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Messages - Tommy

Pages: 1 [2]
51
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 26, 2015, 02:10:12 AM »
Quote
I suppose >0.5m thick and >30% concentration are more appropriate than 1m and 60%, when trying to predict which ice will survive the season. (I'm just throwing these numbers up in the air based on intuition).
-- oren

I agree,
Thanks for the tip.
I just chose those numbers as a guess. I thought the one metre might be a bit high when deleting, but I am a bit bias because I feel that there are multiple more, or stronger, factors affecting melt this year than in previous years, but maybe not.
And that 60% may be a bit high, so I was hoping that would compensate for my disdain for 1m ice  :).
So it makes sense what you are saying.
It's getting pretty easy for me to do these now, so I might try both, once or twice a week.
That way, by the end of the season, it might give an idea of which is more accurate.
Thanks for the suggestion.
Tommy.



52
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 25, 2015, 09:51:29 PM »
Quote
That depends on how reliable the DMI thickness model is.
-- Neven


Yes, I was wondering about that.
It seems more conservative than other models I have looked at - shows ice thicker than others (but I haven't seen a lot). And I wonder if the colors have changed over the years.
If these maps are somewhat accurate, and the colors haven't changed, that combination for 2008  really says a lot I think, and clears up a lot of things.

I'll make one a week, to see how the combo map changes over the next 3 weeks or more.

Thanks for posting that image Neven, I had looked everywhere for similar.


Cesium61
And thanks for the answer about the thick ice as well.
That video is great to see !


Tommy



53
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 25, 2015, 09:20:22 PM »
Here are the untouched source images for the 13 August 2008 so that people can see why it became like that when I combined the two, taking out ice below 1m thick, and below 60% concentration.
Did I do something wrong?
Tommy

54
Arctic sea ice / 2008 and 2015 Thickness and Concentration Combined
« on: July 25, 2015, 09:17:31 PM »
Oh My God !

Thanks Neven!

If I have got this right,
In the top image I have deleted ice above about 1m thick, and deleted that from concentration map from 13 Aug 2008, and deleted ice above about 60& concentration from the thickness map on that day, and combined the two, filled deleted areas with sea blue -- as if areas below 1m and below 60% concentration are gone.

Ok, there is 3 weeks difference here, the 2008 image from August 13th, but I can't see anything like that happening in these combined maps for this year in 2015?
Does anyone think 2015 could look like that 2008 combined image I made, within 3 weeks or a month?

Wow.

I'll put the source images for the two 2008 images so that you can see why, when you take out ice below a metre, and ice under 60% concentration, and combine them, that is what you get.



55
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 25, 2015, 08:13:15 PM »
Quote
But I'm sure there are more instances. As soon as the winds turn, that ice is going back. But if the winds don't turn... Ah, that's when it gets interesting.  :)
- Neven

Thanks for clearing that up Neven, makes sense now.

I thought it was interesting to put the two together side by side.
What do people think of the slightly different concentration levels in these, but slightly different over a very wide area?
It seems less concentrated towards Beaufort in mid-August 2008, but less concentrated everywhere else this year so far?

Patrick's point is interesting.
Quote
Currently, the ice that is sitting on top is all broken and fractured.. It looks like it is sitting on top of a blender getting chewed up...  the 5 meter thick multi year ice as it will be ground to pieces at the surface and eroded away by the warmer waters below it..



56
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 25, 2015, 07:47:56 PM »
Quote
Sorry, here's the link to the page in question

Ok, it is showing up now.
Thanks Neven.
Makes sense now

57
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 25, 2015, 07:28:04 PM »
Quote
There is currently a low off the NE coast of Greenland correct?
-- 12Patrick

Yes.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-93.08,84.97,3000
[/quote]

58
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 25, 2015, 07:10:15 PM »
Thanks Neven
Your image didn't show up though ?
And I can't see it in the link :-(
Would love to see that image
?

59
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 25, 2015, 06:40:53 PM »
Can anyone show me a pic/image from a previous year where that ice has dislodged completely from that area along the Canadian islands?

I made this GIF which ranges through Aug, July, mid-Sept., for 2007, 2012, 2013, and finally, yesterday.

I can't find any image that shows that big white gap.

Because this is Thickness, then that gap obviously has more ice in it than shows here, but I can't find any that show any gap anything like that, and the same is true on satellite photos from those and other years I looked at, even by the lowest extent of seasons, and the gap does not show for ice extent for all those years either. If no white or even purple shows up at that point in previous years on a thickness map, would suggest there was never a significant gap there before - an actual gap in ice, because any thinning there in previous years still had some pretty thick ice on it, joined to the Fjords.
The lowest I can find was a tiny blip of 1m ice, nearest to the Beaufort Sea, in early Sept. 2012, No white, and a just tiny blip of thin ice compared to this.

Therefore, are we in uncharted territory for that area?
Even in lean years there was thick ice on the ocean joined to thick ice in the Fjords of that area.

I'm probably missing something.

Below the gif is Satellite from July 23 this year.
I colored open Ocean water in red around that gap area. As you can see it extends far eastwards towards Lincoln Sea, and that does not show up like that on any other Satellite photos from previous years that I have seen?
Any answers?

http://satwagraphics.com/2017_2008-_2012.gif


60
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 25, 2015, 03:42:20 PM »
Question for anyone.

1. Now that all that thickest ice has dislodged from the coast, where will it go?
Or will it just float back in to the coast in a couple of weeks?

2. Does red represent the oldest ice. or just the most bunched up, piling up over a few years?


From July 24 - thickness and volume tab.
http://polarportal.dk/en/havisen-i-arktis/nbsp/sea-ice-extent/



61
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 25, 2015, 03:35:12 PM »

Is volume plummeting?

62
Arctic sea ice / The Great Shear.
« on: July 25, 2015, 05:36:43 AM »
The big shear off the continent from July 4 to today.
Gif video grab I made today.
You have to ignore the jumping clouds, to focus on the ice shearing off the whole Canadian coast.

http://satwagraphics.com/testing/arctic_shearing.gif
.

63
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 25, 2015, 02:41:47 AM »
Quote
slow wing
Surely they are clouds rather than waves. Check out your distance scale to find out how big those features are.

Lol ! Yes. Clouds.
Still a cool movement of ice.
Would love to try kayaking up in that coastal shear one day (with a guide, not too far from a town, a town with a pub. )





64
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 25, 2015, 01:42:45 AM »
Check out the big waves...
(not waves I was just told. :-) Clouds. )
... in my GIF here, just 2 days, yesterday and today.
See the ice being shunted west in 24 hours.

Canadian coastline with Arctic Ocean near Greenland (not sure what that interface between northern coasts of the islands and the Arctic Ocean is called.? )
I just found out the name of that little island in the middle-left of the image -- Meighan Island and the big one on the right is Axel Heiberg Island



.

65
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 24, 2015, 09:59:23 PM »
Quote
As I see it at the moment. The Canadian Arctic Archipelago will be be more or less sea ice less sometimes in August, if any ice that will be drifting from above. The area will beat 2012!!!
-- Espen

I agree.
There are so many factors coming together this year that were not there, or not as strong  in 2012. And multiple stronger factors, not just one or two.
And I suspect there will be much more of this open water on the Arctic Ocean showing up soon, as seen in the image on the right below (from screenshots I took from the intersection of the Arctic Ocean and the northern Canadian eastern coastal islands, near Greenland), but this water will open up all along the coastal region, and except maybe Northern Greenland.

Not much of the ice-pack will be left attached to any land within 2-3 weeks, except some crumbles bunching up here and there (barring a massive cyclone or something, crushing everything back in.)

Tommy.

66
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 24, 2015, 09:33:17 PM »
These 2 recent articles about Greenland relate to Arctic.
Unless August gets cold, the whole Arctic ice-pack could be floating free, melting fast around the edges.
How does Greenland melt affect the Arctic?
Anyone?

Greenland's undercut glaciers melting faster than thought
http://phys.org/news/2015-07-greenland-undercut-glaciers-faster-thought.html

Greenland Experiences Sudden Onset of Melt Season
http://app3.scientificamerican.com/article/greenland-experiences-sudden-onset-of-melt-season/?mobileFormat=true

67
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 24, 2015, 07:49:16 PM »
Quote
It might be better to look for cloud free days for 2012 and 2014 than to stick to the exact date.
---Andreas T

Thanks for info. Andreas and Chris.
Makes sense. Thanks.
You are right, the 2012 image was messed up. They had a different satellite view angle, with their new map overlaid, so I had the wrong place !

Here below then is the same area from 25 July 2012 in the first image below.
Somewhat similar to yesterday, but not as much open water as yesterday.
Similar story all the way down the northern coast (islands), with high coverage for late July 2012, and 23 July 2015 lowest coverage since 2012 (2013 being a bit more like 2015 in this regard, but still nothing like this year with all that open water this year.)

23 July 2015 below that for comparison.

But good to know it is just normal flow folks. Thanks.
All that northern Canadian coastline today looks more like late August, early September in previous years, only more so.
I enjoyed seeing these changes from year to year.

Tommy

68
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 24, 2015, 06:16:26 PM »
New combo map today.
I combined the latest maps from July 23rd for ice-thickness with the July 23rd map for ice concentration.
I subtracted ice under 1 metre from both.
I then subtracted the ice under 60% concentration from both.
Filled the deleted areas with that blue they use for the sea.
Just for fun. Not saying this means much. Just interesting to see major mass of ice.

69
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 24, 2015, 01:45:02 PM »
Wet, wet, wet.
This is along the north Canadian coastline where the islands meets the icepack.
There is the exact same wet watery coastline all the way from the Beaufort Sea to Lincoln Sea near Greenland, and although the sea-ice is intact on Greenland, even Greenland looks much wetter than previous years.
(also, see my gif animation of the coastline posted in my previous post, or just zoom in on WorldView yourself)
Is this normal?
This looks completely unprecedented to me (for the last 4 years anyway.)
Or it just never happened in the last 4 years, but is not that unusual?

The top one is from yesterday.
The whole northern Canadian coastline looks like this right now.
The rest are the same date, same region, 2014, 2013, with 2012 at the bottom.
2013 is the closest, but it is nothing like this year.

70
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 24, 2015, 05:56:24 AM »
Is this normal for this time of year?
Broken up all along the northern coast of Canadian islands.
Thanks.

See animated gif below. Zoom in to see better. (CTRL +)

http://satwagraphics.com/testing/july-23-2015.gif

71
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 24, 2015, 03:44:32 AM »
Quote
"I don't think we will end up like this though - I doubt the Atlantic side will melt out to that extent."
-- SlowWing

Yes, I don't think it will end up like that either. Just interesting to see where the real bulk of the ice is, but I don't think it has much significance. As you say, the Atlantic side will likely stay fairly intact by the looks of things. I wish the concentration map went back to this date in 2012, then I could do a similar comparison for 2012.

72
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 24, 2015, 01:54:45 AM »
Quote
Villabolo
How many square kilometers does that add up to?


I don't really know. Would be hard to estimate I think.
Tommy

73
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 23, 2015, 09:55:22 PM »
Ok, I hope I got this right.

Just for fun.
From July 22 thickness map, I subtracted all ice below about a metre thick (maybe < 1.5m)
Then from July 22 concentration map, I subtracted all ice below about 60% concentration.
Then combined the 2 maps (that's why it's a weird diamond shape, because they are different orientations in the originals.)

So, if I have this right, this should show ice that is more than a metre thick (I guess, going up to 5m thick in reds there),  and is also over 60% intact across the surface.

I just thought it would make an interesting graphic. (if I have it right)
It is very approximate, but please let me know if I am doing something wrong and I will change it to proper method.

I took the images from these two sources (thickness & volume on one, concentration in the other), subtracted thinner ice and subtracted concentration lower than about 60%.
http://polarportal.dk/en/havisen-i-arktis/nbsp/sea-ice-extent
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/

I wonder if there is another source (for a visual) that does this on a regular basis?

74
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 23, 2015, 06:51:20 PM »
Quote
Big chunk of algal activity ! must smell very bad !
--- Laurent.

And that smell is a greenhouse gas, no?

75
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 23, 2015, 06:15:52 PM »
Quote
So my conclusion, flow from the tropics to Arctic in July, not that big a deal.  Flow from tropics to Arctic in January - definitely a big deal.
- jdallen.

Interesting post. Makes sense. Like I said when I posted it, probably not a big effect at this time, but just interesting to see. I'll keep a daily eye/screenshot on it.
Been watching the RRR for over a year now, on the same wind map. Unbelievably resilient most of the time.
Tommy.


76
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 23, 2015, 05:19:23 PM »
Quote
"Please do me a favour and calculate the time you would need to hold this pattern stable so that at a grossly overestimated streaming velocity of 40km/h would need to reach the Canadian archipelago from the Carribean..." --
plinius


Ok. Just did it n my head.
Answer: Not that long. Warm air is moving north along that pattern. No question about it.
The part at the north is taking warm air from the part from the south almost all the time in late spring and summer, the part south of that is taking warm air from the part from the south of it almost all of the time in late spring and summer, the part south of that is is taking warm air from the part from the south of it almost all of the time in late spring summer ... and so on...

77
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 23, 2015, 03:26:51 PM »
Probably not a huge effect on Arctic, but I've seen this pattern many times lately, where warm air snakes all the way up from the Caribbean. Basically a continuous direct flow of wind from deep south to north that I've seen many times in the wind pattern. I put arrows to show the wind directions that are indicated on the wind map today.
Tommy

78
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 23, 2015, 03:23:35 AM »
Thanks for the answers everyone.
I appreciate the new info. and will go over those fully in the coming days, but before that last ice-bridge to Russia breaks through just one more random thought.

I don’t have a comparison for every year, but certainly those river watersheds involved in the western arctic had little impact on the region in 2012 compared to the same date in 2015. So did they get masses more rain this year or something, or is the Pacific Blob seeping in with warm water at the surface to make such a difference?

For many places in the world, what the main current is doing is not always the same as what the surface is doing.
The surface is the main thing here, maybe not the main ocean currents? The surface can flow in different directions than the main deep water currents, but maybe the Arctic Ocean is not deep enough for that to happen?

However, with the oceans becoming warmer the surface temps are becoming more homogenized even compared to 2012, so the differential in surface temperatures is not the same as it was even in 2012. With these more homogenized surface temperatures that the greenhouse effect will inevitably lead to, then the idea that the Pacific Blob warm water could flow over the surface of the Arctic more easily than in previous years, and in the hottest year on record so far for month to month, is not far-fetched. The main ocean currents will still be in play at depth (but weaker), but on the surface the homogeneity of temperatures between Pacific, Arctic, and Atlantic will have much less differential and therefore much less forced flow in any direction, that it could mean that the warm Blob spreads right over the surface of the Arctic no problem, despite underlying currents, and the ice on on the surface will be directly affected.

I don’t think the surface temps. in any ocean are the same as they were in even 2012, and now, in 2015, the warm water from the Pacific Blob can flow over the surface much more easily than the traditional models of ocean currents would suggest.

The Pacific Blob, and the worst Albedo reflection on record, as well as the warmest month globally every month this year so far, and the arctic ice being thinner than before anyway, could all mean that this year is nothing like previous years.

Have you never seen the beginning of Water World !   :)
.

PS. I may have missed it, but is there a site that does a daily update of North Atlantic/ Eastern Arctic SURFACE water temps?
Sorry if I missed it posted, just couldn’t find it.
Thanks

Tommy

79
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 22, 2015, 04:27:56 PM »
Neven.
Great thanks !

80
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 22, 2015, 04:20:19 PM »
Quote
"No, you've got the direction of the currents backwards. Between Severnaya Zemlya and the mainland, the flow is West to East (i.e. Atlantic to Pacific)."

.
To Nightvid Cole, and anyone else:

Ok, I see. Thanks.
Does that mean that when the last ice-bridge to Russia melts, cooler water will flow in from the Atlantic, dive under the warm surface water coming from the Pacific Blob, ultimately pushing that water back towards the Pacific?
I could see the Atlantic surface waters pushing back the Pacific Blob waters, but pushing them towards Canada and NW passage, not back out to Pacific. Those Blob waters will still push in along Northern Alaska, while the Atlantic waters will dive down (if they are cooler), and flow out into the Pacific along Russia?
Although there could be an ocean pump set up, a bit like the Gulf Stream, that pulls the warm water over the surface towards the Atlantic, while the cool waters from the Atlantic dive down.
What is the temperature of the Northern Atlantic-Arctic surface waters compared to other years?
Is there a site that updates a good graphic or chart for surface water temperatures in N. Atlantic and East Arctic? Maybe showing comparisons to other years?

I think that last ice-bridge to Russia melting is a turning point.
What do people think will happen to the intermixing surface waters when that last ice-bridge to Russia melts?

Thanks

Tommy

81
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 22, 2015, 04:08:33 PM »
Nightvid Cole

Ok, I see. Thanks.
Does that mean that when the last ice-bridge to Russia melts, cooler water will flow in from the Atlantic, dive under the warm surface water coming from the Pacific Blob, ultimately pushing that water back towards the Pacific?
I could see the Atlantic surface waters pushing back the Pacific Blob waters, but pushing them towards Canada and NW passage, not back out to Pacific. Those Blob waters will still push in along Northern Canada, while the Atlantic waters will dive down (if they are cooler), and flow out into the Pacific along Russia?
Although there could be an ocean pump set up, a bit like the Gulf Stream, that pulls the warm water over the surface towards the Atlantic, while the cool waters from the Atlantic dive down.
What is the temperature of the Northern Atlantic-Arctic surface waters compared to other years?
Is there a site that updates a good graphic or chart for surface water temperatures in N. Atlantic and East Arctic? Maybe showing comparisons to other years?

I think that last ice-bridge to Russia melting is a turning point.
What do people think will happen to the intermixing surface waters when that last ice-bridge to Russia melts?

Thanks

Tommy

82
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 22, 2015, 04:00:00 PM »
@greatdying2

Yes, thanks. the heating from the Pacific is never going to turn back now, sad but true.
I think that one of the reasons many people watch this ice melt is because of a hope that it will be dramatic enough one year to really scare regular people and governments into action, but not big enough to have any real destructive effect. People are so asleep, it is bad when we have to hope for a dramatic warning from nature, big enough to scare the world, but then a slow down for a couple of decades, long enough for humans to adjust their habits.
I think this year could be a big wake up call.

83
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 22, 2015, 03:45:45 PM »
To Slow Wing  and Juan Garcia:
And anyone else who can answer my layman questions below

Yes, it looks like the Pacific Blob has been seeping into the Arctic, the warm water staying on the surface, melting a much bigger area than equivalent date in 2012, and snaking around the edges melting those places.
What will happen when the last ice-bridge to land in Northern Siberia melts through and that Pacific Blob water on the surface breaks all the way through?
What is the state of the temperature of the waters coming on from the Atlantic?
Or does the Arctic water flow into the Atlantic, not the Atlantic into the Arctic?
If there is a current through the Arctic from the Pacific that has any strength ( warm water at the surface ), will that warm water current actually quickly pull MORE warm water into the Arctic from the Pacific Blob, once that last ice barrier  once that melts in Northern Russia, and the gates are open?

Tommy.

84
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 21, 2015, 09:12:57 PM »
To greatdying2 ---
 Thanks for explanation.

I'm not sure how the 'reply' button works here, so I may have missed something, so just replied here.

I also don't have all the terminology down, so just my layman's view here.

_______________________________
— Yes, volume (area x average depth) is for sure a better measure of the amount of ice than is area. —
_______________________________

I understand. I just wondered if there could be thinner areas in old ice (not overall volume) that could turn into 'fjords' eating into the ice-pack, and/or areas where it is thinning in the interior that could turn into fissures in the ice-pack. In other words, if there are thinner places, compared to historical data, those could be what really count if it breaks up.
Regarding 'fjords' in the ice, for example, I can see several inroads into the ice pack right now that did not appear at this time in 2012 as far as I can see.

_______________________________
-- But several complications: 1) What the media and therefore public pays attention to is extent (i.e., arbitrarily thresholded area), and public awareness may eventually lead to reduced warming.--

_______________________________

I don' think humans are going to be able to stop the melt now - see my points below. It's too late.

I could be wrong, and you have probably all talked about these already, but I am seeing several factors that were not as significant in 2012 or 2008:

1. The Pacific Blob of warm water is seeping into the Western Arctic and causing that big melt you see there in the image on the left below. That warm water would likely stay near the surface (because it is warmer), and eat around the edges as you see in the image, it is eating around Northern Siberia? there, much more than in 2012. That is the warm water from the Pacific Blob doing that. Once those ice dams that still connect to Northern Russia/Siberia melt, then that warmer water from the Pacific Blob will flow around the ice cap and melt even more. Some warm water from the Atlantic could increase the effect, although I don't know how much that is happening. I think that warm water from the Pacific Blob will be the biggest factor this year, and that the Pacific is never really going to cool down again (sad, but true).

2. The albedo reflection on Greenland seems to be the lowest on record, possibly due to all the fires in Canada and other pollution. I haven't seen a comparable Albedo graph for the Arctic, but it is safe to assume that it would be among the worst on record, as is seen in Greenland, because of all the fires, which are the most on record. This will increase the melt as you know. Worst Albedo decline  ever maybe.

3. Worldwide, every month this year was the warmest month on record (for that month), including June figures just released, and we know that warming occurs most at the poles than elsewhere, so it is logical to assume that the Arctic is in for its warmest summer overall by the end of it.

4. If any individual part of the older ice is thinner than it has ever been, there is a chance of fissures opening up that have not happened in the past, although I don't think that will show up this year, it is still a possibility.

5. All of this is caused by global warming, which is caused by massive pollution, the half of which comes from livestock farming (and the biggest water user in the coming droughts.) Electric cars are not enough :)

Just my random thoughts.

Great discussion going on here folks !
I am learning a lot !

Tommy.



85
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 20, 2015, 04:04:25 AM »
Area unimportant.
Ice depth is all that really matters, no?

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