well, all economic activity that uses electricity will create CO2 until the grid is based on renewable sources.  Almost all other current uses of fossil fuels *can* be shifted to electricity.  Civilization can operate with a very low carbon footprint, if an initial investment is made in building a renewable infrastructure, even if that initial investment is itself carbon-intensive.

One could use the same faulty logic in reverse.  Imagine a society that was already running on 100% renewables.  They decide to shift to fossil fuel generation, because building those coal-burning electrical plants would be created using renewable energy, and thus have no carbon footprint!!  Insanity.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: September 08, 2019, 06:05:50 PM »
. . .2012 was more of the second type of melt chronology, and I bet the GAC ended up venting a lot of heat from the ocean...perhaps accounting for the rebound of ice coverage in 2013.  I would not expect a similar sort of rebound this time around in 2020.  Quite the opposite, in fact.  Next year will have even more melting momentum.  I anticipate the Bering and Chukchi seas will be especially fragile and prone to melting unprecedentedly early.  I question how far south the ice will even get in the Bering Sea this winter...

+1

8
Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: September 08, 2019, 04:45:47 PM »

None of the Tesla Automotive products can be converted from a cylinder battery. If this is truly a technological breakthrough, it will leave all Tesla vehicles worth less than the cost of disposal.

This doesn't make sense to me at all.  Individual cells can be cylindrical, prismaic, or pouch in design.  There are many, many cells in a battery case.  I can't see how the shape of individual cells precludes any existing battery case dimensions or control specifications.

9
The rest / Re: Unsorted
« on: September 07, 2019, 11:03:59 AM »


Deep Thought: ... the answer to the life, the universe, and everything is ...

(-80538738812075974)^3 + 80435758145817515^3 + 12602123297335631^3 = 42


Oh, dear.  Now the earth's purpose is complete, and will be promptly scrapped.  The dolphins will evacuate, the mice will exit into pan-dimensional hyperspace, and the Vogon fleet is at our doorstep.

So much for my hopes of converting to BEV an old Ford Prefect.

10
The rest / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: September 06, 2019, 09:50:33 PM »
How would you know he's a rapist ? You hope he's one.

What ignoring E. Jean Carroll's rape allegation does to all of us

https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/27/opinions/donald-trump-jean-carroll-rape-allegation-chemaly/index.html

11
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: September 06, 2019, 06:08:50 PM »
From Reddit. I find it to be very accurate.

 
Quote
. . . I think the GOP strategists that were thinking long term would have liked to have weened the party off it's racism, and courted minority voters. I think that's what Jeb or Rubio would have tried to do. The problem was they've been feeding their base racism methadone to keep them hooked for so long, that when Trump came along with his black tar heroin racism, their base ran off with him and is never going back.

Link >> https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/d0eb6c/republicans_to_scrap_primaries_and_caucuses_as/ez92n4w/
I agree that the passages are accurate and insightful.  There is an additional dynamic going on, though.  I think the behavior of GOP legislators is entirely rational for those seeking to retain power at any cost.

My sense is that ever since the disastrous reign of Bush Jr., moderate Republican voters have been leaving the party.  The residual "base" that vote in primaries is thus steadily more regressive, more reactionary, with rabid segments wielding a greater proportion of primary votes.

The biggest fear of the incumbent legislators is losing in a primary, not losing in general elections.  To fend off primary challengers, they *have* to cater to this crowd.  Catering to this crowd, though, does lower their chance of winning in general elections, so they have to do whatever it takes to suppress Democratic votes   

The countering strategy has to include efforts to get more voters to the polls in general elections.  If this succeeds, the problem of Repube extremism will mostly take care of itself.  Just the fear of losing in general elections will moderate the policy stances of the Repube legislators.

I'm skeptical that Repube legislators have actually become more regressive in their personal beliefs.  I think the awful policy shifts we've seen have been are more about seeking retention of power than any ideology.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 06, 2019, 04:26:31 PM »

I can't really visualize this. If gravity could move the ice down the slope, it would simply even out the water bulge as well.
I actually started writing that down as a joke, but then started wondering if there could be some truth to this. But mainly, I was joking, because the wind would of course have a much bigger impact on the ice than gravity.

Briefly, both the water and ice respond to coriolis effects in their motion.  Ice moves roughly 30 degrees to the right when pushed by wind in the arctic.  Water acts similarly.  Thus, cyclohic winds cause dispersion and water upwelling (e.g., tidal surges in hurricanes).  High pressure systems cause compaction and surface water downwelling.  High pressure systems are broader, with more modest winds, so the effects are less obvious, but still at play.
Apologies for the off-topic addition.  Back to melting season....

13
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 05, 2019, 06:05:12 PM »
is located 41 nautical miles south east of Charleston, and looks to be in Dorian's eye at the moment:

Great find!  Thanks Jim.  Also of note, a spun-off tornado near Myrtle Beach, SC:


Video clip of this beast at:
VIDEO: Tornado spotted in North Myrtle Beach; warnings issued throughout morning
https://www.wmbfnews.com/2019/09/05/video-tornado-spotted-north-myrtle-beach/

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: September 05, 2019, 05:47:59 PM »


And I mostly agree with you, except (as could be expected)  for where you say "... and the flattening of the graph of SIE at minimum over the past decade ...". I don't think that there is a flattening, but a steady (if highly variable) decline.

And this presumption actually changes everything. If we presume that the ice is flatlining around 4M then what you are saying is quite reasonable.

But if we assume a steady decline, as per the trendline in this image of -0.811 MKm2 per decade then we should be seeing values hovering betwen 3 and 4 in the 20's and 2 and 3 in the 40's.



But these values to me indicate an increasingly unstable ice pack. If we had half the extent we have now, I think it would more or less automatically be blown all over the place and melt out more or less constantly.

So my attempt at an answer: In the 20's a combination of extremes may give us our first BOE. In the 30's a BOE will start to happen regularly, in the 40's it will be more or less an annual event.

I would tend to agree that a simple linear trend line makes most sense for projections.  Mostly based on Occam's Razor.  A linear trend line includes the smallest number of variables--just one point and a slope define it.  Any curved projection suffers the objection "entities should not be multiplied without necessity."

In particular, polynomial curves to fit the data are almost certainly a poor alternative choice.  Given enough terms, curves can be created to nicely fit any data set.  But in all relevant polynomials, the extreme left and right ends curve to nonsense.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The caa-greenland mega crack
« on: September 03, 2019, 03:38:01 PM »
Blumenkraft,

Every year in the freezing season, the volume of the Arctic sea surface expands by roughly 10 percent (due to the fact that density of sea ice is lover than that of sea water). If everything (including air pressure and sea level) remains constant, something will have to give in. . . .

I don't think that's how the physics works.  Certainly Nares and Fram surface currents are more robustly southward in winter than summer.  But not, I think, because sea water is freezing.  Sea ice displaces its *weight* and not its volume. 

Just as the water level in a glass of ice water doesn't change as the ice melts, neither does it change if ice forms in the glass.  Thus winter freezing of sea water into sea ice doesn't create any net change in forces of flow (all other changes being equal, which they never are in actuality).

I don't have an explanation for the observed seasonal flow patterns, but I'm pretty sure volume of ice formation isn't it.

16
Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: August 31, 2019, 09:18:55 PM »
Here's a model for how a community might survive civilization collapse:
 
The Pacifist Democracy That's Survived for Nearly Two Thousand Years

17
The rest / Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« on: August 29, 2019, 04:39:55 PM »
I thought this presentation was quite interesting, on the subject of past civilization collapse:

Eric Cline | 1177 BC: The Year Civilization Collapsed

18
The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: August 28, 2019, 06:03:36 PM »
The proposal of the Dolt in Office to buy Greenland might fit here. The price of the piece of real estate should be estimated though.  ...

Indeed.  Now we need to include a per-person value of the roughly 55,000 human inhabitants...
Ah, this might be the value of synthesizing a live germ line cell from elements, and the expense to grow them in maturity...

Indeed, Denmark's price for the sale of Greenland should include such uses of the inhabitants.  Trump would surely like to harvest all these bodies for maximum sale value.  One reference is relevant here:
This Is How Much Your Body Is Worth
https://www.sciencealert.com/this-is-how-much-your-body-is-worth

So $650,000 per harvested body times 55k inhabitants means that the human purchase component of a sale of Greenland would be roughly $36 billion.

This seems a "Modest Proposal" indeed.
https://almabooks.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/9780714549439.pdf


19
The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: August 25, 2019, 11:33:25 AM »
The proposal of the Dolt in Office to buy Greenland might fit here. The price of the piece of real estate should be estimated though.  ...

Indeed.  Now we need to include a per-person value of the roughly 55,000 human inhabitants...

20
I've tried to be a good poster.

And you have done a great job with it.

You always follow the demands on posting etiquette even if they are harshly worded or even outright insulting. That's a remarkable display of patience.

Still, you will never please everyone i guess. Just keep doing your thing man. :)

+1
To post is to invite criticism, this is the nature of an online forum.
Tom has shown openness to criticism, and real efforts to post in ways that are helpful. 
I appreciate Tom's work.

21
The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: August 24, 2019, 06:21:34 PM »


... FOX has become as much of a state propaganda outlet as RT is for Russia or PressTV is for Iran. There is a revolving door between the White House and the network: Hope Hicks went from the administration to the network, Bill Shine from the network to the White House. Sean Hannity, who speaks regularly with the president, initially vowed to simply “cover” him as a member of the press but then began actively campaigning for Trump. Jane Mayer’s exhaustive reporting in the New Yorker has showed that FOX and the White House have a symbiotic relationship, both collaborating to push a far right agenda. FOX has realized that Trump is lucrative, and Trump has realized that FOX will say anything he wants them to say.

Fox News (FNC) is actually a uniquely toxic business-political model in the world.  Anyone with critical reasoning skills knows that RT will advance Putin's agenda, PressTV the Ayatollah's, and so on.  But FNC doesn't get its operating budget from Trump.  Its revenue is from advertisers, just like traditional networks and cable outlets.  This means that the viewpoints it presents, a priori, ought to be comparably objective and professional.

22
I think this format of articles is perfect. Title, link, short quote.
thanks for all the updates Tom.

Indeed.  Tom has been quite receptive to constructive suggestions about posting.  He's making a solid contribution to the community here.

23
Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: August 22, 2019, 05:48:40 PM »
Not a lot of technical detail in this article, but this may well constitute a significant advance in Li-ion technology:

TeraWatt Technology solid-state battery prototype tests showing 432 kWh/kg
https://www.greencarcongress.com/2019/08/20190822-tera.html

For comparison, Wikipedia states typical Li-ion energy density as " 100–265 W·h/kg (0.36–0.875 MJ/kg) ."  So, roughly doubling the energy per kilogram, if it works in production, would be a major advance.

24
Policy and solutions / Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
« on: August 22, 2019, 03:46:45 PM »

The refinery is a misleading argument. We are talking about domestic drilling operations, which you can't operate elsewhere. Such a tax break should only be given (if at all) to companies actually choosing their manufacturing location.
Besides, oil&gas is not manufacturing, it's extraction.
Total sham, a pure tax gift to such companies.

While I agree with your post in general, this point should be clarified.  Oil refineries are, indeed, considered manufacturing.  Until just a few years ago, export of crude out of the US was prohibited.  The oil lobby changed that, and now the US exports crude to offshore refineries.  This raised costs for US consumers while reducing the US manufacturing base of employment.

It would be best to reinstate the crude export ban and forbid this particular manufacturing from tax breaks.  FF industry would cry foul, but they shouldn't get the tax break as long as their product causes harm to the environment that they're not otherwise having to pay for.  When they pay a fair carbon fee, then they can get this tax break.

25
Policy and solutions / Re: Space colonization
« on: August 22, 2019, 01:06:04 PM »
Nope. Colonization of the solar system is well within the realm of science. As proof, the ISS has been continuously occupied for decades. Space is a more inhospitable environment than mars and we can already inhabit it. The trick is that it has to be continuously resupplied.

In the same way a Mars colony would have to be continuously supplied for decades or centuries. That requires a prosperous Earth. Mars is not a life boat.

Surviving within the Earth's magnetic shielding makes survival possible on the ISS.  On the moon or Mars, people would have to live underground.  Mars soil is toxic, and the Moon has no atmosphere.  Mars doesn't have much atmosphere, either.

You're right that humans on Mars or the Moon would need regular resupply, and some urgent trips back for medical treatment.  These resupply missions would each be very expensive (hideously expensive in the case of Mars).  You're right that it might well take a century or two to be able to develop self-sustaining colonies.  Building a whole industrial civilization in those environments would take many trillions of dollars.  The earthly carbon footprint of each human in these places would probably be equivalent to a small town.  Ultimately, support from Earth will at some point falter, and the colonies will fail.

The only beings we should send should be AI-controlled autonomous robots.  They don't need air, food, water, or medical care.  Given the ravages of deep space on humans, they'd probably be more effective and versatile.  Give them a century to construct an industrial base and palatial living quarters, and then, maybe, we can send humans.

26
Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: August 19, 2019, 07:48:53 PM »
Really nice words. . .

The CEOs of nearly 200 companies just said shareholder value is no longer their main objective
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/19/the-ceos-of-nearly-two-hundred-companies-say-shareholder-value-is-no-longer-their-main-objective.html

"The Business Roundtable, a group of chief executive officers from major U.S. corporations, issued a statement Monday with a new definition of the “purpose of a corporation.”

The reimagined idea of a corporation drops the age-old notion that corporations function first and foremost to serve their shareholders and maximize profits. Rather, investing in employees, delivering value to customers, dealing ethically with suppliers and supporting outside communities are now at the forefront of American business goals, according to the statement. .."
_____________________________________

... but I'll believe it when we can see concrete changes.

27
Consequences / Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« on: August 18, 2019, 09:59:27 PM »
A new fungal pathogen now marching slowly around the world might (or might not) directly be a consequence of global warming.   But almost surely this process is facilitated by global trade, something that helps drive warming.

In this case, we may lose the common banana:

Our Favorite Banana May Be Doomed; Can New Varieties Replace It?


"...There's a deadly fungus that attacks banana plants. In the past century, an earlier version of this fungus wiped out commercial plantings of a banana variety called Gros Michel that once dominated the global banana trade.

Now history may be repeating itself. A new version of the fungus, called Tropical Race 4, is killing off the Cavendish variety.

Tropical Race 4 has marched across China and Southeast Asia, laying waste to banana plantations. It's killing bananas in Australia, and cases have been reported in southern Africa...."

Well, at least the extinction might result in less tropical foods being flown to northern cities.


28
The forum / Re: ASIF Statistics
« on: August 18, 2019, 09:33:29 PM »
Someone must have mentioned the forum somewhere?

Possibly a Reddit posting, about a month ago:
Arctic Sea Ice forum is getting interesting...
https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/c2xzn6/arctic_sea_ice_forum_is_getting_interesting/

29
Policy and solutions / Re: Becoming Vegan.
« on: August 18, 2019, 08:30:14 PM »
CBD bacon?

Cannabis-infused pork jerky strikes me as a potential innovative market.  Shelf-stable, portable, and some consumers probably prefer a savory edible over a sweet one. 

Given the short local distance there between some pigs and some growers, it might be a relatively low-carbon activity.  Wood smoking releases CO2, but it's at least considered unimportant, as it's not using fossil fuels.

30
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: August 18, 2019, 07:54:09 PM »

The thing is that ALL of these scams were perceived as working, right up until they weren't.

Absolutely true, for those enterprises that were ultimately found to be scams.
However, absence of profit over a number of years is not automatically an indication of a scam going on.

An absence of profit over multiple years can be found in other companies that also pursued aggressive growth over short- or medium-term profit.  Amazon is the prime example, and an example that seems appropriate.

Both Amazon and Tesla have had a business model where the business activity showed greater potential profit and total demand than status-quo enterprises.  Amazon ultimately reached a size where economy of scale eventually started generating handsome profits.

Given that Tesla seems unequivocally to have a gross profit per vehicle that would be the envy of any other car maker, I see every reason to believe Tesla can accomplish the kind of long-term success that Amazon has had.


31
Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: August 17, 2019, 03:30:02 PM »
The people here speculating about Greta being manipulated are pathetic.

If you bothered to watch her interviews and have capacity to understand peoples motives then you would know she is doing this because she believes in what she is doing and rather than being manipulated she is influencing the people around her.

I call you all pathetic because this young girl is actually making a difference and your here wining that building the yacht that she's sailing on had some carbon emissions. Really, she made the best choice she could about how to travel to the US where she probably will make even more a of an impact and all you can do is whine about this.

This seems like the denialist bullshit that doesn't gets past Neven's moderation for very long.

+1  Greta's words, and they way they have inspired many to stand up, speak for themselves.

32
Glaciers / Re: Alaska Glaciers
« on: August 17, 2019, 01:37:26 AM »
Sawyer Glacier 2012 vs 2019 pictures:
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/shocking-images-show-how-much-alaskan-glacier-has-melted-in-just-five-years-113618212.html

Very disturbing images.
Even more disturbing is the chorus of denier comments below them.

33
The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: August 16, 2019, 05:46:06 PM »
I would think foraging but there is little evidence like fishbones or shells or even DNA traces.

I'd agree.  The exostoses in the ear canals likely reflect some kind of inflammation.  H sapiens typically gets otitis externa (said inflammation) from getting water trapped in the ear canal.  But it's a bit of a stretch to suggest this was the exact etiology for a different species.

Cats (who avoid swimming) get otitis externa from infection, such as mites or the fungal genus Malassezia.

Neanderthals are known to have had a much heavier bone structure than modern humans.  It's plausible that they were faster to form bony growths in areas of inflammation.  Given the absence of other evidence for an aquatic lifestyle, I'd think a propensity to acquire Malassezia infections in the ear canal might be a more likely explanation.  Possibly H sapiens introduced Malassezia to the Neanderthal population.

There are certainly examples of incursions of a population into new areas that led to devastating epidemics in indigenous peoples.

34
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: August 15, 2019, 08:00:12 PM »
Who quoted an article:
 
"The problem is that the only answer which can resolve this situation, without spending more on the grid than we do on wind farms, is to double our Nuclear power strategy and deliver it in half the time."

There certainly seems to be a substantial problem with the grid in the UK.  But I think this is the wrong solution.  Quite simply, overbuilding renewable sources can be done in far less time (and far lower cost) than building nuclear reactors.

Add some battery load-balancing, long distance transmission, and bit of demand management, and there should be a reliable grid adequate for the EV transition.

35
The forum / Re: Suggestions
« on: August 15, 2019, 07:46:50 PM »
I love it. Plus I learned what "frazil ice" actually means. (it's what I use for my Margaritas)

And I re-learned that "nilas" have nothing to do with nilla wafers.  ;-)

36
The rest / Re: Unsorted
« on: August 15, 2019, 05:30:12 PM »
Thank you for the eye-opener kassy. Very interesting and significant I think.

Indeed.  I tend to be mildly skeptical of purported health benefits of "organic" produce.  But this sounds persuasive, at least for apples.  So I tracked down the actual research article.

An Apple a Day: Which Bacteria Do We Eat With Organic and Conventional Apples?
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2019.01629/full

Strictly speaking, they only studied "the cultivar “Arlet” was selected. Both the organically and the conventionally produced apples were cultivated in Styria (Austria) under AMAG.A.P. Certification."

So Neven can personally benefit with confidence.  The rest of us can reasonably rely on the findings likely being generalizable to other cultivars.  I am still skeptical, however, that US "organic" designation is comparable to the Austrian definition.

37
Well, that is fine.
I used to paste the article on another site but got called out for copyright violations. If you want more science I will try to accommodate.

Rarely, if ever, will posting an abstract be an issue with a copyright holder.  Wide dissemination of abstracts is part of the business model of the for-profit publishers.

But to accommodate busy forum users, entire abstracts are usually overkill.  A couple of pertinent sentences usually will suffice.

38
Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: August 15, 2019, 04:36:43 PM »
They're not mutually exclusive.  There are too many rich humans consuming vastly too many resources per capita.  There is too large a global middle class that is increasing its consumption of almost all resources (egged on by the criminal global corporate hegemony) and there are too many impoverished people that need desperately to increase the amount of resources they have access to to improve their standards of living.  All the while, we need to be consuming far fewer resources. Too many people.

+1

39
Is Daily Climate clickbait? This is where I get the majority of my articles.

In an attempt at constructive criticism....
Most of the links you post seem to point to articles in the popular press.  For a science-based forum, such articles are commonly useless.

When you find an interesting article in the popular press, they're often over-simplifications of actual research papers.  Rather than supplying a link to the popular press, it would be more useful to dig up the actual article, read it, and *then* decide whether it merits posting to the forum.

Also, it would be helpful, when posting a link, to provide just a little more of a summary as to why the item may be of interest here.

I hope this is helpful.

40
Policy and solutions / Re: Low GHG Meat
« on: August 15, 2019, 02:06:26 AM »
It's seems to me that, rather than farming and eating insects as food, we should feed the insects to poultry and eat the chickens, ducks and turkeys.

That idea is just fowl.

41
The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: August 14, 2019, 08:43:58 PM »
So, where is everybody?

Probably in quite a few places.  But possibly the other intelligent species hadn't evolved with hands.  It's hard to develop an industrial civilization with only paws or tentacles or flippers.

42
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: August 13, 2019, 04:58:09 AM »
<snipped>
The official Tesla Model 3 introduction event for Taiwan. August 12th, 2019
via @TeslaOwnersTwn @hsumacher
$TSLA #Tesla #Model3 #Taiwan
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1160956732471779333
This may not play well with Tesla's newest landlord.

I think it's unlikely to be a problem.  Although political relations are strained, economic ties between Taiwan and the mainland are extensive:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross-Strait_relations#Economy

Beijing may see an advantage to having Shanghai-made Teslas sold in Taiwan.

43
Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: August 12, 2019, 03:39:12 PM »
SH, very easy (you could start a poll BTW):
1. We have overshot the carrying capacity of the planet significantly.

IF we all lived on the very minimum amount of resources per person, then maybe we might be able to fit 10 billion people on the planet and feed them in a sustainable way. I very much doubt the feeding part. But we certainly don't, and we certainly won't, so the caveat is irrelevant. IMHO.

+1

Imagine what today's world (and CO2 level, etc) would be like if H. Sapiens had kept its numbers down to, say, 1 billion instead of 7 .

44
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: August 12, 2019, 12:57:55 AM »
That link is broken. Try this: https://www.rt.com/news/466285-greta-thunberg-germany-left-extremists/ .

How do they know that person isn't just cold?  :D

These politicians and also the masses just don't get it, at all. It would take a hell of a lot of civil disobedience to make any real impact. Armed revolution more like. Won't happen...

The comments on the article at that RT page are quite discouraging.
Civil disobedience is essential to prompt needed change. 

45
Antarctica / Re: Majestic Antarctic Images
« on: August 10, 2019, 10:54:32 AM »
Sorry Sebastian, i don't know any detail about it. I found it on Reddit and as a location, only Antarctica was mentioned.

I believe the origin of the image is here:
https://yourshot.nationalgeographic.com/photos/886643/

Photograph by Sander Klaassen
Cathedral Iceberg   #antarctica #iceberg
This very amazing shaped iceberg was shot in Plenau Bay, Antarctica
Date Uploaded:   Jan 16, 2009
Copyright:   © Sander Klaassen

46
The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: August 08, 2019, 05:10:56 PM »


maybe not quite cooked?

https://www.google.com/search?q=tardigrades+temperature+survival&oq=tartigrades+temperature&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j0l3.12403j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
Quote
They can survive a wide range of temperatures and situations. Research has found that tardigrades can withstand environments as cold as minus 328 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 200 Celsius) or highs of more than 300 degrees F (148.9 C), according to Smithsonian magazine.

Dang, the little beasts are even tougher than I realized.  They just need to be kicked to lunar escape velocity by some meteorite, and next stop is Proxima Centauri!!  (in maybe a million years or so).

47


This strengthens previous projections for increased clear-air turbulence, as we can see an increase in one of the driving forces has happened already. This has serious implications for airlines, as passengers and crew would face a bigger risk of injury.
 

It will be interesting to note when passengers are issued helmets, and flight attendants are issued gear that makes them look like ice hockey players.

48
The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: August 08, 2019, 04:17:10 PM »
Well ...... That was unfortunate! 😝

A CRASHED ISRAELI LUNAR LANDER SPILLED TARDIGRADES ON THE MOON
 

Tardigraves, and a few other identified organisms, have a mind-boggling ability to survive dehydration, vacuum, radiation, and extreme cold.  Their existence is part of why I favor panspermia as an explanation for life on earth.

However, they weren't released into deep space, where they might eventually find their way to Proxima Centauri (or wherever), they were deposited on the moon.  "Daytime the temperature can reach 260 degrees Fahrenheit (127 degrees Celsius)."  Poor little water bears will be cooked.

49
The rest / Re: Leftism is a greater threat than climate change
« on: August 08, 2019, 04:07:04 PM »
eenie meanie minee mo .. catch a bigot by the toe .. if he squeals , let go real slow .. eenie meanie minee mo ho ho ho ! b.c.

The village idiot has spoken.

Please.  b.c. often contributes brief, pithy, sometimes humorous posts.  Like anyone's attempt at humor, some fall flat.  Occasionally very flat.

Any forum devolves into crap unless there is a culture of respect for the other individuals and a presumption of good will by the people.  Individual *assertions* can be utterly stupid, and identified as such by others, with due respect not to impugn the good will of the contributor. 

This approach used to be an unspoken ethic in academic realms, one I've come to appreciate and benefit from.  Perhaps the approach needs to be an explicit standard.

There's no need to insult another member of the community.

50
Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: August 07, 2019, 05:52:46 AM »

OK, so we are back to  --

99% of those people will die within a month of collapse.

Thanks!

Quite the opposite.  Civilization collapse would likely cause the vast majority to switch to a low calorie diet and greatly increase their activity level. No choice there. Meanwhile, insulin can be kept at room temperature for at least a month, with FDA-approved levels of potency remaining.   Beyond which, most Type II's need only oral medication, with stability of agents for many months.

You're right, though, about the less common Type I folks.  Without insulin, they're gonners, regardless of diet and exercise.

I think you are extremely naively optimistic.

The initial carnage of the first week or two post-collapse would probably result in the deaths of a very substantial portion of the population. No law, no order, no food for some -- in dense areas you would probably be seeing cannibalism by the third week.

It's hard to guess what collapse will look like.  But I think the example of Hurricane Maria on Puerto Rico may be a good case study.  Weeks of no grid electricity.  A functioning military and national guard for quite some time.  They're geared for operating for long periods without a grid or gas stations.  It was actually the rural areas that had little or no support.  Urban areas had better lifelines. 

In all, I expect a stuttering collapse--two steps backwards for each periodic step forward.

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