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Messages - oren

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1
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: January 17, 2018, 10:11:11 AM »
Keeping 1.5decC alive requires belief in miracles.

2
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: January 16, 2018, 10:33:24 AM »
It’s probably covered up thread, but how long do folks here think before roving fleets of on demand autonomous vehicles reach critical mass so that owning ANY type of vehicle is no longer required for those of us that need to travel on roads?

I’d like to have an EV, but I’d also prefer to avoid the investment and instead hang on to my ICE car if autonomous vehicles are on the (reasonable) horizon.
I assume you mean on demand autonomous vehicles widely deployed across the country with rates far cheaper than current taxis, that make it a no-brainer to travel anywhere you need with a taxi.
IMHO you can buy an EV and get a good use out of it before this becomes a reality. First there's the technological hurdle still not overcome, then there is wide deployment, then there is the issue of rates that will take time to drop. I doubt the whole thing completes before 2025.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: January Poll: JAXA Maximum
« on: January 15, 2018, 06:05:22 PM »
I'm keeping my vote unchanged: 13.75 to 14 million km2.
Same.

4
Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: January 15, 2018, 08:54:55 AM »
Horrifying.

5
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: January 15, 2018, 08:33:10 AM »
rboyd, don't forget ICE cars will also start to depreciate more quickly. It won't stop the transition. But a creative destruction phase is certainly coming.

6
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Poll: Nares Strait closure in 2018
« on: January 14, 2018, 12:22:35 PM »
It's typically in February, so I went for that.
In looking for past closure dates (in Nares thread, the best place to search), I think a 3-day criterion is too short though. I would suggest a 7-day threashold.
Check this 2015 animation by Wipneus, where Kane closed around Jan 29th, opened almost a week later due to wind from the south, and finally closed around Feb 15th.
Something similar happened at the Lincoln entrance, it held for a few days and then broke apart.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,176.msg44954.html#msg44954

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: January 13, 2018, 04:26:06 PM »
Thank you A-Team, very interesting, especially the warm water departure and arrival timings.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: January 13, 2018, 02:56:09 PM »
With temps at +5.4C currently at Longyearbyen, Svalbard, buildup of any seaice at least at the western side of Svalbard, will have  hard time taking place!

www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/?sp

The risk for events like the slides taking place in februar 2017, are increasing by the hours. Pretty surreal this happening in the middle of  winter at those latitudes...
At first I read your post as referring to the temp anomaly, then I realized this is the actual temp. With heavy rainfall. Surreal indeed.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 13, 2018, 12:14:09 AM »
Would anyone be able to estimate the arctic sea ice extent on that graph which would represent an "ice free arctic"?  Looks like the lowest level was around 16, what number would represent a blue ocean event?

Thanks.
A blue ocean event in the Arctic would not be on that graph. It would happen in August/September, not in February, so it would be at a different level of global extent. Take typical Aug/Sep Antarctic extent, add 1mil for the usual Arctic "blue ocean" definition, and you'll get your answer.

10
Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: January 12, 2018, 11:59:35 PM »
Nuclear is simply too expensive.
And IMHO too risky to assume a functioning government and infrastructure sufficient to maintain these plants and deal with the radioactive waste in the next 100 years in the face of climate change, SLR, and potential collapse.

11
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: January 12, 2018, 11:51:38 PM »
Welcome jmshelton and thanks for your interesting post.

12
Consequences / Re: 2018 Droughts
« on: January 12, 2018, 11:49:10 PM »
In Israel there was talk for years of sending the brine to the Dead Sea via an artificial canal, helping to stabilize its deteriorating level, and even gaining some net energy via hydro thanks to its being 400m altitude below sea level. But this talk has not come to fruition yet.
OTOH, back to the thread's topic: the minister for agriculture recently arranged a mass prayer at the Western Wall in Jerusalem to break the multi-year drought. I'm not holding my breath for results.

13
Consequences / Re: 2018 Droughts
« on: January 12, 2018, 03:21:34 PM »
perhaps i simply lack insight but each of such news triggers the same thought:

a) they have wind to produce energy

b) they have plenty of sunshine to produce energy

c) they have plenty of ocean water to make drinkable by osmosis (energy consuming i know)

so why do such regions like CT or Andalucia or other regions with little water but being oceanside
and blessed with either wind, sun or both produce more drinking water from the ocean by through above mentioned method. it exists, it's done but by far not sufficiently to solve their shortages.

perhaps someone who is more savvy in that field of work/sciences can enlighten me so that i can either push more or forget the idea because of (no clue why)
Israel would have been deep in the same problem as Capetown by now had the country not built several desalination plants under a strategic program (a surprise in a country where most political thinking is very short term). Unfortunately this is not done with renewable energy but with mostly fossil-based electricity. Cost of home-use water has gone up considerably, but I guess it's better than having no water.
Note: Israel is also the world leader in using recycled water for agriculture.

Here's some info from 2015:
Desalination industry
In 1999, the Israeli government initiated a long-term seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination program. Israel Desalination Enterprises, or IDE Technologies, built SWRO plants in Ashkelon in 2005, Hadera in 2009, and Sorek in 2013. Built for the Israeli government, each plant produces clean water from the sea at low cost. Today, the country has a total of five large-scale SWRO plants, including the Palmachim plant (GES) and the Ashdod (Mekorot) plant (which is currently undergoing commissioning).

The Sorek plant, located about 10 miles south of Tel Aviv, is the largest and most advanced SWRO plant in the world. It has the capacity to product 627,000 m3 of water daily, making desalinated seawater a mainstay of the country’s water supply. The Sorek plant is the first desalination plant to use pressure vessels that are 16 in. in diameter rather than 8 in. This reduces costs by requiring less piping and other hardware; costs are also minimized through the use of highly efficient pumps.

It is estimated that half of the country’s water will be supplied by desalination by 2016.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: January 12, 2018, 01:40:08 PM »
A-Team's mp4 are not viewable on my browser except by downloading, this new one is viewable directly.

15
Consequences / Re: 2018 ENSO
« on: January 11, 2018, 02:22:04 PM »
Nice animation Sleepy.

16
Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« on: January 11, 2018, 01:30:08 PM »
Those percentages at the bottom of the table are shocking

17
Science / Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« on: January 09, 2018, 12:40:48 AM »
Thanks for clarifying Bernard. I am sadly in the +25 camp. Humanity is moving too slow to curb its carbon addiction, and feedbacks are kicking in.

18
The rest / Re: Arctic Café
« on: January 08, 2018, 08:54:01 AM »
So cute...

19
Science / Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« on: January 07, 2018, 11:48:28 PM »
The most interesting question I think is : when will this curve reach its inflection point? And even if I'm not that young, I wish I could see this happen in my lifetime.
You probably meant inflection point such that the curve starts falling, but I was reading inflection point and thinking when will it start accelerating upward due to feedback kicking in...

20
Science / Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« on: January 07, 2018, 07:45:54 PM »
So, Isn't it better to guess the 2018 annual average figure.
I agree this is the most interesting number to guess, as well as the most significant one physically.

21
So, how can we explain that the volume drop is decreasing, on August and September? Any negative feedback that you know, that could explain this behavior?
I'll offer three hypotheses, none of which are exclusive.

1) The drop is decreasing because there is an overall decrease in available ice.
2) The new distribution of ice is such that there is less vulnerable volume after the Solstice.
3) Ice preserving feedbacks (increased moisture/cloud cover, snowfall/increased albedo) decrease late season heat uptake.
Indeed, all three mechanisms. But I think 1+2 should be emphasized, the peripheral seas are becoming more seasonal, losing ice cover earlier and gaining it later. So ice that used to last until August-September is now gone in June-July. Now you have less ice available for melting, and even more importantly it's located in northern latitudes where volume loss is slower.

22
Another explanation was lots of snow one the ice, that helped protect it from the sun and prevented a new record.

23
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 06, 2018, 12:22:37 PM »
What if China, the US or some other country decided to ruin the manufacturing base of (insert your country here) by subsidizing their manufacturing, underselling your company's factories, and causing them to go bankrupt? 

(What's your attitude when it comes to monopolies?)
I hate monopolies but this is not the case. Solar panels manufacturing is hardly the US' industrial base, it's almost non-existent. We are not talking about steel, auto, cement, appliances, electronics, whatever. We are talking about products that whoever gets them becomes rich, and the main thing stopping people from deploying them in mass numbers is the price. And the jobs exist mostly in installation, rather than manufacturing. The major economic benefit is in having the product, not in having the industry. In such a case, having another country subsidize them is the best thing that could ever happen to my economy.

24
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 06, 2018, 12:17:04 AM »
I can't argue with the claim that the Chinese have been subsidizing the cost of solar panels sold to other countries. But I fail to see the logic of the tariffs. Solar panels are capital goods, something the US should be rolling out in great numbers, both to avoid further impact on the climate, but also because it's a great investment from an economic standpoint. If someone sold me such panels below cost, I would order more and more and install them like mad. If the US is so afraid that its few manufacturers of solar panels would find it impossible to compete, give the manufacturers money in some way (preferential contracts, research grants etc.) and be done with it, instead of sharply slowing down the roll-out of solar installations because of higher costs of imported panels.

25
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 05, 2018, 07:28:29 PM »
Well said Terry. The bad Chinese are selling these panels (that give us the ability to generate electricity for free) for too cheap. This must be stopped...

26
Policy and solutions / Re: Poll: Relative importance of countermeasures
« on: January 05, 2018, 04:46:11 PM »
"Reducing population growth" doesn't reduce population. Even if population declines a little, this doesn't help much and the emissions problem really is from bringing the poorest up to nearer western living standards. So this option isn't going to do a lot.
When taken in the context of a significant slowdown in births, reducing population growth in relatively developed countries saves a lot of energy and resources spent on construction of new housing, schools, roads, restaurants, shops etc., as the existing infrastructure is sufficient for the existing population. Replacement and improvement are still necessary, but new stock is sharply reduced.
All this is of academic interest as unfortunately this (a significant and quick slowdown in births from current rates) is not going to happen.
Of course, reducing emissions per capita, as well as reducing consumption per capita in developed countries, is quicker and more important.

Edit reason: Bob's question

27
Policy and solutions / Re: Poll: Relative importance of countermeasures
« on: January 04, 2018, 10:23:31 PM »
What's under discussion is not remotely enough, soon enough.

I haven't seen significant movement towards a timely and proportionate response and don't expect one. So the best option seems to be early societal collapse.
Fully agree. We are moving and doing good stuff, we need to keep doing it but it's too little too late. Hopefully some of the stuff survives past the collapse.

28
Policy and solutions / Re: Poll: Relative importance of countermeasures
« on: January 04, 2018, 02:06:34 PM »
1 is most important, 2 is second. 3 is mostly what will actually happen (in my pessimistic view). 4 is more of a hazard than a solution.

29
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: January 03, 2018, 01:35:37 PM »
If you want to win a knife fight you bring a knife or a gun...the truth is irrelevant.

JimD,

It is great to read one of your thought provoking posts again.
Indeed.

30
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: January 03, 2018, 09:51:29 AM »
A-Team, thank you for that wonderful Lincoln breakup animation. I remember that spectacular event vividly.

31
I am very far from convinced. As Steve said, white snow is already extremely white, so the solution fails the initial common sense test. It reminds me strongly of Solar Roadways, and I suspect with the same driving goal, a mixture of initial naivette and good salaries from grants and donations while it lasts.
I notice that their web site totally lacks details though it's very strong on presentation. No word anout albedo or any other hard numbers for current test sites or past  tests. No before-and-after photos though quite a few very nice general photos. They have a proprietary buoy on ice in Barrow, but zero details. Supposedly they are a non-profit so they could share lots of details if they chose to. Count me in the suspicious naysayers camp, at least for now.

32
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: January 02, 2018, 08:37:30 AM »
Silkman thank you for your road trip report. My wife recently saw an ad for the i3 and was curious, so I showed her your real-life account. I think the range extender is a wonderful feature for any EV during the transition period.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« on: January 02, 2018, 08:28:04 AM »
It's official.  The lowest bin 'won', and the Earth lost out.  (30% of us guessed [or calculated] right this time.)
From JAXA: showing from just before this poll opened. (Click for an enlargement.)
Is the 2010s average a new line in JAXA? Didn't know they showed it.

34
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: January 01, 2018, 07:48:31 PM »
Kudos, Sigmetnow.
That was a long and sad read. May your other posts be happier.

35
Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« on: January 01, 2018, 12:25:12 AM »
The ESAS is getting ready to release enough methane to do something like 1,000 times as much global warming as the carbon we have release is doing. The heat source driving this release is coming from the bottom up not the top down.  This means that carbon emissions reduction is pointless.
As far as I understand, not so. Surely the process speed depends in part on sea ice cover and water temps above the ESAS.

36
"freshwater hosing events"

Sorry, could you briefly explain what that is, or provide a link that does. Thanks.
Here's a plain language paragraph from an article published in July 2015 about Hansen's paper. Interestingly, since then there have been decreases in sea ice around Antarctica, not increases. But the cold spot near Greenland is still alive and kicking.

The paper also describes an atmosphere-ocean modeling study of feedback loops caused by ice sheet melting under 2°C conditions. What they found, Hansen says, is that melting ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica could inject enough fresh water into the seas to slow the formation of two key water masses: the North Atlantic Deepwater and the Antarctic Bottom Water formations. Both are part of the so-called Great Ocean Conveyor Belt of ocean circulation. The injection of so much cold water, they say, could lead to a stratification of the water column, with warm water buried underneath cold surface water. “Instead of emerging at the surface, much of that heat is melting the ice shelves,” Hansen says, producing more fresh water and amplifying the feedback. That is particularly striking, he added, because it’s what we’re observing right now: an increase in cold surface waters around Antarctica and Greenland, as well as increases in sea ice around some parts of Antarctica.
http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2015/07/climate-researcher-blasts-global-warming-target-highly-dangerous

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 29, 2017, 09:54:00 PM »
I'm actually pretty surprised we managed to slip underneath 2016 in extent here. While it's been an anomalously warm freezing season, 2016 was a fair bit warmer. It seems like the difference would have to be made up by an increase in ocean heat content.
Anomalous warmth and low extent don't necessarily go hand in hand. Extent differences at this time of year are at the periphery, while the warmth often mentioned hereabouts is in the inner arctic basin which currently has full ice extent (except the Chukchi which I chose to chart above). So I think some of the difference could show up in ice volume (and indeed end-2016 saw record low volume if I'm not mistaken).

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 29, 2017, 06:42:54 PM »
Here's a little chart I made focusing on the Chukchi Sea, "ground zero" of late refreeze and early melt in recent years. The fully ice-covered season, at 800-830k SqKM (the inverse of the 0-800 line) is shortening while the partial ice cover season is lengthening. A new "ice-free" season has appeared and is lengthening as well. I expect other parts of the Arctic to follow a similar path on the transition to seasonally ice-free.
Note: as the year is not over, the chart uses 362 days of each year, dropping the last 3 days as well as Feb 29.

39
Walking the walk / Re: Trash
« on: December 28, 2017, 11:10:33 PM »
Wow. So tertible.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« on: December 28, 2017, 01:57:57 PM »
Chukchi, Bering and especially Baffin are dragging on the extent numbers.

41
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: December 28, 2017, 01:54:20 PM »
Another outside take on EVs (from an economic blogger who is essentially a denier):
Electric vehicles are the wave of the future even if battery technology is not where it needs to be at present. While Elon Musk and the car makers have a spotlight on batteries, what about other components in the cars?
...
Once battery technology catches up with the needs of urban drivers, gasoline powered vehicles will quickly vanish.

Meanwhile, in ways most have not yet begun to think about, cars are undergoing a historical transformation.
https://www.themaven.net/mishtalk/economics/3m-dupont-ppg-corning-new-entrants-in-car-electrification-race-lLi8EZaExU6ZCDMYbFCk1g

42
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: December 28, 2017, 10:18:27 AM »
The 30-day SOI hasn't been negative for almost half a year. It seems to be signalling that our weak La Nina may be losing steam and could be on its way out.

43
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: December 27, 2017, 10:23:35 PM »
This may already have been discussed hereabout, but I thought it worth quoting anyway, as it comes from a mainstream source.
2. The biggest story in oil equities this year was Royal Dutch Shell’s decision to sell about $30 billion in upstream assets and concentrate its future business on downstream product production rather than oil drilling. Over the past year, Shell (NYSE:RDSa) either sold or looked to sell $587 million in assets in Gabon, $1.23 billion in gas assets in Ireland, $500 million in gas assets in Tunisia, $1 billion in assets in New Zealand. Part of this divestment strategy comes from a need to eliminate “nonstrategic assets” from Shell’s balance sheet. However, Shell’s CEO portrayed the shift as a response to growth in the electric vehicle market and forecasts of “peak oil demand.”

Shell’s decision to invest less money in upstream asset development is emblematic of a divergence among major oil companies that will continue in 2018. Some oil companies (Shell among them) are investing less in asset development and instead seeking value in petrochemicals, renewables, or refining. Other companies, particularly national oil companies like Aramco, are continuing or even expanding their investment in upstream asset development. Oil majors that choose to sell off upstream assets will see higher stock prices, in the short term. However, it is unclear if downstream assets and renewables will yield the kind of profits these companies have traditionally seen with the production and sale of crude oil in times of high oil prices. Look for this divergence to grow wider in 2018.
https://www.investing.com/analysis/top-5-oil-market-events-of-2017-and-what-to-expect-in-2018-200275960

44
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: December 27, 2017, 10:19:05 PM »
Found this EV mention in an Investing.Com article summing the oil market of 2017. It's kind of negative but the fact that it's mentioned in such an article is significant:
3. Electric vehicles were a top story this year. Several countries issued mandates designed to decrease the sale of conventional, gasoline burning vehicles and compel their populations to purchase electric vehicles instead. Major car manufacturers, like Volvo (OTC:VLVLY) and Toyota (NYSE:TM) made significant commitments to producing new electric vehicle models. At the same time, EV car company Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) suffered setbacks with the rollout of its Model 3 “EV for the masses” car.

Despite optimistic forecasts that predict much higher rates of electric vehicle adoption, the future of electric vehicles is unclear. Problems are already emerging with India’s EV mandate and consumers are learning about the social and environmental cost of lithium mining and battery waste. Unless we see a major technological breakthrough, most car buyers in 2018 will find electric vehicles are not worth the cost.
https://www.investing.com/analysis/top-5-oil-market-events-of-2017-and-what-to-expect-in-2018-200275960

45
Antarctica / Re: Surge of WAIS Ice Mass Loss
« on: December 26, 2017, 10:49:39 PM »
Hopefully, the University of Washington fleet of robotic drone submersibles will provide new data on the thinning of the Pine Island Ice Shelf next year:

Title: "UW’s robotic fleet will probe under Antarctic ice shelves for clues to future sea-level rise"

http://www.theolympian.com/news/local/article191577664.html

Extract: "The UW team plans to focus on Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica’s fastest-melting ice sheet, where a huge iceberg broke off this fall. The glacier’s flow has sped up nearly 75 percent in the past 40 years, possibly due to thinning of the floating ice shelf.

“That’s worrisome,” Christianson said. “We didn’t suspect these ice sheets would change as fast as they have.”
Very good.

46
Policy and solutions / Re: Energy Efficiency: The “First Fuel”
« on: December 25, 2017, 06:58:10 PM »
Sigmetnow, that's a seriously cool thermostat. (Pun not intended...)

47
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: December 25, 2017, 06:54:20 PM »
Merry Christmas Sleepy. Your image is not loading for me. And was your account reset or something?

48
Policy and solutions / Re: Energy Efficiency: The “First Fuel”
« on: December 24, 2017, 08:47:30 AM »
I can tell you point blank that in Israel, were electricity rates (currently ~16 cents/kwh) to go down, A/C usage as well as general electiricity usage would surely grow by a lot. OTOH, with its southern latitude, mostly clear weather and lack of snow, if/when the country is blanketed with solar panels, there'll be enough production for everyone.

49
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: December 23, 2017, 10:49:32 PM »
Looks like a lot of widening given it's just 9 days between the images.

50
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: December 23, 2017, 10:47:34 PM »
Here is one analysis:

http://mb-soft.com/public3/asphalt.html
Which says that if we were to change ALL asphalt surfaces in the US (roads, parking lots, roofs) from an albedo of 5 to 85, it would change global equilibrium temperature by only 0.05F. Consider that only a very small percentage of the total area is plowed, and only in winter when insolation is low, and you get a tiny effect indeed. So thanks for supporting my gut feeling, but why make a preposterous claim to begin with?

Can you present any support for your claim that decreased snowfall has a greater influence on temperature?
Also, these numbers were for the U.S. alone.  Factor in the rest of the world, and that value rises.
I should point out I did not make any claim about decreased snowfall. You got this mixed up. But more importantly I want to ask:
Do you still stand by the claim that snow clearing (US or global) from roads and asphalt surfaces is the main reason for winter warming over the past century?

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