Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - woodstea

Pages: [1] 2
1
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: October 16, 2017, 07:08:28 PM »
It's going to be a long, dark winter.... :(

Here's to hoping our favorite buoy flickers to life come Spring 2018...

I'll continue to hope that all winter, but I'm feeling pessimistic. Oct. 3 is pretty early for a last picture of the season from O-Buoy 14. Last year we had some from November, though the battery situation may have been different at that time. If it wakes up again next spring I think I'm going to have to throw a party to celebrate.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 21, 2017, 03:20:21 PM »
Nice reflections this morning at O-Buoy 14. There appears to be a sort of gyre at the north end of the M'Clintock Channel where the buoy is located.  I've noticed on Worldview that floes have moved northward along the east side of the channel near Prince of Wales Island, but southward along the west side near Victoria Island.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 15, 2017, 12:07:30 AM »
The Obuoy 14 images have been updating every 15 minutes today. ( is that normal?)

It's happened before, including last summer when the buoy broke free. I'm guessing that once things get interesting that they change the frequency of images, either at the buoy itself or the update frequency to the website. I certainly appreciate it!

Interesting to note the buoy temperature dropped below 0 C and has remained there since it broke free.

This may be more a factor of the weather rather than anything about the buoy breaking free. Warmer air came through this past weekend and should again in another day or two. The wind should shift around to the south and send the buoy back in the direction of the Parry channel.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 14, 2017, 09:04:03 PM »
Adding 60º would change the current NNW gaze to NE (and definitely away from the main body of ice).

Which I think fits what we see in the photo magnamentis posted above from 16:01 UTC. At that time the graph azimuth was 320, plus 40 would be due north. Based on the sun's position it's got be pointing more to the east than that.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 14, 2017, 08:45:21 PM »
Current O-buoy 14 azimuth reading is 300º, so camera is pointed to 340º or NNW (unless, of course, the camera relation to the GPS azimuth has changed)

Tor, I think the offset is greater than 40 degrees, more like 100, though I go back and forth about the exact number. Originally I came up with that estimate based on my best (though very much amateur) attempt at calculating sun position in a photo from last year. The offset could very well change over time (bumped by a polar bear?), though that's not what I would expect.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 14, 2017, 08:40:55 PM »
Look, it's nothing personal. When someone makes a statement like this:

if anyone is interested to know what i'm talking about for months now

it tends to elicit a kind of reflexive pushback. You make it sound like you've been telling us this all along and all of us were saying "No, no! It can't be that."

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 14, 2017, 08:01:03 PM »
if anyone is interested to know what i'm talking about for months now is this what happened withing a few hours around o-buoy 14:

and yes i'm aware that the back could look still difference (probably does) but nevertheless it was not so much open water anywhere during recent rotations of the buoy ;)

Go look at this area in PolarView (there's an image from this morning that shows the area just north of the buoy) and you can see that the buoy is near the edge of a lot of ice to the west and open water to the east. We couldn't see it up until now because the buoy wasn't free to rotate. Definitely I think there was a lot of melt and break up this weekend, but it isn't like all that ice we were seeing before has all but disappeared.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 14, 2017, 04:08:11 PM »
Fasten your seatbelts, its going to be a bumpy night.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 11, 2017, 01:34:03 AM »
Lots of snowmelt today at O-Buoy 14, and warm weather on the way for the weekend.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 10, 2017, 06:41:59 PM »
It's intermittent because there is no longer sufficient battery power to keep things running when the solar panels can't generate electricity from the available light. The gaps will continue to lengthen as the days get shorter. On the GPS graphs you don't see the gaps, just a lack of movement, which can be misleading.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 03, 2017, 11:01:17 PM »
Thanks! Here's the feature I'm talking about, btw.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 03, 2017, 07:45:32 PM »
Looks like the highest point in the Rawlinson Hills is just above 140 meters. There's also some ground in the 130-140 meter range very near the coast just behind a point called Cape Acworth, which would be my guess for a visible feature from the buoy's location. Here's a topo for that area (you'll need to click the "Continue to PDF" link):

http://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2012/rncan-nrcan/M116-2-068B11.pdf

This is just south of Cape Richard Collinson that appears in the small map above. Here's that topo:

http://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2012/rncan-nrcan/M116-2-068B14.pdf

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 03, 2017, 06:47:55 PM »
If the camera was pointing SSW when the buoy woke up (with Azimuth reading about 160º), now (with a reading of about 240º) is the camera pointing NNW?

Yes, I think so. If you zoom in on the photo in Chun_Kaoriina's post above on the morning of 8/2 (when the azimuth was a bit higher, perhaps even NNE), there is a little bump on the horizon toward the right side of the image. That might be the "Rawlinson Hills" marked on this map, but it could easily be any number of other things. I have no idea what the elevation of those hills is.

Also, I see that the Canadian Ice Service appears to be updating its "Western Arctic" ice charts that include the M'Clintock Channel. The latest charts are from 7/31, currently at the bottom of this page:

http://iceweb1.cis.ec.gc.ca/Prod/page2.xhtml?CanID=11081&lang=en&title=Western+Arctic

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 02, 2017, 05:35:07 PM »
Buoy14 camera updated again :-)
my guess would be, that even these small "waves" or ripples might increase melt at the edge of the ice
we're also seeing alot of tilt in the picture, is it save to assume that the buoy is floating now?

Probably not at this point. If the buoy were completely free it would be able to rotate more quickly with changes in the wind direction than the ice floe, so we wouldn't see the same fixed view of the ice around it. But I'd guess the ice has thinned out quite a bit below the surface around the buoy, allowing it to tilt a bit.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 31, 2017, 12:01:55 PM »
Pretty cool effect last night -- would you call this optical effect a halo, or...?

O-Buoy 14 is roughly at 72.45 degrees N. At this point of the year there's still 24 hour daylight at that latitude, but the first sunset is just a few days from now.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 31, 2017, 11:37:09 AM »
From O-Buoy 14 last night, in the M'Clintock Channel:


17
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 28, 2017, 09:16:45 PM »
This is the message FishOutofWater was responding to, a bit upthread (click the bold header above the quote to go to the full post).

Thanks, I see it now. It's weird -- I did a search of the whole forum for a couple of keywords from the bit Fish appeared to be responding to and that didn't come up, just Fish's response.

I'm not always the best at reading all the theoretical stuff about salinity, albedo, etc. I'm sure it's important, but at times it seems like not everyone using these terms has the scientific background to back them up.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 28, 2017, 05:56:32 PM »
Fish, was that meant for another forum somewhere? Seems a bit out of context, maybe I'm missing something.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 28, 2017, 05:37:56 PM »
since i really like optimistic people my congrats for you very strong optimism, i'd never have thought it could make it that far while like you, i initially thought it would take the way down through baffin and davis. i dunno enough about currents in those passages but looking at the ice drift i suspect that surface winds are in charge as to where what floes in that area.

Me neither, but after it made it through the winter I figure anything's possible.

My other scenario is that it gets picked up by a ship in the Queen Maud Gulf and ends up at Cambridge Bay, where it becomes an exhibit at the Canadian High Arctic Research Station. If that happened I would make it a bucket list goal to travel there some day and see it in person. I'm a big fan.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 28, 2017, 05:15:43 PM »
Several republicans I know would still be out there on their snowmobiles! (... evolution in action, I suspect )

Only if it's pre-breeding.

Well, in any case, it does look like my hope for the buoy making it out to the Labrador Sea before dying is all but lost. Now I am thinking it would be nice if it could make it down into Terror Bay off King William Island. Perhaps on the way we could get a webcam shot of the Crystal Serenity.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 28, 2017, 04:54:43 PM »
I agree. Looks like winds should continue to blow from the north for the next day or two. Farther out ECMWF has some heat in the forecast toward the end of the week. I'll be surprised if the O-Buoy 14 hasn't broken loose by that time, but I guess we'll see.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 05, 2017, 10:38:12 AM »
Is the "buoy's azimuth" a fixed angle w.r.t. the camera direction ? And if so, did we figure out what that angle is ? Or is the "buoy's azimuth" simply the direction in which the buoy is moving ?

Yes, I'm pretty sure it is a fixed angle. My best guess last year was that it's somewhere around 110 degrees. The azimuth is currently about 160 degrees according to the graph on the GPS page, so that makes the camera direction roughly 270 degrees, or due west. Looking at the photo above I'd say it was more WSW, so maybe 110 degrees offset is too much. I eventually decided I didn't care too much about the exact number -- just figure about a quarter turn clockwise from the azimuth.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 04, 2017, 08:07:45 PM »
The Obuoy14 camera azimuth is different from the azimuth designated for the buoy.
Here's one estimate I tried to make of that difference last year, when we were trying to figure out if we could see land and if so, what land in particular:

Here we have a shot of the moon. I used a sun/moon position calculator (http://www.satellite-calculations.com/Satellite/suncalc.htm) and for this lat/lon (estimated from graphs) and time it said the moon's azimuth should be 244 degrees. Given the azimuth reading from the graph I would say that the offset for the camera azimuth is probably more than 90 degrees, more like...110? I wish we had lat/lon coordinates in real time rather than just on the movies.

In any case I'd say we are looking WSW here, so that the closest point on Banks Island is out of view to the left.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 02, 2017, 04:05:36 PM »
What a relief! I remember losing the camera image for a day or two before. I wonder whether perhaps some drive filled up back at Wood's Hole or Bigelow, wherever they process and archive the imagery.

I don't think the buoy has come free from the ice. If it has, it's not free enough yet to rotate so that the azimuth changes as it did when the buoy was free last year.

My guess is that the different floes around the buoy are moving somewhat relative to each other, heaving a little bit, tilting a bit, as winds and currents cause compression and decompression. The floes may not be completely independent yet -- but there are enough fractures and thinner areas that some movement is possible.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: June 30, 2017, 03:35:32 PM »
Pitch fluctuates by up to 10 degrees, generally returning to zero.  Roll is only fluctuating by fractions of a degree around an average that is changing slightly.  Seems odd for one to vary by significantly more than the other.  Thoughts?  Malfunctioning sensors?

I wouldn't doubt that after all this time that the sensors aren't operating at 100%. But I can also imagine that, depending on the configuration of the ice that the buoy is frozen into, as well as typical wind/current/wave patterns at that location, that there could be more motion in one direction than another. If you're in a boat facing into a series of waves, for instance, there's going to be more pitch than roll. Turn the boat 90 degrees and you'll have the opposite.

I sure with the camera would update. We've had lapses before, but it worries me.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: June 29, 2017, 11:16:31 PM »
With high pressure forecast for the CAA in upcoming days, it seems like a lot of progress could be made towards opening the Parry Channel route of the NWP:

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: June 29, 2017, 11:06:12 PM »
Newsflash - I could swear the lake is draining or something. The white features are much higher in the water than they were earlier today. Also the water's coloring gives the hint of less depth.

Perhaps -- it's so hard to tell though with such a different sun angle. The first picture is more of a dawn type lighting from behind the camera.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: June 28, 2017, 04:40:46 PM »
However, the change in Roll appears to be more consistent and I'm wondering if it could indicate an early sign of ice starting to melt out around #14. Back in the early days when #14 had a family, I recall seeing this happen to nearby instruments. (RIP big yellow bucket  :'(  )

The big yellow bucket is still out there, just a bit farther west, on the other side of Stefansson Island:

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=148096

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: June 27, 2017, 12:08:24 AM »
did you see the latest image? mean about "no surface melt" i call this surface melt, if it is not teach me about what IS surface melt. would be happy to get rid of an eventual mis-interpretation of a term that is key in this forum.

There are two different buoys being discussed here. When they say "no surface melt", they're talking about IMB 2017A, which doesn't have a camera:

http://imb-crrel-dartmouth.org/imb.crrel/2017A.htm

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: June 26, 2017, 05:03:05 PM »
It's amazing to me how fast the transition happened, but I suppose it shouldn't be.

If it's like last year, the buoy will break free first in a melt hole immediately around it, so you'll see the azimuth (and view) start to change as it rotates before the real break up happens.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: June 20, 2017, 02:25:08 PM »
The IJIS website goes down more than Candy Darling. It drives me crazy. Don't they know I'm entitled to see their graph first thing every morning?  ;)

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: June 15, 2017, 10:02:25 PM »
A blast from the past for you:

Perfect! What really strikes me about that image is how far out from land the buoy was at that moment. Just eyeballing it quickly, maybe 500 km? I knew that polar bears roamed far and wide over the frozen Arctic Sea, but this makes it more tangible. It's a good image to keep in mind when we're talking about record low September minimums, etc.

33
The rest / Paradoxically hoping for record low Arctic sea ice
« on: June 15, 2017, 09:43:10 PM »
We just had a few posts in the IJIS topic about hoping for zero Arctic sea ice, or at least for record low sea ice extent this year. Do those of you who vote for a record low on September daily minimum polls hope that you're right? When there are several century drops in a row, do you get excited?

Having read these forums for many years, I have often seen what appears to be enthusiasm about big extent drops. People add "of course I'm hoping this won't happen", but this often doesn't seem to match the emotion in what they were saying originally. It's like that "not that there's anything wrong with that" line from Seinfeld.

"Look at ECMWF 00Z +48!! The ice is going to be devastated! Of course that would be terrible..."

What's behind that? My take on it from the IJIS topic:

I expect there will eventually come a time where the number of climate change deniers will dwindle to the point where they're essentially irrelevant, like the flat earthers. I would love to think that we could reach that point earlier rather than later, maybe because some event like an ice-free North Pole some year soon would convince certain prominent voices among them to change their minds.

It's a thin hope, but I think it's behind why some part of me roots for a record low extent each year.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: June 15, 2017, 09:01:04 PM »
I expect there will eventually come a time where the number of climate change deniers will dwindle to the point where they're essentially irrelevant, like the flat earthers. I would love to think that we could reach that point earlier rather than later, maybe because some event like an ice-free North Pole some year soon would convince certain prominent voices among them to change their minds.

It's a thin hope, but I think it's behind why some part of me roots for a record low extent each year.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: June 15, 2017, 08:32:49 PM »
I am a bit disappointed, the bears didn't hang around for a photo shoot though  ;)

Me too. I've always hoped that some live creature would happen to be in the view at some point, but I really never thought I'd see it, or even tracks like this. I guess it makes sense, though -- a polar bear could spot this thing from some distance.

I have a fantasy about the Mars Curiosity rover, where the last picture sent back from it includes an indistinct dark shape that fills most of the frame, and then the signal goes dead.


36
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 15, 2017, 06:06:21 PM »
Hard to beat this one from O-Buoy 14. There's been some discussion of it on the What the buoys are telling thread.

37
The forum / Re: Suggestions
« on: June 15, 2017, 05:36:12 PM »
I would like to see a place on the forum for FAQs. The only think I have seen like it is the Glossary thread in the Arctic Sea Ice forum. It would be useful to have introductory info on a variety of topics, such as the various satellites and their sensors: what agency is responsible for them, when were they launched, what sensors are on board, what are the characteristics of the sensors (bands, etc.) and what are they useful for?

Anyone who used Usenet News back in the days before AOL and everyone joined the Internet remembers how it used to be in the technical groups (comp.unix.shell, for instance). Serious people were on those forums, and if you were a newbie and asked some question whose answer was readily available in the FAQ, etc., the only answer you would get would be "RTFM". Everyone was expected to have done that before taking part in discussions.

The trouble with the forum format for FAQs is that even in a thread like the Glossary one, useful information is buried down in the thread as additional posts are added, and those are discussed, etc. What I think would be better would be to have a certain person responsible for each FAQ thread, and the original post in the thread would be updated over time so everything would be in that first post.

Once we had a good set of FAQs, we could start telling people "RTFM" instead of wasting a lot of space in the main forums answering the same questions over and over again.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 15, 2017, 04:52:22 PM »
There is a darker red visible in this area on the Suomi NPP M3-I3-M11 image, like this one from June 11.

Edited: I notice the same darker red, though, in other areas of the map that uni-bremen is not showing as lower concentration.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: June 08, 2017, 02:51:08 PM »
Just noticed that the O-Buoy 14's anemometer appears to be missing. I knew it hadn't been working for some time.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 07, 2017, 04:49:21 PM »
i don't get the point, what are you referring to (perhaps i missed it, then sorry) but i can't see the connection between mid-august melting in another region and the current melting and/or buoy location, depending on what you mean. asking because i'm interested to know which point i've been missing perhaps ;)

I think I was misreading the discussion above about melt ponds -- post removed.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: June 05, 2017, 02:56:32 PM »
(Edited)
Some changes in the snow at Obuoy 14 over the last week.  This animated gif shows the same time of day for clear days on May 24, 28, and June 4.  The snow drifts are very noticably changed.  After watching the animated gif closely, I think it is new snow fall and drifts, not melting, that makes the difference.  The June 4 landscape is much flatter in the foreground.  In the middle distance is a dune that clearly grows from new snow.  And watching the ripples vanish in the foreground, I believe they get covered over by new snow, not melted away to flatness.

That happened last year several times as well -- there was snowfall as late as July 18.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 02, 2017, 06:35:14 PM »
That Zack Labe image is great. I don't think I have seen ice from this perspective. It seems much closer than what satellite resolution provides and maybe even closer than airplanes, but farther than typical ground images.

It was taken by a UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) -- a drone. It's a stunning image. I wish we had a lot more of this kind of thing.

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: May 26, 2017, 11:03:28 PM »
Distant open water is also something I imagined I saw frequently last year during the freeze-up -- the mind sees what it wants (or expects) to see. I think it's an illusion in this case. I don't see open water anywhere near this buoy in Worldview or the uni-bremen ice concentration map. The buoy is closer to Stefansson Island I think than to open water.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: May 26, 2017, 08:39:29 PM »
I think we can see land in the distance.  Do we know which island(s)? (Map from Obuoy website, annotated) [edit: per the next post, I've uncovered the marker.]
You may be right, but I do remember that as the buoy was working its way into the Parry Channel last year, I often thought I could make out land in certain photos, but then other photos with similar azimuth but different sun angle seemed to show no land. When this first started happening the buoy was just too far out for it to be possible. I suspect that's the case now, if it's true that the buoy is 70 km away from the nearest island and the highest point on that island is 267 meters.

The map on the Obuoy monitor site oddly shows a track which ends short of the green position marker. If I read the position as 74.3N 103W out of the GPS display it fits the green marker position rather than the end of the red track which stops too far west.
The end of the red track is the last position of the buoy when it went dark for the winter. After that it continued to move with the ice to its current position, which has barely changed since the buoy woke up again.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: May 23, 2017, 05:05:30 PM »
It's great to see that we are about to hit 7 days of straight uptime on #14! It appears that the batteries started to really drop out about a month ago and are only providing slight power buffering from the solar panels, which are now benefiting from 24hr daylight.

Also, there have been quite a few blizzards or dense ice fogs over the last 2+ weeks. When we had some clear conditions a few days back, I feel like the drifts appeared a bit larger and more widespread.

When the view is obscured like this I am always wondering whether it's fog or whether something is obstructing the lens -- like a thin layer of frost. Fog seems like the right answer here considering that the humidity is high, and considering that we've had some back and forth between the foggy view and a clear view during the last month.

I understand that there's a difference between ice fog and freezing fog. This would be freezing fog, right? Supercooled droplets of water rather than ice crystals, since the temperature is near 0°C.

I am tremendously interested to see what the view looks like once it clears. Will we see evidence of melting? How long before we see melt pools like we did last year?

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 22, 2017, 06:24:40 PM »
To EVERYONE here: Right now the GFS skill score is just complete GARBAGE!

THIS says more than words!


I agree that GFS isn't doing too well lately, but I'm not crazy about seeing Ryan Maue used as a source on this forum.

Edited: ...which I know is off-topic. I'd be interested in others' viewpoints on Ryan Maue and WeatherBELL. Perhaps someone can suggest the right forum for that?

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: May 09, 2017, 08:31:41 PM »
Brief spike above 0 degrees this afternoon at O-Buoy 14 in the CAA. That's the first time this year. Approximate location : 74° 12' N, 103° 3' W.

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: March 30, 2017, 03:24:08 PM »
Nice shadow from O-Buoy 14 this morning.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: February 21, 2017, 11:24:20 PM »
The view was a little clearer in today's last pic.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: February 15, 2017, 04:53:27 PM »
14 on the 14th.  Good on it I'd been pulling for it.  If it makes it out of the garlic press then I hope they refurbish it and put it back to work.  But a small second year battery would be a good addition. Keep it going through the second winter.

I'd love to see that but the O-Buoy program has been completed and I doubt there is any funding for retrieval. The last deployments were in the fall of 2015. I'm happy to see that they are at least sticking with this one (and keeping the website up) while it's still sending data. My hope is that it will make it all the way out to Labrador Sea and successfully navigate the Northwest Passage.

There are a lot of other buoys out there, but none that I know of with a webcam. I wonder if we could convince any of those programs to include cameras in their future designs. We had such a great view of the melt and refreeze last year.

Pages: [1] 2