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Messages - Gray-Wolf

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 29, 2020, 12:51:57 PM »
DMI80N

We have (well Me!) used DMI80N since 07' so we have a clear series of plots that have all been derived the same way so we measure apples with apples when we look at the plots across the years?

That said this 'uptick' on the plot was something I always feared seeing as, to me, it either indicates a very broad/powerful WAA able to cover most of that area for a short period or that the 'pegging of temps' that the latent heat of fusion provides (whilst there is ice to melt?) has broken down due to low ice cover in the region?

Which of the above is driving this uptick?

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 21, 2020, 12:41:20 PM »
There is 825,000km2 less ice than 2012 right now. 


That makes it really hard to compare 20 vs 12.

That means 2020 has open water the size  of TEXAS plus another 135,000km2 over 2012.

We know the losses over the GAC in 2012 and if 2020 has those losses (nearly?) 'in the bank' prior to the period those loses occurred in Aug then will we be looking favourite to set a new record low?

But then what if 2020 threw in its own GAC over Aug????

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 10, 2020, 12:37:44 PM »
I'm always left wondering what a little 'tweak', mid summer, would mean to the final figures...

How much ice ,in previous years, was on the cusp of melt out before refreeze spared it?

The advantage 2020 is calving out for itself over peak insolation might lead to some surprises when those bits that have been being spared (with only a few cm's left to melt?) succumb in late Aug and we see a very dispersed pack emerge.

4
I feel a big Thanks is due to you for your tireless efforts across the whole site Gerontocrat!

Without your data getting my 'daily overview' of the world would be a much longer exercise but be it Arctic,Antarctic,Greenland,Global you're there in spades!!!

5
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: June 29, 2020, 03:13:05 PM »
We are seeing reports out of the U.S. that the Covid-19 virus has undergone some changes/drift

I'm hearing that the surface protein spikes have increased 4 to 5 fold?

We also see the average age of folk infected drop from 63 to 33

This increase in the number of 'Grappling Hooks' would suggest more folk suffering infections that are more serious as more of the virii are able to infect cells?

If I also hear of any increase in cytokine storm impacts on these younger folk suffering infection (with their 'youthful' immune systems) I may have to start thinking that this is what we saw occurring in 1918 and not some 'recombination' of a 'drifted' clade from the camps in Europe with the original clade still circulating in the U.S. camps?

If 'Novel viruses' 'drift' in similar ways to improve their chances of breeding via infection then maybe Humans have a 'kill switch' built in to stop the spread of such a virus throughout the population?

Obviously younger folk, being more active & social, will tend to offer more opportunities to the virus to spread so maybe we evolved the 'cytokine storm' to poleaxe such folk & so limit their spreading of the virus?

6
Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: June 29, 2020, 01:29:10 PM »
The UK in recent years has done its best to catch up with the US in implementing "falta manutenção".

There is now loads of blah blah about developing resilience to combat the effects of climate change, and the opportunity for a post-covid green new deal. The dam failures are just another example of the way climate change is going to expose to daylight the rotten state of so much of that on which we depend.

The weekends downpours across Yorkshire, UK, again has me thinking of the issues our 'Flood Alleviation Works' will cause for the communities downstream of us that have had no such 'preparations' put in place for either increased rainfall events or the increase in flow that our works will feed into the channels downstream?

With the loss of the E.U. 'Regional Development Fund' to help with costs, augmented by the economic pressures our leaving the E.U. appears to have in store for us in the UK, I find it hard to envisage how works to beef up existing defences can occur...... no matter the needs of the communities impacted?

7
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: June 12, 2020, 04:43:09 PM »
New Study Reveals Cracks Beneath Giant, Methane Gushing Craters
https://cage.uit.no/2020/06/03/new-study-reveals-cracks-beneath-giant-methane-gushing-craters/




These 'pre-existing Faults' have always had me a tad concerned esp. as the complex moves inland into the permafrost?

If 'free Methane' is finding 'previously blocked' pathways through the complex of faults then areas can be becoming pressurised by the added migration?

If permafrost degradation is leading to the weakening of 'caps' over free methane reserves then this methane could surely take only 2 main pathways? One, via leakage directly into the layers above and Two, migration into existing reserves via interconnecting fault lines?

8
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: May 18, 2020, 04:50:56 PM »

 1.64C compared to 1750).

Highest anomalies in the Arctic Ocean and across Siberia.

Didn't they tell us that 1.5c above pre-industrial would cost us our Permafrost?

9
Consequences / Re: The WAVY Jet Stream
« on: March 27, 2020, 03:32:57 PM »
AGAIN:

Does anyone here have an image of the Jet stream prior to 2010? 

Anyone, anywhere?

I'd try Jen Francis?

She's been looking at data going back beyond the turn of the century to track the impacts of low ice/warmed Arctic Ocean on the polar Jet?

I'm sure if you read her earlier papers she'll link to the sites She used?

10
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 17, 2020, 11:31:09 PM »
From here in the UK....

To me (alone it appears?) it apears that the gods/fates are pretty pizzed at the selfissh, I ,Me,Mine, mentality which seems to be now 'deep rooted' in Society and so 'WE' are now being given a radical work over by 'Nature' Herself?

How many 'Socialist Actions' are now being rolled out, only 3 months away from a thumping 80 seat majority for the "I ,Me,Mine" mentality surely needed for such a result? How do such voters reconcile their choice on Dec 12th with the 'Reality' now (apparently?) needed?

All the folk whining for "Get Brexit Done" are now getting a real time view of just what such ' Splendid Isolation' means (prior to our severing contacts with our European Partners on Jan 1st?) to the UK?

All the folk who ignored the disabled/unemployed now face 'living' under their 98 quid a week reality....... (eat yer oats guys & all will be well!!!!)

The ''silent move' to a majority of rented accomodation now comes front and centre as folk try and make their '98 Quid' cover rent and 'leccy/gas/food'......

We may have been 'whining ,annoying voices' in the recent past but now 'Millions' will face our 'fate'..... for months beyond their 'repossession' date.....

And mortgages?

We saw in the 80's how 'compassionate' such comps were (and the millions left in negative equity for decades?)

All the folk 'turning their backs' on the 130,000 'needless'  dead since 2010 are now losing their shiite about 71 dead!!!!!!

Get Real folks!!!

You, over the past ten years.; have voted for 'YOU' alone......time to think of 'OTHERS'?

'They've done it to us' (whilst you wilfully ignored?) now they'll do it to you (and your loved ones!!!) be sure of it!!!

 

EDIT: Maybe ALL that a 'Corbyn Govt' promised suddenly appears more 'humane' now eh?

11
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 12, 2020, 10:46:16 AM »
I think the second phase has started, where the message will be: It can't be stopped, everyone will get it and need to get it, and then we and, more importantly, the economy can just continue as is.

The third phase will then be when people will just shrug it off, and it will have become normal, boring even. The symptoms will be dealt with, no systemic changes will be made, some people will profit mightily at the expense of the masses, and then it's on to the next global catastrophe.

I hope that the millions that stood by and did nothing as the 'neolib' reality was rolled out around them ('cause they had no need of most of that being 'cut/decimated?) will find need of these run into the ground 'public services, and so then push for change when we get to the other side of all of this?

Already in the UK 'Sick Pay' has suddenly been spotlighted and people aren't happy at the amounts paid should they 'fall sick' (Yet many have been struggling to survive on this pittance for a decade now without wider uproar?)?

12
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: March 12, 2020, 10:41:08 AM »
The climate-denying Australian Govt got hit hard by the fires this year... then they changed their tune a little bit by saying the climate is changing but it is natural... or that our percentage is so small that it doesnt matter..... then they talked about how they would leap into action to help rebuild the regions that were burnt down.

Three months later.......

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/mar/12/were-all-just-waiting-nsw-south-coast-residents-still-in-limbo-three-months-after-bushfires

The 'Global Elite' will never allow their monies (*) to be poured into mitigating the impacts of AGW?

(*) 'Their monies' includes all the money they reckon they can swindle from the Planet over the coming Years?

13
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 11, 2020, 02:18:31 PM »
I'm beginning to wonder about 'Italy'?

Did Wuhan 2019 meet up with Iran 2020 and they then did a bit of the old 'Recombination Shuffle'?.......

14
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 10, 2020, 04:38:57 PM »

I named this a "side effect" because consequences go far beyond the direct lethality and demographic impact of the virus, which was the main point of my post.

In the UK the 'side effect of a right wing regime for 10 years is 17,000 less beds and 48,000 nurses short with 'corridors' routinely used for treatment even when not facing a pandemic!!!!

15
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 09, 2020, 04:31:53 PM »
So, knowing as we do, the virus sets up 'Base Camp' in the nose/throat behind the nose, why are we not 'attacking it there' so slowing its ability to 'overwhelm' the body?

If we know from Wuhan that ALL patients show antibodies to the virus by day 10 could we not 'buy' our bodies that time by limiting its ability to survive in its 'chosen' base camp site?

With bacterial infection of my teeth/roots I've found those 'hot oatie bags' (that you put in the micronuke and then apply to your 'achey bits') ideal for raising the local temp of the area impacted (far above that the bacteria survive at and so lessening their load and helping my body deal with the infection?)

The same appears true with the virus that 'high temps' (why your body 'raises' your body temp as it tries to eradicate the infection....and you spike a temp?) so would daily 'sweating out' of those regions take out significant portions of the viral load residing there and so leave the virus having to 'start again' in gaining the numbers needed to impact lung function??

I'm sticking with my 'tried & tested' method I perfected over my caring for Luke ( involving 'sluicing' the region with well know & cheap 'anti viral agents' and snorking back the resultant 'mucus ++' over the entry point where nose meets throat?) but I'm sure you can all turn your minds to 'slowing up personal infection' and so buying your own immune system time to isolate ,and build up numbers, of affective antibodies to wipe out your infection and bring you 'partial immunity' from future infection??

16
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 08, 2020, 07:36:07 PM »
Quote from: Gray-Wolf
... I wonder if it might help reduce 'viral Load' and give a body a chance (10 days) to produce antibodies and fight off the attack..... I Wonder....

Probably not ...

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/myth-busters

... Can regularly rinsing your nose with saline help prevent infection with the new coronavirus?

No. There is no evidence that regularly rinsing the nose with saline has protected people from infection with the new coronavirus.

There is some limited evidence that regularly rinsing nose with saline can help people recover more quickly from the common cold. However, regularly rinsing the nose has not been shown to prevent respiratory infections

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-51735367

--------------------------

Anything stronger and you'd risk damaging your sinuses.

Also, some people are mouth-breathers. (... not to be confused with knuckle-draggers)

I think, just this once (it being a 'novel' occasion an' all?), I'll follow that which appeared to spare me the worst over 12 years of 'Barrier Medicine' with my (now deceased?) Son Luke?

Once i learned where most 'respiratory villains' hung out to multiply/overwhelm us it made sense (to me at least?) to attack them there before they took mastery?

Cut our own immune system a bit of slack by using a 'sledgehammer to crack a nut' in the coronavirus nurseries?

The studies from Hubie show us it's common to see antibodies in the infected after 10 days? anything to help but our bodies that 'time' has to be considered/weighed up?

As it is 15 yrs of application of such 'barrier medicine' leaves me with a fine sense of smell....but then the 'hand dosed' swimming pool of my younger Days didn't trash my nose ....even on those days it felt like a 'gas attack' the Chlorine was sooooo strong!!!!

17
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 08, 2020, 06:22:10 PM »
I wonder if there is a substance (that is widely used for the killing of bacteria/viruses?) that one could apply, on a regular basis, to the top of both nostrils (and the mucus membrane from filtrum up?)

Would such actions then regularly wipe out the 'kindergarten'  of Covid-19 as it tries to gain superiority in numbers (prior to migrating to the lower lung?)

The 'reaction' to the 'Anti-Viral/Bacteria swabbing would , naturally, produce mucus as a response and , should any person suffering such just  'snork it back' (so coating the area at the top of the throat behind it's junction with the nose i.e. the other Norovirus 'Kindergarten', with the 'agent'???)

I wonder if it might help reduce 'viral Load' and give a body a chance (10 days) to produce antibodies and fight off the attack..... I Wonder....

EDIT: Thinking about it when, in my youth, I went through a couple of years of regular Swimming at the local Baths I hardly ever had 'Colds'?

Was that due to my overall Fitness levels or was it me 'Snorking loads of Chlorinated Water'?

18
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 08, 2020, 11:45:36 AM »
Here in the UK that 'lower 1/3rd of society (that aided in securing us Brexshyte and johnson?) are now abroad without the MSM shrieking at them as to how best to progress so we now appear likely to see them at their 'Dunning/Kruger' best?

When they are no longer of use to'The Establishment' then the very folk that should be taking their time with them to make sure 'The Penny Drops' for them (and that they know how to act as 'Team Players' over the crisis?) will just desert them and leave them to their own designs........

Every 'rumour' of shortages will see them out and about 'hoovering up' every last item of said 'scarcity' leaving nothing for the rest....

They will, of course, forget who has been handling those products prior to them grabbing them....or to wash up B4 they next 'Face Touch'....

Keep well clear of 'Wetherspoons' for the next period eh?

19
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 06, 2020, 02:37:14 PM »
For those "waiting to hear it's in my area!" before taking it seriously? Don't!

By that time it will have been in your area, and circulation, for a potential 14 days 'asymptomatically' and a potential further 7 days as symptoms emerged and became bad enough for the victim to 'present' to the Health Service?

Meanwhile , like a scene from 'Gringotts Bank' where 'Le Strange's' Vault's 'doubling spell for silverware' is set off, further 'carriers' have been being produced (and creating their own 'carriers'?) day upon day....... better off to act is if it is HERE RIGHT NOW and so get a jump on the blighter?

'
"It's only affecting the elderly and is mild for most".....

In Aug 1918 so was H1N1!!!

But the return of a 'drifted' clade of H1N1 to the camps where the 'original clade' was still in circulation allowed the two clades to meet in a victim and to 'recombine' into something far deadlier.....

At present there are at least 4 'recognisably different' 'flavours' of Covid-19 in circulation, Wuhan,Iranian,S.Korean and Italian........

Never the twain shall meet or is a 'recombination' event inevitable?

20
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 05, 2020, 11:10:13 PM »
So what do we know of our dance with Covid-19 in the UK today?

Prof Witty, in his Govt. briefing this a.m. confirmed that our best 'modellers' (he insist probably the best in the Planet?) still go with 80% total infection before 'herd immunity' allows the Virus to peter out.

He tells us if we do not s-l-o-w the rate of infection 'Peak infection' could occur over a 3 week window (with the bulk of infections occurring over that time?)

He challenged, via a number of caveats, W.H.O.'s CFR of 3.4 insisting his 1% (or less?) CFR more representative

What do we do?

Frequent hand cleansing esp. when out and about

Avoid 'ill' people keeping at least 3 ft clear of them, this number varies between '3ft' (from our C.M.O. & W.H.O.), 6ft from the Wuhan Whistleblower Dr & 9ft from the U.S. 'Coronavirus prof.'

My take?

'Le Strange's Vault' in 'Gringotts Bank' (when the 'silverware starts to 'double'?) has been going on now a while in the UK & that there are now a significant No. of folk, currently 'asymptomatic', (but spreading virus?) walking around?

I think that we need act as though it's 'HERE, NOW!' and take the precautions advised to try and s-l-o-w the outbreak down and s-p-r-e-a-d , as wide as possible, the period carrying 'Peak Infection'??

If we don't want the health system to fall over for a short period of time then we must try our best (or accept the deaths a functioning health Service would have saved, if 'Functioning', and wonder if we could/should have tried harder?)

Be Well.

21
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 04, 2020, 12:41:06 PM »
Just me musing but did we not get warned by the 'Wuhan Whistleblower Dr' (who sadly died?) in january that the virus could live up to 9 Days on surfaces?

Our advice, in the UK, is that it survives only a matter of hours?

This 'quality' of the virus might be restricted to Wuhan's version but , and it's a big but, if not it puts a whole new spin on "Now wash your hands!"?

If, once the virus is here and infecting H2H, it might be serve you well to imagine ALL surfaces you touch as 'infected'?

It'll certainly get you washing those hands lest you 'self infect' will it not?


22
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 03, 2020, 03:28:11 PM »

23
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 02, 2020, 02:15:44 AM »
Uncoffined they were strewn

Tangled corpses lay unmourned

'The Great White Dope' naire a Cobra called yet still they fell asunder in their masses

#COVID2019 did 4 me

Yet far too busy the elite be

To mourn their lack of humanity

When my end came

'The unknown victims'

2020

24
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 01, 2020, 06:49:37 PM »
All bets are off if we do see a high 'R0' leading to a 'peak infection', in developed nations, that crashes health services (via swamping them but also leaving many staff suffering the virus with the rest of us?)

Symptoms that we can 'treat', in normal times, will lead to unnecessary death as will a plethora of other 'run of the mill', easily cured ailments, over that period? ....... drive safe over peak infection eh?.... nobody's coming to pull you out of your wreck nor will there be a bed in Hospital waiting for your mangled self.......

Can some of our posters just read up on the 1918 'Spanish Flu' and just how it impacted their health service over peak infection purlease!

As we , here in the UK, had said to us from our telly's (in the early 80's) 'Don't die of ignorance'

Be Well people!

25
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 01, 2020, 06:32:03 PM »
So NetWeatherTV.com banned me for updating folk to the sweeping powers our 'Great White Dope' (here in the UK?) has just invested himself with (and gifted his chief advisor, cummings, with power over ALL Govt. advisors) using Covid-19 as a reason (even though page 48 of the manifesto he was elected on pretty much followed Hitler's 1933 'investment' into a dictator?)....... what's all that about then?

Free speech,

One each.......

They'll wish they'd listened to me when they're being welded into their homes.....

26
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 29, 2020, 01:10:30 AM »
#covid2019

Time to don the 'doggy lampshades' folks.... it'll stop you self infecting via eye/nose/mouth rubbing and, when two wearers meet, they can effortlessly maintain the 6ft 'safe space'...

For the 'fashion conscious' among us watch a few Queenie 'Bladders' (esp. Lord Flashheart......) to get a few tips on how to 'pull it off' with panache!


Those aux fait with 'UP' will be aware of 'The Cone of Shame' though........


28
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 26, 2020, 02:34:05 PM »
I'd agree Kassy and here in the UK we have some schools on 'Lockdown', as of yesterday, because of school trips returning from Italy..... sadly their Parents/siblings are not being told to 'self isolate' and so are still going to their schools/work etc???

Madness I say!

29
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 26, 2020, 12:05:41 PM »
As one of the many that H1N1 left with a 'Post Viral Syndrome' I would urge you all to take some time over the weeks to come to practice 'relaxation techniques'?

As we saw back in the 80's (when it was called 'Yuppie flu') the syndrome seems to strike those with high stress/high anxiety lives.

My take is that the 'fight or flight response is firmly locked 'On' in such people (my stresses were the 24/7 care of my seriously disabled son) so the immune system is switched 'Off' leaving you open to 'complications' from viruses that trigger the autoimmune cascade of symptoms?

I'm not being a 'killjoy' and telling you to lay off the hooch (if you self medicate with such?) but to get your head into as good a space as you can prior to exposure...... you DO NOT want to end up like me once you've survived the virus!!!

Be well people!

30
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 25, 2020, 12:06:15 PM »
less than 10k.

Its under control in China, maybe 5k total there. It will be more easily controlled elsewhere, maybe 2k total there. Summer is coming.

I voted the same. I'm more worried about the panic than the disease itself. Once people realise this isn't a Hollywood blockbuster and boredom sets in again, we'll have another flu variant at the most. Probably a good time to invest in the pharmaceutical industry.

I wish I could muster the same level of 'Hope' as your good self Neven?

The virus is 'out and running Free' with us always up to 2 weeks behind the game so far as 'Cases' and 'Spread' are concerned?

If we could rely on the numbers coming out of China we'd be better able to understand both the 'R0' and the 'CFR' ...... as it is the + or - error bars are so wide when the potential numbers are so large?

Fully agree on the civil unrest aspects of the virus esp. over 'peak infection'?

When the masses grasp that their health Service is failing and absenteeism is impacting all aspects of the supply/demand networks the gods alone know what will pan out..... I'm glad I'm not in a nation where every Tom,Dick and Harry are 'open carrying' is all I'll say!!!!

31
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 24, 2020, 02:49:22 PM »
As soon as 'Pandemic' is declared world trade to start up again?

The 'lacklustre' attempts to keep the virus pinned down are probably tied into the global reality of a 'JustIn Time' global trade model for industry?

With the U.S. now (alleged to be) sown to its last 2 weeks of containers they're all in a hurry to get trade restarted !(never mind the extra long 'Chinese New Year' lay offs?)

32
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 22, 2020, 08:25:31 PM »
Incubation time is a huge variable to consider here i think, Wili.

Agreed!

Its purpose is to replicate and spread.

If it can be growing .unnoticed in a host for anything from 5 days up to a whopping alleged 42 days (one chinese woman after a visit to Wuhan and before the virus was supposed to be widespread in other Chinese provinces?) then it has plenty of opportunity to reproduce and spread?

If the 'host' then dies after completing this directive so what?

33
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 22, 2020, 07:40:13 PM »
Guy's , can we keep it civil please?

If we listen to W.H.O. we are lumbering toward this being declared Pandemic and the impacts on the globe will be immense.

We have set ourselves up for a fall by the way the world now operates and, should we see this go Pandemic, 'a fall' is what (IMHO) we are bound for?

Keep Well and 'do not die of ignorance' (as the old HIV ad's here in the UK used to say!)

34
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 22, 2020, 06:45:04 PM »
"... Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch estimates that 40 to 70 percent of the human population could potentially be infected by the virus if it becomes pandemic.[/b] Not all of those people would get sick, he noted. The estimated death rate from covid-19 — roughly two out of 100 confirmed infections — may also drop over time as researchers get a better understanding of how widely the virus has spread.

The novel coronavirus may be particularly suited for stealth community transmission since its symptoms can be indistinguishable from those of a cold or flu, and testing capabilities are still being ramped up.

This statement supports my belief that the virus will not be contained and any hope of doing so is long past. It also suggests that a global pandemic will not be the end of humanity. With a 2% fatality rate, possibly lower, we are seeing the equivalent of the Spanish Flu. This is going to be bad but persons here suggesting a 10% or 20% fatality rate are not paying attention to the experts.

Whilst agreeing with your post I think we should also be mindful that the virus may mutate into something either more benign or, in the worse case scenario, a lot worse.

Better to keep an eye on how things develop eh?

35
Again I'd be tempted to agree El Cid

For us in the UK the 80's and early 90's were the times folk were bemoaning the change to the UK winter with the snows of yesteryear a fading memory

The upsets come in the late 90's/noughties when the Polar Night Jet began its 'wobbles' and so impacted upon the Polar Jet and weathers seen in the Northern Hemisphere's temperate zones.

I do wonder what spring/summer will bring to us all this year though?

I tend to worry that whatever arises it will be at the extreme end of those weather 'types'?

I worry that far too many records will be broken before we descend into Autumn?

36
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 22, 2020, 02:24:37 PM »
I expect we will see it run through some dorms on college campuses soon.

Yes, the virus could spread very well in dorms. And students travel quite a bit.

Fortunately, this virus does not seem to target young people (unlike the "Spanish" flu).

I expect that my university may close down before the summer.

As we saw upthread the original incarnation of H1N1 in 1918 was 'mild for most' and it was the mutation over summer that brought in the nastier version we know so well?

The more hosts the virus has the more chance it has of mutation/recombination into a fouler form.

37
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 22, 2020, 02:21:53 PM »
GW, multiple experts have examined the structure of this thing and determined that it is not man-made.

If you have expert testimony to the contrary, please present it. Otherwise, please stop spreading unfounded conspiracy theories on the forum.

Thanks

Wili , sorry for the offence but it was posted to provide just the opposite of your conclusion? I'm sorry the levity escaped you?

38
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 22, 2020, 01:32:52 PM »
Can we expect a vaccine for this soon?
After nearly four decades we don’t have an HIV vaccine.

Were it a 'man made' thingy then we would have a vaccine already but , to hide their tracks, it would be delayed from being deployment for the general public for a 'reasonable' amount of time to 'prove' authenticity I reckon?

World leaders, of course, would all be inoculated so let's see how many of them succumb to Covid-19 eh?

39
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 22, 2020, 12:01:38 AM »
it just appears 'odd' that those of 'faith' appear more at risk from this via their 'communal' activities?

I suppose we can't discern 'his almighty plan' ?

40
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 21, 2020, 11:49:58 PM »
Islam, in my understanding, demands we prostrate ourselves 5 times a day (in close quarters with others in the room?)

How will this pan out in Iran?

And the Christian's (cult or other?) how will their 'gatherings' hasten spread?

41
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 21, 2020, 03:48:07 PM »
Didn't the troops bring back Spanish flu in 1918?)

Nope.

At the height of WWI, history’s most lethal influenza virus erupted in an army camp in Kansas, moved east with American troops, then exploded, killing as many as 100 million people worldwide. It killed more people in twenty-four months than AIDS killed in twenty-four years, more in a year than the Black Death killed in a century. But this was not the Middle Ages, and 1918 marked the first collision of science and epidemic disease.

John M. Barry The Great Influenza

There is nothing Spanish about the 1918 flu.
Sadly i can´t look up the details because i don´t have the book anymore.

It was the second wave, after it had mutated, that the Yanks fetched back through in the autumn of 1918 that was the real killer.

Only called the 'Spanish Flu' as Spain was 'neutral' and so could discuss in their MSM whilst combatant Nations kept schtum lest it impacted moral/war effort.......

42
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 21, 2020, 02:13:09 PM »
This would prove a very cruel 'twist of fate' if it proves true!

https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202002.0258/v1?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Cue the White supremacists explaining just why these populations are suffering worst.........

43
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 20, 2020, 04:20:07 PM »
I am not getting a mask. It would just make me touch my face all the more, being so uncomfortable. YMMV.


Still, please do wear a mask if you develop respiratory symptoms.  Masks might be useless for keeping virus out, but they're very likely helpful for keeping virus in.



Correct! over my years of caring for Luke WE wore the masks to protect him!

44
I also never bought the warm arctic-cold continents theory because data do not support it, the continents do warm quickly during winter. There have been however many strong cold breakouts during the past years and that is probably due to the uneven loss of sea-ice, especially in the Barents. This year however, the Barents had very stong ice (due to contiuous export), and it was cold and that probably stabilized the PV leading to this very warm winter. But I think the Barents will once again lose its ice and there could be many PV disruptions in the future.
It seems to me that when we have low/uneven ice cover we have a better chance for strong cold breakouts in NH midlatitudes. I think that an even ice distribution stabilizes the atmoshere from the bottom and the PV gets "anchored". If you have big "holes" or "dents" in the Arctic, it has a destabilizing effect.
So all in all, NH midlatitude winters are obviously getting warmer and when the PV behaves, almost all of Europe and a big part of the US becomes something like the Mediterranean for winter...

Makes sense to me El Cid!

When Jen Francis was doing her early work it focussed solely on the low sea ice we began to see ,from 2000 onward, in the Barrentsz/Kara sea areas and the atmospheric anoms over Autumn the 'shedding of heat prior to refreeze' drove.

In 2012 the Pacific side of the basin joined in the fun.

Like putting a lead weight on an unbalanced wheel has this , over time, lead to a 'stabilisation' of the PNJ as it formed in the autumn?

If so we will see rapid changes in the mid lats as mother N. tussles with the new conditions I believe?

Let's see how fast the winter snows go this year and how this , in turn , impacts on the sea ice loss around the coastal areas?

I worry our hemisphere is in for one heck of a Spring/Summer!

45
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 20, 2020, 01:28:05 PM »
Look Guys, I know this is V. scary if you linger on it but let's not shoot the messenger eh?

Vox is trying his level best (I am sure!) to make sure he stays in the 'factual zone' and not let the plethora of not so reputable sources enter his T/L/ (I sadly strayed over the line earlier but withdrew the post)

This is very important esp. as we are now into the 'Global Infection' stage.

Without honest and upfront data from China how can we hope to have a chance of halting the spread so the virus dies out through lack of hosts?

I too thought W.H.O. 'On the ground in Wuhan' and was reassured thinking we would get answers.

As of the 17th W.H.O. were NOT on the ground so we do not know what is happening there.

At the same time we saw the 'massaging of numbers' again from Beijing.

Something is rotten in the Kingdom of China.......

46
With the Polar Night Jet (PNJ or 'Polar Vortex') seeming to behave itself this Arctic winter this struck me as interesting;

https://www.exeter.ac.uk/news/homepage/title_778916_en.html

I had mooted, back in 2012, that once the rest of the basin caught up with Barrentsz/Kara then the PNJ would not be being dragged out of shape (leading to the 'polar plunges/WAA') and its impact on the Polar Jet would lessen?

This winter seems to show us this in operation with a strong PNJ most of its residence (still blowing hard and setting date records for its speed?) and the mid latitudes getting a glimpse of where their temps/weathers shouldn't be without being skewed by the rude interruption of polar plunges/WAA as the PNJ threw lobes down into lower Lats?


47
Permafrost / Re: Permafrost general science thread
« on: February 20, 2020, 10:24:50 AM »
Hmmmm;

https://theecologist.org/2020/feb/20/methane-shock

"Analysis published in the journal Nature shows methane emissions from fossil fuels owing to human activity is around 25 percent to 40 percent higher than thought."

48
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 18, 2020, 07:17:58 PM »
This is BS, Gray-Wolf.

It does not even deserve the FUD label. It's straight BS out of the of a rotten mind.

I think you shouldn't share such stuff.

Done and done!

Glad I asked!

49
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 17, 2020, 12:35:55 PM »
Maybe new cases are dropping. Maybe they are not. Since these are Chinese statistics they have a cloud over their reliability. In a week or so we should see. It’s gotta peak eventually, if just from running out of victims.

I believe W.H.O. are now on the ground in China so we may begin to get a clearer picture of the outbreak when they report back?

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