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Arctic sea ice / Re: NSIDC 2020 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« on: July 01, 2020, 07:54:25 AM »
September average 3 - 3.5 million sq kms
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Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Melting Season Predictions
« on: May 16, 2020, 01:23:13 AM »
September daily minimum 2.5 - 2.75 million sq kms
International commerce …..and particularly aviation ….looks like it will struggle to ramp up again for several months yet.
The current pandemic could cause lasting climatic effects long-term if it accelerates the transition to a low carbon economy
International commerce …..and particularly aviation ….looks like it will struggle to ramp up again for several months yet.
The current pandemic could cause lasting climatic effects long-term if it accelerates the transition to a low carbon economy
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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 15, 2020, 09:02:24 AM »
@ pauldry600......2012 may remain at outlier....but for how much longer?
Current CO2 @ Mauna Loa 416 ppm
34 ppm to 450 ppm ….. 3ppm per year x 11.333 years = 34 ppm
450 ppm = Tipping Point
Current CO2 @ Mauna Loa 416 ppm
34 ppm to 450 ppm ….. 3ppm per year x 11.333 years = 34 ppm
450 ppm = Tipping Point
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Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: May 19, 2019, 06:55:01 AM »
IF .....the 2020 average drops to 2million sq kms .....and we have an extreme loss .....similar to 2012 ...then we could be close to 1 million sq kms at the minimum.
The 2020's are only 7 months away.
The 2020's are only 7 months away.
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Antarctica / Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« on: May 16, 2019, 07:58:44 AM »
all well and good .....just missed the bit about the rate of GHG emissions being 10x () greater than any historic record
) greater than any historic record
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Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: May 13, 2019, 10:55:58 AM »
not sure if this is the right place but.......CO2 has hit 415 ppm at Mauna Loa for the first time ever
https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/
https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/
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Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: May 06, 2019, 10:52:47 AM »
the ice melt will happen much faster than the rebound of the land.....for example parts of Scotland are still rising as an after effect of the ice sheets melting
https://www.nature.scot/landforms-and-geology/scotlands-rocks-landforms-and-soils/landforms/coasts/present-and-future-sea-levels
https://www.nature.scot/landforms-and-geology/scotlands-rocks-landforms-and-soils/landforms/coasts/present-and-future-sea-levels
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Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 04, 2019, 05:11:59 PM »
@ dnem....it was meant as an ironic comment......the opposite of comforting
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Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 04, 2019, 05:40:41 AM »
@ Sark ...we probably have years of stability yet.......perhaps as many as 12 years....
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Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 04, 2019, 01:27:11 AM »
DON"T PANIC !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
YET.
YET.
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Antarctica / Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« on: April 30, 2019, 09:59:49 AM »
@ Sleepy.......+1
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Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: April 30, 2019, 06:54:53 AM »
2016 ice melt 28th April - 3rd June = 2.06 million sq kms
divided by 36 days = 57,222 sq kms per day .....unless I stuffed up the maths
divided by 36 days = 57,222 sq kms per day .....unless I stuffed up the maths
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Arctic sea ice / Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« on: April 28, 2019, 06:55:03 AM »
losing a million sq kms per decade @ at the annual minimum in September.......at that rate the Arctic will be ice free sometime in the 2030's ....if not before
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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 10, 2018, 03:20:16 AM »
@ Oren......WOW!!
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Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 13, 2018, 03:35:20 AM »
Historical reconstruction of TSI
http://lasp.colorado.edu/home/sorce/files/2011/09/TIM_TSI_Reconstruction-1.png
http://lasp.colorado.edu/home/sorce/files/2011/09/TIM_TSI_Reconstruction-1.png
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Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 11, 2018, 11:26:48 PM »
la nina/ neutral year .....yet again flirting with lowest on record levels .....Miocene here we come?
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Arctic sea ice / Re: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018
« on: April 17, 2018, 04:37:15 AM »
"If we can keep temperature increase to well below 2 degrees....."
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/13/avoid-at-all-costs-gulf-streams-record-weakening-prompts-warnings-global-warming
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/13/avoid-at-all-costs-gulf-streams-record-weakening-prompts-warnings-global-warming
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Arctic sea ice / Re: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018
« on: April 17, 2018, 12:57:33 AM »19
Arctic sea ice / Re: First year PIOMAS volume below 1000km^3 poll 2018
« on: April 17, 2018, 12:06:33 AM »
if the gulf stream continues to weaken ......or shutdown ......won't that significantly reduce warm water transport to the arctic?
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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: April 13, 2018, 01:47:39 AM »
Thanks el cid @ #300
That graph must have a significant trend line
That graph must have a significant trend line
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Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 26, 2018, 08:46:40 AM »
its still , theoretically, summer down here.......although it has cooled off somewhat in the last couple of weeks
NZ had its hottest January on record this year
NZ had its hottest January on record this year
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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: December 18, 2017, 11:41:43 PM »
Thanks Pavel.......looks like there is a spot near the Arctic coast of Alaska that is approaching 30 degrees C above normal
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Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 03, 2017, 08:13:37 PM »
@ gerontocrat......moving back towards the pack......agreed.....but still well below average
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Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: October 17, 2017, 10:28:26 PM »
looks like parts of the Ross Ice Sheet are close to + 20 degrees
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Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: August 02, 2017, 08:30:36 AM »
September is Spring down here..........daylight hours are rapidly increasing.....even now .. 02/08.... we are getting one minute extra per day
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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 01, 2017, 07:20:09 AM »
@ Oren......thanks for that map.......are the Chukchi and East Siberian seas really that shallow?
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Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: January 20, 2017, 08:33:51 AM »
@ tt....thanks for all your good work.....it is much appreciated by us lesser mortals!!
re Bering Sea Storm.....is there precedent for storms at this time of year......or are we seeing something new ?
re Bering Sea Storm.....is there precedent for storms at this time of year......or are we seeing something new ?
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Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 19, 2017, 08:04:53 AM »
30 days of melt season left??
@ 100,000 sq kms per day ??
= zero sea ice 20 th February 2017??
@ 100,000 sq kms per day ??
= zero sea ice 20 th February 2017
??
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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: January 19, 2017, 07:59:15 AM »
great map logicman........interesting to see ice blocking Hudson Bay!!
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Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 13, 2017, 12:03:50 PM »
@ tigertown ....yes .....sorry ....I was referring to the post by Frankendoodle .....saying 50 thousand ish per day would take us to a new record low
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Antarctica / Re: Poll for 2017 IJIS daily minimum Antarctic sea ice extent
« on: January 13, 2017, 06:05:37 AM »
changed to less than 2 million sq kms
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Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 13, 2017, 06:02:41 AM »
@ tigertown.....so that's 3 days times 50 ish
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Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: January 10, 2017, 03:26:05 PM »
@ Jim....get out while your house is still worth something.......nobody knows when the run on the bank will start but the smart money gets out first
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Antarctica / Re: Potential Collapse Scenario for the WAIS
« on: January 09, 2017, 11:17:53 AM »
thanks for that aslr.........30 mm sea level rise per year would certainly get my attention
but have I missed it, or has the increase in sea level rise from 3mm / year to 5 mm/year not been verified yet?
but have I missed it, or has the increase in sea level rise from 3mm / year to 5 mm/year not been verified yet?
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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: January 07, 2017, 09:32:40 PM »
thanks for that FOW......brilliantly clear map!!
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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: January 05, 2017, 08:49:01 PM »
@ bill fothergill ......thanks for that Bill
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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: January 05, 2017, 08:06:16 PM »
@ bill fothergill............looking at your longterm graph this is perhaps an argument to be made that AGW started approximately 8000 years ago with the spread of agriculture as witnessed by the significant spike in temperature at that time .....and that our activities since then have held the temperature up higher than they would have been without our ever increasing disruption of the planets ecosystems
http://history.aip.org/climate/impacts.htm
http://history.aip.org/climate/impacts.htm
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Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 05, 2017, 09:30:10 AM »
if you look at the long term temperature graph ....for global average temperature...the step up after the 1998 El Nino is obvious...only the la Nina years of 1999 and 2000 are below the previous global record year 1997.......and since 1998 the positive feedbacks have started to have an increasing effect
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Arctic sea ice / Re: Annual temperatures in the Arctic
« on: January 03, 2017, 09:43:47 PM »
it would appear we were lucky that August 2016 was only 22nd warmest
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Antarctica / Re: Poll for 2017 IJIS daily minimum Antarctic sea ice extent
« on: January 02, 2017, 09:15:20 PM »
2-2.25
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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: January 01, 2017, 11:29:24 PM »
@ sigmetnow......thanks for that post.....particularly the graph showing annual temperature average at Utqiagvik
amazing range from the coldest year in the 1960's ...
amazing range from the coldest year in the 1960's ...
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Arctic sea ice / Re: Choosing a Base to compare ASI lost on PIOMAS Volume
« on: December 27, 2016, 05:14:31 AM »
the only valid period offered is 1981-2010......as that is the only 30 year period on offer
....otherwise I would have suggested 1979-2008
as I'm sure most people know 30 years is the accepted time period for validating changes in climate
....otherwise I would have suggested 1979-2008
as I'm sure most people know 30 years is the accepted time period for validating changes in climate
43
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: December 19, 2016, 02:00:01 PM »
followed by much lower average Spring temperatures over Australia .....admittedly only down to the long term average
http://www.bom.gov.au/tmp/cc/tmean.aus.0911.29881.hires.png
http://www.bom.gov.au/tmp/cc/tmean.aus.0911.29881.hires.png
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Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: December 19, 2016, 01:54:40 PM »
Winter rainfall over Australia was extreme this year ...possibly caused by the southern ocean lows moving slightly northward
http://www.bom.gov.au/tmp/cc/rranom.aus.0608.58473.hires.png
http://www.bom.gov.au/tmp/cc/rranom.aus.0608.58473.hires.png
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Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: December 15, 2016, 07:28:41 PM »
@ tigertown......re Weddell Sea ....my understanding is that the peninsula protects it from the prevailing westerly winds
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Arctic sea ice / Re: Ice free predictions and their uncertainty
« on: December 07, 2016, 08:25:09 PM »
what would Trump's reaction be if he was told Wipneus's graph was actually US retail sales , for example?
or the number of people booking into his hotels?
or the number of people booking into his hotels?
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Arctic sea ice / Re: Hansens predictions for Future Ice
« on: May 08, 2016, 08:53:49 AM »
@ tor
the glaciers in nz are all retreating
the glaciers in nz are all retreating
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Arctic sea ice / Re: When Will We See <1,000 km^2 Arctic Sea Ice Extent
« on: May 27, 2015, 07:08:22 AM »
and I've just read the latest ENSO report from the Australian BOM 
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