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Messages - icefisher

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+1 Juan.  My range is 4.22+/- .18.  Probably 2nd but 3rd also possible.

My guess assumes a quiet august.  If we get a storm with pressure less than 965 and 2 meter or greater wave height, volume will approach a new low.  An Atlantic hurricane generating a wave fetch of 400km would do great damage to the fractured and unsecured CAB.   

dispersion late in august with ice ranging from 40-80 cm.  4.018 for minimum on Sept. 8.  will there be a min. volume poll?

4.56 volume unless Beaufort and CAA both fail.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2020)
« on: June 06, 2020, 11:04:28 PM »
Great bubble chart Aluminium.  Clear, simple and easy to understand.  Used extensively in business apps. 

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 27, 2019, 02:49:49 AM »
What about volume?  We need 500 well placed floats capable of measuring ice thickness.  A simplified system making just a few measurements per year around April 1 and Oct 1 should not cost much.  I envision a retractable centimeter marked cable in a waterproof housing operating with a spring tension and a top and bottom paddle hook for holding on as ice grows and shrinks.  Ice that goes completely away results in a zero measurement. 

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: August 27, 2019, 02:24:04 AM »
Newly published study indicates we need more ocean measurement tools.  My stupid question is, Where is the money to make this a reality?

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 21, 2019, 11:56:46 PM »
Volume is key to future ice health.  Expect continued year-over-year maximum volume losses unless a strong La Nina or major volcanic eruption occurs.  Without those interventions a 15-20% max volume loss compared to 2018 is possible by 2023.  Adding the effects of a major El Nino with lower maximum volumes after 2023 creates circumstances leading to a Low Volume Event and a potential BOE no later than 2030.  Another potential ice risk is a solar maximum.  When is the next solar maximum?  Is there a possibility that all of these risks will happen at the same time? ??? :-[

4.487 average so 3rd place just ahead of 2016.  Expecting 10-12 days small daily movements up and down around the minimum.

4.26-4.30, so fourth lowest.  Thinner ice spreads resulting in more 15% cells.  Still expecting a new low volume October 4 - 8.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: June 30, 2019, 12:04:05 AM »
Northern forests exhibiting similar conditions now compared to Pliocene.  Current models have included some of these feed backs but not older models.   

Developers Corner / Re: The Community Earth System Model
« on: June 01, 2019, 10:46:01 PM »
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has released data sets used under CESM2-WACCM CMIP6 modelling at (   Sorry that the link is not activated.  Do not remember how it is done.  For those with modelling experience search URL results can be returned as XML or JSON.

With ice detached and spreading, a potential June dipole and late season storminess 4.26-4.3.  Expecting a new low volume for all the above reasons.

The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: November 23, 2018, 11:05:24 PM »
Changing light densities may indicate light being reflected by rings of ice crystals (similar to Saturn but much larger) prior to passage of a large gas giant 2-3 times the size of Jupiter.  Another possibility is a binary system with one of them being a young dim star.  Taking gravity, tilt, rotational speed, mass ... etc into account.  Lots and lots of possibilities.

Science / Re: Irresponsible research
« on: October 08, 2018, 02:10:09 AM »
Unfortunately, DARPA has probably already perfected the process and is just looking for a new generation of agriculture graduate students in need of funding. 
I wonder if "Bayer" the new owner of Monsanto and its roundup herbicides knows anything about this?

4.64 +/- .15.  A major typhoon entering from the Pacific side could lower my expectations but the odds on that happening are less than 10%.  We need many, many buoys measuring volume.

4.64 +- .15.  Dispersion due to thinner ice may increase SIE but result in less volume.  Time will tell.

Somewhere between 3.89 and 4.18.  The Atlantic side melting out before Fram flushing makes comparisons with prior years difficult.  Weather?

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic sea ice minimum early prediction
« on: May 13, 2018, 11:51:41 PM »
I'm guessing 4.17.  Another cold, cloudy summer?

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« on: April 01, 2018, 01:46:26 AM »
The central northern USA is getting another shot of cold from the polar vortex anchored over Hudson Bay.  Tomorrow with 6-8cm. of snow expected over central Missouri-Illinois it will be the first Easter snow since 1917.  The usual "Where's the warming" is likely to be heard.

Arctic sea ice / Re: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018
« on: April 01, 2018, 01:28:44 AM »
I chose 2017 as my first year with area less than 1MM.  After 2007 and 2012, 2017 seemed as likely as not.  Negative reinforcements may delay melting for a few more years or we may have another perfect melting season.  Either way we are already dealing with the effects of global warming.  The future looks unknowable.  Unlike Darth Vader we have already altered it further.

Consequences / Re: Decline in insect populations
« on: February 19, 2018, 03:46:11 AM »
SH, I live in the east suburbs of St. Louis.  The bee populations in my yard have vanished, Monarchs likewise.  Wasps, however are alive and well.  My wife and I loved to watch hummingbirds.  Several used to return year after year.  This past summer - no hummingbirds.  We are both alarmed.  Cardinal numbers are dwindling. Sparrows, wrens and nuthatches also putting in fewer and fewer appearances.  Starlings are numerous, as are blackbirds, crows, owls, hawks and geese.  Geese are just about everywhere and live year round.   

Still expecting stormy weather but without a 2012 GAC sized cyclone.  4.08-4.3 mostly from late season compaction.

Missing the major storm that my initial guess included.  Extent 4.665, but volume may reach an all time low with a little help from weaker cyclones on the Pacific side of the CAB.

Extent 4.0 - 4.1.  Volume lowest ever.  Nothing but slush and ice cubes as far as the eye can see.

Somewhere between 2012 and 2016.

Mid-USA just went through a 2nd, 100 year flood in 15 months.  While the 5-day future forecast gave people time to sandbag and prepare it was disheartening and depressing.  Clean up continues while questions, of how many more 100 yr., 500yr. or worse floods are coming, remain.  People far away from coasts are facing a stay or go decision now.  For them the rising tide has already come.     

Will future forecasts be able to take into account jet stream loops elongated and intensified beyond historical precedent?  Will the historical jet stream survive, morph into something unknown, or just disappear? 

My swag is based on a major mid august storm sweeping in from the Pacific with a 948 minimum millibar eye.  Without a major august storm the SIE September average should be 3.75 - 4.00. Multiple storms from both Pacific and Atlantic would be a disaster.  SIE below 2.5.

I chose 2030-2040 because extent will become thin enough to be blown about by every passing storm.  Reliability?  Expect volume to displace extent as the best indicator of ice health between 2025-2030.  When ships start plowing through 10 cm. of ice cube arctic water without ice breaker assistance the end is near.   

Arctic sea ice / Re: Poll: 2017 PIOMAS Maximum Monthly Figure
« on: March 05, 2017, 02:42:06 AM »
With quiet weather in the Arctic the next 2 weeks ice volume growth and extent should both increase.  If  storms stay out of the picture thru spring, melt volume from below slows down and a late maximum near 21MM seems likely. 

St. Louis Missouri USA February average temperature sets all time warmest record by more than 3 degrees Fahrenheit.   Hummingbirds have already returned -- two months early.  Hope they survive!  Tree pollens and mold spore counts are making life miserable in addition to the severe flu season this year.  Rising evapotranspiration rates coupled with low precipitation since January 1, 2017 are beginning to stress shallow rooted plants.  I get depressed thinking about the remainder of 2017.

Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: February 20, 2017, 02:21:28 AM »
The following attachment implicates Mesospheric interaction with tropospheric convection. Due to the complex interactions and my limited knowledge of the Mesosphere I am struggling to understand how they connect.  There does not seem to be a recurrence of a sudden shutdown of an MJO event since 2011.  Is this something we need to be concerned about?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The Slow Transition
« on: February 06, 2017, 03:45:36 AM »
This Nov 2016 paper from Dirk Notz and Julienne Stroeve equates 1000 additional gigatons of CO2 emissions with the total loss of September Arctic Sea Ice.  At the current annual rate of approximately 40 gigatons Arctic Sea Ice during late Summer will vanish by about 2040 just from CO2 alone.  With additional positive feedbacks -- sooner than later?

The rest / Re: 2017 Predictions
« on: December 24, 2016, 07:43:09 PM »
Sub 1MM area by Sept. 16 2017 with preconditions.  Polar vortex remains land based for at least 50 days of the Jan-Mar 2017 time frame; Fram export remains active for at least 60 days prior to the beginning of melt and the 80N temp equals or exceeds the long term average for at least 80% of summer.  In short, if we get another repeat of 2007 during 2017.  Otherwise, With three months remaining in the freeze season there is still time for the ice to recover even if ice volume lags behind area and extent.  The ultimate demise of Arctic Sea Ice is assured at this point.  Our individual and societal adaptability will be sorely tested during 2017 -- the first of many "final exams". 

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: August 22, 2016, 02:04:43 AM »
Shale drillers returning to the field are definitely taking a gamble.  They owe so much interest on Junk Bonds coming due they either create positive cash flow or go into bankruptcy and get sold for less than $.01 on the dollar. 

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 22, 2016, 01:54:07 AM »
I agree Werther.  Volume will indeed be very interesting.  Normally, volume continues to decline until late in September or early October but with all the venting from the fractured CAB, volume, extent and area, may all bottom out much earlier than anticipated.  My original dartboard volume guess of 4800 may turn out a little high.  More importantly is the distribution of volume by ice age.  Will the percentage of volume attributable to MYI go up or down compared to trend?

Expect extent daily minima between 4.14 - 4.19.  There may be a double minima separated by a few days of bouncing along the bottom.  Final number 4.159.  This number may change in the next few days depending on compaction.  Continuation of low pressure systems and dispersal will raise my estimate by 10k - 20k.  A mild compaction event is already factored into the existing estimate.

Raised extent up a little to reflect the continuing dispersal of floes and rubble.  Expect 4.316 within a range of 4.23 - 4.38.  The volume number, the most important, is difficult to assess without any good measurement.  A dart board guess - 4.8 at the October minima?

Moved up 1 bin from 4-4.25 to 4.25-4.5.  June weather = ice retention.  Added more ice in ESS and CAA at seasons end.  Range 4.19-4.31.  May go back down if dipole strengthens or lengthens.  Weather becomes more dominant as the melt season continues.  4.25 looks doable at this time.

The CAB should remain largely untouched unless a long-lasting dipole gets going.  A summer dipole longer than 21 days would be a major game changer.  Without a dipole the cold pole will ensure that the CAA and multiyear ice north of Ellesmere, Baffin and Greenland will remain until next year.  Adding to this, small pieces of multi-year ice in the ESS, Chukchi, Foxe Basin and most of the CAB I arrive at 4.09M - 4.14M extent.  Slightly above 2007 and in third place behind 2012 and 2007.  Weather will be the deciding factor.  Should be very interesting!

"System may forecast tornadoes weeks away; Test it next week" 
This is an article courtesy of the Associated Press that was picked up off the wire and printed in the local paper. 
"Victor Gensini, a meteorology professor at the College of DrPage outside Chicago, found a link between tornado activity in the United Sates and complicated atmospheric wave patterns that shift every 40 to 60 days.  Gensini's study is based on something he calls the Global Wind Oscillation, a collection of climate and weather wobbles, like the familiar El Nino, Madden Julian Oscillation and others.  It's more of a catch-all index that operates as "an atmospheric orchestra," Gensini said.
He focuses on the jet stream and the changes that occur at 33,000 feet.  At the moment it is changing from west to east to more roller coaster-like plunges north and south.  "The largest tornado outbreaks of the last 50 years have all occurred during a transitional phase similar to the one we are about to experience," Gensini said.  This pattern allowed Gensini to predict at least 22 tornados in the Southeastern United States between March 5 - 19 back on February 22.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 24, 2015, 03:19:40 AM »
ktonine:  Well said. I also remember the SS Manhattan and the ice conditions it faced.  Now just another casualty of GW.  I used to imagine what that must have sounded like as the ice shattered under the weight of the over built prow.  That prow was great as long as the Manhattan moved forward but the counter weight in the stern meant backing up was nigh on impossible.  Hence the need for someone to nibble away the ice behind them.

Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: August 22, 2015, 11:34:01 PM »
What Neven said goes for me too!! 

I moved down one bucket to 5-5.25 as July temp's have remained consistently warmer than I anticipated.  However, unless a big cyclone or major dipole develops, surface melt should slow down as air temperature cools.  Bottom melt is largely dependent on cyclonic mixing over the next week or two. 

I'm sticking with my initial guess of 5.3.  Unless a major cyclone has an impact in late July or early August  SIE should fall between 5.25 - 5.35.

I am guessing that area will be between 3.08-3.19.  It could go higher if we get cyclone spreading of fringe ice areas during September.  Volume 5000-5500?

Antarctica / Re: EAIS Contributions to SLR by 2100
« on: September 06, 2014, 11:31:23 PM »
ASLR,  There is another projection of Antarctic ice discharge recently published in ( titled "Projecting Antarctic ice discharge using response functions from SeaRISE ice-sheet models.  This is an open access paper.

 Abstract: The largest uncertainty in projections of future sea-level change results from the potentially changing dynamical ice discharge from Antarctica.  Basal ice-shelf melting induced by a warming ocean has been identified as a major cause for additional ice flow across the grounding line.  Here we attempt to estimate the oceanic response and the ice-sheet model response.  The uncertainty in the global mean temperature increase is obtained from historically constrained emulations with the MAGICC-6.0 (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse gas Induced Climate Change) model.  The oceanic forcing is derived from scaling of the subsurface with the atmospheric warming from 19 comprehensive climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-5) and two ocean models from the EU-project Ice2Sea.  The dynamic ice-sheet response is derived from linear response functions for basal ice-shelf melting for four different Antarctic drainage regions using experiments from the Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) intercomparison project with five different Antarctic ice-sheet models.  The resulting uncertainty range for the historic Antarctic contribution to global sea-level rise from 1992 to 2011 agrees with the observed contribution for this period if we use the three ice-sheet models with an explicit representation of ice-shelf dynamics and account for the time-delayed warming of the oceanic subsurface compared to the surface air temperature.  The median of the additional ice loss for the 21st century is computed to 0.07m (66% range: 0.02-0.14m; 90% range: 0.0-0.23m) of global sea-level equivalent for the low-emission RCP-2.6 and 0.15m (66% range: 0.07-0.28m; 90% range: 0.04-0.43m) for RCP-8.5.  All probability distributions are highly skewed towards high values.  The applied ice-sheet models are coarse resolution with limitations in the representation of grounding-line motion.  Within the constraints of the applied methods, the uncertainty induced from different ice-sheet models is smaller than that induced by the external forcing to the ice sheets.

Lack of a prominent dipole centered on Greenland is forcing the Sun to melt ice all by itself.  Area falls fastest when both Sun and wind combine forces to destroy ice.  I am going with 3.39 area at minimum.

The CAA and CAB should hold firm.  Without a return to negative AO, getting under 5M extent is going to require a big storm or a substantial ice transport into the Atlantic.  Neither seems likely to happen at this point.  A low of 4.9-5.1 seems likely.  I am going with 5.04.

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