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Messages - Gray-Wolf

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1
Hi El Cid!

I'm certainly not looking for any 'Beast from the East'.... enjoying the mild winter so far thank you very much!.... but if the Polar Night Jet is disrupted this late into the season will it have time to recover before the final warming?

If what occurs is a weak and unruly PNJ for the rest of its life then will it not drive impacts across the Arctic Basin?

I'm taking it that the various high temp records we've been seeing around our hemisphere is partly due to an orderly PNJ keeping the cold trapped where it ought to be and not 'plunging' into lower lats?

With the Sun on the rise in early Feb (for most of the basin?) any swapping out of the cold for a Warm Air Advection could aid an early start to the melt season there?

As an aside how rare is it to have the Southern hemisphere see a SSW followed by the Northern Hemisphere ending its winter on one?

2
Talking of SSW's, GFS is now punting for an SSW of our Vortex after Jan 30th

This could bring some cold airs down into our temperate regions with the 'beast from the east' still fresh in the minds of many of us!

Watch this space!

4
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: January 16, 2020, 05:14:43 PM »
I openly worried , through the noughties, just how folk would climb down from their lazy acceptance of the climate change denial they were being inundated with?

I guess that we're seeing how 'The Many' can be expected to react now?

Rather than accept their error they seek to compound it by believing ever more fantastical reasons why they have been right all along....

I do not believe we can expect any aid from such quarters? (once the world finally decides to act with the sense of urgency our Crisis demands)

Sadly the whacked out politics of both UK & USA appear to mirror all of this with supporters of the Lunatics they placed in power unable to see anything wrong with their choice for President/Prime Minister?

Ho Hum.....


5
With the 'polar night Jet' (polar vortex) looking so 'orderly' this year (for once!);

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-44.87,85.69,368

 we might be seeing what we should be used to by now (Winters really began 'milding' in the 80's here in the UK?) had we not seen the impacts of both the Ozone hole & Asian Dimming via their rapid industrialisation mess around with global circulation from Strat through the Trop?

Instead we became used to 'cold zones' or areas frequently seeing Polar Plunges and 'mild zones' seeing frequent Warm Air Advection (WAA)?

This time ,with the cold pegged in the Arctic, 'normal' temps are able to maintain over most of the temperate regions?

Problem comes in late Feb/early March when the Polar night jet collapses at winters end and cold flows South/warmth heads North. Will their be a marked increase in the potential difference between air masses and so increased extreme weathers where they meet?

Tornado ally in the US sees a cold polar flow off the rockies meeting with hot humid airs from the Gulf of Mexico

In N. Europe we have a band of lands , from the UK in the west to the far N of Italy, topping the world stats for 'Funnel cloud' formation over the year.

Should this region see the potential difference between opposing air masses increase (African Plumes meeting with Polar Plunges?) should we not expect the 'formation' of Funnel clouds to become 'stronger' and more, higher speed, Tornadoes form from them?

If this 'mild' (so far) winter, in our NW European area, continues then should we be expecting quite a busy spring once the mixing of Polar/tropical commences?

Might we not be seeing some quite viscous storms developing (with all the extra water a warmer atmosphere gives them?) with large hail/frequent lightning & tornado formation?

6
Consequences / Re: The WAVY Jet Stream
« on: January 15, 2020, 05:03:32 PM »
I think it was the year the QBO refused to reverse (2014?) that we saw our Polar Jet cross the equator and end up over S. Africa?

I wonder how long it takes for our hemisphere to flip from a 3 cell configuration to a single cell configuration (with jet streaks at points around the hemisphere?)?

Won't happen for the whole hemisphere.
If it happens, it will be only over the oceans.

The 'failing' of the Polar jet allows for both Arctic plunges into areas covered by the Sub tropical Jet but also near direct transport of more Tropical air masses North

There has been increasing in such events/impacts since the turn of the century with record snow in areas not accustomed to such and unseasonable warmth over the dark of the polar night in the far north.

Will not the 'washing out' of distinct air mass types lead to a further lessening of the Jets and their speeds at height?

7
Consequences / Re: The WAVY Jet Stream
« on: January 15, 2020, 01:28:10 PM »
I think it was the year the QBO refused to reverse (2014?) that we saw our Polar Jet cross the equator and end up over S. Africa?

I wonder how long it takes for our hemisphere to flip from a 3 cell configuration to a single cell configuration (with jet streaks at points around the hemisphere?)?

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: Near Real Time Sea Ice Volume
« on: January 14, 2020, 09:04:19 PM »
I think we need be mindful that 'melt season' does not only consist of 'in situ' melt but also involves 'export'?

9
To me the 2020's look like the decade the world really begins to see the extremes in climate ramp up

The best thing that could happen in this decade would be to have multiple, unprecedented weather catastrophes hit the developed countries over and over again. These catastrophes need to result in substantial loss of life and widespread destruction of property and infrastructure, so severe as to cause a permanent shift in habitability of vulnerable regions.

It is very sad that this is likely the only thing to get people to wake up and all become Greta Thunbergs.

Sadly I have to agree with you

We still have too many in the developed world sleepwalking into this crisis courtesy of Paid Climate Change Deniers (and their backers?)

Until such folks are jolted into their 'Fight or Flight' response we will just allow the corps/govt's to continue to compound our peril (& that of all the other inhabitants of this World?) so sadly we need such 'big events' that show us all that this Crisis is real & happening all around us and will impact each and every one of us

10
Well, here in the UK, 2019 saw new record high temps set for December and back in February.... only January to see a new record high and we have the set!

I worry that the north will see a similar spring/summer to Australia's spring/summer as the flip in naturals/China's particulate/sulphate clean up since 2014, digs in?

Last years high global temps, over a La Nada year, doesn't have me to happy about the next Nino year and the temps it will drive? (breaking the global high temp the last 'Super Nino' set?)

The last (Super) Nino saw the 1.5c above 1850 temps fall and the Siberian caves (in the permafrost) tell us that the permafrost goes at 1.5c above pre-industrial temps (and stalactite formation recomences?) which hints at an ice free Arctic (allowing the warmer temps to impose themselves?)

In its turn this will lead to CO2/CH4 emmisions as the vegetation locked in the permafrost begins to rot

To me the 2020's look like the decade the world really begins to see the extremes in climate ramp up

11
Consequences / Re: Near Term Human Extinction
« on: January 06, 2020, 02:10:08 PM »
Sadly a think a combination of paid deniers and the human propensity for looking on the bright side means a lot of folk still have their 'fight or flight' response packed away when it really ought to be being deployed?

For too many years I have held the opinion that it will take a large climate event that is relatable for many of the developed world's population to fully embrace the scale of the issues in front of us?

I am not wishing harm to any person but I do think that the corps most responsible for our ills have also kept many blissfully unaware of both the peril they are in and the continuation of those corps in the behaviours that see us in this pickle?

Until the People rise up in opposition I fear it will be B.A.U. right up until the elites man their bunkers/silos......

12
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: December 30, 2019, 01:43:07 PM »
As I see things Ozz is second only to the USA in the amount of climate B.S. they've been fed this past 2 decades?

It is their 'expurgations' to the TAR documents that make them as wishy washy as we find them?

As long as they've got dirty coal to sell the 'top dogs' will be loathe to cross the deniers after filling them full of B.S. for so long?

Maybe the 'tops dogs' should be on their fiddles right now?.......

13
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: December 19, 2019, 06:46:48 PM »
Wednesday set another record.
Quote
Ryan Maue on Twitter: "Preliminary Australia continental high temperature was 107°F (41.7°C) Wednesday. That's the hottest on record, again. Data from Australia Bureau of Meteorology. I make maps.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1207333203578626048
Image below.

Ozzy Summer begins this weekend does it not?......

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« on: August 23, 2019, 06:29:59 PM »
For these past three decades of battling to have the 'data/facts' heard above the drone of the Denier it has become amply clear that;

1/ The 'Denier' won and put us beyond avoiding AGW issues and into a time where we ought expect 'Black Swan Events' driving climate cascades that will impact all

2/ Humans are hard wired only to 'react' to clear and present danger to their own lives.....Fight or flight (I know there are exceptions but then do they not go to proving the 'rule' true??)

So I am now ,grudgingly, of the opinion that we need a global climate 'Hit' to raise the 'awareness' of the folk up to the dangers we all now exist within?

Our job (those who fought the good fight these past decades?) is to be there 'For The Many' when they suddenly realise the peril they face?

To 'bring them up to speed' on just what we have unleashed and might 'expect' to see?

A B.O.E. may well prove to be such an event that , unlike the Brazilian rainforest, will not spend 16 days effectively missing from the MSM until 'Social Media' (US??) forces them to run a piece on it?

I know it is a dower outlook but there you have it!


15
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: August 23, 2019, 12:43:23 AM »
So where do the 'well represented' ? ( in the paleo record?) 'Step ups' in global temps fit into all of this?

Where do the 'unique' responses that a 'warming' (at such a rate?) must bring? (Black Swan Events?)

Surely it's not about "How we are progressing" but " How we 'could' progress?"

Do we need to be 'hair triggered' for the first signs if an 'unexpected uptick' in rate of global temps?

Or do we know from past global experiences of such GHG increases, over such a short period, to feel 'self assured' that we got this?

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 22, 2019, 04:56:17 PM »
O/T

Humans are hardwired for 'Fight or Flight', nothing else cuts it

Those seeking the first big 'climate hit' wish that this will be enough to shake 'The Many' into meaningful action before we ALL pay the price for the Capitalist catastrophe?

End of

17
Science / Re: Global Forest Watch
« on: August 22, 2019, 12:52:07 PM »
I used to think it would be the drying and dying of the Amazon, combined with lightning strikes, that would lead to this scale of fire....... I thought 'Man' too aware to ever be so stupid???

18
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: August 19, 2019, 02:01:29 PM »


Quote from: Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen
Greenland is not for sale. Greenland is not Danish. Greenland belongs to Greenland. I strongly hope that this is not meant seriously.

Why does TRump need to control the lands close to the east of the USA?

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 09, 2019, 01:56:20 PM »
At some point they will become more accurate.

O/T I know but 'how'?

We see the trop/strat boundary doing all kind of weird stuff these days that none of the models incorporates

Until we 'flip' and a new 'stable regime' emerges we really do not know enough of the changes to be accurate in our modelling?

Look at some recent 'Canes and their unexpected 'bombing' over 18 to 24 hr periods? Surely we know enough about 'Canes to forecast their behaviours?

Then the introduction of lightning over the Arctic? That isn't even supposed to be possible due to the shallow trop over the Arctic?

Trust HP forecast as they are slow evolving & slow decaying but cyclones out at day 6????

Rant over....

20
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: August 05, 2019, 02:24:35 PM »
Sadly I'm sure there are folk out there with both power and position enough to consider such sick daydreams as 'potentiaal answers'?

To have arrived where we are shows (me at least?) such folk have already put a major stick in the spokes of the wheel that is climate change meaningful action?

I worry that their 'Get out of jail free' is leaving us all to knock lumps out of each other until there is a more 'manageable' number remaining?

Maybe I go too far in my cogitations some times?

21
Consequences / Re: Decline in insect populations
« on: August 02, 2019, 01:07:31 PM »
On a more positive note we , here in the UK, are in a bit of a 'Painted Lady' invasion!

Numbers were up in spring/early summer in the parts of Europe they come from so we are in a 'decadal' spike in numbers

My buddleia is earning its nickname this summer!!!

22
I think our respect for Neven , esp. at this time when we are entrusted with his site, should be paramount in all our contributors minds!

For him to come back and find his efforts reduced to some parody of a noughties climate forum is too horrid to think on.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 26, 2019, 01:58:31 PM »
Guys,guys!

We know why Neven is away and you want him to come back to this???

Take a chill pill, kiss and make up .and lets move on please?

24
Consequences / Re: The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event
« on: July 15, 2019, 02:55:07 PM »
Any BOE will allow 'normal ocean processes' to resume across the Arctic Ocean with the total loss of the Halocline as swell/waves mix out the remaining areas of deep Halocline that used to aid the Ocean in re-freeze/ice retention.

There is already plenty of heat in the basin to enable year round ice free but the Halocline places a barrier between the surface and that heat.

With the last of the Halocline washed out what is to stop further mixing of the ocean's stratification?

And what of the thickness of the atmosphere above the basin?

Do we see that thicken and so allow more lightning inside the high Arctic? With most of the wildfires being started by lightning such an uptick will surely increase these events too?

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 13, 2019, 01:01:29 PM »
I think some for are not considering how close we came to record lows most years post 2012?

With so much ice of a similar thickness there must come a time when huge losses occur as this thickness of ice goes in one big run of losses?

Maybe the recent years were just a few weeks short of the high melt that would have been enough to see significant losses from this mass of sub 2m FY ice?

This year , and the 'melt momentum' it has accrued, might have enough momentum to see this 'bulk' area of similar thickness fail come mid Aug (without a storm to help it along!)

I'm waiting to see if ice starts disappearing from the central mass as much of that ,by winter's end, was thinner ice?

Anyhoos, the portly madame hasn't eve entered the building yet never mind started her vocal exercises.......

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 12, 2019, 12:34:43 PM »
Hi Nightvid Cole!

Bottom melt can do fantastic damage to ice as we saw north of Greenland in Aug 2012 but worse than that is when floes drop below 100m and 'side melt' exceeds 'bottom melt' in the taking of ice.

With the pack moving toward ever smaller floes (due to winter conditioning) we are approaching a time where, for the same amount of energy available, we see greater melt.

I worry we are moving toward a point where the ice will not be able to withstand an 'average' weather year?

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 08, 2019, 09:01:10 PM »
When we see DMI 80N lift off that 'latent heat of fusion' dictated line it's time to really worry!!!!

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 08, 2019, 08:37:04 PM »
One year was always going to highlight the 'slippage' in our measures since 2012?

This is looking like the year?

For those left scratching their heads (should this occur 'this year'?), trust your eyes in future don't just glue yourself to the numbers!!!

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 05, 2019, 10:06:07 PM »
I do think we need to hold onto the fact that this is not the 2012 pack?

The move toward an ice free basin did not stop in 2012 and those conditions ( thinner ice,younger ice,smaller floes,early open waters, warmer ice) have continued to evolve in the intervening period?

I tend to think the same energy , mirroring 2012, over the basin today would lead to greater losses from the current basin ice?

'Dodged a cannonball ' could have been 50cm of ice over a wide area of the basin?.

Could today's melt season have already imparted the energy to shift that 50cm?

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 26, 2019, 01:45:29 PM »
As I do the rounds of climate sites I keep running into folk comparing 07'/2012 with today?

The melt dynamics of those packs were surely different from today's pack?

07' still had paleocryistic ice in its mix at ice min!

2012 still had plenty of aged ice in the Beaufort gyre?

2019 has seen its best ice drained away before the onset of melt season proper (both via Fram and Nares?) and late formed FY ice replace the losses.

This years ice will have differing characteristics to other years due to the ongoing conditioning toward a seasonal ice pack in the Arctic?

I reckon that late July should see the end of all the ice that entered melt season at 2m thick or below. If this proves right that's a lot of ice blinking our around the same week just under the melt momentum we have so far amassed.

It is looking like a nasty end to melt season this year!


31
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: June 21, 2019, 12:52:36 PM »
Hi Grixm!

It's not just the temps though!

In the UK we already have storm forecasts out for the period?

Seeing as NW Europe ( from Ireland through to east Germany and the North of Italy) is ground zero for funnel cloud formation I have always worried that 'steeping up' the energy in the atmosphere will allow more and more of the funnels to touch down?

Tornados are impossible to see in the Paleo record so we just do not know if in past epochs where temps were similar we did see such in our region?

Even though most structures are solid brick/concrete there is still a large potential for injury/loss of life from glass/debris should an F3 ,or above?, hit major population areas?

Anyhow, apart from flooding , giant hail and lightning strikes I will be looking out for reports of funnel cloud/tornado events.

Already I've heard one agency moot issuing a tornado warning for Wiltshire on Tuesday!!!

Time alone will tell the tale!


32
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: June 17, 2019, 02:44:20 PM »
The fact that Yamal has such extensive natural gas reserves would suggest that there is a reserve of 'free methane' under that region at least. The question has to be 'can it leak'? The blowouts in 2015 showed us some methane was close to the surface. The extensive faulting below the permafrost would also suggest there is opportunity for 'migration' of the gas if a pathway to atmosphere was created by surface melt of the cap?

Maybe some of those '7,000+' 'Pingo like structures',that heaved up over the summer of 2016,will erupt this year and bring us our answer?

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 17, 2019, 12:50:22 PM »
I'd tend to agree F.O.O.W., the 'collapse and spread' , well 'fragment and spread' messes with the numbers as ice flows into open water and forces it to be counted as 'ice covered as 15%+ now holds ice.

Those ice edges will quickly blink out as the warmed ocean melts these stray floes.

Sadly the breakup will lead to floes being at the mercy of wind and wave and dome peripheral sea areas have been warming since near season's start sdo 'kill zones' for wandering ice must now be building?

Upthread the BOE calcs now need over 100km a day for the rest of the season to become a BOE.

I might find this 'supposed slowdown' in ice loss as doing for the chances of such and event this season but then if 70% of the 'measured' peripheral ice is merely an illusion due to the shortfalls of the 15%+ measuring system then that 'loss required' will be less than what is currently posted. On top of that if ice levels go really low then the 'end' of similar thickness floes will lead to some huge loss days and the flip side of the 15% or more with isolated floes being ignored in the measure?

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 15, 2019, 09:51:00 PM »
I have to wonder if the Neven of 2012 would be as relaxed about what appears (to some long term watchers?) to be setting up in the Basin?

I wonder if such a Beastie as that would have looked at what we have learned about 'bottom melt' end of the season's shift to more LP dominated conditions (after such wide open ocean areas have milked the solar all season?) with such a calm and controlled appearance?


35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 14, 2019, 11:49:09 AM »
But the ice along Greenlands North shore to the pole does not need to be melted in-situ guys?

We know its happy to 'float off' and the removal of near all of the old landfast ice over recent years means there are no 'grab points' anymore to slow the ice once in motion?

Put a big low over the Kara side and keep pressure high over Greenland/NE Canada and we could wave goodbye to that ice as it heads into the N Atlantic?

36
We're all aware of the old currency Klondike but what of the tweeks the last 2 decades have placed over that mask?

The 'stormy' bottom melt end of the season that we've become accustomed to must have its teleconnections further South?

Having young children over the time of the UK's run of 'washout summers' made me acutely aware that as soon as they were going back to school ,post summer hols, the weather miraculously cleared up and gave us a lovely end to summer?

I'd reckon that this 'second bite of the cherry' has now moved back into late July/early Aug as the Arctic produces its own cyclones and so allowed HP to migrate further south....... and over us here in NW Europe.

I'm hoping this will pan out this year and give us a blazing end to summer?

37
Hi Lumenkraft!!

The appearance of the low up in Kara, and its drift into Barentsz, gives me some hope of us breaking this awful run of cool/wet for us!

If the Basin stirs on our side then it should have some knock on impacts further south and maybe that includes closing that loop and settling our bits of Europe down into something like 'Summer'?

38
I don't know much about meteorology, but this just doesn't look right!

If only this 'oxbow' contortion of the jet could become cut off leaving the jet far to the North and us under a Big ,Fat, blocked High with hot temps & clear skies?

I'll set my mind to joining those two loose ends of the Jet and give us a second half of summer to be dreamed of now the land has had a good watering!!!!

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 10, 2019, 12:30:22 PM »
Will the Mt Sinabung Volcano in Indonesia that just erupted affect the melt season this year?

https://climatecrocks.com/2019/06/09/cheering-the-volcano/

The three-month eruption in Hawaii last year was thought to release so much SO2 as to affect Cali. weather this year.  People don't realize we don't need a 'SUPER-VOLCANO' to create 'years-without-summer' as did happen three to four times in the last three hundred years alone.  Yeah, Climate change may be bad... but a single 'non-super-volcano' could wipe us out practically overnight - At any time!

The answer , apparently, is No! ?

NASA AIRS sat did not see enough SO2 in the column to impact climate?

40
Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: June 05, 2019, 01:49:47 PM »
They are crucial for society to function.

Thanks for the good laugh Bbr.  ;D

For those trapped in , or clinging to, the current system their only faux comfort comes from the old 'if you shared all global wealth out it would still end up in the same hands' BS

There is a mentally deficient side to most who profit under this system and the proof of such is the state we find ourselves in today and the continued obfuscation of those who wield global Capital?

Change is coming whether we like it or not and our choice is either to sycophant to the elite in the hope that they will change their spots and be beneficent toward the brown nosers or we organise , unify and take matters into our own hands.

It will necessitate great changes for those who hoard Global Capital though, but then so will a dying Planet whether they believe it or not!

41
Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: June 05, 2019, 12:14:08 PM »
Greta & XR have done , in a matter of months, what many of us posting here fought hard to try & achieve over 2 decades of attempting to raise awareness/battle deniers.

I am content they arrived on the scene & have spoken , in my language, about the scale of the threats now descending on us all.

If the elites are involved here it is in the kind of belittling of these guys efforts we see above!

Effective action means reigning in/ending global Capitalism in its current form & that includes 'money'

I'd always thought that the paid deniers were trying merely to enable the FF industry to maximise their profits. Now I see it was to push back the inevitable move towards a more 'socialist in outlook' planet

This negates the wealth & power the elites currently wield

Thing is Global Socialism had already begun to gain ground both in the U.S. & Europe ( and again the MSM neglected to report/inform on that cultural shift among both young and old.......odd that eh?) so the onset of global calls for realistic action to combat our climate crisis signals the end game for the elite in their current form?

There is no accident in the rate of increase in inequality this past 20 years as the global elite try to hoover up all of the last bits of available wealth from nation states , the poor & middle classes in preparation for their 'bug out' as we face a climate crisis that would have been avoided had we acted 30 years ago ( even 20 years ago when the elites made their decision to let us burn?) but we all saw what we saw. A concerted effort to pooh pooh any person raising climate concerns and the installation of the 'false consensus' which demanded equal representation for denier & scientist alike.

We either 'arise like lions from sleep' (200 yr anniversary of 'Peterloo' this year) or we are done.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 04, 2019, 02:01:55 PM »
Again I believe that this year weill see less ice (extent/area) but that the clunky way we measure extent/area will mean we see little change in the numbers even if the ice cover is 30% reduced in that grid square?

That drop to less than 15% cover, in a summer warmed ocean ,really does mean the ice will melt our entirely in that grid!

The extra open water is the new 'melt ponds' with the early opened ocean becoming 'kill zones' for ice in late melt season.

Let us see how much open water there is by months end and where it is positioned?

'Bottom melt' end of the season will become ever more impacting as open water warms ever more over mid melt season and so takes ever more 'rump ice'?

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 28, 2019, 11:30:59 AM »
As I see it the past 3 or 4 years have ended with a lot of ice that would not stand 3 weeks of further melt?

If we see lots of energy poured into the pack this year we may not see huge drops as there will still be ice left after the energy has shaved off the top surfaces?

It will be Aug before we see what the 'melt momentum' has meant for the rump of the ice as we approach min?

Again the unrepresentative 15% or more will plump up numbers in the central area but our eyes will give us a differing view of just what is left?

44
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: May 17, 2019, 05:16:13 PM »
... meaning with the next El Niño we might 'upgrade' into the 1,5˚ realm?

I think our ,UK, Met office has already said that 1.5C will be breached by 2023 i.e. when the next Nino comes through?

45
Consequences / Re: World of 2030
« on: May 08, 2019, 08:55:51 PM »
Anyone plotting the doubling time period for sea level rise?

The first few doublings don't matter much but further into the 'doublings' things get a bit crazy!

If we are now less than 8 years for 'melt' doubling occurring I'm worried!

I know we passed 'thermal expansion' a few years back so we must be , by now, eating into 'doubling rates'?

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 04, 2019, 04:53:36 PM »
I hope we all remember that after 2007 Serreze looked at 'perfect melt storms' of export and melt for any 'cycle' and found a ten to twenty year return period for the synoptic.

The two prior to 07' showed a 10 year return period.

Since 2017 we have been in the 'return period' for such an event so the sight of HP dominance and strong di-pole has me a tad twitchy!

Have we altered atmospheric patterns to the point that the 'perfect melt storm' synoptic no longer exists or are we seeing the basin settle into the patterns needed for it to return?

I have maintained,for over a decade now,that such a return would be one way for us to see the B.O.E. appear early (before it becomes a norm) is it this year?

47
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: May 02, 2019, 11:47:35 AM »
British Parliament Declares 'Climate Change Emergency'   
https://dw.com/en/british-parliament-declares-climate-change-emergency/a-48568627

Lawmakers have approved a motion requiring the government to make proposals to "restore the UK's natural environment." The move comes after protesters demonstrated for days, causing road closures and transit chaos.


The measure was passed as an opposition motion, using a procedure the ruling party typically ignores, and has no direct consequences for policy.

I sat through the debate and , true enough, by the end the right wing were mouthing support but demanding we don't break their glorious Capitalist neolib venture.....

The thing is ( fort me) it has finished the denialist right here in the UK by advising the non thinking public that we are in a climate emergency?

Some of the MSM clips of Corbyn contain some ( for the uninitiated) scary facts of where we are bound, should we remain inactive toward climate & Environment .

All in all a good day for folk of my persuasion.

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The rest / Re: The Empire vs Venezuela - News and History
« on: May 02, 2019, 11:21:19 AM »

"Imagine if you called a coup and nobody turned up........"

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Edit: I note that it is the Northwest corner of the RIS which currently buttresses the Byrd Glacier.

If I remember correctly a radar study of the shelf found 'rucking' mid shelf making it appear that when it 'grounded' ,last time, the forces from behind were so powerful as to drive these 'rucks'

As such I worry that there is a 'breaking point' (literally) in the shelf where back pressure leads to the contact with the ocean floor below being lost and so massive ,sudden , 'float off' of Ross followed by its rapid break up and melt.

For a shelf the size of France this is a real concern!

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Can't it be problematic,over there,when extreme cold/dry air masses run into warm/humid air masses?

Not talking precipitation events either!

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