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Messages - RaenorShine

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1
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
« on: May 18, 2016, 08:26:52 PM »
The Greenland melt season has continued to get off to an above average start, with a far larger melt pulse over the last couple of days.

DMI are showing that surface met has got underway in earnest on the west coast, with 2Gt being lost each day at the moment, a few weeks earlier than the 2012 start of the melt season.

Image courtesy of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado, Boulder.

2
Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: May 16, 2016, 11:25:22 AM »
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-36299541

Quote
Billion people face global flooding risk by 2060, charity warns

A British aid charity is warning that by 2060 more than a billion people worldwide will live in cities at risk of catastrophic flooding as a result of climate change.

A study by Christian Aid says the US, China and India are among the countries most threatened.

3
Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: May 10, 2016, 10:57:33 AM »
And so it begins....

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/may/10/five-pacific-islands-lost-rising-seas-climate-change

Quote
Five Pacific islands lost to rising seas as climate change hits

Six more islands have large swaths of land, and villages, washed into sea as coastline of Solomon Islands eroded and overwhelmed

Five tiny Pacific islands have disappeared due to rising seas and erosion, a discovery thought to be the first scientific confirmation of the impact of climate change on coastlines in the Pacific, according to Australian researchers.

4
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
« on: April 19, 2016, 01:36:37 PM »
NSIDC have now started the daily melt readings, and have updated the graph back to the beginning of the year. it shows the early melt blast at around 10% of the area, similar to the DMI model.

Image courtesy of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado, Boulder.

5
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
« on: April 12, 2016, 10:23:56 AM »
DMI shows Surface melt as bbr2314 points out.

DMI Surface Mass balance balance increased in the DMI model by 6Gt on 11/4. This is due to rain/snow over the majority of the sheet more than offsetting the heavy loss along the westernmost edge.

Although this is a gain, it does not show the early damage done to the snow blanket over the sheet or melt ponds created, the model will account for these once water leaves the ice sheet over the season.

6
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
« on: April 11, 2016, 11:50:27 PM »
Robert Scribbler has just posted another Greenland Article

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/04/11/warm-southerly-winds-gust-at-hurricane-force-over-greenland-in-staggering-early-season-heatwave-temperatures-now-hitting-up-to-41-degrees-f-above-average-at-summit/

Weather Underground have a high of 17C (In April!) for Kangerlussuaq, Greenland https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/BGSF/2016/04/11/DailyHistory.html

Going to be interesting to check the DMI surface mass balance readings over the next couple of days. NSIDC have not even started their daily readings yet...

7
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: April 09, 2016, 09:09:14 AM »
Not strictly new in Greenland, but as a result of Greenland melt, the earths polar wobble as changed according to NASA.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/apr/09/melting-ice-sheets-changing-the-way-the-earth-wobbles-on-its-axis-says-nasa

Quote
Global warming is changing the way the Earth wobbles on its polar axis, a new Nasa study has found.

Melting ice sheets, especially in Greenland, are changing the distribution of weight on Earth. And that has caused both the North Pole and the wobble, which is called polar motion, to change course, according to a study published on Friday in the journal Science Advances.

Original Paper is published here

http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/2/4/e1501693

Quote
Abstract
Earth’s spin axis has been wandering along the Greenwich meridian since about 2000, representing a 75° eastward shift from its long-term drift direction. The past 115 years have seen unequivocal evidence for a quasi-decadal periodicity, and these motions persist throughout the recent record of pole position, in spite of the new drift direction. We analyze space geodetic and satellite gravimetric data for the period 2003–2015 to show that all of the main features of polar motion are explained by global-scale continent-ocean mass transport. The changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) and global cryosphere together explain nearly the entire amplitude (83 ± 23%) and mean directional shift (within 5.9° ± 7.6°) of the observed motion. We also find that the TWS variability fully explains the decadal-like changes in polar motion observed during the study period, thus offering a clue to resolving the long-standing quest for determining the origins of decadal oscillations. This newly discovered link between polar motion and global-scale TWS variability has broad implications for the study of past and future climate.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« on: March 10, 2016, 01:26:17 PM »
Radio Ecoshock on the arctic this week

http://www.ecoshock.info/2016/03/extreme-arctic-fear.html

Quote
Abrupt warming in Arctic could lead to catastrophic consequences says top scientist Dr. Peter Gleick, ICCI Director Pam Pearson, and the founder of Paleoceanography, Dr. James Kennett. Three must-listen interviews.

"What is happening in the Arctic now is unprecedented & possibly catastrophic."

That's the Tweet heard around the world at the end of February. It was picked up by the Independent newspaper in the UK, and many other places in the alternative and climate-savy media. Robert Hunziker did a strong piece about it in CounterPunch called "The Arctic Turns Ugly".

9
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
« on: February 23, 2016, 08:42:48 PM »
Jim,

The accumulated anomaly has been in that sort of position for the last couple of years.

You can access the historic graphs on polar portal (DMI's Sister site displaying the same model) by playing about with the URL (images go back to 2012)

For the Image :
http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/surface/SMB_map_LA_acc_EN_20150222.png
http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/surface/SMB_map_LA_acc_EN_20140222.png
etc

For the Graph (labelled correctly ;0):

http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/surface/SMB_curves_LA_EN_20150222.png
http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/surface/SMB_curves_LA_EN_20140222.png
etc

This is not normal though, as this is an anomaly plot these past couple of years are out of the ordinary.

My understanding is that Greenland is getting more precipitation in the South East for much the same reasons as NE USA is getting Snowmageddon, the warm Atlantic waters and a stuck jet stream.

The North West has seen far less precipitation than normal leaving the average 'on track'.

Without the constant stream of storms to the south east the SMB of Greenland would be seriously negative (see 2012's graphs if I am reading them correctly).

10
Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015
« on: February 15, 2016, 07:55:16 PM »
Going Beyond "Dangerous" Climate Change -  Lecture by Professor Kevin Anderson at the London School of Economics on 4 February 2016

Quote
Despite high-level statements to the contrary, there is little to no chance of maintaining the global mean surface temperature increase at or below 2 degrees Celsius. Moreover, the impacts associated with 2°C have been revised upward sufficiently so that 2°C now more appropriately represents the threshold between 'dangerous' and 'extremely dangerous' climate change.

Kevin Anderson will address the endemic bias prevalent amongst many of those building emission scenarios to underplay the scale of the 2°C challenge. In several respects, the modeling community is actually self-censoring its research to conform to the dominant political and economic paradigm. However, even a slim chance of 'keeping below' a 2°C rise now demands a revolution in how we consume and produce energy. Such a rapid and deep transition will have profound implications for the framing of society, and is far removed from the rhetoric of green growth that increasingly dominates the climate change agenda.


11
Science / Re: Links regarding Dr Francis' meandering jet stream effects
« on: January 26, 2016, 03:35:16 PM »
New lecture from Dr Jennifer Francis on 21 January 2015 at the Storm Center Weather and Climate Summit.



The StormCenter Communications Youtube channel this is hosted on has videos of all the weeks sessions being uploaded as set out in their agenda http://www.stormcenter.com/wxcsummit/agenda.html. Well worth a browse for fairly accessible overviews of recent weather and climate research.

12
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: January 07, 2016, 08:22:48 PM »
December heatwave in the UK gives farmer early crop of Asparagus

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hereford-worcester-35250699

Quote
Unseasonably warm temperatures have led to "chunky" asparagus spears sprouting nearly a foot tall in Herefordshire.

Grower Chris Chinn, of Ross on Wye, said he was "absolutely astonished" to see the crop, usually harvested in early March, two months earlier.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« on: December 29, 2015, 07:27:53 PM »
As its now Tuesday evening I thought I'd take a look if the warmer air i making its way up at actual measurement stations .....

Current temperature in Svalbard (Longyear Airport) is 7C (compared to a daily average of -9C and all time max of 3C (in 2004) according to Wunderground) 

http://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:00000.4.01008?sp=ENSB.

14
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2015 Melt Season
« on: June 09, 2015, 10:32:04 AM »
Greenland is still quiet on the melt front.

Jason box posted the following

http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/greenland-melt-season-kicks-off-slowly-in-2015/

Quote
Greenland melt season kicks off slowly in 2015; the new abnormal

Sitting here in Kangerlussuaq west Greenland expecting not a large melt year. Like another late melt season, 2013, a sticky atmospheric circulation pattern in the past 5 months has favored cold air transport down the west coast of the island.

............

15
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2015 Melt Season
« on: June 03, 2015, 06:49:31 PM »
After yet another storm a couple of days ago (which bought the mass gain this year to above average), the Greenland melt season seems to be getting underway. The past 2 days DMI have reported a 1Gt mass loss per day,and NSIDC have the melt area climbing steadily (although still below average).


16
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2015 Melt Season
« on: May 21, 2015, 10:38:41 AM »
With parts of the arctic breaking heat records you might expect a earlier start to the melt season in Greenland, but it has been quiet so far, with only one day of slight negative Surface Mass balance (SMB) on DMI, and no days where over 5% of the sheet has melted.

DMI has shown two large precipitation events (14 May and 19-20 May) that have kept the Year to date SMB above the average for this time of year. As the current storm moves northward, there is a glimmer of increased melt on the SE coast.

The snow storms have also whitened the icesheet, taking off the slight anomoly that was developing in the south. This will slow melt for a week or so until it gets back to where it was.

NSIDC shows one pixel of surface melt for 19/5, so all is quiet here also.


17
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2015 Melt Season
« on: May 06, 2015, 03:41:35 PM »
All is still very quiet on the melt front, but there is also very little gain since the large storm ended nearly 2 weeks ago, bringing the SMB graph back very close to the average YTD gain.

NSIDC is showing only the odd pixel for a day or 2 (with none today), but no sustained melt.

Polar Portal have restarted the albedo anomaly plots on their surface page (http://polarportal.dk/en/groenlands-indlandsis/nbsp/isens-overflade/). It looks very average so far, with few major deviations from the 2000-2009 average values.

18
Thanks for moving this across! It wont get lost across here, and I'm sure it will help others analysing the CT data.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: May 06, 2015, 12:01:51 PM »
PLG, Could this discussion be moved into the Developers Corner in a new thread ("Issues with Analysis of Cryosphere Today data"?). Explaining the steps to normalise the dates would be useful for others I'm sure and will get lost in any of these regularly updated threads.

Also, I don't think this really fits here as this thread is regarding Wipneus' data calculations from AMSR2 data.

20
Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: May 01, 2015, 02:12:12 PM »
Lennart, agree entirely with your points, one high period doesnt make a trend (just as a low one does not mean a 'recovery').  It is very much still 'weather' rather than 'climate'. That doesn't mean we can't point the record data out though, just that we should be very careful about projecting forward from it.

The AVISO data is detrended for the regular annual and semi annual signals, but not as far as I can see for El Nino etc (see the peak in 1997-8). We'll have to see where this peak has come from in due course. The higher the peak goes the more likely a rebound dip comes on the other side (as in 1999).

It will take several years of higher rates to show a statistically significant shift. Just as with the recent global tempurature values it acts as a reminder of how we are changing the planet.

21
Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: May 01, 2015, 12:32:31 PM »
Saw a comment on Robert Scribblers blog re a spike in sea level rise recently, just checked the numbers on AVISO and the late spike in 2014 has continued upwards.

http://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/data/products/ocean-indicators-products/mean-sea-level.html has the graph and also a link to the raw data.

The latest 2015 value (for day 50) shows a 2.8mm rise from the highest value of 2014 already this year (the rise is 3.3mm from the final value in 2014, and 8.7mm from a year ago).  We are almost 1cm above trend of 3.3mm per year, and looks to be close to record variablity from the graph.

22
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2015 Melt Season
« on: April 28, 2015, 10:15:32 AM »
Any possibility that the limb of yellow heading east was an outburst of fresh water from Greenland

As I understand, a lot of the sea ice on the east of Greenland comes via Fram Strait export and is carried by currents southward.

The DMI Surface Mass Balance model shows its first negative value (just) for the year today, this is more to do with lack of precipitation than extensive melt this early in the season, with very little melt showing on NSIDC.

23
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2015 Melt Season
« on: April 24, 2015, 10:41:37 AM »
Since my last update we've continued th have a lot of precipitation on the south east coast, which has given a fairly large uptick in DMI's Surface Mass Balance  (ending on Wednesday). This hasn't all been falling as snow though, and NSIDC have shown a couple of small upticks in melt area as seen last week also.

Over the past couple of days DMI have been showing slight SMB loss along the edges of the sheet along the South East Coast, the first signs of the melt season proper beginning, but still being more than offset by precipitation elsewhere.

24
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2015 Melt Season
« on: April 17, 2015, 10:55:11 AM »
The southern tip of Greenland had one of the first bursts of surface melt around the edges of the sheet on 15/4 according to the NSIDC measurements.

DMI showed a large gain in Surface Mass Balance from a storm over the same area, so this may well be rain falling on to the snow (tempuratures were just above freezing according Weather Underground stations in the area)

25
Policy and solutions / Re: But, but, but India...
« on: April 12, 2015, 06:03:09 PM »
Great topic, saw this a couple of days ago, nothing like shooting the messenger!

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/10/greenpeace-bank-accounts-frozen-by-indian-government

Quote
The Indian government has frozen bank accounts of Greenpeace after accusing the international environment campaign group of encouraging “anti-development” protests in the emerging economic power.

26
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Greenland 2015 Melt Season
« on: April 12, 2015, 05:37:37 PM »
NSIDC have bought up their Greenland Today site for this season (hat tip to Andy from San Diego on robertscribblers blog for pointing this out!), and that is when I've started this thread for the past couple of years.

As previous years I'll be posting regular comments on Melt Area (calculated from satellite measurements by NSIDC http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/) and Surface Mass Balance (calculated by a DMI model and reported on Polar Portal http://polarportal.dk/en/groenlands-indlandsis/nbsp/isens-overflade/ and DMI's own site http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/).

The melt season proper will not really start until the middle of May, but we may start seeing the early signs shortly.

A couple of things of note from over the winter.

The statistical relationship between ice sheet reflectivity and total melt loss broke down in 2013 according to this release from DMI http://polarportal.dk/en/nyheder/arkiv/nyheder/ice-sheet-surprises/. Daily albedo images (from satellite data) are reported on the Polar Portal, but they will not be using this to estimate total loss (that is Surface Mass Balance and Glacial Runoff), but instead  this will only be reported on a 3 month+ delay in GRACE Data.

Both Polar Portal and NSIDC have issued a summary of the 2014 melt season
The winter of 2014/2015 has added a lot more Surface Mass Balance than average (although we seem to be gradually returning to mean.http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/surface/SMB_curves_LA_EN_20150411.png. What is striking is that this is almost all on the Southern tip and East coast of Greenland, with the North and West of Greenland significantly below average. http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/surface/SMB_map_LA_acc_EN_20150411.png.

With El Nino providing record tempuratures and sea ice at a very low level we should be in for another interesting melt season.

27
Consequences / Re: North Atlantic Ocean Currents
« on: March 30, 2015, 05:01:38 PM »
Stefan Rahmstorf has issued a follow up blog on RealCimate exploring the possible links between the slow down in the AMOC and the recent Polar Vortex in NE USA.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/03/a-hypothesis-about-the-cold-winter-in-eastern-north-america/

Quote
A hypothesis about the cold winter in eastern North America
The past winter was globally the warmest on record. At the same time it set a new cold record in the subpolar North Atlantic – and it was very cold in the eastern parts of North America. Are these things related?

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 27, 2015, 01:10:55 PM »
Looks like IJIS extent is going to breach the maximum on Saturday if Wipneus figures hold up. That would make it the latest maximum for extent?

Wipneus's Figures refer to CT area which reports 3 days in arrears.  He estimates the change by analysing the base data from NSIDC from which the data is derived.

IJIS figures are only a day in arrears so is not related.  From comments by Neven (and others) I'm expecting IJIS to start falling soon, so a near miss as far as a late maximum is concerned.

29
Consequences / Re: North Atlantic Ocean Currents
« on: March 23, 2015, 06:55:24 PM »
Jason Box comments on his blog (http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/)

Quote
Based on this AMOC reconstruction, the study finds that the slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) after 1975
   
  • appears unprecedented in the past millennium;
  • is expected to continue, even intensify through year 2100, as simulated with the MPI-ESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute in Hamburg (Jungclaus and others, 2013)
  • may result to a large degree from Greenland melting.
     
(Direct link to post is not working at present, but is http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/a-conspicuous-area-of-cold/

30
Consequences / North Atlantic Ocean Currents
« on: March 23, 2015, 06:45:38 PM »
Just found what looks to be a major new paper in nature climate change showing slow down in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC, also known as the gult stream etc), and also showing thisis unprecedented in the last 1000 years.

The paper is paywalled, but there is already several blog posts in what looks to be a coordinated release

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2554.html
Quote
Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation
Stefan Rahmstorf,    Jason E. Box, Georg Feulner,   
    Michael E. Mann, Alexander Robinson,    Scott Rutherford & Erik J. Schaffernicht


Possible changes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) provide a key source of uncertainty regarding future climate change. Maps of temperature trends over the twentieth century show a conspicuous region of cooling in the northern Atlantic. Here we present multiple lines of evidence suggesting that this cooling may be due to a reduction in the AMOC over the twentieth century and particularly after 1970. Since 1990 the AMOC seems to have partly recovered. This time evolution is consistently suggested by an AMOC index based on sea surface temperatures, by the hemispheric temperature difference, by coral-based proxies and by oceanic measurements. We discuss a possible contribution of the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet to the slowdown. Using a multi-proxy temperature reconstruction for the AMOC index suggests that the AMOC weakness after 1975 is an unprecedented event in the past millennium (p > 0.99). Further melting of Greenland in the coming decades could contribute to further weakening of the AMOC.
Stefan Rahmstorf has posted this to Real Climate
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/03/whats-going-on-in-the-north-atlantic/

Video Interviews and commentery by Peter Sinclair



http://climatecrocks.com/2015/03/23/a-nasty-surprise-in-the-greenhouse-new-paper-new-video/

(added direct link to youtube interviews)
PS please move to another section if needed Neven, wasn't sure where this belongs!

31
Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: March 11, 2015, 04:01:38 PM »
With a hat-tip to bassman (from the ?2015 El Nino?" thread), I provide the accompanying image and link indicating that the global mean sea level rise trend line has surged upward in the past few months.  Possible causes include: (a) Net drought on land resulting in more water in the ocean; (b) a weak El Nino increasing the rainfall in the ocean; (c) increased ice melting; and (d) natural variability.

It is a fairy impressive upswing in SLR for 2014. I checked the data file on the site and there is a 8.9mm rise from the first reading of 2014 to the last one in the data set (Day 346) by my calculations. That's almost 3 times the average annual rise of 3.28mm indicated by the trend line.

32
Permafrost / Re: Modelling permafrost carbon feedback
« on: March 10, 2015, 10:43:07 AM »
Excellent summary of current methane release discussion has been posted by robertscribbler

https://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2015/03/09/cause-for-appropriate-concern-over-arctic-methane-overburden-plumes-eruptions-and-large-ocean-craters/

Quote
Concern Over Catastrophic Methane Release — Overburden, Plumes, Eruptions, and Large Ocean Craters

Depending on who you listen to, it’s the end of the world, or it isn’t. A loud and lively debate that springs up in the media every time a new sign of potential methane instability or apparent increasing emission from methane stores is reported by Arctic observational science.

A really long blog post but well worth reading (and rereading) in full, with primers on the various release mechanisms and future release possibilities.

33
Science / Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« on: February 26, 2015, 02:49:27 PM »
CO2now has a list of annual averages for Mauna Loa :

http://co2now.org/current-co2/co2-now/annual-co2.html

2014 CO2 averaged at 398.55. To stay under 400ppm,  2015's growth in CO2 would need to be under 1.45ppm. That would be over a 30% fall from the recent average gains of 2.1ppm. Much as I'd like to see that happen, I cant see it somehow!

The upward portion of the annual CO2 wave often has a significant pause in it, not sure of the reason though.

34
Science / Re: Links regarding Dr Francis' meandering jet stream affects
« on: October 30, 2014, 06:46:55 PM »
Just found a new lecture (23 October 2014) on Youtube.  Nothing really new, but brings further examples from earlier this year into it ( Polar Vortex, UK floods and California Drought.

Hopefully of interest!

Introduction

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Q&A

35
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« on: August 30, 2014, 10:16:31 AM »
NSIDC Melt area remains at 5% - 28/8

DMI shows the heavy precipitation moving up the west coast. Daily SMB Gain increased  to 4.5Gt (29/8)

With the last couple of days its evident we have passed the minimum SMB for the season so I am going to stop the daily updates. If I see any major melt pulses I'll add a further post.

36
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« on: August 29, 2014, 04:25:03 PM »
NSIDC shows melt area at around the same level (5%- 27/8)

DMI shows heavy precipitation in the south. Daily SMB Gain increased to 3.5Gt (28/8)

37
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« on: August 28, 2014, 11:05:51 AM »
Nsidc shows a further drop to 5% (26/8)

DMI shows a similar pattern to yesterday. Daily SMB gain was 1.5 Gt (27/8).

38
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« on: August 27, 2014, 10:35:28 AM »
NSIDC shows melt area dropping to under 10%(25/8).

DMI shows melt decreasing still further. Daily SMB gain has increased to 2Gt(26/8).

39
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« on: August 26, 2014, 10:30:20 AM »
 NSIDC shows melt area falling slightly again, but still around 15% 24/8.

DMI shows a similar picture to yesterday. Daily SMB gain increased slightly to just over 1Gt 25/8.

40
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« on: August 25, 2014, 09:51:42 AM »
NSIDC shows melt area almost unchanged at 15% (23/8)

DMI shows precipitation lessening slightly, with mlet again limited to the souther peninsula.  Daliy SMB gain fell to under 1Gt (24/8).

NSIDC have also posted a summary of the melt season a couple of days ago that I have only just seen.

http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/2014/08/greenlands-summer-the-pressure-is-on-and-off/

Quote
Greenland’s summer: The pressure is on, and off

Melting on the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet in June and July 2014 has been well above the 1981 to 2010 average in most areas, but after a fast start in May, the southern region and the southeastern coast have seen lower-than-average melt. Mid-summer surface melting did not reach higher elevations (above 2000 meters) as often as in the reference period 1981 to 2010. Short bursts of extensive melting were related to periods of high air pressure over the ice sheet favoring sunny conditions, and promoting increased melting in darker areas of the ice sheet (wet snow, bare ice, or dirty snow).

41
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« on: August 24, 2014, 09:36:28 AM »
NSIDC shows melt area halving on 22/8 to 15%. This is still well above the average though.

DMI shows further decreases in melt (with virtually no melt in the north), and another large pulse of precipitation in the west. Daily SMB balance has moved firmly into gain of 2Gt (23/8).

42
Update from the Icelandic Met Office.

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/2947

Quote
A small lava-eruption has been detected under the Dyngjujökull glacier.
The Icelandic Coast Guard airplane TF-SIF is flying over the area with representatives from the Civil Protection and experts from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences. Data from the equipment on board is expected later today.
Data from radars and web-cameras is being received, showing no signs of changes at the surface.
The estimate is that 150-400 meters of ice is above the area.
The aviation color code for the Bárðarbunga volcano has been changed from orange to red.
Some minutes ago (14:04), an earthquake occurred, estimated 4.5 in magnitude.

43
The eruption has started, now breaking news on BBC in the UK

Volcano Cafe have been following the increased activity today :

http://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/2014/08/23/bardarbunga-on-the-move/

Quote
Aviation Colour Code Red has been declared for the Volcano Bárdarbunga and the surrounding area.

Icelandic Met Office helicopter observation confirms ongoing eruption that appears to be small at this time. Keep up with the updates as they come.

44
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« on: August 23, 2014, 10:52:12 AM »
As friv pointed out above, melt area increased to around 30% on 21/8.

DMI shows significantly less melt on 22/8, with similar precipitation.  Daily SMB loss fell to almost zero.

The Albedo map looks really bad at the moment, with the whole of the southern peninsula of greenland showing 15%+ anomaly.

Robertsscribbler has a blog on Greenland on the effects of the recent weather.

http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/08/21/greenlands-late-august-rain-over-melt-ponds-is-a-glacial-outburst-flood-hazard/

Quote
Greenland’s Late August Rain Over Melt Ponds is a Glacial Outburst Flood Hazard

Glacial melt ponding on steep ice faces. Above freezing temperatures for an extended period. Storms delivering rainfall to the glacier surface.

These three events are a bad combination and one that, until recently, we’ve never seen before for Greenland. It is a set of circumstances directly arising from a human-driven warming of the great ice sheet. And it is one that risks a highly violent and energetic event in which melt ponds over-top and glaciers are flushed and ripped apart by surges of water rushing for scores of miles over and through the ice sheet. Major melt pulse events called glacier outburst floods that can result in catastrophically large volumes of water and broken ice chunks issuing from the towering, melting glaciers of Greenland and Antarctica.

45
Officials there don't think there will be an eruption at all:

Guess they wouldn't be 'officials' much longer if they thought otherwise, eh?  :P

Politicians are often forced to be positive, that's why we're in this terrible mess, IMO. Just look at this map and at the quake log, showing a very recent almost 5 earth quake at the volcano:

These are quotes from the volcanologists not politicians, and earthquake storms do die out without their being eruptions. They are waking a fine line between needless worry and being overly cautious.  shouting the end is nigh at every shake is counterproductive (especially in Iceland that has minor quakes all time).

Evacuations have been ordered nearby in case there is an eruption but there is no guarantee there will be one. Volcanos can shake for weeks before an eruption, which may or may not surface. When if it does it may be a minor eruption.


46
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« on: August 22, 2014, 10:37:00 AM »
Basic melt area increased again on  20/8 to around 22%.

DMI shows larger areas of light precipitation on 21/8.daily SMB loss fell back slightly to 3.5Gt.

Both measurements are exceptionally high for this time of year. NSIDC shows melt area outside of its 2sd area. DMI shows us well outside its 1990-2011 historic range in grey (although they do drop the highest and lowest values for some reason).

47
Lots of debate on this happening over at Volcano Cafe http://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/ with daily updates and discussion.  Looks to be fairly well balanced even if most of it goes right over my head!

48
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« on: August 21, 2014, 12:35:25 PM »
NSIDC melt area rebounded back to the 20% Mark on 19/8.

DMI shows heavy melt continuing despite the precipitation. Daily SMB loss was more or less unchanged at 4.5Gt.

Another confirmation of our impact on Greenland Crandles. At what point on the exponential melt curve will the world start doing something about it?

49
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« on: August 20, 2014, 09:15:23 AM »
NSIDC shows a slight decrease to under 20% melt area (18/8).

DMI shows the heavy precipitation moving north and lessening significantly. Melt is still strong, so we have a large uptick in mass loss. Daily SMB loss was 4.5Gt on 19/8. This has more than reversed the alcoholic days of gain.

50
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2014 Melt Season
« on: August 19, 2014, 11:50:39 AM »
NSIDC shows melt right across the saddle on 17/8. Melt area increased to over 20% of the sheet.

DMI shows extremely heavy precipitation moving north again. Daily SMB gain was similar to yesterday at 1Gt(18/8).

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