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Messages - josh-j

Pages: [1]
1
Science / Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« on: October 15, 2018, 10:02:44 PM »
Quick question - are the various reports here about artificial intelligence actually relating to "adapting to the Anthropocene", or do they better fit the description "charging headlong into the Anthropocene"?

 :-\ :-X

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 15, 2018, 08:37:47 PM »
I don't really get cci gfs 2m anomalies. It doesn't seem to match EC and GFS models on meteociel at all. Yeah sure there are some positive Temp 850hPa anomalies on meteociel as well, but nothing dramatic, and there are even some negative fields on the map."

In case this helps anybody, anomalies both at 2m and at 850hpa can be viewed with the same colour scale at Tropical Tidbits:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2018101506&fh=198
(height level can be selected under Thermodynamics)

As the 2m temps there seem to match CCI, whatever the reason for the difference it probably isn't to do with CCI, rather the GFS (and/or reality). Which, of course, doesn't answer your question... but I find it so much easier to look at a two charts together when they have the same colour scale. :)

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: Glossary ... for newbies and others
« on: September 21, 2018, 06:21:20 PM »
SOI - Southern Oscillation Index  ;D

4
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: September 20, 2018, 09:03:40 AM »
Gerontocrat, it seems to me that a very large number of people spend their time in jobs which are relatively pointless - the most obvious example probably being working for a company producing (let's say) the plastic toys which are inside Christmas crackers, or indeed all sorts of consumer goods companies if we could only learn to buy less and fix things. For so many other jobs, automation will eventually be able to replace people (a whole topic on its own, and a frightening one at that).

Perhaps the solution to an aging population necessitated by birth rate reduction is to stop doing and buying all this crap and instead be free to look after our families and neighbours?

I guess what I mean to say is that population and the consequences of population reduction are tied to the nature of our economic system, which values non-essebtial production yet does not reward the real human actions like caring for ones family and community.

Good job that system already needs to change then hey...!   ;D

5
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: September 15, 2018, 11:02:33 AM »
This is the sort of thing that makes me want to start sticking extinction symbols up everywhere. Tragic, all around us and yet somehow invisible.

Humanity has lost touch with nature, and blindly steps on it without a thought. I'm hopeful that collectively this can be changed; but after how many more creatures are lost?

From the page:
Quote
The symbol above represents extinction. The circle signifies the planet, while the hourglass inside serves as a warning that time is rapidly running out for many species. The world is currently undergoing a mass extinction event, and this symbol is intended to help raise awareness of the urgent need for change in order to address this crisis. Estimates are that somewhere between 30,000 and 140,000  species are becoming extinct every year in what scientists have named the Holocene, or Sixth Mass Extinction. This ongoing process of destruction is being caused by the impact of human activity. Within the next few decades approximately 50% of all species that now exist will have become extinct. Such a catastrophic loss of biodiversity is highly likely to cause widespread ecosystem collapse and consequently render the planet uninhabitable for humans.

In order to spread the message as widely as possible, please create this symbol in any location you feel able to. Thank you.

6
Walking the walk / Re: Pat yourself on the back
« on: September 06, 2018, 09:18:02 PM »
Thanks Ghoti and Etienne. I think I need to remember this thread and take notes. Perhaps it is more feasible than I thought!

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: September 04, 2018, 09:07:50 AM »

8
Walking the walk / Re: Pat yourself on the back
« on: September 03, 2018, 12:01:15 AM »
Ghoti - a 6kw array - that makes me jealous! Well done on your heat pump setup, it looks like an investment in time but nothing unachievable for a lot of houses assuming they can be adequately insulated. A few years ago the government here (UK) was going to make all new houses be built to that kind of standard, but just before it came into force it was cancelled...

My house was built around 1930 and designed to "breath"; it would need quite a lot of work to be heated by heat pump though I'm sure it could be done. So like Oren I'd be interested to know how well insulated your house is!

There must be millions houses like mine here but no real plan to help people take the sort of steps you've taken. The people who can't afford to do so include the people stuck in fuel poverty because their leaky homes use tons of gas to heat...

Anyway this is the Pat Yourself on the back thread so: (!)

A while ago I posted about trying not to use heating over winter. I'm happy to say that my own slightly reckless venture to reduce emissions was very successful - I didn't freeze to death! Lowest temperature inside the house was about 3c but more often about 6-8c if I remember correctly. That seems pretty good considering the "Beast From the East" we had in the UK, outside temperatures down to about -6c or so at night. Even my pipes didn't freeze (I think it was close) But I needed a ridiculous amount of warm layers, sleeping bag, sleeping bag plus warm bedding for sleep, and so on. Nevertheless, this is supposed to be an urgent problem, right?  ;D :o

Same again this winter :) The things you can do when you're single and living on your own.... lol :)

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: August 30, 2018, 09:35:24 PM »
It's only a matter of time.  Today's AMSR2 should be alarming to anyone.  Pretty clear we only have a couple years left.  And if something dramatic and unexpected happens...

Not to say that I disagree, more that I don't understand - but is it not the case that extent and volume are higher this year than 2012 when it looked like collapse could be imminent? I'm sure we could get unlucky any time soon and sooner or later yes the inevitable will happen, but a couple of years left?

I've looked at the recent AMSR2 images and don't know enough to know whether I should be alarmed, but from a simplistic novice perspective things look better this year than they have in (some) past years - acknowledging of course the relentless downward spiral.

10
Things won't stay ordinary. But that doesnt mean things will change in the way you expect either. We all know the trends but this is a complex system. I'm sure something dramatic could happen that gives us a winter BOE but that doesnt mean it will happen any time soon. It might be reasonable to predict it as a possibility but not assume it is near-certain to happen within a few decades.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: August 01, 2018, 07:02:31 PM »
A scenario of year-round ice-free Arctic can only be reached (IMO) by further a northward reach of the warm ocean currents.
I keep reading this dreamy misconception everywhere. People seem to be forgetting about the fact that the quantity of heat energy required to melt 1kg of ice (of just below freezing) to 1kg of water (of just above freezing) would raise the temperature of that same 1 kg of water to 80 degrees Celsius. This means that as soon as ice is gone, and there is heat energy (i.e. Sunlight), the oceans will be very hot at the surface (provided that surface T will also keep on rising as it does) all around the Arctic circle. It already is super anomalously warm, by the way. So when the sun is gone at the polar caps, all it needs is a little flow from warmer lower ocean currents to keep it from freezing up, and/or surface winds blowing the warmer (sun-heated) waters Northwards. Considering all the additional feedbacks, I'd say year round ice free poles could be a reality around 2035 at the very latest.

But water is not just stagnant in the Arctic and waiting to warm. While its true that a lot more heat can go into the water once there's no ice to melt, its also the case that the worlds oceans are very large, very deep, and circulating. I find it hard to believe that mainstream science is so wrong on the timescales for a year-round BOE. I'm not saying the current mainstream predictions are gospel and won't change, but 2035 is so at odds with the mainstream view that I find it hard to accept. No ice in winter also means more can escape, does it not? (No really, correct me if I'm wrong - I'm no expert!)

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 30, 2018, 11:29:49 PM »
4. WOW; 200 more years before the arctic could go ice free for the whole year. Yes, greenland may create a local effect which allows for some ice formation to its north for longer than the rest of the arctic but in general this idea is delusionally conservative. A simple extrapolation of current volume trends puts that timeline off by at least 150 years...without any lag and without any continued emission.
(My bold)

I'm not sure that a simple extrapolation of the trend is necessarily correct when talking about a complex system. Various posters here have highlighted the "slow decline" theory in which the decline slows because more open ocean in summer means more space for ice to grow in winter.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 15, 2018, 06:44:36 PM »
He may be referring to most places in Siberia, too. When i arrived, say, to Langepas in 1986, very next winter i sometimes walked through as low as -56°C air. Freezes your eyes, no joke. While summer-time, sometimes it got up to ~35°C. However, this all proves nothing, and is in fact off-topic. The graphic presented was about temperature _anomalies_. This means, all the drastic seasonal temp difference was already accounted for; all the wild colors are "on top" of it.

I dont dispute anything in the general discussion here, but wouldnt the anomaly be relative to the average for the particular time of year - and therefore not on top of whatever fleeting anomalies might be common in the area? (In other words, averaging out various warm and cold times in a location removes the variability and just gives one figure lying somewhere in the middle).

If the answer is more complicated than that I'll take the thought over to the Stupid Questions thread of course.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: How soon could we go ice free?
« on: June 15, 2018, 02:43:46 PM »
If the DMI modeled ice thickness has any validity, you should be very happy since the ice volume is significantly higher than the past few years at this date. As a result, it is doubtful the arctic will be ice free this year (or any year in the foreseeable future). Also, the NW passage is not likely to open this year. Just my guess.

Archimid beat me to it but there is a massive difference between "this year" and "any year in the foreseeable future". I agree with you regarding the former, but certainly not the latter - and I doubt many scientists studying the ice would agree either.

15
Policy and solutions / Re: Aviation
« on: June 09, 2018, 11:32:58 PM »
One option to building additional runways at crowded city airports is to provide fast transportation to/from other nearby, less used airports....

https://twitter.com/FutureTravelX/status/1004313360421310464

Another option is to fly less (particularly frequent fliers), and build less. That seems more sensible than building new infrastructure in order to encourage more aviation growth incompatible even with existing climate goals.

16
6) Keeping a detached cold blooded scientist perspective. We are privileged to witness a crucial turning point in the history of Life (not just the bloody hominins).

That does it for me. It may be very worrying but its also amazing and genuinely fascinating to see first hand.

Other things: bringing it up in conversation; trying to spread the message (and remembering that you never know how many people end up taking it to heart); energetically trying to align ones own lifestyle with what needs to be done by everybody - low carbon, etc.

No doubt you are not alone, GW.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 13, 2018, 02:35:56 PM »
Quote from: litesong
Its best to consider that the solar TSI has been languid for 50 years & low for 11+ years (including a 3+ year period, setting a 100 year record low radiation level). Yet, global sea ice continues near its least quantities.

Forgive the straying off topic but just one question for litesong - I don't see a languid 50 years in kiwichick's link. But I don't know much about the subject; could you link your source?

18
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: May 10, 2018, 02:27:49 PM »
Three newspapers confront one challenge: Sea-level rise is real, South Florida needs all hands on deck — now

Now that is heartening to see! Excellent article.

19
Science / Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: April 27, 2018, 11:51:29 PM »
It is quite a thing to look at that measurement knowing that it is the highest level of CO2 ppm for at least 800,000 years.

Very true - and it's no abstract thing either, being in each breath we take.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: April 12, 2018, 11:34:50 PM »
Wasn’t 2000 in the 20th century?

D'oh!  ::) Carry on!  :-X

Edit: Apologies, Dan B.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: April 12, 2018, 06:19:50 PM »
Since the turn of the century, the coolest summers have been 2014, 17, and 13, which showed in higher ice minima.

Excuse me for sticking my nose in here, but the monthly temperature rankings at Zach's site look more like showing that 2000 had the coolest summer this century so far. Undoubtedly a bit of a cooler reoccurrence recently but nevertheless..

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: Abrupt sea ice loss
« on: April 05, 2018, 09:11:32 AM »
[I am not into modelling but the results I have seen show about 1-2-(at most 3) degree warming for NH midlatitudes for the next 20-30 yrs with the ice gone (from current levels). That is managable.
I have stated before that I see the overpopulation of Africa a much bigger problem. With twice as many people in 30-40 yrs than now, higher temps, changed rain-patterns, it would be a miracle if there would not be civil wars and mass exodus out of that continent...

3 degree warming at mid-latitudes is manageable? I suppose it depends what you mean by manageable but that seems a stretch.  What would such a rise correspond to as a global temperature anomaly?

Your argument around Africa seems plausible but I think that the forced migration and so on in various regions (not just Africa) could easily cause very serious problems to other countries. Plus food imports...

None of that means that everybody will die, of course. So I would be  step to know what your definition of "manageable" is as that seems key.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: February 23, 2018, 07:27:11 PM »
Thanks Tor. I've been trying to record some of the winter phenomena for others here to see. I thought it might be nice for people here who don't have a cold winter.

Thanks for sharing this Pmt, it looks beautiful. I often feel I should have been born somewhere colder - though I suppose even here in the UK it was colder back when I was born - and I think this amazing photo confirms that!

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 07, 2018, 10:42:16 PM »
Why is it that the lowest extent is during January and the highest during the summer months on the above graph?

That graph is for global sea ice, so includes both Arctic and Antarctic sea ice. So the low period is during the antarctic summer.  :)

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: January 31, 2018, 07:47:53 PM »
The sea ice models already have ice movement built into their models. 

But perhaps not the acceleration of said movement.  ;)

How did you derive that answer, Neven?

I would humbly suggest that Neven's answer is derived from the paper he linked to. :)

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: January 02, 2018, 09:05:57 AM »
Hi Emil,

I can't speak for others, but it might be worth noting that PIOMAS volume was at a record low for the first half of 2017 as the graph shows. So I think it is not as simple as saying that volume is up from last year. I suppose it depends on which part of 2017 you're talking about!

27
Walking the walk / Re: Pat yourself on the back
« on: December 01, 2017, 07:49:18 PM »
Thanks Etienne, that is a very interesting study. I particularly like the details about older furniture design like winged or hooded chairs.

My house is very badly laid out for heat because previous owners removed dividing walls and made the whole ground floor open-plan. If I live here long enough I might reinstate the old walls so I can trap heat in the living room.


28
Walking the walk / Re: Pat yourself on the back
« on: November 29, 2017, 07:54:20 PM »
This could be a good idea if it can encourage others to take steps too. But I don't want to make myself feel like I'm doing enough!

Anyway, I started taking a flask and cup to work for exactly the same reason. There are drinks machines in my office disposing endless plastic cups (for free) and half of them end up in the general waste so yeah, not good.

This year I am trying to see how much gas I can save by not heating my house (as low temperature as I can manage). I live in northern England and while its no Arctic, it can get pretty chilly (currently just below freezing outside) and my house is old. So it is now 8-9c inside the house. I do not recommend people go to this extreme (especially depending on health) but it has made me think about how what we consider as essential are really luxuries if we were really to treat climate change with the urgency it deserves. I have a warm sleeping bag wrapped around me and wearing 6 layers of clothes because I'm sitting at my desk. Only my hands are cold... :) (also, I've been using this as a way to talk about the environment to my work colleagues - it is lighthearted as they think I'm mad, but it means I can talk about things like decarbonisation!)

29
The rest / Re: Is Degrowth necessary for Decarbonization ?
« on: October 30, 2017, 09:25:43 PM »
Quote
The above is based on internet searches and a bit of spreadsheet work - by an amateur. Is there any professional/academic work along these lines - or is this blocked by scientific reticence? I know there are degrowth conferences but these don't seem to have a high profile.

I don't know about published papers, but Kevin Anderson has been pretty clear in his many presentations on climate change over the years that climate targets built around "green growth" and so on are not compatible with scientific reality. I get the feeling that he is one of the rarer voices in the scientific community saying so, but he would probably respond saying that other scientists would agree privately but not publicly. He is, I think, blazing an important trail.

His website is here, and several of his talks are on YouTube.

Incidentally it was Anderson, among others, who really kickstarted my journey into climate awareness. He doesn't seem to pull many punches.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: October 17, 2017, 04:43:36 PM »
Quote
I'll continue to hope that all winter, but I'm feeling pessimistic. Oct. 3 is pretty early for a last picture of the season from O-Buoy 14. Last year we had some from November, though the battery situation may have been different at that time. If it wakes up again next spring I think I'm going to have to throw a party to celebrate.

The batteries are not really holding much charge now given that the buoy was turning off regularly in the dark as winter has drawn in, so I'm optimistic that the early loss of images is due to the batteries only.

The question is what happens to the rest of the hardware in the long cold I suppose! Fingers crossed.

31
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: August 04, 2017, 06:01:31 PM »
Extreme heat warnings issued in Europe as temperatures pass 40C

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/04/extreme-heat-warnings-issued-europe-temperatures-pass-40c

Quote
Eleven southern and central European countries have issued extreme heat warnings amid a brutal heatwave nicknamed Lucifer, with residents and tourists urged to take precautions and scientists warning worse could be still to come.

...

The highest temperature on Thursday was 42C in Cordoba, Spain, and Catania, Italy. Split in Croatia also hit 42.3C on Wednesday. The spell is forecast to peak at the weekend with temperatures of 46C or higher in Italy and parts of the Balkans.

...

Writing in the journal Environmental Research Letters, the scientists said if a similar “mega-heatwave” to that of 2003 were to occur at the end of the century, when average temperatures are widely expected to be noticeably higher after decades of global warming, temperatures could pass 50c.

Concerning note at the end stating there is forecasted to be a fall in agricultural production in Italy as a result of this heatwave.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: Operation IceBridge - Arctic Spring 2017
« on: July 29, 2017, 12:13:12 PM »
Where global warming gets real: inside Nasa’s mission to the north pole

Thanks Andre, that was a brilliant article!

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: June 17, 2017, 09:56:50 PM »
The correlation between footprints and CO2 spike... I mean could it be? That is amazing!

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: June 02, 2017, 02:48:42 PM »
The odd bouncy temperatures today are mirrored by bouncing battery voltages, high battery current and power draw. Obuoy 14 is struggling to stay alive I think.

High current draw could be due to extra sensors turning on; Ozone charts started updating on June 1st with a corresponding current draw for that in the Loads section :)

I'm more attached to this persistent little buoy than I ever was to the Mars rovers!

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: How soon could we go ice free?
« on: May 30, 2017, 07:55:46 PM »
I'm really sorry for my posting. It's just that im terrified a  BOE could really destabilise the planet. That and climate change seems to be here already and speeding things up.

I really don't think we have a year left due to abrupt warming and some runaway effects stacking up.

I'm no expert but I don't think its inevitable that we will have a BOE this year, far from it - let alone that having one would immediately end our civilisation. Who knows, maybe there is a chance of all that happening in one year... but surely a low chance. The BOE itself could happen if we are unlucky, judging by ice volumes, but nothing is certain.

Try to change our world for the better; don't wallow in despair to the point of paralysis.

The only certainty is that if all of humanity had your level of concern, we'd already be well on our way to fixing the problem.

36
Policy and solutions / Re: The Cost to Mitigate Climate Change
« on: May 29, 2017, 09:40:05 PM »
Wili and Rboyd are spot on in my opinion. This graph only represents technological solutions, and I am not convinced technical measures alone are enough. In fact it seems to me that technical measures are far from enough, and what we really need is a restructure of the way the economy works so that it doesn't require constant growth.

That said this is still important and we need all the solutions we can get. It just seems as though there should be another huge bar in the graph representing efficiency not in technical products, but in how we actually buy and use things in the first place. Efficiency savings through not producing and trading millions of plastic bottles filled with water, through sitting under electric heaters in cold weather outside bars, through structuring society in a way that means people have to commute long distances in polluting vehicles to get to work, and on and on and.....

37
Eric's latest and probably last comment on the Stoat blog also confuses matters further, because first he dismisses Rob's critical analysis as "nonsense", but then he takes his time to repeat that "we assume, in effect, that most of the trend in Z200 is "natural variability"."

Which is exactly the assumption that many here have expressed serious doubts about.
(emphasis mine)

I think it is worth taking the bolded section above in context:

Quote from: Eric Stein
There is one aspect that might be worth discussing, which is that we assume, in effect, that most of the the trend in z200 is “natural variability”. (We don’t actually assume it — that’s a result of the analysis, but in the end it amounts to the same thing, pretty much). But this doesn’t come out of nowhere! it comes largely from our previous work published in 2014, showing that the trend in z200 is related to tropical forcing.

The 2014 paper is, I believe, the following:

Ding, Q. H. et al. Tropical forcing of the recent rapid Arctic warming in northeastern Canada and Greenland. Nature 509, 209-212 (2014).

From the abstract:
Quote
Here we show that the recent warming in this region is strongly associated with a negative trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation, which is a response to anomalous Rossby wave-train activity originating in the tropical Pacific. Atmospheric model experiments forced by prescribed tropical sea surface temperatures simulate the observed circulation changes and associated tropospheric and surface warming over northeastern Canada and Greenland. Experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (ref. 16) models with prescribed anthropogenic forcing show no similar circulation changes related to the North Atlantic Oscillation or associated tropospheric warming. This suggests that a substantial portion of recent warming in the northeastern Canada and Greenland sector of the Arctic arises from unforced natural variability.

I think if we have doubts about an assumption of natural variability in Z200 (I have no idea myself), it might worth looking at this paper, not just the 2017 one. I could not find it at a glance outside of the paid Nature publication however.

38
If I am reading the original graph correctly, it is not indicating a slowdown at all.

This is easy to misinterpret because it shows the anomaly on a yearly basis, which is still increasing.

So, while there appears to have been a sharper year-on-year increase previously, we are still at the maximum per year change.

Even if the graph were to completely flatten out, we would still be dropping per year at the maximum observed rate of ~ 750 k km^2

If you're referring to Tamino's graph, I think it is showing the cumulative anomaly, not the rate of change. So an anomaly of -1 would mean 1 less than normal. not a rate of change of -1 per unit of time.

39
The forum / Re: Neven's "TIP JAR"
« on: March 08, 2017, 11:48:46 PM »
Thanks for all your hard work Neven - all the ASIs (ASIF, ASIB and ASIG) are great resources and I check this forum daily so its probably about time I paid my dues. :)

40
The rest / Re: 2017 open thread
« on: March 02, 2017, 02:49:04 PM »
Cid, I will choose to live my life in such a way that I can die with the satisfaction of knowing I tried all I could to prevent or limit a terrible catastrophe and with hope for the goodness of human nature.

If we fail then so be it. But to go to the grave having done sod all to attempt to limit such a disaster as we are facing is a terrible thought to my mind. Even if it were clear that this is inevitable (I do not think it is really even possible to know that at this point, even though the prospects aren't great), I would still gain far more satisfaction in my life from actually trying to do something about it anyway, and die happier knowing I represented the final burning flame of human optimism for all that we love.

I do not wish to go quietly into the night

41
The rest / Re: 2017 open thread
« on: March 01, 2017, 01:07:58 AM »
Nevertheless 5to10 is right; giving up on the assumption that nothing will work misses the potential we humans have to act differently.

Collective action won't come about through data alone. People need to grasp the issue emotionally and also be able to see a way forward so as to be moved to action rather than denial or despair. It's something I expect many posters here have experienced; the feeling of knowing what is coming while also continuing 'normal' life.

But if 'our' knowledge was more widely understood, this despair aspect would drop away and be replaced with hope. Even if we couldn't ultimately succeed, we would be part of a heroic effort, and I think that is a common trait that could be awoken in most people.

As to how this could be done... I wonder how constrained reporters are by their rich media-mogul bosses?

This is a great discussion - and 5to10, you certainly woke me up just now (right before bed  ;D )

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic temperature layers and inversions
« on: February 23, 2017, 07:11:35 PM »
@crandles
I am still working toward understanding this better myself. I believe what is being said is that as the lower level heats and reverses the initial inversion, then a positive feedback is started and the heat is radiated downward after that point, instead of cooling into space.

My reading of the paper is that the inversion is a positive factor in surface warming amplification. Therefore to my mind, once the inversion is lost the amplification could reduce.

As the paper says:

Quote
"The ability of the Arctic wintertime clear-sky atmosphere to cool to space decreases with inversion strength."

Of course there are many more than this single factor in Arctic warming amplification and clearly the ongoing (?) weakening of the inversion is not saving the Arctic so far. But my non-expert reading is that at least for this one specific feedback, increased warming might actually reduce the feedback as the inversion strength weakens.

I'd be curious to know the thoughts of you intelligent people on this.  :)

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic temperature layers and inversions
« on: February 19, 2017, 12:26:33 AM »
Well we are already experiencing the first consequences of the ground-level warming surely. The next question is how a lack of inversion would affect atmospheric dynamics. Note one of Aslan's earlier links (http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v4/n11/full/ngeo1285.html) which suggests the temperature inversion had an amplifying effect on warming - could that amplification be lost?

Even if so, I suppose it is replaced by warming from the increased atmospheric moisture content. But these are just idle musings (I have no knowledge but am trying to learn).

I am particularly interested in whether the loss of inversion itself (rather than just the temperature rise) would have effects on weather patterns locally and more widely in the winter..?

Thanks for this Aslan.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: February 18, 2017, 11:10:24 PM »
Thank you very much Crandles, much obliged! And thanks to Jim also. :)

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: February 18, 2017, 05:22:56 PM »
Here is my stupid question:

DMI 80n graph page says the data is derived from the ECMWF operational model. I can see in the older graph years that ERA40 was used but I don't know what the "operational model" is now.

Basically I want to get the data behind the DMI 80N graph but am struggling to find out where to look. I'm not sure if the values calculated by DMI are available somewhere but cannot see anywhere to obtain from their site?

Thanks for any help :)

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 16, 2017, 09:04:40 PM »
When I look at the DMI 80N since the beginning of 2016 I count 9 bricks.  The bottom temp simply has not been able to break through 247 in 9 tries.

Indeed DMI 80N has not dropped below the green line (in winter) since December 2015. :o

I can't see any year other than 2016 that has the property of being always above average in DMI 80N (well, there is also 2017 so far..). However I don't have the knowledge to make my speculation worth much if I was to start predicting next winter!

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: February 14, 2017, 06:54:57 PM »
A hearty "welcome back" to OBuoy 14, and thank you to everyone for their interesting posts in this thread. I followed 14's journey through the melt season and was sad when it finally turned off.

Well done to the buoy for making it through, and to whoever was involved in constructing these buoys.  :)

48
Science / Re: Scientists scramble to safeguard data ahead of 'scrubbers'
« on: December 16, 2016, 05:13:51 PM »
Hopefully on-topic enough - certainly a good counter to the (justifiably, IMO) rather doom-laden original post:

Jerry Brown strikes defiant tone: ‘California will launch its own damn satellite’


Quote
Gov. Jerry Brown, rallying a room of scientists Wednesday with his most heated rhetoric yet on the topic, suggested California would defy the federal government should President-elect Donald Trump impede the state’s efforts to thwart climate change.
Quote
He said if the federal government “starts messing with” the state’s renowned science facilities, such as Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, “I am the president of the Board of Regents. I am going to say, ‘Keep your hands off. That laboratory is going to pursue good science.’ ”

The speech is available on YouTube here (and is firey stuff):




[Thanks to Neven and all who contribute here for such an enlightening forum  :)]

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