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Messages - Michael J

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Arctic sea ice / Re: How soon could we go ice free?
« on: May 29, 2017, 10:21:55 AM »
I think that an ice-free minimum is possible but it would take a perfect storm of weather events. I think the slow start this year probably means that it wont be that extreme but possible next year

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 21, 2017, 12:26:13 AM »
Before we get too deep into melting season, would some of the more seasoned posters mind giving a handful of things they will be keeping an eye on over the next few months to judge how 'good' or 'bad' the melt is going?

This will be my (and I suspect some others) first melting season so it'd be nice to know what to expect in general, as well as what to watch coming from such an extreme freezing season.

This is my fourth year and my advice is don't judge. It only takes a few weeks of the right/wrong kind of weather to turn a bad/good year into a good/bad year.

Also even the seasoned observers get surprised, over the short time I've been watching it the melt has changed. In the first year it was all melt ponds and large cracks the the ice cap seemed solid. Now (from a distance) it is more mush and can flow with the winds and currents.

Consequences / Re: Ice-free Arctic
« on: February 20, 2017, 11:54:03 PM »
You will never convince the deniers - but I think that presenting good factual science will chip away at the undecided. Eventually the politicians who deny climate change will either get voted out or "see" the light.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: January 19, 2017, 10:32:53 AM »
The Oil and Gas industry have invested heavily into right wing governments who will subsidise any arctic drilling.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2016 Year end IJIS Extent predictions
« on: November 26, 2016, 12:04:15 AM »
i'm seeing it about like Oran -- 11.9 is my guess atm.   Of course things have been so strange, nothing would surprise me now.

Having a bin from just under 12 to just over 12 would probably capture the majority of people by the sounds of it.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: November 25, 2016, 11:53:27 PM »
The major problem is that the Climate Change denial is part of a particular political movement and well funded by the energy industry. In the Australian experience it had originally almost universal acceptance. Then money went from the mining industry into our right wing party and then acceptance went down to under 50%. Now acceptance is slowly but steadily growing such that the right-wing party (LNP) is not able to deny it as policy (even though individuals in the party do) .  However, the LNP does everything it can to delay actually doing anything effective.
I think eventually acceptance of Climate Change will be so high that it will be political suicide for a party not to do something.

I think after the next city to have a disaster. There wont be a lot of minds changed but the roar from the people who accept climate change may actually move the politicians to do something.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: November 23, 2016, 11:20:55 PM »
Their last attempt was at a 'Arctic ice stages record recovery!!!' back in Sept but surely folk know that when ice drops to near record lows it will 'appear' to put on ice really fast as the Central Arctic rapidly cools?

As it is they've now lost their favourite go to " oh look! a Squirrel" as I'm sure the current MSM coverage of the 'extreme' low ice around both North/South Poles means we all know how dire things currently are?

If the weather cools and the ice rapidly grows they will get noisy again. I have noticed a few saying that the arctic was ice free some distant millennia in the past so why the worry

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2016 Year end IJIS Extent predictions
« on: November 21, 2016, 09:48:43 PM »
I think a few people made my mistake and looked at the wrong graph. I changed my vote back to 11.5+. I think that there will be a rapid freeze of very thin ice.

I was using the right figures the first time apparently. Moved it back to 12-12.5. I think that it could be the lowest but not by a lot

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2016 Year end IJIS Extent predictions
« on: November 21, 2016, 10:50:29 AM »
I think a few people made my mistake and looked at the wrong graph. I changed my vote back to 11.5+. I think that there will be a rapid freeze of very thin ice.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: September 09, 2016, 01:31:49 AM »
Between the ice getting worse....and worse...and worse;  the temperatures going higher....and higher...and higher; the oceans getting higher...and higher...and higher:   The deniers really are "running out of room to hide."

And we are getting pretty damn close to a time when they are going to be "called out" by John Q Public (not JUST the scientists and the activists).

The deniers can continue to say that 2 + 2 = 3.......but eventually (and by eventually I mean SOON).....most people are going to know they are FOS (a scientific acronym for Full Of Shit:).

It will be interesting enough to see how the melt season ends up over the coming couple of weeks....but the global temperatures in coming months will also be interesting.

We ARE in uncharted waters.....and more "unusual" things are in our future in coming months and years.
The latest from the denialists that I am seeing about the arctic is that thousands of years ago that the arctic was quite often ice-free and that we are just coming down from an unusually cold period. The second thing I'm seeing is that they are doing what they did with 1998 temperatures and draw a line from 2007 and say that there is no downward trend in extent, just natural variability.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 06, 2016, 02:39:33 AM »
We will have an "ice-free summer" at the pole in a matter of a few years.   So as a matter of interest, what will be the focus thereafter?  Whatever it is, shouldn't we be looking at it in earnest now?

I think that the first time we hit it, it will be an outlier like 2012 and 2007 were.  We could then have many years before the second year. I think that this is the reason that IPCC changed their definition of ice-free to being 5years of minimums below 1m square km instead of the first year reached.

However, there could be feedback mechanisms both positive and negative that could change this.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Gambling on The Ice
« on: June 08, 2016, 02:22:37 AM »
If you are talking short term, I would invest in energy/mining companies that already have permits to explore the arctic. I also remember reading a few years ago that some companies were buying land up north for ports. I would look for these companies and speculate on them. Long term, yes I would get out of fossil fuels.

Nuclear is a difficult one because the debate is so polarised. The most sensible reason I have heard to stay away from it is the long period of time it takes from go to a finished power station. Investors would be wary of putting up money because the station could be redundant before it was finished.

I think that if the ice becomes mobile that the pole could be ice free with current minimum extents. There is certainly enough open water in September for the ice to move into.

A new flash, using St. Lawrence Island and closing off the side to Russia forcing Pacific water into a battle with Norton Sound's input BEFORE the closure of the main strait should create a large vortex such that most of the volume exits east.

Just a flash, consider that in the models.

Politically I'm working a a design that Russia can implement w/o cooperation by the USA to own the shipping canals as a strategy to get the fkn USA into a serious role in this to put it on the front-burner as the hot-ticket item.

Already sent the letter to Putin, consider that fossilites, playing aces this is for real I care not your agendas my agenda is to restore the sea-ice in the Eastern Arctic Basin or Bust, Bernie & Jill will support me here in the USA.

It's on the table, it's now an international issue, deal with it, if you can fake geophysics you have my kudos, not hate & I'll respond to blow away your triviality.
Whats Putin's position on Global Warming? I would have pegged him as a denier.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: May 09, 2016, 11:43:25 PM »
I don't think there will be a panic this year. Not even if there would be no sea ice left in the Arctic Ocean. That's just too abstract and too far away. Panic is a much more emotional reaction, and I think it needs an element of feeling personally threatened.

I don't expect such a panic until the weather patterns are seriously out of whack. And it will make the already bad situation much worse.

Maybe, just maybe, the people in power will wake up to the growing danger before that becomes inevitable. One can dream, can't one?
I think that pressure will come when the normally conservative voters in the countryside (Farmers, Hunters etc) notice permanent changes.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: May 03, 2016, 11:03:54 PM »

I just hope that we will not break the 2012 record, for the sake of the humanity.

But if we do, I hope it will be with a great margin (no ice in the Arctic) so that the news will reach the general public.

A politician will just say how some city or other had their coldest winter in X years so AGW is a hoax

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: April 16, 2016, 08:24:54 AM »
Meanwhile would it surprise you to learn that several of the usual suspects have been surreally suggesting that "Global sea ice makes a strong comeback!".

I think they're all on the same email group from HQ (Koch Brothers:).  Another site.....which I have posted to has the same thing.  Of course.....they did the same thing in the other "recovery periods) as well in prior years.

I think they will be much more persistent this year.....especially in the this is an election year.  The fossil fuel companies and their paid bloggers are pushing (lying) hard...even when it makes no sense whatever.  Koch/Watts/others can only keep the sunshine of truth hidden for so long....  I encourage others to post FACTS and SCIENCE to their sites.....
I think the opposite. With a majority of voters now believing in climate change I think the GOP will want these people to STFU until after the election.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« on: February 22, 2016, 10:50:59 PM »
I don't know whether this should go into the stupid questions. While the trend in summer minimums is obvious, is it possible that the winter maximum will become more a result of weather rather than climate change.

While the volume is dropping a cold snap could result in a dramatic increase in area and the more open water before the cold snap, the more ice could form. I know that there was a thread about this in summer but I am surprised that nobody has spoken up about this here,

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 18, 2015, 01:05:00 AM »
The "concentration map" provided by Wipneus above....shows a LOT of area that has lost MORE than 7% concentration.

Next couple weeks could prove interesting......

Between THAT.....and the Antarctic sea ice level BELOW the average level from 1979 - 2010....this is not setting up to be a good year for those who don't believe in science (Snthony Watts, Joe Bastardi, FOX Noise, Sean Hannity, almost all the Republican candidates for US President, etc.)

They are REALLY going to hate it when the most important issue in the 2016 presidential election is climate change...:)

What happens NEXT YEAR when the ice sheet takes a dive to new record lows TWO MONTHS BEFORE THE ELECTION?

Next 13 months will be interesting.....

Do we have an idea of how much of the pink areas is actual ice loss and how much is it the ice just rearranging itself?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: August 02, 2015, 11:43:03 PM »
Guys, I find the unadorned use of "bad" and "good" as descriptors of melt conditions to be quite confusing, especially since they're used oppositely by different people.

Apologies. I am a (rational) optimist. I hope people use 'good' to mean ice retention. If you don't then it might imply you have spent to long arguing with climate change deniers!

However, another low ice year may jolt Governments into doing more

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: June 12, 2015, 02:26:11 AM »
@Michael J

I'd say we're fairly close to the point were a perfect storm of good weather for the whole year might just do it. You'd need a low refreeze season and a full on melt season. The odds for any given year are fairly low, but they get better every year as more heat is trapped in the system.

We will have new lows and rebound years, but the trend is to lower ice coverage, and in the no too distant future, we will have an 'event'. You've certainly picked an interesting time to start ice-watching!

Thanks for the welcome. My background is risk analysis (first in power stations then in finance) and one thing I learnt is that probability of an event that hasn't yet occured tends to be a lot higher than what people initially calculate. This has caught us in major plant failures and all of the financial crashes.
In short  I'd bet that the first ice free year will take everybody by surprise or conversely a large recovery.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: June 11, 2015, 02:05:29 AM »
Hi, I've just started following this forum. I can see how weather conditions have a large effect on the ice melt. I was curious whether it is currently possible to have an ice free Arctic through a series of unfortunate weather patterns or hasn't the earth warmed up enough as yet.

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