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Messages - Ninebelowzero

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Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 21, 2018, 05:49:16 PM »
Took this loop off (to paraphrase Col. O'Neill) but coming back it's nice to see graphs with the current year Jaxa plot superimposed over the decadal plots but does the shape of the current year plots indicate a delayed refreeze this year in some areas or Arcticwide?

Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: May 18, 2018, 04:58:04 PM »
.....At least the terminal is not in the Arctic Ocean

From an ecologically point of view that's sound but the intention when conditions allow is probably to shuttle LNG East to it and max out storage capacity before the Winter sets in and at 19 knots the new fleet will make very fast passage most of the time. Conditions off Kamchatka would allow normal tankers to make final deliveries.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: March 16, 2018, 12:28:19 PM »
Interesting to see that particular cloud formation in the bottom right of this picture.

Anyone studying cloud formations in the arctic?

This is  reminiscent of some features usually seen well in to the melting season and further South. Close up it looks like a carpet pile and am I right in thinking it's streaming away from the area of high ice disintegration

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: February 13, 2018, 11:07:24 AM »
As the Earth nestles like a pea in an electromagnetic pod some scientists are beginning to suspect Earth/Solar interactivity is much more complex.

Nasa's GOLD and ICON missions will attempt to study this.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 melt season
« on: February 10, 2018, 09:15:43 PM »
< checks rear view mirror, clenches steering wheel then settles down to another 3 hours on the motorway. :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: February 06, 2018, 01:36:08 AM »
You can have it in any colour as long as it's blue!

Such a passage is indicative of the ice thickness. One imagines that there must be quite precise mapping of the ice to avoid thicker sections close to the ice breaker's rating.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: January 27, 2018, 11:19:20 PM »
The Christophe de Margerie, Boris Vilkitsky and Fedor Litke  are all shipping actively now visiting Rotterdam, Thamesport (Isle of Grain), Milford Haven, Dunkerke and Montoir.

British government denied Russian gas was being used by energy companies in the UK though one wonders about the the technicalities of storage facilities for transfer purposes and whether Russian LNG is subtely different from anyone elses LNG. Do the Brits have gas sniffers like their renowned  tea tasters? :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: December 14, 2017, 01:53:56 PM »
Christophe de Margerie exits the Northern seas with the first cargo of LNG loaded at Sabetta and is now in good trim passing Tromso at a steady 16 knots bound for Europe.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: November 24, 2017, 09:42:21 AM »
....Pity that these ships don't log ice thickness and properties along the way. Maybe they do but it just doesn't get compared with or integrated into near real-time Arctic Ocean sea ice thickness products. Or maybe most are following in the rubble track of a previous icebreaker and the data is of little interest.

Most do not send continuous navigation data either which is understandable but it would nice to occasionally see Mother Nature red in tooth and claw via a ship webcam and watch these magnificent vessels ploughing along in savage conditions at a lot less than nine below zero. :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: November 04, 2017, 01:51:34 AM »
 The Christophe de Margerie recently came back through the Northern sea route encountering the ice cover and if unescorted will probably exit Westwards.

Long term plans for the region may involve the use of these expensive icebreaker tankers as shuttles with conventional tankers making final deliveries.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: October 05, 2017, 09:10:58 AM »
Some fast ice being scoured off or detaching amidst the broken sea ice in this late season Worldview picture (28th September) showing 100km of coast.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: September 09, 2017, 02:22:25 AM »
Weather channels and such seem a bit shy of quoting maximum gust speeds now.

Have the hurricane chaser planes stopped flying?

Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: September 05, 2017, 01:41:20 PM »
She dawdled in  the main channel of the passage a few days ago (not sure if she went anywhere near the ice) before exiting the area. Current location in the Davis Stait thereabouts

The view from the starboard camera shows a leaden sea and grey skies almost identical to the starboard view from the Crystal Symphony wherever she may be so if you want an "adventure" cruise in the Arctic getting onboard a Russian icebreaker would seem the best bet.

The Xue Long is soon to exit the Coronation Gulf.

And keen eyed web browsers will note Irma is bearing down rapidly on several cruise ships. Now that would be an adventure holiday. :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: August 31, 2017, 07:02:56 PM »
They might meet the Xue Long in a short while. The Snow Dragon will be the first Chinese vessel to go through the passage. Notable in itself for a great seafaring nation  but also as a test of viability of it as a future trade route.

What they might think of a large luxury passenger vessel passing by in the other direction is open to conjecture.

Arctic background / Re: Pen Hadow's Arctic Mission
« on: August 31, 2017, 01:56:34 PM »
.....One hopes that these are just rhetorical questions but I still think this venture is in danger of defying reality....

The question of applying the laws of the sea to an Arctic Ocean with it's surface covered with several metres of ice wasn't really thought through at the time. It's a subject along with current icebreaker designs and capabilities (and those in planning) well worthy of a thread of it's own.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 13, 2017, 07:27:03 PM »
If conditions allow then the other "Snow Dragon" might get there first this year.  :)

Xue Long is an icebreaker however. In that class of vessels 50 Let Pobedy has been to the Pole already this year.

True but the Russian nuclear powered vessel can go through 5 metre ice. Xue Long is only rated for just over one metre and very slowly.  She got very close to the pole 7 years ago so the record "first" for a Chinese vessel is still there to be grasped and in itself would confirm the weakness of the ice this year  in the CAA.

In any event you she could also join a select list of ships that have been trapped by the ice in both the Arctic and Antarctic. :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 13, 2017, 05:29:28 PM »
The North Pole itself is cloud covered today, but it's starting to look as though Pen Hadow's mission to sail there this summer isn't entirely fanciful:

If conditions allow then the other "Snow Dragon" might get there first this year.  :)

She was at around 85 degrees North at last check.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 11, 2017, 05:45:09 PM »
Much more fast ice around Greenland mobilizes.
Images from 7th and 3rd August.

And there it goes like a cork from a bottle.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: August 10, 2017, 08:18:09 AM »
In terms of the Northern Sea route being open to these ships according to Yamal operations from Sabetta will be year round with the East route being utilized from July to December, The full fleet of 15 will be in operation by the end of 2020, which is a lot of LNG.

Is LNG the most "environmentally friendly" of the three fuels it can use?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 08, 2017, 12:57:11 AM »
Interesting sequence Thomas.

The thing that catches the eye about the 2017 plot is a 'channel' of thinner ice running from the Fram strait towards the Beaufort sea.

What is it?

Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: August 06, 2017, 06:09:07 AM »
.....Could one be forgiven for imagining that the  Christophe de Margerie is running astern in that photo?  Else the ice is healing up very quickly behind her, and opening obligingly ahead.....

One of a fleet of specially designed ships for operations in the high arctic.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 04, 2017, 02:05:55 PM »
Another chunk of fast (4m thick?) ice detaches.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 03, 2017, 02:26:00 PM »
There seems to be some sort of crab image forming in the Arctic

If it's an advanced case of pareidolia you have there "who ya gonna call?" :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: Volume vs extent, by the numbers
« on: July 28, 2017, 03:59:34 PM »
Good thread. Saves having to to post a "stupid question" about volume and area. :)

But  what happens when  the multiyear ice disappears from the Central Arctic? 8)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 23, 2017, 10:07:19 PM »
Explorer expects NP to be open water this summer. Plans to sail to the pole in a yacht.

A dangerous undertaking.

Much safer flying there or are these parallel (military?) contrails of the 21st July North of Greenland just a mapping artifact?

Consequences / Seed Bank Vault Flooding
« on: May 20, 2017, 06:51:15 PM »

Is there a meteorologist in the house?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 09, 2017, 08:08:36 PM »
....Folks. Full tropospheric mixing is in the house. .

Also, looking down at the Pole at the 10 hpa level a large hexagonal shaped pattern is forming. Is that something to concerned about?

Arctic sea ice / Re: Fram Export
« on: May 07, 2017, 04:56:27 PM »
Fram Export.

Great name for a Danish lager served up on a hot Sunny day in a glass topped with slushy ice. :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 17, 2017, 01:42:39 PM »
Very difficult to vector that sort of mobility into any prediction for September.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: April 01, 2017, 02:52:46 AM »
Nor this one

But a few corpses appear to have been washed up on Britains beaches in the last year.

I don't see a slowdown. I'm looking forward to Tamino's next look into the matter.

The blue plot has the appearance of rough "cobbles" for most of it's plot. There's probably a good reason for that.

The red plot is more erratic and the biggest yearly drop is about 3500 cubic km but there's no section there to compare with the plot of the last 4 years.

How indicative is the dotted average line of what will actually happen in the next few years?

Science / Re: Validation of GCM Models
« on: March 20, 2017, 06:42:21 PM »
With all of the mentioning of works that point to an under evaluation of climate highs, are there any, other than the deniers, that feel that science is overstating the dangers going forward?


In a humanocentric world when all the ice has gone will scientists be able to predict what the climate will be like not just in the Arctic but in highly populated regions elsewhere?.

Many fish species are already on the move. How many other species will become extinct?

The rest / Re: 2017 open thread
« on: March 08, 2017, 04:41:59 PM »
......I have asked 5to10 to tone it down, even though I believe he would be happier and more productive in another venue.

As icefree Summers approach expect an increase of such outbursts. Continuing to post pictures and data in such an environment would be like constantly checking your altitude after both shutes have failed.

"Truth" and "unity" are words that send shivers up my back.....

How about "Ice free Winters!"  :D

The rest / Re: 2017 open thread
« on: March 03, 2017, 02:15:18 AM »
...Forget the semantics. Admit that global unity is the only hopeful way forward if there is any chance at all. Admit and accept within your own mind that your unwillingness to do everything possible towards real change is tantamount to ensuring the living world will find no way out of what appears to be near total destruction. Can you? ...

As regards climate things might be happening a bit fast for many creatures to adapt but that won't be a first time for the Earth (which is a global unity) I'm sure.  As regards survival of humanity or any other individual species there are no guarantees over the next 10 thousand years.

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: February 14, 2017, 05:40:03 AM »
According to nullschool The Norwegians appear to have nicked the Polar jetstream.

When are they going to give it back?  8)

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: February 12, 2017, 08:53:00 PM »

Something like this?

Nearly there Jim. :)

Could you remove the 2017 plot. The several reasons for this would several. Firstly it's handy for people who don't have access to a colour printer. Secondly it provides absolute clarity about the trend itself  and finally it might help a little to stop people worrying about these figures on a daily basis.

It also takes quite a while for the unscientifically minded to process the volume of information this forum presents when first arriving here.  Some people (of whatever age) need a clear and basic explanation in the title of the graph.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: February 12, 2017, 08:08:45 PM »
Ask and ye shall receive:

That's nice and clear but might need a further  explanatory note to readers of the Daily Mail that are coming here now.

Could you also do another graph with just the 4 dotted line average plots (including the rolling  average of the current decade and extend the y axis down to zero? Any time between now and September will do.  :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: Svalbard
« on: February 09, 2017, 06:52:52 PM »
Data from the aws thereabouts currently show above freezing temperatures.

It'll be warmer there than the Midlands tonight which is a bit unsporting.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2016 (and historic) Polar Vortex/SSW effects on Ice
« on: February 08, 2017, 11:25:32 AM »
The vertical component of the jetstream and it's impact is by no means fully understood. Current image at 250hPa shows it originating below the equator and maintaining two large looping systems that were previously partially preformed by the polar jet over the Pacific end and the Barents sea.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: February 06, 2017, 08:38:56 PM »
....... Qatar at 1.5C

  :o :o :o

That's a bit further afield but to my untutored eye the sub tropical jetstream seems appears to have merged with the polar jetstream. How stable or temporary this configuration is I wouldn't hazard a guess but I imagine it would facilitate warm air moving Northwards.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: February 02, 2017, 10:25:53 AM »
but I think it is because of the direct increase in temperature caused by advection of airmass from the Pacific, may be fooling the concentration calculation. Another (worse) blow is coming in the next few days.
Below the 850 mbar temp anomaly of the last three days (ECMWF), shows very neatly the airmass entering the Arctic

Jetstream maps show a perfect loop forming over the area and in short order too.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: January 14, 2017, 10:06:31 AM »
I can picture a big ship in a 7 meter swell with 6 meter waves.

How does that work with 1-2 meter thick ice?

Arctic sea ice / Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« on: January 12, 2017, 06:25:50 PM »
So what do folk expect to see this melt season?......


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: December 12, 2016, 09:42:52 AM »
Whatever the scientific approach scientists, regardless of whoever is paying for the research, should stop talking to politicians in terms of 'mitigating' change and just tell them what we need to stop doing however politically painful it is.

Science / Re: Anthropogenic Existential Risk
« on: November 21, 2016, 05:19:43 PM »
"Let them eat cake."   :o

How about a double Carrington with fries?

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 09, 2016, 09:49:02 PM »
These new graphs by Wipneus strike me as among the most compelling climate change images I have ever seen, anywhere.  They appear to me to indicate an unprecedented state change in the global climate system.  Is that overstating the case?  I have been sharing them and will continue doing so but I want to provide the proper context for them.

If peak to trough values are maintained next year then sea ice area will drop to around 15m km2.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: November 09, 2016, 06:09:47 AM »
Showing this to the punter in the street and exclaiming "Look  what's happening in the Arctic!"


Will  garner a likely response  of horror as a malevolent suppurating presence overwhelms the seacape and oozes into Canadian waters.

Can we have the palette reversed so it looks more like toast? :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: November 02, 2016, 01:14:44 AM »
We need a Crysofear sub forum in the off topic zone perhps?  8)

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: October 27, 2016, 05:38:48 AM »
So just  three years waiting to see if the 'purple sag'  breaks four million.

That's a lot of popcorn.

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