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Messages - Quantum

Pages: [1] 2
1
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: September 16, 2017, 12:46:27 PM »
I think I actually predicted 4.5 as the minimum in some of the sea ice prediction threads. Is there anyway to verify this?

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 29, 2017, 07:54:26 PM »
And...NSIDC extent went up yet again, for a rare (if not unprecedented) third consecutive day. It's now in 6th place, and flirting with falling into seventh (behind 2008):



While it's highly unlikely we've already reached the minimum, at this point a sub 4.5k minimum is nowhere near guaranteed. My projections now indicate a September 12 minimum of 4.6M, and a September average of 4.76M.

I'd be interested for some statistics about melt season ends. Which day would the minimum have to be achieved on to break some record?

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 26, 2017, 01:09:31 PM »
Extent for 8/24:  4893557 (drop of 49695; 5th lowest for this date).

2017 is now only 9437 km2 above the 2014 minimum.

Live version of the predict-o-matic now says 4.28 (range 4.06-4.49).  There is a 41% chance of 4th place and a 51% chance of 6th place.  Complete list of odds:

1st place:  0%
2nd place:  1%
3rd place:  2%
4th place: 41%
5th place:  5%
6th place:  51%
7th place:  2%
8th place or higher: 0%

Extent losses similar to those from 2007-2016 for the remaining days of the season would result in a 2017 minimum of 4.17 to 4.44


Sorry, could you explain to me why 5th place is so much less likely than 4th or 6th? That just seems so counterintuitive.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 freezing season
« on: August 26, 2017, 02:57:45 AM »
I would be gobsmacked if the melting season ended in August. Though I suppose stranger things have happened to the ice.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: August 21, 2017, 11:18:17 PM »
This is getting irritating now. I cannot see anything at all on MODIS because of the persistent cloud cover. I really like to use that to confirm exactly the date it opened.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: August 11, 2017, 04:31:54 PM »
Hey Quantum - Was it you my alter ego "Snow White" recently bumped into on Twitter?

Elucidating "her" cryptic message. Gotta link to your source? "She" knows where it came from, but probably most of your readers do not.
1km pngs are here: http://masie_web.apps.nsidc.org/pub/DATASETS/NOAA/G02186/png/1km/

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: August 10, 2017, 11:38:22 PM »
Still looks closed, although it can't be long now. My normal method is to trace a clear path on MODIS but I can't see cloud atm so I've made do with 1km MASIE.



8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 06, 2017, 05:05:24 PM »
It's colder than July :)
But it doesn't hurt to remember that melting temperature for FYI ranges between -1.5°C and -1.8°C
Isn't that the freezing temperature, not the melting temperature? Since the ice expels salt I would have thought it was much closer to 0C and that subzero temperatures would almost stop top melt entirely. Lateral and bottom melt of course will of course continue.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 04, 2017, 06:28:58 PM »
I've mentioned this before, but more and more I'm becoming convinced that a Baffin bay survival is possible this year. At the end of the melt season last year there were still a few icebergs in the Baffin bay but this year there is significantly more ice there. Although the Baffin is recognized as a peripheral region, survival is not unprecedented and was not uncommon in the eighties. It comes down to definitions more than anything else. How much ice does there have to be in the baffin bay for it to be described as a survival?

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 01, 2017, 09:48:27 PM »
Ryan Maue posted this image recently on twitter.


I know people have mixed feelings about this guy but his visualizations are 2nd to none. Anyway colder weather and unusual snowfall across the arctic is interesting in of itself even if it doesn't matter much in August.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: July 30, 2017, 09:38:19 PM »
But since Yamal is an icebreaker, does this really count as the northern sea route being open? To me it seems we still have a few days to wait before it can be described as open in the colloquial sense.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 23, 2017, 03:41:39 PM »
Finally. I must admit, despite JAXA not being that useful a metric for sea ice health, I found this run of centuries quite emotionally taxing! Despite the inevitable collapse of the arctic sea ice, I always come to this thread with foolish levels of optimism.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 22, 2017, 10:25:34 AM »
Do we actually know its raining or are we just going on GFS reanalysis? I would not trust the GFS to get the precipitation type right.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 19, 2017, 04:19:13 PM »
That surely has to be the last century break in this run.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 18, 2017, 09:51:31 AM »
Surprised people haven't commented on the upcoming PAC2017

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 17, 2017, 11:15:34 PM »
I think mentioned already, but Kara mush won't last long.
One of the many peripheral areas that are bolstering the extent a little. I think a lot of the peripheral will be gone real soon.
If the Pacific side does not hold up, things could get close.
Actually think some survival is possible in the Baffin bay. There were still icebergs in the Baffin in Late September last year, and the ice looks to be in better shape there this year and the weather has been quite cold recently. Baffin survival is not unprecedented either, used to happen semi regularly in the 80s and before the satellite record.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 08, 2017, 03:56:43 PM »
What do people think about the possibility of a Baffin Bay survival this year? Even post 2007 there have been a few years where ice has survived in peripheral seas. I believe even last year a small amount of ice survived in the Hudson bay. Baffin bay ice survival used to be fairly routine in the 80s.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 07, 2017, 02:45:27 AM »
Re GFS/climate reanalyser overcooking its arctic forecasts, the models rely on sparse and iffy data on the region. eg GFS sees SSTs up to 16.4C today at the Svalbard hotspot whereas ECWMF/Windy shows SSTs under 6C in the same place. That's a huge difference and makes me wonder what other dubious inputs GFS is fed
The NAM actually shows large parts of the beaufort still below freezing. Compared to the GFS there is around a 10C difference. I'd take these GFS forecasts of heavy rain with a degree of skeptism.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 01, 2017, 09:22:09 PM »
ECMWF 12z op run is quite similar to the GFS 12z op run both show similar characteristics at D10 which should be an oddity(!) Both models develops a HP-system covering most of the Arctic. The EURO is even having a varaint of the "Garlic Press" at D7-D10. At D5-7, an intensive July cyclone at about 987 hpa is forecasted to develop somewhere over the CAB. What are the deepest July cyclone btw?

As usual, this is far out in time but it surely should be an ominous and bad sign for the Arctic if the Atlantic is going to face some serious melt ponding too.
I mean to be fair its not great, but its not awful either.

One thing that has struck me about this melt season, despite the generally poor conditions is a distinctive lack of blowtorch conditions. Last year the 10C 850hpa isotherm regularly moved over the beaufort, this year I don't think it has happened at all yet. I wonder if that is the reason that we have seen a lack of century breaks on JAXA despite it still running at around 3rd lowest on record.   

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 01, 2017, 07:04:48 PM »
Apologies, can I ask how you managed to find this resource? I've been looking for ECMWF additional parameters for ages. Best I could come up with was the glitchy wundermap which worked about 20% of the time.

The page is
https://www.windy.com/

It was brought here the other day with a lot of nice examples:
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1834.msg118051.html#msg118051

Meteorological resources really have a serious issue with metadata. ECMWF additional parameters are like golddust, yet a simple google search would yield absolutely nothing. Do you know any other cool websites? I suppose the UKV is a little too much to ask for?

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 01, 2017, 05:23:45 PM »
I did some gif using windy.com for the next 5 days, which uses ECMWF for temperatures rather than the unreliable GFS. Sorry for the quality of the images, the converter I use is crappy. The scale of temperatures wouldn't fit, has to be consulted in windy.com directly. 
The advection of warm air affecting the surface is continuous through Bering Strait and ESS, also Beaufort and CAA. Note how warm the main NWP stays these days.
Temperatures do not go up much within the Arctic proper. I'd say that is expected over ice. These tongues of warmer air sufficiently far from the coast typically go up to 2 to 3 degrees, not more.
That does not mean that heat is not being transferred. It is, from turbulent mixing of warmer airmass from higher altitudes, and from radiation in general. Actually 3 degrees over the CAB, as closed pack as it is now, strikes me as pretty warm.
"Night" temperatures stay barely over zero across all the Pacific side, negative in other locations.
Apologies, can I ask how you managed to find this resource? I've been looking for ECMWF additional parameters for ages. Best I could come up with was the glitchy wundermap which worked about 20% of the time.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 13, 2017, 11:26:51 PM »
The ECM12Z seems better for ice retention than the 0Z which had the low move further south and undergo stronger cyclogenesis from presumably the horizontal temperature gradients. If the storm is weaker than projected and moves further west then it isn't such a bad situation for the arctic. A dipole is far from ideal but at least there isn't any obvious blowtorch weather.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 13, 2017, 04:51:35 PM »
Good view yesterday of Alaska looking into the beaufort. Still some snow cover on the extreme northern coast. Assuming it melts out this week that will still be a good week or two later than many recent years. Lakes and ponds on the land are likely to stay frozen for several days yet which can only be a good thing as it modifies air masses moving over them.


24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 12, 2017, 05:16:58 PM »
Neven isn't it soon time for you to do an article on Melting Momentum? Just from looking at the MODIS images it seems that we really don't have that much this year. It seems like 2017 will be a battle of competing elements; the effect of low melt ponding and unusually high snow cover vs fragile and broken ice. I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with either a surprisingly low or high September minimum this year.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 23, 2017, 09:06:29 PM »
I had a go at comparing the MODIS satellite images from this year to last year and highlighting the regions of melt (anywhere that has a distinctly blue tinge). Obviously this is completely subjective and shouldn't be taken too seriously but it does, I think, highlight some of the general regions of melting.


26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 22, 2017, 06:43:28 PM »
To EVERYONE here: Right now the GFS skill score is just complete GARBAGE!

THIS says more than words!


I agree that GFS isn't doing too well lately, but I'm not crazy about seeing Ryan Maue used as a source on this forum.

Edited: ...which I know is off-topic. I'd be interested in others' viewpoints on Ryan Maue and WeatherBELL. Perhaps someone can suggest the right forum for that?

Ryan Maue is fantastic at what he does, I always find his visualizations fascinating. He has also been gracious enough to help me (by all accounts a random nobody) with data processing.

Whether or not he hangs out in climate 'skeptic' circles, to me, is only relevant if we are talking about AGW. With regards to anomaly correlations of models, I'm inclined to take what he says at face value. In any case we all know the ECMWF is vastly superior to the GFS anyway.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 21, 2017, 11:13:28 PM »
Snowcover is above average in late may (>1SD)


When was the last time that happened? Maybe 2013? I'd expect snowcover anomalies to drop below average over the summer, still this must affect melting momentum I would have thought.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: May 21, 2017, 03:17:01 PM »
Forgive my ignorance but is there a correlation between low IJIS drops on one day and high drops on the next. I've noticed that you often get very low drops (or even gains) that proceed very high ones (including centuries). Is there something to this or is it just confirmation bias?

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 10, 2017, 11:41:09 PM »
Plotted arctic wide temperature anomalies over the next 7 days from Climate Reanalyser as according to the GFS.

Incredibly warm conditions followed by a rather rapid decrease in average temperature, but still much above average.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: August 13, 2016, 08:31:03 PM »
Would it be possible with these kind of temperatures for new ice to form in the north pole area in the next week or so? Genuinely don't know the answer to this. By extension when is the earliest new ice is possible to see? Can it happen before September?

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: August 13, 2016, 08:27:26 PM »
On Wednesday coupled with a 1023 hpa high over Beaufort. That'd be something.

That high paired with the low should cause some serious compaction along the CAA. My guess is the Northwest route may not open this year.

Isn't the southern part of the NW route was already open? It was pretty close to being clear of ice by the 1st of August.
Yes, but the northern part of the route is still closed. I added a summary of the routes and the last 4 years in the NW passage thread.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: August 12, 2016, 02:24:09 PM »
Really stupid question but why exactly does LP cause divergence and expansion? Intuitively one would expect the opposite since winds converge in a LP system and diverge in an anticyclone.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: August 11, 2016, 02:14:36 PM »
Does anyone think that top melt could end quite early this year? The low, for the problems it will likely cause for the ice, is bringing unusually cold temperatures and widespread snowfall:

I'd expect during these conditions shallow melt ponds would freeze over and the final part of the melt season is almost entirely dominated by bottom melt.

I posted exactly that on the blog.

Early September top melt halt, third week before the bottom melt starts to become overcome by the temp drop.

That's if it follows 2006 to the bitter end.  Of course the upcoming storm could be a game changer but I see it as a post 2007 event driven by cyclical processes.  Prior to 2007 there simply wasn't enough open water to drive it and even if such a storm did occur, the ice was strong enough to resist it.

It will be interesting to see if it gets into top 3 territory.  My guess back in May was around 3-4.  Likely to be both passages open though.  If only for a little while.
Touch and go whether the northern route opens in my opinion.

What effect do you think the snowfall would have? I'd have thought that would be the best possible way of cooling down the sea at this time of year. Could the melt season itself end a few days, if not a week, early? Perhaps 5th-10th September?

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: August 11, 2016, 12:07:36 PM »
Does anyone think that top melt could end quite early this year? The low, for the problems it will likely cause for the ice, is bringing unusually cold temperatures and widespread snowfall:


I'd expect during these conditions shallow melt ponds would freeze over and the final part of the melt season is almost entirely dominated by bottom melt.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: August 11, 2016, 01:57:41 AM »
Adding 2016 to the post I did. Again its not perfect but I'm using the same methods I used for the other years to keep consistency. I'm saying the southern part of the NW route opened on the 9th August (see attachment).

Just for reference, the dates that the NW passage (southern and northern routes) and the northern route open for the last few years. I always think this is an interesting bit of information.

Reference for the NW passage routes above. Note in some cases the routes may close again, these are the approx dates they first opened.

2012
Southern NW route: August 9th
Middle NW route: July 31st
Northern NW route: August 27th
Northern route: August 4th

2013
Southern NW route: August 22nd
Middle NW route: Does not open
Northern NW route: Does not open
Northern route: August 29th

2014
Southern NW route: August 30th
Middle NW route: Questionably around September 14th
Northern NW route: Does not open
Northern route: August 7th

2015
Southern NW route: August 13th (taking a ridiculous maze like path around the ice though)
Middle NW route: September 8th
Northern NW route: September 8th
Northern route: July 31st

2016
Southern NW route: August 9th
Middle NW route: -
Northern NW route: -
Northern route: -

So it opened on the same day as 2012 (although in 2012 the middle route had also opened remarkably by the 31st July), 4 days earlier than in 2015 and several weeks in advance of the other years. Its worth noting however at this point 3/4 of the examined routes in 2012 were open compared to just 1/4 so far in 2016, 2015, 2014 with only 2013 having all routes still closed at this point.

So in so far as the NW passage and N route in general goes; definitely less easy than 2012; definitely easier than 2013 and perhaps not yet clearly distinguishable from the other post '12 years. 

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: August 08, 2016, 02:30:43 AM »
My prediction of what the minimum will look like. Surprisingly if you take the region where the largely high concentration ice ends and draw an outline; it looks alot like the minimum. Certainly when you do hind-casts and draw outlines in this way from previous August 6ths its reasonably accurate which is perhaps surprising given the ice obviously drifts about.


37
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: August 08, 2016, 01:44:45 AM »
I'll copy in the post with all the other years when 2016 opens. For the sake of consistency I'm using the same methodology I used with all the other years. As of the 7th August the southern NW route is still not open.

In particular there is still a small amount of rubble in the Peel sound. Larson sound also has alot of ice still in it although there may be a route through it; its not always easy to tell with the cloud. It was unambiguously completely closed on the 3rd though - the last time we had completely clear skies.




38
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: July 31, 2016, 07:00:31 PM »
Per the latest (July 30) uni-bremen AMSR2 Sea Ice Map there is only a small blockage between Prince of Wales Island and King Williams Island preventing us from declaring the NW passage 'free'.
It could even already be open; there is just too much cloud to tell. Itl be open within days though certainly.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 25, 2016, 01:32:49 AM »
Just for reference, the dates that the NW passage (southern and northern routes) and the northern route open for the last few years. I always think this is an interesting bit of information.

Reference for the NW passage routes above. Note in some cases the routes may close again, these are the approx dates they first opened.

2012
Southern NW route: August 9th
Middle NW route: July 31st
Northern NW route: August 27th
Northern route: August 4th

2013
Southern NW route: August 22nd
Middle NW route: Does not open
Northern NW route: Does not open
Northern route: August 29th

2014
Southern NW route: August 30th
Middle NW route: Questionably around September 14th
Northern NW route: Does not open
Northern route: August 7th

2015
Southern NW route: August 13th (taking a ridiculous maze like path around the ice though)
Middle NW route: September 8th
Northern NW route: September 8th
Northern route: July 31st

Very nice, Quantum! Where did you get it from, if I may ask?
I went through all the AMSR2 maps and then used the world view satellite data to narrow it down when cloud wasn't covering the area. Its the best approximation I can do, so the dates may not be perfect.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 24, 2016, 07:04:58 PM »
But that perspective changed after the addition of today's data:
Real or one of those random upticks you get from time to time?

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 24, 2016, 06:54:05 PM »
Just for reference, the dates that the NW passage (southern and northern routes) and the northern route open for the last few years. I always think this is an interesting bit of information.

Reference for the NW passage routes above. Note in some cases the routes may close again, these are the approx dates they first opened.

2012
Southern NW route: August 9th
Middle NW route: July 31st
Northern NW route: August 27th
Northern route: August 4th

2013
Southern NW route: August 22nd
Middle NW route: Does not open
Northern NW route: Does not open
Northern route: August 29th

2014
Southern NW route: August 30th
Middle NW route: Questionably around September 14th
Northern NW route: Does not open
Northern route: August 7th

2015
Southern NW route: August 13th (taking a ridiculous maze like path around the ice though)
Middle NW route: September 8th
Northern NW route: September 8th
Northern route: July 31st

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 22, 2016, 02:41:40 PM »
Its quite amazing that in late june the ice looked like it was going to pull away from the north American coast. Yet here we are on the 22nd of July and there are still some ice flows on the coast near barrow. Truly astounding and something I don't think any of us would have predicted.

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 21, 2016, 05:50:17 PM »
The current DMI 80ºN suggests high latitude cooling of late - not good for supporting the continuation of the unprecedented early CAB ice loss.

The temperature will also drop when energy goes into melting ice... which it currently appears to do.
I was wondering if this might be the case.  If 'all the temperature decrease' is causing 'all the CAB ice loss' (extreme generalization, yes, but this is only a conjectural model), then there is only so much more energy in the air to cause more ice loss (without more energy input).  If the skies were sunny, that energy source would be obvious.
Personally I wouldn't read too much into DMI 2m temp charts at this time of year. 925hpa temperatures are far more useful

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 20, 2016, 01:38:55 PM »
rapid refreezes are definitely bad for the ice/improve the chances of a bigger melt the following year. no 'maybe' about it
That makes sense, I would have thought a stormy October is optimal because it breaks up young ice and increases the overall mass of ice that can be created. Since ice is such a good insulator it thickens very quickly at first but then painfully slowly above about 1m.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 20, 2016, 01:34:18 PM »
It will be interesting to see what the high pressure does to the weak-looking ice in the northern Chukchi, ESS and Laptev:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recmnh241.gif



There is already lots of surface melt going on, and presumably quite a bit of bottom melt, so I think we'll see reasonably big losses on the Pacific/Siberian side over the next week.
I remember lurking in here last year and people were saying that HP is good in August because (and please forgive any poor understanding) heat is released from open water and solar isolation becomes too low to be a significant factor. Would someone care to comment about HP at this stage (I know we still have at that point several days to go before August arrives)?

Still even with a more ' mid summer' type understanding of beneficial and detrimental synoptics this is a comparatively weak and cold ridge and is a transient feature according to the ECM. To me it looks like the synoptics remain good, if not excellent for ice retention.

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: July 20, 2016, 01:27:14 PM »
Think they have picked a bad year for it.

They're leaving Murmansk tomorrow:

http://polarocean.co.uk/leave-tomorrow-sail-safely-across-one-sea-time/

All of the Ice charts from Russia Canada and the USA show we can get around across the Barents Sea across the Kara sea and then we hit the ice. In 10 days time will it have retreated enough. Could we get lucky and get a Southerly wind for two days that would shift the ice off shore ? Unknowns.

It is an interesting game of chess. If we leave until our path is free of ice will we have enough time to get through the North west pass before it refreezes and get down the coast of Greenland and across the North Atlantic before the Winter storms chase us home

So one step at a time. Leave and sail safely across one sea at a time.

The Kara is fairly clear, but the going looks tough in the Laptev:
And even the ESS is probably not navigable at this stage; in terms of post 2000, let alone post 2007/2012 years this is unusual. Historically this route only opened rarely, I do not think it is inconceivable that the route fails to open at all this year or opens too late for the voyage. 

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: July 19, 2016, 01:04:13 PM »
An AMSR2 animation of the NSR over the last couple of months:



David Hempleman-Adams and 14 year old Ben Edwards are amongst the crew of Northabout, currently waiting in Murmansk for the Vilkitsky Strait to clear so they can start their Polar Ocean Challenge in earnest. Their voyage started in Bristol, UK a month ago and the plan is to circumnavigate the North Pole in a single season via the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage.

I think they'll need to wait a while longer before setting off on the next leg of their voyage though:

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/754964724404609024

Apparently they're going to be on the ITV news at 18:30 British Summer Time this evening!
Think they have picked a bad year for it, perhaps the only year in a decade where the northern route fails to open. Its been unusually cold in the laptev all summer and despite a brief period of heat this week the below average temperatures look to continue. I suspect even if it does open, it will be too late to get round.

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 18, 2016, 04:01:53 PM »
In terms of the ice in the Laptev or even the ESS it seems to compare suprisingly well. The notable areas of deficit are the beaufort and the barents and perhaps to a lesser degree the CAA. So if the siberian stuff melts out quickly we could see alot of ice lost very quickly. However if the laptev and ESS remain above the recent average and the Beaufort loss stalls due to cooler and cloudier weather then we could loose further ground to 2012.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 18, 2016, 03:22:04 PM »
Attached are the Ice concentrations for 24 July  2012 (earliest date available), 17 July 2015 and 17 July 2016.

To me the ice looks a lot more like 2012 than 2015.
Honestly looks far more like 2015 to me.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: July 17, 2016, 04:14:33 PM »
It depends what you mean by "this" and by "open"
Lancaster Sound (bottom right in the animation) seems to have open water with some chunks of ice floating around (bergy water) now, Regent Inlet (bottom)is also fairly open now, Barrow strait (right)
has little ice now but can fill quickly if ice breaks further west and drifts in from there.
The canadian ice service forcast is here http://iceweb1.cis.ec.gc.ca/Prod/page3.xhtml
see Jim's link below
I think what people mean is the NW passage being open such that one could travel from the Atlantic to the Pacific ocean via the Canadian arctic without an ice breaker. At this stage this is not possible, and I would consider it highly unlikely to be possible before August.

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