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Messages - Bruce Steele

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: October 13, 2018, 02:04:57 AM »
Uniquorn, OK there doesn't look like there was a reversal. Next question , how much evidence do we have that surface fresh water layer has thinned? Was there a relaxation of the gyre and how long would it take for a measurable portion of the surface water to excape its grip . I am hoping this years deployment of ice tethered profilers will show us some more about the surface layer questions closer to the center of the gyre.
 Thanks for the great animations.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: October 12, 2018, 09:04:03 PM »
Uniquorn, Generally I look at the BGOS buoys as bounding the gyre. If you look at itp 109 as being the closest you can see it also has the surface fresh water closest to the surface in contrast to the other buoys currently sending data. I would think the buoys closest to the center of the gyre should have the deepest surface fresh water layer. You can check out completed missions to get past data. Itp 85 tracked fairly close to where itp 109 has tracked or itp 78 for a buoy that did a circle around the gyre.
I probably should defer to Fish Out of Water on the drivers of the current status but I wonder about the gyre spinning counterclockwise this fall and the effects of that relaxation event. Fish had this to say over on the freezing season page today

"The problem on the Bering side is the unprecedented heat flux into the Arctic. Warm, moderatly salty Pacific water has flowed into the Arctic then descended to the 30m to 100m level, below the fresh water layer caused by Siberian river influx.

There's a rapidly growing amount of heat in the Pacific water layer above the Atlantic water layer which is shoaling as freshwater is flowing out of the Arctic through the CAA and the Fram strait."

So is the shoaling of the warm Pacific water, evidenced by itp 109 ,displacing the surface water or did the surface water spin out with the relaxation of the clockwise rotation of the gyre ?



3
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: October 12, 2018, 01:00:28 AM »
Unicorn, There are six new ITP buoys that are all working. I am interested in the depth of the surface fresh water layer at the center of the Beaufort Gyre. It may be awhile till any of the new buoys get there however. The one profiler ( 108 ) that was working for the 2018 melting season never did join the clockwise spin of the Beaufort gyre and instead made a straight line from launch to the Amundsen Gulf. It's course made me wonder if some of the Beaufort surface fresh water exited with the buoy .

4
Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: September 28, 2018, 12:37:21 AM »
Sigmetnow, Thanks for the Calif. Coastal Commission document linked in the ScientificAmerican article.
300 pages worth some reading time. The document stresses the position that we need to fall back as opposed to armoring agains't sea level rise. It also says Southern Calif will loose many  of it's beaches.
Many are currently maintained with sand dredged offshore. I wonder how long those efforts to  replenish the beaches will go on. As long as we don't consider dredged sand as armoring I would guess.

5
Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: September 28, 2018, 12:11:31 AM »
etienne, I think of solar as part of an exit from fossil fuels. Even with the best of intentions it is difficult to live both a simple life and live within any current civilization. Fresh water, irrigation water and sanitation are all energy drains we are totally dependent upon , civilization wise.  Computer use ,food , recreation and transportation can be simplified from and individual standpoint but there are limits to what cities can do ... to collectively simplify. I guess I am trying yo say there is plenty of opportunities to simplify but something like hard limits to simplify civilization. Solar can ,I believe ,power some of those necessities but we collectively need to walk back our expectations for how much it can power.
IMO
 

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: September 27, 2018, 04:18:14 AM »
There are two new ITP buoys in the Beaufort, ITP 109 and 110. They both seem to be working and sending out temperature / salinity numbers.

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=163196

7
The rest / Re: Poetry
« on: September 25, 2018, 07:45:16 AM »
Terry, Maybe pigs aren't like a favorite dog . I hope winter is kind to you this year.

8
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: September 25, 2018, 04:55:17 AM »
Archimid, I don't think meddling in DNA and engineering terminal genes is a good idea. I would much rather the mosquitos held their timeless spot as human killers than to start down the road of bioengineering nature. Not us or them cause we have cohabitated from day one.

9
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: September 25, 2018, 03:39:58 AM »
Archimid, Should they all die or only the ones that vector disease ? Death might not be so cooperative perhaps ?

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: September 25, 2018, 03:29:44 AM »
Friv, Do you mean 1st of Oct.?  Then Sept.  average will be under 4.75 in the pool.

11
Walking the walk / Re: Zero-Carbon Farming and Living via the Acorn Path
« on: September 24, 2018, 09:07:03 PM »
Neven, I am glad your wife reads the ASIF on occasion. Acorns are something that can illuminate the past,foraging, emergency food stores, the march of the seasons , and faint memories of famine foods.
Funny that the distant memories of hard times somehow taints the collective memory.
I enjoy the pursuit of the arcane in such a common form. Oaks and acorns are a part of our past, they have much to teach us and someday they will get pieces of the human tribe through some very difficult times.
 It is acorn season again here in Southern Calif.  I still have dried acorns from last year. I also have dried corn but keeping dried foods for extended periods can be a problem. I had bugs ( little beetles )get into the dried bean stores. Most dried foods lose flavor and anything with fat tends to go rancid . Acorns however can be stored several years in the shell and the tannins keep them from going bad. In tough times the ability to store foods high in fat is very important. 
 I am more and more convinced I could singlehandedly feed several dozen people and a few pigs on foraged foods and a zero fossil fuel garden. I doubt I will ever be required to do so but maybe the knowledge has some utility yet. Or perhaps I will die old, fat and an anachronism .
 

12
My condolences to the 4.5-5.0 bin members but that little one day drop on the 18th means about 55% of the ASIF voters got it right this year which has to be some kind of record .

13
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: September 17, 2018, 10:34:35 PM »
GSY,  "Carbon negative farming is real and with a fair price it would be highly profitable."
 Yes you can use compost to sink some carbon but that compost comes with it's own carbon costs of transport and whatever fertilizer, water, and fossil fuels were used to produce it. Compost also requires animal manures to achieve a proper carbon nitrogen mix to promote the proper balance of
 bacteria that  do the work.
  A return to best practices that incorporated composts and manures of pre 1850 farming practices would over a very long period rebuild degraded soils but I have serious doubts that we would ever achieve soil carbon levels that pre-dated current industrial agriculture.
  The vegans would have us give up farm animals , beasts of burden and all the parts of agriculture that formerly yielded healthy soils.  So unless someone can show me some serious documentation of carbon farming sinking billions of tons of carbon I have reservations about carbon farming as a solution for current human densities. Someone please show me a self sustaining farm run without animals or manure that produces food, income and healthy soils.
  A crash is coming and some farmers will get through the bottleneck. Hopefully those farmers will be happy with their station in life. The city lights won't burn so brightly or draw the farmers off the land when the fossil fuels are finally spent.
 

14
Policy and solutions / Re: Energy Efficiency: The “First Fuel”
« on: September 15, 2018, 04:26:04 AM »
What we desire and what we will settle for are of course two different things. When you can't keep living the life you've lived because resources have dried up and most of the alternatives will leave you cold and hungry you still have to make a choice. Welcome to life . Maybe we are just running out of resources ?
Genocide would imply someone planned
 such a thing.
A population crash isn't usually planned , not for humans or any other living thing, but it will happen when resources dry up.


What the world needs is good examples of how to live with diminishing resources and a changing climate. Successful examples might not include the comforts we think we are entitled to but desire and what we will settle for are two different things.

It would seem the comment I was responding to has already been deleted. Cool




15
Science / Re: Carbon Cycle
« on: September 10, 2018, 06:34:22 PM »
Royal Society.  Open access
 Title.   Placing our current" hyperthermal " in the context of rapid climate change in our geological past
 Foster, Hull, Lunt, & Zachos
 Sept 2018

http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/376/2130/20170086

Putting our hyperthermal in context of past events. A warning in the final sentences that biological impacts may exceed  any caused by climate change over the last 56 million years. But that assumes we continue our emissions to consume most fossil fuel reserves.

16
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: September 04, 2018, 07:56:21 PM »
Oversimplification , Would efforts to reduce nighttime energy use impact the overbuild that solar seems to require?
How to reduce nighttime electric use ?
Laundry during daytime with efforts at outdoor drying , cloths lines
Dishwashing during daylight hours
Home lighting LED
Computer by daylight
Limit TV hours
Volt meters for individual appliances
Go to bed early
Wake up early
Use the sun while it's there
Solar thermal storage for water and heating
Air conditioning during daylight
 
Why is it we don't spend more time on trying to live within the constraints of a different energy system?   
As a personal observation grid tied solar easily becomes little more than a dependably cheap utility bill.
Batteries and off grid must be a completely different experiance . The off grid experiance is perhaps the lifestyle changer that might inspire the using the sun while it's there options listed above?

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: August 31, 2018, 12:11:20 AM »
This paper postulates that 2018 may see cyclonic conditions like  2017 in the Beaufort. A relaxation of Ekman pumping and a cyclonic spin to the Beaufort gyre may be releasing accumulated surface fresh water and some of the deeper accumulated heat via transpolar drift and the garlic press. Fish out of water has been highlighting the large flows moving out through the garlic press over the last month.

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=66597

"
Our analysis of recent changes in the atmospheric forcing over the Arctic Ocean (Proshutinsky et al., 2018) for the entire 2017 showed that the atmospheric circulation regime in 2017 was predominantly cyclonic (for the first time since 1997), with a small anticyclonic cell in the southeastern BG region. SLP distributions in 2016-2017 were similar to conditions observed in 1988-1989 when the 1983-1988 ACCR shifted to a CCR that lasted from 1989-1996 (Proshutinsky et al., 2015). We hypothesize that the 2017 shift to CCR could be a precursor for a CCR to dominate for the next 3-5 years, resembling the 1989-1996 tendencies. A cyclonic regime has generally been associated with some increase and stabilization of sea ice extent, intensification of Atlantic water transport via Fram Strait, weakened Siberian river runoff, decreased BG FWC, and FW release to the North Atlantic (Proshutinsky et al., 1999).  It is also expected that sea ice extent minimum in 2018 will be similar to 2017 or increased because cyclonic winds keep sea-ice in the Arctic which reduces rates of ice melt due to ice-albedo feedback. Therefore, continuing BGOS observations in 2019 and 2020 are likely to detect and quantify FW release from the BG region, which has never been documented before."

IMHO The heat that has been accumulating in the Beaufort may potentially exit the Arctic without mixing upward into the surface mixed layer.

18
Policy and solutions / Re: Policy & Solutions
« on: August 26, 2018, 04:35:10 AM »
Eco-Author, Maybe there is some problem of scale . As a very determined individual or small family maybe you can figure out how to live on something close to zero carbon. I don't know any options that include any of the mechanical solutions you might prefer. Slave labor or slave mechanical labor is very addicting.
 If you can't think of how to live zero carbon as an individual how then does a village or a country do any better ? That is part our silence , we are plenty smart enough to realize we too are the problem.

Best idea I have heard on something that can scale is simply to pipe the effluents of all major coastal metropolis into anerobic ocean basins. We already dump the effluents so with some pipes we could at least send the carbon it contains where it won't come back for a very long time.
 

19
The rest / Re: Poetry
« on: August 23, 2018, 07:48:43 PM »
Terry, repost. Another Jeffers

    The House Dog's Grave (Haig, an English bulldog)

I've changed my ways a little; I cannot now
Run with you in the evenings along the shore,
Except in a kind of dream; and you, if you dream a moment,
You see me there.

So leave awhile the paw-marks on the front door
Where I used to scratch to go out or in,
And you'd soon open; leave on the kitchen floor
The marks of my drinking-pan.

I cannot lie by your fire as I used to do
On the warm stone,
Nor at the foot of your bed; no, all the night through
I lie alone.

But your kind thought has laid me less than six feet
Outside your window where firelight so often plays,
And where you sit to read--and I fear often grieving for me--
Every night your lamplight lies on my place.

You, man and woman, live so long, it is hard
To think of you ever dying
A little dog would get tired, living so long.
I hope that when you are lying

Under the ground like me your lives will appear
As good and joyful as mine.
No, dear, that's too much hope: you are not so well cared for
As I have been.

And never have known the passionate undivided
Fidelities that I knew.
Your minds are perhaps too active, too many-sided. . . .
But to me you were true.

You were never masters, but friends. I was your friend.
I loved you well, and was loved. Deep love endures
To the end and far past the end. If this is my end,
I am not lonely. I am not afraid. I am still yours.


Robinson Jeffers, 1941

20
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: August 21, 2018, 02:09:32 AM »
The Bering Sea didn't freeze during the 2017/2018 winter season. Surveys show shelf bottom temperatures didn't drop below 2C and as a consequence fish populations on the shelf have shifted
North of a thermal barrier that has been in place for 37 years of surveys.

http://www.nomenugget.com/news/noaa-survey-shows-shocking-lack-thermal-barrier-between-northern-and-southern-bering-sea

The missing young of year class/classes is going to reverberate through some of the biggest fisheries in the US. This is the first report on this survey, it isn't yet complete.
 IMO  The effects on managing those very important fish stocks is going to mean that managers consider the Bering Sea freeze conditions into stock assessments . Possibly as an environmental trigger resulting in restricted catches.


21
Policy and solutions / Re: Policy & Solutions
« on: August 19, 2018, 08:53:15 AM »
Honestly it's not as physically difficult as it is mentally so.
In the rhythm of it, chores twice a day , my charges waiting . It is not bad , they are happy and they can raise my mood. The life death thing is really tough however , I mean they trust me ,hell they like me.
But,
If the pigs and I can prove we can run a farm without fossil fuels to run equipment well for me that
makes the years efforts worthwhile .
It is squash season and acorns are coming soon.
I am lucky today ,
A family of Oaxacans are going to start farming/gardening with me.
I have been kinda lazy lately and having help, and children around is going to help.

Re. Vegetable Excess  I have tried honor system without much trouble. Money in a bowl, make your own change.
One thing about selling roadside is the people who bother to stop and bother to come back are  generally the neighbors you'd want to meet anyhow.

Land is very expensive, wells, tractors, trucks, solar.  Margins are very tight. You could live pretty well on the hundreds of thousands of dollars it costs to get started.
My wife and I are challenging ourselves to six months without a grocery store this year. Three months last year were not a problem. The annual challenge starts January first. Volunteers ?

You gotta think years in advance to think of famine reserves. I have enough dried field corn , acorns , pigs and laying hens to get through six months and that is before this years harvest comes in.
Again it isn't that difficult but some company while gardening will be nice.

We don't have hard winters Sidd but it only rained eight inches last year. Eight years into a drought.


22
Policy and solutions / Re: Policy & Solutions
« on: August 18, 2018, 08:40:36 PM »
 Electricity powers water pumps around here and yes solar panels require fossil fuels in manufacture but I think the energy required to produce well pumps and solar to run them is compensated by the food calories produced over the decades they will remain working. In a farm setting anyhow.
 Of course people can buy land and grow a garden in areas( Minnesota )  without the droughts that are a common part of West Coast living. You still would probably require a well at least for domestic but the drought issues we are dealing with might spread as things heat up so agricultural irrigation is a big part of avoiding those years that in the past would result in famine. If local is strictly local.
 So a back to the land movement that Heinberg was talking about back in 2006 isn't any closer to happening now than it was then. The major thing I have seen is thousands of more homeless in the intervening 12 years. Why aren't they planting victory gardens?  I am not trying to be negative I am just trying to describe it like I see it.
 Everything just seems  that when the decline starts it is going to be cliff like. Stopping that decline with intervening steps like back to the land , permaculture , or self suffiecency requires planning .
Wells, solar, home heating and food storage are costs that can't be avoided. Where the next step down from there to primitive comes might be when the pumps fail and you can't afford to fix them . I do think about that step too. Acorns, foraging , stone tools.  If things are going to completely collapse it might be easier to go there first and avoid the intervening chaos. That is always an option , but the wife ain't even close to willing.
 

23
The rest / Re: Poetry
« on: August 18, 2018, 08:03:08 AM »
Thank you Sid , Sharing poems is always personal and kinda scary.

24
The rest / Re: Poetry
« on: August 18, 2018, 03:11:33 AM »
And some of my efforts

Had I the space
And the time
The patience to wait
Had I a hope
And a beautiful smile
Had I the stride
Or stubborn persistence
To accept what is ,Had I every wish

Had I a room
Whether it the best
To live out every dream
Had I a love
With whom I might share it
Or fight the tempest
If choice had I , Had I every wish


    Ceilo
The CCC camp has quince and grapes gone wild
Oaks and acorns being sustenance these days
  to the misery of what will be
Barrel staves hand carved , the grapes hand picked
    Ceilo
Stars needing worship
Prayers being said
Glow worms , midsummer
Poorwill
And the tusk rasp of distant pigs

 
                  Twenty-ten
Known only ease
 Ours
Dreamed only of
 More
We did not look
 Or turned away
 From old truths
We didn't listen
 To the winds off the pacific
  Or send our sons there for testing
Trading the cold ocean of old
  For more

               CO2
We have seen far into our darkness
 mistakenly called comfort
Not this
True, asteroids, volcanism
  the turning of vast scales
But never one life form
  over multitudes
Millions sacrificed , for a little comfort
No return to  innocence ours
As the acid eats away at the shell of life



There through the moving shafts of sunlight
  Move denizens
  Unseen, unheard
The inverted forest harbors our cousins
The seabed crawls with our genes
Cloned tunicates being close to us
From them
 life eventually moved forth, breathed air
 and burned the body mass of the ancients


                   Surface Tension
It is lifting facing a double gale
Leaning into it
The roar

Not something from nothing
 but the spin off the planet
 coming down

The wind takes the ocean
  Spits it, peaks it up
   but unbruised she settles in again
And you'd never know tomorrow
  the   heavens ever had a place here



 



25
Policy and solutions / Re: Policy & Solutions
« on: August 18, 2018, 01:52:35 AM »
Thanks Steve, wish I could do a better job of walking the walk. Driving to meetings really drives me nuts. We do get more done on conference calls these days but they aren't a very good replacement when dealing with any intergroup conflicts. I would like to share an excerpt from a planning document as a response to Acidification in Calif waters and what we should do about it. It is in comment stage right now .
" Systematically integrate OA and coasts and oceans into Calif. GHA greenhouse emissions reduction plan.
 Reduce the carbon footprint of seafood consumption in the state. The first step is to evaluate the potential for the environmental , economic , and social costs and benefits of incentivizing consumption of locally sourced products ( wild capture, aquaculture ) and reducing imports of foreign sourced products.
 If warranted work with seafood certification and rating programs to integrate carbon footprint information into rating systems and public education products."

This is just a part of a much larger document but it may reflect part of my earlier inputs into the process of brainstorming this effort. It is policy development in it's infancy. It may end up on the cutting room floor but for now it's in there.  Carbon footprint information in rating systems so the public can make informed decisions.
 
Much of politics is dogged persistence , doesn't always turn to results but it is how policy is developed.

26
Policy and solutions / Re: Policy & Solutions
« on: August 18, 2018, 12:26:05 AM »
As much as I'd like to believe we can have a back to the land movement there are some inefficiencies in the current farmers market model sales route that means it costs more carbon than the commodity crops grocery store alternative.  It takes a lot more gasoline to move hundreds of F-250 pick-ups with a few cases of produce on the farmer market routes than shipping with semi trucks and shipping hubs.
Back to the land is a nice romantic notion , and I'm a romantic and struggle every day with how to actually farm a small farm and pay for it at the same time. I for the life of me can't figure out how to do it without lots of fuel. The grocery store market does promote vast concentration of farm animals and some inhuman treatment due to those densities but it delivers cheap food. I am forced to somehow compete ,and with a conscience. Tuff nut that
 I wish there was a way to have a carbon footprint labeling law on all food, including restaurants. It is a pipe dream but I wish we had one and that it was part of the carbon tax in 1) carbon tax , increasing annually . As envisioned by GSY
 So in my vision you include some way to make food preferences accountable by carbon footprint labeling and requisite carbon taxes to reflect air shipment , luxury foods , restaurant footprints hopefully you will  come up with methods to maybe benefit the frugal. Both producers and consumers .
I can hear it now from regulators " we don't reward frugality " 

Ideally you could pay carbon taxes on the imbedded costs of electric water pumps, electric tractors trucks etc. and solar panels to power it all. After those initial costs you could make a living and sell your products with a low carbon footprint rating . This rating would mean the customer would have a reason to buy your produce, it would cost them less. Commodity farmers might outcompete small farmers at this game but if a reduction in carbon is the goal we should favor the best solutions.

The cost of meat would show it's carbon costs and the price with carbon taxes might discourage extravagance, and over indulgence. Some fish would be surprisingly inexpensive.

  Reward the frugal, that's the policy and it turns the current system on it's head which is what we need.
 

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 17, 2018, 09:36:11 PM »
Rox, I found this recent paper that describes Ekman pumping in the Beaufort gyre. There are two years in the record with anomalous Ekman pumping events, 2007 and 2012. 2007 was a down welling anomaly and 2012 was an upwelling event.  It may be we are seeing something similar to the 2007 event , anti cyclonic conditions, described on page nine of the PDF.
( I really blew this, we are in cyclonic conditions so more like 2012 ) please ignor last sentence above,
http://oceans.mit.edu/JohnMarshall/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/meneghello2018governor.pdf

bbr2314, If this year is similar to 2007 do you see anything in the 2007-2008 freezing season we should look to as something analogus to what you are predicting? 

A-Team , I agree that the profiler is not working for its intended use anymore but the tracker still is sending out information re. Location and its entry into the Amundsen was a tell on water movements.
 

28
Policy and solutions / Re: Policy & Solutions
« on: August 17, 2018, 05:28:31 AM »
I think the Arctic Sea Ice page description is self evident  ... the ice. You are just making more work for Neven which really sucks. Please go to the Policy & Solutions page.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 17, 2018, 03:30:51 AM »
WHOI ITP 108 is going to exit the plot page tomorrow or the next day. It's course makes me wonder how much fresh water is exiting the Arctic via the garlic press. This will be the first time in the six years I have been watching that we will have zero ITP buoys in the Arctic. The Beaufort Gyre is not very healthy right now and that I believe has consequences for retention of the surface fresh water lens.
 If someone out there with more knowledge than I ( that's a long list) might comment on the gyre and it's current health I would appreciate it. Something seems very different this year.

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=160136

Here is a paper on the question asked above

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=66597

Is this what we are seeing ?

30
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: August 15, 2018, 08:47:54 PM »
"Bird species collapse in the Mojave, Driven by Climate Change"

https://www.kqed.org/science/1929188/bird-species-collapse-in-the-mojave-driven-by-climate-change

"The longer-term solution has to involve managing groundwater, Beissinger says, because when aquifers are overdraw, it's the desert that dries out first."

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 13, 2018, 07:43:41 PM »
Although ITP 108 isn't working as a profiler it is still sending out it's location. It looks like it is going to exit the Beaufort Sea via the Amundsen Gulf. Too bad the profiler is broken , it would be interesting to see how much  fresh water is exiting with it. This is a strange track for a profiler buoy.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: August 13, 2018, 12:02:11 AM »
It looks to me like a boat could circumnavigate Greenland right now. Has a sailboat ever done that ?
Any boat without an icebreaker ?

33
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: August 12, 2018, 02:28:14 AM »
With US commodity crop supports at ~ 25 billion and fossil fuel  supports at ~ 15 billion we can produce lots of food . But the whole mess runs on fossil fuels, the tractors, the fertilizers, the transport.
So we are propping up production and we don't really have any other plans. For the US this works out just fine but for countries without the fossil fuels or adequate productive farmland I have my doubts.
We are fracking our way into unconventional fuel reserves to make up the gap from a downturn in conventional reserves. And again everything is fine until the tight oil pays start to get played out.
 I haven't ever seen an assessment of how organic fertilizers can supplant the current system and doing so with the increased costs of repowering our tractors and transport system demands some magical thinking. Compost and compost feedstocks are bulky and require lots of fossil fueled equipment to produce at scale. 
 So the notion that we have plenty of food production is like saying we have plenty of oil because they are the same thing. Everything is fine till it isn't but as long as everything is fine we are going to be dumping 10GT of carbon into the atmosphere. Great !
 Maybe you can get by without a car, or flying , an A/C or meat but none of those sacrifices will produce food for 7.5-10 billion people if the fossil fuel we power our farm equipment with starts into decline.
I agree that there will be lots of farmland returning into forests but it will happen at the same time we begin to starve.
 Martin knows how difficult this problem is because Martin has tried producing food outside the conventional methods.

34
Rod, "The Beaufort gyre has clearly slowed, and possibly reversed, which might mark the first reversal since before the 2007 crash."
 Could you give me some info on this claim? I watch the ITP Whoi data and 108 and it's path around the Beaufort seems sluggish but a reversal , a long one , would be something I haven't seen .
Would be important I agree if it were to happen.

35
Consequences / Re: Decline in insect populations
« on: August 10, 2018, 02:01:44 AM »
Years ago I served on an agriculture water quality board. We knew then that a pesticide , chlorpyfros, was responsible for rendering one third of all watersheds between Monterey and Carpenteria devoid of insect life. That is the region I was helping to represent but this pesticide is very heavily used all across Calif. and the US. EPA was scheduled to ban it's use but Dow chemical lobbied for it's continued use and the current administration overruled the EPA ban. Everything I hear is about it's negative effects on humans but this crap is deadly to riparian insect populations and the fish that depend on them.
 Good news is that a New York court has ordered the EPA to take chlorpyfros off the market within 60 days. I suppose Dow will try to get the Supreme Court to take up the case but for now we and Calif watersheds have a bit of a victory.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/09/us/politics/chlorpyrifos-pesticide-ban-epa-court.html




36
Policy and solutions / Re: Geoengineering, another rush for money?
« on: August 09, 2018, 02:59:11 AM »
NeilT, Heat is distributed in surface waters much differently than in intermediate, deep or bottom waters. Bottom waters can take up to a thousand years to bring cold , saline, and CO2 ( DIC ) rich waters back to the surface from initial formation processes.
 I don't know much about OTEC but if they extend only into intermediate waters you are correct and circulation time is about 35-50 years from formation to upwelling at least in the North Pacific.

I was attracted to this new proposal because it can produce alkalinity as a byproduct and at least locally this could be used to increase the saturation state of surface waters and improve conditions for species sensitive to acidification. Yes it would distribute heat into deeper waters that will eventually return to the surface but there may be locations where that return time is longer than intermediate waters of the North Pacific.  It is a redistribution of heat rather than the creation of heat that results from combustion and added atmospheric CO2 so IMO it is renewable and less damaging than current fossil fuel energy production.

37
Policy and solutions / Re: Geoengineering, another rush for money?
« on: August 08, 2018, 07:59:22 PM »
If this method of using OTEC , ocean thermal energy, can be run at scale it would be an enormous step forward. OTEC is used to convert thermal energy into hydrogen which can be used as a produced fuel and the byproduct is a common form of alkalinity that can counteract ocean acidification.

 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136403211830532X?via%3Dihub

38
Bbr2214 , Maybe the effort it takes to make hundreds of meetings about agriculture, water or fisheries issues...(politics in general) leads me to a different opinion about positive change or the effectiveness
? Tyranny ? of the vocal minority. Getting out there in the public and making your little stand is important ,  I gotta believe that.
 The authors of both of the cited articles are taking a bit of a beating.  I think people should have some idea about how bad things may get so I am happy they stood up.
 For what it's worth I took a very vocal stand about ocean acidification over ten years ago. For a commercial fisherman I was way out in front of a very new issue. Acidification in the intervening decade has become much clearer in the threat category. A fisherman friend recently admitted he thought I was nuts ten years ago but he now wonders how much damage we are in for or maybe already seeing.
 I would like to give you a story about how the new 52% tariff on squid is impacting Calif. sales to China but everything is in such flux that I don't have much to say. Tariff was 27% and another 25% has been added.
 
 
 

39
Bbr2314  Treating people like they're idiots and suggesting strongarm state government actions will get you more Donald Trump . Do you ever go stand up in public meetings or participate in public forums where you don't get to hide behind anonymity?

40
The New York Times article timeline perspective on our collective failure to act is a good job of journalism IMO. Makes me think back to when I had  my moment of realization...this is bad, real bad. For me it was 2005 and it came in the form of the first paper about subjecting biological specimens to acidified seawater. Shiryama et al 2005 . My wife got an education along with me because acidification and climate change is a big damn subject .We are both involved with fisheries and fisheries politics and we have struggled together to rise the awareness at least in the political circles we have some affect upon.
 Getting from the moment of realization to making some waves politically has taken long enough that the commensurate lifestyle changes we could personally take have developed as a corrolary. So my wife has struggled along with me , taken the "acorn challenge" , invested in solar and quit almost all air travel.
 Fisheries have only lately begun to look into adaptation . I don't think that is an adequate response so I am pushing for something more like adapting fisheries management to consider mechanisms to favor efficiency. It is where we will end up anyhow so operating fisheries utilizing less fuel for calories produced is where I am focusing.
 Politics is always disappointing but it is part of what I consider necessary pain. And posting here is mostly cathartic. Politics for the authors of the two articles cited above and most of the characters involved has also been painful I am sure . It isn't heroics , it's hard work .
 

41
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: August 06, 2018, 08:41:02 PM »
My list might look a little different,
 Don't eat beef, goats , buffalo , or sheep
 Don't fly
 Don't eat food that used air transport
 Install solar panels
 Grow as much of your own food as possible
 Eat foods that are in season and local or bulk dried and transported ideally by rail or ship
 Every 100 gallons of gas is another ton of CO2 - remember that as you fill up the tank
 Very small family ... Or family plans
 Get your children on board with the above list
 
We in the 10% could change our destructive habits and our lives wouldn't be much different than they are currently until the effects of the last fifty years of accumulated extravagance finally catches up with us.

42
A poor man's Tesla

43


"My lifestyle has a carbon footprint of about 3 tonnes of CO2 per annum.  I've been living this way for most of the past 6 years.  I am interested in documenting a lifestyle that is "carbon neutral" today, using off the shelf equipment, traveling and living here in the USA."

I need to prove some math.

My question is: what amount of annual CO2 emissions from human activities would be possible without raising global PPM?
[/quote]

Sark, I agree that 3T CO2 per annum is commendable but if your goal is " carbon neutral " then at some level you will need to sink carbon. Same problem IPCC models run into as we approach 2 degree climate goals.
 To achieve " Neutral Carbon " first you must achieve something close to zero ff carbon emissions . This is I believe an achievable goal although I can think of very few examples . Primitivism or Amish agriculturists are two examples.
 Sinking carbon via agricultural practices is very labor intensive without fossil fueled equipment to harvest carbon feedstocks ( fast growing softwoods ) and accumulate nitrogen sources for composting i.e. manure.
 Finding someone who both lives without uses of fossil fuel energy and at the same time composting
hundreds of pounds ( tons ) of compost is going to be quite the search and maybe that's why there hasn't been
any suggestions on where you should look.
 I believe I could get somewhere near the "neutral carbon goal " with biodiesel , pigs , acorns and a serious garden effort. The gardening effort would require carbon feedstock harvest of of riparian softwoods and manure harvest from chickens and pigs.
 The big problem with using mechanical power and internal combustion engines or photovoltaics is the energy embedded in the manufacture of these tools. That is why I think an honest attempt at zero carbon will require tons and tons of compost to break even on the embedded carbon costs of tools.
If photovoltaics manufacture is powered by renewable energy this problem diminishes but you still need to think about energy costs of mining , smelting and transport of metals.
 So if anyone has examples of people living "neutral carbon" I'd be as interested as you are in the numbers involved. Thanks for asking answers to the biggest , difficult problem out there . What Does Zero Carbon Look Like?

44
The rest / Re: Wildlife
« on: August 04, 2018, 11:40:53 PM »
Beavers were reintroduced to the Santa Ynez river about seventy years ago . They are IMO the best mammal carbon engineers on the planet. With a strong work ethic, fast growing teeth, and softwood trees,  they can engineer green riparian habitats from flat sunburned gravel riverbed. Once the beaver dams have been established cattail ( bullrush ) fill in the pond perimeter. Cattail are much better carbon sinks than sunburnt gravel. Anyway I am a fan ! Viva la beaver ! 

45
Terry, They need a wallow.
I don't know how many other swallows died in the earlier heatwave that killed the ones in my window eaves . I think there is damage we just don't see but I think we would prefer to look away anyhow.
I have looked for the last decade into acidification and it will proceed without notice because it is even more obscure than dead barn swallows or stressed farm livestock.
 You'd think an old pig farmer might be toughened up to such things.
 And yes an old breed like the Mangalitsas I raise are hardier but on hot days I keep a vigil because all pigs are very sensitive to heat. I however get to sneak back into the AC between rounds.
 Maybe it's morbid but we should have reality TV in the slums of Mumbai when temps push human endurance so we can see it . Don't worry it ain't gonna happen but most of us need to open our eyes.
We watch the Barrow Ice Cam but maybe we need a Mumbai wet bulb cam .

46
Rumor, anecdotal , and I wasn't there.
During the Calif. Mid. State Fair a large number of pigs died of heat exposure . Maybe 60.  Temperatures reached 111 F and 109 F for the last couple days of the fair. I can't find any news coverage because it is tragic and brutal and it hurts too much . But there it is , climate change death and our feeble tolerance to pain.
It don't make good copy.
And we are going to be burying the bad stories, and we don't want to hear about climate change , or hard cold evidence. And we won't. Na na na na na na

https://www.sanluisobispo.com/entertainment/mid-state-fair/article215361510.html

And no there is no mention of pig mortality in this article... Just people trying to excape the heat.

47
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: July 24, 2018, 01:40:11 AM »
We had a heatwave here in Southern California that set records a couple weeks back. Temperatures here hit 103 F , unusually hot for this coastal influenced climate. The swallows were sitting on their nests with eggs and new fledgling chicks. The babies didn't make it and i have one active nest left. There were about a hundred active birds before the heatwave. I am going to check to see if the adults also expired.
 I asked around at the local feed store and got confirmation other people noticed nest failure and abandonment.

48
Consequences / Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences
« on: July 24, 2018, 01:07:27 AM »
Jai mentioned acidification and future reductions in DMS ( Dimethyl sulfide ) as a potential positive feedback not included in forecasts. We are headed into a world with much larger areas of ocean surfaces that will be exposed to aragonite undersaturation in polar oceans and eastern  boundary current upwelling areas. Undersaturation results in a change in phytoplankton communities . Those community phytoplankton changes result in a decrease of DMS production, less clouds and increased insolation. Currently modeled as a weak positive feedback.
 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10533-018-0430-5

" Comparisons between parallel simulations with and without DMS fluxes into the atmosphere show significant differences in marine ecosystems and physical fields. Without DMS, the missing subsequent aerosol indirect effects on clouds and radiative forcing lead to fewer clouds, more solar radiation, and a much warmer climate."

This is an example of a chemical threshold , undersaturation, that results in biological responses only once that threshold is crossed. It is coming but we can't look at past trends to see the signal . I would agree with Jai that there are  positive feedbacks not incorporated into current models. There are also some negative feedbacks not incorporated . If however the Arctic Summer's cloudiness is reduced in the future as ocean acidification advances then potentially the positive feedbacks of less DMS production will counteract some of the negative feedbacks that Arctic  summer cloudiness currently produces.

49
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: July 18, 2018, 02:37:43 AM »
Pig farmers are losing herds of pigs all across Russia, Poland and many other countries as African Swine Fever spreads now westward. Wild pig populations harbor the disease and moves it across borders.
 Here is a list of cases of virulent animal disease cases worldwide. African Swine Flu is attributed to place , date etc.
 https://www.oie.int/wahis_2/public/wahid.php/Diseaseinformation/WI

This isn't a problem that disease control can eradicate anytime soon, think decades . This is a disease that can survive meat curing processes and infect wild or domestic pigs that might be fed food scraps .
This is how African Swine Fever moved from Africa to Europe and Russia.

50
Geoff,  I think the Calif Air Resourses Board is proud of their new report , where we are as a measure of where we need to go.
I haven't gone into the report but the first two circle charts are interesting. We have good hydro resources and there are thousands
of acres of solar already installed. The report does include the CO2 emissions of imported electricity. Metal for imported cars? I don't know.


https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/inventory/data/data.htm

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