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Messages - BornFromTheVoid

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 11, 2020, 11:53:30 AM »
The 850 hPa temperature is somewhere away from the ice. I'm not sure of the altitude, maybe someone with more knowledge than me can provide that.

But it is the temperature adjacent to the ice that is going to impact the ice, not the temperature 1,000 feet above sea level. For the benefit of the lurkers who are reading the thread, I think it's useful to kick the tires and questions some assumptions about the magnitude of the current events.

The heat coming into the Chukchi and ESS and the high winds pushing ice through Fram is quite significant and easily understandable and acceptable. No problem.

Maintaining heat over ice for a very long distance over ice and delivering it to the surface of much of the CAB where it can impact the ice in May is a completely differently animal. Skepticism of this is healthy from a scientific perspective.

Surface air temperatures over the ice are held close to a 0C maximum due to the latent heat of fusion of ice. This is quite apparent each year on the DMI 80N temperatures. For that reason, using something like the 850hPa temperature (or the less common, 925hPa value) is useful for assessing the relative heat mass over the ice. It's far from perfect, and temperature inversions, fog and such will add more complications, but much of the time in summer, 850hPa temperatures are more useful than surface temperatures.

2
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: October 15, 2019, 01:30:42 PM »
2nd warmest September on record according to the JMA
https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/sep_wld.html



8 warmest Septembers all in the last 8 years.

3
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: September 17, 2019, 04:30:09 PM »

4
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: July 26, 2019, 04:42:23 PM »

5
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: July 26, 2019, 09:53:48 AM »
The heat from Europe is now beginning to make its way north west towards Greenland, via Iceland. You can track the movement on the 850hPa anomalies in the animation below.



By the time it arrives, as mentioned by grixm, surface temps are widely above 0C across the ice sheet, with plenty of very warm spots around the coastal fringes.


6
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: July 25, 2019, 08:00:10 PM »
Some records for the day

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1154448787932233728

The #heatwave across Europe meant Germany (42.6 °C), the Netherlands (40.7 °C) and Belgium (40.6 °C) had their highest temperatures on record today.

Several sites including Paris, Edinburgh, Cambridge and Writtle also recorded their highest ever temperatures




7
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: July 25, 2019, 07:33:41 PM »
I think the Asian economies are heading towards recession (even if fake China numbers don't show it), and this may have to do with aerosol %s dropping? I can't think of another explanation for Paris beating the 1947 record by 5F.


The Met Office did an interesting live video today discussing the current heatwave, the dynamics and the role of climate change.



At about 16 mins in they mention that northern Africa has warmed about 2C over the last century, and this is where the air for the heatwave is originating, hence the ability to smash records.

8
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: July 25, 2019, 03:52:34 PM »
KNMI have confirmed 40C+ in the Netherlands.
https://twitter.com/KNMI/status/1154375695268810752

UK July record has been broken too
https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1154369428525637632

Plenty of time for more.

9
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: July 25, 2019, 11:20:32 AM »
Today is the big day for records in western Europe. Temperatures already above 30C across much of Belgium, Netherlands, south east England and mid 30s around Paris.

10
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: July 22, 2019, 10:51:52 AM »
Looks like a lot of monthly and all time records could fall across western Europe in the coming week.
In the UK, many models are predicting temperatures of about 37C in the south east on Wednesday and Thursday, with a few models creeping close to 40C.
This is quite extraordinary, considering the July record is 36.7C from 2015 and the all time record is 38.5C from August 2003.


11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 21, 2019, 10:42:10 AM »

In spite of what the weather models sometimes report, the actual temperatures in the northern CAA have been very warm over the past several days.   As discussed in previous posts, on July 14, 2019 the weather station at Alert, Nunavut hit 21C the warmest temperature ever measured north of 80 degrees Lat. 

A team of field researchers just wrapped up a 2 week trip on Axel Heiberg and reported widespread permafrost melting.  One of the researchers, professor Gordon Oz Osinski, said “in the 20 yrs since I started fieldwork in the Arctic I’ve never had such a long stretch of sun & temperatures in the teens [C].”  To find the thread, open Twitter and search #AxelHeiberg2019. 

Below is the link to the gif showing the permafrost melting.  It is definitely worth a click.  Pretty incredible sight when you consider that is happening at 79.8 degrees north latitude!

https://t.co/5AFY1BKTVr

I think the crack that has opened (for a few weeks now) north of the CAA will likely be persistent, and could be significant this year.

What you're seeing in the video is likely part of what's called a thaw slump. While the number of them has increased quite dramatically in the Arctic over the last few decades, they are also just a normal occurrence in many paraglacial landscapes and have occurred in the Arctic for millennia.
They happen when layers of thick buried ice get exposed to the air. This can be by erosion from waves, rivers, or from things like heavy rain, which can cause the surface permafrost to detach. When the ice melts back, the soil on top slides down, mixes with the melt water and forms large flowing mud lobes at their front.
Here's 2 examples from my own fieldwork in 2017

12
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: July 16, 2019, 11:08:37 AM »

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 10, 2019, 09:41:11 PM »
Applied the filter, these are all 5-day avg double century drops in NSIDC, so we'll see tomorrow

Perhaps I've got something wrong, but I'm not getting those results. Are you sure the fact extent was collected every 2 days generally between 1979 and 1987 isn't messing up your stats?

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 10, 2019, 05:15:43 PM »
Neven, the daily extent drops show two consecutive double-century drops. Is the latest one a record? (Graph from Alphabet Hotel above)

Consecutive double centuries happen every now and then. The most recent was July 27th to 29th last year, with with drops of 211k and 253k.
2014 had one too, between the 27th and 29th of June, with 228k and 275k

15
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: July 10, 2019, 12:15:51 PM »
Breaching a 'carbon threshold' could lead to mass extinction

Daniel Rothman, professor of geophysics and co-director of the Lorenz Center in MIT's Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, has found that when the rate at which carbon dioxide enters the oceans pushes past a certain threshold—whether as the result of a sudden burst or a slow, steady influx—the Earth may respond with a runaway cascade of chemical feedbacks, leading to extreme ocean acidification that dramatically amplifies the effects of the original trigger....

...What does this all have to do with our modern-day climate? Today's oceans are absorbing carbon about an order of magnitude faster than the worst case in the geologic record—the end-Permian extinction. But humans have only been pumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere for hundreds of years, versus the tens of thousands of years or more that it took for volcanic eruptions or other disturbances to trigger the great environmental disruptions of the past. Might the modern increase of carbon be too brief to excite a major disruption?

According to Rothman, today we are "at the precipice of excitation," and if it occurs, the resulting spike—as evidenced through ocean acidification, species die-offs, and more—is likely to be similar to past global catastrophes.

"Once we're over the threshold, how we got there may not matter," says Rothman, who is publishing his results this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. "Once you get over it, you're dealing with how the Earth works, and it goes on its own ride.


https://phys.org/news/2019-07-breaching-carbon-threshold-mass-extinction.html

The Paper itself

Characteristic disruptions of an excitable carbon cycle

The history of the carbon cycle is punctuated by enigmatic transient changes in the ocean’s store of carbon. Mass extinction is always accompanied by such a disruption, but most disruptions are relatively benign. The less calamitous group exhibits a characteristic rate of change whereas greater surges accompany mass extinctions. To better understand these observations, I formulate and analyze a mathematical model that suggests that disruptions are initiated by perturbation of a permanently stable steady state beyond a threshold. The ensuing excitation exhibits the characteristic surge of real disruptions. In this view, the magnitude and timescale of the disruption are properties of the carbon cycle itself rather than its perturbation. Surges associated with mass extinction, however, require additional inputs from external sources such as massive volcanism. Surges are excited when CO2 enters the oceans at a flux that exceeds a threshold. The threshold depends on the duration of the injection. For injections lasting a time ti≳10,000 y in the modern carbon cycle, the threshold flux is constant; for smaller ti, the threshold scales like ti−1. Consequently the unusually strong but geologically brief duration of modern anthropogenic oceanic CO2 uptake is roughly equivalent, in terms of its potential to excite a major disruption, to relatively weak but longer-lived perturbations associated with massive volcanism in the geologic past.

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/07/02/1905164116

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 09, 2019, 10:08:51 AM »
Judah Cohen appears to be anticipating a gradual shift towards a neutral or slightly negative AO for the remainder of the month (as opposed to more strongly negative in recent weeks), so this suggests average or slightly above average surface air pressures generally across the Arctic ocean.
However, he is also suggesting that the NAO will remain in its negative state, which means higher air pressure around Greenland.

Looking at the anomaly charts for geopotential height, which you can roughly take as a guide to surface pressure patterns, high pressure remains around Greenland and stretching back towards the Beaufort sea, with low pressure across the Eurasian side of the Arctic.

6-10 day


11-15 day


Rather than a general period of storminess, this suggests a switch to a more dipole like patterns, which a chances of some depressions around the ESS, Laptev and Eastern side of the central Arctic ocean.
While it might not bring the exceptional heat the last 2 months, the potential for compaction and export from such a fractured pack is very high, and leaves little reason to suggest the weather will save the ice.

17
Warmest June daily maximum temperature on record for the CET zone in England, at 30.6C, beating 30.3C from 1976. Records going back to 1878.

18
These summer storms do not typically dump that much total rain.  While rainfall rates may exceed an inch per hour, they seldom last very long.  Normally, these are good for the crops, as they provide water, while cooling the air in the late afternoon.  Areas that are too wet, do not need any more.

Intense rainfall tends to produce surface runoff rather than percolating into the soil. This is especially the case if the soil is already saturated. This isn't so good for crops, and can also wash away a lot of soil, along with nutrients and pollutants, into local streams and rivers.

19
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: June 25, 2019, 01:06:58 PM »
Chart shows worlds temperature changes:
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-48678196

I made a somewhat similar graphic for the Central England Temperature earlier this year. It goes from 1659, top to bottom, is colour coded based on ranking, has all months and annual temperature for the last column, and includes the max and min data from 1878 onward. If you zoom in, you can see the dates and actual temperature for each month, as well as a few notable years and periods are highlighted

https://amz.nwstatic.co.uk/monthly_2019_04/CET.png.6f4b9c3691b925fd5687ea0e85b41846.png

20
Some incredible record breaking temperatures going on here.

https://weather.com/news/weather/news/2019-03-20-march-record-warmth-alaska-canada-seattle

70s in Alaska, Northern Canada, Washington State Smash All-Time March Warm Records Before Winter Ends

  • Temperatures surged above 70 degrees in Alaska and northern Canada this week.
  • All-time March records were shattered in these northern latitudes.
  • Seattle nearly hit 80 degrees, their warmest day anytime from November through March.

Farther south, Tofino, British Columbia, also crushed a March record Tuesday, soaring to 24.5 degrees Celsius (about 76 degrees Fahrenheit)... It appeared this would have also set an April all-time high, there.

21
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: February 26, 2019, 05:48:12 PM »
Those February records didn't last too long. 21.2C today, earliest date for 70F.

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1100432569617797122

That's the old February recorded beaten by 1.5C now. Crazy that it feels like summer in February.

22
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: February 25, 2019, 02:06:18 PM »
It's official. First ever 20C+ recorded in the UK during a winter month.

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1100017946498420738

70F is the next target!

23
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: February 25, 2019, 01:32:21 PM »
Wales beat that 18.8C yesterday and climbed above 19C, which it is also doing again today.
A good chance that somewhere in the UK will record it's first ever 20C+ temperature in a winter month either today or in the next 2.

24
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: February 24, 2019, 02:52:03 PM »
18.8C today is the highest February temperature ever recorded in Wales
https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1099657944365436930

Possibly the warmest 24 hour minimum temperature record for the UK in February too
https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1099261593177739265

25
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: February 22, 2019, 08:42:14 PM »
More UK records, with 21 stations setting new high temperatures for February in the north.

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1099004144210399232

26
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: February 21, 2019, 06:12:51 PM »
Scotland broke it's February temperature record today with 18.3C, beating the 17.9C recorded in 1897.

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1098583379665133568

27
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: February 16, 2019, 01:03:57 PM »
JMA have January 2019 as the joint 2nd warmest on record (with 2017)



1st. 2016(+0.52°C),
2nd. 2019,2017(+0.39°C),
4th. 2015,2007,2002(+0.29°C)

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/jan_wld.html

28
Consequences / Re: 2019 ENSO
« on: February 14, 2019, 06:04:17 PM »
Synopsis: Weak El Niño conditions are present and are expected to continue through the Northern
Hemisphere spring 2019 (~55% chance).

https://twitter.com/NWSCPC/status/1096049726120697856

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

29
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: January 12, 2019, 12:01:37 PM »
So, is the 2018 data out? How did it finish?

4th warmest according to the JMA at least
https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/ann_wld.html


30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 16, 2018, 11:36:17 AM »
"A guy at NASA"
 Zharkova predicts, based on a decline in the strength of the suns magnetic field, that the cooling effect will last for up to 30 years, and suggests that the biggest problem, from a climate prespective, is that the growing season will shorten and harvest failures are almost inevitable. [that Gov. should begin to stockpile food reserves] The prime cause of this escapes me, the subject is glossed/passed over, iirc Zharkova says the effect is like opening the greenhouse window causing a rapid loss of heat to space.
 If the above is true, with the ocean being as warm as it is we may see huge energy gradients between the arctic and continental heartlands driving extreme weather. Of course the North Atlantic is cooler than we're used to, this will create a lower background temp. for any weather action in western Europe. With Labrador and Barents being so warm some unusual snowfalls may occur. Interesting times

Zharkova is a solar physicist with no expertise or publications on the link with solar activity and the Earths's climate, or anything else to do with climatology.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 24, 2017, 05:31:21 PM »
Update for the week to September 23rd

The current 5 day trailing average is on 4,814,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 4,839,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,589,000km2, a decrease from -1,625,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +683,000km2, an increase from +638,000km2 last week. We're currently 8th lowest on record, down from 7th lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +22.2k/day, compared to the long term average of +17.6k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +16.3k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +43.7k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +29.9k/day.



The extent change so far this September is the 20th least negative on record. To achieve the largest growth, an increase of at least 123.0k/day is required (more than 167.2k/day with single day values), while the largest loss requires a drop of at least 30.6k/day (drop of at least -47.7k/day with single day values) and an average change requires an increase of 40.8k/day (52.2k/day with single day values).



The 5 day average value of 4,635,000km2 from the 13th is likely to be the minimum for the year.
This is the 8th lowest on record.


32
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 17, 2017, 03:08:30 PM »
Update for the week to September 16th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 4,655,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 4,677,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,625,000km2, a decrease from -1,641,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +638,000km2, an increase from +616,000km2 last week. We're currently 7th lowest on record, the same as last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -1.8k/day, compared to the long term average of -4.3k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -5.0k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +17.6k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +16.3k/day.



The extent change so far this September is the 18th most negative on record. To achieve the largest growth, an increase of at least 72.9k/day is required (more than 83.2k/day with single day values), while the largest loss requires a drop of at least 4.0k/day (drop of at least -6.3k/day with single day values) and an average change requires an increase of 31.8k/day (35.3k/day with single day values).


33
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 17, 2017, 10:05:37 AM »
Update for the week to September 9th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 4,668,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 4,641,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,641,000km2, an increase from -1,620,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +616,000km2, an increase from +598,000km2 last week. We're currently 7th lowest on record, down from 6th lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -29.3k/day, compared to the long term average of -26.1k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -31.8k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -4.3k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -5.0k/day.



The extent change so far this September is the 19th most negative on record. To achieve the largest growth, an increase of at least 48.0k/day is required (more than 54.5k/day with single day values), while the largest loss requires a drop of at least 3.3k/day (drop of at least 2.2k/day with single day values) and an average change requires an increase of 20.6k/day (24.2k/day with single day values).


34
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 17, 2017, 10:03:26 AM »
Update for the week to September 2nd

The current 5 day trailing average is on 4,873,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 4,791,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,620,000km2, a decrease from -1,751,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +598,000km2, an increase from +421,000km2 last week. We're currently 6th lowest on record, down from 5th lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -21.1k/day, compared to the long term average of -37.8k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -46.3k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -26.1k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -31.8k/day.



The extent change so far this September is the 14th most negative on record. To achieve the largest growth, an increase of at least 28.7k/day is required (more than 34.2k/day with single day values), while the largest loss requires a drop of at least 9.8k/day (drop of at least 7.4k/day with single day values) and an average change requires an increase of 8.1k/day (11.9k/day with single day values).



The extent loss in August was the 16th largest on record while the average extent was the 4th smallest on record.




35
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 17, 2017, 10:00:34 AM »
Update for the week to August 26th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 5,020,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 4,913,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,751,000km2, a decrease from -1,779,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +421,000km2, an increase from +278,000km2 last week. We're currently 5th lowest on record, down from 4th lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -42.1k/day, compared to the long term average of -46.0k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -62.6k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -37.8k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -46.3k/day.



The extent loss so far this August is the 12th largest on record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 198.9k/day is required (more than 295.8k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires an increase of at least 107.7k/day (increase of at least 215.2k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires an increase of 1.1k/day (37.5k/day with single day values).


36
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 17, 2017, 09:58:35 AM »
Update for the week to August 19th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 5,315,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 5,284,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,779,000km2, a decrease from -1,790,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +278,000km2, an increase from +154,000km2 last week. We're currently 4th lowest on record, down from 3rd lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -53.1k/day, compared to the long term average of -54.8k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -70.9k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -46.0k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -62.6k/day.



The extent loss so far this August is the 9th largest on record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 107.5k/day is required (more than 125.9k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires an increase of at least 20.4k/day (increase of at least 24.6k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 24.1k/day (25.9k/day with single day values).


37
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 10, 2017, 08:58:25 PM »
(Hi all. Apologies for the break in updates. I'll try to get everything up to date during the week)

Update for the week to August 12th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 5,687,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 5,457,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,790,000km2, an increase from -1,679,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +229,000km2, an increase from +7,000km2 last week. We're currently 3rd lowest on record, the same as last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -83.1k/day, compared to the long term average of -67.1k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -104.1k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -54.8k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -70.9k/day.



The extent loss so far this August is the 6th largest on record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 87.5k/day is required (more than 85.3k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires a drop of less than 6.8k/day (increase of at least 6.1k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 34.8k/day (25.7k/day with single day values).


38
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Coastal Change
« on: August 27, 2017, 08:00:42 PM »
I can tell you it was mainly a silty clay, but very ice rich, so much so that the thermal imagining of the layers came up and almost entirely 0C.

The whole island had incredible features though. We only had half a day out there, so I was limited in what I could do. Here's an image from the opposite (western) edge of the island. The left is a slump feature, and all that exposed grey material is ice, and on the right are more large blocks.

Such an incredibly complex and rapidly changing landscape. Our Canadian collaborators had set up time 3 or 4 timelapse cameras in what they thought were safe areas just 2 weeks before these images were taken. That slump feature wasn't there at the time. They lost every camera.


39
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Coastal Change
« on: August 27, 2017, 07:00:30 PM »
Hey all. More updates to come in the blog soon. However, as I'm now back in the UK, I thought I'd mention that we went to an incredible site on the 2nd last day with collapsed blocks of permafrost about 50 or 60ft tall.



On top of that, that we had an incredible 4.5 hour boat ride from Tuktoyaktuk to Inuvik through the Mackenzie delta during sunset on the way home. Amazing views, and here is one of them.


40
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Coastal Change
« on: August 20, 2017, 03:49:18 PM »
Here's the AMA (Q&A) type thing we're doing on reddit today.

https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/6uviip/science_ama_series_were_a_group_of_researchers_in/

We won't be answering questions for another 10 hours though, so not the best timing for the Europeans!

41
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Coastal Change
« on: August 20, 2017, 06:52:26 AM »
Hey all. Just a few pics for an update, rather short of time.

This is an area called Peninsula point, to the west of Tuk. Incredible slump features with loads of exposed ice cliffs. You can literally just sit there and watch the landscape change around you. You have variable ice thickness with silt and clay sat atop it. As the ice melts, the soil slumps onto the ice, slides down into the saturated area forming a large muddy flow that extends into the ocean forming the fan shape seen in the photo below.


That's a 65L grey and lime green bag in the centre left, for a sense of scale!



Here's an area we'll be visiting on the 23rd (I think). These are permafrost blocks, where waves undercut the cliffs, extending inland until the coast collapses as a solid block. And yes, that is a person standing in the background!



More stuff to come soon, including helicopter footage and short timelapse footage of actively eroding cliffs. We're also doing an AMA later tomrrow/early morning of the 21st on reddit.com/r/science. So keep an eye out!

42
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Coastal Change
« on: August 11, 2017, 03:31:44 AM »
Cheers guys. I'll try keep the updates ticking along.
Neven, I will try put together a proper update for the blog, life out in Tuktoyaktuk as a researcher, maybe some profiles on the other researchers we're with and the work we are all doing. Here's a quick pic of the thermokarst  lakes out by Tuk on the flight over today.

43
Permafrost / Arctic Coastal Change
« on: August 10, 2017, 02:49:56 PM »
Hey everyone. I'm currently in the Arctic at the moment, specifically in Inuvik, NW, Canada. This afternoon I'll be leaving for Tuktoyaktuk and will spend the following 2 weeks studying coastal erosion processes at numerous sites all along the Tuktoyaktuk peninsula and out along the Mackenzie delta.

Unfortunately, a combination of haze and forest fire smoke made getting good photos from the flight in next to impossible. The air toward Yellowknife was better though.



I'll be in Tuk with a big team of other researchers, mostly Canadian, but others from all over too. Even the people you meet around are fascinating. For example, the two others sharing the house last night with myself and my supervisor - one is a cultural anthropologist that plans on living with some of the small local communities here and the other is studying methane release from lakes. Never a shortage of really cool people with fascinating projects going on, which I'll definitely discuss more over the coming weeks.

Anyway, busy day ahead loading and prepping for flights and boat trips, so I gotta go now. But I'll keep the updates coming - internet connection dependent of course.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 06, 2017, 07:18:01 PM »
Update for the week to August 5th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 6,268,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 6,146,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,679,000km2, an increase from -1,540,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +7,000km2, a decrease from +205,000km2 last week. We're currently 3rd lowest on record, up from 4th lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -101.3k/day, compared to the long term average of -81.5k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -73.0k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -67.1k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -104.1k/day.



The extent loss so far this August is the 3rd largest on record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 86.2k/day is required (more than 88.3k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires a drop of less than 27.3k/day (less than 24.3k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 47.8k/day (46.7k/day with single day values).



The extent loss in July was the 15th largest on record while the average extent was the 4th smallest on record.




45
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 30, 2017, 08:30:45 PM »
Update for the week to July 29th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 7,417,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 7,289,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,540,000km2, a decrease from -1,710,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +205,000km2, an increase from +134,000km2 last week. We're currently 4th lowest on record, down from 3rd lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -62.8k/day, compared to the long term average of -87.1k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -81.6k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -81.5k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -73.0k/day.



The extent loss so far this July is the 15th largest on record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 431.0k/day is required (more than -1,209.5k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires an increase of over 322.0k/day (over 1,303.3k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 5.7k/day (an increase of 208.0k/day with single day values).


46
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 23, 2017, 06:44:36 PM »
Update for the week to July 22nd

The current 5 day trailing average is on 7,417,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 7,289,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,710,000km2, an increase from -1,638,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +74,000km2, a decrease from +134,000km2 last week. We're currently 3rd lowest on record, up from 4th lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -99.6k/day, compared to the long term average of -89.3k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -90.9k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -87.1k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -81.6k/day.



The extent loss so far this July is the 7th largest on record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 144.7k/day is required (more than -167.6k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires an increase of over 22.7k/day (over 47.5k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 50.1k/day (46.2k/day with single day values).


47
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 23, 2017, 06:41:26 PM »
A double update today, to make up for missing out last weekend.

Update for the week to July 15th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 8,114,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 7,857,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,638,000km2, an increase from -1,498,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +134,000km2, an increase from +63,000km2 last week. We're currently 4th lowest on record, up from 5th lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -101.5k/day, compared to the long term average of -81.5k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -111.6k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -89.3k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -90.9k/day.



The extent loss so far this July is the 10th largest on record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 125.0k/day is required (more than -124.4k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires a drop of less than 30.8k/day (less than 16.8k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 71.8k/day (63.7k/day with single day values).


48
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 09, 2017, 05:06:19 PM »
Update for the week to July 7th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 8,824,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 8,681,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,498,000km2, an increase from -1,420,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +63,000km2, a decrease from -169,000km2 last week. We're currently 5th lowest on record, down from 4th lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -99.5k/day, compared to the long term average of -88.4k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -131.5k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -81.5k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -111.6k/day.



The extent loss so far this July is the 10th largest on record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 117.9k/day is required (more than -122.3k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires a drop of less than 52.3k/day (less than 50.5k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 80.8k/day (81.7k/day with single day values).


49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 02, 2017, 03:06:18 PM »
July 1st typically sees the largest extent drop of the year within the NSIDC extent series.
The average extent drop from 1979 to 2016 is 203k, with the last 10 years averaging a 261k drop and 2013 achieving the largest drop, at 349k.

This year saw a slightly below average drop, just 177k, making it the 15th smallest from 39 years.



50
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 02, 2017, 02:27:47 PM »
Update for the week to July 1st

The current 5 day trailing average is on 9,521,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 9,244,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,420,000km2, an increase from -1,213,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -160,000km2, a decrease from -169,000km2 last week. We're currently 4th lowest on record, the same as last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -98.9k/day, compared to the long term average of -69.4k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -100.2k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -88.4k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -131.5k/day.



The extent loss so far this July is the 4th largest on record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 113.6k/day is required (more than -111.8k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires a drop of less than 63.3k/day (less than 58.0k/day with single day values) and an average loss a drop of 85.2k/day (81.4k/day with single day values).



The extent loss in June was the 4th largest on record while the average extent was the 5th smallest on record.




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