Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - jplotinus

Pages: [1] 2 3
1
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: October 03, 2017, 02:38:44 PM »
Maybe some of us could volunteer for one month shifts, so as to not be over committed.
I will do the last one until a decision is made.

For October 2, JAXA SIE comes in at 5,140,248 km2. Up by 48,036 km2.


If we are to continue the thread, either in present form or renamed, then we should also continue the information format of including a “ ___ lowest” statement as well.

I do not understand the rationale for locking the thread? Instead, I suggest, with respect, that the best way to thank Espen, with sincerity, is to continue the thread in as close to the same format as possible. As a group, we should just post up the data on a daily basis. There have been brief periods of time when Espen announced an absence. During each such episode, others posted up the data on an ad hoc basis.

Could we continue to do that?

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: September 30, 2017, 01:32:03 PM »
Well done from 1 to 101


3
Arctic sea ice / Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll
« on: September 24, 2017, 07:24:56 PM »
The JAXA extent minimum for 2017 was 4.47 million km2 on 9 September 2017.  So the correct bin in this poll was 4.25-4.5.

This means that 96.8 percent of the votes in this poll were too low, 2.4% were too high, and 0.8% were in the correct bin.  Moreover, the median of the votes in this poll was about 2.93 million km2, which is 1.54 million km2 too low.

Compare with previous years:



June 2013 poll:  99% of predictions were too low, 0% were too high
June 2014 poll:  98% too low, 0% too high
June 2015 poll:  73% too low, 18% too high
June 2016 poll:  91% too low, 3% too high (JAXA),  and 94% too low, 2% too high (NSIDC)

Thanks for pointing out the obvious. For 5 years in a row now the large majority of posters on this site have been wrong about the ice. This isn't random bias either, as they are always overestimating melt. It's past time for most people here to adjust for their bias and follow the data more closely.

Adjustment needed.  Truedat

4
4.47 as of 9/9/17. The end is near (maybe). 😯

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: September 09, 2017, 07:34:02 PM »
To date, only 3 of our 1310 members have looked at it.
You can make that 4 now.

5

But I'm not yet up to speed on use and interpretation of data. The learning curve may require some time.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 31, 2017, 09:09:16 PM »
What will 2017 do? Indeed. One more cyclone or storm bringing southerlies into, say, the Atlantic side of the Arctic, between Svalbard and FJL before it gets too cold, might push 2017 extent ⬇️ by a hefty amount of, say, 500kKm2. How about a week from now?


7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 freezing season
« on: August 29, 2017, 06:34:43 AM »
The inverted dipole that has seized the Arctic will be pulling air from the Atlantic/Asia and compacting the ice North of Barents, so I would expect more extent loses. But the winds across the Arctic become Northernlies at the broken ice edge of the Pacific side, where one would expect those sudden refreezes like last year would happen first. So who knows.

Yup. "Who knows"? A second small uptick per JAXA on 8/28.  😯

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 27, 2017, 05:27:27 PM »


SH: What IS the probability of being "gobsmacked"? :-)

There is 100% probability of me being gobsmacked if 2017 ends up in 1st place.  :o

I foresee a possible scenario that might bring on a gobsmack. Namely, a minimum after the  September equinox or possibly a new precedent for an October minimum. Smaller than average August extent losses are taking place in a context of low volume and of cooler temperatures. The low volume will continue. As it is already as cool as it has been in September in recent years, the only requirement here would be a continuation of the temperature level that is being experienced now, rather than a more normal decline. Put differently, because it is already cool above 80°N, it may simply continue to be the same in coming weeks as it is now. That could happen.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 26, 2017, 04:05:11 PM »
I'd be wary of characterizing 2017 as having "0" chance of going below 2012 minimum. Arctic sea ice does what it pleases, when it pleases, with no regard for human calculus.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 freezing season
« on: August 25, 2017, 08:31:57 PM »
Given that frazil ice can start to form when air temps are down to -6 C, we are not far off that figure according to nullschool at 85N 77W.

Alert, at the north coast and of Ellesmere, is now experiencing below 0° temps on a daily basis, but not yet down to -6°
Since the Arctic summer has been 'cool', I wonder whether the autumn will revert to mean by being relatively warmer?

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 freezing season
« on: August 24, 2017, 06:13:04 PM »
According to GFS, the freezing season should start next week in parts of the Canadian archipelago.

Night temperatures of -10C will be expected around Baffin Island.

What is source for -10° temps "around Baffin Island"? Weather forecast for Clyde River, which is at middle of east coast of Baffin, has temps above 0° throughout next nine days, with highs above 10° for some of them.

Thanks for the correction and sorry for the confusion. I mean Ellesmere Island not Baffin. Looked mostly at the station Eureka and the GFS 2m temp forecast from GFS.

Baffin is indeed very far from freezing conditions at this stage. Sorry again.

GFS has backed off now a little but still freezing weather expected from next week. Will be exciting to see the first new ice of the year.

Thanks for your clarification. In 2017, Arctic sea ice extent has been as enigmatic as ever. I think all any of us can do with confidence is observe and try to interpret as best we can. The sea ice is telling us something, for sure.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 freezing season
« on: August 23, 2017, 04:45:17 PM »
According to GFS, the freezing season should start next week in parts of the Canadian archipelago.

Night temperatures of -10C will be expected around Baffin Island.

What is source for -10° temps "around Baffin Island"? Weather forecast for Clyde River, which is at middle of east coast of Baffin, has temps above 0° throughout next nine days, with highs above 10° for some of them.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: August 19, 2017, 09:50:50 PM »
I don't believe that any 'Communist States' had any stake in the Arctic, even back in 1994.
Can you elaborate ? You think Russia didn't want an Exclusive Economic Zone 200 miles off their coast, or did you mean to say that Russia was not a Communist State in 1994 ?

Canada has been concerned with the pollution of what she considers to be her northern waterways, while the US has always maintained that these are open to all.

ALL waterways, especially the ones more than 12 miles of the coast are open to all.
That's the whole idea behind UNCLOS, and it counts for the NW passage and the Northern Sea Route as well :
http://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/unclos_e.pdf

Canada could, in theory, claim the Northwest Passage an internal waterway. Or, if shot down on that claim, some portions are <12 miles in width, thus giving Oh! Canada a second jurisdictional claim.


14
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: August 12, 2017, 06:58:26 PM »
Near 85°N, melt pond or polynya(?) formed between August 11 and August 12 (needs click):


15
The jaxa August 10th decline was small(ish), despite the PAC. The factors I am relying on to foretell the minimum no longer support the extreme low of 1.75-2.25. It's beginning to become clearer that 2017 will group with 2007,2015-16. I think 2017 will come in as the new runner-up, at just below 4.00.

16
Less than 2 days, to make your vote or change it!  ;)

The PAC over the Chukchi-Beaufort region has been churning non-stop for just about all of August from what I can gather. Further, it also appears the CAA garlic press may be due for an onslaught of flushing winds over the course of the next few days; as the poll period closes.

To reach the extremely low level of 1.75-2.25m km2 that I've been voting for, the cyclones will need to remain as persistent as they have been and the thinness of the ice overall will have to precipitate unprecedented extent declines during the remainder of August.

I don't think the conditions will be extreme enough to cause unprecedented losses, but I will wait one more day before coming to my sen...err, casting a vote. 😜



17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 10, 2017, 05:10:00 PM »
PAC near Utqiagvik


18
...and the loss on August 4th was ~140k

19
For now I'll stick with season-long, low guess of 1.75-2.25. That's been my story, so may as well stick with it until just prior to close of poll. 😜

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 31, 2017, 05:26:46 AM »
Id imagine its at 6.64m around about at the moment

Conservatively guess it dropped to 6.7m on day 1
And 6.64m on day 2.

Could be worse as pacific has had a bit of a bite.

Too conservative. 6.57 was reached on day 2 (29th July).

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 30, 2017, 01:21:48 PM »
Rob

Thank you for clear, cogent analysis. And, are you going to officially lower your 5.4km2 prediction? 🤔

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 23, 2017, 11:59:15 PM »
Explorer expects NP to be open water this summer. Plans to sail to the pole in a yacht.

http://www.pressreader.com/new-zealand/the-dominion-post/20170724/282089161833092

A dangerous undertaking.

Much safer flying there or are these parallel (military?) contrails of the 21st July North of Greenland just a mapping artifact?


-9°

Contrails like those you spotted are common in the high Arctic and often show up on worldview. Sometimes they form X patterns, other times they are 1000+km in length. I know of no source that assesses the environmental or weather impacts of Arcticcontrails. If posters are aware of linkable articles on Arctic contrails, I'd be much obliged for posting of such links. I'm not here speaking about the conspiracy theory links. Those are easy to find.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 21, 2017, 10:56:04 PM »
Interesting to compare July 21 date for 2017 and 2013 near North Pole, Worldview imagery.
2013 appears to be worse:

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 21, 2017, 06:43:57 PM »
I'm aware of expressions of 'surprise' that Jaxa extent declines have been able to stay at or near the century drop level during peak melt period. Mainly, weather factors in the CAB, where most of the sea ice is to be found, and also areas like Beaufort that have not melted out as much as was the case in 2016 at this time, are relied on to suggest smaller declines are coming.

As I see it, the weather in the CAB is not cold enough to cause extent increases during late July on one hand, but vulnerable ice in Baffin looks poised to go poof literally on a daily basis now, on the other.

Wip's Baffin extent chart shows a 300k piggy bank extending north and south of Clyde River. It does not appear that it is unseasonably cold in Clyde River, where temps near 10° are likely to occur on a consistent basis in coming days. I expect Baffin extent losses to contribute to more century drops.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 18, 2017, 06:58:02 PM »
It appears to me there is "piggy-bank" ice in the Beaufort that will help 2017 keep its place as a top contender for lowest September sie minimum. Compared to the three prior years of 2014-2016, there's a greater extent in the Beaufort this year, but the ice there appears poised to disappear sooner rather than later based on eyeballing this worldview compilation:

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 18, 2017, 01:26:43 PM »
Stall? Worldview reveals few, if any, impediments to an open Northern route as of 18th July.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 12, 2017, 03:47:51 PM »
Those ice floes turned out to be bigger than they first seemed -- as I should have expected, since most of the volume is under the waterline. Here's the dragon of Koojessee Inlet:

Summer fashion in Iqaluit, yes? ☺️

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 11, 2017, 08:02:00 PM »
ESS near Wrangle and Pevek has not changed much in either extent or area from July 1 to 11, though warm(ish) temps >10°C are forecast all this week at Pevek.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 07, 2017, 06:42:27 PM »
Here's a candidate for longest observed contrail.
It extends across the Beaufort Sea from a point north (approximately) of Tuktoyaktuk (NU Canada), to a point north (approximately) of Prudhoe Bay (AK USA).

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 07, 2017, 04:07:52 PM »
2016 and 2017 extent measures have been running neck/neck throughout June and into July. 2016 ended up 2nd lowest, jaxa. A visual comparison of worldview for three areas--Beaufort, Laptev/ESS and Kara--show that the two years as of this date had similar demarcations of loss in Beaufort, Laptev/ESS, but very different ones in Kara. There's a lot of ice left in Kara this year that will likely serve to add 10-15k of daily losses starting virtually any day now, thus assuring that 2017 will continue to keep pace with the 2016 rate of decline, through July, at least. That Kara ice is not going to survive.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 07, 2017, 03:03:48 PM »
Rob

A 5.41m km2 September minimum implies an average decline of <50k/day between now and mid-September. We have not seen losses that would support an average of that low a magnitude as yet.

32
I stand with the outliers--1.75-2.25--in this JAXA poll, based on low volume and the possibility of a GAC at the wrong time/place for ice preservation.

In the NSIDC poll, on the other hand, I'm going with "past is prologue" where this year will be like 2016 (4.75+\-), by the NSIDC method of calculation.

Consistency is nowhere listed as a requirement for voting in these polls, right? 😲

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 30, 2017, 06:17:45 PM »
A chunk of ice off northeast tip of Severny Island has gone missing today, perhaps because of strong northwest wind, as reported for Dikson. So Baffin and Hudson may have some company in tomorrow's report.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 29, 2017, 10:46:19 PM »
Utqiagvik webcam appears to be down. Is there soot in the air there?

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 28, 2017, 10:17:01 PM »
Tic Tac Toe over the Beaufort Sea, or does 'X' mark the spot?
😯

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 26, 2017, 09:12:51 PM »
The fact is, 2017 has the lowest volume as of this date. All else that might be said about the volume metric entails a bias or an emphasis that departs from objectivity.
I don't agree. All Rubikscube says is there is another metric, the rate of volume decline, and this one has been in the low side since May. Objectively, this is correct, and not wanting to see it is biased thinking. There was a lot of snow in the NH, a lot of coldness associated and it really showed.
Said so, the melting has really gained momentum with the heat dragged by the storm, didn't it? Prospects are not good.
EDIT. Actually I would say that the rate of volume decline has not been smaller, but has been delayed by weeks, as delayed as the snow cover melt in the NH has been, as was clearly shown in the Rutgers maps. The thing is: the solstice comes at the same date always, give or take one day, so that delay means for sure more ice in September

Your edit suggests that you do not agree with Ribikscube, though you don't actually say that. I would add that I do not consider Rubikscube as having introduced a metric of rate of volume decline because Rubikscube has chosen to limit the field of data comparison to only a handful of years, precisely in a manner that might be seen as a bias in favor of predicting a high, non-record, minimum.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 26, 2017, 06:22:49 PM »
Rubikscube says:
"Every year since 2012 the same thing happens, some people fall into the optimist bias trap and start looking for confirmation that this is going to be another record breaker instead of trying to analyze the data objectively."

The external reality of Arctic sea ice is neither optimistic nor pessimistic with respect to the ongoing melt season. Thus, it is not objective to minimize the significance of the fact that 2017 has the lowest volume metric, still; and among the lowest extent/area readings in the satellite era. Objectivity mandates a report on data without bias one way or the other.

The fact is, 2017 has the lowest volume as of this date. All else that might be said about the volume metric entails a bias or an emphasis that departs from objectivity.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: June 26, 2017, 02:10:31 PM »
Tame? Perhaps, but by the 'eye ball,' it looks like 2017 may have moved into 2nd place with that 186k loss during the last 3 days.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 21, 2017, 07:36:32 PM »
Bluish you ask?
Tiksi, on the Laptev coast near Lena delta is unquestionable bluish:

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 17, 2017, 02:44:41 PM »
What just happened in the Kara Sea?

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 16, 2017, 01:33:07 PM »
I was looking at this image because of the interesting colors in the Bering Strait.   But then noticed the contrails in the lower left corner.

http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/npp-gina-alaska-truecolor-images/2017_06_15_14_38_jd166

Jay

Those contrails are large enough to completely shroud the Diomede islands in what would appear to be fog. At present, it is also foggy in Utqiagvik. Worldview of the Bering Strait does not show as many contrails, but does show some. Further, worldview shows wispy clouds that could be the remnant of the contrail blasts shown in the image posted by Jay.

In addition to impressive imagery, the contrails that are being spotted raise questions as to whether or not they cause environmental impacts; and, if so, what are the impacts.



42
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: June 15, 2017, 02:14:36 PM »
looks like two bears to me – right? What is the dark line in the sky though?

I'm not sure if your query about the dark line in the sky is rhetorical or not? For the most part, questions about persistent contrails go unanswered because no one has any reliable information about them. Jet engines were engineered not to produce harmful exhaust as far back as the 1970's. Contrails that last for hours, spread and cause haziness over large parts of the sky do not appear to be harmless, but nothing very specific or exacting is ever said about them, so far as I know and I've searched.

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 14, 2017, 11:29:34 PM »
Open water visible offshore from Utqiagvik


44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 14, 2017, 10:47:48 PM »
Tiksi is in the path of the cyclone. Folks there may need to hunker down a bit.


45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 14, 2017, 01:19:21 PM »
Good view yesterday of Alaska looking into the beaufort. Still some snow cover on the extreme northern coast. Assuming it melts out this week that will still be a good week or two later than many recent years. Lakes and ponds on the land are likely to stay frozen for several days yet which can only be a good thing as it modifies air masses moving over them.

That large crack in the fast ice is located close to Utqiagvik and might become visible in the webcam there as open water if  the crack widens or if additional fissures open up.

There she goes.

57 hour loop

Imagery courtesy of the University of Alaska at Fairbanks
http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/npp-gina-alaska-truecolor-images

Webcam view:


46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 13, 2017, 07:07:23 PM »
Good view yesterday of Alaska looking into the beaufort. Still some snow cover on the extreme northern coast. Assuming it melts out this week that will still be a good week or two later than many recent years. Lakes and ponds on the land are likely to stay frozen for several days yet which can only be a good thing as it modifies air masses moving over them.

That large crack in the fast ice is located close to Utqiagvik and might become visible in the webcam there as open water if  the crack widens or if additional fissures open up.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: June 13, 2017, 04:00:06 PM »
Espen

Are you ok? Is everything good with you?

🤔

48
<snip, it really has been enough now; N.>

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: February 28, 2017, 01:43:49 PM »
Better hope the Planet X, Nibiru, doomsday folks don't see the 2/27 o-buoy 14 image.
If they do, they are going to have a field day of doomsday prediction, I'm afraid.
😳

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: Svalbard
« on: February 06, 2017, 02:06:01 PM »
Sun up Today:


Pages: [1] 2 3