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Messages - Ninebelowzero

Pages: 1 [2]
51
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: October 26, 2016, 02:32:41 PM »
Useful graphs.

As a purely mathmatical exercise plotting 5 year averages rather than decadal and including the 2010-2014 data plot can we extrapolate to give the 2010 decadal average a few years in advance?

52
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: October 19, 2016, 10:33:04 PM »
Well give it another 10 days and we'll know if the patient is flatlining.

53
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: October 07, 2016, 04:59:22 PM »
Current jetstream loopiness.


54
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: October 04, 2016, 02:02:18 PM »



I was thinking more "melting season, freezing season melting s..." etc :)


55
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: September 27, 2016, 11:40:13 PM »
Is the transpolar current strengthening or just carrying a lot of heat?

56
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: September 21, 2016, 05:03:02 PM »
Freezing season should start when ice coverage is increasing in all areas and vice versa for melting.

Any time in between should be 'open' season where contributors can take pot shots at each other arguing the toss.   8)

57
Consequences / Re: cruising the Northwest Passage, anyone?
« on: September 10, 2016, 07:37:49 AM »
Give it a few more years of change and there will be  big cats and trimarans regularly racing "round the pole"



58
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: September 08, 2016, 05:15:53 PM »
Quote
You can see a lot today on Worldview.

That is some CRAPPY looking ice...


The correct term would be "mullered ice"   8)

59
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: September 07, 2016, 08:53:33 AM »
The amount of 100% ice cover for the 6th looks remarkably small.

60
The rest / Re: Does the universe have "intent", or not?
« on: August 23, 2016, 10:09:51 AM »
No intent in physics. None..


In physics the intent of the Universe are the laws of physics.

Did you intend to post in this thread or did it just randomly happen?

If you have intent then the universe has intent as you are not separate from it.


61
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: August 18, 2016, 11:53:55 PM »
Patch of open water within 20 miles of the pole on Worldview current image?

62
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: August 17, 2016, 02:13:40 AM »
I've been busy all evening writing the first 2016 Arctic cyclone update. I'm not surprised to see that the same is being discussed here.   :)

Forum Melt Season fatigue syndrome has set in. 8)

63
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2102 is an outlier, ...therefore (???)
« on: August 16, 2016, 07:56:39 AM »
It's not an experiment so data shouldn't be ignored but when talking to non scientists (ie the press) the qualifier that, based on on short term observation, is just as important as any prediction.


However long term trends if they continue barring some major misunderstanding of the environment indicate a dwindling Summer ice sheet. Full stop.

64
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: August 16, 2016, 07:45:45 AM »
Ports of call are few and far between up there but one hopes they will take the opportunity to detour and put in for supplies soon.


65
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: August 14, 2016, 09:32:58 AM »
It appears that Northabout finally squeezed through much of the ice and their log says they within 50m of breaking through to ice free water. With the gale approaching they turned back and headed inland into a natural harbour. They report
Quote
Outside temp 12 degrees and forecast 14 later – Honest !! Water temp 3.8
Wind stirring up ice in those temperatures should lead to good melt.

Heading inland from the shallow waters at this point would certainly risk coming to grief on some "rubble".   ::)

66
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: August 02, 2016, 06:54:26 PM »
Anyone for a side bet on the date for the last bit of fast ice stuck on the Belgica shallows to start moving? :)

67
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: July 26, 2016, 04:50:52 PM »
Well whatever the data might be telling us the reality is being experienced by the crew of the Northabout and safe passage to them all.



Will She turn up off the West coast of Greenland a few months from now with claims to have circumvented the Arctic  in a single season?

68
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 17, 2016, 02:52:08 PM »
Steadfast refusal here to get emotionally involved over particular lumps of ice.  :)

One might find oneself "in a world of hurt" as Jesse would say later in the season.










69
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 14, 2016, 01:27:21 PM »
That is a massive change on the ECM. The forecast charts from about 6 days out would likely bring about some high melt rates. It will be interesting to see if the 06z GFS begins to follow the ECM

Do we have some jet stream predictions to go with that?

70
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: July 13, 2016, 10:52:33 AM »
.....The grainy appearance of this rubble is probably an indication that it consists of the disintegrating parts of thick ice, which supports the earlier assessment of PIOMASS of that region



Rubble is a word usually reserved for describing destroyed brickwork or fragmented stone and might translate badly. Detritus or a similar word with a wider generic use would be better here if needed at all.

71
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 05, 2016, 07:33:22 PM »





What are the odds this year of the Northern Sea Route vessels navigating directly via the Pole and thru the Fram Strait?

72
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 23, 2016, 05:22:31 PM »
Whatever we might suppose if Summer extent and volume continue to fall at some point we shall find ourselves in uncharted waters in every respect.  8)

73
The rest / Re: Arctic Café
« on: June 03, 2016, 07:39:28 PM »




74
Policy and solutions / Re: Just who's job is it to make people aware
« on: June 01, 2016, 12:09:23 AM »
"People seem to think that scientists do science to save the world"



http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07cvhrj     

76
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: May 23, 2016, 06:01:00 PM »
I thought this was interesting, NSIDC (w/ prelim F18 data). Tracking outside 2SD curve


This year it's been hovering just outside for quite a period.

Grouping each decade of results and plotting the mean  for each set of 10 might be more useful for a dynamically changing system.

77
If bridging the Bering strait is a long term plan damming it might be the sensible thing to do first.


Engineering on a massive scale.



78
Well if you were serious about doing something banning jet travel would be a good start.


https://www.flightradar24.com/57.04,-32.9/3


Only 1,500 of ~10,000 in flight usually displayed.

79
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: May 13, 2016, 11:00:25 AM »
Yesterdays image.





80
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: May 01, 2016, 07:15:36 PM »
Is anyone currently doing research on modelling heat transfer to the Arctic by the jetstream meander?


81
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: March 26, 2016, 01:25:21 PM »
Thin ice.



82
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 08, 2015, 09:54:29 PM »
Would there be a time when the amount of heat build up in the Arctic system delays refreeze.

83
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: August 12, 2015, 11:23:22 AM »
......The colour scheme is the default supplied by the University of Hamburg. Perhaps we should run a poll of a few alternatives?

Could you make it interactive and let us choose from a palette of pre-defined good color schemes as well as letting us build our own color scheme?  And let us control the speed?

;-)


That would of course be silly.

What we could do though is make a fully working 3d model of the Arctic . :)



That way if we're dumb enough to have caused the Summer Ice to disappear we can we clever enough to damn well put it back again.  :)


84
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: August 12, 2015, 11:16:20 AM »
.....A bit like this one you mean? From:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/northern-sea-route/



Showing more of the Atlantic though?


That's fine in my eyes as it shows precisely and allows the brain to appreciate the slow rotation of the ice and the constant minor changes of an 'almost living' system. A teacher with 5 minutes to spare showing it to a class via laptop and ceiling video projector on a sunny day with less than perfect window blinds whilst giving a voice over might get a few comments from the back row though.  :)

85
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: August 11, 2015, 06:45:50 PM »
.....

A bit like this one you mean? From:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/northern-sea-route/



Showing more of the Atlantic though?


With those the unnecessary use of primary colours, fiddly depiction of ice concentration and too fast a framerate change makes parts of my brain switch off.  8)

A frame rate change of 1.5 seconds to 2 seconds per day, ice concentrations using lines with a colour grading of deep blue to white for the sea would show things with more clarity I believe.

86
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: August 11, 2015, 12:50:45 PM »
Hi, thought I'd join in and post before the name changed to Arctic Sea forum.  :)

Been watching the Nsidc site for some years now and lately this one.

http://weathernews.com/GIC/data/index.html

It was meant to be using winsat-1 data and although it seems to be processing data (which goes back to 2012) from elsewhere and showed an odd hiatus last month by using the analysis box you can get a good idea of change in progress.

The retreat of 90% plus ice cover from the Russian islands at ~70 degrees seems quite fast. Any chance someone here could animate the last few weeks?




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